China's March Exports Strong Despite Modest Trade Surplus
China's March trade numbers are stronger than they appear at first glance. Strong imports pulled down the trade surplus, but export performance was actually strong -- last year's March base created a high hurdle for the y/y comparisons 1/ many https://t.co/OmqlCGNNNd
Rising Deficits Make Diesel Rationing Inevitable
As deficits grow, rationing becomes unavoidable—especially for diesel, writes @markfny Governments can delay it—but not stop it. #Oil #Energy #Geopolitics
US Hormuz Blockade Drives Tankers to Atlantic, Rates Surge
US blockade of Hormuz will steer more tankers toward Atlantic ▶️BRS expects ‘little or no commercial traffic in the strait for the foreseeable future’; sentiment ‘remains under pressure’ as more tonnage heads to Atlantic basin ▶️Aframax rates are still historically high but...
China’s Real Focus: Gulf Trade, Not Iranian Oil
China may buy Iran’s oil—but its real bet is the Gulf, writes @glcarlstrom Far more trade, far more investment. No way Beijing risks that for a few discounted barrels. #Oil #China #Geopolitics
Rising Chinese Imports Squeeze Margins, Price Hikes Looming
China imports rose +23%YoY for Q1 2026 and March rose 28%YoY. Meanwhile, exports slowed to 2.5%YoY. In other words, Asia terms of trade is deteriorating and even is supposedly immune but you can see from PPI and now imports that costs...
Media Misstates Rial, Actually Up 8% Since War
Since Trump's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, frequent media reports indicate that the value of the rial has plunged. WRONG. Today, the rial fell just 0.3% vs the USD. Since the US-Israeli war on Iran, the rial has gained 8%...
TLT Trading Volume Hits Three-Year Low, Signaling Waning Bond Interest
TLT is a good proxy for bond market interest. And interest (volume) is now at a 3+ year low. * $TLT's volume today was 12.720M shares, the lowest daily volume since January 2023 (and this INCLUDES holidays) * The 5-day average volume...
North Korean Won Plummets 62%, World's 2nd Worst Currency
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the North Korean won ranks as the WORLD'S 2ND WORST CURRENCY. The won has depreciated by 62% against the USD over the past year. THE COLLAPSE OF THE WON = THE WORLD'S MOST UNDERREPORTED CURRENCY STORY. https://t.co/dxHRFaYUhS
Hormuz Blockade Hits Malaysian SMEs With Triple Cost Surge
The Hormuz blockade is NOT a Middle East story for Malaysian SMEs. It’s an input cost problem on top of one you’re already managing. Most SME supply chains price raw materials in USD. When oil spikes, freight follows. When global risk...
Iran Conflict Boosts Copper Demand Amid Chile Production Dip
Chile — the Saudi Arabia of copper — is already seeing production roll over before any 2nd-order war effects. The implications of the Iran conflict for the mining industry are being underappreciated, despite the severity of the situation. This dynamic is...
SPX Dismisses War Impact; Philippines Faces Demand Destruction
"What war?" says SPX. Same as before the war. Meanwhile, the Philippines is going through demand destruction and it is not alone. https://t.co/quzOcc6Ujl
Philippines Identified as Asia's Most Vulnerable Equity Market
The worst equity market in Asia: The Philippines. We identified this in Day 1 of the war and that the Philippines would be most vulnerable. https://t.co/vSODxPjtJE
Singapore Emerges Asia’s Strongest Market Amid Tightening Policy
US equities now above level before the war. What's the strongest financial market in Asia? Singapore. The MAS also tightened today. Why? Well, GDP is resilient even if slowing and inflationary pressures rising. While Singapore is losing via terms of trade, it's...
Optimism OK, but Market Data Refutes “No‑need” Claim
Nothing wrong with believing that the Iran War will soon end and Hormuz will be reopened next week. Feels sanguine at this point, but possible and I hope you’re right But you’re irresponsibly wrong if you argue that market reaction thus...
Hormuz Closure Could Add 0.8% Core Inflation
Economists at the Dallas Fed try to model the effects on PCE inflation of a one-, two-, or three-quarter disruption of oil shipping through the Strait of Hormuz The DSGE model projects WTI prices peaking at $110, $132, or $167 per...
China May Pressure Iran to Reopen Strait Amid Oil Shortage
Assuming Iran has no intention of conceding, and Israel has no contention of conceding, and Trump will claim victory no matter what… what are Vegas odds China will need to pressure Iran to open the strait and if so by...
