Strait of Hormuz Declared Open, yet Traffic Declines
He might still be in X jail, but interesting note from @sonusvarghese here. Last Friday (April 17th), President Trump and Iran’s foreign minister declared that the Strait of Hormuz was open. Over the past week, tanker crossings across the Strait have actually fallen. 🤷♂️🤷♂️🤷♂️ https://t.co/2yd8vsjEKD
Record Mortgage Renewals Spur Higher Rates, Dampening Spring Market
Will Higher Fixed Mortgage Rates Slow Down An Already Slow Spring Real Estate Market? PROBABLY Thing is when you're coming off ridiculously low 2025 Home Sales numbers in BC & Ontario: a very small increase in resales is inevitable But very bad...
EU's Regulatory Push Risks Own Economic Decline
The risk with the Brussels Effect strategy (“EU as the world’s regulator”) was always that it could catalyze a vicious cycle that suppresses regional GDP per capita and thus the EU’s leverage. Add to it a US administration willing to characterize...
Trump May End Probe, Threatening Powell’s Fed Chairmanship
Rumor has it Trump will drop the probe against Powell, which could end his tenure as Fed chairman. #mortgagerates #realestate #economics #inflation #chartdaddy
U.S. Rare‑Earth Dependence Gives China Leverage Over Iran
"There is only one ring in the world that Trump would ever kiss and its Xi's" @pboockvar on America's reliance on Chinese rare earth materials and how it could facilitate an end to the conflict in Iran https://t.co/MTKk4iotX0
Iran's Oil Sales Surge, Economy Strengthens Amid War
My take on @PalisadesRadio on why Iran is winning: "Since the US-Israeli war on Iran began, Iran has been selling more crude at HIGHER PRICES. Iran’s oil revenue has increased, the rial has appreciated, & inflation has come down." https://t.co/6yxURxFAlZ
US Imports Reroute $300B, Avoiding Tariffs Without New Supply Chains
"Rerouted U.S. Imports Avoiding Trump’s Tariffs Top $300B" https://t.co/UCqTwWQt8B "rerouting in response to tariffs is not being accomplished by building new capital-intensive supply chain relationships" 😲 https://t.co/4HbFA3ynRv
Higher Foreign Demand Fuels Surge in US Oil Exports
"We barely use the Strait … and we have plenty of energy. Just look at the new global congo line headed to Texas, a beautiful picture" 🫠 the "congo line" cometh bc others are willing to pay more for American barrels,...
Tiny Vessels Surge Through Strait of Hormuz During Brief Opening
Wild animation of the little shippies trying to race through the Strait of Hormuz during the few days it was "open" https://www.csis.org/analysis/strait-hormuz-8-charts
Analyzing Hormuz Oil Gap and Twitter Fury
I had an absolute blast joining @JacobShap & @Geo_papic on the Geopolitical Cousins pod to talk about the Hormuz oil supply hole. Come for the barrel math, stay for the "which Twitter replies drive me to douse myself with gasoline and...
Geopolitical Whispers Fuel Market Volatility Ahead of Central Bank Decisions
Iran headlines are driving everything today $DXY pulled back hard off its highs $SPX whipsawing $CL all over the place No US data on the calendar, so every geopolitical whisper is moving markets. Add Israel/Lebanon missiles and China restricting US tech investment...
Vietnam Pivots Toward China, Abandoning US Swing-State Role
Vietnam was the "swing state" of SE Asia that the US preferred. Until now. On the heels of President To Lam's state visit to Beijing, the winds seem to be shifting. The latest from @CarnegieChina https://t.co/JFXuV6zPnI https://t.co/MAKSuoFyIY
Proposed 123% Rate Could Double US Cost of Indian Modules
The preliminary rate of 123.04% is exceptionally high, effectively doubling the cost of Indian-made modules for U.S. buyers if finalized.
Foreign Private Capital Now Outpaces Central Banks in Treasuries
Yup, Foreign Private Capital Has Overtaken Central Banks in the Treasury Market h/t Apollo/Slok And @Econimica has the breakdown below https://t.co/O8Md1T2160
Europe’s Hormuz Concern Outpaces US Amid Global Oil Market
Hegseth says Europe needs the Strait of Hormuz more than the US does. Problem is, oil is a global market...
