Global Economy Social Media and Updates
Global Economy Social Media and Updates
Global Economy Pulse
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
The threat to destroy Kharg Island won't convince Iran to back down. But it might convince China to convince Iran to back down. Oil prices may harm the US, but an actual oil shortage or global recession will hurt China.
Is the gold rush over? The safe haven appeal seems to be fizzling out in gold and silver, the reason is probably something most are overlooking.
It's not just oil and gas. What other crucial commodities are under threat from the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz? Fertilisers, aluminium, plastics, helium and more. https://t.co/H1tRNgqzv6
The geopolitical impact might be negative, but I reckon this brings South Korea even closer to the PRC, probably bullish Chinese tourism to Korea
My take on the difficultly navigating the splintering within Fed leadership amidst tension of inflation and the labor market.
ISRAEL CONTINUES BOMBING LEBANON. Today, for the first time, the Israelis admitted targeting civilian infrastructure. Since March 2nd, Lebanon’s Health Ministry reports that at least 773 Lebanese have been killed by Israeli airstrikes. https://t.co/RtUAb9jgfW
The Supreme Court ruled that Trump’s reciprocal tariffs were ILLEGAL. Now, the US government is slow walking the refunds Americans are due. Once the government illegally taxes you, it’s hard to get a legal refund. https://t.co/crKDhGMBIe
The *number* outside the labor force will organically rise as the population ages. It says *zero* about labor market health. A better measure is the participation *rate* of prime-age individuals, which excludes those likeliest to be retired or students. It's near...
Love them or hate them, prediction markets still have some pointed utility. Betting on a #recession this year has hit a four-month high https://t.co/8ycrvzy65o
The number Wall Street was dreading arrived today. Q4 GDP was revised down to 0.7% — literally half the initial reading — while core PCE inflation climbed to 3.1%, its highest since early 2024. The S&P 500 responded by hitting...
MORE COLLATERAL DAMAGE FROM THE US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN: Fertilizer shipments from the Persian Gulf are stuck. Fertilizer prices have jumped about 30%. US FARMERS ARE STARTING TO TURN AGAINST TRUMP. https://t.co/IwXKoWCUj0
tonight at your cocktail 🍸 party when someone says that interest rates are coming down and the central bank has you covered, tell them the @bankofcanada has dropped rates 7 times since Sep/24 and 5 & 10 yields are higher...
👀 💵Remember the fuss about Bessent conducting an ESF-funded fx swap exchange to support the Argentinian peso back in October 2025? We now have the details of those transactions via the quarterly reporting Congress requires for Treasury’s Exchange Stabilization Fund operations. They...
Since 2000, the average year has seen an 87 bps range between the highest 30-year fixed mortgage rate reading in the calendar year and the lowest reading So far in 2026, that range has been 42 bps Lowest this year: 5.99% Highest...
The PCE-based ecumenical underlying inflation measure was 3.2% in January. This is the median of 24 numbers: 8 concepts measured over 3, 6 and 12 months.
Ocean carriers and new ways to serve the Middle East with the Strait closed. How much of the new approaches will be maintained at war’s end? At the minimum as viable secondary services to keep them functioning.
BEA also released its revised GDP data for Q4, including the Price Index Gross Domestic Purchases, broadest inflation index for domestic inflation, which excludes import prices. It was revised up today to 3.8% for Q4, worst since Q4 2022 https://t.co/ATVMhOch9V...
Martin Wolf on three scenarios for the world economy. This and other topics in the Chartbook Top Links today. https://t.co/tE1z5pmzN6
Distinguished Columbia Univ. Prof. Jeff Sachs on the war in Iran: "Like it or not, the world is going into a profound economic crisis. Israel set this off together with the US, and the world will pay a fearsome price for...
Energy, especially oil, is the backbone of every economy. As I said, a stable oil price, $55 to $70, keeps the global economy running smoothly. But it’s about more than price, it’s about keeping the two-mile stretch of the Strait...
It looks like we will be focused on two things next week: 1. The economic impact of the US-Iran conflict 2. Monetary Policy Look at the laundry list of central bank decisions on tap... All of them are expected to hold, but we...
SPX has already dropped 5%. If it continues to drop to 10%+, we run the risk of entering into the negative feedback loop I have mentioned. As of right now, the negative feedback loop has not happened, as layoffs/initial claims remain...
ECB’s Villeroy says it isn’t the right moment to raise rates next week https://t.co/fTpHRzxngU via @WHorobin https://t.co/zJ4KHlvUAN
Core PCE Inflation Hits 3.1%, Worst in 2 Years, in Unique Twist Blows way past CPI Inflation. Driven by Core Services. Energy spike is still to come. The Fed needs to pay attention https://t.co/ATVMhOch9V https://t.co/fBae4ie2QQ
Dr. Navarro is right: nations' "destabilizing behavior" boosts trade uncertainty and is a "a parasite on the global economy—quietly draining growth through slightly higher [] prices, transportation costs and production expenses year after year."