Stocks Rally on Ceasefire Hopes; Commodities Stay Cautious
Stock markets and the US dollar are painting a rosy picture, with traders seemingly seeing a ceasefire heralding the end of the US-Iran war. Bonds, gold, and oil prices are telling a different story. #IranWar #StockMarket #gold #oil #macro #trading https://t.co/wLRi4EJNxA
US Chip Export Controls Fuel Chinese Industry Growth
Sebastian offers a calm and objective assessment of the US chip-export controls on China. While whether the rule is working or not remains a debate in Washington, the consensus among Chinese chipmakers is that US restrictions constitute the single strongest...
Iran's Hormuz Chokehold Gives It Geopolitical Leverage
Geopolitics expert Alexander Mercouris on why Iran holds MOST OF THE CARDS: “[Iran] has this chokehold [Strait of Hormuz] over the global economy… and they intend to retain control of it indefinitely.” https://t.co/iRoLyxzVKl
Social Media Sentiment Index Turns Negative After Year‑Long Rise
GS Social Media Economic Sentiment Index slipped negative for the first time in a year https://t.co/BS27wk0I2g
Suez Canal Traffic Plummets as Houthi Attacks Intensify
The Suez Canal connects the Red Sea to the Mediterranean. It carries about 12%-15% of global trade. Since 2023, vessel traffic has COLLAPSED. CONTRARY TO WESTERN PROPOGANDA, THE HOUTHIS CALL THE SHOTS IN THE RED SEA. https://t.co/3ti8ThWrDE
Customs Launches Refunds for Trump's Illegal Global Tariffs
Customs sets up refund process for Trump’s unlawful global tariffs #energysky -- via Solar Power World: https://t.co/SGmgl7OuvN
Inflation, Not Deflation, Threatens Sovereign Fiscal Stability
Basic Econ 101: Countries don’t spend themselves into bankruptcy in a deflationary environment. They run into trouble when inflation is rising and central banks lose control of the long end of the curve.
Alcohol Drinks Count in CPI Core, Not PCE Core
Today I learned that alcholic beverages are part of "commodities less food and energy commodities" in the CPI but not in "PCE goods excluding food and energy"
Data‑Driven Reassurance Helps Clients Navigate Headline Uncertainty
2026 faces a familiar but challenging dynamic: a surge in headline-driven uncertainty prompting clients to question whether they should take action with their portfolios. 1. After a remarkable run in 2025, which included 39 record closing highs for the S&P 500,...
Physical Asian Oil Surge Forces Paper Prices Higher
My take @Fortune on oil prices: "Physical oil in Asian markets spiked past $150 a barrel; the paper market never climbed that high… The paper price will be forced to converge with the physical - and it has nowhere to go...
History Reveals What Truly Anchors Price Levels
From bimetallism to the gold standard to fiat money, what really anchors the price level? Is it the monetary standard, the fiscal backing, politics, or all the above? Monetary historian Kris Mitchner joins the podcast this week to help us...
Global Energy Shock Still Unreflected in Prices
I agree with my friend and renowned oil expert Javier Blas. The GLOBAL ENERGY SHOCK has yet to be priced in. https://t.co/jGrLu4xyby
Why Oil Can Be Both Surplus and Shortage
Oil Surplus Meets Oil Shortage: What the Heck is Going On? How can the world have too much oil—and not enough at the same time? Energy economist Ed Hirs explains. #oilandgas #iranwar #uspoli #cdnpoli https://youtu.be/u24Q9ESql1A
Tucker Carlson Blames Israeli Pressure for US Iran War
.@TuckerCarlson on the REAL cause for the US to engage in a war on Iran: “You would have to be either not very bright or under immense pressure from another country to start a war like this... We did this because...
Trump Announces U.S. Blockade of Hormuz Strait
President Trump made one of the most significant moves of the past year when he announced that the U.S. would blockade the Strait of Hormuz. Full analysis available exclusively on Patreon ➡️ https://t.co/9Jtz6Cei8b #iranwar #geopolitics https://t.co/pQIrU6zGT9
Higher Defense Spending Increases Deficits and Debt, IMF Finds
According to the IMF’s research of 164 countries, higher defense spending worsened gov’t deficits by ~2.6% of GDP and raised public debt by 7 percentage points within 3 years. DEFENSE SPENDING = BAD ECONOMIC NEWS. https://t.co/XJxs1VYPUV
Panel Tackles Growing Global Current Account Imbalances
I'm looking forward to moderating this panel Wednesday on widening current account imbalances, with IMF MD Kristalina Georgieva, BOE Gov Andrew Bailey, Kristin Forbes, Adam Posen and Helene Rey.
