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Tuesday recap
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Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
Sen Lindsey Graham promises US will gain oil/money from Iran war: "We are going to make a ton of money... Venezuela and Iran have 31% of the world’s oil reserves. We’re going to have a partnership with 31% of the known reserves. This is China’s nightmare" https://t.co/zRJ3BAYZO0
Unclear whether President Trump referred to the already announced easing of Russian oil sanctions for India, or something new. In any case, this is what he said: "We have sanctions on some countries. We're going to take those sanctions off till...
*WTI OIL DROPS AS MUCH AS 10% TO $85.52/BBL AT START OF [Tuesday] TRADING *TRUMP SAYS IRAN WAR WILL END 'SOON' BUT NOT THIS WEEK Not to be callous ... but the market really cares about oil tankers moving through the Strait...
War might end “soon” - Trump. Oil price menjunam semula bawah $100. According to Bloomberg: “…mounting economic and political pressures..” Question is - can we believe him?
Is it feasible that Maduro was taken off the board to use Venezuela as some sort of insurance policy against attacking Iran leading to tighter oil supply or is that silly
President Trump just finished speaking on the Iran situation now. Here is a summary of his key comments. He says the war will end very soon (but not this week) and he is disappointed by the new supreme leader's appointment. Oil...
Shutting down Hormuz the first time is like withdrawing from a golf tournament the first time. The second time becomes soooo much easier and will happen with much less provocation.
Carney’s Early Iran Misstep — Time to Reset Stick with this interview. It's long, complex, and not always easy to understand, but at the end of it I felt like I understood the dilemma facing MarkJCarney and Canada over Iran...
The geopolitical rollercoaster that is 2026 continues and is impacting global oil prices. #canada🇨🇦 #canada #trade #energy
President Trump’s push for “America’s Maritime Dominance” aims to break China’s grip on global shipbuilding. But shipyards are only one piece of maritime power. Th real contest runs through chokepoints, naval force, commercial fleets, and the insurance and financial systems...
Whether these arguments from the Iranian Foreign Minister are sincere or not, Iranian leaders seem to understand U.S. politics far better than American leaders understand Iranian politics.
As I noted in this thread, no oil infrastructure was damaged. This was all about waiting for a resolution to gets the ships moving again. Looks like that happened and the market is pricing in the end of the war. Headlines * TRUMP...
"The Slow Climb: How Tariffs Gradually Raised Retail Prices in 2025" via @federalreserve https://t.co/HJiDIY3j8v "consumers are in fact paying higher retail prices because of tariffs" 😮 https://t.co/SbgM6kbcPA
WTI crude oil fell below $90 per barrel after President Donald Trump told CBS that the Iran war is “very complete, pretty much.” Earlier in the day, WTI had surged to a peak of $119. https://t.co/ElHrOuNRmc
If you’re wondering how the stock market closed green after oil dropped 30% Here’s what just changed: > President Trump just signaled the war with Iran may be nearing an end > G7 nations are reportedly considering releasing up to 400M barrels from...
OUT NOW - Michael Howell @crossbordercap on: - why he expects 2026 to be bad for risk assets - why he's bullish bonds & Chinese stocks - Gold, Bitcoin, & yield curve, and "Turbulence" phase of Liquidity cycle Apple🔊https://t.co/7bjoJLeYdJ Spotify📽️https://t.co/plpNPVQicu https://t.co/1mD9VJPm5e
A different cut of the same idea, using options prices that reference 3-month SOFR via the Atlanta Fed's tracker In the one week between Feb. 27 (the day before the first strikes on Iran) and Mar. 6, the probability of at...
The oil market thinks Trump just TACO’d (I’m less convinced, but let’s see) A $30 price swing in a day, helped by expectations of a big strategic oil stock release. Such larks. Oil tumbles to $90 as Trump says Iran war...
The oil price isn't one of those things that spirals infinitely up. At current levels near $100, a big risk premium prices the temporary standstill of tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. You can bet Trump is working like crazy...
The betting market remains skeptical about the end date to the US-Iran conflict being in sight. Interesting that he is calling it an outright 'war'. Executive branch doesn't have the power to declare war. https://t.co/cUBtf0lV7M
I am glad that I have remained patient so far. If you had jumped the bandwagon on oil this morning, you would have been 20% down ish by now. I know the below is not a guarantee, but I stick...
Italy’s Giorgetti cautions the ECB against the temptation of raising interest rates https://t.co/CasNsOy0KU via @Alemrome https://t.co/z3ATeFnSqp
🆓 Monday links: bottoming on bad news, the K-shaped economy, and the rise of GDP jamming. https://t.co/W6jd47jqkH chart: https://t.co/sRyFpUbgLf https://t.co/oOvSgydCoj
Weaponise EU market against China or face manufacturing collapse: official think tank EUISS study urges bloc to “preserve and create technological chokepoints”, diversify markets away from China – in both instances mirroring long-term moves made by Beijing – to give it...
Surging oil prices have sparked fears that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East could inflict steep financial costs on Americans "I am very concerned this could tip us into a recession if it persists," one economist tells @nytimes https://t.co/VkqGBNMgAR @TonyRomm...
