UAE Threatens Shift From Petrodollar to Yuan
💥JUST IN The UAE has told the U.S. that if it runs short of U.S. dollars, it will be forced to use Chinese yuan or other currencies for oil sales and transactions. The petrodollar is at risk. https://t.co/ENEUL9x7LY
Russia Needs $100 Urals Oil to Close Deficit
“Russia’s ailing economy has failed to recover even as rising oil prices during the war in the Middle East have boosted the Kremlin’s depleted coffers, according to Sweden’s military intelligence chief. Thomas Nilsson, head of Sweden’s Military Intelligence and Security...
S&P Hits Record as Oil Plunges Amid Iran Tensions
The S&P just hit a RECORD HIGH. Oil crashed 13% in a week. Iran says the Strait is "completely open." Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk won't send ships through. The ceasefire expires TUESDAY. And the Navy just put 5-inch gun rounds into...
Doubting a Quick Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz
Is it time to abandon hope the Strait of Hormuz will open soon? https://t.co/5BRLiEg2Tm @ClydeCommods
Taiwan Fights Chip Boom to Protect Undervalued Currency
Taiwan's willingness to do absolutely anything and everything to keep the chip boom from putting pressure on the wildly undervalued Taiwan dollar is unw=matched ... 1/ https://t.co/yVjNKHd7ci
Markets Clash as Ceasefire Deadline Looms
Banks crushed earnings. Oil crashed 11% in a day. Gold refused to sell off. The Nasdaq just posted its longest winning streak since 1992. Something has to give. The ceasefire expires Wednesday. https://t.co/1ewAQlpSy4
US Blockade Pressures All, Targets Iran Most
Exactly. And this is why this US blockade is genius because it means it won't be just the Iranians that will benefit when it's partially open. The pressure cooker is on for everyone equally, especially Iran.
Global Finance Rattles: UAE, Debt Warnings,
UAE just threatened to ditch the dollar. A former Treasury Secretary is warning of a "vicious" debt crisis. Bitcoin pulled back after hitting $78k last week. Strategy is proposing to pay STRC dividends twice a month. New News Block is live....
Trump Refused Kharg Island Assault over Casualty Concerns
WSJ: "Trump has resisted sending American soldiers to take Kharg Island, for example, the launch point for 90% of Iran’s oil exports. While he was told the mission would succeed, and the territory’s capture would give the U.S. access to...
Cut Payroll Taxes to Revive Chinese Consumption
Agree strongly with Mr. Barnett here "The cure, then, is to boost consumption in China — something no amount of tariffs can achieve. Fortunately, one powerful lever exists: a dramatic, permanent cut in the payroll tax" 1/ https://t.co/Cm8mn17CDD
US Trade Rep Greer Arrives in Mexico for USMCA Review
US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has landed in Mexico City for meetings tomorrow related to the USMCA review. He was received at the airport by Economy Minister @m_ebrard and undersecretary @LuisRosendo_ (Video from Mexico's economy ministry) https://t.co/iweEQKUuJO
Sil
What’s the best US macro call that Silicon Valley elites have made over the past 10-15 years? Employment, inflation, housing, GDP growth, take your pick.
Labor Market Narrative Misleading; Data Stale Since September
It IS a remarkable collapse and strengthening of the labor market narrative… unfortunately it’s likely untrue. September is the last date updated for the QCEW revisions. https://t.co/7r6efCCpeo
S&P 500 CAPE Hits 40, Tops 99% Historic Levels
The S&P 500's CAPE Ratio has moved up to 40, its highest level since 2000 and now above 99% of historical valuations. $SPX https://t.co/uhUt33SCp5
Oil Spike Highlights Balance‑of‑Payments Shock Over Dollar
With oil rising again (alas), my Odd Lots episode from last week gains new relevance -- tis at least as much about the balance of payments impact of an oil shock as about the dollar https://t.co/JtgH1nPC0z
S&P 500 Rebounds From 7% Loss to +4.5% YTD
On March 30, the S&P 500 was down 7% in 2026, the 12th worst start to a year in history. After one of the biggest 3-week rallies ever, it's now up +4.5% YTD and above the average year at this...
Three LNG Shipments Stalled, Pakistan Faces Heat‑driven Blackouts
There are at least *three LNG shipments* stuck in the Persian Gulf that are supposed to go to Pakistan, according to ship-tracking data 🇵🇰🚢 Pakistan hasn't received an LNG shipment in over a month due to the Hormuz closure. That risks...
