Fed Swaps Signal Dovish Pivot, Pricing 15bps Cuts by December
JUST IN: Fed swaps indicate a dovish pivot, pricing 15 bps in rate cuts by December.
Iran Still Controls Hormuz Traffic Despite Apparent Openness
Hormuz is not “open” Iran controls who moves, how fast, and at what cost. “Open” means the Strait isn’t being actively shut down—but it is still being controlled, filtered, and weaponized. https://t.co/xmJBlNnGw0
Oil Prices Plunge 9% After Iran Reopens Strait of Hormuz
Oil prices tumble more than 9% as Iran declares Strait of Hormuz open: CNBC https://t.co/mYD8fplFVa
Germany's Trade Deficit Deepens, Hurting Growth
Hello from Germany, where foreign trade remains a drag on growth, w/the trade balance with both China and the US continuing to worsen. https://t.co/q2j2YDHBdM
Analyzing Crisis Outlook,
The world's greatest macro podcast is back. This week: 1) Is the market right to look through this entire crisis? 2) What are the longer-term implications? 3) What do central banks do next?
Diversify Globally for Outsized Returns Beyond the US
Start of 2025: ‘Why should I own anything outside of the US?’ 15 months later: South Korea +179%, Peru +121%, Poland +98% … S&P 500 +18%. The future is unknown. That’s why you diversify. https://t.co/FgV3vruQ0G
US Offers $20 B to Iran for Uranium Surrender
FinancialJuice @financialjuice · 5m https://t.co/jyvyxdXqey US and Iran are negotiating over a three-page plan to end the war, with one element under discussion being that the US would release $20 billion in frozen Iranian funds in return for Iran giving up its stockpile of...
Exploring Economic Forces in Planet Money’s New Book
NEW ODD LOTS - THE PLANET MONEY/ODD LOTS CROSSOVER EPISODE @TheStalwart & I speak with @planetmoney's @mdc and contributor Alex Mayassi about their new book "Planet Money: A Guide to the Economic Forces That Shape Your Life" https://t.co/no4aqQgefa
Record Earnings and Baby Boomers Sustain Spending Despite Negative Savings
Record earnings and resilient consumers keep the economy humming. Even a negative saving rate won't derail spending thanks to Baby Boomers, while rent inflation finally cools. 🟢 Open https://t.co/XJbCE5qL7q
IMF’s U‑turn on US Growth Fuels Market Exuberance
Most frequently asked question from policy makers is why markets are so exuberant. It's this: one year ago, after "Liberation Day," the IMF downgraded US growth sharply (blue), but had to reverse itself fully 6 months later (red). It'll be...
Foreign Capital Floods US, Markets See Unmatched Growth
Foreign flows into the US are at eye-watering levels. There never was a "sell America" trade and there's no "Hedge America" trade either. Markets ignore much of the political volatility and continue to see the US as the single best...
India Slips to Sixth in Global GDP Rankings
India has dropped from 4th to 6th in the global GDP ranking 1. 🇺🇸 United States ~ $32.38 trillion 2. 🇨🇳 China ~ $20.85 trillion 3. 🇩🇪 Germany ~ $5.45 trillion 4. 🇯🇵 Japan ~ $4.38 trillion 5. 🇬🇧 United Kingdom ~ $4.26 trillion 6. 🇮🇳...
Peace Hopes Boost Turkey's Gold Reserves Amid Costly Peg
Prospects of peace are helping Turkey. The central bank's gold holdings rose for the first time in data for the week of April 10. Gold holdings are now down 123 tons since the start of the conflict, which is worth...
Low R* Tied to Declining Labor Share, Growth Raises Both
Blog post from New York Fed president John Williams (and co-author Sophia Cho): "Future periods of very low R* are likely to be accompanied by low levels of the labor share, while increases in the trend growth rate of the...
Shale Boom Empowers US, Reduces Foreign Policy Restraints
In today’s @FT, I argue the Iran war shows how profoundly shale has affected US foreign policy. With the US far more insulated from global shocks, there are fewer restraints to using US economic and military power abroad — with...
Prolonged Conflict Will Drive Economy-Wide Price Hikes
“While Americans are currently seeing higher gas prices and haven't felt it in other areas, Wald says that the longer the conflict continues, the more prices across the economy will increase.” https://t.co/oTyVnpjsgT
World Bank Mulls $2B Loan as Argentina Eyes Dollarization
#ArgentinaWatch 🇦🇷: The World Bank is considering loaning Argentina up to $2B to help refinance its debt. Stuck with junk-rated bonds, Argentina is leaning on multilateral development banks for finance. IT'S TIME FOR THE WORLD’S BIGGEST DEADBEAT TO DITCH THE PESO AND...
