Global Economy Social Media and Updates
Global Economy Social Media and Updates
Global Economy Pulse
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
"Fertilizer Shock Escalates as New Supply Risks Emerge" https://t.co/lgfrgMYRFg "almost half of the world’s supply of sulfur—which is turned into sulfuric acid for the processing of phosphate fertilizer—comes from countries in the Middle East" And US tariffs are making things worse:
Gold will bounce hard when fed Does emergency rate cut next week or two and all margin accounts stopped out. https://t.co/l3tZYexfCr
Senior BIS economist @HyunSongShin has been named by South Korea’s president to run the Bank of Korea https://t.co/NVLP6R3Dox
Short-term rates (black) are rising as markets settle in for a long war. That pushes up long-term yields, a problem for any high-debt country out there. The last time we saw this in 2022, Italy and Spain needed ECB bailouts...
Markets are useful for the same reason polls are useful: not because they’re flawless, but because they aggregate lots of views. The difference is investors back their opinions with cash. Stocks aren’t GDP, but they do reveal what people expect...
Markets have been the ultimate constraint on Trump and they're starting to look very iffy, especially where the US bond market (bottom left) and private credit (bottom right) are concerned. If the US escalates the war with Iran, markets will...
This WSJ chart comparing the decline in US and international stock markets reflects the underlying economic reality: While the global economy is reeling from the Middle East War, the US is relatively better positioned. This is especially true for energy where the...
Washington Is Flying Blind on China Americans talk incessantly about the need to compete with their country’s greatest rival and how to do it. Yet many U.S. policymakers have never been to China. Impacts quality of the debate clearly... https://t.co/ghNp4u7uqt
Light on US data next week but PMIs are key. These are the events to watch 👇 🇺🇸 US Jobless Claims & UMich Revisions 🇪🇺 EU - PMIs and GE IFO 🇬🇧 GBP -PMIs -Retail Sales -CPI 🇦🇺 AU -PMIs -CPI 🇯🇵 JP -CPI -BoJ Minutes
Lots of unusual stuff going on in markets right now. A war that’s tough to price, a big vol premium with VIX still in the 20s, and an oil shock putting the Fed in a tough spot. @CultishCreative and I break it...
The New Weapons of Global Power Are Oil, Rare Earths and Microchips This is a classic WSJ story, very well executed concept, good insights. Good read. https://t.co/OLjtrroo6Y
The odds of a rate cut in 2026 have fallen to 14.5%. Just 3 weeks ago, they were nearly 100%. https://t.co/uMCjhmatJN
A recent piece by Enrico Fardella and me on European trade pressures, translated into Spanish by Agenda Publica https://t.co/5AEY665Tjb
TEL AVIV/JERUSALEM/WASHINGTON, March 22 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump and Iran threatened to escalate their war by attacking energy facilities in the Gulf, a potential widening of hostilities which could deepen a regional crisis and add to concerns in...
Fascinating how the surge in interest rates is driving these decisions. The US will have to address this. It’s the only way it can realistically afford a war in the first place. Inflation will be unleashed. Rates will be capped. Time to step into gold,...
The last LNG tankers from the Gulf arrive in the next 10 days. After that, many countries face a sharp drop in supply. Qatar's Ras Laffan — 20% of global LNG — could be offline for 3-5 years. Fossil fuel...
This "bet" completely ignores the negative shock to economic growth. If central banks raise rates into this, they will cause a recession. Cc @BenRamanauskas
The ECB is ready to respond swiftly to signs that inflation expectations are surpassing 2% because of the Iran war, Joachim Nagel says https://t.co/rFFN40ION8 https://t.co/Eb51dA3MrT
AI macro: capex adds ~0.4pp to US GDP; supply-chain winners: Taiwan, Korea, Mexico. US leads models; China scales manufacture. Risks: skills gap, geopolitics. Trade: buy Taiwan semiconductors. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Aside the relaxation of US sanctions on Iranian oil, for Tehran the big win is the fact that >20 days into the war, it’s still exporting oil via Hormuz. At ~1.5m b/d (and assuming $85 a barrel) that’s a ~$2.5...
1/4 Bloomberg: "Chinese Premier Li Qiang has responded to growing calls from trading partners to address a rising trade surplus, with China’s exports continuing to surge in the first two months of the year." https://t.co/EMOs1RWaAX
What are you doing as an investor during this market pullback from the Iran war?
If Iran—facing threats from President Trump—now announces that the Strait of Hormuz is OPEN, would that immediately end the crisis and get ships moving through it again? Why or why not?
What if the Houthis enter the war, asks @citrinowicz ? A disruption at Bab el-Mandeb, on top of Hormuz, would turn global economic shock into panic #RedSea #Houthis #Hormuz #OilMarkets #SupplyShock #EnergySecurity #Trade #Geopolitics
Inequality shock is the next risk from the Iran crisis Shortages give dominant firms cover to raise prices, protect margins, and push the pain onto everyone else Hormuz could become not just an energy shock, but an inequality shock https://t.co/J5Rdjxc0KI #Inequality #Inflation #Hormuz #EnergyCrisis...
