Oil Shocks Barely Dent Global Manufacturing and Supply Chains
Oil shocks get sensationalized, but things don't look bad in global manufacturing. In fact, this shock barely registers in global supply chains. I'll move my posts behind a paywall in coming months, please consider signing up now to lock in a low rate... https://t.co/DKkVCAzf92 https://t.co/vDtRFDaDUf
Jet Fuel Shortage Looming; Save for Summer Flights
Even if the Iran ceasefire holds, the world already has a months-long jet fuel shortage baked in. So, start saving for those summer vacation flights. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/RZBrtJ5Ufo #iranwar #jetfuel #geopolitics https://t.co/WaIwrgDGKI
Unemployment Low as Job Seekers Drop Out
The absolute state of this headline - the reason unemployment is at 3-month low is people have given up looking for work with the economic inactivity rate rising from 20.7% to 21%. Slow handclap https://t.co/IUioq65SEk
Wall Street, FOMC Scrutinize Warsh Amid Trump Rate‑Cut Pressure
The toughest audiences at Warsh's confirmation hearing won't be in the room. Wall Street and the FOMC are watching how he'll manage Trump's pressure to cut interest rates. The president is watching for signs he'll deliver on expectations he set...
Russian Oil to India Near Record Levels Despite Sanctions Waiver
MOSCOW, April 21 (Reuters) - Russian oil sales to India are set to remain near record highs in April and May following a new U.S. sanctions waiver, and refiners have already secured much of their supply needs via non-sanctioned entities...
Mega Office Projects Struggle Amid Stagnant Demand and Rising Rates
Serious question - how do the economics of these mega developments actually work? Structural demand for office space in Japan is stagnant at best (at best). This was before WFH etc. and now yen rates are pushing 2.5% so money...
US‑Ecuador Deal Slashes Copper Tariffs, Boosts Exports
The US-Ecuador trade deal could lower copper tariffs and open a new export path for Ecuadorian metals. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/04/us-ecuador-trade-deal-could-open-new.html
Germany Dominates European Trade as Primary Hub
Trade relationships in Europe are more concentrated than many assume. Germany is the top trade partner for 19 European countries by far the most dominant position. The U.S. leads in only a few cases, including the UK, Ireland, and Switzerland. China appears as the...
Russia to Halt Kazakhstan Oil Shipments to Germany
MOSCOW, April 21 (Reuters) - Russia is set to stop oil exports from Kazakhstan to Germany via the Druzhba pipeline starting from May 1, three industry sources said on Tuesday.
Japan's Inflation Expectations Hit Record 10.3%, Stagflation Persists
No matter what the government tells you, #Quad3 Stagflation remains reality for The People BOJ's general public opinion poll showed five-year average inflation expectations strengthened to +10.3% in March from +9.8% in December, highlighted by Nikkei as the highest on...
Russia to Supply China Gas at One‑third Cheaper than Europe
China is getting cheap natural gas from Russia 🇨🇳🤝🇪🇺 The Russian government expects to sell gas to China through 2029 at about a third less than the price paid by Europe (this includes Turkey) https://t.co/LgIAxNwHXq https://t.co/5t7y1oF7zy
China’s Population Rapidly Ages and Declines
Not a new thoughts, but still stark🎩 @FTAlphaville 💥China is aging & shrinking — fast https://t.co/riFE9HYJoP
RBI's Liquidity Flood Drives Rupee Sharply Lower
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: The Reserve Bank of India is DIGGING A HOLE for the rupee. After years of tight management, now the RBI is FLOODING India with liquidity and the rupee is tanking. https://t.co/fy7Uowe3o2
Silver Leads Strong March Chinese Imports Across Metals
Chinese Imports & Exports for AU/AG/PA/PL in March. Silver stands out amongst the strong imports. Chart below
South Africa Leads BRICS in Misery, 7th Globally
In Hanke’s 2025 Annual Misery Index, South Africa ranks as the MOST MISERABLE COUNTRY in BRICS, and the SEVENTH MOST MISERABLE country in the world. SA’s unemployment of 32.5% is a KILLER. SOUTH AFRICA = TANKING. https://t.co/YPUnYLBqeP
Chip Price Surge Rivals Oil Shock, Adds $300B Surplus
Chip price shock is by some measures as big as the current oil shock -- $300b annual increase in Korean/ Taiwan combined trade surplus v 24 based on latest data (depends of course on where oil settles for the rest...
