ENI Urges EU to Postpone Russian LNG Ban.
Italy’s top gas importer has proposed delaying the EU ban on Russian LNG to help ease the fallout from the Hormuz closure 🇮🇹🇷🇺 "I think it's necessary to suspend the ban that will come into effect on January 1, 2027 ," said ENI CEO Descalzi, as Europe's gas balance will worsen https://t.co/1HPncgve1s
Fear of Worse Before Better Drives Market Uncertainty
I think personally, that the probabilities are like this: - Trump will TACO by end of day today or tomorrow saying no we like Iran now, so that the blockade is not needed, so that his cronies can benefit from the...
Peace‑talk Collapse Fuels Oil, Yields; USD Firm, Asia Soft
Macro: Peace‑talk collapse lifts oil & yields; USD firm, Asia soft. Drivers: Strait blockade, energy spike, tighter Fed. Risks: inflation, earnings. Trade: short EM equities vs USD. —V. Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Markets Stumble Amid Middle East Perfect Storm
The market is reacting to a "perfect storm" of geopolitical and operational shocks centered in the Middle East.
China Emerges Dominant in EVs, Batteries, Solar
Thanks to the US-Israeli war on Iran, China had ended up a big winner. Now, to diversify away from oil, everyone wants more EV’s, more battery storage, and more solar panels. CHINA DOMINATES IN EV'S, BATTERY STORAGE AND SOLAR PANELS. https://t.co/U6TRMZlyBj
Price Revolution: Merchants Thrive, Wage Earners Suffer
𝐖𝐢𝐧𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐋𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐏𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐑𝐞𝐯𝐨𝐥𝐮𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 Like all economic shifts, the effects weren’t equal. 🏆 Winners: ¬ Merchants and traders (prices rose faster than costs) ¬ Debtors (they repaid loans with “cheaper” money) ¬ Landowners who could adjust rents 😢 Losers: ¬ Wage earners (income lagged...
Oil Spikes Above $100, Fueling Inflation and Tighter Monetary Policy
💥 OIL JUMPS ABOVE $100 US-Iran talks broke down, so Trump ordered a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz which carries about 20% of the world’s oil. Oil prices shot up fast. Higher oil = higher inflation = tighter money. https://t.co/GRzeLLPize
White House Delays Hormuz Reopening, No Rush
As I was saying weeks ago… the White House is in no rush to reopen Hormuz
Gazprom EU Exports Surge 21%, Russia Hits 15% Share
Gazprom Exports to the EU Jump 21% Y/Y in March as Hormuz Crisis Tighten LNG Supply Russia's gas share in EU gas imports jumps to 15.1% (with 8 Charts) https://t.co/0WqJLzqydw
Middle East War Slashes Asian LNG Deliveries to 2020 Lows
The war in the Middle East is choking LNG supply to Asia 🚢⚠️ Deliveries to Asia fell the the lowest level since 2020, when the Covid pandemic crashed demand Not a single LNG shipment has gone through Hormuz since the war began...
Oil Spikes 8% After Trump Blocks Iranian Ports
Oil prices have surged roughly 8% following news of President Trump's announced blockade of Iranian ports. Brent crude is currently trading around $102 per barrel. Was above $104 earlier.
Trump Imposes 10 A.m. Iran Oil Sales Ban, Allies Enforce
JUST IN: President Trump announced a 10 a.m. oil sales ban on Iran, with cooperating nations ensuring it's enforced.
Trump's Hormuz Policy Reversal Fuels Oil Market Volatility
JUST IN: Trump's policy flip from freeing the Strait of Hormuz to blocking it is stirring oil market volatility.
Iran Holds Untapped Leverage Against US Maritime Blockade
JUST IN: Iran's official warns Tehran has untapped leverage to counter the US maritime blockade.
Japan 10‑Year Yield Peaks 2.49% Amid Middle East Tensions
JUST IN: Japan's 10-year bond yield surges to 2.49%, its highest since 1997, amid Middle East tensions and the US Hormuz blockade driving inflation fears.
Oil Plunge Triggers All‑time Low Consumer Sentiment.
Oil crashed $19 in a single day. The ceasefire bought two weeks. Then Islamabad collapsed after 21 hours. Now it's a full naval blockade. Consumer sentiment just hit an ALL-TIME LOW. The binary shifted. https://t.co/m51ct0GA5Q
US Blockade Pushes Oil Above $100, WTI to $135
JUST IN: U.S. oil prices surged 8% above $100 a barrel after the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, with WTI crude oil projected to hit $135 per barrel this year.
