Fed's Inflation Metrics Remain Elevated, Trending Upward
The Fed's inflation gauges were still elevated before the Hormuz closure...and headed in the wrong direction. Oof https://t.co/nry4KuPH5o
5‑Year Yields Rich Amid Front‑End
After a spirited front-end rally, 5s looking rich on the curve as intermediate-term slowdown bets dominate. Unfortunately, other tenors have their own issues. Fiscal concerns make the long end unattractive before May refunding and 2s have a here...
IMF Delays Full WEO Release, Downgrades Middle East Outlook
Apparently the IMF won't release its full WEO compiled report for the April 2026 update until Apr 30th. That said, we can look at the projections table and compare to the January update. A very tame adjustment - outside of...
Dollarizing Boosts Growth; Argentina Should Follow Suit
Ecuador and Montenegro both dumped their local currencies and “dollarized.” Stability and growth followed. Meanwhile, Argentina is plagued with the peso and lags behind. IT'S TIME FOR ARGENTINA TO DITCH THE PESO AND DOLLARIZE. https://t.co/KWvfRtgqwr
Geopolitical Risk Revives, Sparking Rapid Market Shifts
US-Iran peace talks collapsed over the weekend. Markets repriced oil, gold, and risk assets instantly. Geopolitical risk premiums aren't dead — they're just dormant between headlines. When they wake up, they move fast. $WTI $GLD $SPY — all in play. https://t.co/oTOb2cKuEy
IMF Warns Iran Conflict Could Spark Fifth Global Recession
the imf's worst case scenario for the iran war: oil at $110 this year, $125 next year. inflation hitting 6%. global growth falling below 2%. that would be a global recession — the fifth since 1980.
Freight Data Shows Industrial Demand Rising Despite Oil Shock
Ignore the noise and focus on the signal. This is a great economy for goods consumption and we are finally starting to see industrial demand strengthen. If the oil shock were going to impact goods demand, it would have shown...
US PPI Hits 4%—Inflation Persists Despite Fed Easing
March’s US Producer Price Index (PPI) remains ELEVATED at 4.0%/yr—its highest reading since February 2023. As the Fed pivots away from quantitative tightening to quantitative easing, it's having trouble putting the INFLATION GENIE BACK IN THE BOTTLE. https://t.co/DCJ60m5pJO
Oil Shock Fleeting, Fed Should Ignore; Egg Prices Fundamentally Falling
An oil-price shock is “temporary” and the Fed should look through it. But egg price deflation is fundamental.
Lagarde Applauds Hungary's New Leader for Euro Entry Plan
Lagarde welcomes the new Hungarian leader’s plan to join the euro https://t.co/ccZ5XwRv1A via @flacqua @NickHeubeck @weberalexander https://t.co/6Ic3jaRRx6
Self‑Correcting Cycles Drive Markets, Economies, and Nations
This evolutionary cycle is not just for people but for countries, companies, economies—for everything. And it is naturally self-correcting as a whole, though not necessarily for its parts. For example, if there is too much supply and waste in a...
Israel's Outsized Influence Lets 9 Million Steer 350 Million
.@TuckerCarlson on Israel’s role as the puppet-master of the US. “The problem is the mechanism of control that allows a country of 9 million to control a country of 350 million.” https://t.co/U9ixzXTjAy
Risk Appetite Soars as S&P Nears Record High
What Middle East crisis? Sticky inflation? Exacerbated existing economic uncertainties? None of this is competing with risk appetite right now. $SPX is within 1 percent of its record intraday high and sporting is second strongest 10-day rally in four years...
US Tariff Revenue Drops 29% Before Massive Refunds
US tariff revenue moved down to $22 billion in March, a 29% decline from the peak revenue levels last November ($31 billion). This is before the impact of IEEPA duty refunds which are expected to total $170 billion in the...
China Cracks Down on Firms Ditching Its Suppliers
1/2 NYT: "As China’s mammoth trade surplus stokes global tensions, Beijing has enacted sweeping new regulations to investigate and punish foreign companies that stop using Chinese suppliers in response to political pressure at home." https://t.co/hHhm9lhuk8
China’s March Soybean Imports Slump Far Below Expectations
🇨🇳China imported 4.02 million metric tons of soybeans in March, well below expectations and the month's average (both ~6 mmt). Halfway through 2025/26, total imports were a 3-yr high BUT below the 5-yr avg on minimal US arrivals. 10+ mmt per...
