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Thoughts? The historic oil price spike to $147 a barrel in July 2008, triggered the worst day in Wall Street history with the Dow falling 777 points. Rising oil prices cascade through the economy, causing inflation across all goods and services, increased unemployment, and market volatility. It caused oil to surge 400% in less than two years, enriching energy companies like Occidental Petroleum, Halliburton, and Chevron.
A couple weeks ago, not many were saying inflation was more of a problem than most realized and we probably don't get as many cuts as are priced into things. @sonusvarghese was all over this lonely call. We've constructed our portfolios...
A few moments from my recent interview with Asharq Business اقتصاد الشرق 🎙️ We discussed some of the key topics shaping today’s global economic landscape — inflation, oil prices, geopolitical tensions, and the upcoming FOMC meeting on March 18th. Grateful for the...
Thank you to Prime Minister @GiorgiaMeloni of Italy for her and the Italian government’s support for the @IEA’s largest ever release of emergency oil stocks to address the major market disruptions stemming from the Middle East conflict https://t.co/njWNOSd5hu
Cramer getting sassy about Iran not having the cards to force oil to $200/bbl by citing the US experience in the... Vietnam War? I've LITERALLY NEVER BEEN SO BULLISH. https://t.co/d8799zIp8i
As the front part of the curve moves closer toward pricing in Fed rate hikes, SPX is down just 1.2%... and the Russell 2000 isn't getting killed $SPY $IWM https://t.co/ITSA3q3sjN
Military conflicts have driven some of the most intense intervals of White House pressure on the Fed in the past. “I hope the Board will…not allow the bottom to drop from under our securities,” Truman wrote to the Fed chair...
The Fed can't cut because of oil. Can't hike because of jobs. Can't do nothing because the curve is screaming. Monetary policy was built for one crisis at a time. This is three.
The president expresses a desire for a rare intermeeting rate cut. The last one occurred on March 15, 2020, as the Covid shock overwhelmed financial markets. The Fed's next scheduled policy decision announcement—widely expected to be no change in rates—is in...
Brent crude price, Iran-War-to-date My expectation is that this rough/steady slope will hope, grinding $3+/bbl higher each and every day this crisis persists, always with the possibility of big lurches higher should Iran successfully take out major regional oil infrastructure. https://t.co/nwGMcg7rja
Cannot agree more. DO NOT end US oil exports. Our integration into the global oil market is essential. Protectionism would be a horrible idea right now.
We've been looking at scenarios on the total volume of goods pumped through the economy, based on current geopolitical developments: Our general view is that the impact of high oil prices isn't as dramatic as one would initially fear in...
Iran war inflation continues to push up the terminal rate, now 3.37. This had been trading around 3% a month ago. No surprise UST front end getting shellacked with 2s 3.74 and 5s 3.86 https://t.co/8FiC830XW4
🚨 Mid-week Iran War and oil market update for Commodity Context subscribers. More regular coverage of the acute volatility across the increasingly strained oil complex in Oil Context Weekly tomorrow. https://t.co/lvkkTTJr9s
Not gonna sugar coat this and do not care if it costs me my new Pentagon press credentials and access to this administration. The left smeared my name in a major WAPO hit piece and the right can do the...
There also is a world market for oil. When oil prices go up in Europe and Asia, people here pay more. Even a Trump-Energy Secretary should know this.
U.S./Iran war is not (yet) an oil shock Oil futures prices have increased by more than a third since Israel and the United States attacked Iran and almost two-thirds since the start of the year but the increase is not yet...
America’s Strategic Oil Exports @WSJ Great and important read. I still believe the WSJ Editorial Board does some of the most balanced and informed analysis in the media. https://t.co/sxJ6f76VCl The International Energy Agency said Tuesday that its 32 member countries will...
Airfares are beginning to climb as jet-fuel prices surge following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, pushing airlines to raise fares and fuel surcharges while warning of more increases if the conflict drags on. Carriers say travel demand remains strong,...
Saudi Arabia is booking more and more super oil tankers at sky high rates (>$450,000 a day vs pre-war levels of $100,000 a day) to shift crude from the Red Sea into global markets.
The Strait of Hormuz isn’t just about oil and gas. It’s about fertilizer. It’s about the supply chains that feed the world. Disrupt them, and the consequences show up months later—smaller harvests, tighter grain supplies, and higher food prices.
Could the Bank of England defer a possible rate cut next week? https://t.co/f0T8D0P94L #GBP #FOMC
NEW: Russia is earning up to $150mn a day in extra budget revenues from oil sales amid price rises thanks to the US-Iran war. Moscow has so far earned $1.3bn-$1.9bn from taxes on oil exports and could receive $3.3bn-$4.9bn in total...
FWIW - The greatest risk to the unfolding events in Iran was, is, and will continue to be the backdrop of invulnerability that existed moments before hand.
