Global Economy Social Media and Updates
Global Economy Social Media and Updates
Global Economy Pulse
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
AI Productivity Stolen By Inflation 1. AI expands the supply of goods and services. That should mean lower prices for you—a pure win. 2. But that win gets stolen. The system prints more money, inflating prices to "offset" the natural drop. 3. They rob you of the reward of technological progress under the guise of "stable prices." It's a scam. AI #Inflation #Economy #Threads #Finance #MonetaryPolicy #Tech
Since 2019, bank lending to non-bank financial institutions (NBFI) has grown by nearly 60% vs only about 20% to non-financial corporations. Divergence has widened since mid-2022 when corporate lending stagnated while NBFI lending continued to rise steadily https://t.co/QEUhoq4feU
$USD was bought aggressively on a hawkish read of Powell's press conference on Wed and was sold harder yesterday in what seems to be an overreaction to the ECB and BOE. It has come back bid. Who wants...
The Draghi & Letta reports' diagnosis was stark: Europe is falling behind in productivity growth; Single Market remains fragmented; capital markets incomplete; innovation & scale financing insufficient. These are structural weaknesses, not cyclical ones. https://t.co/vne95qESQS
Key UK yield hits the highest level since 2008 as oil prices climb https://t.co/pWaz7E1WOL https://t.co/boVD8nEW6E
Makhlouf says an April ECB hike is possible if data signal there’s a need https://t.co/zEOl2Ko48A via @flacqua @jenniduggan @livfletcher_ https://t.co/IHW9dxYRHQ
By giving households direct access to central bank money in digital form, central bank digital currencies (CBDC) is frequently said to threaten bank deposits, disrupt credit creation, and shift seigniorage from commercial banks to the public sector. https://t.co/B04PPjhu5q
it's 6am. i'm drinking black coffee. a @tradingview alert just buzzed in my pocket and appeared on my screen to tell me the Canada 5-year yield just broke out to 14-month highs > ~3.1%... 🧐 cool. https://t.co/IHj3aa1dV0
Subtle but important point. The ECB's baseline incorporates nearly two rate hikes. The adverse and severe scenarios use the same assumptions, and thus may require more than two hikes to bring inflation back to target. Only makes things sligthly less...
JPM woke up this Friday morning and chose violence ... looking for back-to-back hikes from both the ECB and BOE.
US government policy helps Chinese state owned oil companies buy sanctioned Russian crude wasn't on my prediction list for this year. https://t.co/JFPLk4VSxF
And the sell side rolls in. April is punchy; I doubt they will see anything in the March HICP that scares them relative to the baseline. But the message is clear. Unless growth collapses they will hike, I think justifying...
Really recommend this interview between @freddiesayers and energy expert @HelenHet20 where Helen lays out why markets may be wrong in assuming things will return to normal once Iran is neutralised. The chaos may be the strategy. And whichever way you...
EU leaders confront multi-year energy squeeze after Qatar hit https://t.co/VJQeTgB0l1 via @johnainger @E_Krukowska @donatopmancini https://t.co/Res6oTlW0s
Chaos unleashed by Trump has Europeans building bridges with China https://t.co/pFSYzBf1W0 via @jendeben @ArneDelfs https://t.co/jlniO6pJgx
The global energy crisis will drag on even if the Iran war ends tomorrow: Energy Outlook Advisors https://t.co/xPMnRiP3fO
The People’s Bank of China added another ton of gold to its war chest in February. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/NQFzVWhA4P
Asia mixed; oil volatility and Fed caution weigh, China holds LPR. Oil spike raises inflation/Strait-of-Hormuz supply risk; Alibaba weakens sentiment. Trade: hedge Asian equities with oil puts. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
How is this new, @zriboua? The “China collapse” call has been made for decades Mostly because it doesn’t fit Western models. Yet it hasn’t broken. Maybe the model is wrong, not China. #China #Economics #Macro #Geopolitics #Trade
Bessent's suggestion to lift sanctions on Iranian oil is INSANE Congressman Scott Perry explains that the world gets the oil but Iran won't get paid b/c it's outside the global financial system now He's clinically INSANE #Oil #Iran #EnergyCrisis #Geopolitics #Markets
Iran won’t fold & Israel won’t stop, writes @gbrew24 Gulf security is damaged, possibly permanently. There’s no organic off-ramp—only a political one, and it runs through Washington. #IranWar #Geopolitics #EnergyCrisis #Hormuz #SystemicRisk #MiddleEast https://t.co/egfbcSbtHj
“Japan’s bid to build a “de-Chinafied” rare earth supply system – with Australia and Brazil on-board” https://t.co/LpDn23sEHq
Global Market Update: Gift Nifty +68.00 (0.29%) 23,188.00 DowJones -203.72 (-0.44%) 46,021.43 Nasdaq -61.73 (-0.28%) 22,090.69 India Vix +4.1125 (+21.97%) 22.8350 S&P 500 -18.21 (-0.27%) 6,606.49
China holds LPR 1y 3.00% /5y 3.50% for 10th month. PBOC uses liquidity ops and fiscal support; growth soft, yuan pressured. Risk: weak domestic demand. Trade: avoid long-duration China bonds. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
With global energy prices going vertical, the next metrics to watch are recession probabilities of net energy importers - particularly in South and Southeast Asia https://t.co/ehwgNBNqH4
“Get long and buckle up,” says Jeff Currie. It took -$37 to clear oversupply during Covid Currie's "mirror image" approach indicates it may take $175 BRENT TO CLEAR THIS SHORTAGE That’s not volatility—that’s a regime shift #OilMarkets #Brent #EnergyCrisis #Commodities #Macro #Supercycle
Markets still think this snaps back. It won’t, writes @elerianm This isn’t “transitory” It’s multiple equilibria, where each shock creates a new, worse baseline. #Macro #EnergyCrisis #SystemicRisk #Markets #Oil #Geopolitics
As an indication of how Iran is effectively playing its cards, its control of the Strait of Hormuz has forced Treasury Sec. Bessent to consider lifting sanctions on Iranian oil already at sea. US SANCTIONS ON IRANIAN OIL BACKFIRE. https://t.co/K8vL4AFi49
US new home sales collapsed by a stunning 17.6% MoM in January, the most in 13 years. If that’s not bad enough, since the US-Israeli war in Iran began, mortgage rates have surged. TRUMP'S IN TROUBLE. https://t.co/He7ZCDPq2p
It’s been another rollercoaster day in the oil market with both benchmarks trading in a wide range (CNBC charts below). Between the remarks from officials in Washington DC and those out of Israel — both following the attacks on energy infrastructure...