China Halts Exports From Plastic Trinkets to Missile Magnets
Bessent: “China is stopping exports of various products” Products like “plastic trinkets”, or products like “the rare earth magnets we need to rebuild our missile stockpiles to continue our war v. Iran”? 🤔
Lagarde Vows to Stay, ECB Faces Cloudy Outlook
Lagarde says she won’t leave the ECB early with clouds on the horizon https://t.co/tF1dhc5d3h via @flacqua @jrandow https://t.co/hz1lQcvqmw
Europe's Economy Falls Beneath ECB Baseline, Says Lagarde
Lagarde says Europe’s economy has slipped below the ECB baseline https://t.co/OCRhGflvWZ via @flacqua @jrandow https://t.co/ff1kSW0T6r
Tariffs Spur Companies to Halve Declared Export Values
Companies dodge tariffs the old-fashioned way. They cut the declared value of goods being exported in half and pay half the new tariff rate. IMPOSE A TARIFF = INVITE WORKAROUNDS. https://t.co/rl20Lgpb2O
US Inflation Peaks as Hormuz Shock
JUST IN: US PPI inflation rises to 4%, its highest since February 2023. Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz supply shock is estimated to cause oil demand to contract by 80,000 barrels per day — the largest drop since COVID. Are you...
China's Export Growth Falters as Global Demand Slumps
China’s Export Momentum Slows Amid Iran War—Weaker global demand threatens a growth driver for Beijing @hannahmiao_ @TByGraceZhu https://t.co/vpepE1zohz https://t.co/vpepE1zohz
Money Supply Rising, Yet Far Below Past Inflation Peaks
It is tempting to become hyper-focused on oil, but don't take your eye off of money supply when assessing inflation dynamics. Though money supply growth is accelerating across the major economies, it remains materially lower than it was in previous...
Lagarde Reverses Stance: Europe Not Epicenter of Iran War Fallout
Lagarde: Europe NOT at epicenter of Iran war fallout. That's quite a turnaround from the Mar. 26 interview with The Economist, when she said: “We are facing a real shock…probably beyond what we can imagine at the moment.”
Iran Conflict Eases Yuan Pressure as Banks Shed $30B
The Iran war took the heat off China's currency. After facing strong appreciation pressure from November through February, the direction of pressure changed in March -- The state banks look to have reduced their foreign assets by ~...
Canada Pauses Fuel Tax, Cutting Gas Price 10¢ per Litre
After Germany, here it comes Canada: Prime Minister Mark Carney said he will suspend a fuel excise tax until Labor Day weekend. The measure will lower gasoline prices by 10 Canadian cents per liter, and diesel by 4 Canadian cents.
Iran's Inflation ~64%, Rial up 8% Despite Claims
Startup Fortune (not Fortune magazine) claims Iran's inflation is 180% and the rial is in freefall. WRONG. I measure Iran's yearly inflation at 64%/yr. Since the war began, the rial has gained 8% vs the USD. I AM THE ONLY ACCURATE...
Weak Dollar Fuels Stock Rallies Amid Policy Shifts
This time last year also was terrible for the US dollar and great for stocks. April 7 2025: stocks rally on Trump tariffs deadline extension. March 31-Apr 11 2026: stocks rally on war ceasefire/talks
IMF Slashes UK Growth Forecast, Flags Stagnation
Among the G7, the IMF’s outlook for the UK is likely to attract attention due to: • A Sharp Growth Downgrade : 2026 GDP forecast has been slashed to 0.8%, risking "stall speed." • Persistent Inflation: The hope that inflation would return...
China Ramps up Export Controls Ahead of US‑China Talks
China has increased its use of export controls, underlining Beijing’s willingness to leverage its power over supply chains as Xi Jinping prepares for talks next month with US President Donald Trump. by @leahyjoseph, @cheng_leng_ & Wenjie Ding https://t.co/oGe6739GIG
IMF Renames Baseline to “Reference Forecast” Amid Uncertainty
This is the usual summary table from the IMF’s latest WEO. Notably, the Fund has swapped its usual "baseline" terminology for a “reference forecast” paired with alternative scenarios. This shift highlights today's volatile global landscape, characterized by high uncertainty and disparity,...