If Hormuz flows do not resume for a month, that's the worst-case disruption duration my colleagues at @RapidanEnergy and I modeled last June when we mapped out a US-Iran conflict on global oil and LNG markets and prices. We modeled disruption...
Renewables are the only exit strategy: Day 12 (updated) impact of the Israel and US attack, tracking Force Majeure, surcharges, and the explosive inflation behind the headlines FORCE MAJEURE IMPLICATIONS >Shell: FM on all LNG cargoes from Qatar >QatarEnergy: Pretty much totally down,...
Today's Opening Bell We covered a lot today- asset chapters provided US Dollar Testing Yearly High as Iran War Escalates https://t.co/7jdA7902Rt
Rational arguments are made as to why the Iran war won't be over soon, even as it "should" be over to prevent an economic calamity. Yet the market prices this as a temporary shock. What gives? What's the market seeing that...
"Indian Source Says Iran to Allow India-Flagged Tankers Through Hormuz as First Tanker Arrives" Looks like the Strait of Hormuz will be the new Bab el-Mandeb 🍻 https://t.co/370QXTDJC2
At the start of the year, the market was pricing in 2 Fed rate cuts. Today: just one cut, and not until the September meeting. The reality is inflation never moved down to the Fed's 2% target and is now moving higher....
The Iran War could trigger a global economic crisis and you won’t find a better summary of why than this one sentence from Rachel Ziemba below. Yes, this is about gas prices. But it’s also about: - the cost of food...
Mortgage Rates Go Up: As The Price Of Oil Goes Up So Do Mortgage Rates Unless the War In The Middle East ends quickly we will soon see most Mortgage Rates in Canada start with a 4 And ZERO chance of Bank...
Would like to understand why these tankers are sailing unimpeded. Is it that they are going to China? Is it physically impossible to commandeer these ships like with Venezuela?
The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey just jumped to its highest level since Q3/2022. They surveyed 41,700 employers in 42 countries. https://t.co/rs7Dv4XiH6
Trump is a genius He just figured out he f**ked himself. He didn't see that starting a war that the closed the world's most important energy chokepoint might backfire? #IranWar #OilMarkets #GasPrices #EnergyCrisis #Hormuz #Geopolitics https://t.co/eqI97IDGLV
New NYT Opinion from me: The debt math of the United States only works if the rest of the world believes in it… but they’re starting not to. What does that mean for our future (and for all this debt)?...
I think it is a mistake to think that Japanese officials actually defend a fixed USD-JPY level. It makes sense to be cautious about the $USD in general as interest rate differentials have moved against it. It is a...
Gold should be exploding right now. Here's why it isn't Oil +8%. Stocks tanking. USD rising on safe haven flows But gold? Flat Meanwhile Iran's new Supreme Leader Khamenei says Strait stays closed warns of US military bases attacks Watch what happens next👇...
Maersk. Treating the Strait as a long-term situation. The length of the war. How it ends? Iran’s position? Undoing the ship mess in the Strait and Persian Gulf?
At some point (idk when) "the Strait is closed/open" is going to be a bit like "we shut down/reopened the economy for covid" -- a binary that glosses over various phases of the process.
U.S. dollar $DXY, volatility $VIX and yields $TNX all rising in tandem > 20-day EMA... https://t.co/Dv49pGJIRC
Consumer Prices in the US rose 4.4% per year over the last 5 years and over 24% in total. 2% inflation is a myth. The Fed should not be cutting rates at all this year. https://t.co/yilrof4KhM
Why are oil speculators assuming this war is short and irrelevant? Yesterday I talked to an energy analyst I highly respect, and he waved off the Iran situation. Oil/gas markets are dynamic and flexible, he posited, they can handle it....
My take on the CONSEQUENCES of the WAR IN IRAN: "About 33 percent of the world's fertilizer goes through the Strait of Hormuz. Some people realize this is a BIG DEAL." UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES OF WAR = HIGHER FOOD PRICES. My latest with @JanetOnTheMoney on...
...and yet, the Strait of Hormuz is STILL closed, for the 13th day. Why? 🤔 At some point, investors are going to understand why this is; when they do, it is going to be very bad for both stocks AND...
The ‘competition’ between the U.S. and China is over. It’s just a question of the terms they will tolerate us to live by.
The WSJ reports that German manufacturing orders fell 11.1% in January compared with the previous month. GERMANY’S GREEN MADNESS & SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIA HAVE PROVEN TO BE A DEADLY COCKTAIL FOR GERMANY. https://t.co/sqcs2lQvqA
The War Escalates and Markets are Unimpressed with IEA Oil Move: The Middle East war is escalating. The market seems unimpressed with the announcement that strategic oil reserves will be released. The announcement is light on details, such as pace...
Good point. There s no viable workaround for the Strait of Hormuz. Ships and supply chains are at a standstill.
Iran says it hit an American tanker. If true…. Iraq has spent the last few days upping the danger for ships. The global risk keeps increasing for ships, crew, and cargo. The Strait of Hormuz and no safe movement...
