Yuan Emerges as Safe Haven Amid Dollar Uncertainty
“Xi Jinping…said the country must have a ‘powerful’ currency. The yuan is still far from that. But it is becoming something else: a source of comfort for countries and firms disconcerted by America’s haphazard stewardship of the truly powerful dollar.” https://t.co/cZJuG30DSV
Closing Hormuz Costs Billions, Not Just Pennies
“Too expensive. I’m a very cost-conscious person” Every day Hormuz remains closed the world loses 13 million barrels of oil, current market price ~$1.35 billion.
Global Growth Stalls; France Flatlines at 0.5%
Global growth is very weak. The yellow column shows what growth in 2026 would be if GDP is flat after Q4 '25. This is what people call "carryover." For France, that's 0.5% versus my forecast of 0.7% in gray. France...
Roundhill Launches First Non‑political Recession Prediction ETFs
Just saw Roundhill filed for more prediction market ETFs to track Recession Yes and Recession No. These first non-political ones. I’m sure we will see more. https://t.co/aN2OoT46Yr
Iran Holds the Cards on Hormuz Strait
My take on @RT_com on who will ultimately control the Strait of Hormuz: "Either you run the show, or the show runs you. And in the case of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran will be running the show." IRAN = HOLDS THE...
Canada’s USMCA Renegotiations Challenging Regardless of Trump
USMCA renegotiations were going to be tricky for Canada, even if there had been no Trump 2.0. My take, with the great @IanRAusten https://t.co/gThypf118R
BoE's Rapid Bond Unwind Fuels UK's Higher Yields
The UK isn't the fiscal basket case it's made out to be. During the LDI crisis in 2022, the Bank of England kicked asset managers to the curb. It's also unwound its gov't bond holdings way faster than other central...
State‑directed Capital Hampers Growth by Rewarding Politics over Efficiency
The textbook negative take is that over time state directed capital lowers potential growth by allocating capital on the basis of political connections rather than efficiency. Any one off can look successful, it’s the impact over years that important.
Oil Prices Already Reflect War Shortfalls, Further Rises Unlikely
I covered 3 topics on this morning's live stream: (i) the 60% rise from before the war means oil already prices the physical shortfalls unfolding now, so prices shouldn't rise much further; (ii) global supply chain disruptions; (iii) rising global...
Macron Calls EU Debt Rollover Essential, Not Optional
Macron says it would be ‘silly’ not to roll over EU Covid-era debt https://t.co/7Nctd2XiKo via @Newsbaum @NikasSotiris https://t.co/62p9hqman4
IMF: UK and Germany Hardest Hit by Energy Crisis
The UK and Germany are the two countries in the developed world whose economic growth prospects have been most hurt by the ongoing energy crisis, according to the IMF. This is totally unsurprising given that the UK has shut down its...
Hormuz Delay Persists; Stocks Hit Record Highs as Forecasted
Strait of Hormuz likely will not fully reopen for months, Baker Hughes executive says @seekingalpha and stocks are at record highs, just as everyone predicted https://t.co/byIcXkNS7j
Petrodollar Debate Ignoring Pre‑Crisis Global Surplus Figures
There is something about the petrodollar debate that seems to make its participant believe it can be conducted in the absence of solid numbers -- A reminder, prior to the crisis in the Strait, the global surplus as in Asia (manufacturing...
Rate Hikes Hit Federal Debt, Not Corporate Borrowing
This is partially a symptom of fiscal dominance. Rate hikes pushed up federal interest expense rather than corporate interest expense.
US Work Hours Fell as Benefits Grew, Not Wages
US hours per person declined after 2000 in large part due to the rise in benefits available to non-employed eg health-related benefits. In non-US countries a rise in labour supply can generally be accounted for by higher wages, lower fixed...
US Stocks Outshine Europe on Fundamentals and Technicals
Regarding these latest charts from the Financial Times: The question isn't whether US equity markets are better positioned than Europe to weather the impact of the war. Between superior fundamentals and stronger technicals, the US clearly holds the edge—valuation gaps notwithstanding. The...
Central Bank Independence Ensures Commitment to Price Stability
Central bank independence refers to the absence of political influence on monetary policymaking. It is widely accepted that independence acts as a commitment device to achieve price stability. https://t.co/Gp9sjyM0Pv
Hormuz Crisis Unfolds: Market Calm, Leaders Navigate Shock
🎙️ NEW PODCAST 🎧 On the latest episode of Oil Ground Up, I spoke with @Amena__Bakr about the latest tracking of the Hormuz crisis, the shockingly sanguine market reaction thus far, and how the political and industry leadership across the region...
