Britain, Italy, France Overtake PIIGS in Bond Market
The things to chat about on tomorrow's podcast with @MrMBrown getting ever longer - first it was the ONS putting back their deadline for accurate jobs data. Will also talk about this morning's FT "BiF" piece, as Britain, Italy and France replace the "Piigs" as bond market bad boys
FranceAgriMer Keeps Soft Wheat Export Forecast Unchanged
JUST IN: FranceAgriMer maintains its forecast for soft wheat exports outside the EU without adjustments.
Retail Adoption of Dollar Stablecoins Fuels Hyper‑Dollarization
It will be foreign sovereigns seeking to de-dollarize while their citizens seek to dollarize. place your bets...
Inflation Still Above Fed’s 2% Target, No Decline
Are inflation and core inflation coming down? Unfortunately, I don't think we can say so anymore. Not on the measures that define the Fed's 2% inflation target: https://t.co/2NzZtQ2Qjr
Brazil Conditions Rare Earth Deal Amid US‑China Competition
China and the US want rare earths. Brazil will share – on one condition Move comes as Washington locks US$565 million deal with Brazil’s only operating rare earth mine https://t.co/iQo2RjLACX via @scmpnews
Trump’s Blockade Threatens Fragile US‑China Détente
Trump’s Blockade Risks Upending an Emerging Détente With China In a thinly veiled critique of the war in Iran, China’s leader said the world could not risk reverting “to the law of the jungle.” Not very thinly veiled.... https://t.co/LPtfynf5Up
Markets Near Record Highs as Peace Prospects Brighten
🚨 IRAN. CHINA. OIL. STOCKS. 2 MINUTES. Markets are near record highs but the US-Iran ceasefire is still up in the air, China is watching every move, and oil prices are creeping up. Here's what it all means for your portfolio 👇 📌...
Rates Promised Down, Borrowing Binge Persists
"they keep telling us the same thing. our governments’ and central bankers keep telling us that they’re going to bring interest rates down and know full well that the borrowing binge is a problem." our latest quarterly chit chat breaks...
Greek Government Reappoints Stournaras as Central Bank Head
Greek government to reappoint Stournaras as central bank chief (and ECB Governing Council member) https://t.co/KeVphZWurT via @NikasSotiris https://t.co/xAAOWvVCBE
Cutting Qatar and UAE LNG Rewinds Market Five Years
Removing Qatar and UAE LNG supplies from the global market is like winding back the clock to the same supply levels as 2021, a 5-year setback. https://t.co/zj6XaND0zQ
IMF Warns War Will Trigger Pandemic‑level Global Slowdown
IMF Chief Kristalina Georgieva warns that the US-Israeli war in Iran will SLOW GLOBAL GROWTH to a pandemic-level pace. As I have been saying since DAY 1, a GLOBAL ENERGY SHOCK is in the cards. DAMAGED PARTIES SHOULD SEND A BILL TO TRUMP...
Peace Talks Cut Oil Prices, War Premium Vanishes
$USO $WTI crude dropped from $104 to $93 on Apr 14 as peace talks advanced and the IEA slashed its oil demand outlook — expecting an 80kb/d contraction this year. War premium evaporating in real time. https://t.co/2vKFARGwFk
Ramaphosa Issues Detailed Reply to Musk on Investment Rules
President @CyrilRamaphosa has given a COMPREHENSIVE response to @elonmusk following his social media posts about South Africa’s requirements for foreign investment…. https://t.co/WviFIHT03F
Governments Can't Borrow Their Way Out of Energy Crisis
One big and underappreciated difference between today's energy shock and the events of 2021-22 = Governments will not be able to borrow their way out of this one. Many governments borrowed heavily to fund subsidies, bailouts, and other measures to shield...
Dollar Set to End Seven-Day Slide
The Greenback is Poised to Snap Losing Streak: The US dollar is enjoying a firmer bias today. The Dollar Index is threatening to snap a seven-day decline. President Trump has held out the possibility that the “war is close to...
Non‑fuel Import Prices Climb 2.8
Non-fuel import prices rose 0.6% in March, are up 2.8% year-over-year https://t.co/3UkarMgRx7 Looks like exporters forget to eat Trump's tariffs.
