Hungary's Real Wages Fell to Eastern Europe's Bottom
Hungary’s real wages have been picking up, but btw 2004 and the early 2010s they went from middle of the East European pack to the bottom of the league. More on this in the Chartbook Top Links of today. https://t.co/JcNYWpZzuJ
Investors Push S&P 500 Record Assuming Iran Peace
War w/#Iran? What war w/Iran? Investors bid #SP500 to record on assumption peace w/be reached before bite on corporate America becomes too severe. #realestate #CRE #mortgage #Trump #energy #StraitofHormuz https://t.co/uyHUttmiNq
Yield Gaps Reveal Overlooked Oil Supply Risks
Orange: UK 10y yields Blue: US 10y yields Light Green: German 10y yields Dark Green: Japan 10y yields Red: China 10y yields 2008 to today. Everyone is focused on sovereign oil supplies; no one is considering oil supplies in context of the chart below. Big mistake...big...yuge https://t.co/BrA762Bo13
Europe’s Gas‑electricity Crisis Effectively over, Easing ECB/BoE Worries
For Europe, the energy “crisis” in natural gas and electricity is, essentially, over. Sure, it can re-start if the ceasefire collapses, and Iran were to attack Qatar. But as now, it’s gone. And, let’s be clear, it was never a threat to...
Fed's Post‑War Policy: Cuts or Hikes?
Is the Fed gearing up for rate cuts or rate hikes after the war? https://t.co/rrlbTJ5MBC via @YouTube
White House‑Fed Tension Persists Beyond New Chair Appointment
Interviewer: Do you think the tension between the White House and the Fed goes away when Warsh becomes Chair. Me: No. It continues (form may change some) until the President backs off and lets the Fed do its job. And...
Asia's Energy Shortage Sparks Rationing and Black Markets
Rationing and black markets have already sprung up in Asia. Some countries have found ways around the shortage (for now), but that has created new issues for others. #iranwar #energy #geopolitics https://t.co/0wpmsFgat3
Dollar's Reserve Role Erodes as DXY Stalls Below
The other side to the toll booth narrative in the SoH is that the dollar will continue to devolve as the dominant reserve currency, as more and more of the world’s trade takes place locally or regionally. With that in...
Iranian Oil Return Could Shift Energy Markets Soon
If the US and Iran reach a deal — a big if — it’s fair to assume Tehran gets sanctions relief. If that includes oil sales — another big, although likely, if — then in a few months the energy...
Imported Inflation via Energy and Food Remains Top Risk
“The biggest risk continues to be that inflation gets imported around the world,” first through energy, then to food & beyond: MS’s Ted Pick. Otherwise, markets will stay strong with even a “narrowing of the cone of uncertainty” around the...
War's Hidden Costs Hit Americans Irreversibly, Even After Ceasefire
The question that I get asked most often is: Even if the ceasefire holds, has the war already imposed large irreversible costs on Americans? So I made a video digging into these issues. The stakes may be much larger than you...
Rising Economic Pressure on Iran, China Faces Scrutiny
Economic pressure on Iran goes up. Also pressure on China to stop supporting Iran financially and military
Policymakers Warn Markets Underestimate Iran War's Economic Impact
Markets are too blasé on the Iran war’s economic toll, policymakers warn at IMF https://t.co/UrMvBW5akU via @sdonnan @jdorosario https://t.co/X926kAVuz7
Trump Threatens to Scrap US‑UK Deal over Iran Stance
Today, President Trump THREATENED to rip up the 2025 US-UK trade deal due to a lack of UK support for the US-Israeli war in Iran. TRUMP = CAN’T BE TRUSTED TO KEEP A DEAL. https://t.co/3FGduS3ssw
Trump Threatens to Scrap UK Deal over Iran Stance
Seriously, what is the point of making a trade deal with the United States if the President will just pull out of it over unrelated issues or policy differences? “Trump threatens to shred UK trade deal over Starmer’s Iran war...
China Cuts African Tariffs, Contrasting US Stance on Rare Earths
China removing tariffs from Africa imports. The opposite of the US. And the rare earths?
Mortgage Rates Dip as Oil Eases Despite Hormuz Shutdown
Why are mortgage rates falling with the Strait of Hormuz still closed, and oil priced around $95 barrel? - Ceasefire and oil prices off their highs (was ~$110) - Hope of a peace deal or resolution (talks ongoing) - Labor is still a...