Fertilizer Costs Surge 53%, Threatening Food Inflation
Fertilizer prices have moved up to their highest levels since May 2022, rising 53% YoY. About a third of global fertilizer supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz. This will drive food price inflation higher in the coming weeks/months. Video: https://t.co/XaN1isYjSt
US Weakens, China and Russia Gain Power Post‑War
My view on the outcome of the US-Israeli war on Iran w/ @MarioNawfal: "In the Great Geopolitical Game, one great power is going to become weaker: the United States. And two great powers are going to become stronger: China and Russia."...
Hormuz Traffic Normalization Odds Plunge to 23%
According to Polymarket, the probability that Strait of Hormuz traffic will return to normal by the end of April is FALLING LIKE A STONE. It is now 23%. TRUMP = A PRESIDENT OF FOREVER WARS. https://t.co/nt979qNG1g
Iranians May Be Behind Pre‑War Crude Trades, Not Washington
Can you imagine if its actually the Iranians........ Everyone thinks it's Washington insiders trading Crude Oil right before significant price moving news connected to the war with Iran and Strait of Hormuz.
China’s Oil Stockpile Fuels Profit Amid Global Price Surge
In speaking with oil traders (and checking the data) it is clear that China went on a buyer's strike due to the ongoing high crude and LNG prices. Which means that Beijing loaded up its storage with low oil prices...
Dollar Climbs as Middle East Tensions Close Hormuz
JUST IN: US dollar surges amid escalating Middle East conflicts, with the Strait of Hormuz shut.
CAPE Refunds Illegal Tariffs; 56k Importers Register
Monday, April 20, 8 am ET US program (CAPE) to refund the now-recognized as illegal tariffs will begin. Some 56k companies--importers of record--have reportedly registered. The largest importers (e.g., #WMT, #COST, #TGT, #AAPL,#AMZN, and #FDX) (1/4)
Hormuz Tensions Lock Gas Prices Through 2027
Strait of Hormuz uncertainty isn't just pushing up today's gas prices — it's lifting futures through 2027 and beyond. The energy secretary's optimism may already be outdated. Until we get resolution, expensive gas isn't going anywhere soon. https://t.co/NZ4lVvoG5p
Prabowo Praises Putin for Oil Aid Amid Iran War
My take on Indonesian President Prabowo’s statement on Putin: @MarioNawfal: “According to Prabowo, Putin is playing a positive role in the Iranian war affair because he is supplying countries like Indonesia with oil and gas." https://t.co/wGOTQHe1fg
Argentina Ranks Fifth Most Miserable; Milei's Inflation Promises Fail
#ARGWatch🇦🇷: In Hanke’s 2025 Annual Misery Index, Argentina ranks as the FIFTH MOST MISERABLE COUNTRY IN THE WORLD. Just as I've predicted since day 1, MILEI HAS FAILED TO CRUSH INFLATION. https://t.co/2Zjd0vmAun
European Gas Futures Jump 11% Despite Lower Overall Prices
European natural gas futures rise 11% after Iran closed Hormuz (again) 📈📈 No LNG shipment has been exported from the region since the war in Iran began in late-Feb Still, prices are down from the highs last month. This is partly due...
Oil Spikes 6.5% Amid Iran‑U.S. Ship Attacks
Oil prices jump 6.5% after Iran and U.S. attack ships as tensions escalate over Strait of Hormuz: https://t.co/aZcReIm6Eb
Iran's Hormuz Takeover Spikes Oil Risk, Boosts Gold Demand
🇮🇷 Iran Intel Brief | Pre-Asia ─────── Iran seizes control of the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting global oil shipments and elevating energy market risks. US Navy intercepts and disables Iranian cargo ship Touska, prompting Tehran to vow retaliation that could spike oil prices. Iran...
Strait Closure Triggers Supply Shortages and Price Spikes
For the first time, the Strait is completely closed. Nothing moving does not help the related supply shortages. And their prices.
UAE Threatens Oil Trade Shift to Yuan over USD Shortage
UAE to Trump Administration: "You started this war; if we run short of USDs as a result of it, either you will give us USD swap lines, or we will be forced to start transacting oil and gas in CNY...