Xi Offers Four‑point Middle East Peace Plan to Abu Dhabi
Xi meets Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, makes four-point proposal on Middle East peace https://t.co/0zJ1IU6Rlx
Greece Exceeds Budget Targets, Announces Further Gains
Greece is set to reveal yet more outperformance on budget goals https://t.co/K6mvz8wQdH via @NikasSotiris https://t.co/vU1OuuIO0i
EU Grapples with Whether to Embrace Chinese Investment
Excellent piece by @barneyjopson @leahyjoseph @ian_c_johnston about a very real dilemma faced by many EU governments: should Europe welcome Chinese investment? https://t.co/IWJghsXaVY via @ft
US and UK Finance Chiefs Brace for Tense Talks
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves are gearing up for what is likely to be a tense meeting https://t.co/GikKUDXuBo via @is_fink https://t.co/mfGjhhMCyG
Euro Adoption Spikes Bulgaria's Inflation, as Predicted
Bulgarians are already feeling the consequences of Bulgaria’s FORCED ADOPTION of the euro. Inflation SURGED to 3.9%/yr in March from 3.3%/yr in February. As the Father of Bulgaria’s currency board, the inflation surge is exactly what I said would happen. https://t.co/CNFoYkR0n4
From Great Moderation to Chaos: Supply Shocks Return
If the Great Moderation was the result of fewer nasty supply shocks, more efficient supply chains, and better policymaking - as economists claim - then what we have now is the complete reversal of those trends. Nasty supply shocks, the...
US Leaders Dismiss Israeli Iran War Plan as Farcical
I spoke w/ @janetonthemoney on the US-Israeli war plan for Iran, presented at the White House on Feb. 11: "John Radcliffe, the head of the CIA, called Netanyahu's Mossad plan to destroy Iran 'farcical'. Marco Rubio said it was ‘bullshit'."
Blockade Shift Signals Market Relief Amid De‑escalation
Big thanks to @johnauthers for including me in today's @business write-up. The shift to a blockade is good news for markets because it signals a shift away from war and possible catastrophic escalation to economic countermeasures. That's good news... https://t.co/hh4YxAnK3P
Only Two or Three Rate Cuts Remain After War
After the war is over, they will push for lower rates, but realistically, we only have two or maybe three cuts left to reach a neutral policy.
Fed Speeches and Price Data Dominate April 15 Calendar
Economic Calendar for Wed. April 15 8:30am - Export prices m/m for March: Expected 1.5%; Prior 1.5% - Import prices m/m for March: Expected 2.3%; Prior 1.3% - NY Empire State manufacturing for March: Expected 0; Prior -0.2 - Fed’s Barr speaks 10:30 - Crude Oil Inventories: Expected 2.1M; Prior...
War Blockade Deepens Iran's Rial Freefall, Sparks Capital Flight
The Iranian Rial was in freefall before the war, due to chronic economic mismanagement. The blockade will now amplify that by causing financial panic and capital flight. The parallel exchange rate will be falling as people try to convert savings...
Food‑at‑home Inflation Set to Jump to 5‑6%
BofA sees Food at Home inflation rising from 2% as of March to 5-6% in the next 6 months https://t.co/sxDL8p533h
Blockades Spark Panic and Capital Flight, Not Just Trade Halt
A successful blockade isn't just about stopping oil exports. It's about instilling panic in the population and causing capital flight. That's what happened in Russia, when fear of an embargo caused capital flight in 2022. The US has lots of...
US Warns China Will Lose Access to Iranian Oil
Escalation either way: US Treasury Secretary Bessent says China will no longer be able to get oil from Iran.
SPY Near Record as Iran Conflict Losses Vanish
$SPY closed at 6,967 on Apr 14 — just shy of an all-time record. Every loss tied to the Iran conflict has been completely erased. Markets aren't waiting for peace to be confirmed. They're pricing it in now. https://t.co/W4J7sSfitX
Saudi Pipeline Restores, Red Sea Crude Loads Surge
Iranian coast blockade to lift April’s Red Sea crude loadings to new highs ▶️Saudi pipeline restored at the weekend following Iran attacks, minimising delays in exports from its west coast ▶️Red Sea loadings peaked in March and likely to surge in April...
DXY Poised to End Losing Streak Amid War Escalation
DXY has not posted a higher close since April 2. It losing streak may end today. It is trading with a firmer bias and while POTUS holds out the possibility of the war ending soon, the press reports...
China’s Growth Likely Beats IMF Forecast, Hits 4.5‑5%
1/2 SCMP: "The IMF has lowered its global economic growth forecast. China – the world’s second-largest economy – is now expected to expand by 4.4 per cent this year." I, however, predict that China's GDP will grow this year by between 4.5%...
