BRICS' Minimal Link to Iran and Hormuz Questioned
What does BRICS have to do with Iran and Hormuz except super tangentially @BStransl8tr ?
Xi Prioritizes Blockade Issue at Trump Summit
if blockade is still in place, don’t see how it’s not issue number one for xi in his summit with trump.
U.S.-Israeli Conflict Fuels Growing Asian Oil Desperation
Thanks to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, Asia is desperate for oil. AND THEY ARE GOING TO BECOME MORE DESPERATE. https://t.co/28Pmq8UCyZ
S&P 500 Climbs Despite Longest Government Shutdown
Does a government shutdown negatively impact the stock market? No. The S&P 500 has gained an average of 0.4% during prior shutdowns and is up 4.8% during the current shutdown which is the longest in history at 70 days and counting. $SPX https://t.co/zrFBbspSbR
EU Leadership Juggling Simultaneous Conflicts with US, Russia, China
The non-serious EU leadership is in conflicts with the USA, Russia, China, and itself; concurrently.
Hormuz: Single Chokepoint Threatening Global Supply Chains
Hormuz isn’t just an oil story. It’s a system story. Energy → food → industry → finance → daily life One chokepoint. Everything downstream. H/T to @ctindale for his helpful charts & posts #Hormuz #EnergyCrisis #SupplyChains #FoodSecurity #Geopolitics #Commodities https://t.co/vl2cMS8fQq
Blockade Won’t Push Oil Past $150, Here’s Why
I did a live stream yesterday covering the ins and outs of the blockade and closure of the Strait. Single biggest question - as long as the blockade lasts - is how high oil prices go from here. I go...
Kevin Warsh Poised to Become 17th Fed Chair
Kevin Warsh is now on track to become the 17th chair of the Federal Reserve when Jay Powell's term concludes on May 15. https://t.co/mPaGC9If1n
Iran Refuses to Relinquish Strait of Hormuz Control
I am deeply shocked to learn that Iran has no intention of returning control of the Strait of Hormuz https://t.co/xQ2ZBHZVWi
China Shifts From Goods to Knowledge-Intensive Service Exports
FT op-ed: “No nation in the world exports as much merchandise as China. But having conquered global trade in goods, it is now rapidly moving up the international ranks as a leading exporter of knowledge-intensive services.” https://t.co/1hEm7NN3Bm
USD Swap Lines Weaponized: Past Freeze Boosted CIPS, Gold
RE: “Weaponizing USD swap lines” - last time the USD system rails were weaponized (2022 Russia FX reserves frozen), CIPS payments more than doubled in 2 years, and gold rose 3x in 4 years. Let’s watch. https://t.co/ydeBLxbx6r
Fed Expands QE Despite Record Markets and Persistent Inflation
The stock market is at an all-time high. Credit spreads are near all-time lows. And inflation has been above the Fed's target level for 61 consecutive months, averaging 4% per year since 2019. So why is the Fed expanding its balance sheet (QE)? Video:...
1-Year Inflation Swap Peaks; Stocks Hit All-Time Highs
The 1-year inflation swap is now at the highest level since last September Stocks all-time highs. @augurinfinity https://t.co/HrFvA54Sd7
Global Demand, Not US, Drives China's Export Surge
“Chinese exports are finding genuine new markets, not just new routes to America…Clearly the rest of the world wanted more Chinese items, too. American demand cannot explain away the bulk of China’s export boom over the past year.” https://t.co/HIZ20v7gcn
Eurozone GDP Steadies at 0.2%, Spain Leads Growth
Initial GDP readings due on Thursday are expected to reveal growth holding steady at 0.2% in the euro zone, with expansion in every large country, but led as usual by Spain https://t.co/856YLrOZ6o via @CraigStirling https://t.co/gm7VxRVbui
US Leverage Grows as Europe Faces Defense, Energy Reset
The longer the Strait of Hormuz is closed, the more negotiation leverage the US has over the future of NATO and European energy supply chains. The US could ironically be the winner (even in a war-losing scenario) in the future, simply...
Oil Won’t Hit $150–200; US Iran Blockade Proving Effective
Here's my discussion with @paulkrugman from March 19 where I argued oil prices won't go to $150 or $200 and recommended the US blockade Iran. It's as relevant to global oil markets today as it was back then. The blockade...
Brent Surges 60%, Fuel Shortages Hit Global Markets
This week will bring a drumbeat of physical shortage stories. Here's the deal. Brent is up 60% from before the war. That's more than 3x the rise after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The SoH is 3x Russia's oil exports to...
