Global Economy Social Media and Updates
Global Economy Social Media and Updates
Global Economy Pulse
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
So, now I'm seeing ads for IEEPA tariff refunds and US tariff calculation work. On the one hand, the market works. On the other hand, this is costly and only necessary because of misguided US tariff policy https://t.co/nU32IBGoFO
The Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz could have major supply chain implications. Lisa Anderson explains why this global shipping chokepoint matters—and what manufacturers should be thinking about now. Watch the Supply Chain Byte. #SupplyChain #Geopolitics #Manufacturing https://t.co/hLUT5Rpp0T
No suspense here, seeing as the Treasury Secretary already confirmed that these "investigations" will result in new tariffs. The only question is how USTR will justify the conclusions the White House has already written
Employ America Statement on the Coordinated IEA Release. https://t.co/goQS5uJUUS No stockpile release can compare to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but with the right preparation, there are still ways to make it helpful at the margin. https://t.co/K549sAsIrM
Interview coming out very soon with legendary economist (by some objective measures he is #1 economist of all time) He has severe concerns about an oil shock & stagflation
If governments lean too hard into fuel subsidies this is going to shift from necessary demand destruction to rolling fiscal crises.
Sanctions news: EU is weighing lifting its Russian sanctions against oil trader Niels Troost. Diplomats told the FT the designation of the Dutch trader was "legally weaker" than other listings. Discussions on-going. Decision subject to approval by 17 March https://t.co/JxBkaf5Xzx
OPEC+ crude production rose more than 400 kbpd m/m in February according to just-released OPEC data, with the bulk driven by the ongoing Kazakh recovery. Unfortunately it's immediately worthless given GCC crude exports were throttled immediately thereafter by Iran War. https://t.co/jTQxOjrt4b
for whom?! Iranian tankers shipping Iranian oil? Right now there's a Thai cargo ship on fire off the Coast of Oman that tried to transit the Strait of Hormuz. Maybe ask them if they think its working out "very well"
My full write up on inflation. Important to remember that we can not sustain or obtain full employment unless inflation is detailed. For those arguing the #FOMC should cut to shore up employment and ease inequality. Cuts in late 2024...
President Donald Trump said he didn’t believe Iran was laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Asked Wednesday whether Iran had laid mines in the strait, Trump told reporters, “We don’t think so. Trump also urged oil companies to send their...
Diesel prices for U.S. truckers rose a record 96 cents a gallon this past week, a sign of the financial strains hitting supply chains following the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran. https://t.co/C9K90LaXGX
“More specifically, this conflict represents a supply shock, not demand driven inflation, which from a monetary policy perspective makes a very significant difference, as a supply shock will reduce demand, consumption, and consequently growth.” - Rieder
Here's monthly seasonally adjusted core. It's been pretty stable for the last three years (perhaps not at the level you'd prefer.) https://t.co/1r4VLXWf1S
The first is interesting here, as the cut-off date was well before the flurry in oil prices. You can basically at this make a reasonable case for anything from 0.1pp to 0.4pp extra on the 2026 headline forecast.
Iran's demand is the U.S. leave the Middle East. Basically, do the pivot to Asia for real.
They think we're stupid. The @WhiteHouse said Iran’s nuclear facilities were "obliterated" in June 2025. Now we're escalating again? Why? And we're expected to finance this spending via inflation? Fiat is perpetual war, debt, and inflation. Opt out. Sell bonds. Buy bitcoin. https://t.co/EUQm4727iz
Very pleased to read the Government of India's supportive statement for @IEA's collective action to release emergency oil stocks to address disruptions in global oil markets – and that India stands ready to take appropriate measures to support global market...
Rather dramatic repricing of the Fed rate path vs 3 weeks ago before the Iran war. Cut cycle terminal rate now 3.28 with odds increasing that cut cycle is already over https://t.co/VYJRS9oWdI
yes, managing to stop all non-Iranian oil tanker traffic in the Persian Gulf is a tremendous impact.
"The Russian government is preparing a possible 10% cut to all 'non-sensitive' spending in this year's budget, sources told Reuters, but the final decision will hinge on the sustainability of the oil price rise triggered by the war in Iran. As...
We still need Feb PPI , but Feb core PCE looks much stronger than Feb core CPI. On Friday, Jan core PCE will also be stronger than Jan core CPI. This is not shelter. Instead, it reflects the differences in...
Saudi Aramco resumed 70% of oil shipments via Red Sea pipeline. Markets celebrated. But 30% is still offline. And the Strait of Hormuz — the main artery — remains contested. 70% of normal isn't normal. https://t.co/8vfhBzo9cZ
The Fed is 99% expected to hold rates next week. April cut odds just dropped to 11%. The "Fed pivot will rescue crypto" trade has been on standby for two years now.
More to come but things to keep in mind… CPI headline figures of 2.4% are artificially suppressed by the lapse in data collection during the six week government shutdown. Under the hood, there is a disturbing acceleration in core service sector...