Second Inflation Wave Revives Commodity Prices
My latest monthly client memo: The Second Wave of Inflation and the Commodity Comeback https://t.co/4L7dEvdDn4 https://t.co/eRCYHTHapt
Dollar Spikes as US‑Iran Talks Fail, Safe‑haven Demand Rises
JUST IN: The US dollar surges after US-Iran peace talks collapse, driving a fresh demand for safe-haven assets.
Hormuz Blockade Fuels Energy Surge Ahead of Fed Data
Middle East tensions are pushing energy prices higher as the Strait of Hormuz blockade hits markets. All eyes on inflation data and Fed speakers this week. 🟢 Open https://t.co/cLaM5AJanN
Read the Calendar Before Charts: 10‑Minute Market Primer
Most traders obsess over charts 📊 but ignore what actually moves markets first. Here’s the 10-minute morning routine I’ve used for 20+ years to read the calendar, headlines, and signals from bonds, oil, and gold before any trade 🎯 https://t.co/jEK13r3Nke https://t.co/jEK13r3Nke
IMF: Global Prices Won’t Fall Quickly Post‑Iran War
IMF chief says global prices will take time to recede after the Iran war https://t.co/tt7W6Soq9j via @georgiemckay4 https://t.co/hJV5hhgiEn
US Hormuz Blockade Sparks Surge in Oil, Gas Prices
US military says it’ll begin a Hormuz blockade at 10am ET Monday. Oil prices +8%, NatGas +13% early Monday in Asia. Also, vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz shows the “highest” volumes since the war began (“highest” is of course...
Authoritarianism’s Planning Edge: Democracies Must Adapt
China embraced capitalism, opened up to trade, invested in infrastructure, cracked down on corruption, and has the most human capital of any nation on earth. Authoritarianism did help in being able to create long term plans and execute on them....
Asia-Pacific Oil Prices Break $100 Barrier Again
As expected, oil prices are surging higher in Asia-Pacific trading, with both Brent and WTI quoted above $100 a barrel again. #markets #economy #oil #energy
NQ Holds 25k Amid US Escalation Risk, Iran Threatens Downside
NQ found support at 25k, but heavy AF activity points to a US escalation. ⚔️ Market might shrug that off, BUT if Iran’s response leads to more damage in the Gulf, we’re trading lower. Watch the headlines. 📊🔥 https://t.co/9EMlv6Ot1R
Tehran’s Hormuz Blockade Outlasts Trump’s Fleeting Economic Leverage
Markets vs Blockade Guess who wins? A hormuz blockade bets on the only thing Trump doesn't have--time, writes @OpenSquareCap The global economy gives Trump a week or two Tehran can wait longer #Hormuz #EnergyWar #Geopolitics #Oil
Trump's Iran Oil Blockade Threatens Global Supply, Economy
Quoted alongside @reziemba in this @WSJ writeup on the implications of Trump’s threatened blockade of Iranian oil exports and what it means for the oil supply—and global economic—outlook. https://t.co/ndEafAkcaG
Oil Climbs Past $105 as US Blocks Iranian Ports
Oil prices surge above $105 as U.S. Navy to blockade Iran’s ports after peace talks fail: https://t.co/lRknunNbMI
Hormuz Closure Threatens Petrodollar for First Time in 50 Years
No deal this weekend. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed Oil prices are surging again. U.S. about to blockade New @moronomics podcast episode breaks down what this means and why this is the biggest threat to the “petrodollar” in 50 years...
Iran, Houthis Threaten Two Oil Chokepoints, Spiking Prices
Iran to Trump: we’ll see you & raise you Iran has only to have the Houthis disrupt Bab al-Mandab too writes @GMonroyEnergy Two chokepoints, one overstretched navy, and oil spikes hard So much winning #Oil #Hormuz #RedSea https://t.co/bgBh1UdjUZ
From Sanctions Relief to Blockade in Three Weeks
I’m old enough to remember when the Trump administration eased US sanctions on Iranian oil. “In essence, we will be using the Iranian barrels against Tehran to keep the price down,” US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said at the time....
Blockade Excludes Non‑Iranian Ports, Allowing Global Oil Access
An important nuance: The blockade doesn't apply to ships that enter or leave non-Iranian ports. So China and everyone else are free to pick up barrels in Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait... unless *Iran* tries to stop them.