UAE Holds Strong Reserves Amid Unreported Figures, Seeks Swap Line
Interesting WSJ story about the Emirates request for a swap line -- the UAE hasn't reported its end March reserves but it went into the conflict with tons of reserves and no shortage of liquid bills in US custodians 1/ https://t.co/5Q61nzi68P
Trump's Tariffs Failed to Generate Significant Revenue
My good friend Chris Wood on the failure of Pres. Trump's tariffs to produce a massive increase in government revenue: "Evidence of fiscal improvement as a result of the surge in tariff revenues over the past year remains minimal." TRUMP = FALSE...
China's 11 M Bpd Crude Imports Dominated by Gulf
11 million barrels a day and most of it from the Gulf… Source: Visual Capitalist http://visualcapitalist.com/chinas-crude-oil-imports-by-country/
Afghan War Costs $6.5T—Over Four Times Social Security
My take on the cost of the war on Iran on @MarioNawfal: "For context, the Afghan war cost is $6.5T. That is 4.3 times higher than the largest single line item in the US Federal budget, Social Security.” WARS ARE EXPENSIVE. https://t.co/C98QPx7rM4
Debunking the Case for Tariffs and Exposing Corruption
Pleased to see the WSJ publish my & @AlfredCObregon's letter responding to a(nother) weak op-ed trying to make "The Case for Tariffs". (We hit on more than corruption, but that's what they chose for the title.) Read it all here: https://t.co/BAIWkel6oT...
Iran War Fuels Persistent US Inflation Ahead of Midterms
A warning from the Financial Time (which has economic, political and social implications): "war in Iran has unleashed a torrent of inflation in the US that economists warn will linger long after the conflict ends, squeezing Americans ahead of November’s midterm...
Trump Claims Deal Near; Iran Denies Any Talks
Trump says a deal is almost done Iran says it never agreed to talk https://t.co/H0jEhPmqRb
Seeking Recent Kevin Warsh Interviews, Including John Cochrane
hey, Claude cue me up some Kevin Warsh interviews / talks / panels from the past five years to (re)listen to. ... even found some with John Cochrane, bonus.
UK Remains G7's Most Inflation‑prone Economy, Pre‑Iran War
Britain is the most inflation-prone nation in the G7. That was true before the Iran war https://t.co/Do8t8NHSjq
Trump’s War Boast Masks Deep Personal Anxiety
Behind Trump’s Public Bravado on the War, He Grapples With His Own Fears Terrifying & vital reporting here by WSJ https://t.co/6QrFpjORZo
Propose Hormuz Convention to Regulate and Tax Shipping
My take on the Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz on @MarioNawfal: "Ideally, there should be something like the Montreux Convention of 1936 that settled the Dardanelles and allowed Turkey to manage the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles and charge fees...
Your Savings Lose Value: Inflation Beats 0.5%
Inflation has averaged 3.8% annually since 1960. Your savings account pays 0.5%. You are losing money every single day it sits there.
Policy Shifts Set to Accelerate Growth by 2026
MS: We see Fed and fiscal policy, deregulation and fading tariff headwinds all contributing to a growth acceleration in 2026 https://t.co/jEapo33q0x
Germany's Spending Surpasses 50% of GDP, Trending Socialist
Hello from Germany, which is steadily drifting toward socialism. Since 2025, government spending ratio has exceeded 50% of GDP, and the IMF expects it to climb above 52% in the coming years and stay above 51% until 2031. https://t.co/FUGQGYFtQv
Saudi Deficit Swells, Turning Kingdom Into Eurodollar Drain
Saudi Arabia's deficit widened to $25.28 billion in Q4 2025. Instead of being a source of the petrodollars, the kingdom has become a drain on the eurodollar system. https://t.co/JkziRznkyx
BRICS to Launch PIX‑style Cross‑border Digital Currency System
BRICS is preparing a payment system inspired by Brazilian PIX... ...that will allow direct transactions between countries using national #digitalcurrencies for without relying on the dollar or Western #banks as intermediaries. @clickpetroleoeg. #payments https://t.co/1oj8tj7cvu
Burger Prices Surge, Imports Rise, Exports Fall.
"Burgers approach luxury territory as beef prices remain high" https://t.co/kxMtibg3NB "Imports are rising to fill the gap, while exports are falling as domestic supply tightens." https://t.co/U23joP278Z
Geopolitical Turmoil Boosts Demand for Dollar Alternatives
As geopolitical uncertainty grows, so does interest in alternatives to the US dollar. Stablecoins and basket currencies are entering the conversation. https://t.co/e2EvVLtbv1