War and Triple Shock Push 32 Million Toward Poverty
According to the UN Development Programme, up to 32 MILLION people risk falling into poverty. A TRIPLE SHOCK of energy affordability, surging food prices, and war-linked economic slowdown is hitting the most VULNERABLE ECONOMIES. WAR = POOREST PAY THE HIGHEST PRICE. https://t.co/HQo02bwHXO
Bitcoin Climbs as Strait Tolls Pressure Gold Reserves
One emerging narrative resulting from the Iran conflict is that Iran will more or less control the Strait of Hormuz with a “toll booth” approach and that countries might pay those tolls in Yuan or crypto. Meanwhile, the exporting countries...
Emerging Markets Surge as Yuan Hits 3‑Year High
While risk appetite has recovered sharply amid the Strait shutdown, emerging markets doing particularly well. While the EEM ETF has climbed (inverted below), the Chinese Yuan has climbed to a 3-yr high vs the Dollar - 254 days USDCNH below...
Blockading Ports Isn’t Strategy; It’s Self‑defeating.
2025: blockading American ports. 2026: blockading Iranian ports. Same move, different flag. If your grand strategy is just “less trade for everyone,” mate, that’s not chess. That’s flipping the board. https://t.co/Re8HN1bIye
Oil Spikes Trigger Swift P/E Collapses, History Repeats
The markets have been pricing for a quick end, much like what happened during the 1990 Gulf War. The analog below shows that the surge in oil prices to $100 (in today’s terms) was quickly reversed, and with it so...
Iran Offers Free Passage Through Hormuz If US Deals
Reuters: "Iran could consider allowing ships to sail freely through the Oman side of the Strait of Hormuz without risk of attack as part of proposals it has offered in negotiations with the United States if a deal is clinched...
Liquidity Surge Signals Tech and Crypto Rally Ahead
The Everything Code suggests that over time the NDX has a 97% correlation with GMI Total Global Liquidity. Total Liquidity is at all time highs. NDX is following. We have been long tech stocks in GMI (and RV Pro) since Dec 2022...
US Oil Exporters Profit From War, Alongside Russia, Iran
US oil and gas exporters are among the war’s winners (along with Russia and Iran).
Iran and Israel's Economies Were Similar Before War
Contrary to the narratives spun in the media, prior to the US-Israeli war on Iran, the economic performances of Iran and Israel were not dramatically different. https://t.co/w0V3ueiaZm
Yellen: No Dollar Alternative, US‑China Must Team on AI
Yellen says ‘no alternative’ to dollar, urges US-China cooperation for sake of the world Regarding US-China collaboration, Yellen singled out AI as an area with significant threats, requiring US and China to cooperate to ensure the safety of AI systems. “We...
IMF Slashes Growth Outlook to 3.1% Amid Hormuz Blockade
The IMF has cut its global growth forecast to 3.1% as THE Hormuz blockade drives up oil, food, and inflation forecasts
Hungary's New PM Calls for Full EU Integration, Euro Adoption
Newly elected Hungarian Prime Minister Peter Magyar just said the quiet bit out loud: It’s time to properly come into the EU fold and, eventually, adopt the euro https://t.co/bbLFhjl64o via @opinion @marcusashworth https://t.co/RbHXBW7qU0
U.S. Blockade Fuels Iran’s Shipping Disruption Strategy
The U.S. blockade is helping Iran Iran’s play: disrupt shipping, break the system. U.S. response: disrupt shipping even more. That’s not counter-strategy—it’s reinforcement. #Oil #Energy #Geopolitics https://t.co/Kz2aYw9QG3
Luxury Brand Slumps Signal Stagflation Ahead
This may have flown under the radar: Keep an eye on luxury brands starting to report weaker results. They’re often a leading indicator of what’s coming for the broader consumer. The current environment is deeply stagflationary. https://t.co/53453IX0Fd https://t.co/qvZM0cAjOO
China’s Tech Surge Marred by Waste, Looming Stagnation
"China’s High-Tech Drive in 10 Charts" https://t.co/SZXnkg9CHZ "There have been tremendous strides, but also great waste and failures, such that China’s economic growth is likely to continue to stagnate and decline." https://t.co/hH3Gu87F81
ECB Faces Uncertain Outcomes over Iran
Nagel says the ECB between baseline and adverse outcomes on Iran https://t.co/A2MX9mA2pD via @flacqua @jrandow https://t.co/4PwzutyUl5
Iran Conflict Signals Next Phase of Global Cycle
Most people look at wars as isolated events. I look at them as part of a Big Cycle that has repeated many times, so for me watching what is happening is like watching a movie I've seen many times before. What we’re seeing...