Very good discussion with Japan's Minister of Economy, Trade & Industry Ryosei Akazawa @ryosei_akazawa about recent developments in the Middle East and the implications for Japan's energy security We discussed the available options, including a possible @IEA stock release https://t.co/rCnXYDGIHK
Very constructive meeting with India's Minister for Petroleum & Natural Gas Hardeep Singh Puri @HardeepSPuri We discussed the latest developments in energy markets amid the conflict in the Middle East and the options on the table. We agreed to continue to...
Brazil’s CAPE ratio is approaching one of the most undervalued levels in its history. The Brazilian equity market is nearly as cheap as it was at major historical bottoms — the early 2000s and the political crisis of 2015–16. This is a...
I've just done a deep dive on how the Polish central bank's gold purchases may have been intended for wartime financing from day one. When you look at promo NBP materials, the dog whistles were pretty brazen in retrospect. That...
Putin says Russia should take advantage of the sky-high oil prices after US-Israeli attacks on Iran. Russia should redirect supplies to Europe elsewhere, he adds. “If we shift our focus right now to the markets that need more supplies, we might...
How the Iran War Will Kill Oil and Gas O&G now have a competitor: electricity. High prices + volatility encourage consumers to buy check out the competition. Especially in the Global South. Buckle up, Canada. MarkJCarney #cdnpoli #abpoli #bcpoli https://youtu.be/dDbCM-M2UWA
Curve shape (white) was completely uncorrelated with level of rates through first week of Iran conflict. That trend changed overnight when 10s peaked ~4.20%. Since then, have seen notable flattening. 1/ https://t.co/zHYcDKsXG6
My take on the effect that increasing oil prices have on inflation: "There is a lot of narrative being spun in the newspapers saying that oil price increases will cause inflation. No. It simply means that the price of oil will...
MOSCOW, March 9 (Reuters) - Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Monday that the Iran war had triggered a global energy crisis and cautioned that oil production dependent on transport through the Strait of Hormuz could soon come to a...
Why Spain’s Sanchez is standing up to Trump on the Iran war https://t.co/Jq0rQAMH0R via @rorihuela https://t.co/sF1Tq53V7f
Oil tankers transiting Strait of Hormuz ‘must be very careful,’ Iran foreign ministry warns: CNBC $USO $XLE
france sending warships to the med/red sea and potentially toward hormuz — framing it as “strictly defensive” and about freedom of navigation. message: europe won’t be (completely) sidelined as us–israel–iran escalation hits shipping lanes and pushes oil toward $100+.
China Says Opposes Any Targeting of New Iran Leader "China opposes interference in other countries' internal affairs under any pretext, and Iran's sovereignty, security, and territorial integrity should be respected," he said when asked about the threats against the new leader. ...
USD stablecoins guarantee a digital euro; now we have even more proof of this from Spain: “Europe needs a sovereign payment architecture,” and “the noticeable increase in US stablecoin-based financial intermediation increases the urgency.” Spain Pushes for 2028 Launch of...
Read @JavierBlas on the oil pipeline that could ameliorate the closure of the Straight of Hormuz https://t.co/hfkrPgLpIy https://t.co/BIgHZhk6rA
China is in the grip of a DEFLATION. In February, its Producer Price Index (PPI) was NEGATIVE at -0.9%/yr. If that's not bad enough, China's PPI has been negative for 3 STRAIGHT YEARS. DEFLATION = AN ANEMIC MONEY SUPPLY GROWTH STORY. https://t.co/HLuNvjATSK
The % of workers who plan to quit their jobs has fallen to its lowest level since the start of the NY Fed's survey. People who have a job are not giving them up right now https://t.co/p7kO4PdQ2A
My chat with @SoumayaKeynes about oil on the @FT podcast. When we did this on Thursday, Brent was $83 and there was lots of humming and hawing if they can go higher. We discussed the shutdown of the Strait of...
We will of course need careful empirical analysis to be sure, but this is a very strong and telling break in the time series. https://t.co/r6avYSPdM6
In the last two trading days, the Brazilian Real has outperformed every other EM currency. This parallels price action after Russia invaded Ukraine. The same terms of trade shock that took $/BRL to 4.50 then is happening again now. Prime...
Taiwan’s premier made a personal trip to Japan and appeared in public to watch the island’s baseball team in action, a rare visit that risks deteriorating Tokyo’s ties with China further https://t.co/CqBObJKdDb
If the war ended today with Iran's complete and total surrender, Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic would take two weeks to return to normal and Gulf oil production two months to get back to pre-war levels. And that's optimistic. https://t.co/o3CKt61EZn
#TurkeyWatch🇹🇷: Before the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran, the economic performance of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Iran were virtually identical. The only economy in the region that boomed was Turkey. A GRAPH IS WORTH A THOUSAND WORDS. https://t.co/1l6xvZVSll
Some weekly inputs are coming into our nowcast-model today, and it looks pretty painful to be honest. Especially in growth terms. The shipping/trucking/export/import volumes look bad. Really bad. So this is starting to impact the economy (already)..
Everyone is suddenly talking about stagflation… but most people have no idea what that actually means for the stock market #stockmarket #stocks #stagflation