U.S. to Block All Iranian Port Shipping Monday
U.S. says will start blockading all maritime traffic from Iranian ports (both in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman) from Monday, April 13, at 10am Eastern Time.
Forint Surges 1.9% to Three‑year High Post‑Orbán
#Hungary’s Forint jumped 1.9% against the Euro to a 3y high after voters ousted Orbán. https://t.co/k3NT819BFI https://t.co/UvqaDvox2t
Trump Escalates Middle East Crisis with Hormuz Blockade
Do you understand what happened in the past 12 hours? > President Trump ordered US Navy to block all ships entering or leaving the Strait of Hormuz effective immediately. > President Trump threatened s 50% tariff on China if it sends any...
Net‑Zero's True Cost: Inflation Risks Explored with ECB Governor
For this week's episode of @cleaninguppod I sat down with Pierre Wunsch, Governor of the National Bank of Belgium and member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank. What is the real cost of net zero? Is it...
Hormuz Offset Claims Exaggerated, Real Capacity Far Lower
Bunch of people have asked so to answer directly: these Hormuz offset numbers are entirely bunk. Absolutely fair to be optimistic about the war ending and Hormuz reopening, but it’s fundamentally flawed to say we’re offset the Hormuz supply loss and...
Market Sentiment Set to Plunge as US‑Iran Talks Collapse
My article on market conditions, themes and top event risk for the week ahead: How Bad Will Market Sentiment Get as US-Iran Peace Talks Fall Apart? https://t.co/5Qd3Zkb5xY https://t.co/ifGXjJ2Scu
Global Debt Spikes 33%, Crippling Downturn Response
“This is the worst place we’ve been in 20 years,” or probably “longer than that,” for communal capacity to combat a widespread downturn: Harvard economist Carmen Reinhart. Global debt has surged by one third in the past 6 years, to...
Blockade Cuts Iran's Oil Revenue, Exposes Economic Fragility
A blockade collapses the blue bars below to zero. This collapses Iran's business model, which means there's no money for imports and the red bars go to zero. Iran is a gas station masquerading as an Islamic Republic. Time to...
Orbán's 16‑year Rule Ends with Crushing Defeat
BUDAPEST — The 16-year reign of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán looks set to end after a crushing election loss on Sunday that will send political shockwaves from Washington to Moscow. @politico https://t.co/lhtXRbEih2 https://t.co/4Dq8n5Qj76
Oil Prices Likely to Top $115, Stay Long
According to @Polymarket, there is now a 64% chance that US oil prices will exceed $115/barrel this month. I agree. Stay long oil. AMERICANS SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR DAMAGES TO TRUMP. https://t.co/NCKsBE3xYX
Energy Drives March CPI Spike, Spillover Risks Loom
WEI LI BlackRock: Energy contributed the most to March's CPI surge. How much will the bleed-through be to the rest of the economy? https://t.co/OPcuN31SGl
Saudi Arabia Gains as Oil Prices Surge, Rival Vanishes
The House of Saud wins with higher oil prices and the elimination of a regional competitor
Egypt's Inflation Surge Mirrors Excess Money Supply Growth
Egypt’s inflation rate is 15.2%/yr. Egypt's money supply is growing at 16.9%/yr. That's ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth rate of 11.1-15.1%/yr, a rate consistent w/ Egypt's 3-5%/yr inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/Daeo3HbmBW
Hormuz Blockade Threatens Oil Supply, Markets Await China or Trump
Strait of Hormuz blockade is live 🚢❌ 20% of world oil = gone 🛢️ Equities gap down 📉 Oil gap up 📈 $115 WTI on the table 🎯 One question matters: does China blink first or does Trump? 🇨🇳🇺🇸 Trade...
US Misunderstands Existential Threat to China, Russia, Iran Supply Chains
100%. Virtually no one in US seems to understand a) This is existential to China & Russia as well as Iran b) What that potentially implies for global supply chains
Turkey Drains Securities and Gold to Fund FX Intervention
Indeed. Turkey sold a ton of fx (essentially draining its securities portfolio) and sold/ swapped gold to generate even more fx to fund its massive March intervention ... 1/x https://t.co/RsDslEBwvB
UK Rejects US Hormuz Blockade, Seeks Navigation Coalition
UK says it will not be involved in U.S. blockade of the Hormuz Strait, and is currently "urgently working with France and other partners to put together a wide coalition to protect the freedom of navigation." — Sky