Global Economy Social Media and Updates
Global Economy Social Media and Updates
Global Economy Pulse
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
I'm afraid China's economic presence in Central Asia went way beyond oil, gas, and mining some time ago. If folks still think it's all just about extractive industries, they've missed quite a bit about the Chinese presence.
The FOMC is a mess. I have been writing about the original sin, the false flag of 2019, and a workable plan to kill inflation for 5 years. Here is Sundays client only DSR. I'm making it...
The visible forward book of China, Inc (state banks plus PBOC) -- or at least changes in the book after 2010 FX settlement data via Bloomberg 1/ https://t.co/IgUc2aEtHT
The first five oil shocks since 1970 triggered recessions. The sixth one in 2022 didn't. Now we're in the seventh spike. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/E0T0q5vh0c
Trying to get the folks who matter to care about industrial scale tax avoidance by US multinationals ...
Iranian FM Araghchi is talking of a new "post-war arrangement" for the Strait of Hormuz. Would be interesting to see what other details emerge. Right now, the markets are more focused on what kind of "war arrangement" might fall into place, if...
Trump Says Meeting With Xi Taking Place in Five to Six Weeks—President Trump said his planned summit in Beijing with Chinese President Xi Jinping will take place in about five or six weeks. @KThomasDC https://t.co/8gdFGagYZb
This measure of geopolitical risk just hit levels that put the current moment in the same league as the most dangerous moments of the 21st century. https://t.co/7ciy5RuN8b
My latest on tomorrow FED rate decision and what to expect for stocks and the US dollar
No one told Rubio that the United States is blocking oil shipments to Cuba. Trump wants to keep in the dark on this.
War, oil, and crypto collide with Ram Ahluwalia, Austin Campbell, Chris Perkins 🛢️ Why elevated oil risks flipping markets into an inflationary regime 📉 Deleveraging everywhere ₿ "Short gold, long Bitcoin" trade is back on the desk 🎲 Prediction markets...
PANTHEON MACRO: In a $150/barrel oil scenario, “we think inflation would peak in Q2 at about 6% ..” https://t.co/lFerTyCGCR
When the dust settles after tomorrow's Fed meeting, the potential economic costs of the war in Iran are likely to feel more real. Headlines will be hawkish with a greater emphasis on inflation, but downside risks to employment and disposable...
It should be taken with a grain of salt when you hear European and Asian countries saying they won’t help to open the Strait. Majority of these countries are short oil and will face severe crises if they don’t act....
This chart is going to look at lot different a month from now. Global Inflation Rates... https://t.co/97kgL1q8Hx
Plenty to talk about this week as @MrMBrown and I resume our weekly podcast. Amongst other things we'll be looking at crude oil's impact on markets which could well reverberate for some time #oilcrisis https://t.co/B6h8K0JLAj
FOMC interest rate decision will happen within 24 hours. The market expects a 99.1% odds of no rate cuts. https://t.co/mwK46vPADA
There's a good chance that the entire Russian shadow fleet could be dismantled within months. Beyond the impacts on Russian, Iranian, and other oil supplies, global shipping could be shifting towards a shortage as the vessels are retired. #crude #crudeoil #geopolitics...
SCOOP: The Trump administration intends to take additional steps to ease sanctions on #Venezuela’s oil sector in an effort to increase crude production as the #Iran war sends prices surging, sources tell me @GaripPatricia @peterbmillard @zerpius. https://t.co/aefUIb9tHJ
Tomorrow will be the most imporant FOMC meeting of our lives Until the next one
Global Central Bank Update: -Australia hiked rates for the second straight month, 25 bps move up to 4.10%. https://t.co/tBFSesl4qo
🇧🇷🇨🇳 Brazilian officials will head to China next week to discuss the ongoing sanitary issues with soybean exports. Brazil's minister said they have stepped up inspection efforts, yet he also said there has been no change in protocol. https://t.co/RrTP0clcZT
The market is pricing in three things simultaneously: • Oil stays above $100 • Fed cuts rates • Inflation falls to 2% You can have two. Not all three. If oil wins → stagflation. If Fed capitulates → dollar collapses. If demand craters → recession. Every...
Here is what I think will happen if USA can't keep strait of Hormuz open - I do think that USA will have a very low threshold for pain in the Gulf because Trump is elected on avoiding 'forever wars'....
The word warflation does not appear in any economics textbook. But it is the most accurate word for what is coming.
