Venezuela Tops Misery Index: Hyperinflation, Unemployment Crisis
In Hanke's 2025 Annual Misery Index, Venezuela ranks as THE WORLD’S MOST MISERABLE COUNTRY. This is thanks to 35.1% unemployment, 475.3%/yr inflation, a 9.4% bank-lending rate & a 1.6% contraction of real GDP/capita. It’s time for VNZ to DUMP the bolivar & replace with the USD. https://t.co/hzf6Gu6fPu
1970s Fed Hikes Sparked Credit Crunch, Causing Stagflation
What a surprise (/s)… the Fed hiking rates in 1970s caused supply contraction and price increases… One funeral at a time…
CMA CGM Leads Persian Gulf Ships Toward Strait of Hormuz
🚨STRAIT OF HORMUZ🚨 Ships in the Persian Gulf are making a run for the Strait led by some CMA CGM containerships. https://t.co/fiqj7JehaH
Carney Seeks C$1 Trillion, Invites Top Investors to Toronto
Carney has been zig-zagging the globe trying to lure investors into Canada. It looks like a big test of whether his efforts will bear fruit is coming: he's invited the world's biggest investors to Toronto in September. He's looking for...
North Asia EPS Upgrade Raises MSCI EM Forecast
GS: Upgrades to North Asia EPS growth push our 2026/27 MSCI EM EPS growth forecast to 34%/14% from 23%/13% https://t.co/jK4UGxp0LY
Fannie Mae Predicts Steady 6.1% Mortgage Rates Through 2027
#NEW Fannie Mae's revised forecast expects the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to average... 6.2% in Q3 2026 6.1% in Q4 2026 6.1% in Q1 2027 6.1% in Q2 2027 6.1% in Q3 2027 6.1% in Q4 2027 https://t.co/AhH8SZ64tC
Iran's Diversified Finances Undermine Obama‑Era Deal Blueprint
The same model Obama had for Iran in 2011-12. Limited oil sales, stop enrichment and release some funds. But today, Iran is much more diversified financially
Iran War’s End Won’t End Supply Chain Risks
Is the Iran War Almost Over? Why That Doesn't End the Supply Risks. #oatt #oott https://t.co/SUroio6mpX
IRGC Says only Khamenei Can Order Hormuz Reopening
IRGC: Only Iran's leader Khamenei can order a Hormuz reopening, "not some idiot" on Twitter
India Pays for Iranian Oil in Yuan, Bypassing Dollars
🇮🇳🇮🇷 India is settling payments for Iranian oil in Chinese yuan instead of US dollars.🤯
European Actors, Even French Socialists, Drove Market Liberalization
Abdelal shows how capital market liberalization was pushed by groups of European actors including leading French socialists. Today's Chrtbook Top Links in the comment below https://t.co/BHXhe2jvTI
Rate‑cut Odds Surge to 50% After Recent Events
Just a couple weeks the probability of another FOMC rate cut this year was down to less than 10% With some positive macro and geopolitical events over the past two weeks including the last 48 hours... the probability of another FOMC...
Iran Mandates Specific Shipping Lane Despite Trump’s Openness Claim
President Trump says the Strait of Hormuz is open. But do note Tehran says shipping traffic needs to follow the "coordinated route as already announced” by Iran. What's that route? My @Opinion video explainer, published originally last week, shows it. https://t.co/Pg7UBNarHY
Iran Reopens Hormuz, U.S. Blockade Persists Amid Mine Claims
Iran Reopens Strait Of Hormuz, U.S. Blockade Continues These moves come as Trump claims the U.S. is helping Iran remove mines from the Strait. Updating live: https://t.co/t5TdqPciTt
Apollo CEO Sees Iran Conflict Boosting Gulf Business Confidence
What Apollo CEO Marc Rowan told me about how he’s thinking about the war in Iran: “I view what’s happening as stabilizing. I view this as ultimately good for business confidence, investment, particularly in the Gulf where I’m very bullish...
US Debt Limits Expose Global Economic Fragility
On @cgtnamerica, I explain the fragility facing the global economy: "Large economies like the US have been running large deficits and accumulating debt. There's very little headroom. They've put themselves in a corner. And the markets aren’t pricing in the real...
