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Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
‼️Global debt CRISIS is reaching INSANE levels: World debt SPIKED +$29 trillion in 2025, to $348 trillion, the highest EVER. This was the 2nd LARGEST annual increase in HISTORY. Global government debt hit a record $107 trillion.👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/us-stocks-dropped-amid-rising-ai-and-geopolitical-uncertainty-weekly-market-recap-trading-week-09-20-a312
As they said at the White House, "who could have imagined Iran would block the Straits of Hormuz?"
#IranWatch🇮🇷: Today, I measure Iran’s inflation at a PUNISHING 66.2%/yr. That's the world's THIRD HIGHEST INFLATION RATE. I remain the only reliable source of inflationary measures in Iran. https://t.co/8Dw75zObyw
⭕️A large number of LNG carriers were diverted from Europe to Asia. Will China restarts buying US LNG? Map form @Kpler I added the red arrows
Oil is the only commodity on Earth used in every single sector of every economy. Even our adversaries need it. The Strait of Hormuz is two miles wide, and Iran is threatening to mine it. Whether securing it costs $2...
By the way, by giving a waiver for Russian crude on water to be sold freely on the market, Trump single-handedly eliminated the "price cap." The "price cap" was one of the lowest-IQ policy decisions in recent years.
Betting markets are seeing the probability of a US-Iran ceasefire by the end of the month deflate to an extremely skeptical 15%... https://t.co/Brj4lTcqSK
The second map (most of the world moving towards China and away from the US) is post-tariffs but pre-invasion-of-Iran. Will be interesting to see how this evolves. Probably not in a good direction for the US.
If true, this is actually a face-saving withdrawal by the Iranians. It lets them pretend to be mean to US & Israel without actually blocking the strait. But I doubt it’s true. https://t.co/xCTeY2zGRE
I know it won't come in time for the global economy to avoid a recession, but the world WILL eventually pry open Hormuz one way or another. Iran won't have this card indefinitely. This is not the White Mountains of...
Article and podcast episode: The ‘TACO Trade’: How Markets Can Shape Tariff, War and Financial Stability Policy https://t.co/O3ySkt05wf
Any country except for US and Israel can pass through Strait of Hormuz, Iranian Foreign Minister says: NY Post
Because some folks seem confused: I think it’s really bad that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is halted, and it would be better for pretty well everyone (except Russia) if traffic resumes It will be utterly miserable for billions of...
A barrel of oil lost anywhere is a barrel lost everywhere. It’s a global market and acute scarcity in the Middle East/Asia will inevitably spike prices in North America as markets work to incentivize cargoes to fill the hole. US foreign policy...
"Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Saturday said the Strait of Hormuz is open and that the strategic route is only closed to the US and Israeli vessels" Are ships and tankers moving? If not, then where is the problem? Look...
IEA just released 400M barrels from emergency reserves. That's one-third of their total stockpile. For context, the largest prior release was during the 1973 oil crisis. This is not normal. $WTI https://t.co/pSOwsqWZJ0
A case study in how tariffs can change the bilateral trade balance but not the global trade balance -- the US is now importing a ton of computers, but essentially zero of those are registering in customs as Chinese made 1/...
Emerging markets down 14% from February highs. The EM rally was built on dollar weakness. Then the Strait of Hormuz closed and oil rewrote the script. Oil at $100 is devastating for importers like India, South Korea, and Turkey. Even exporters need...
🚨Mar 14 Hormuz Update🚨 1️⃣Confirmed attacks: 20 2️⃣Attacks last 24 hrs:0 3️⃣Passage last 24 hrs: 2 4️⃣Average passage: 138 5️⃣Electronic interference: widespread https://t.co/nQ4ZTet45o
For those of us fortunate enough to be far away and out of the line of fire, the impacts of the war in Iran are economic. Why is the war making the price of so many things more expensive? #canada🇨🇦...
Tune in tomorrow when I’ll be discussing today’s energy crisis created by the Iran war with @FareedZakaria on GPS @CNN.
Premium Users - Macro Week in Review/Preview March 13, 2026, on the blog and here https://t.co/2iKkxzCJa9
YARDENI: “.. three days after the war began, we concluded it might last longer, leading to a 10%-15% correction, and warned that we could not rule out a bear market. “.. we've become concerned that a weakening US economy might exacerbate...
A mental model for how to think about the current oil shock: As I said I’m sure 10 different economists have 10 differing econometric models on what price that flip occurs but you get the idea
Ugly game theoretics at play in Iran. Teheran has found its pain point in Hormuz, Russia is happy as it gets to sell its 'sanctioned oil', China is flapping like a kite in a hurricane, Europe has an incentive to...
Don't stare at spot noisy reported economic data. Answer these questions at a high level. Directionally not precisely. Is the U.S. labor market healthy and labor is in demand Is the population growing Is the 6 month to a...
