China, Russia Offer Discounted Gas, Bypass USD, Challenge Qatar
China and Russia building new natural gas pipelines to replace Nordstream. Asian countries being courted to buy natural gas at 40% discount to market rates. Won’t be priced in USD. Permanent shift from Qatar which will take years and billions to rebuild capacity. https://t.co/lQ9MX4EpT8
Ceasefire's TACO Shock Highlights Hormuz's Market Impact
A real ceasefire would be a true TACO moment, writes @TheMichaelEvery A Suez-scale shock. Energy might dip short term, but who controls Hormuz matters more. Markets aren’t priced for either outcome. #Oil #Geopolitics #Hormuz
IMF Adds 11 Conditions, Total 75, Deepening Pakistan's Debt Crisis
#PAKWatch🇵🇰: The IMF slapped 11 new conditions on Pakistan under its $7 BILLION bailout scheme. This brings the total number of IMF conditions to a WHOPPING 75. PAK = DROWNING IN DEBT = A SINKING SHIP. FREE IMRAN KHAN. https://t.co/BChtApWv3F
US Seizure Signals Broken Order, Looming Global Conflict
The US seizing an Iranian tanker near Sri Lanka is a precedent @MarioNawfal But we’re past “precedents.” The old order is broken. Some kind of world war is developing. That's terrifying but let's start looking at what's happening with ruthless honesty. #Geopolitics #Shipping...
Hormuz Closure Triggers Battery Material Shortage
The Hormuz Closure Is Driving a Shortage of Battery Ingredients #energysky -- via Heatmap News https://t.co/qbM9aqdKdm https://t.co/1qVldYbwTl
Pacific Nations Struggle as Global Fuel Crisis Hits Families
JUST IN: Pacific nations are battling a global fuel crisis, with governments scrambling for energy and families hit by restrictions and rising costs for food and healthcare.
Venezuela’s Bolivar Plummets 84%, Calls for Dollarization
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Venezuelan bolivar ranks as the WORLD'S WORST currency. The bolivar has depreciated by over 84% against the USD in the past year. VENEZUELA = NEEDS TO OFFICIALLY DOLLARIZE. https://t.co/UKq5yzjxYD
Fed Hearing Signals End of Easy Money Era
Markets are bracing for a major shift. Kevin Warsh's Fed hearing signals a move toward less intervention, a smaller balance sheet, and stricter inflation control. Banks rallied, but the era of easy money may be ending. FederalReserve
President Blocks Refunds, Sues IRS, Claims Taxpayer Loyalty
So the president is telling companies not to claim refunds for the tariffs which would be passed on to consumers, because it will remove funds from the economy, but he’s also suing the IRS for $10 billion. Yep, he only...
Brad Setser Weighs in on Chinese Current Account Puzzles
Curious what @Brad_Setser makes of the arguments made in "The Chinese current account imbalances: Puzzles, patterns, and possible causes" by Chang Ma and Shang-Jin Wei of Fudan. https://t.co/Ysceo5gx1a https://t.co/ZvoJfqSbzn
Iran‑US Stalemate Raises Market Uncertainty
The Iran war is at a stalemate as the US hits pause on talks amid conflicting signals from Tehran. Is this good or bad news for the stock market? #stockmarket #IranWar #oil #dollar #gold #macro #trading https://t.co/Fc1ybvv6V0
Conflicting Claims Reveal Doubt Over Near-Term Peace
🇺🇸 Trump: Ceasefire extended, peace talks coming 🇮🇷 Iran: "Buying time for a surprise attack" + Hormuz stays shut Who do you think is lying? I'm not convinced peace is close. Still sell-the-rally over buy-the-dip?! $SPY $QQQ $USO $XOM $CVX $VIX $DJIA https://t.co/wzI3OltwU5
VIX Surge Signals Rising Market Volatility
Lots to discuss on markets. #Warsh $VIX #Inflation #Volatility $AAPL. TUNE INTO @CNBC worldwide NOW as I dissect higher $VIX.
See Markets as One System, Not Separate Pieces
The biggest mistake many people make when "looking" at markets? Thinking in pieces. 📊 Oil 💵 Dollar 📈 Yields 📉 Equities Not separate — one system. Fragmentation = confusion Wholeness = clarity The edge is seeing the whole fractal move https://t.co/sAUHD9fdg4
Fed Chair Role Requires Consensus, Not Unique Vision
A lot of economists secretly believe that any PhD trained economist with the resources and economist support of the Fed could be Fed Chair. That's because the Fed is so solid, it only requires a leader willing to go with...
