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Tuesday recap
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Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
If the administration’s strategy to keep oil prices down is to manipulate the market by making false and/or vague statements on social media about the war then well…points for creativity
Just when cooling oil prices promised a bit of relief to the market, the US CPI report threatens to revive inflation fears. #inflation #CPI #StockMarket #OilShock #crudeoil #macro #trading https://t.co/2xB2LsqJuF
China’s exports SURGED by 21.8% in the first 2 months of 2026. Trump’s international trade war is BACKFIRING. Thanks to Trump, CHINA IS WINNING THE TRADE WAR, BIG-TIME. https://t.co/h0s5xlnA1N
China’s Export Machine Keeps Pumping Ahead of Trump Visit—After record trade surplus in 2025, new figures suggest tensions will persist @LandersWSJ @TByGraceZhu https://t.co/siI2mnk49t https://t.co/siI2mnk49t
Good morning (still in Hanoi), @NatixisResearch @natixis published our Global Cross-Expertise overnight & please take a read for our views on: Oil & gas Metals & Precious Metals Macro Impact (Asia, Middle East, Europe, US & LatAm) Financial Market Impact (equities, rates, FX).
"Beijing is not allergic to spending. It is just not confident about spending that gives households too much autonomy over how to use the money." --@ZichenWanghere Very good read on the need for rural pension reform, among other things https://t.co/HMmzkQ9ZMn https://t.co/sEMkJotQeP
#HankeInflationDashboard: By my measurements, this week's top 5 inflators are: 🇻🇪Venezuela — 668.1%/yr 🇰🇵North Korea — 111.3%/yr 🇮🇷Iran— 66.2%/yr 🇱🇾Libya — 65.9%/yr 🇨🇺Cuba — 47.4%/yr https://t.co/hmt2ECWysz
Seoul is really getting squeezed - (1) U.S. trade policy squeezing its competitiveness, (2) U.S. policy in the Middle East squeezing its energy security, and now (3) U.S. warfighting requirements squeezing USFK assets. It's fine to lawyer this or that...
WHEN THE ARTERY THAT SUPPLIES A FIFTH OF GLOBAL OIL NEEDS, THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, IS WEAPONISED. Iran says it won’t let traffic through, bills its continued closure as victory. US wants to reopen it, proposes naval escorts if necessary. Here’s Iran’s Araghchi...
G7 head of state and/or government will hold a video call Wednesday to discuss the impact of the Third Gulf War, particularly around the “energy situation” and the Strait of Hormuz. The call is scheduled for 2pm GMT. I doubt this...
“We’re in a Schrodinger’s tariff right now.” One proclamation says “a 10% tariff on the rest of the world,” the next post says “a 15% tariff literally effective immediately,” then the White House pretends he never said it. The crack team...
Industrial policy FTW: "China's Tariff-Defying Export Boom Leaves Its Factory Workers Behind: Workers who powered a tariff-defying boom tell a grim story of falling wages and vanishing jobs." https://t.co/cIfJHANUgW https://t.co/ZIN1PXUzwE
Our World in Data is usually one of the best sites on the internet, but this chart is kind of garbage. It just assumes slow fertility drops and low growth in Africa, when the first assumption is being falsified by...
Macro: leveraged basis/swap trades in USTs unwind as repo stress. Drivers: regulation, supply surge, margin calls. Risk: disorderly USTs and deleveraging. Trade: reduce duration. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Want to understand what's going on with rising oil prices and Iran? I gave a full breakdown on @tbpn. The basics: • There is absolutely no substitute for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, whether through rapid victory or through a well-protected convoy. •...
US Navy refusing to escort commercial ships thru the Strait. Saying the risk is too high. Is the end of the war not as close as some infer? Is supply chain risk escalating? Can a prolonged war fracture some of...
Foreign Minister of Iran claiming current oil disruption is 4-20x more severe than previous oil crises https://t.co/33VOGTSEeb
#BrazilWatch🇧🇷: Brazil's inflation is 4.4%/yr. That's ABOVE its 3.0% inflation target. Brazil’s M4 is growing at 9.4%/yr. That is ABOVE Hanke’s Golden Growth Rate of 7.1%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its 3.0%/yr inflation target. INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY....
Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said Tuesday he was hopeful that issues surrounding the Federal Reserve would be resolved, allowing Kevin Warsh’s nomination as central bank chair to move forward. https://t.co/7hUfth4Lf9
Iran. Laying mines in the Strait. Is there a point of too many mines that merchant shipping will avoid Hormuz post war? Time required to remove? Who will do it? Will the maritime risks force new ways to serve the...
$SPX - The rally continued today until it hit the 100 day MA, but then we had a bearish reversal and closed the day lower. The bottom isn't confirmed yet so there may still be a lower low this week....
Not an overly active global macro calendar for tomorrow, but an important one. Top of the list is the February #CPI release. Will also watch that US monthly budget statement and 10-year t-note sale. Japan has some worthy data as well...
Assuming oil and commodity prices stay anywhere remotely close to current, bonds have a big problem. You should read @fejau_inc's piece.
The long-term outlook for the US dollar hasn’t changed. We remain in a major downtrend — something worth remembering during brief rallies like the one we just saw. The dollar is still sitting at a critical level, and these bouts of strength...