Prioritizing Future GDP Share Over Today's Profit
It’s not about profit today, it’s about the share of GDP they will control tomorrow.
Asia Foreshadows Global Energy Shock, US Unprepared
Asia is the trailer for the global energy shock "You’ve seen tsunamis," says The Atlantic Council's Phillip Cornell “I find it breathtaking to see the degree to which American policymakers think that they are insulated.” https://t.co/hZtCnd3mey #EnergyCrisis #OilMarkets #Geopolitics #SupplyChains
Rising Money Supply Fuels Precious Metals Surge and Inflation
The U.S. and global money supply is growing at an alarming rate, driving the precious metals bull market and contributing to persistently high inflation.
Rapid US Pivot Needed as Mexico Outpaces Growth
Scoop: the sooner he pivots to a great relationship with the USA, the faster the economic and cultural ties will heal. Mexico will eat his lunch. Growth in some economic areas is 6-8% per year, and even Canadian companies are...
Warsh Confirmation Hearing Highlights Unusual Fed Chair Process
There's nothing normal about this season of Fed Chair Apprentice, and it is far from over ... My preview of Kevin Warsh's confirmation hearing. https://t.co/S3gLBjAF7V
Policy to Balance Trade Deficit Fuels Decades of Growth
This will have exponentially more impact on balancing the trade deficit than any tariff policy and will drive massive American economic growth for today and the next few decades. Also massive for driving demand in the domestic goods economy.
Gulf Oil Turmoil Spurs Shift Toward China
US fights Iran. Gulf oil market is roiling. In the meantime, Gulf states are shifting toward China. Day what?!
Oil Pullback Ends Trade Narrative, Sparks Low‑Price Speculation
When a trade suffers the kind of pullback oil has now seen, it's over. A trade is just a story. It needs excitement and momentum. That's out the window and has been replaced by people asking how low oil prices...
EIA Predicts Hormuz Crisis Will Vanish by Fall
Hormuz Crisis: Gone by Spring, Fixed by Fall says EIA “It’s going to disappear. "One day, it’s like a miracle, it will disappear” #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket https://t.co/SIU7yJyfMK
Markets Brace for Iran Conflict Impact on US Economy
Is the Iran war already hurting the US economy? For their next trick, markets will try to make sense of US retail sales data alongside headlines from the Middle East. #stockmarket #IranWar #economy #macro #trading #dollar #oil https://t.co/K6KFiZlhQl
Oil Surge Pushes Brazil Real Toward 4.50/USD
We're on our way to $/BRL 4.50. Oil prices aren't going to fall back to pre-war levels quickly, which lifts Brazil's terms of trade and the Real. I'm moving my posts behind a paywall in coming months. Please consider subscribing...
China’s Decade-Long Goal: Avert Global Economic Catastrophe
Oh, Rudy... I'm so saddened by this line: "China is clearly intervening to get the Iranians to open the strait to prevent a global economic catastrophe." @RudyHavenstein Yes... it has been shown over the last decade that China's primary objective...
Big Tech's Low Taxes Boost Profits, Erode Worker Share
Actually, Pro-Trump MAG4 companies - $META $TSLA $GOOGL & $AMZN - unsurprisingly pay the least US taxes despite being some of the largest companies in the world. https://t.co/80OHUutsyx Also this trend of US corporate profits growing faster than the domestic economy has...
US‑Iran Talks Will Steer Markets over Next 48 Hours
Here's the top global macro event risk over the next 48 hours. I think there is a lot of important backdrop to the likes of US retail sales, UK jobs and Tesla earnings....however, I think the US-Iran negotiations will be responsible...
Tiny Triggers Can Jeopardize $110 Trillion Economy
turns out it doesn’t take much to hold a $110 trillion global economy at risk.
China’s Auto Export Surge Defies EU Tariffs
The second China shock isn't going to go away on its own, or with half measures -- China's auto exports to Europe, for example, have clearly reaccelerated (even with the narrowly targeted CVDs against battery electric imports) 1/ https://t.co/pdaadEXUrD
California’s Oil Decline Forces Costly Imports and Shortages
For a mix of reasons, California has decimated its local oil production. As a result, it’s now producing only about 300,000 barrels a day. But as the economy grows and the population expands, oil demand continues to rise. The state...