Tariffs and War Drag US Consumer Sentiment to Record Low
The University of Michigan's consumer-sentiment index dropped to an all-time low. TRUMP'S TARIFFS & WAR MADNESS = BAD NEWS FOR THE US ECONOMY. https://t.co/k0nUUAnksC
Iran War Enters Week Nine, Strait of Hormuz Closed
Today marks the start of the 9th week of the Iran War and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. https://t.co/SlkCd7pW0e
Japan's Debt Trap Leaves Yen as Sole Release Valve
Japan is trapped. ~230% debt/GDP. BOJ owns 50%+ of the JGB market. Deeply negative real rates. The Yen is weakening despite rising yields because the market knows they can't meaningfully hike without triggering a fiscal crisis. The currency is the...
Oil Inventories Near Record Lows Despite Potential Hormuz Reopening
The world’s oil buffers are rapidly being depleted, with crude inventories poised to reach the lowest levels on record even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens in full by the end of this month: GS’s Daan Struyven & team https://t.co/Z3i0GtxRlv
China Weaponized Rare Earths Against Japan in 2010
Will set aside the debate over the merits of Lighthizer's trade war with China in 2018 China clearly weaponized rare earths against Japan in 2010. This Chinese move wasn't simple a response to the 301 1/2
MSCI ACWI Ends Year Positive 28 of 38 Times
Despite intra-year volatility, the MSCI $ACWI Index had positive year-end total returns 28 out of the last 38 years since 1988. Standard Chartered https://t.co/Gs34aTnb4j
Senate Banking Committee Schedules Warsh Fed Chair Vote
The Senate Banking Committee has set a committee vote for Kevin Warsh’s Fed chair nomination on Wednesday https://t.co/l3pMHESk0G
IMF Lifts 2026 Growth Forecast Amid Hormuz Worries
If Hormuz blockade continues, all would change. But perspective matters. See the IMF global economic growth forecast: Published in Apr 2025: 3.0% (for 2026) Published in Apr 2026: 3.1% (for 2026) Current IMF 2026 forecast is **higher** than its estimate published a year...
India Holds $600bn, Should Sell Dollars, Not Seek Swap
India doesn't need a swap line. It has 600bn$ nearly, to sell, if it wants and sadly it doesn't want to. Cad is 50bn to 75bn a year. There is no exit tax. 20% above 10L a year is only...
Swap Lines Are Loans, Not Gifts, Fueling Dollar Demand
For those new to swap lines due to recent headlines, swap lines are not USD “gifts”, they are USD “loans”. The difference? Loans need to be paid back. And as such create dollar demand. Swap lines...
Mexico-Japan Oil Trade Remains Sporadic, Future Uncertain
🇯🇵🇲🇽 The last oil shipment from Mexico to Japan was in October 2023, and the previous one was in April 2022. Will we see steady shipments going forward?
May 2026: Markets in Transition, No Central Bank Meetings
May 2026 Monthly: The global capital markets will enter May with a sense of transition rather than resolution. Neither the Federal Reserve, nor the European Central Bank or the Bank of Japan meet in the month ahead. The market is...
US Shock 2.0: Iran War Drives Market Disruption
May Monthly drops. Much talk about China 2.0 shock, but the main disruptive force is not emanating from Beijing now. US shock 1.0 were the tariffs and US shock 2.0 is the war on Iran. May is...
Gilts and the Pound Shield Britain From Fiscal Chaos
Gilts, and possibly GBP, ultimately stand between Britain and leftwing fiscal recklessness. Both will wake up, at some point, but as long as inflation is high and nominal GDP is purring, the government can get away with a lot.
Sanctions Block Russian LNG, Not Crude, Through Red Sea
Explain this: The green arrows in the Red Sea show tankers carrying Russian crude oil. The second image shows the same area with no arrows at all — indicating zero LNG carriers passing through. The third image shows...