Market Overbought, China Leverages Rare Earth, Fed Stuck
New pod out now in your feed with @pboockvar of @onepointbfg 🎙️ 📈 $SPX Historic Overbought Levels 🌏 China's Rare Earth Leverage 🏦 The Fed Is Handcuffed 💸 Earnings Season Reality Check YouTube: https://t.co/yWlMWCAHQN Apple: https://t.co/wIEDo0aYUq Spotify: https://t.co/ohRdssY3kS
Iran-Ready Conflict Likely Escalates, Markets Unaware
There is not going to be a complete cease fire. This is just all babble back and forth. Iran has prepared for this for years and years and it will not end in peace talks. Wouldn't be...
Trump Tariffs Raise Costs; Families Miss Refund Benefits
Even though President Trump’s trade policies have led to higher prices for companies and consumers, many families aren’t in line to benefit directly from the coming tariff refund checks. by @TonyRomm https://t.co/DBAw7u1SUe
Productivity Boom Raises Neutral Rate, Undermining Rate Cuts
Kevin Warsh wants lower rates soon. His reasoning is fundamentally flawed. The productivity boom raises the neutral rate, not lowers it, leaving no room for aggressive cuts. 🟢 Open https://t.co/V7JMWWBgcg
Yields Rise as Market Tests New Fed Chair
The market often tests a new Fed chair... Yields up in 3mo after Fed Chair starts. BofA Hartnett https://t.co/uJHPiLrNsf
BofA Says April Dot Plot Would Appear More Hawkish
BofA: The dot plot would look more hawkish if it were published at the April meeting https://t.co/nN8P0rQug7
Central Banks Ignore Markets, Overshoot Inflation Targets for Years
"Even if markets can look through the impact of the shock, maybe central banks won’t. They have a nasty habit of believing their own hype, and as inflation moves higher ... They have already overshot their targets for 5 years,...
BofA Predicts March PCE
BofA: We expect headline PCE inflation to jump to 3.4% y/y in March on the back of the spike in gas prices. The saving rate would probably fall significantly, to 3.1% https://t.co/dorT1DTMid
BoE Warns Overvalued Assets Could Trigger Global Market Crash
A senior Bank of England official warns that high asset prices didn’t reflect the level of risk in the markets, suggesting that global markets could fall https://t.co/V72095O6hp via @BrendanScott https://t.co/XGQVeYlfWB
Tariff Revenues Slip While Effective Rate Stays Near 9%
BofA: Tariff revenues have been declining since their October peak, with the effective tariff rate reaching 8.7% in February despite the SCOTUS ruling being towards the end of that month https://t.co/lkk5dMwUze
Stay Long Inflation: Buy Commodities, Short Treasuries
In today's Early Look: "Don't Be A Chimp, Stay Long #Quad2 Inflation" In terms of the Signal Strength of our Quads,the #1 Thing To Stay With Is INFLATION Accelerating. How does a Macro Long/Short Book express that top down? A) Long Commodities (CRB...
Massive Market, Super‑spring
My handle/business name was based on the model below Today The size of the market/economy M is extremely large K is super "springy" C is as dampening as I have ever seen in "normal" economic conditions X "bumps" are more impactful than normal...
Central Banks Sing the President’s Tune, Not Independent
If the job interview is "Will you do my bidding?" the answer isn't central bank independence. It's central bank karaoke: the chair just sings the president's tune. https://t.co/YFiILGZPvR
Asian Economies Face Staggered Fertility Shock and Aging
Asian economies are undergoing a “fertility shock”, with aging unfolding at different speeds: Japan and Korea ahead, China and Thailand follow, while India is still young, BofA https://t.co/lHJqcEGcCA
US and Iran Stuck in Tense Limbo, Hormuz Risk
Told @business News Now: both the US and Iran are in purgatory. There’s no war, but there’s nothing close to peace. Tensions are high and the risk of escalation in the Strait of Hormuz is real, with major implications for...
Russia's Central Bank Lowers Rate To
MOSCOW, April 24 (Reuters) - The Russian central bank reduced its key rate by 50 basis points to 14.5% on Friday, as expected by analysts, despite pressure from businesses to cut faster in order to boost the economy, which contracted...