China's Oil Wells at Risk Without Immediate Iranian Flow
Iran is without revenues, but way more important is that the oilwells that China relies on might be permanently damaged if oilflows does not start again within a short time
Libya's Central Bank Funded Tripoli Assault Through Abu Dhabi
Eastern Libya’s Top Money Man - or how Libya’s central bank financed the assault on Tripoli by way of Abu Dhabi. The Sentry article featured in the Chartbook Top Links today. https://t.co/zY0VaxASFE https://t.co/unp3sIz4If
IEEPA Tariff Refunds Flawed and Likely To
New, from me & @AlfredCObregon: "IEEPA Tariff Refunds Are Far from Ideal—and Could Get Farther" https://t.co/TzV6NA3wCr https://t.co/4NOEcAZJKJ
Commodities Win High Inflation;
GS: Commodities have tended to outperform in periods of high and rising inflation but with falling inflation real estate and infrastructure stocks have tended to perform better https://t.co/uKhMnG8nTd
USD Floor and Oil Stabilization Signal Fed Trouble
The greenback found a short-term floor at $97.90 just as oil stopped going down. That's not a coincidence. Both are telling you the Fed is screwed. EM and credit feel it first because they fund in dollars and import the oil.
Warsh Pushes Fed Reform, but Independence Risks Political Pushback
What we learned at the Warsh hearing today • He's serious about his reform agenda, which extends from how the Fed does its economic analysis to how it communicates with the public • He cited inflation measures that are a bit more...
Ceasefire Indefinite as Trump Nears War Exit
talks suspended, ceasefire now indefinite. trump edging closer to getting out of the war irrespective of outcomes in the region.
War and Inflation Redefine the Market Regime
Absolute Return Podcast #272 Inflation, War, and the New Market Regime with arcMacro Founder Dylan Smith https://t.co/YruLKBcxdr
Blockade Persists: No War, No Peace, No Shipments
Trump: I have therefore directed our Military to continue the Blockade and, in all other respects, remain ready and able, and will therefore extend the Ceasefire until such time as their proposal is submitted. - So: No war No peace No ships No oil, LNG, fertilizer, or...
Balancing Economic Scale with Countering Rival Coercion
Thoughtful essay from @edwardfishman on how to "preserve the scale modern economies require while neutralizing the coercive power of rivals such as China and Russia" https://t.co/1cxfvxMWWB
Europe’s 450 M Consumers Offer Leverage over China
Mertz nails it - 450 mio CONSUMERS is what Europe is - and that gives us leverage against the world’s factory - China. But only if we team up with someone who has tech and hard power.
Kallas Pushes Free Hormuz Passage, Hints Toll
Kallas is arguing for free passage through Hormuz. Sounds like someone is brewing on building a tollbooth
Brent Surpasses $100 as VP Vance Cancels Islamabad Trip
Brent oil is back above $100 after US Vice President JD Vance called off his Islamabad trip. This follows Iran’s refusal to join talks there to negotiate an end to the War or, at the minimum, extend the ceasefire, which is...
Trump’s War Tactics Alienate Key Asian Allies
My take on the Trump's war strategy on @MarioNawfal: "Indonesia, South Korea, Japan, Philippines, and India are under the gun. The US-Israeli war has imposed massive costs on them. Now they are pivoting away from the US." TRUMP = A MASTERCLASS IN HOW...
Trade Official's Import Limits Raised Fertilizer Costs for Farmers
"If the president is worried about high fertilizer prices, he might want to have a conversation with his top trade official... [who] lobbied for policies that limited fertilizer imports and drove up prices for American farmers." Drain. The. Swamp. https://t.co/IU5lNBpAfN https://t.co/OcSBv6gDxx
Lower Rates Needed to Manage Unmanageable Federal Debt
Hearing Kevin Warsh talk about Fed independence, and watching hard assets sell off on that, feels a lot like the hype around DOGE. Great in theory, but ultimately unrealistic. The reality is that government debt has reached a scale that no brilliant...
GCC Nations Turn Net Drains on Offshore Dollar Liquidity
The UAE's request for a swap line -- presumably after a big fall in the central bank's $285b in reserves in March/ early April -- confirms that the GCC countries are now a net drain on offshore dollar liquidity. The Saudis...