Extended Ceasefire Leaves 182M Barrels Off Market
Important to remember that, with 13 MMbpd in oil production still shut-in across the Gulf, a two week ceasefire extension with no change to the status of Hormuz means another 182 million barrels lost to the market. *Poof* Sooner or later that's...
Iran Risk Unpriced Amid High Oil, Demand Lag Threatens
Iran risk is not priced in from elevated oil prices or supply shocks. @HFI_Research wrote about lags that trigger potential demand hit if prolonged.
Hormuz Blockade Drives Iran's Currency to Record Weakness
Read a good summary of the economic impact of the Hormuz blockade on Iran by Foreign Affairs. A good rudimentary reminder of the pressure is the exchange rate: USD/IRR is 1.320 mln and black market looks to be around 1.512...
Kevin Warsh: Potential First Tech‑Bro Fed Chair
A Fed chair of our own 😉! Kevin Warsh would be the first tech bro Fed chair. How #SiliconValley shaped Fed nominee Kevin Warsh. More from CNBC: https://t.co/RLxsAakgXV https://t.co/VC5HmdThld
Challenging Traditional Economic Policies and Assumptions
1. Having the government set airline prices was good. 2. Federal Reserve policy should be set by a Congressional committee. 3. Cost/benefit analysis of regulations is a scam. 4. A balanced Federal budget isn't a good idea when we have a trade...
Tariff Disaster Exposed: Kim Smith Holmes'
Superb statement of the tariff fiasco for the US Government by @kimsmithholmes - with appropriate horror and perspective
Carney Markets Economic Independence Through Compelling Video
Carney Sells Economic Independence in Strong Video Performance Polsci prof @StewartPrest discusses PM MarkJCarney's "Forward Guidance" video. #cdnpoli https://youtu.be/gu9c_PrfRN8
Core PCE Inflation Projected at 2.2% by 2026
GS We Expect Core PCE Inflation Net of Tariff Effects to Fall to 2.2% by the End of 2026 https://t.co/ckLILK225L
Shadow Fleet Still Moves Despite US Trade Halt Claim
“While the US military says it has turned around over 20 vessels and ‘completely halted’ Iranian trade, Lloyd’s List Intelligence shows a steady flow of shadow fleet traffic in and out of the Middle East Gulf” Personally, I trust @TankerTrackers https://t.co/Uu0qgzUlPk
Mortgage Rates Drop 0.57% YoY, Spread Widens
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate today: 6.30% Same day last year: 6.87% --------------- 10-year Treasury yield: 4.26 Spread today: 204 bps
Airlines Cite Iran, Fuel Costs for Taxpayer Bailouts
Airlines All Over The World Are Using Iran And Fuel Prices To Demand Taxpayer Bailouts - View from the Wing https://t.co/lkSYVLPiTi
Did the JCPOA Transfer Hormuz Control to Iran?
Hey, folks, remind me—did the JCPOA cede any go-forward control of the Strait of Hormuz to Tehran? https://t.co/ioeUNlmi56
Central Banking's Power Spurs Redistribution or Revolution
The purpose of a system is what it does. Central Banking keeps centralizing power. The inevitable reaction to the centralization is redistributive policy or revolution. Which one will it be @RudyHavenstein ?? https://t.co/65VVPyx5OX
US Sanctions Waiver Fuels Russian Oil Gains Amid Iran Conflict
Why Russia is the big winner from the US-Iran war US sanctions waiver boosts Russian oil revenues https://t.co/uGny0kDGDL @DeutscheWelle
Pereira: Iran War's Economic Damage Still Unseen
ECB’s Pereira says the economic damage of Iran war has yet to show https://t.co/BXptMUK40T https://t.co/Kd8hPDCLGY
AI Firms Now Equal 0.1% of US GDP Each
New post w/ random thoughts on AI (thread) I will probably get a # wrong, but here we go :) 1/12 OpenAI & Anthropic now at 0.1% of US GDP *each* In a year, AI revenue likely to be 1-2% of US GDP What...
Italy Targets Sub‑3% Deficit Despite War‑driven Slowdown
Italy eyes deficit under 3% of GDP even as Iran war slows growth https://t.co/V0X5dmqBPv via @Alemrome @chiaraalbanese https://t.co/OqChsVFdrn