Iran Conflict Reveals Europe's Vulnerable Chemical Import Reliance
The Iran war is exposing Europe’s dependence on imported chemicals, threatening production of everything from food to painkillers https://t.co/leA9nWEbuu via @martin_marilen @weberalexander @hellococomo https://t.co/XrCPrbmVWo
South Africa Ranks 33rd in $219 Trillion Global Market
The global economy has a $219.2 trillion market. 🇿🇦 South Africa accounts for $1.1 Trillion (GDP PPP), that would place it around 33rd if we ranked 100 of the top countries.
Fed Missed Inflation; Core Prices Falling, Rates Should Drop.
Bessent to WSJ's Paul Gigot: "The Fed has been wrong on inflation and the core inflation is coming down, but I understand if they want to wait until the data's clear, but that will mean that interest rates should come...
Middle East Turmoil Threatens Worldwide Industrial Supply Chains
The Narrowing Straits: Why the Middle East Crisis is a Fault Line for Global Industry https://t.co/q4PGQdnQp0
Markets Calm as De‑escalation Risks Fade
READY FOR PEACE? 🕊️ Markets are starting to price in de-escalation: • Talks may resume 🤝 • Pressure building on China 🇨🇳 • Oil pulling back 🛢️⬇️ • Stocks stabilizing 📈 • Gold holding gains 🟡 The risk premium is fading… but headlines still rule. Watch oil. Watch...
Oil Surges Over
Hey @grok What's the historical market track record for the stock market after oil rises over 50% in one month?
Swiss Inflation Low; Money Supply Growth on Target
Switzerland’s inflation rate comes in at 0.3%/yr. NO SURPRISE. The Swiss money supply (M3) is growing at 5.0%/yr. That's within Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 4.4%-6.4%/yr, a rate consistent with the Swiss target range of 0%-2%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY...
Iran's Supertanker Defies US Blockade Amid Interceptions
Dear @grok truth? A. Iranian sanctioned supertanker crosses Strait of Hormuz, reportedly defying U.S. blockade. Vs B. U.S. naval forces have intercepted eight oil tankers entering or leaving Iranian ports since the start of the blockade, according to a U.S. official -WSJ
Danish Media Misframes US as Strait Blockade Villain
Just to describe the state media in Denmark. In yesterdays news national explained: 1. US is now blocking strait of Hormuz (not: US is blocking ships to or from IRAN, but strait is open) 2. Economic crisis imminent (narrative: due to US...
China Threatens Employee Penalties to Deter Supply‑chain Decoupling
This is extraordinary: China’s response to Western firms diversifying supply chains is to threaten penalties on their own employees and executives inside China if they “decouple.” It’s like an abusive partner reacting to a breakup by threatening the kids or shared...
China Produces over 20% of the World's Key Industrial Goods
Insane chart: China builds more than 20% of the world's solar panels, wind turbines, ships, trains, steel, aluminum, telecom equipment, chemicals, cement, machinery and aerospace equipment And that's 2023 data, likely understating its dominance Source: FT https://t.co/5vnFnr2SX1
US Blockade Threatens $435 M Daily Loss for Iran
🇮🇷 Iran Intel Brief | Pre-London ─────── US blockade of Iranian ports halts 90 percent of Iran's sea-based trade and economy. US declines to renew sanctions waiver for Iranian oil exports expiring April 19. Iran considers pausing oil shipments to evade testing the US...
UK Working Wages Fall Short, Universal Credit Hits 8.4 Million
In the UK, a "working salary" is basically not enough to live on, so the government tops up, paid for by what is now a shrinking and squeezed tax base. 1/2
Japan Pledges $10 B to Fuel Southeast Asia
Japan will provide as much as $10 billion in financial support to Southeast Asian countries to help them buy oil 🇯🇵🤝🛢️ This is the biggest effort yet to help cash-strapped developing nations deal with fuel shortages (This benefits Japan. SE Asia key to...
Dan Katz Discusses Global Economy at IMF Meeting
A good discussion on the global economy with Dan Katz, @IMFNews’s First Deputy Managing Director. #IMFMeetings https://t.co/yKh0mwJHGS
EU Must Adopt Systemic Approach to External Account Control
Good FT article on the role of Chinese investment in manufacturing in Europe. I worry however that EU policymakers may be framing the issue poorly. This should not be about managing incremental, country-by-country changes in production. Policymakers in the EU (and...