Hormuz Crisis Slashes OPEC Output, Sparks Global Energy Turmoil
🎡The Hormuz Crisis Reduces OPEC Production by 7.9 mb/d 🎡Kazakhstan's Crude Production Recovers 🎡EU Dependence on Russian Gas to Increase 🎡Iran War, Hormuz & Petrodollar 🎡US Blockade of the Blockade 🎡Panic and Oil Hoarding 🎡Saudi Oil to China: Watch Chinese Inventories 🎡India to Get Iranian Oil, But...
UK Bond Market Losers Identified, Risks Explained, Solutions Offered
Posted earlier today: FYI, here’s the link to my column on who lost the UK bond market—the what, why, and so what... and also what to do about it: https://www.ft.com/content/4b258818-4935-4507-b554-bccc5fd05b66 #economy #markets #bonds #uk @financialtimes
Venezuela's Bolivar Plummets 84%, Calls for Dollarization
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Venezuelan bolivar ranks as the WORLD'S WORST currency. The bolivar has depreciated by 84% against the USD over the past year. VENEZUELA’S TOP PRIORITY = OFFICIAL DOLLARIZATION. https://t.co/gLHWv0eqUW
Iran's
@ResourceTalks I mention what most people miss: that I am the only reliable source of inflation measurements in Iran. "Since the war started, the Iranian rial has appreciated about 9-11% against the dollar, and inflation is down from over 80%/yr to...
Housing Bust May Fuel Fed’s Push for Productivity Boom
One interesting cross-current in the mkt is watching the top of the housing market and the commensurate generational drag it could have on inflation. This bust could be the political capital the Fed needs to easy into a productivity boom. Notice...
Congo Miners Slash Chemicals Amid Iran War Supply Disruption
Exclusive: Congo copper and cobalt miners cut chemical use as Iran war disrupts supplies, sources say - https://t.co/5DDE1vPMdu
Geopolitical Tensions Offer Buying Opportunities, Says Yardeni
Ed Yardeni tells CNBC that geopolitical events are buying opportunities, even as Trump announces plans to blockade the Strait of Hormuz. https://t.co/L0aaO4wMJK
Hungary Ousts Orbán, Rejecting Corruption and Stagnation
orbán out after 16 years. not about left vs right. voters rejected corruption and stagnation. a very important signal for europe and for trump’s allies. @gzeromedia
Dollar Resists Petrodollar Collapse, Fueled by U.S. Counterattack
The “petrodollar collapse” story gets it backwards. China was eroding it slowly. The Iran war just forced the U.S. back into the game. Control flows, control currency. The storm is real. The dollar isn’t dying—it’s fighting back. https://t.co/7oWpaZUa7T
NYT Proposes Conditional Entry for Chinese Automakers
.@NYTimes opinion piece: “We could allow Chinese automakers to enter the U.S. market provided their cars are manufactured in the U.S., their costs aren’t subsidized by the Chinese government and Chinese automakers satisfy U.S. government security concerns with regard to...
Inflation and Iran Tensions Threaten Mortgage Rate Stability
Today we discussed the recent #inflation data and the complications of the Iran conflict for rates if labor stabilizes. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #oil #mortgagerates #chartdaddy
Higher Oil Prices Need Weak Labor Market to Spare Inflation
We have had elevated oil prices before without much impact on core inflation, but back in 2011-2014, the labor market was softer, and wage growth was much lower with lower nominal growth https://t.co/sgut5B2XBG
US Global Police Era Ends; China Rises, Europe Resists
Fact is that the past 40 years in an abnormality caused by the dominante of the USA enabling USA to police the world. With the rise of China that dominance is over and the world is back to normal. Europa...
American Compass’s Tariff Tally Flawed and Misleading
"American Compass’s 'Tariff Tally' Doesn’t Add Up" via @ericadyork @alex_durante_ "The piece presents a flawed, inconsistent framework for how tariffs affect the economy... The analysis also relies on selective and asymmetric presentations of economic indicators" 😱 https://t.co/BCyEOZJa1o
Questioning the Accuracy of 34 Hormuz Ship Claims
If *34 ships did in fact go through Hormuz, how many of them were linked to Iran? *I personally think this number is not accurate
Hundreds of Tankers Rush to US Amid Iran War
More than 100 empty oil tankers are heading to the U.S. to fill up as the war in Iran forces the industry to find new sources of oil according to Fox News. 🤔 https://t.co/mGL1u3xP7X
US Blocks Iran Oil to China, Marking Escalation
The US is now effectively blockading China’s oil supplies from Iran. This is a nontrivial escalation.