My take on Iran's biggest advantage in the war: "The US & Israel are making mincemeat out of Iran, but Iranians still hold their key card: the Strait of Hormuz, which remains shut down. A great friend in Dubai said he...
ECB’s Panetta says the private sector is key in cross-border payments https://t.co/dYdaPPXjLl via @Alemrome https://t.co/dkpP47DCou
EU is set to suspend some duty-free sugar imports for a year https://t.co/Air1ME1Muc via @LyubovEUWorld https://t.co/tBY6hUyKNr
More than “Five Asian petrochemical plants have declared force majeure in the past ten days because their naphtha supply was cut off at the Strait of Hormuz. The emergency reserves are crude oil. The shortage is chemicals.”
Why wouldn’t Iran wait until oil hits $120/barrel and then put out the word that if you’re friendly to them and pay them you can get your oil, mafia-style?
"The ongoing rewriting of the rules of world order and the resulting fragmentation of global alliances in defense, trade and finance will raise the security risk premium across asset classes and geographies." @ctorresreporter writes in https://t.co/48SyYtQz8S
In the last week alone, the Pentagon estimates that the US spent $11 BILLION on the Iran war. WARNING: Pentagon estimates are always fiction and way below the real cost. WAR = COSTS AMERICANS AN ARM AND A LEG. https://t.co/49t33aGlwH
Multiple headlines today about the parallels between now and the run-up to the GFC. From Bloomberg: "BofA’s Hartnett Warns Markets Starting to Look Like 2008." From the FT: "Should investors worry about a 2008-style shock?" The key concern: oil prices...
With the Strait of Hormuz closed, the UAE has turned to its rail network. Etihad Rail Freight has transported 459,000 tons of cargo and 7,900 containers in only 9 days. UAE’S INFRASTRUCTURE MITIGATES THE WAR’S COLLATERAL DAMAGE. https://t.co/cRyWRv4gvD
It's clear: the market is genuinely uninterested in entertaining what could go wrong in Iran. They were very happy to ask that question about AI, but for whatever reason, not about this. More on the market's reaction to Iran in...
Good point & good question - what happens to the USD's reserve status if USD commodity contracts are broken on a widespread basis? What's the point of holding USDs if they are declared worthless for commodities when inconvenient? See 2022 seizure of...
Here’s the Financial Times on today's revised data on US fourth-quarter GDP. Similar to the consumer spending figures also released today (please see previous post), Q4 GDP growth now suggests a less dynamic American economy in the run-up to the...
For a $600,000 home, a borrower will now have to pay $130 more per month than what they would have paid the day before the war started when rates were 5.99%
The BEA’s decision to change legal services source data in the PCE from CPI (around 11.3% in Jan) to PPI (1.8% in Jan) cut the core PCE MoM chg by 8bps (would have been 0.44% vs 0.36%). Could defend...
Prediction markets are pricing in 2/3rds chance that U.S. boots are on the ground by the end of the year https://t.co/2kcrfgNU6v
Based on what Glapinski said during his press conference two days ago, all indications are, as I expected, that the plan is to use unrealised gains on the NBP's gold to fund the programme. https://t.co/csre6RPhlr
Distinguished UChicago Prof. John Mearsheimer on the war in Iran: “It’s quite clear that the war is not going well for the United States… and the problem that [Trump] faces is he can’t find an off-ramp.” https://t.co/7LkbA4GAp1
BESSENT: A LONG WAY FROM FED GOING BACK TO QE Talk about blatant BS- the Fed is doing QE
Oil prices still anticipate short war or early re-opening of the Strait Oil traders are still betting war between the United States and Iran will end relatively quickly - or that the United States will soon be in a position to...
If this war lasts much longer, it's not just an oil shock that could destabilize the economy. Food too. "We are facing a risk of stagflation" - @JosephEStiglitz Apple🔊https://t.co/7Ewtn8N1AT Spotify📽️https://t.co/3AKmC9yw2d YouTube📽️https://t.co/yR3j6zbCrB https://t.co/hYJLSPL2uF
TRUMP PANICS and orders the release of 172 million barrels of oil from America's strategic petroleum reserve (SPR). This will amount to a drop in the bucket. SPR is a classic OUTDATED GOV'T WHITE ELEPHANT. It's time to liquidate it and shut it...
US economic data released today suggests that, leading up to the Middle East War, hitherto robust consumer spending had begun to soften. Meanwhile, inflation — as measured by core PCE, the Federal Reserve’s favorite measure — remained sticky, holding well...
Inflation was hearing up even before the US-Iran conflict began. Bad news for the economy and bad news for the Fed
How to interpret the rise in bond yields across the G10? Here's a guess: the market has priced in moderate oil disruption that marginally raises upside inflation risks and lowers probability of central bank easing this year. If at some...
As oil prices surged on Thursday during the intensifying Iran war, President Donald Trump again urged Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to cut interest rates, even as markets increasingly bet that rising energy costs would keep inflation elevated and delay...