US Oil Blockade Opens Strait, Offers Ukraine Lessons
Big thanks to @biannagolodryga for having me on @CNN to talk about the US blockade of Iranian oil and its role in reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Lots of lessons to learn here, especially on how the West confronts...
Euro Slides as Hike Forecasts Drop to 1.6%
FWIW, intra-day euro off its highs. Not major moves, but it appears there was an overshooting on the Iran news. Also now only 1.6 hikes expected by year-end in the eurozone, down from 2.6 on Monday src: BBG https://t.co/BogH7m2BKY
Debt Woes Could Spark Bond Market Revolt, Says Wilson
"If we don't find a way to grow out of the debt problem, the bond market will revolt... but I just don't see that right now." 🎙️ Morgan Stanley CIO Mike Wilson https://t.co/6SRBAtt9a2
Mutual Export Controls Harm US, China—Time for Careful Rollback
As I have noted in several posts over the past year, there is a growing recognition that both the US and China have pushed export controls to levels that are damaging to each other’s economies. A Deal Waiting to Be...
VIX Drop Misreads Ceasefire; Risk Still Lingers
US and Iran are considering a two-week ceasefire extension. The VIX has fallen from 29.3 to 17.94 since March 30 — markets are pricing this as full resolution. A pause is not a peace deal. A two-week truce is not a...
Hormuz Transit Open Only in Name—Avoid and Delay Voyages
Tanker shipping association INTERTANKO : Hormuz “open” in name only. Ceasefire holding, but transits remain under Iranian control + U.S. blockade in force. Key guidance: delay voyages, avoid the area if possible—and do not pay transit fees to Iran amid risk...
Strait of Hormuz Appears ‘Open’ Yet Something’s
Check in on the "open" Strait of Hormuz. Something's missing but I can't put my finger on it https://t.co/Pr2PQBKlFe
Half of Global Markets Rebound Amid Iran Conflict
"Looking across 46 different country ETFs since the start of the Iran war, the global picture looks far more resilient than headlines and the chattering media's pundits would suggest. Nearly half of the world's major markets -- 20 out of...
Trump Claims Iran Won’t Close Hormuz; Iran Threatens Closure
Love these competing blockade headlines: Trump said Iran has agreed to never close the Strait of Hormuz again. An Iranian official told Fars that if the U.S. naval blockade persists, Tehran will consider it a violation of the ceasefire and will close...
Market Volatility Driven by War Perception and Headlines
Perception is reality in the markets, and that perception is being driven by headlines. Those headlines suggest today that the war is near its end, but we're not there yet, and there will likely be occasional headlines to the contrary....
War Slashes Growth in Middle East, Low‑Income Nations
The impact of the war on the global economy as measured by revisions to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook: a very significant hit to the Middle East itself and Low-income Developing Economics. More featured on today's Chartbook Top Links in...
Markets Rally as Hormuz Reopens, Oil Prices Plunge
Stocks surged Friday after Iran said the Strait of Hormuz was “completely open” following a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, easing supply fears and sending oil prices sharply lower. The Dow jumped more than 700 points while major indexes hit...
BOE's Pill Signals Potential Rate Hikes to Combat Inflation
BOE’s Pill suggests rates may need to rise to tackle inflation https://t.co/iAYJOdrBkv via @tomelleryrees @irinaanghel12 https://t.co/Rk8oDw3DMD
US‑Iran Deal Nears: Stockpile Trade, 5‑Year
the outlines of a us-iran deal are taking shape/getting closer. the us wants iran's enriched uranium stockpile and a 20-year moratorium on enrichment. iran is offering stockpile plus 5 years, wants $20 billion in frozen funds released plus sanctions relief.
Unclear US Blockade Complicates Iran's Hormuz Ceasefire Limits
So, are we just back to Iran's 10-15 Hormuz ceasefire Hormuz crossing limit of last week, now with the added US blockade? Or something more? These tweet-length statements are killing me with the lack of detail.