Export Collapse Boosts US/Canada Prices, yet Halts Risk Oversupply
As Persian Gulf and Russian exports collapse, global prices will rise, which should benefit the U.S. and Canada. However, if exports are halted to keep gasoline prices down, then North America would become oversupplied. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/9vsV5HAcmy https://t.co/34b7yklfSr
USD Swap Lines Misunderstood: Liquidity Shakedowns Explained
Two-part compendium from me on why everyone is getting the wrong end of the stick on USD swap lines and how liquidity shakedowns really work with asset-rich sovereigns. First piece here: https://t.co/DkaYPexxOU https://t.co/2wWxKXkaWz
Energy Shock Not Translating Into Higher Wages, BoE Finds
Bank of England surveys suggest the energy shock isn’t fueling wages https://t.co/KafLBZ6mIL via @irinaanghel12 https://t.co/x3ZKa8cs6N
Kazimir Suggests Modest ECB Hike Due to Iran War
Kazimir says a slight ECB rate increase may be necessary on the Iran war https://t.co/E3r6aKNNHQ via @Dan_Hornak https://t.co/G5jKSecgTk
Quantitative Easing Enriches the Wealthy, Harms the Poor
"QE is reverse Robin Hood. It’s policy that steals from the poor, to give to the rich." — Kevin Warsh https://t.co/wcGKkX6SgP
China Bars Unapproved US Tech Investment After Meta Deal
China to Curb US Investment in Tech Companies After Meta Deal Agencies including the National Development and Reform Commission have told several private firms they should reject capital of US origin in funding rounds unless explicitly approved https://t.co/2vTEIkjAgp
SNB Free to Adjust Rates and Intervene, Says Schlegel
Schlegel says a vigilant SNB is unrestricted on interest rates and interventions https://t.co/T29eQBLJeq via @bbenrath https://t.co/d7Ln9mGd5W
Germany's Ifo Survey Signals Fragile Recovery, Contraction Risk
Good Morning from Germany, where the latest Ifo Business Survey just flashed 2Q contraction risk. Ifo Business Climate fell to 84.4 in Apr, lowest since May2020 & below expectations. Ifo Expectations Component dropped to 83.3 as weakness spread across sectors....
Vietnam and China Tighten Ties to Counter US Volatility
Hanoi and Beijing have long treated each other as distant cousins rather than comrades in arms. That might be changing as both sides draw closer to hedge against uncertainty and America’s erratic behavior. A timely Commentary from @khacgiang for @CarnegieChina https://t.co/PHsg5qprOt
Eurozone Inflation at 3% Forces ECB to Hold, Stagflation Returns
Decidedly grim survey data in the Eurozone for April nails the ECB's decision for a hold next week, despite another increase in inflation, to around 3%. Stagflation economics is back; did it ever leave?
EU Warns Tighter Safeguards Could Jeopardize US Trade Deal
The EU warns member states that efforts to strengthen safeguards in the bloc’s trade agreement with the US may cause the deal to unravel https://t.co/tXZKfe4ggD via @europressos @AlbertoNardelli https://t.co/dnkoWL8TO0
UK Retail Sales Rise as Drivers Fill Up
UK retail sales rebound as drivers stock up on motor fuel https://t.co/vmKSFNdn0g via @irinaanghel12 https://t.co/sYif8aJDQB
Indonesia to Import 150 Million Barrels of Russian Crude
JAKARTA, April 24 (Reuters) - Indonesia will import 150 million barrels of crude oil from Russia this year, the country's deputy energy minister Yuliot Tanjung said on Friday.
SNB's Sub‑zero Rate Shift Outweighs Standard Cuts
SNB move below zero is a bigger step than a normal cut, Schlegel tells NZZ https://t.co/ZMyYbIPZxG https://t.co/a1V1z0xvIk
Dim Sum Bond Borrowing Hits Record RMB300bn This Year
FT: "Total borrowing in so-called dim sum bonds — issued outside the mainland, mostly in Hong Kong, and denominated in renminbi — has hit Rmb300bn ($44 bn) so far this year, more than twice the amount at this point in...
China’s Q1 Income Growth Lags Behind 5% GDP Expansion
1/2 Yicai: "Chinese residents’ income growth slowed to 4.9% in nominal terms and 4.0% in real terms in the first quarter, even as the country’s economy expanded by a better-than-expected 5%." This is one percentage point less income growth than last year. https://t.co/MiWs3mdvcf
Iran War's Economic Shock Hits Global Markets
Catch my take at 9:40ET on the economic impact of the Iran War @siriusxm #bizbriefing
Trim Tech, Bet on Energy as Oil Surges
Asia stocks slip as tech cools, oil >$100 & Japan core CPI below BOJ target. Geopolitical strain lifts oil, pressures risk assets. Action: trim tech longs; favor energy/FX hedge. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Oil Futures Hit Record Pessimism Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty
The news out of the Middle East might have seemed less dire lately, but oil futures are now basically as pessimistic as they've ever been. This could be a concern that the current war continues, or it could be concern...