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Every morning
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OUT NOW - @martinwolf_ on "nightmare scenario" for oil prices and why the democratic regime change in Iran is "extremely implausible" 🇮🇷 Apple🔊https://t.co/YIUZqmamAH Spotify📽️https://t.co/TIAT3VANJk YouTube📽️https://t.co/unzLSGazzM https://t.co/MQl4DAj8d0
The discussion around TACO is wrong. There are no TACOs here. TACOs don't exist when: 1) It's not a unilateral decision. It's very clearly not up to Trump any more. Things we said in this episode are playing out - he...
Crude prices aren't what will ultimately drive the necessary demand destruction should the Strait of Hormuz remain closed. That job will fall to refined product prices, the things we as consumers actually consume. Singapore spot jet fuel prices are there already, over...
DXY starting to move up just as it did in early 2018. This threatens to tighten global liquidity even further, which will continue to be a macro headwind for risk assets https://t.co/70JRVsUDZk
When will the Copper-Gold ratio 'normalize' such that it will once again stand as a reflection of economic health? The unusual surge in gold these past months is still distorting it. Would be good to have a clear reading from...
January was another hot month for PCE inflation (we're getting these data two weeks later than usual due to shutdown). Annual rates for core PCE: 4.5% 3.7% 3.1% 3.1%
Iran war reignites debate over U.S. oil exports, which have surged after Congress + Obama lifted a ban in 2015. https://t.co/xCz2d8WdQ1 via @axios https://t.co/kHinCgc4Z7
Oil prices aren't expected to fall anytime soon. Futures markets suggest oil prices are very likely to be high high during the midterms. https://t.co/5A4nd2c298
It is hard to overstate how negative it is for stocks, bonds, and the global economy, and how positive it is for commodities and inflation (up bigly) if Hormuz is still closed in a month. Every single price on our screens...
Rather than blame business for price gouging perhaps the government would be better served at looking at its own policies around fuel duty, where the Treasury takes more than 50% of the pump price. Perhaps a temporary cut to...
$EEM up 33% over the past year. Then dropped 8.4% in a single week. That's not volatility. That's a warning. Dollar weakness opens the door. Oil slams it shut. EM is a minefield right now. https://t.co/i9MYZbdcdq
The US, Japan and the European Union are set to announce plans in the coming weeks to lay the foundation for a trade agreement in critical minerals. Trade agreements, ok, personnel, IP, experience, required... https://t.co/4wQbtrIhCR
Supertankers Build Up in Red Sea as Saudi Arabia Races to Bypass Hormuz. The plan and how much the infrastructure can handle. https://t.co/0tUBLK1icp
"In the wake of the conflict in Iran, Chinese buyers have been informed that shipments of zinc concentrates set to leave the port city of Bandar Abbas have been called off, according to people familiar with the matter..." https://t.co/jXqFGxfn43
On one hand, Trump laid out the 21st Century Manhattan project with the Genesis Plan, promising to lead the world in AI- an objectively good thing for America. @DavidSacks On the other hand, he goes into Iran cutting off oil...
Fed's in a tough position here. Labor market and economy in general need a bit of TLC but war inflation may be one too many one-time price level increase. Default reaction will be no reaction for now. FOMC...
Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman on the Sanders proposal for a billionaire tax. More on this in the Chartbook Top Links today. https://t.co/985S5J7cYd
Quick update on tariffs in light of this week’s new USTR announcement of over 76 new Section 301 investigations that will likely result in new tariffs being put back in place on substantially all of US imports that were taken...
🇧🇷Conab made very slight trims to its estimates for Brazil's 2025/26 soybean and corn crops. First-crop corn production went up, but that was offset by a reduction to the heavily-exported second crop. Projected soybean exports rose from last month. https://t.co/vXR8g5NOEG
The Fed's balance sheet holdings of US Treasuries is now at October 2024 levels and rising. This is why it's difficult to get secularly bearish on gold. Material balance sheet expansion has begun with asset prices at ATHs and no...
If Iran does this, crude oil prices fall back to bear pre-war levels, and they lose the only leverage they have.
Everyone wants a Hormuz EZ-Pass but Tehran's primary leverage is keeping the Strait closed to *all* traffic. It's the total supply flow lost—not the destinations— that ultimately matters. And no guarantee that person with whom you're negotiating is controlling the drones. https://t.co/xNoSi9YCh5
The Little Ships of Dunkirk except its small cap investors smuggling oil through the Strait of Hormuz https://t.co/grhS8iKYsL
As I research and write my upcoming report on "Defense Innovation", global debt levels have been top of mind. Total global debt surged by $28.8 trillion last year, hitting a record $348 trillion. It was the biggest rise in the...
China may benefit from higher oil prices triggered by Iran war China’s evolution into an “electrostate” may help insulate it from spiking oil prices. https://t.co/oCfxauQUQP
Everyone is talking about the impact of closing the Strait of Hormuz on oil and gas. I haven't seen much discussion of the war's impact on helium. Most people think of helium as being a fun gas you use for...