America Isn't the New Edwardian Britain, Reject 1914 Analogies
Hard-working hegemon? Why 21st-century America is not like Edwardian Britain. Thanks to the Hobsonian vision of @michaelxpettis and @M_C_Klein and the pervasiveness of the Thucydides trap argument we are haunted right now by analogies to the per 1914 moment. https://t.co/1lYqmbDzDY
Dollar's Surge Temporary; Peace Deal Could Cut 3%
The Dollar has risen sharply due to safe haven inflows, but as soon as we get a peace agreement, those flows will reverse. My best guess is that the Dollar will fall immediately by 3 percent on such an agreement....
Officially Open Strait, Yet Tankers Remain Stuck?
🔷If both Iran and the US officially announce the Strait of Hormuz is open, will the stranded tankers actually cross? 🔷Exactly. 🔷I rest my case.
Extreme Weather Fuels New Wave of Climate‑Driven Inflation
From food to insurance, prices are rising because of extreme weather, turning climate change into a new and growing source of inflation. Read how economists and central bankers are getting better at linking temperatures to price increases here: https://t.co/CUAF4152SD 🎨: Bryson Lee...
Hormuz Closure Through 2026 Triggers Inflation Surge
Baker Hughes warns Hormuz to stay shut thru all of 2026 That means the global economy grinds to a halt Tighter supply → higher inflation → no rate cuts "You get massive inflation, you just get really real, real inflation spike," says financial...
Trump’s AI Chip Reversal Sets $50B China Trap
America just broke every rule of international trade: In 2022, NVIDIA was locked out of China's booming AI market. Yesterday, Trump lifted the ban on one BRILLIANT condition. When AMD saw the profits? They jumped in too. Here's the $50B trap Trump just set...
Starmer Credibility Dip Fuels Gilt Short‑sell Recommendation
Starmer faces credibility hit after Mandelson appointment; civil service strained, governance risk ahead of local elections may lift GBP and gilt volatility. Trading insight: sell short gilts. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Iran Conflict Disrupts Global Food Supply Chains
How the Iran war is shaking up food supply chains https://t.co/KEOnyiHmdC via @AggieDeSousa @ElThorn22 @petrkozlov https://t.co/oFMf3yW1aI
Downgrade Exposes Weaknesses in China’s Credit Ratings
Caixin: "A sudden downgrade of a state-backed financing vehicle in eastern China is exposing weaknesses in the country’s credit rating industry, raising concerns over hidden risks in the local government debt market." https://t.co/HjgmNQTIdy
China's Q1 2026 Fiscal Spending
Xinhua: Central government fiscal expenditure rose 4.9% in the first quarter of 2026 while fiscal revenue was up 2.7%. Local government expenditure increased 2.3% while revenue rose 2.1%. Tax revenue was up 2.2%, while non-tax revenue rose 2.9%. https://t.co/dqrunbaUK9
Rupee Slides 4.5% YTD, Hits All‑Time Lows
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: The rupee has depreciated ~4.5% this year. Despite the RBI’s ongoing intervention, the rupee continues to visit ALL-TIME LOWS. Remember what Oscar Wilde wrote: “The chapter on the Fall of the Rupee you may omit. It is somewhat too sensational.”...
Uncertainty, Not Sticky Wages, Drives Coordination Failure
Very good essay by Brad Delong: "It loses the essential Keynesian insight that the problem is not that wages are sticky or that the economy has moved to a bad equilibrium but that in a world of genuine uncertainty, coordinating...
China Could Replicate Eurodollar Model for Global CNY
1/8 Brendan Greeley on the development of the eurodollar. If Beijing truly wants CNY to be more widely used in international finance, the eurodollar market provides one potentially useful model to show how that might happen. https://t.co/OoBlDvaenX
China Eyes Power of Siberia 2 Amid US Hormuz Threat
🔥🔥🔥Here, form September 11, 2025: "If you look at it from a Chinese point of view, it's not Iran who is going to close the Hormuz Strait. It's the US who is going to close Hormuz Strait, and therefore they...
Current Oil Supply Loss 99× Iranian Revolution Shock
Now look at the RATE of supply loss @SheDrills The rate of global supply loss today is 99x greater than during the Iranian Revolution oil shock https://t.co/ncx5kgaf83
Who Benefits From Iraq’s Economic Collapse? Iran’s Motives?
I'm genuinely looking for answers. Who has an actual interest in the collapse of Iraq’s economy? And why would Iran want that to happen?
Permanent 1 Billion‑Barrel Oil Loss Redefines Market
What's happening with oil supply is way outside of any historical precedent, says @ericnuttall Yet analysts, economists & bankers treat it like a price problem that will soon be forgotten 1 billion barrels are gone—permanently. You don’t “snap back” from that. #OilMarkets #EnergyCrisis...