IMF Warns Iran War Triggers UK's Biggest Growth, Price Shock
UK faces biggest growth and price shock from Iran war, IMF says https://t.co/OooXhvUdQo via @PhilAldrick https://t.co/8t1CXx1CDK
Dollar Slides Below 99, Signaling Eroding Confidence
DXY just broke below 99 — a 1.25-month low. Dollar weakness at this scale matters globally: commodities reprice, EM debt gets relief, US exporters benefit. But a structurally weaker $DXY also signals eroding confidence. That's the part worth watching. https://t.co/G2iZaPA5wz
Upcoming Bloomberg TV Interview on Europe's Economic Outlook
Live from 16:00 CET/ 10:00 ET: Looking forward to speaking with @flacqua on @BloombergTV about the economic outlook for Europe https://t.co/zVz2cbT662
Middle East Conflict Reshapes Current and Future Energy Markets
Pleasure to open today's sessions at the Semafor World Economy in Washington In a fireside chat with @semafor's Global Managing Editor @prashantrao, I discussed the implications of the war in the Middle East for energy markets today and in the future...
Questioning Panic over Possible Hormuz Closure
"I don't get why people fret about the Strait of Hormuz being closed for six weeks when it might not be closed sometime in the future" https://t.co/2QU64RAu5W
IMF Warns Middle East Conflict Could Cut Growth to 2%
JUST IN: IMF warns sustained Middle East conflict could drop global GDP growth to 2%
Bullish on Oil as Hormuz Closure Sparks Market Tension
I'm used to oil hate because, well, I'm not a permabull and normally the dooming is deeply overwrought This episode has been weird bc I'm bullish oil given THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ HAS BEEN CLOSED FOR SIX WEEKS and now I've...
March PPI Jumps to 4%, Biggest Rise Since Feb 2023
JUST IN: March PPI inflation rises to 4%, the largest yearly gain since February 2023
WTI's $7 Drop Signals Ongoing Geopolitical Volatility
WTI crude dropped from $104 to $97.24 in 24 hours — a $7 swing in a single session. That's not a market. That's a volatility event. US-Iran breakdown + supply uncertainty = oil as a geopolitical instrument. Watch $WTI. The whiplash isn't over....
America’s Empire: Unraveling or Deliberate Dollar Redesign?
Is the American Empire unwinding… or being deliberately reshaped? @SimonDixonTwitt joins me to break down: • Power structures above politics • The future of the dollar • What it means for your money Full interview 👇🏼 https://t.co/W13LI6XqRY
YMTC Expands Production Amid Escalating US‑China Trade Tensions
Exclusive: Chinese chipmaker YMTC plans new factories amid heightened US-Sino trade tensions, sources say - https://t.co/RoWfDZ6BEq
US Stock Market Health Drives Global Economy and Consumer Spending
This is part of why this administration cares so much about equity markets. The moment the market enters a real sustained drawdown, 401ks, retirement programs are impacted and Americans begin holding on to every dollar they have. That behavior alone...
EU Bans China From Research, but Europe Pays the Price
Commentary: EU Shuts China Out of Science Projects, but Europe Will Pay the Price https://t.co/nVLtwgVav5
Supply Chain Strain Peaks at Highest Since Jan 2023
"Global supply chain pressure is at its highest level since January 2023, according to data released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York." https://t.co/ukMJP5oDLE
China's High‑tech Export Surge Reshapes Global Markets
China Shock 2.0: The Flood of High-Tech Goods That Will Change the World amazing deep dive into the data, from @rwmcmorrow, @Sam1Fleming, @pmdfoster & @leahyjoseph @FT 👉 https://t.co/6LLsSBXlUn https://t.co/o80ETCu1Ki
US PPI Inflation Slows to 0.5%, Easing Fed Pressure
This will come as a relief to many, including the Federal Reserve: Monthly US PPI inflation was 0.5% in March, less than half the consensus forecast. America's diversified economy and its energy security are again distinguishing its economic performance from much of...
Trump’s Withdrawals Gave Iran Nuclear Leverage, Now Trapped
the reason iran has a stockpile of highly enriched uranium…is because trump unilaterally pulled out of jcpoa. the reason iran has leverage over the strait…is because trump decided to on a regime change war with iran. trump now trying to...
IEA Warns Forced Oil Contraction Amid Record Supply Loss
IEA just confirmed it: Record supply loss, collapsing demand, inventories draining. This isn’t a price spike—it’s forced contraction. Reopen Hormuz or brace for impact. https://t.co/Svzz77tows #Oil #Energy #Geopolitics
EU Pushes Electrification to Shield Europe From Energy Crises
EU TO BET ON ELECTRICIFICATION TO AVERT RECURRING ENERGY CRISES The European Union 🇪🇺 will float a series of measures next week to help the continent deal with the Iran war’s energy price fallout, as well as electrify the economy to...