Stunning Data Predicts Israel's Prolonged Maximum-Scale War
These numbers are stunning and probably explain in large part why Israel will be in maximumally expansive war mode for the next couple of years
UK Economy Still Wounded as Trump Links Persist
UK bears scars to the economy, Trump ties even as Iran war risks subside https://t.co/uhuhgyLWAA via @tomelleryrees @EllenAMilligan https://t.co/VXCHbQJ8J5
China’s Services Sector Lags High‑
According to China Daily, China's services sector comprises 58% of the country's total production (GDP), having risen from 50% in 2015. It accounts for 50% of total employment. For comparison purposes, the GDP share of the services sector is 70-80% in...
Turkey's Record Current‑account Deficit Stems From Domestic Policies
Turkey's in trouble for the same old reason. The current account deficit in Jan & Feb 2026 is the widest ever except for Jan & Feb 2023, when Lira ended up sharply devaluing. Turkey's problems have nothing to do with...
Productivity Surge Returns: Early Signs of New Boom
MS: We Are Likely in the Early Stages of Another Productivity Boom Productivity Growth Appears To Be Turning Higher Again https://t.co/M5GiqJzWRW
Maekawa Report Reveals Why Japan-China Rebalancing Falters
I have often mentioned Japan's 1986 Maekawa Commission Report as a way of understanding why Japan's (and by extension, China's) rebalancing was never going to be easy. For those who might be interested, I asked ChatGPT to summarize the report...
Global Economic Calendar: Key Data Releases This Week
Everyone will be watching the headlines but don't miss this busy global calendar 👇 🇺🇸 US Retail Sales 🇪🇺 EZ -GE ZEW -GE IFO -EZ PMIs -GE PPI 🇬🇧 UK -Jobs -CPI -PMIs -Retail Sales 🇨🇦 CA -CPI & PPI -Retail Sales 🇯🇵 JP CPI 🇳🇿 NZ -Trade -CPI
ECB Should Wait, Not Rush Rate Decisions
ECB better off waiting than rushing into rate action, Demarco says https://t.co/IAAWNv0BDq via @jrandow https://t.co/K09LIzQVbh
Key Geopolitics and Economic Data Shaping Monday Trades
Middle East Ceasefire, US Retail Sales, Global PMIs Join us on Monday at 8:45am ET to dive into everything that will impact your trades 👇 https://t.co/IpQ8H0G5Ss https://t.co/IpQ8H0G5Ss
War's End Won't Erase Lasting Economic Damage
Whatever happens with the ceasefire, it's worth remembering that even if the war ends, the damage remains. The broader economic consequences are large, and persistent, and affect all of us. https://t.co/EA5xHP8jR3
Strait of Hormuz Remains Closed, Trump Remains Uninformed
Looks like Strait of Hormuz is still closed https://t.co/iO1163dhmL Too bad Donald Trump can't find out about this.
India's IOC Logs Second‑largest Weekly Russian Crude Imports
🇮🇳 India’s IOC just recorded the second-highest weekly volume of Russian crude imports ever — only behind the record set in third week of June 2023 https://t.co/slsuYNxtUf
Strait Blockage Triggers Unprecedented Global Energy Supply Shock
And the greatest energy disruption must include derivatives, distillates., and other commodities not moving because of the Strait. The global E2E supply chain effect may go beyond points we have never seen.
ECB Officials Return From Washington Marginally More Optimistic
ECB officials may be leaving Washington ever so slightly more optimistic than when they arrived a week ago https://t.co/f7nzBc8Mm6 via @jrandow https://t.co/ZyHcnYGTgk
Global Economy Splits Into Diverging Realities This Week
FYI, the links to my weekly look at the global economy and markets, including what has evolved into a tale of two (if not more) realities. https://open.substack.com/pub/mohamedelerian/p/the-weekly-look-at-the-global-economy-550?r=33wip&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/weekly-look-global-economy-markets-mohamed-el-erian-w4wbe/?lipi=urn%3Ali%3Apage%3Ad_flagship3_feed%3Btfqi0xMNTveCEbORqFBpMw%3D%3D #economy #markets
China Wins Back Elite Talent, Boosting Tech Outlook
Macro: China reclaims elite talent as US social strain and visa barriers drive returns. Key: media push, R&D incentives, income/prices. Risks: slowdown, geopolitics. Overweight China tech 📈 — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Malaysia's Fuel Crisis: Import Reliance Contradicts Official Optimism
The Prime Minister of Malaysia says 85% of Malaysians aren’t affected by the fuel crisis. The MOF says Malaysia consumes 700,000 barrels a day and produces 350,000. It imports the rest — and nearly 40% of those imports travel through...