Iran's Oil Collapse Sparks Hyperinflation, Forces Negotiations
🇮🇷 Iran Intel Brief | Geopolitical Brief ─────── 20 Iran's oil exports collapse, triggering hyperinflation and currency devaluation. [[1]](https://t.co/r1vr3SzkD3) US assembles target bank for strikes on Iran's regime and IRGC infrastructure. [[2]](https://t.co/X6S6JqbcEy) Iran nears financial ruin from ongoing blockade. [[3]](https://t.co/DNc0KkRop4) Trump directly threatens Iran during phone negotiations. [[4]](https://t.co/ELIWK0qQfb) Iran bypasses US...
ECB Set to Raise Rates in June Amid Inflation Surge
ECB to hike rates in June as 2026 inflation jumps, survey shows https://t.co/H2eauGliEP via @weberalexander https://t.co/VJl5uVHZHh
South Korean Exports Precede U.S. Earnings Growth by Month
"South Korean exports tend to lead U.S. forward earnings growth by roughly one month, largely due to the technology ordering cycle" -Liz Thomas, SoFi
China Will Wait for Opponents’ Strain Before Acting
China doesn’t need to rush. It needs to wait. As pressure builds - on energy, supply chains, and military systems - the advantage shifts. History shows this clearly: major powers don’t always enter early. They enter when everything is stretched. That’s when the impact is decisive. The risk isn’t just...
War's $558B Cost Equals Year‑long Solar Power for Europe
Even at present impacts, the war in the middle east is conservatively projected to reduce global economy by $247 BILLION. The US has spent ~$30 billion; Israel has spent ~$11.5 billion, and Iran has sustained damages of ~$270 billion. The...
Inflation Forces Working Class to Lose Everyday Essentials
5 Things The Working Class Can’t Afford Anymore Due To Inflation And The Cost Of Living Crises https://t.co/H9mtcUTN4g
Sudan Ranks Second Most Miserable Due to Soaring Unemployment
In Hanke’s 2025 Annual Misery Index, Sudan ranks as the SECOND MOST MISERABLE country in the world. SKY-HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT = ECONOMIC MISERY. https://t.co/6zw2PMVR8o
Asia Reconsiders LNG, Turns to Renewables Amid Iran Conflict
Asia thinks twice about plans to embrace LNG as Iran war chokes supply 🇻🇳 Vietnam gas power project may switch to wind/solar +storage 🇹🇭 Thailand pushes for more renewables 🇨🇳 China wants to use more domestic fuel 🇲🇾 Malaysia aims to pump more gas...
Infrastructure Investment Fuels China’s Q1 Growth Amid Weak Consumption
1/3 NYT: "Strong investments in rail lines and other infrastructure offset weak consumer spending and a shrinking trade surplus as the Chinese economy continued to grow in the first three months of the year." This is exactly it. https://t.co/nM9A94Bq3q
Pakistan's Military Government Brokers Abroad, Begs at Home
#PakWatch🇵🇰: Pakistan’s military-led government plays global broker but can’t fix its own economy. Pak has a STUNNING 25 IMF bailouts since 1950. PAK ONLY KNOWS HOW TO DO ONE THING WELL = PASS THE BEGGING BOWL. https://t.co/UEnCmuPatw
China's Stagnant Imports Pose Bigger Trade Challenge than Exports
1/2 Soumaya Keynes notes that while China's surging exports may be a problem for many countries, they are the smaller problem. The bigger problem is that China's imports have barely grown at all. The more general point is that free trade...
U.S. Inflation Stays Hot Despite Hormuz Shock
New at THE OVERSHOOT: "Look Through" the Hormuz Shock if You Want. U.S. Inflation is Still Running Hot. https://t.co/fwWOwt7491 Plus: explaining the CPI-PCE gap https://t.co/0DPKZoAo2y
Rupee Weakness Drops India to Sixth in Global GDP Rankings
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: When measured in dollar terms, India falls from 4th to 6th in global GDP rankings. This slip can be laid at the rupee's doorstep. With the rupee down ~11% in FY26, India’s GDP is smaller in dollar terms. India...
Canada's G7 Membership Defies Its Smaller GDP
And yet, for some strange reason Canada, which has half the UK’s GDP, remains in the G7.
Q1 GDP Hits 5.3% Despite Sector Slowdown
1Q GDP (advanced estimate) 5.3% as projected. Slowdown seen across all sectors. By sectors (vs 4Q25): •Services 5.4% (4Q25: 6.3%), •Manufacturing 5.8% (6.1%), •Construction 7.8% (11.0%), •Agriculture 2.8% (5.4%) •Mining & quarrying -1.1% (+2.0%) Sumber DOSM Still good growth nonetheless. BNM full year...
Russian Oil Revenues Plunge 22% in April Despite Price Rise
MOSCOW, April 16 (Reuters) - Russian state oil and gas revenues, which account for about a quarter of budget income, are set to fall around 22% year on year in April, hit by a jump in subsidies to refineries despite...
