Modest Price Impact, Serious Geopolitical Shift Ahead
Two things can be true at once: the price effect on U.S. drivers may be modest, and the geopolitical effect may be serious. Econ isn’t just about what you pay today; it’s also about who gains power tomorrow. https://t.co/TsEHRECAKW
Putin Now Publicly Blamed for Russia’s Economic Collapse
More and more often, Putin gets directly and publicly blamed for Russia's collapsing economy. Something that was both unthinkable and very predictable only a year ago. https://t.co/oiTq1OF05N
IMF Senegal Loan Talks Advance, Debt Talks Still Needed
JUST IN: IMF's Senegal loan negotiations are progressing well, but more debt discussions are required.
Global Energy Crisis Hits Developing Nations Hardest, Europe Barely Notices
iea: this is the largest energy crisis we have ever faced. europe: ~6 weeks of jet fuel. flight cancellations coming. developing countries in asia, africa, latin america: already hit harder, heard less.
Gold Set for $8,000 Ounce as Debasement Trade Soars
JUST IN: The debasement trade is pushing gold to record highs, and Wells Fargo sees it hitting $8,000 per ounce.
Peru's Trusted Central Bank Governor Faces Retirement Amid Political Turmoil
Peru is gearing up to elect its 10th president in 10 years, but another serious question weighs on the nation of 35 million people: What happens if its central-bank governor of 20 years retires this year? The central bank has a...
Falling Energy Prices Undermine Case for ECB Rate Hikes
Dolenc says falling energy prices challenge the case for ECB hikes https://t.co/enf8vbgYkA via @jrandow https://t.co/fkf13bigUP
Argentina's Soaring Inflation Mirrors Runaway Money Supply Growth
Argentina’s inflation comes in at a RED HOT 32.6%/yr. NO SURPRISE. Argentina’s money supply is growing at 31.8%/yr. That's WELL ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 14.8%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its de-facto 10%/yr inflation target. INFLATION = MILEI'S ACHILLES HEEL. https://t.co/JvIDAwzeSe
Closing Strait of Hormuz Sparks Global Oil Market Panic
The nightmare scenario for oil markets (closing the Strait of Hormuz) is now seeing daylight. So far, most acute impacts vary across different regions and markets. But they are spreading. My in-depth talk w/ @WalterIsaacson & @AmanpourCoPBS https://t.co/3W14TCT5OI
Britain Risks Becoming Eurozone’s New PIIGS Member
After the FT published a piece this week on the BIFs, @MrMBrown and I discuss whether Britain has joined the Eurozone PIIGS? https://t.co/hm2XGRh3uP
Fed Serves as On‑Demand Safety Net in Collapse
There already is one. Love it or hate it, the Fed is the backup in a true collapse on demand.
Mearsheimer: US Losing Iran War, Needs Immediate Exit
Prof. John Mearsheimer on America's desperate search for an exit from its war on Iran. "The [US] is not in the driver's seat. [Iran] is in the driver's seat. We had these negotiations because America wanted them...We recognize we're losing the...
Trump's Fed Influence Could've Cut Rates by 100bps
If Trump had been able to pack the Fed, rates would have been 100bp lower going into this price shock.
Iran's Oil Power Persists Despite Export Bans
Pundits are underestimating what Iran can do with its oil if it cannot export it!
125 Months Sub‑5% Unemployment Marks Potential Record Expansion
If you take out the pandemic data (it was a fake recession) the unemployment rate has been sub-5% for 125 months Is this the longest economic expansion in history? Why has everyone been so wrong about this cycle? https://t.co/jcHreRBsjB https://t.co/aJhhsPzsZB
War and Energy Crisis Fuel Yield Surge, Bonds Bearish
Yes, higher yields for all kinds of reasons, namely: WAR IS INFLATIONARY in general, but when combined with global energy crisis? 🚀 Also, TARIFF REFUNDS are bearish bonds. And so are rising effective tariff rates... (yes, I do Technical analysis on everything.) #Paulson https://t.co/Z68kjUi0vF
Jensen’s Pods Evade China Scrutiny Post‑export Controls
all the pods Jensen did since export controls started where no-one asked hard questions on China https://t.co/y0Q7rws6QT
Trump Predicts Weekend US‑Iran Meeting, Hopeful for Deal
🚨 Trump says the US's next meeting with Iran may take place over the weekend. That it's "looking very good" that we're going to make a deal with Iran. -pump it.
U.S. Defense Spending Set to Surge Beyond $
$2t → $2.7t in 6 years. and that's before the iran war, before europe's (and asia's) defense spending push, before the $90b ukraine loan. the chart from 2026 is going to look even steeper.
