How Global Imbalances Ripple Across Nations
Adam Tooze has a very good new Substack article on global imbalances. I discuss below where I (mostly) agree and disagree (more in emphasis than in substance), focusing especially on how imbalances are transmitted from country to country. @adam_tooze https://t.co/n6KhuJ5NMS
Private Credit Strain May Tighten Liquidity, but 2008 Repeat Unlikely
Due to faulty marketing targeting inexperienced retail investors, private credit problems are making headlines. With the headlines, broader financial system confidence and sentiment are in play. If private credit concerns spread, liquidity in the traditional and shadow banking...
Hormuz Turns Trade Weaponization Frontline, Threatening Maritime Security
Hormuz becomes frontline in ‘weaponisation of trade’. Is there currently maritime security and safety? https://t.co/NoAhibd8ud
Mexico Core Inflation Falls to 4.27%
Not sure what to do with this one, but Mexico core inflation down to 4.27%.......
Central Banks Dominate Ahead of UK Banks, US Tech Earnings
Central banks in focus as UK banks, and US tech giants get set to report https://t.co/zZXdVGgOPE #Fed #BOE #AAPL #NWG
Putin Orders Oil Profits to Relieve Russian Banking Crisis
Looks like Russia may finally be facing a banking and economic crisis. Putin has told Russia’s oil and gas companies that they should use windfall oil profits triggered by the war in Iran “to reduce their debt burden and pay...
Warsh: Tariffs Cause Temporary Price Spikes, Not Inflation
Senator: "Some Fed officials have said this excess [3%] inflation is due to tariffs. Do you agree?" Warsh: "No, I don't. ... the data is imperfect ... trimmed averages take out the tail risk ... [I will] survey a billion prices" The...
Warsh's Push to Cut Fed Liquidity Tests Rate Limits
Curious, if Warsh wants to trade in fiscal dominance for fiscal discipline - removing to start the $300B/yr Fed liquidity program Powell approved to ease REPO volatility - how low do rates go & how does he get them down...
UK Yields Rise as BoE Shuns Gilt Buying, Unlike ECB
In Oct. '22, the Bank of England refused to keep buying gilts, in contrast the ECB that capitulated to Italy and Spain, capping their yields that summer. Markets now price yield caps for Italy and Spain, but not for the...
Apologizes for Misstatement on Trump's War Economic Impact
Great to have been with @davidfrum on his show for @TheAtlantic talking about economic impact of Trump's war But I did say something stupid I need to correct, with apologies to him and the listeners [1/4]
Vietnam, Philippines Face Sharpest ASEAN Inflation Due to Iran War
Talking about demand decline? here are additional examples ASEAN inflation: Vietnam and Philippines hit hardest by Iran war https://t.co/5t6VZtznvz
Mexico's Economy Minister Urges Future‑Focused Trade Over Zero‑Tariff Nostalgia
JUST IN: Mexico's economy minister warns against longing for the zero-tariff era, pushing for a forward-thinking trade strategy.
German Chancellor and IEA Discuss War‑driven Energy Risks
Productive bilateral meeting with Chancellor Friedrich Merz of Germany @bundeskanzler in Berlin We discussed the impacts of the Middle East war on energy markets & economies; @IEA's response to counter supply disruptions; & how to boost industrial competitiveness in this context...
Yields Climb as U.S.-Iran Tension Meets PMI Watch
JUST IN: Treasury yields rise amid ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions, with investors eyeing April PMI data.
German Services PMI Plummets Amid Iran War Uncertainty
Good Morning from Germany, where private-sector activity unexpectedly shrank as the Iran war triggered the steepest drop in the services sector in more than three years. S&P's Composite German PMI fell to 48.3 in April, down from 51.9 in March....
Manufacturing Prices Surge, Services Prices Remain Flat
🇪🇺 The PMI chart landing on @Lagarde's desk: - big rise in output prices in manufacturing (less than half of the 2022 peak) - very small rise in prices charged in services Consistent with a hold in April, and a cautious stance...
Indian Equities Slide on Middle East Tensions
JUST IN: Indian equities slide as financial and auto stocks pull back amid Middle East tensions.
Markets Price Aggressive ECB Hikes Amid Stagflation Risks
ERZ6 still pricing in 60-70bp in ECB hikes this year—in effect still glued to oil prices—even as the services PMIs drop through the trap door opened by Mr. Trump in the Middle East. Stagflation is tricky, and markets still see...
