Global Economy Social Media and Updates
Global Economy Social Media and Updates
Global Economy Pulse
EMAIL DIGESTS
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Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
That is one looong blue line. A month ago, Fed fund futures were pricing in the next cut as June. This June. Now it's October '27 https://t.co/HCElEgtrLE
yields - what a week(!) as they appear to be resolving higher after consolidating... it's a global phenomenon... not a U.S. thing, or a Canada thing, or a Europe thing... $TNX $TYX 😜 please don't blame Trump, or the Iran war, or...
The S&P 500 is now down 7.6% from its January peak. Is that a lot? Not at all. This is right in line with the median correction off an all-time high since the March 2009 low. We see a decline of this amount...
Headlines that the US is thinking about taking Kharg island are pushing up Brent (lhs) and causing stocks to tank (rhs). Taking Kharg doesn't reopen the Strait and could turn into a fiasco. Better to embargo Iranian oil and force...
Markets have turned. S&P down 5.4% YTD — all of that loss in the last two weeks. War premium showing up fast. Watch this space. https://t.co/D3wvQr7z9M
Business cycles have a way of repeating themselves, despite many feeling like this time is different. https://t.co/BhO6huMktT
3w into conflict, gas prices on higher trajectory than in 2022 (Ukraine invasion). WTI 1M/6M spread off peak inversion, so are implied vols for WTI. 2YR inflation expectations on similar trajectory as 2022. LT inflation exp not reacting much...
Yup. Market pricing in 2-3 rate hikes for ECB and BoE How many for the Fed?!
When government and private debt are this extreme, only one of these lines can rise. …... not the red one. https://t.co/YjKShRTMiy https://t.co/mOHRjorVpT
Due to the war in Iran and the resulting inflationary effects, the market is now pricing in zero rate cuts from the Fed this year (in contrast to the previously forecast two rate cuts). Moreover, the market is now forecasting a...
Mkts expect a Fed hiking bias, instead of cuts. 10yr Treasury yields up even more today (4.38%) With long-term interest rates rising, the Hormuz shock is getting priced as more of an inflation shock than one that triggers recession (caveat: mkts aren't...
When the Fed cutting cycle started in 2024, 20Y rates quickly moved to 4%. And after 175bp of cuts, the 30Y rates is back up to 5%. The latest wiggle is obviously the Iran effect. But the divergence is arguably 2 years...
Bitcoin is a check and balance on inflation. When spending gets too far out of hand, capital moves to Bitcoin. Competition benefits customers, and this applies even in the market for money. In this way, Bitcoin will help preserve dollar dominance.
Is it reasonable to say that a long-term, structural decline in global oil demand would not necessarily translate into lower prices, and could plausibly turn into significantly higher prices in the future?
US500 ( SPX ) At a crucial daily demand area. We have not seen these levels since late 2025. - Stagflation environment - Elevated OIL - From rate cuts to rate hikes - AI valuation concerns The whole macro narrative has changed within days. I...
Bloomberg on the selloff in the US bond market: “Not since 2023, when the central bank was still lifting rates, has the two-year yield risen so much above the Fed’s rate ceiling. On Friday, five-year yields surpassed 4% for the first...
Putting the fiscal cost of the Iran war in context. $200 billion > $194.9 billion, which means that Trump is planning on spending more on the Iran war than he took in with his tariffs which raised tons of revenue....
For anyone following the GPT policy prescriptions I updated the macro with war, supply shortages and 200B in new spend. Nothing surprising here but I'd note that the pathways were already narrow 3+ months ago. https://t.co/bSw5ZWEnsD
Euro area deficit with China rising again -- this time on higher imports as much as on lower exports 1/ https://t.co/MzIpVJR3sZ
Recession probabilities explained: 35% = I don't really believe it 40% = every economist's baseline number 50% = still don't believe it 60% = 25% 100% = 0% chance
Consensus is shifting, and rightly so: This third week of the war has fueled a shift from a short-term energy disruption to long-term structural damage. With that, the broader fallout—also marked by the non-linear risks associated with tipping points and multiple equilibrium...
This is exactly what James Gutman predicted on the latest episode of @EnergyEmpirePod. EVs are selling out in the top 50 emerging markets given the $250B “Marshall Plan” being rolled out by China. https://t.co/75BxCTbmpS
The numbers are clear: Middle East oil crisis is already 3x WORSE than the UNREALIZED FEAR in 2022 @Rory_Johnston explains: in April 2022 fear was 3 Million Barrel per day (mb/d) shut in for Russian Crude (DIDN'T HAPPEN). In 2026...
