Global Economy Social Media and Updates
Global Economy Social Media and Updates
Global Economy Pulse
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EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
Iran says it hit an American tanker. If true…. Iraq has spent the last few days upping the danger for ships. The global risk keeps increasing for ships, crew, and cargo. The Strait of Hormuz and no safe movement either direction.
Carlyle’s Currie warning on the risks of upward pressure on all commodities. Says hoarding can lead to sustained upward pressure and this marks a regime change, not a spike. References post dotcom bubble (China entrance to WTO; gulf war; etc)...
Oil is the lifeblood of the global economy. The system just had a heart attack. The Iran War could become the most consequential geopolitical blunder by an American president in modern history. LINK👇 https://t.co/Tx2sjAvFjq #IranWar #OilMarkets #StraitOfHormuz #EnergyCrisis #EnergySecurity #Geopolitics #GlobalEconomy #OilShock #EnergySystem #SystemicRisk
As Bloomberg notes, the yen has reached levels where Japan's Ministry of Finance (MoF) and perhaps Secretary Bessent have a choice to make; the yen is clearly in the zone where intervention is a real possibility 1/ https://t.co/gE34g8gEW4
War continues. I am watching the cross asset class correlations. So far, bond yields and oil have moved together on inflation concerns. But eventually high oil prices are negative for growth. When bond yields fall as oil prices rise it’s...
Finland, a nation of less than six million that for decades inhabited a diplomatic limbo between East and West, now sits at the center of these geopolitical cross currents https://t.co/k9rSYzOhx1 via @liamdenning @loupalu @opinion https://t.co/qncnWOqcmj
China is expanding its ban on steel mills buying BHP iron ore again, adding another product to the blacklist. They've been negotiating for BHP for ~6 months now and there's no end in sight. This is the second ban in...
If the conflict lasts, Indonesia will raise fuel prices, which is what it did by end 2022 as the subsidy rose by 30bn…
How come the India VIX below is lower than it was during the Russia-Ukraine crisis? The US Vix is also lower than last year's wars and the Tariff announcements. Either we have not discounted the real extent of what has...
US launches probe into trading partners including the EU, China and India https://t.co/JsVy4bXFEc Announcement: https://t.co/UgsOQ97Tzp
The IEA says the war in turning into the biggest oil disruption in world history https://t.co/UJZqGyrhUP
“Our rules of thumb are that a sustained 10% increase in oil prices boosts headline and core PCE inflation by 0.2pp and 0.04pp, respectively, while lowering GDP growth by around 0.1pp. The growth impact from a temporary price increase that...
Transport services inflation will be the first core CPI/HICP components to feel the heat, though these data are very sensitive to ampling in any given month.
UK borrowing costs are on the rise once more this morning. Per the Bloomberg chart below, yields on 10-year British government bonds are again above 4.70% as the war in the Middle East pushes Brent oil north of $95 once again. This...
German 10-year yield climbs to highest since 2023 on inflation fears https://t.co/cvav2xEd32 via @highisland https://t.co/oIAhZehdiG
What are the consequences for energy markets and the transition of a potential long disruption to the Strait of Hormuz? TLDR: It’s a *lot* easier to replace 20% of LNG (15% of natgas supply) with wind and solar than it...
If you compress several centuries of economic history into a single visualization, one thing becomes obvious. Stability is the exception. Not the rule. Power in the global economy has always shifted. In the 1600s, Asia dominated. China and the Mughal Empire accounted for...
Overnight Iran reacted to the IEA's oil release intensifying its attacks on regional energy targets, including two small-sized fuel tankers in Iraq. Tehran knows oil is what could force President Trump to end the war early. Still, both Brent and...
US starts trade probe into the EU, China in Trump’s tariffs revival https://t.co/Yi7oHtrATc via @hlowenkron @catherine_lucey https://t.co/DnU0Aq5dCU
Washington Post op-ed: “Chinamaxxing is an effective meme precisely because Americans still see China, the world’s second-largest country by population and only other superpower, as incredibly alien.” https://t.co/xuaBorhEus
The Entire Global Economy in 2026 in One Chart (GDP, PPP) Key Takeaways: 👉 Purchasing power parity (PPP) adjusts a country’s economic output to account for differences in cost of living. 👉 The global economy sits at over $219 trillion by this metric, of which...
When commodity markets and metal stocks start falling, the narrative will shift from stagflation to a deflationary recession. Every day we get closer to that outcome, the war looks like the smokescreen or precursor to the final event
Macro: private-credit stress rising; Key: valuation opacity at Blue Owl, higher rates; Risks: hidden losses, redemptions; Trade: cut private-credit exposure. Takeaway: market to reprice risk. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Six vessels attacked in Gulf, Strait of Hormuz as war puts merchant ships on front lines https://t.co/pAYt6WBG5O
🚨Iran is still pushing oil through the Strait of Hormuz: At least 11.7 million barrels of Iranian crude have passed through the strait since February 28, all headed to China. Many tankers have "gone dark," switching off their GPS tracking systems...👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-iea-has-proposed-the-largest-emergency-oil-release-from-strategic-reserves-in-history
NYT op-ed: “For years, Washington’s Latin America policy has oscillated between neglect and alarmism…The result is a region that has learned to nod to U.S. concerns while quietly cashing Chinese checks.” https://t.co/fuVrwW6AHG
Who everyone I talked to at the shipowners conference today thinks is blowing up merchant ships: Trump & Hegseth Who is actually blowing up ships: Iran
We are witnessing the end of globalization If the US military with the massive armada assembled within 500 miles can’t protect ships in this region, we stand little chance of protecting our container shipments from Asia in the event of a...