China Stockpiles Cheap Russian Oil; India Overpays
China's Q1 Russian crude imports hit a record high — way above past levels. Thanks to Indian refiners yielding to Trump’s pressure and cutting back, Beijing was stockpiling that oil on the cheap. Is this important? Yes, China is energy-secured. India...
India Switches to Yuan for Iranian Oil Purchases
This reported now in BT but the news several days old. We discussed it in the Daily Energy Report: Iran set the conditions for LPG and oil imports. Desperation is relative. India settles Iranian oil...
Houthis Vow Strait Blockade over Trump's Peace Obstruction
JUST IN: Yemen's Houthis threaten to block the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, a key trade route, if US President Donald Trump keeps impeding peace efforts.
Balancing Oil Markets May Require Global Recession, Sparks Crisis
Feels like the only way to bring finished goods markets in oil/gas in balance is a Global Recession. Massive humanitarian crisis.
India’s GDP Rank Dip Reflects Conversion, Not Weakness
India's GDP slipped to 6th positiion from 4th position. 📉 India's recent slip to sixth place in global GDP rankings does not reflect a weakening of the economy, but is largely the result of currency conversion effects and a one‑time statistical...
US Loses Chinese Talent Amid Immigration Hurdles, Crime Fears
America’s Allure Fades in China, Keeping Talent Away—U.S. immigration hurdles and fear of crime, amplified by state media, have more of China’s best and brightest deciding to stay home @BrianSpegele @joshchin https://t.co/A5h4aPeUks https://t.co/A5h4aPeUks
Iran Shuts Schools, Deploys Troops, Signaling Escalation
🚨🚨 🇮🇷 𝗕𝗥𝗘𝗔𝗞𝗜𝗡𝗚: Iran closes 𝗮𝗹𝗹 schools and universities 𝗶𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗶𝘁𝗲𝗹𝘆. 𝗔𝗹𝗹 ground forces deployed in the region. The last time Iran did this: it was hours before 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗜𝘀𝗿𝗮𝗲𝗹. The message is clear: Ceasefire violations have a 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲. Netanyahu bombs...
EU Juggles Conflicts with China, Russia, Iran, and USA
The EU managed to be in conflict with China, Russia, Iran, the USA, and within itself simultaneously. Esmaeil here is being too nice.
Strait Disruption Could Drop 2026 Oil Demand Below IEA Forecast
The @IEA projects that the world would use ~104 million barrels per day in 2026. With the disruption in the disruption in the Strait we are already predicted to go down to an average of 100mbpd for 2026-- maybe lower.🧵
U.S. Debt Set to Spike to 142% of GDP
THE U.S. NEEDS A DEBT BRAKE. The IMF estimates that the United States’ public debt will surge from 124% of GDP in 2025 to 142% by 2031. USA = ECONOMIC STORM CLOUDS ON THE HORIZON. https://t.co/ZB6XlfUvlR
OMB Chief Admits No Clue on Iran War Cost
My view on the biggest news of the week in @MarioNawfal: “The Director of US Office and Management and Budget Russell Vought testified that, he had no idea what the war with Iran was going to cost. Amazing, Trump goes to...
Chinese Exporters Overstate US Exports by $112 B, Boosting Fraud
11% of US trade has turned fraudulent since Liberation day created massive incentive to cheat on your tariffs. Chinese exporters declare the value of their US exports to the Chinese government $112B higher than the value of the same goods as...
Iran’s Guards Reopen Hormuz Strait, Signaling War
As the Revolutionary Guards close the Strait *again*, call it what it is: the War of Hormuz https://t.co/9AxxrTbfMK @agbinews
Freight Data Signals Unprecedented Manufacturing Surge Ahead of Official Stats
We've been flagging a surge of activity in the freight modes connected to heavy industry and manufacturing - flatbed & rail for the past few months. Supply chains are upstream to consumption and freight data tends to signal activity first,...
Iran Conflict Trims Global 2026 Growth to 3.1%
GLOBAL GROWTH IS LOSING STEAM. Before the Iran war, forecasts pointed to 3.4% growth in 2026. Now, the IMF has slashed its projections to just 3.1%. THE US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN = MAJOR LONG-TERM DAMAGE. https://t.co/Q2UvmWSb0o
Avoid Absurd Tail Risk for Sub‑SOFR Yields
I don’t think taking absurd tail risk to earn yield below SOFR is a good idea but that’s just me https://t.co/qw0D0qMyP9
Factory Output Rises While Jobs Keep Falling
JUST IN: Factory output is surging and could accelerate, even as jobs decline steadily, driven by strong demand.