🚨Strait of Hormuz Disruptions🚨 Implications of Global Trade and Development by @UNCTAD 1️⃣Energy Surge 2️⃣Soaring Shipping Crisis 3️⃣Insurance Spikes 4️⃣Fertilizer & Food Security 5️⃣Insurance Spikes & Higher Borrowing Costs https://t.co/SxnLDTDmwG
The biggest issue the US is dealing with right now isn’t Iran — it’s the cost of its own debt. Plain and simple: The government can’t afford a war at this stage, and higher interest rates are becoming an existential threat. https://t.co/mHVMQJMS82 https://t.co/yW1dmgDC7i
It actually doesn’t make it a moot point. Bc single most important variable in global markets is relative level of fiat currencies. If you only care about gold, consider yourself fortunate to be in the .0001% of people on the...
Catch me at 8:05am on the economic impact of the war in the Middle East #bbcwales #sundaysupplement Listen at: https://t.co/WBmMlC57rn https://t.co/TZIU8SNTCQ
Excellent. In FTPL, one can interpret the slope as "what fraction of the deficits did people think would be repaid by later surpluses or lower interest costs?" and the error term as variation from a common value. A slope <...
There are parallels now to the lead-up to the last financial crisis, writes @JeffSnider_EDU Leverage is high, funds are gating withdrawals, and officials say it’s contained. Now add an oil shock. The range of outcomes is narrowing fast #OilMarkets #FinancialCrisis #CreditMarkets...
Free trade for my inputs; tariffs for my competitors. A tale as old as time.
Trump's attack on Kharg was an act of desperation He needed a quick "win" to offset the perception that he's lost control of the war Opening Hormuz could take months or longer Oil & financial markets won't wait The War IS out of his...
Paying in Yuan for Hormuz passage doesn't work, writes @biancoresearch Oil markets run on liquidity and deep capital markets. China’s financial system can’t absorb global oil flows, There’s no way to verify settlement currency at sea. #OilMarkets #Hormuz #DollarSystem #Geopolitics
One of the things I learned after Russia invaded Ukraine is that many commodity analysts are in bed with oil producers and ship owners. They forecast terrible oil price spikes and financial Armageddon to keep the West from being tough....
Wrong, it's not an 'ancient and rampant evil.' It's blowback and the tragic and predictable result of U.S. and Israeli foreign policy. Can we stop pretending that our actions have no consequences?
Did the Greek tanker owner pay in Chines yuan? What will Iran’s payment demand mean to the petrodollar? And the quantity of ships stuck in the Strait?
Iran telling civilians to get out of UAE ports. After the attack on Kharg. What will it mean to maritime, the Strait, and oil?
Further proof we have an inflation problem, even before Iran. Core PCE services (ex-housing) shows more and more broadening out of higher prices. Proportion of 105 categories with 3%+ y/y inflation Dec '19: 26% Jun '22: 69% Jan '25: 53% Jan '26: 59% https://t.co/nA65sTTb6A
"One thing becoming clear: tariffs on foreign imports didn't result in an increase in manufacturing payrolls (and may have directly resulted in the opposite)." 🙀 https://t.co/zvrbKgPxg3 https://t.co/h5DLBYPjf6
‘The largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market’: IEA’s take on the Hormuz crisis https://t.co/H9zKo9tCi4
"The US Department of Commerce has cut anti-dumping duties on 13 Italian pasta brands following an investigation into alleged export undercutting, Italy's Foreign Ministry announced." https://t.co/2KrLcSuyUY https://t.co/7S8ssbunhj
Today felt like a textbook risk-off session. Weak GDP revision. VIX back above 20. Short-term breadth rolling over. Dollar up. Rates pushing toward 4.3%. Oil surging. In CHART THIS I walk through what’s actually changing — and what isn’t. Six viewer questions. Clear levels. No drama. Watch...
GS: A moderate growth shock could see the S&P 500 drop to 6300, while a severe oil supply shock could trigger a 19% decline to 5400. https://t.co/87Poznn4vR
New weekly drops. The war's disruption shapes the investment climate. Hawkish holds by seven of the 8 G10 central banks that meet. RBA could hike. Brazil had indicated a cut before the war. Still seems reasonable....
GS: A hawkish rate move has coincided with a decline in the market's pricing of economic growth https://t.co/JO5RIgmjDP
I missed this project44 press release from earlier this week - Strait of Hormuz Closure Triggers 360% Surge in Ocean Freight Diversions https://t.co/u3NrIui3y3 project 44 Insights - https://t.co/fZoIuMEoDt
Iranian tankers back to loading at Kharg this morning despite yesterday’s US strikes on the island, which currently stages the vast majority of Iranian exports.
Week Ahead: Eight of the G10 Central Banks Meet, Maybe One Moves: The Middle East War dominates the investment climate. The inflationary implications are first order considerations and there has been a large swing in expectations of central bank policy…...