China's GDP Growth only Loosely Mirrors Real Economy
CER: "There is obviously to some extent a relationship between China's GDP growth number and the real economy. Although we don’t know exactly how closely those two things match." https://t.co/ARbicIVAH8
Lagarde Warns Inflation Risks Skewed Upward
ECB’s Lagarde says risks to the inflation outlook are tilted to the upside https://t.co/03GtPv7xtj via @NickHeubeck https://t.co/m2Nl7hg63C
U.S. Imports More Crude yet Remains Net Petroleum Exporter
GUIDE: U.S. crude oil and petroleum product trade balances. The United States is BOTH a major importer and exporter of crude oil and petroleum products. These trade patterns allow the U.S. system to balance. But the devil, as always, is in...
No Recession or Excess Leverage—Credit Cycle Remains Safe
What actually kills a credit cycle? Recession or too much leverage. Neither condition is in place right now according to Morgan Stanley CIO Mike Wilson 🎙️ https://t.co/rdsmLpLKIt
March US Inflation Stems From Money Supply, Not Oil
March's US CPI inflation (3.3%/yr) wasn't the result of higher oil prices. It occurred because the money supply was accelerating prior to the Iranian war. The 3-month annualized inflation rate in Feb. was exactly equal to March's 3.3%/yr. https://t.co/YBHCbqfLiV
Tariffs and Conflict Reveal Hidden Supply Chain Risks
"U.S. aluminum tariffs and the Iran war—a case study in unintended supply chain vulnerability" https://t.co/UuDRjms7S6 https://t.co/oZgTAVHOS4
Mozambique Shows Debt Relief's Promise and Pitfalls
Mozambique is an example of where debt relief can work, but unfortunately, is also an example of where things can go wrong. @CGDev https://t.co/n8UiQp0jdb
Iran's “Open” Hormuz Route Fails to Reassure Shippers
"The Iranian foreign minister’s announcement on Friday that the Strait of Hormuz is “completely open” for ships that use an Iranian-prescribed route doesn’t give the shipping industry assurances to resume traffic through the strait" https://t.co/9MdBedoMmR
EU Restores Full Relations, Boosts Trade and Security with Syria
JUST IN: EU's ramping up trade and security ties with Syria by restoring full relations.
Asset Unfreeze Tied to Hormuz Strait Opening
"unfreezing Iranian assets has been part of the agreement to open the Straight of Hormuz". --Iran $USO
Reducing East Asia Surplus Key to Global Economic Balance
Global adjustment really does hinge on bringing down East Asia's surplus -- and of course also brining down the deficit of the US and the UK The second China shock already solved for Germany's surplus https://t.co/CQ5w2tBmTD
Inflation Already Embedded, Set to Accelerate Post‑War
My view in @FortuneMagazine on how inflation was ALREADY BAKED INTO THE CAKE: “Inflation was accelerating before the war, and it will keep accelerating after the war’s over and oil prices fall.” https://t.co/40tVOVEUt1
Strait of Hormuz Reopens—Durability and Ship Commitment Key
The reported reopening of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran is undoubtedly a welcome relief for the global economy. Needless to say, its true impact depends on the durability of this reopening, which will require sustained confidence-building measures from all three...
Six‑Month Iran Deal Raises Strait‑of‑Hormuz Uncertainty
Europe and Gulf leaders thin six months for Iran war deal. If so, will the Strait stay open? For all?
Hormuz Reopens, Markets Surge as Oil Plummets
STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS OPEN. WAR IS OVER?! Iran reopens the Strait. Oil down -13% $SPX at record highs. $NDX logs its longest win streak since 2009. Dollar easing, gold and $BTC ripping The single biggest lock on markets just cleared. US-Iran...
Observations Reveal Uncomfortable Truths in Challenging Times
I will start off by wishing you well in these challenging times and by saying that the picture I paint in the following observations is not the picture I wish to be true; it is the picture that I believe...
Podcast Appearance Urges Urgent Debate on Fixing Imbalances
Thanks Michael -- I hope my appearance on the podcast of the great @SoumayaKeynes puts some urgency back into the debate over how to fix imbalances --
Traders Boost Futures on Rising 2026 Fed Cut Odds
JUST IN: U.S. short-term interest rate futures climbed as traders bet on higher odds of a Fed rate cut in 2026.
Gulf Oil Loss Hits Half‑billion Barrels, 900M‑barrel Cost
As of today, just more than a half billion barrels of oil that were supposed to be produced in the Gulf this year have not been thanks to the closure of Hormuz and forced shut-ins. Using the optimistic assumption that Hormuz...