Horrible Canadian Jobs Report: 84K Full-Time Jobs Disappear But WAIT This Is Even Worse Than It Seems Ever hear of Stagflation? I have lived through Stagflation & it's a mess Simple concept: Inflation accelerates as an economy withers Central Banks can't help
If the Fed cut rates, bond yields would soar. Crude oil prices are surging due to supply constraints. The market needs demand destruction to restore balance. In plain English, there is not enough crude oil to go around because of the...
CPI at 2.4%. Looks fine. Except $WTI is up 68% YTD and none of it is in the data yet. The Fed is trapped. Cut → inflation explodes. Hold → recession deepens. Goldman pushed cut to September. Futures say December 2027. https://t.co/WFbW5IQa0u
Looking at Goldman Sachs Research gives a good timeline for thinking about the Strait of Hormuz * March 4, Hormuz flows would recover in 5 days. * March 9, they pushed that to 10 days * March 11, they extended it again...
EU floats fix for euro use that’s clouding Montenegro’s membership bid https://t.co/eov27Lw9Rv via @jaskuzmanovic @europressos https://t.co/KoM3j0R4qx
Higher tariffs have LONG been associated with more evasion (fraud, piracy, etc). That's why most fiscal/econ projections of tariff effects (eg, @TaxFoundation) account for some evasion/leakage. No surprise historically high/complex tariffs led to tons of fraud. It's baked in.
Closure of the strait is one of the most obvious possible consequences of conflict with Iran...
"Expectations Worsen After Start of Military Conflict in Iran" - U Mich sentiment survey https://t.co/bJlKLotCQ1
US Treasury Allows More Russian Oil Sales to Help Tame Prices. And Putin is laughing as he heads to the bank and thumbs his nose at sanctions. And has needed revenue for his Ukraine war. https://t.co/zWRhldvD7W
The real problem isn't the overcapacity (really state support for further investment in sectors with overcapacity) 301 against China. It is the overcapacity 301s against everyone else. 1/
This is a critical point -- China's JV requirements worked b/c China had to approve investments (so it had leverage) generally speaking & b/c China had relatively high tariffs (25% on autos) and an undervalued exchange rate so there was a...
Looking ahead to next week - we have a laundry list of central bank rate decisions (almost all holding) with critical forecast updates at a critical time - like the #FOMC SEC. Historically, the 12th week of the year is the...
China says US has no right to define overcapacity MOFCOM: "The world economy has long become an inseparable whole. As production and consumption are global, supply and demand must be matched and adjusted from a global perspective. If each country's...
Japan taps oil reserves as Iran war spreads. Could it give China leverage? With Tokyo and Beijing still at loggerheads over Taiwan, analysts warn Japan’s decision exposes its economic vulnerability Yet another "Iran war gives Beijing leverage' piece, short answer....no... https://t.co/nx95uxzmnh
Big pop in pump prices will drag on discretionary spending when wages succumbing to disinflation. And consider starting point of 0.7% GDP coming into 2026 (which today’s GDP revisions demonstrate were driven WAY MORE by fundamentals vs old narrative of...
Pullbacks in Brazilian equities are opportunities, in my view. And no — this isn’t just an energy trade. It’s a derivative of a weakening dollar and a broader commodity bull market. I love a secular thesis. The same applies to metals and mining. H/t to...
The Fed's preferred measure of inflation (Core PCE) moved up to 3.1% in January, the highest level in 22 months. That was the 59th consecutive reading above the Fed's 2% target level. There will be no Fed rate cut next...
big picture % change since U.S. & Israel attacked Iran... crude + $VIX & Bitcoin up the most... https://t.co/lK9FCWy5TY
U.S. GDP grew by only 0.7% in the fourth quarter, compared with the forecast of 1.4%. The pace of growth has slowed noticeably. In such a situation, the Federal Reserve has more room not to keep interest rates high for too...
Good Morning from Germany, where economic forecasts are turning increasingly stagflationary amid the conflict in the Middle East. The Ifo Institute has lowered its growth forecast for Germany for 2026 from 1% to 0.8% and raised its inflation projection from...
Core prices rose 0.36% in January in the PCE index (Nov and Dec price levels were revised up slightly), raising the 12-month inflation rate to 3.1% This index had fallen to 2.6% in April 2025 Headline was +0.28% in January and 2.8%...
Just In: PCE Inflation was 2.8% in January, a bit below expectations. But Core PCE Inflation was 3.1%, the highest since March 2024. **PCE Inflation could easily hit 4% this spring due to the war in Iran** It's notable that PCE...
🎙️ NEW PODCAST 🎧 In the latest episode of the Oil Ground Up podcast, I spoke with @ncitayim for a view on the Iran war from one of my absolute favourite OPEC and Middle East oil analysts, reporting from the Gulf. (Link...
January Core PCE prints at 3.1% as expected - previously 3.0% y/y Headline PCE prints at 2.8% vs 2.9% expected- previously 2.9% y/y