Trump’s Iran Move Forces Three Risky, No‑win Paths
Trump canceled talks with Iran That leaves three paths • escalate, • accept a weaker deal, or • drag it out with a blockade that keeps hurting the global economy. None offers a clean win. World class chess moves by Trump. https://t.co/qNzkG2bskW #Geopolitics #Iran #OilMarkets...
US Blockade Cripples Iran’s Oil Flow and Economy
How Effective is the US Blockade Against Iran? 1⃣Intercepting Foreign Tankers 2⃣The Storage Crisis: Iran’s Oil Well Pressure 3⃣The Blockade Biting Hard 4⃣Kettled & Drifting: Tankers Under Surveillance 5⃣The Impact on the Iranian Economy https://t.co/1bPngdBnH4
Israel Breaches Ceasefire, Orders Heavy Strikes on Hezbollah
Earlier today, Netanyahu said, “I instructed the IDF ... to vigorously attack Hezbollah targets in Lebanon," At least 6 Lebanese were killed by Israeli strikes in the last 24 hours. ISRAEL = BREAKS CEASEFIRE, AGAIN. https://t.co/07jTME8EVT
Trump Admits No Plan for Iran Ceasefire
When Trump was asked about extending the ceasefire with Iran, he said, "I haven't even thought about it." TRUMP = NO PLAN. I DON’T THINK HE KNOWS WHAT THE WORD “PLAN” MEANS. https://t.co/BUCh3ZLOmP
Trump‑Xi Alliance Could Form G2, Isolating Russia
What if the Trump-Xi meeting develops a G2? That leaves Russia clearly on the outside and resets world and trade supply chain order? https://t.co/k8OoW1r9Fm
Trump Pushes China Into Sanctions Ahead of Summit
Target Isn’t Just Iran - Trump Wants China To Submit Too https://t.co/QS77FdK6Yx Hengli, a private oil refinery in China, in US crosshairs… sanctions of size right before the Xi-Trump Trade Summit meetings mid-May. Not subtle.
Syria Drops From 3rd to 33rd in Misery Ranking
In Hanke’s 2025 Annual Misery Index, Syria ranks as the world’s 33rd MOST MISERABLE COUNTRY. In 2024, Syria was the 3rd most miserable country. Syria’s improvement largely resulted from a dramatic fall in inflation. https://t.co/pLhoz6YUzZ
Chinese State Banks Boost Dollar Holdings, Fuel US Asset Demand
Gonna keep repeating this until it registers -- The PBOC may or may not be reducing its real Treasury holdings; it could just be moving out of US custodians But the state banks are clearly adding to their dollar portfolios, and thus...
Managed Trade Is All Washington Can Expect From China
Jamieson Greer, the US trade representative, said managed trade was the best Washington could hope for given that Chinese leaders were “not going to put their hand on Mao’s Little Red Book and swear that, ‘We’re not going to be...
Poland's Inflation Overshoot Linked to Excess Money Supply
Poland’s inflation is at 3.0%/yr in March. That’s ABOVE its 2.5% target. PL’s money supply (M3) is growing at 11.5%/yr, ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 8.8%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its inflation target of 2.5%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY = A...
U.S. Neglect Risks Ceding Global Leadership to China
.@FareedZakaria in WaPo: “If the U.S. continues to squander its global influence, one day Beijing might well decide that, after all, it does want to take on the mantle of the world’s leading power. And at that point, it will...
Powell in Spotlight Amid Central Bank, Tech, Data Frenzy
The busiest week of the year: Five major central banks meet, five mega-cap tech earnings, plus GDP and inflation data. All eyes on Powell Wednesday. 🟢 Open https://t.co/cLDEx6IMRe
Chinese Commodity Stockpiles Offer Surplus Investment Alternative
Great perspective on massive Chinese commodity stockpiles. Not necessarily strategic thinking but somewhere to invest one’s surpluses (other than non performing BRI investments).
Burkina Faso Surges to 9th Happiest Nation in 2025
Surprisingly, in Hanke’s 2025 Annual Misery Index, Burkina Faso ranks as the 9th HAPPIEST COUNTRY IN THE WORLD. BFA witnessed a stunning improvement from the 62nd happiest in 2024 to 9th out of 178 countries. Low inflation, lending rates, and low unemployment...
Treasury Swaps Shield GCC, Preventing UST Yield Spike
An important point of view (on Treasury-supplied USD swaps for GCC countries) comes from our very own, @GraphCall: https://t.co/RHN9TFGR1f This exchange of currency - without selling held collateral - avoids a GCC-forced dump of UST to get liquidity while oil revenue sales...