Guangdong Power Prices Near Double Amid LNG Shortage
Power prices in China's industrial hub have almost doubled due in part due to a natural gas supply crunch 🇨🇳⚡ Spot rates in Guangdong climbed to ~680 yuan/MWh — a three-year high. The region is getting 40% less LNG due to the Middle East conflict https://t.co/35yD3WE5zk
Qatar's $600B Surplus Faces First Deficit in Decade
Qatar's accumulated current account surplus (which excludes capital gains on the QIA's investments) over the last 40ys is USD 600b give or take Qatar can afford a few months of deficits . But it still hurts https://t.co/zcG5etAkVY
B+ Growth Masks Recession-Scale Deficit Mismatch
A B+ economy with a recession-sized deficit is like showing up to a Sunday barbecue in full scuba gear. Technically you’re dressed, but something doesn't add up. https://t.co/3BmlhUlHQr
UAE Central Bank’s Cash‑Equivalents Share of Reserves Fell
Alex hasn't quite internalized how bad my eyes are and how much I need BIG FONTS ... but this is super interesting -- the UAE has a ton of cash equivalents on its central bank balance sheet (the various bars). ...
Tooze and IMF Overlook Exchange Rates in Imbalance Analysis
I cannot criticise Tooze for leaving out the exchange rate as a central variable when the IMF (... the IMF ... lest we forget, whose mandate is around exchange rates and the balance of payments) also left the exchange rate...
Congress' Massive Export Crackdown Fails to Shield US Chips
Tech war: US Congress rolls out ‘largest’ export control upgrade against China Let's be clear, this does nothing to "protect" the US semiconductor industry.. https://t.co/ic51dxC2bF
Trump’s Trade Policies Spark Heightened Commodity Demand
My take on @PalisadesRadio on why commodities are HOT: "Trump's tariffs and sanctions have disrupted the global movement of goods. There is risk and uncertainty as to what Trump will do next, and that increases a precautionary demand for commodities of...
Only 31% Chance of US‑Iran Peace Deal by May
According to @Polymarket, there is only a 31% chance of a US–Iran permanent peace deal by the end of May. TRUMP = FOREVER WAR = ANTI-MAGA. https://t.co/yzmYFnG1W9
Warsh Pushes Balance Sheet Shrinkage via QE Resolution Fund
As I wrote with Matt Sekerke in @WSJ, the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, is CORRECT. He wants to SHRINK the Fed’s balance sheet. So do we. The only way to do it cleanly and rapidly is through the establishment of a...
Money Supply Growth Hits 3.5%, Far Below Historic Median
The collective money supply growth rate across the US, Japan and Eurozone is 3.5%, lower than 83% of all readings since 1997. The median is 4.9%. I don't want to minimize Hormuz, but as far as this chart is concerned,...
Private Credit Masks Volatility, Echoes 2008 Shadow Banking
Private credit may hide volatility, but hiding it doesn't make it disappear. We learned that lesson with shadow banks in 2008. Is private credit just shadow banking with a new name? Partly yes, partly no. The honest answer is rarely...
US Announces Preliminary Antidumping Tariffs on Solar Imports
Commerce releases prelim antidumping tariffs in India, Indonesia, Laos solar case #energysky -- via Solar Power World: https://t.co/JT14vdnOoi
Double Blockade in Persian Gulf Spikes Global Energy Prices
The situation in the Persian Gulf has worsened. Despite the ceasefire, a double blockade has broken out. It's one big cluster, and the global energy markets are feeling the heat. #iranwar #crudeoil #geopolitics https://t.co/iV7sYWClso
Oil Would Need $350 to Trigger 1970s‑style Inflation
My Leading Inflation Index has jumped to 3.95% after the recent surge in oil prices. But even this is not even remotely close to resembling the 1970s. In order to get a 1970s style rate of inflation (10%+) you'd need...
Admin Claims New Iran Terror Premium in Oil Prices
From the @DallasFed special edition of its energy survey: “… The administration’s comment about an “Iran terror premium” existing for decades with oil pricing is laughable. But now the administration has created one where it did not exist before…” — anonymous...