Emerging Markets Set for Strong Post‑Conflict Surge
The coming wave for emerging markets will get stronger in the post-conflict era - #emergingmarkets #EM #dollar #capital #liquidity https://t.co/7DuKFyjwOx
Oil Dips on Trump's Israel‑Lebanon Ceasefire Optimism
Oil prices fall as Trump announces Israel-Lebanon ceasefire Oil prices retreated on Thursday after President Donald Trump expressed optimism about the prospect of ending the war with Iran, even as the broader energy market remained on edge over continued disruptions...
Turkey Ranks Third in Misery Due to Soaring Borrowing Costs
In Hanke’s 2025 Annual Misery Index, Turkey ranks as the THIRD MOST MISERABLE country in the world. SKY-HIGH BORROWING COSTS = ECONOMIC MISERY. https://t.co/w0bnKkmBqM
US‑Israeli Iran Conflict Could Rival COVID’s Economic Fallout
Bloomberg reports that Indian officials say that the US-Israeli war on Iran could be as DISRUPTIVE as the COVID pandemic, and the damage to the global economy will LAST FOR YEARS. I agree. https://t.co/czPLAmZmrb
Universal Basic Income Offsets AI Unemployment Without Causing Inflation
Universal HIGH INCOME via checks issued by the Federal government is the best way to deal with unemployment caused by AI. AI/robotics will produce goods & services far in excess of the increase in the money supply, so there will...
China Triples Export Controls, Turns Supply Chains Into Leverage
In a counterattack to America’s aggressive protectionist measures, China has nearly TRIPLED its use of export controls in the last 5 years. Beijing is turning its supply-chain dominance into geopolitical leverage. CHINA'S MESSAGE = IF YOU ATTACK US, WE WILL COUNTERATTACK....
US Sanctions Backfire, China Gains One‑Third of Iran Trade
In 1995, China accounted for virtually ZERO of Iran's trade. Today, it accounts for 1/3. Ill-advised US sanctions on Iran have BACKFIRED. They’ve allowed China to increase its sphere of influence. https://t.co/JUoFF3ACJR
Middle East Conflict Triggers First LNG Export Decline in Decade
Global LNG exports are forecast to DROP this year for the first time in over a decade 🚢⚠️ This is a big turnaround. Analysts expected supply to rise by more than 7% in 2026. But now the Middle East conflict is...
US Assets Attract Foreign Capital Despite Geopolitical Tensions
Markets at all-time highs while investors brace for Middle East escalation. Foreign capital keeps flooding into US assets despite the geopolitical noise. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/6dtFQpMPMO
Venezuela Still Holds World's Highest Inflation at 547%
#VNZWatch🇻🇪: Today, I measure Venezuela's inflation AS THE WORLD'S HIGHEST at a CRUSHING 547.4%/yr. That's down from a peak of 828.6%/yr on February 4th. YOU WON’T FIND THIS IMPORTANT STORY IN THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA. https://t.co/AcOxOkkl80
Strait of Hormuz Disruptions Could Trigger 10M B/D Oil Shortfall
Due to the logistical disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, Wood Mackenzie estimates global markets could be short ~10M b/d. That’s roughly the scale of the demand collapse during the first year of the Covid pandemic. THE WORLD IS FACING A...
US Indices Rise as Indian Volatility Eases
Global Market Update: Gift Nifty -12.00 (-0.05%) 24,159.00 DowJones +114.88 (+0.24%) 48,578.60 Nasdaq +86.69 (+0.36%) 24,102.70 India Vix -0.5025 (-2.69%) 18.1650 S&P 500 +18.14 (+0.26%) 7,041.09
US Oil Exports Surge, but Can’t Replace Hormuz
12.7 mb/d—record U.S. exports. Impressive… but not a replacement for Hormuz. The U.S. can cushion the shock, not carry the system. #OilMarkets #USOil #EnergyCrisis #Geopolitics
US Inflation Just Begun: The Genie Won’t Return
My view in @FortuneMagazine on how US inflation is JUST GETTING STARTED: “It’s at the point now where the inflation genie is clearly out of the bottle and won’t be put back in anytime soon.” https://t.co/40tVOVEUt1
Growth Forecasts Flawed without Energy Reality
Energy-blind economists still see ~2% growth. Tweaking quarters up and down… while ignoring the system that powers GDP. No energy, no growth. The model assumes what it should be questioning. https://t.co/glGkB0Sg9Z #EnergyBlindness #Economics #GDP #EnergyCrisis https://t.co/grFn8ddZUr
IMF Resumes Talks, Opening Funding Path for Venezuela
#Venezuela: The IMF will resume formal contact, potentially paving the way for the acting administration of Delcy Rodriguez to regain access to the lender’s financing @jdorosario @europressos https://t.co/AtCHswbuUA
Majority of Americans Deem Iran War Unjustified
According to a new Ipsos poll, over half of Americans say the decision to take military action in Iran has not been worth it. THE US PUBLIC IS TURNING ON THE WAR PRESIDENT. https://t.co/N4FrgolqXX