Energy Shock Hits Industry, Services See Limited Pass‑Through
🇪🇺 Mixed takeaways from euro area PMIs on the pass-through from energy prices. Bad news: a big shock going through industrial supply chains, all the way to output prices. Good news: more limited pass-through to prices charged in services (some in Germany,...
EU Positions Itself as Emerging Geopolitical Commission
So this may indeed turn out to be the "geopolitical Commission" EU working to secure its Western as well as Eastern flank ... 1/2 https://t.co/E5tZDyX9CS
Iran's Oil Still Flowing Despite Blockade, Analysts Misread
Can Iran Keep Pumping? The Blockade’s Impact on Oil Production, Exports, and Storage Analysts missed many facts about Iran's ability to generate revenues (with 4 charts) https://t.co/OARSMvZ93z https://t.co/99em4f6lOY
Yuan's Share of Global FX Trades Climbs to 8.5%
Bloomberg: "The yuan made up 8.5% of global currency transactions including spot, forwards, swaps and options, up from 7% in 2022. That compared with 89% for the dollar, 28.9% for the euro 16.8% for the yen, and 10.2% for the...
IMF Misjudges UAE's Need for Bailout
I would be the last person to accuse the IMF of hard headed surveillance of the GCC countries (the IMF treats fiscal and BoP surplus countries as model pupils ... see its treatment of Singapore) But for what it is worth,...
Bloomberg's Argentina Report Beats Bank Sales Pitch
Some excellent reporting here from Bloomberg (on Argentina) More hard hitting that a lot of investment bank research/ bonds salesmanship 1/ https://t.co/fM2uaDPWmh
Warsh's Metric Could've Foreseen Pre‑2022 Inflation Rise
If you read closely, Warsh’s new measure would have predicted inflation approaching before 2022. And yes it is correct to consider food and energy if done right. https://t.co/9Dpz8wn32N
Asian Markets Span Both Worst and Best Equity Indices
Did you know that the top two WORST equity indices globally are Asian ones and the top two BEST EQUITY indices are also Asian ones? When we talk about EM or Asia resilience, we are lumping VERY diverse performance into a...
Only One Ship Exited Hormuz—Unsustainable Trend
Number of ships that left Strait of Hormuz today: ONE. Singular. This is not sustainable. https://t.co/AMsiEvpfVy
US‑Iran Conflict Triggers LPG Shortage Across India
INDIA’s homes and restaurants hit by LPG shortage as a result of U.S.-Iran war: https://t.co/dzqx7u7PLP
Bitcoin Eyes Reversal as Markets Digest Iran Ceasefire
As most major markets - S&P 500, gold, bonds, oil, US dollar - are still trying to make sense of the "one-way ceasefire" in the Iran war, bitcoin is quietly trying to flip its downtrend... #stockmarket #IranWar #bitcoin #macro #trading https://t.co/vy877KICW6
Administration Worries About Dwindling GCC Investment Inflows
Good Politico story on the Administration's concerns about the loss of GCC investments here ... https://t.co/JySqztN8q4
Chip‑rich Economies Outpace Others Amid Iran War Shock
Good morning, We are Day 55 of the Iran War and divergence is widening. Negative energy supply shocks are being felt across the region but those with more buffers and chips do better. Memory chip prices are skyrocketing with chip-heavy indices...
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A bit more on the GCC swap line puzzle (why the ask, and why is Bessent apparently keen to say yes to a set of countries with tons of assets) There doesn't seem to be any shortage of good collateral (Treasuries)...
Canada Seizes Crisis to Diversify Asian Crude Supply
Canada is working hard to sell oil in Asia because every crisis is an opportunity. Asian refineries will likely emerge from this crisis to deploy capex to refine multiple types of crude & not just the Middle East variety.
Mexico Eyes Development Bank Chief as US Ambassador
SCOOP: Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaum is considering development bank head Roberto Lazzeri as a candidate for ambassador to the US, a move that would mark the second major personnel shift ahead of USMCA trade talks, sources tell me @michaelob_mex & me https://t.co/JopwSJrCg8
Japan's Naphtha Shortage Threatens Global Semiconductor Production
Semi Market, show me you care. "Japan is short on naphtha → Japan can't produce semiconductor materials → This could bring the world's semiconductor fabs to a halt."