Easy Policy Fuels Stock Rise, Then Yield Spike Crashes Markets
One of the popular narratives is from those focused on easy policy stance and persistent inflation. It follows the purple line. Higher stock prices with modestly higher yields driven by growth and inflation and then a capitulation by central...
White House May Extend Jones Act Waiver 90 Days
90 days? As in 3 more months? Surely they can't expect the Hormuz crisis to last until July... right?
China Advances Tech, Economy Hesitates, Military Stalls
our first ask ian live. a caller asked if china is shifting from second gear to third. technologically, yes. economically, maybe. militarily, not so much. xi still playing the long game. @gzeromedia
China Moves From Sanctions Victim to Export Regulator
"After years...on the receiving end of sanctions, China is now developing its own export control regime. Last year's controls on rare earths only signalled the beginning of what might be a much greater degree of intervention" - from @China_Digital https://t.co/EzBswTk66J
Chinese Export Share Soars as US Tariffs Shift Demand
China’s share of global car sales jumped from 4.5% to 11.4%, and global sales of electronics JUMPED from 20.7% to 26.1%. The scope and scale of Chinese exports is SURGING. Thanks to Trump's tariffs, the world is pivoting away from made in...
China Seeks Oil Edge via Hormuz Amid Global Supply Strains
Strait of Hormuz. Oil. China vs others. Are they in a position to gain an edge with needy countries? Then what with trade supply chains?
Tariff Refunds Clouded by Trump Favoritism
Check the Vegas odds of Trump keeping some of the illegal import tax monies. How long will tariff refunds take? Why is this not a clean process? Will Lutnick’s sons who bought tariffs on the cheap be given special treatment?
Sanctions Spur Dramatic Diversification of Iran’s Trade
Under the sanctions regime, Iran’s trade has diversified dramatically. More featured on today's Chartbook Top Links in the comment below https://t.co/YVEjDdiUTn
Dollar Climbs, Risk Appetite Sours, Markets Tumble
Dollar has rallied; VIX spiked; equities, gold, emerging markets and Bitcoin have dropped. News of Ghalibaf bowing out of US-Iran negotiations not being taken favorably from a 'risk appetite' perspective
China Shifts Commodity Payments to CNY, Sidelines USD Crisis
It matters greatly, here's why: 1. China can run out of USD, but it can't run out of CNY. 2. China's biggest USD outflow is in commodity imports - est. $1.5-2.0 trillion in commodities, mostly in energy. 3. So every 10% of their...
China's Potential Oil Buying Strike Mirrors Missing Supply
Has anyone thought about the possibility that China is on a full buyers strike in oil markets? That would remove (at least in oil barrels) almost the same barrels that we are currently missing
Israel's Inflation On Target, Money Supply Grows Within Golden Rate
Israel’s inflation is 1.9%/yr in March. That's within Israel’s 1%-3%/yr target. Israel’s broad money supply is growing at 8.08%/yr, WITHIN Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 7.7%-9.7%/yr, a rate consistent w/ Israel’s 1%-3%/yr target. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/vCdAIfLoB0
Corporate Profits Rise, but Wages Melt Under Inflation
Stocks and corporate profits are up despite the war. But the wages of average Americans are being eroded by skyrocketing inflation. My analysis this morning on @morningjoe.
Middle East Conflict Sparks Looming Global Food Crisis
My latest on how the conflict in the Middle East is threatening a global food crisis https://t.co/J5zkfEobhr
AI Cuts Service Costs Unseen, Inflating Official Rates
AI is already making services far cheaper, but probably not in ways captured in the inflation deflator. So inflation is going to look higher than it really is, which could mean the Fed overtightens.
UK Business Confidence Plummets to 45-Year Low
UK quarterly business confidence from the CBI crashed in its update this morning (-27 to -38). Worst balance of confidence - outside of the pandemic - in 45 years... https://t.co/SpvRFSzNHK
Fed's Balance Sheet Fix: Impact Is Modest
The impact of completely correcting the UST duration holdings of the Fed 101🧵 Despite the warnings and hyperventilation of the usual suspects, correcting the Fed's balance sheet is just not that big a deal. Today the balance sheet has a...