I’m looking forward to being “Hedgeye Live" in May. It will be a candid, data-driven discussion between me and @KeithMcCullough on the Fed, the economy, and markets — Get your tickets:https://t.co/MHeVrqQao0 #federalreserve #powell #dimartinobooth #economy #hedgeye https://t.co/YcfP4M0qvV
In order to help us visualize the various stress points in the market (and in case they get worse), I created several dashboards over the weekend. First up is the commodity & currency heat map. From left to right are the...
Europe rushes to deal with price fallout from Trump’s Iran war https://t.co/khA8dhNhMj via @johnainger @donatopmancini https://t.co/3tcyP5Pu0U
if you keep increasing the taxy levy without real benefits, eventually new supply (some forced) comes into market and lowers price, which then increases the tax rate burden as a % of asset that makes it very unattractive this is the...
The Strait of Hormuz remains almost shut, even as the risk premium priced into Brent currently (blue) is on par with that after Ukraine (black). The Strait is 3 times more important for global oil supply than Russia, so risk...
The primary driver is the escalating conflict in West Asia involving Iran, Israel, and the US. This has effectively choked the Strait of Hormuz, the maritime gateway for nearly 90% of India's LPG imports. While the government has prioritized domestic supply...
Rather than the IEA's own 400 million barrels, the most important number right now is Japan's announcement that's releasing from Monday (March 16th) ~80 million barrels from its reserve. Those are actual flow barrels that will hit the market immediately...
9 trading days into the conflict, crude and gas price trajectory has been very similar oil: https://t.co/O0orfuxpnw
Everyone thinks this war will be quick, clean, and somehow end with peace across the Middle East. That’s fantasy. We’ve heard this story before. Iraq. Afghanistan. Politicians promise “mission accomplished” and the real problems start right after. Markets are still far too optimistic...
Before adding in geopolitical inflation risk, goods inflation outside food and energy is already running about 3% faster than what prevailed for most of the last 3 decades Much of this is tariffs, but bottlenecks from the AI boom are also...
Quantum leap forward in financialization with ZIRP, but original sin (to your handle) was the Maestro using monetary policy to make us richer than our economy could grow. The Rubicon on ZIRP policy was QE 2. That’s when emergency gov’t...
fun fact: the @bankofcanada has decreased rates 7 times since September 4th, 2024... both Canada 5-year and 10-year yields are higher since they started... #oops
Why the Fed can't do much with a CPI report that's benign on the surface: It doesn't at all resolve the dilemma Fed officials face when the inflation measure they care about most is less encouraging and a major energy...
10-year yield pulled back from 4.21% to 4.11%. Not because the economy is fine. Because oil retreated and gave the bond market a breath. One headline away from 4.25%. https://t.co/62rQysSFLG
Nice to see that @HyunSongShin has officially recognized that stablecoins open the door to an "Uber Surge Pricing" type liquidity market. [Actual gas markets also clear in a similar way, notably the NBP balancing point system.] The below screenshot is from...
Inflation data in the U.S. has been released. Everything came in line with expectations. Right now, the market is more concerned not with current inflation, but with the risk that it could start rising again in March amid a - likely...
A relatively tame CPI for February which is, of course, the before times. Annual rates for core: 1 month: 2.6% 3 months: 3.0% 6 months: 2.3% 12 months: 2.5%
🚨 Big Tech in Iran Crosshairs - Is a Market Sell-Off Coming? Everyone watched CPI today… but the real story is Iran. Tehran just warned U.S. tech facilities and banks in the Middle East could be next targets - naming companies...
Generally, this has been good value for UST 2s. Chart of yield less funding rate (SOFR) https://t.co/jPLWuxmxaW
I'm not quite sure what to call this — a video essay, an explainer, or an econ lesson... It's my attempt to explain the economics of war — economic theories of how and why war occurs — and to use that...
Toldja: "Globalization is proving resilient" https://t.co/IpMqFYjhJK The data's "a counter-narrative to politicians and analysts arguing that economic disengagement and the formation of new, distinct geopolitical blocs are happening in any seismic way" Twas always a silly idea. https://t.co/UcJgPpaAFP
Two asterisks to what would normally be considered a fairly decent CPI report. First, obviously, this was before the economic fallout from the Iran war. Second, the very favorable data imputation in the October report (due to the govt shutdown) unwinds after...
Update on our Alt Inflation Indicators: Real time shelter continues to run quite below official stats. We show more real time shelter running just +0.2% vs 3.0% in BLS stats. Subbing this alt shelter into CPI, we get headline inflation < 1.6%...
Yes, the numbers are that crazy. Not impossible obviously, but crazy. The increase in China's vehicle/ car exports over the course of 2025 was ~ 2m cars and it acceletated toward the end of the year. ...
Price changes over last year (February CPI report) Gas Utilities: +10.9% Fuel Oil: +6.2% Electricity: +4.8% Medical Care: +4.1% Food away from home: +3.9% Shelter: +3.0% Overall CPI: +2.4% Food at home: +2.4% Transportation: +2.2% New Cars: +0.5% Used Cars: -3.2% Gasoline: -5.6%