Iran's Real Power: Strait of Hormuz Outweighs Nukes
“… The Strait of Hormuz, geography’s strategic gift to Iran, is now a more potent source of influence for Tehran than its nuclear program, ballistic missiles or proxies have ever been…” https://t.co/6yrHVfIioz
Dad Influencers Can Boost Growth, Offset Child Penalty
Macro: Low female employment & rejected equal parental leave drag growth. Key: dad influencers shift norms. Risk: policy inertia preserves child penalty. Trade: overweight care stocks. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Germany's Q2 Growth Slips Toward Contraction, DB Cuts Forecast
Good Morning from Germany, where the economy may slip back into contraction in Q2. The latest leading indicators point that way. Deutsche Bank now expects GDP to fall by 0.2% in Q2 and has cut its full-year growth forecast in...
Libya's Oil Boom and Currency Surge Amid US‑Israeli Conflict
Libya’s oil production JUMPED from roughly 400 thousand barrels a day in March to 1.43 million barrels a day in April. In the same time frame, the Libyan dinar has APPRECIATED by over 17% vs. the USD. LIBYA = BIG WINNERS OF...
Singapore’s Fuel Hub Doubles Russian Oil Imports Amid War
Singapore, the world’s biggest ship refueling port, TURNS TO RUSSIA FOR OIL. Oil imports from Russia have DOUBLED since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran. RUSSIA = BIG WINNER. https://t.co/oBUnq9FGNS
Swap Profit for Capacity: US‑China Equilibrium Emerges
I should just pin this somewhere: America has abundant profitability yet scarce capacity China has abundant capacity yet scarce profitability You address this and you naturally get a new equilibrium without having to label it rebalancing or whatever term you prefer.
China’s Commodity Stockpiles, Not Strategy, Cushioned Iran War Impact
1/5 It's true that China was able to withstand the effects of the Iran war better than many other countries because it had stockpiled commodities. But it is a little silly, perhaps even a little orientalist, to say that it did...
US Weaponizes Gas Abroad, Fuels Climate Crisis, Needs Clean Energy
America is basically using gas as a weapon of war against Asia and Europe: their violent actions in the Middle East have pushed up the price elsewhere but *not* in the US. Fossil gas causes climate change AND it's an...
Japanese Success Stemmed From Subsidies, Not Management Style
Tordior is right. In the 1980s, the US and Europe encouraged Japanese investment because they thought it would bring the "Japanese" management style that explained Japan's manufacturing success. But Japanese manufacturers ended up being no more successful than local ones once...
Questioning Reactions to Trump's Impact on Global Economy
Well, that’s off the table. How do they feel about Trump taking down the global economy?
Oil Bans Won’t Force Iran’s Surrender, Hormuz Remains Vulnerable
Cutting Iran’s oil exports—even to zero—doesn’t guarantee capitulation, writes @RKelanic Countries fight through far worse. Ukraine lost 30% of GDP—and kept going. Iran doesn’t need prosperity to disrupt Hormuz. #Geopolitics #OilMarkets #Iran #EnergyCrisis #Strategy
IMF Acknowledges Excessive Imbalances, Hinting at Katz Influence
Even the IMF formally recognizes (although everyone I know in the IMF has long understood this) that "excessive" imbalances are a problem. Is Dan Katz's influence starting to be felt?
2025: China's Surplus Increasingly Recycled Through State Banks
100% wrong substantively. The key change in 2025 is that a rising share of China's surplus is being recycled through the state banks. They aren't the PBOC but they aren't exactly private either 1/2 https://t.co/VGghVlVzkz
Consider All Scenarios: Trump Impeachment Could Shake Markets
I've learned to never say never in the markets and entertain all scenarios. What would a Trump impeachment do to the markets?
Iran Conflict May Trigger Oil Crisis, Global Collapse by May
Amid the Iran war, a major warning about the deepening oil crisis, the global economy could collapse by May https://t.co/kpHXhifaXs
US May Weaponize Dollar Swap Lines Amid Tensions
🧵Some other important swap line factoids: 1/ Robert McCauley has been warning about the potential weaponisation of dollar swap lines for quite a while. In this view, the US is likely to apply statecrafty terms and conditions on dollar...
Venezuela Still Holds World's Highest Inflation at 523%
#VNZWatch🇻🇪: Today, I measure Venezuela's inflation AS THE WORLD'S HIGHEST at a CRUSHING 523.5%/yr. That's down from a peak of 828.6%/yr on February 4th. YOU WON’T FIND THIS IMPORTANT STORY IN THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA. https://t.co/gLJoGHJDGp