Middle East Still Holds Trillion in Dollar Assets, Not Switching
Tony Nash is right that the Middle East isn't de dollarizing. Iran wants sanctions relief so it (in some ideal world) can re dollarize and stop selling to China at a discount ... 1/2
Global PMIs Surpass Forecasts; Eurozone Contracts
The Composite PMIs - timely proxies for GDP for the major economies - largely beat expectations for April's update. The exception was the Eurozone and major member components, which missed forecasts significantly and slipped into contraction: https://t.co/g0G7ZJWDN1
Future Iran Deal Mirrors JCPOA: Limits for Relief
“… Any future nuclear deal with the current Iranian regime will rest on a familiar foundation: constraints on Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for meaningful economic relief…”
China’s New Supply‑Chain Rules Pose Risk to US Companies
AFP: China’s new supply chain regulations could be a “concern” for US firms, @AmCham_China warned. The regulations, released April 7, allow authorities to take measures against foreign companies that “harm China’s industrial and supply chain security.” https://t.co/bmnFKekxT7
Russia's War Debt Burden Threatens Banking System
Russia has a financial crisis looming The Kremlin shifted war costs from the sovereign balance sheet into the banking system. Now those loans are going bad. That bill is coming due. https://t.co/PzEExkohJo
Gulf States' Disunity Over Iran War Explained
the gulf states have been far from unified in their response to the iran war. here’s one big reason:
Stablecoins Could Transform Global Banking System
The one kind of crypto that might actually be useful There is one kind of crypto that I find interesting, and it has nothing to do with the shady world most associate with the term. I think stablecoins could help significantly...
Nowcast IQ Nails US PMI, Flags Europe Slowdown
The best Nowcast data on Earth? Solid PMIs from the US were just released, showing that economic momentum is gaining pace despite the war, and this was spot on with our live growth data from Nowcast IQ. The same applies to...
Rethinking Inflation: Ratios, Income Gaps, Price Levels
Enjoyed @mtkonczal latest piece. Exciting to see people seriously considering differing rates of inflation, ratios vs differences in income & wealth, and price levels. https://t.co/4nbD049Wvh
Iran War Inflation Shrinks Wage Growth Gap
Inflation from the War in Iran is eating into wage growth. Last month, the gap between the two almost closed, a trend that will likely continue into April. My @morningjoe Chart
Dropping US‑Iran Talk Deadlines From My Calendar
I am going to stop putting in proposed deadlines for the US-Iran talks into my macro calendar. Changing it intraday at this point...
Trump's Policies Turn Inflation From Crisis to Choice
Covid inflation was a global phenomenon. It went away when the covid supply shocks went away. Today, inflation is a policy choice. And all of Trump's policies so far have been--to one degree or another--inflationary War: inflationary Deficit: inflationary Tariffs:...
Mild Winter Averted Gas Price Spike Amid Hormuz Closure
Northern hemisphere’s mild winter averted worse gas crisis Global gas prices would have surged much higher as a result of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz if last winter had not been among the warmest on record across the northern...
War Boosts Oil and Big Tech, Sinks Airlines and Staples
The impact of the war has been uneven across the stock market. Sectors like oil exploration and big tech have surged while others, like airlines, consumer staples, and materials have been hit hard. My @morningjoe Chart
UK Consumer Confidence Hits Two‑year Low
JUST IN: UK consumer confidence has dropped to the lowest level in more than 2 years
Prolonged Oil Price Spikes Extend Equity Market Correction
With crude oil prices driving equities right now, let’s take a look at two examples of oil shocks. The 1990 Gulf War took oil prices from $41 to $100 (in today’s dollars) was short-lived and caused only a brief 19% drawdown...
Median Voter Demands Lower Inflation Than Fed Tolerates
I have come to believe the median voter has a different loss function than the Fed. The median voter wants inflation at 2% or lower and would tolerate higher unemployment as a tradeoff. The Fed’s revealed preference is at...
Low Crude Prices Persist Amid Historic Supply Shock
🚨 NEW POST 🚨 𝗦𝗮𝗻𝗴𝘂𝗶𝗻𝗲 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗶𝘁 𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗽𝗽𝗮𝗴𝗲 Making sense of relatively low crude prices through nearly two months of the largest oil supply shock in history https://t.co/1E2OX8hn8t