"Global airlines sounded the alarm ... over soaring jet fuel prices triggered by the US-Israeli war against Iran, warning of hundreds of millions of extra costs, higher fares and cuts to some routes." Delta fuel costs up by $400mn for March...
Keep Hormuz closed long enough and it is a mathematical and logistical certainty. The only debate is "How long is 'long enough' to make that happen?"
Actually Higher Oil Prices, cause Demand destruction that causes recession that causes Fed to cut
Oil prices climbing to $125 could shift the global economic outlook – Morgan Stanley’s Seth Carpenter @seekingalpha https://t.co/W6t7v236nu
The equity market was "resilient" at the start of the Russia-Ukraine war as well...it took five weeks of high oil prices before stocks started to capitulate to inflation pressures in 2022. https://t.co/CXaKnBXbHv
My list of accounts to follow for quality information about the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz holds up two weeks later… 👇👇
Have sense that the floodgates will open on EZ inflation forecasts tomorrow. We have been updating daily since last week with the final HICPs from the individual countries, and I still think we're behind the curve ahead of the numbers...
China learned economic coercion from the best, as I wrote with Adam Szubin in this coauthored 2023 essay in @ForeignAffairs: https://t.co/fsxpb7Zusb
Pakistan looks like the Asian energy importer that is most at risk because of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. More at today's Chartbook Top Links: https://t.co/7rDXmrxVqy
Very good meeting with Greece's Minister of Economy & Finance Kyriakos @Pierrakakis, the President of the Eurogroup, at IEA HQ in Paris We discussed recent developments in energy markets amid the war in the Middle East and the potential economic implications...
Hello from Germany, where investor confidence plummets on the Iran war. An expectations index by the ZEW institute decreased to -0.5 in March from 58.3 in Feb. That’s below all estimates in a Bloomberg survey, which had foreseen a reading...
The FOMC meets this week but no one's paying attention. Markets are focused on geopolitics, not rate decisions. Here's what actually matters: the dot plot, the statement language, and the three scenarios that could move markets.
LA is coming back strong from weak conditions earlier this year. As port volumes return from Chinese New Year, we could see a resurgence of momentum.
🇺🇸🇨🇳Trump says they are "resetting" the meeting with China that was supposed to occur March 31-April 2. That's now been pushed 5-6 weeks out, putting it around April 21 - 28. Ag markets had been hoping the meeting would result in more...
The Fed starts its most consequential meeting of the year today. Oil is above $100. The S&P 500 clings to its 200-day moving average. Wednesday's dot plot will reveal whether any rate cuts survive in 2026. The answer could set...
👇This is the way (to look at marginal consumer spending) spot on, again @EPBResearch !
Despite the recent steepening of the back-end, hard to fade and set up for next week's auctions with FOMC tomorrow. Fed clarification on how they view the recent crude inflation will have a strong impact on the...
Coming up in 1 hour LIVE @TheNationalNews Discussion of economic impact of Mideast warfare With @ManusCranny https://t.co/1QprixfNpq
Is there ever NOT a "refinancing wall"? Feel like I've been seeing charts like that for 20 years...
PHOTO(S) OF THE DAY: China is still getting (some of) its oil — and Iran its getting (some of) its money. Three weeks into the war, Iran continues loading oil supertankers from Kharg Island. (No damage visible at this resolution) Photo @CopernicusEU...
Great piece by @MelissaLawford in @Telegraph on tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and what's going on in global markets. Brent is up 42% from before the war, a big risk premium. As oil tanker traffic picks up, this...
🚨 TRADERS JUST TIPPED THEIR HAND BEFORE FED The market is already telling us what to expect from the Fed - and smart traders are paying attention. Stocks are rallying and the dollar is pulling back ahead of Wednesday's Fed decision. That's...
Private credit default rate just hit 9.2%. That's higher than 2008 bank loan peaks. $1.8 trillion in assets, $100B in secondary liquidity. 18:1 mismatch. When exits close, panic starts. https://t.co/PTz3djlLMl
Trumps learns the hard way the importance of diplomacy and soft power… GeopoliticalGuy | Substack https://bit.ly/4rAmIyw #Geopolitics #Iran #NATO #Hormuz #Trump
BRUSSELS, March 17 (Reuters) - European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas pushed back on Tuesday against a call by Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever to normalise relations with Moscow and regain access to cheap Russian energy.