History Shows Tariffs Deepened the Great Depression
"This did not come as a surprise to students of economic history. We have studied the Tariff regime in the 1930s, which more or less had the exact same results. They may not have caused the Great Depression, but they...
Prediction Market Gives 35% Chance Hormuz Traffic Normal by May 15
Since energy and capital markets are growing increasingly complacent on US-Iran headlines, have to look to more direct prediction markets to get actual takes on progress. Kalshi's market for traffic in the Strait of Hormuz to return to normal by May...
Iran's Oil Stockpile Bypasses US Blockade, Sales to China Persist
My take w/ @WallStBullion on the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz: "Iran has ~180m barrels of oil floating outside the Strait. Even with the US blockade, revenue from oil sales will keep flowing into Iran. Iran will be able...
Europe Still Buying U.S. Defense Amid Domestic‑Buy Talk
Interesting detail from today’s Northrop Grumman Q1 earnings call re. European demand. Despite political messaging in Europe about buying domestically and reducing reliance on U.S. suppliers, Northrop made clear that European customers remain highly engaged buyers of American systems.
Stop Treasury's TGA Use to Shrink Fed Balance Sheet
One serious way to reduce demand for reserves--which is the only way you can reduce the balance sheet from here--is to get Treasury to stop using the TGA. Treasury's use of the TGA both increases the minimum necessary size of...
Inflation Rose to 3% Ahead of Trump's Tariffs
it actually rose to 3% in Biden's last two months, it had been lowerl, but people began buyingh stuff in advance of Trump's tariffs, pushing prices higher on things like cars and cameras. But this stuff is too complicated for...
QT Arguments Clash with QE-Driven Inflation Narrative
You see a lot of people try to argue that quantitative tightening didn’t tank markets and reduce inflation because it came out of the RRP. But you can’t argue this if you also argue that QE going into the RRP...
Fed's Shift: From Late Powell to Sock Puppet Warsh
It seems like the Fed is going from “Too Late” Powell to “Sock Puppet” Warsh. Will “Sock Puppet” Stick?
Copper at $6 Signals Economy’s Health Boost
Here comes "The Doctor," touching $6 again. They call it Doctor Copper because the metal's action diagnoses a sick or recovering economy. A nice 55.1 on ISM Manufacturing Production indicates the industrial sector has been taking its Vitamin (C)opper. https://t.co/BGqFYLIPUI
New BOK Governor Emphasizes Inflation Control and Financial Stability
Interesting passage from @HyunSongShin's first speech as governor of the Bank of Korea: https://t.co/usPzjCjld0 https://t.co/DePG6zH4MH
QE: Reverse Robin Hood, Stealing From Poor, Enriching Rich
Bravo, Mr. Warsh, for speaking the truth and not repeating Bernanke's jibberish. "QE is reverse Robin Hood. It’s policy that steals from the poor, to give to the rich." - Kevin Warsh "Higher stock prices will boost consumer wealth and...
Warsh Denies President Asked About Rate Cuts
Warsh says reports that the president asked him if he would lower rates if nominated were fake news.
Fed Must Prioritize Chronic Inflation Risk Management
Warsh addressed none of this in his nomination hearing. FTR, I think inflation is more of a chronic risk than an acute problem, but risk management is central to what the Fed is supposed to be about.
China May Follow Iraq Model for Gulf Deals
Wait for things to shake out and then make deals with Gulf states on the other side, leveraging its own offerings? Iraq, where China is a dominant player in the upstream, maybe an instructive precedent for China ...
Inflation Trajectory Improves, but Work Remains Ahead
Warsh: the trajectory on inflation is improving, but there's more work to do This may well serve as a summary of his testimony as well.
UK Consumer Confidence Falls to 33‑month Low
Reuters reports that the UK consumer confidence index has slid to 42.3, the lowest in 33 months. RUSSOPHOBE STARMER IS CAPTAINING A SINKING SHIP. https://t.co/csiMRSlqnp
China and US Fight Tightening Copper Market
A global tug of war between the SHFE (China) and the Comex (USA) for copper
Fed Balance Sheet Shrinkage Doesn't Cool Inflation or Markets
The notion that Warsh shrinking the balance sheet would put downward pressure on inflation or that it would deflate asset prices is one of the most ludicrous propositions that anyone following monetary policy and markets over the past 20 years...