Great graphic of the spread of the Asian financial crisis from Bangkok in July 1997 to the rest of South East and East Asia … and Russia. Featured in today's Chartbook Top Links: https://t.co/rb45VTG9a5
Per the WSJ US firms other than Microsoft and Apple paid at least $12 billion in corporate income tax to Ireland last year (Apply and Microsoft haven't reported yet, but both paid ~ $5b to Ireland in 2024 ... so...
CHINA ALREADY GOT ITS FIRST WIN FROM THE WAR IN IRAN In today's newsletter, I wrote about how the long term trend of countries reducing their oil imports by substituting them with Chinese tech is already accelerating since the start of...
In this regime, even “safe” carries beta: welcome to the era of the risk-full rate https://t.co/8SEao6GWwp
Lotta spilled milk around what central banks should do in the face of this oil shock. But the fact is what they are mandated to do is what matters.
Assuming the USS Boxer is heading to the Middle East, and considering that she only left San Diego two days ago, she won't be near the Persian Gulf until mid-April. If the reinforcements are intended to reopen the Strait of...
Lower prices, lower yields, lower oil. Either that, or a new war in the Middle East. https://t.co/mnkr6zwlk9
Oh, oh. China. Rare earth exports increase. Fall to US. And the supply chains? The US-China trade deal? And the delayed Trump-Xi meeting?
I'm a big advocate for stabilization policies generally, but.... The more you try to play games to stave off fundamental price adjustments altogether, the nastier they can get as time goes by. Could end up adding more volatility than what you've...
What does it all mean? Why are yields and Bitcoin higher while risk assets are down and the dollar is bid? I take you back to the correlation matrix (below). Is it all just technical or is there a larger...
If we are now about to enter a Central Bank rate rising period, it's worth considering we are in a very different place to the last rate rising period. Back a few years ago interest rates were artificially low and...
inflation shows up on your screen much quicker than financial stability tremors and layoffs. hawk talk out of the gate is easy; hawk walk when UnE is up a percentage point and rising, not so much
Now powell and Fed will be forced to do an emergency rate cut and be late as high oil prices start slowing down economy into recession.
It'll be interesting to see how this looks over the next week, as we get more post-FOMC Fedspeak. But my proprietary measure of FOMC hawkishness climbed even further after Powell's press conference. https://t.co/lNilk5T2yz
Global bond yields continue to climb: the UK 10-year has touched 5%, while the German Bund has crossed 3% and the US stands at 4.36%. Compounding the warning signs for the global economy, this comes amid an ongoing bear flattening...
This week we unpack just how trapped central banks are, especially single mandate central banks who are forced to hike into this shock. Shit is not great yo
The prediction markets are pushing out expectations of a US-Iran #ceasefire further and further... It's not unrelated that expectations of a #recession are creeping up at the same time... https://t.co/oFshabOLCJ
The US National Debt has now increased by $2.8 trillion since the Debt Ceiling was raised last July. The Federal Government continues to borrow from our future to spend money like drunken sailors today. Next stop: $40 trillion... https://t.co/rtXuDORPwa
Irish economy in better position than European peers on Iran war risk, Makhlouf says https://t.co/lomrlc1AAE via @livfletcher_ https://t.co/T1sVPBtbzJ
If Hormuz stays closed another 3-4 weeks, it all begins to crumble...into an already-teetering global sovereign debt problem & consumer credit problem. Based on what I'm hearing, it is highly likely Hormuz will remain closed for at least another 3-4 weeks. Let's...
Iranian oil has been sanctioned for many years. The 140 million barrels he is referring to are part of the "dark fleet" that has been shipping Iranian oil to Asia (mainly China) for years. Iran gets money for oil, and...
🚨 THE MARKET IS ONE ISLAND AWAY FROM RELIEF AND CHAOS US is quietly considering lifting Iran sanctions but behind the scenes? There's talk of something far more aggressive. And it all comes down to one tiny island in the Persian Gulf...
Price is set on the margin. One underappreciated problem n today's global fixed income markets is that the biggest participants (bank, insco, pension) are indifferent among G10 sovereigns. Local problems relatively small market like UK Gilts can then force global...
Wars can move markets in the short run, as they are today. But over the long run, stock returns are driven by economic growth and corporate earnings. Since 1941 the world has seen almost constant conflict. And yet, $1 in the S&P 500...
It's not just a blip. Increasingly oil futures markets are suggesting that the Iran war is going to have (or has already had) effects that will last for years. https://t.co/j23M3zH7AL
The reason the Dollar isn't stronger is because markets price a much more hawkish policy shift by central banks in the G10 compared to the Fed. That's moving rate differentials against the Dollar and tempering what otherwise would be an...
Waller having his own personal Trichet moment: "oil can bleed through to core inflation at some point"