Food Inflation in America. Not good. Looking at major categories of foods. Some continued to spike (beef, coffee), others continued to plunge (eggs), others changed less. Overall food inflation accelerated on top of already very high prices https://t.co/taRrQJWe4I https://t.co/IdfYxkT1G2
China has just ordered an immediate ban on refined fuel exports in March to manage any potential domestic fuel shortages. A week ago they asked refiners nicely and just targeted new contracts, so this is a step up
Oil price back to $100. Even though the EIA said member countries will release 400m barrels of oil. At this rate…this is just the beginning the oil shock will send to the economy, supply chain and consumer price.
Trump has a few days to finish the war before oil finishes him, says @JavierBlas That's wrong. This was finished on March 1 when tankers stopped moving through the Hormuz Strait. Trump has a few days to find a way to get...
“This war hugely damages U.S. standing in the world, which means that China has much more scope to establish its own standing in the Middle East and the Global South generally,” said Steve Tsang, director of the @SOAS_CI in London. @yarotrof...
We've already lost roughly a quarter *billion* barrels in cumulative oil supply thus far in the Strait of Hormuz stoppage.
This is the popular narrative but it's not correct. Inflation de-anchored in the late 1960s under pressure from Great Society & Vietnam spending and Martin acquiescing to LBJ's pressure. Inflation was kept artificially low in the early 1970s by wage...
Oil (white) and the 10yr treasury yield (green) are going in the wrong direction ... up! Wen bailout? https://t.co/BCYqJRrZpQ
The IEA just released 400 million barrels to cover a 20-day shortage. Oil markets are pricing in something longer. Private credit funds are starting to gate withdrawals. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/G7C0qy6noj
hardly the "win" to boast of when the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, oil markets and everything downstream plus several other key commodities are buckling under extreme strain, the Mideast is on fire, and there is no end in sight...
In case you have not noticed yet, we are reliving the 1970s with interest rates heading higher and commodity prices blasting off In the 1970s U.S. equities rattled back and forth in a 50% range U.S. equities are overpriced now -- but...
Brent crude #oil is flirting dangerously close to the $100/bbl level once again after two tankers were attacked in Iraqi waters, underscoring the broader risks to energy assets across the Middle East and overshadowing a record oil release from the...
Crude oil prices rose - feeding inflation fears and punishing the stock market- despite an IEA release of 400 million barrels from emergency stockpiles. Now what? #crudeoil #oilprices #IranWar #stocks #stockmarket #inflation #macro #trading #dollar https://t.co/jccqS0V3d3
About to jump on CNBC @asiasquawkbox to talk about the Iran War, the Strait of Hormuz, the latest tanker attacks in the Gulf, and tonight’s jump in the price of crude. Tune in! https://t.co/myMaR7VRA7
In case you are wondering why oil prices continued to rise despite the US announcement of a massive SPR release: In the SPR literature, more than 30 years ago, experts warned that announcing an SPR release might signal crisis and cause...
exploding tankers, the us releasing 40% of its remaining oil reserve, and trump bragging about how well things are going: not indications for low oil prices.
My take on the MONEY SUPPLY: "The money supply is always the cause of inflation. There are long and variable lags between changes in the money supply and changes in inflation." THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. My latest with @JanetOnTheMoney...
“The Federal Government cannot continue to spend more money than it takes in.” - Jimmy Carter (1978) “For decades we have piled deficit upon deficit, mortgaging our future and our children's future.” - Ronald Reagan (1981) “We must bring the Federal budget...
The oil market isn’t clearing Available barrels are being offered at extreme premiums, but refiners are refusing to buy When prices rise this fast, markets freeze. The problem isn’t cost. It’s physical supply. https://t.co/bjYMZAsRUg #OilMarkets #EnergyCrisis #Hormuz #Geopolitics #EnergySecurity
Have you asked yourself this? “How robust are our operating margins and cash positions if this so-called 2.4% US inflation is merely a lagging indicator, and we’re confronted with a sustained 20% energy cost shock, still-high interest rates, and regulatory upsets...
Of course they are. In case anyone thought President Tariffs was actually done with tariffs. But at least 301s have an anchor.
Good morning from Hong Kong. Day 13 of the Iran War. Hormuz effectively closed, impacting not just global energy supply chain but also food and metals. https://t.co/yXfDXHwzMN