War’s Economic Damage Endures Long After Conflict Ends
A lotta economic damage from this war will persist long after it ends. Lemme youtube-splain: https://t.co/9XY4jpVVZR
Reserve-Backed Stablecoins Win by Funneling Foreign Capital Into US Treasuries
.@nadertheory realized that reserve-backed stablecoins were going to win was because they were "geopolitically aligned" because they funneled foreign money into US Treasuries. 🎯 https://t.co/C8q3RCD95I
Oil Shock Less Severe; Iran Likely to Restore Flow
Of course the world cannot withstand a 20% supply shock of oil for quarters There are just two weird assumptions included in that: 1) The supply shock is not 20% effectively - far from it actually. The bypassing of the strait...
SWIFT: Belgium’s Banking Network as Economic Weapon
The most powerful weapon in America's arsenal isn't a nuke. It's not even in the military. It's a banking cooperative in Belgium that can destroy entire economies in days. In 2022, they used it on Russia, and the results were devastating. Here's the untold...
US Threatens Chinese Banks, Tightening Iran Oil Blockade
The US yesterday warned 2 Chinese banks they're at risk of secondary sanctions if they help buyers of Iran's oil. This is a very big deal. Iran has a bunch of fully-laden oil tankers already outside the SoH. This shuts...
FX Settlement Reveals China’s $35B March Currency Purchases
Fx settlement is in my view the single best proxy for China's true intervention. It looks like China, Inc bought about $35b in fx in March even with all the turmoil in the oil market. That's down...
Treasury Targets Iranian Elites with Aggressive Economic Fury
“Treasury is moving aggressively with Economic Fury by targeting regime elites like the Shamkhani family that attempt to profit at the expense of the Iranian people,” said Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent Not sure this will make a big difference...
Malaysia Q1 GDP Expected Around 5.5% YoY, Outpacing Forecast
GDP Msia 1Q 2026 (advanced) akan di umum Oleg DOSM Jumaat 17/4. Expectation: Expect ~5.5% YoY (4Q25: 6.3%). BNM forecast is 4.0-5.0% full 2026. 1Q GDP (YoY) minggu ini: •China. 5.0% above forecast 4.8%, stronger vs 4.5% in 4Q25. •Spore. 4.6% below forecast...
Inside the Gulf Crisis Response After Massive Oil Release
This week on @CleaningUpPod, we go behind the scenes with the man coordinating the response to the Gulf crisis. I travelled to Paris to meet @fbirol, Exec Director of @IEA, just a week after the release of 400m barrels of...
USTR’s Section 301 Probe Flawed Economically, Factually, Legally
We submitted comments on the new US Section 301 investigation of "structural excess capacity," explaining the herculean task USTR has assigned itself - and why its indicated approach would be economically, factually, and legally invalid: https://t.co/55Q4AADU12 https://t.co/INfD60QkjP
China’s Crude Stockpiling Proved Prudent, Says Column
Last year, the oil market was preoccupied with a question: why China was stockpiling so much crude. I wrote an @Opinion column about it in Sept, and re-reading it ⤵️ now, I must admit that all makes sense: Beijing was...
Limited Chip Exports Preserve US Edge, Fuel China’s Future AI
Jensen's arguments against chip export controls didn't make a ton of sense to me, but here's a steelman: selling a limited quantity of n-1 generation chips to China could undercut their domestic industry, while retaining a 10x American compute advantage. Totally...
Initial Jobless Claims Remain Unusually Low Recently
Interesting chart. Just going based on the last few years, initial jobless claims are unusually subdued https://t.co/3oUeLlzLaW
ECB Likely to Hold, Eyes June Hike Amid Oil‑energy Turmoil
The April decision by the ECB is definitely hostage to the fortunes of oil/energy and conditions on the ground in the ME, but the path of least resistance is for a hold. Will suit cautious policymakers and hawks will feel...
Economic Siege Meets Rising Civilian Uprising in Iran
The Iranian Regime is facing dual top-down and bottom-up pressure By blockading the Strait of Hormuz, the US is economically strangling the regime. 90% of Iran's capital flows came from selling oil through the Strait. That's gone. The Strait is also how...