Oil Price Surge Drives Japan's Industrial Slump
Yesterday, industrial production in Japan slid from 4.3% in February to -2.0% in March. HIGH OIL PRICES ARE HITTING JAPAN’S INDUSTRIAL HEARTLAND HARD. https://t.co/bTPfg5d5gV
One Belt One Road Lending Surges in 2025
Reports of the end of China’s One Belt One Road lending were very premature - 2025 was a record year for new commitments. More on this in the Chartbook Top Links today. https://t.co/KIBnk4491s
Chinese Navy Escorting Iranian Oil Tests US Resolve
What happens if the Chinese navy escorts its purchases of Iranian oil out of the Gulf? Does the U.S. fire—or fold? That’s the risk baked into this blockade. #Oil #Geopolitics #Energy https://t.co/E9QhehmmvD
S&P 500 Rebounds, Ignoring War, Oil, Inflation
the s&p 500 has fully recovered to pre-iran war levels. the strait of hormuz is still effectively closed, disrupting global supply chains. oil is still near $100. inflation just hit a three-year high. the market has decided none of that...
Mearsheimer Claims Israel Controls U.S. Policy, Fuels Endless Conflict
Distinguished UChicago Prof. John Mearsheimer on the Israel Lobby: “The Israelis basically own us [the USA] —they’re driving our negotiating position... this conflict is going to go on and on because the Israelis want it to.” https://t.co/hd4zlmRYaX
Supply Gap Emerging as Last Hormuz Tankers Arrive
The tanker companies I spoke to last week confirmed that the last vessels that moved out of the Strait of Hormuz before the closure have reached their destinations at the end of March -- meaning the real supply gap is...
US Blockade Halts Iran's Oil Shipments to China, India
"The U.S. blockade of Iranian ports has all but stopped Iran-controlled or dark-fleet tankers moving Iranian oil to importers mainly China and India." https://t.co/UXsjqOp2by
US Deficit Cuts Essential for Global Current‑account Balance
"Reducing the US fiscal deficit materially and sustainably is the most important US policy prerequisite for global current account rebalancing" This is ignored by many trade deficit hawks bc 1) it contradicts their narrative of the US as innocent victim; 2)...
US Oil Production Hits Record High Amid Hormuz Blockade
CHART OF THE DAY: The barrel of last resort. US total crude oil and refined petroleum products have surged to an all-time high of >12.7 million b/d. (And further highs are likely over the next few weeks as everyone turns...
Financial Repression Exposed: BOJ Carry Trade Fuels Inequality
OUT NOW - top economists don't talk about Financial Repression (FR). That ends today. @HannoLustig on: - Bank of Japan's ~¥600 Trillion carry trade - Who hurts/benefits from FR - Inequality & Debt Crises Apple 🔊https://t.co/sn51jDcuVT Spotify📽️https://t.co/SBbM4xNOY5 1/4 https://t.co/uu9WBxzeQe
Blockade Iran: Safer Than War, No Oil Spike
If you're interested in the rationale for blockading Iran and why this won't spike oil prices, watch my discussion on this from a month ago with @paulkrugman. Economic warfare like a blockade isn't perfect, but it's infinitely preferable to actual...
Trump's Moves Price Chaos in Market Volatility
"Every time Trump escalates, markets go down. Every time he deescalates, markets go up." That's not a mystery. It's a price tag on chaos. https://t.co/i552NfcSzT
Trump Vows No Fed Probe Drop, Threatens Post-Term Powell Fire
Trump tells Bartiromo he doesn't want to drop any Fed probe because he thinks the cost overruns need to be examined. He says Tillis's threat to delay Warsh's confirmation isn't serious... and if it is, he'll fire Powell after Powell's term...
Tech Trends Meet Macro Data in Essential Graph
Because it combines technological waves with macroeconomic quantities, this is such an important graph (quibbles about quantification aside). More on this in the Chartbook Top Links. https://t.co/mIjJngmXKU
USTR Section 301 Probe Called Pre‑Planned Tariff Sham
Bessent again confirms that USTR's "investigations" under Section 301 will be a reverse-engineered sham pre-determined to reproduce Trump's illegal IEEPA tariff wall: https://t.co/rvwEiNT9tw
Inflation Won’t Reach 2% Target, Be More Volatile
literally said that four years ago. Inflation would come down sharply, but not all the way to 2% - which was now the floor rather than the ceiling. And it would also become more volatile, due to various supply shocks