India's Cabotage Reversal Threatens Sri Lanka Transshipment Role
Serious question: But isn't India reversing the 2018 cabotage reform? Where does that leave Sri Lanka and India in the transshipment picture?
IMF Underestimates Growth After Major Economic Shocks
IMF growth forecasts are much too pessimistic when they come right after big shocks. It was that way in Apr. 2025 after "Liberation Day" and it's like that again now. I talked about this on this morning's live stream that...
Deflation: Tech’s Gift, Not an Economic Threat
Deflation is not a bad thing. We’ve had it for decades in technology, and it’s a massive good, sort of a gift from the economy to everyone who has dollars, in proportion to their number of dollars.
Iran Shifts Tactics: Stock Manipulation Over Oil, Gunboats Attack
Can Iranians be pumping and dumping stocks instead of oil? Iranian gunboats fire on tanker after Strait of Hormuz closed again.
Markets Await Warsh Hearing, Data, Hormuz Wild Card
This week brings Warsh's confirmation hearing, retail sales, flash PMIs, and consumer sentiment. Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz remains the wild card for markets. 🟢 Open https://t.co/mLRfGzP6hG
Brazil's Lula Calls for P5 Conduct Reform
JUST IN: Lula from Brazil urges the UN Security Council's permanent members to reform their conduct.
BYD Seeks EU Lobby Seat Amid EV Tariff Pressures
BYD is in talks to join Europe’s car lobby group, a move that would give the Chinese automaker a voice in the region where it faces tariffs on its electric-vehicle imports https://t.co/Pi7zP3bsiq
Brazil's High Money Growth Fuels Inflation Above Target
Brazil's March inflation is 4.14%/yr. That's ABOVE its 3%/yr inflation target. Brazil’s M4 is growing at 9.4%/yr. That is ABOVE Hanke’s Golden Growth Rate of 7.1%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its 3%/yr inflation target. INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY....
Tariff Turmoil Threatens Credit; $JOJO Offers Protection
Trade policy is a mess. New tariffs keep replacing old ones. Courts are intervening. Businesses can't plan. This kind of policy chaos eventually hits credit. $JOJO is designed for that moment. https://t.co/XM7J6EtxpP
Tariffs Fully Passed to Consumers, Labor Gains Negligible
Another Fed paper finds Americans paid almost all Trump's 2025 tariffs ("pass-through of realized tariffs into import prices was close to one hundred percent"), AND that local labor market effects were "economically negligible." All pain, no gain. https://t.co/FIgzz7XDAC https://t.co/SeRAnQAdLP
Iran's Hormuz Control Threatens Global Energy Security
Security of Global Energy System Hinges on Iran If Iran asserts sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, the dominoes begin to fall as other supply chokepoints are contested. PS - This morning, Iran resumed control of tanker traffic in the Strait #iranwar https://markhamhislop.substack.com/p/security-of-global-energy-system
Latin America Leads Rebound, Outperforming US Stocks
One of the more important developments over the past few weeks has been the resilience of LatAm’s outperformance relative to US equities. These markets didn’t just hold up well during the selloff — they remained remarkably firm. And in the rebound, they’ve...
Trust Deficit Drives Fragmented, Fluid Global Supply Chains
World order and trade. What are they when trust is lacking? When countries look at their needs against that backdrop? Risk not resilience will be key. Fragmentation. Supply chains must have manageable, dynamic fluidity. 2nd and 3rd orders will be...
Stock and Housing Gains Fuel Consumer Spending Despite Crises
Why are consumers still spending money despite higher prices, tariffs, energy price spikes, war, etc? You cannot overstate how much wealth has been created in the stock and housing markets in the 2020s Taking stock of consumer balance sheets: https://t.co/2z6xHf95hK https://t.co/6idg1ItOV2
Iran Tightens Hormuz Control as Trump Threatens Bombing
With the US refusing to lift its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has responded. Iran will now maintain “strict control” over the Strait. With that, Trump has thrown more fuel on the fire: “We’ll have to start dropping bombs again.” https://t.co/ZrwqjtoLFw
S&P 500 Typically Hits Bottom 15 Days Post‑crisis
Wow, this played out like a charm... Historically, the S&P 500 bottoms 15 trading days after a geopolitical event begins, DB. @soberlook I took some chartistic liberty with the Iran War price update... https://t.co/J5VDwJc2MK