Markets Likely Drift West as Rally's Momentum Fades
To go north east requires evidence of a disinflationary AI miracle. To go east of the dotted arc requires extreme policymaker easing. To go southwest requires the impossible - A hawkish Fed who cares about inflation. Most...
Landlocked Nations Need Diverse Links, Not Single-Partner Dependence
I'm afraid you can build a highway from Kyrgyzstan to western China but not from Kyrgyzstan to California. So if you're a landlocked economy, you do build infrastructure links to contiguous countries like China, especially when they have been growing,...
Revealed Vulnerability Shifts Bargaining Power; Iran's Capabilities Now Known
Bottom line: the issue isn't only what Iran can do. It's that everyone now knows what Iran can do. Revealed vulnerability changes bargaining power. https://t.co/icf9axhcM0
New Mix of Old Global Imbalance Trends
Global imbalances - April 2026. A new cocktail in old bottles. The latest Chartbook newsletter just dropped. Check it out here: https://t.co/mMfEDcYvoJ https://t.co/4w6QpQDXwo
US Threatens Canada Over Wine Ban Amid USMCA Talks
Carney Asada: Canada will get chopped up by USMCA renegotiation. From our early March note 👇 https://t.co/Eca6Me0P8D
AI Earnings Prop Up Markets Amid Iran Tensions
Tom Lee Agreed With Me - LOL $SPX Markets are holding up despite geopolitical tension from War in Iran, as strong AI-driven earnings mask economic weakness. Risks from #crudeoil price/supply shocks aren't priced in but narrow leadership is. Seasonality tilts bearish soon... https://t.co/3v10TYbjuc
US Opens Tough Cuba Talks, Deadline Looms This Week
The U.S. has begun new negotiations with Cuba, presenting sweeping demands with a looming deadline later this week. Full analysis available exclusively for Analyst Tier members on Patreon ➡️ https://t.co/MG6vaQVGos #cuba #geopolitics https://t.co/Y4hhm8sZaK
Ships Use Territorial Waters to Bypass US Blockade
How can dozens of ships defeat the US Blockade, as the FT repost below says is happening? The map shows how a tanker can travel from Kharg Island to Mumbai while remaining within the territorial waters of Pakistan and India. The US...
Fertilizer Price Surge Triggers Gradual Food Inflation
Rising fertilizer prices are now hitting farmers, and eventually those will translate into higher wholesale food prices which will (assuming higher costs are passed onto consumers) eventually land at grocery stores too. The inflationary impulse doesn’t arrive all at once,...
Trimmed‑average Inflation: Only Gauge Still Trending Lower.
Yesterday, Kevin Warsh said he favors using trimmed-average inflation measures... Of course he does.... It’s probably the only “inflation” gauge still somehow trending lower. Yep.... I’ll say it again: None of us own enough hard assets. https://t.co/psqdXXGW7Q https://t.co/LS43LWLsQe
Presidents' Oil Price Moves During Hormuz Crisis
A brief history of presidential oil price jawbones through the Hormuz crisis. Feel free to add your favourites below. https://t.co/iF0JvVgn0v
Somalia's Israel Ship Ban Threatens Bab Al-Mandeb Stability
Somalia. Ban on Israel ships. Bab al-Mandeb Strait. Ban or more pirate attacks? Global maritime is showing signs of upheaval.
Indonesia's Strait Fee Sparks UNCLOS, Supply‑Chain Turmoil
Indonesia. Impose fee on ships going thru the Strait of Malacca. Learned money lesson from Iran. UNCLOS? Will there be military action to stop it? More maritime and supply chain hell.
S&P Earnings Growth Likely Peaks 2028‑2030 After Rate Cut
Street consensus, S&P 500 earnings growth: 2026: +21.8% 2027: +14.8% Those are big, tough-to-achieve numbers. But look at the historic record. The S&P's earnings growth rate historically peaked 40 to 76 months after the first Fed rate cut. Yes, forty to seventy-six. Powell...
Ship Seizures Signal Iran’s Growing Control of Hormuz
Ship Seizures Mark New Phase in Iran’s De Facto Control of Hormuz. With extended ceasefire. The situation looks shaky. https://t.co/pThf20VEbW