Amazon's New Offering Highlights Ongoing US‑China Economic Conflict
#1 𝑵𝒆𝒘 𝑹𝒆𝒍𝒆𝒂𝒔𝒆 𝒐𝒏 𝑨𝒎𝒂𝒛𝒐𝒏 𝒊𝒏 𝑷𝒐𝒍𝒊𝒕𝒊𝒄𝒂𝒍 𝑻𝒓𝒂𝒅𝒆𝒔 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝑻𝒂𝒓𝒊𝒇𝒇𝒔. 𝑻𝒉𝒆 𝒆𝒄𝒐𝒏𝒐𝒎𝒊𝒄 𝒘𝒂𝒓 𝒘𝒊𝒕𝒉 𝑪𝒉𝒊𝒏𝒂 𝒊𝒔 𝒏𝒐𝒕 𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒊𝒏𝒈. 𝑰𝒕 𝒊𝒔 𝒂𝒍𝒓𝒆𝒂𝒅𝒚 𝒉𝒆𝒓𝒆. 𝑹𝒆𝒂𝒅 𝒎𝒐𝒓𝒆 𝒐𝒏: https://t.co/9KfoCtLq9O https://t.co/0p5CFjTIaR
Russia's Tight Money Stifles Growth Amid War‑Driven Inflation
“Russia’s tight monetary policy has landed it in an unlikely club of countries usually comprised of economies battling debt distress or runaway inflation, laying bare the economic costs from the war in Ukraine beyond the swelling military-spending bill… The sheer scale...
Low-Income Nations Need Stronger Debt Shock Absorbers
Shocks are hitting low-income countries more often—and too often turning into debt crises. "Better Debt Shock Absorbers for Poor Countries: A Proposal" https://t.co/S5Etx1URog @CGDev https://t.co/l2CZsNoya3
Open Hormuz Now to Stabilize Global Oil Markets
I'm so, so ready for this war to be over, for shipping traffic through the Strait to resume, and to spend the next month or two tracking the nitty gritty of how the short-term shock rippled through the global oil...
CPI’s OER Weight Masks Inflation; PCE Shows Hotter Price Pressure
This is not inflationary....Lots of conflicting data on inflation now.... Does CPI come in below expectations on the OER weighting while PCE comes in hot? CPI — Owner's Equivalent Rent (OER) is the single largest component, carrying a weight of roughly 26–27%...
Russia Seeks Escape From Steepest Three‑year Contraction
Russia looks for a way out of its sharpest economic contraction in three years https://t.co/qV7fi62bZB
Spending Fuels Inflation, Competition Drives Prices Down
The inflation story in one chart: Where government spending and subsidies are highest, prices rise the fastest. Where competition is highest, prices fall. https://t.co/zi3a45jUEi
Recession Fears Dispelled: Jobs, Manufacturing Surge, Markets Soar
FEAR WAS WRONG. THE DATA JUST PROVED IT. Everyone was screaming recession… but something weird just happened. The jobs numbers came in strong. Manufacturing surged. US, UK, China & Australia all beat expectations. $SPX just hit fresh record highs 🚨 The fear was loud....
Jobless Claims Confirm US Labor Market Resilience
Weekly jobless claims are perhaps the best real-time pulse check on US jobs, and this morning, they’re signaling a continued resilient labor market. (Bloomberg headline below.) #economy #jobs #employment #markets
India Drops to Sixth Largest Economy as Rupee Weakens
India has slipped from the 4th to the 6th largest economy globally, as per the IMF report, following a weakening of the Indian Rupee.
Jobless Claims Beat Forecasts, Layoffs Remain Stalled
Still nothing doing on the layoff front *US JOBLESS CLAIMS 207,000 IN APRIL 11 WEEK; EST. 213K
Iran's Job and Inflation Data Drive Oil Analysis
The key known unknown (to me) to analyse oil is the true state of the Iranian economy: jobs and inflation. I hear lots of tales, but I have little confidence on any. Reporting from inside Iran is extremely difficult. Economic damage...
US Blockade Shift Signals War De‑Escalation, Not Market Overreach
The most common comment I hear from policy makers at this week's IMF/WB meetings is that markets are way too early in pricing de-escalation. Disagree. It's clear the US wants wants to end this war, hence the shift to a...
War‑torn Iran Forced Into Negotiations over Collapsing Economy
"Iran’s War-Shattered Economy Means It Has an Urgent Reason to Negotiate," @WSJ You mean the experts commenting on the unbreakable will of the Islamic regime could be wrong? https://t.co/ednHa2MMNq Damage done by U.S. and Israeli attacks will take years to repair...
Dollar Rebounds Amid Fed Concerns, Robust UK, China Growth
Greenback Recovers Despite New Threats on the Fed and Stronger UK and Chinese GDP: (A business trip will disrupt the daily commentary tomorrow and next week, but the weekly analysis will be posted here on April 18 and the May...
US‑Iran Talks Lift Latin American Commodity Exporters
Now that Iran and the US are negotiating, fear that war may escalate out of control is leaving markets. That's lifting EM oil and commodity exporters, especially across LatAm. Good news for Colombia, Argentina and Brazil. A replay of 2022...