President @Rodrigo_PazP is attempting to lead #Bolivia out of an economic crisis and realign the country's foreign policy with Washington after two decades of socialist rule. Our interview with him from #ShieldoftheAmericas on Sunday. @sergiomendoza01 https://t.co/wmaCT239QF
Argentina’s inflation comes in at a RED HOT 32.4%/yr. Argentina’s money supply (M3) is growing at 38.7%/yr. That's WELL ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 14.8%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its de facto 10%/yr inflation target. INFLATION = PRES. MILEI'S ACHILLES...
Taking a look back to the 1930’s, we can see the various oil spikes over time. The top panel shows the 5-year CAPE ratio, and the bottom panel shows nominal oil prices in brown, and inflation-adjusted oil prices in purple...
Oil prices are spiking as the frozen Straits of Hormuz has become the epicenter of the conflict. As of Sunday night’s futures open, WTI futures are trading at $108, which could make the...
With the conflict in Iran becoming seemingly more contracted, the markets seem to be pricing in a less benign outcome despite what has been a Goldilocks backdrop of robust earnings growth, rising margins and productivity, hefty capex spending, an easing...
President Trump’s Special Envoy for Peace Steve Witkoff spoke to us in a wide ranging interview about how the war in Iran started, what’s at stake and what’s next for Russia/Ukraine talks https://t.co/wsZJtL7srT
Required reading. Trump and Israel, in their infinite militant wisdom, have put Iran in a stronger position now than they were when the “combat operations” (can’t say “war”) started.
Could China’s rare earth supplies dictate how long US strikes on Iran go on? ..Washington had only two months of rare earths inventory, issue to dominate talks between Trump, Chinese President Xi. No duh. Not "Washington", dozens of US defind companies... https://t.co/NcUbH1CgJX
Crude Oil has to be impossible to trade right now Red = Transportation Secretary Chris Wright says the Navy escorted a ship through the Strait of Hormuz, -8.3% Blue = Social Media post deleted, +5.49% Green = repost below, potential mines in the...
As of Monday, millionaires are officially paying less taxes than the rest of us. https://t.co/x9lEkEmUoR
Container Shipping Diversions Surge 360% Amid Hormuz Closure. And the inland logistics to move all the loaded and empty containers? Including customs https://t.co/xjirN7c7am
Uh. This would be REALLY bad. Up until now, traffic through the Strait has been functionally halted but it isn’t exactly *closed*, ships can are some are taking the risk. If Iran successfully mines the Strait, it’s *closed* closed.
The Strait of Hormuz carries 20% of global oil demand. It's still closed. OPEC+ pledged 206K bpd in April. Middle East producers are cutting because storage is full. Supply math doesn't work when the pipe is shut. https://t.co/EMaJvlSk4u
‼️$100 oil prices have a surprisingly modest impact on the US economy: A persistent oil shock through 2027 would push headline inflation up +0.7 percentage points at peak, while core inflation and unemployment each rise just +0.1 percentage points. Real GDP effect...
Hormuz Disruptions, US Navy Escort Plans (or lack of) and Impact on Global Trade 1⃣Strait of Hormuz Update: March 10, 2026 2⃣Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Caine Statement on Escorts 3⃣UNCTAD Report on Hormuz Shipping Disruptions Video: https://t.co/vS32XQeQDb https://t.co/ZfQwkBUMGW
Last week, Trump threatened to cut off trade with Spain over the use of military bases against Iran. It’s clear he didn’t realize that Spain is 1 of 12 countries for which the US has a positive trade balance. TRUMP = SHOOTS...
U.S. Navy escorts its first tanker through the Strait of Hormuz. #corn & #wheat prices follow crude oil lower, but #soybeans hang onto modest gains on hopes we'll get final RVOs from EPA any day, with possible exports to China....
A lot of businesses quietly struggled the last few years. Valuations came down. Growth slowed. But few people wanted to call it what it was. A silent recession. GDP technically grew, but inflation grew faster. Now the cycle may be shifting. And the operators positioning today could...
Doesn't seem like there's a lot of Oil/LNG moving through the Strait of Hormuz at all https://t.co/5QrGSihDEA
US oil prices fall over -16% on the day and officially drop below $80/barrel. Geopolitical risk premiums are being rapidly priced-out. The oil market says the war is ending.
Oil market isn't going the way Iran hoped. Amazing what the Saudi/UAE pipelines can do, plus the (very clear) threat of SPR release. Plus, oil crisis are defined by price x duration. Without a feared long disruption, investors aren't chasing oil futures...
When asked whether the US bombed an Iranian elementary school, Trump replied: “No. In my opinion and based on what I’ve seen, that was done by Iran.” But the NYT and other sources report that it was a U.S. Tomahawk strike. https://t.co/dyjpwhA9vS
The FT reports that at the end of the day, the regime in Iran will probably remain standing and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is positioned to make the regime more hardline. HAVE TRUMP AND NETANYAHU OPENED THE DOOR FOR THE...
Brent becomes extremely volatile amid confusion about war’s duration Brent futures traded in a record daily range of more than $35 per barrel on March 9, as traders reacted to conflicting signals about the closure of the Strait of Hormuz...
This Bloomberg headline crossing now may explain the new downturn in crude oil prices (repost) --- *US NAVY ESCORTED AN OIL TANKER THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ
*US OIL PRICES EXTEND DECLINE, FALL 15% TO TRADE NEAR $80/BBL April 2026 WTI futures are now down ~32% since Sunday night's peak https://t.co/9QugACQ3Q0