OUT NOW - how @Rory_Johnston sees it: Unless the Strait of Hormuz opens soon, $220 oil and a recession is "almost guaranteed." $300+ oil & Global Depression are possible. Apple🔊 https://t.co/hBJ1sBFqgN Spotify📽️ https://t.co/fnf6ENfHbf 1/3 https://t.co/gvV2pR4qXu
Distinguished UChicago Prof. John Mearsheimer on trusting US diplomacy: “International law has gone out the window, and diplomacy has gone out the window. You can’t trust the Israelis or the Americans as far as you can throw them.” https://t.co/bXOC31MInp
The real problem is nitrogen-based fertilizers, which are, as a rule, derived from oil-based naphtha or natural gas. Currently, Qatar takes natural gas produced at its South Pars gas field, which was recently struck by Iran, to make ammonia and...
Also in today's newsletter. Per the WIRP function on the terminal, not only are imminent rate cuts off the table, the market-implied policy path is actually *slightly* higher over the rest of the year now. https://t.co/FRganNTPH0
Every single day that this war goes on, the more the economic damage just compounds. This is the key line right here from @tracyalloway https://t.co/T6hrWxL1Op https://t.co/t8Qos0vB1A
“.. The plan .. reflects the administration’s desperation to reduce oil prices, encouraging Iran to sell more oil even while it is at war ..” @nytimes https://t.co/MWCiL3jrqQ https://t.co/wCWv18Be6N
We are in the midst of a hot war in the Middle East, with Oil prices kissing $120, a cooling (pre-war) labor market, and the odds of a recession ticking up from modest levels. And despite all of this geopolitical economic...
Apple Now Makes About 25% of iPhones in India After China Pivot. More on this in the Chartbook Top Links today. https://t.co/qnDkCJRBFG
The world moves on: "EU, Australia set to conclude trade talks early next week" https://t.co/0QuEvOaog1
‘One day chicken, one day feathers’: why US shale producers are not cheering $100 oil. This and more in the Chartbook Top Links today. https://t.co/cEMRj6MyHl
People assume oil shocks are bad. But is that true for the US? After all, we are net exporters. This week's newsletter works through some simple models and calculations https://t.co/wohddXGXAR
Following @IEA Member countries' decision to release 400 mln barrels of oil stocks to counter disruptions, initial volumes have already been made available Thank you to countries for their stock contributions & to Canada & Mexico for increased production: https://t.co/CjYXygzQpG https://t.co/sUGUpkuuU0
Important - U.S. admin says it has no plan to enact an oil export restriction
I'd say a 6.50% 30-year fixed seems like a foregone conclusion at this point. When not if... That'd be the first time rates were that high since last summer. Pretty sure the housing market can't handle a return to 7%, not...
Gold and Silver are down in what is a very interesting move in how the war is changing markets. In Gold, UAE is one of the largest importers (#1 in 2024, $105bn) and exporters (#2 in 2024, $78bn) of gold...
2 days ago, markets were still pricing in a (diminishing) bias towards imminent rate cuts. Now we are pricing in a (small) bias towards imminent rate hikes. Folks were not paying enough attention to the rise in the Fed's own inflation...
How high does oil have to get for recession probability to top 50%? $138. That's the average answer in our latest survey of economists, who generally see an increase in inflation but little impact on growth from the Iran war....
Energy insecurity starts here. Fossil fuels are traded through systems where price is influenced not only by supply and demand, but by conflict, sanctions, and speculation. That means households and utilities can face higher costs even when local production remains...
New at THE OVERSHOOT: The Fed is Misreading the Inflation Risks https://t.co/NIh6rJDQhK Inflation was getting worse *before the war* across a broad range of categories. Yet Fed officials are still blaming "one-time things". https://t.co/xbrposAsbQ
ECB sources suggesting they could hike in April, but if it goes that far I think June is more likely. ECB meeting: 30 April Consumer Expectations Survey (27 March, too early) Survey of Professional Forecasters (4 May, but they’ll get hints) Corporate Telephone...