These comments by former @CENTCOM commander General Votel highlights a disconnect between the military and economic strategy regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Attacks on shipping and the Strait were expected. When it comes to escorts, General Votel acknowledged that it can...
TACO is not an option for Trump, writes @biancoresearch He can't leave Iran in control of Hormuz Crude won’t calm down and markets won’t recover. #IranWar #Hormuz #OilMarkets #EnergyCrisis #Trump #Geopolitics #Macro #MiddleEast
#PakWatch🇵🇰: Pakistan's inflation is 7.0%/yr. Pak's money supply (M3) is growing at 15.1%/yr. That’s above Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 11.5%/yr-13.5%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting Pakistan's inflation target of 5%/yr-7%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/x28UBeLyKl
While the US and Israel escalate, Modi plays it cool. INDIA'S STRATEGIC AUTONOMY = A WINNING HAND. https://t.co/T87Vj30GN9
2-Year, 3-Year Treasury Yields Spike, Flip to Rate Hike. Yield Curve Uninverts. Government Sold $606 Billion of Treasury Securities this Week as the Borrowing Must Go On. Whiff of turmoil in the bond market as inflation fears moved to the front...
The stupid sonofabitch wanted to make it the 1950s again and we’re ending up in the 1970s: - Oil shocks crushing Americans at the pump, - Inflation eating Americans’ paychecks, - American solders sent to fight pointless wars with no plan. https://t.co/7iRuS28mfB
This, from Bloomberg, illustrates how the Middle East War threatens a widening set of global supply chains. (On Monday, the FT is scheduled to post my column on a separate global risk that has yet to receive sufficient attention: the likely...
Everyone is watching oil in dollars. Almost nobody is watching oil in yen. That's where the real risk is. If Japan panics, the carry trade unwinds again — and this time it won't be a two-day event. I laid it all out on CNBC...
Iran’s attacks on Qatar’s LNG export plant could be one of the biggest tailwinds yet to the fast-growing US LNG sector 🇺🇸 🚢 🇹🇼 Taiwan said it plans to buy more LNG from the US from June 🇧🇩 Bangladesh is exploring...
TRUMP GIVES IRAN 48 HOURS TO OPEN STRAIT OF HORMUZ=== this ain't no tariffs deadline
When the Iran war ends. How the Iran war ends. Will firms around the world be dealing with their own circles of supply chain hell? All the products. Their applications. How and how long to fix? And the cost? https://t.co/ViUVhryJZY
So far, the US economy has remained resilient in the face of rising oil prices from the US-Israeli war on Iran. But the REAL LOSER has been AMERICAN HOUSEHOLDS. The price of gasoline, food and electricity are SOARING. TRUMP’S WAR = AFFORDABILITY PROBLEMS....
In 1973, the oil embargo lasted 5m & caused a decade of stagflation. The world was not globalized & things were sourced locally. 1) Today the ENERGY CONTENT of products around you is much much higher than 1973. 2) The West has...
In a scenario where the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, "that means $250-$300 price of oil (Brent)" argues @Rory_Johnston. Because a giant price shock is needed to destroy 15 million barrels per day of demand $220+ "almost guaranteed." https://t.co/fnf6ENgf0N https://t.co/yakBRYsHgc
The Fed’s Inaction is a Green Light for Gold Here’s my take: The data confirms the Fed is way behind the curve. Inflation is out of control, and they can’t rein it in. Their failure to hike rates isn't bearish for...
Brazil is now RESISTING a critical minerals agreement with the US. FORGET THE ART OF THE DEAL. TRUMP = MASTERCLASS AT MAKING ENEMIES. https://t.co/jmtqeFKoVb
Inflation surges due to oil shocks. None of the prior episodes had U.S. interest payments reach 5% of GDP. None. Expect inflation to surge again, with the Fed having to justify a rate cut. That is certainly not priced in markets today. https://t.co/W8K6vFstbd Great chart from...
With the onset of the US-Israeli attack on Iran, my good friend Chris Wood, Global Head of Equity Strategy at Jefferies, believes China’s onshore stocks are the top assets. CHINA = WINNER.
From fuel rationing in Sri Lanka to restaurant closures in India, flight cancellations in Thailand, and food and fertilizer shocks across Asia -- the ripple effects of the US-Israeli war on Iran are global. THE US-ISRAELI WAR'S COLLATERAL DAMAGE IS MASSIVE. https://t.co/jD1WHbQj6T
Many commentators on Iran war have seemingly not thought any further ahead than “China is hurt most by Hormuz closing” Below is just one small example of why that view is so wrong 👇
"The risk of a hike might be rising but the risks of lots of cuts is rising too." - UBS
The most recent genuinely vicious counter trend rally I recall was March 2022, SPX broke the YTD downtrend that had formed, reclaimed the 200 day moving average and then kept going for another week. Genuinely seemed like we had torn...
When politicians quote war costs, they're usually giving you the Pentagon's grocery bill, not the real economic damage. Oil shocks, lost jobs, delayed investment - the true cost isn't billions, it's hundreds of billions. Always ask: what are they not counting? https://t.co/Q56IHqdfvB
The New York Times on one of the major economic effects of the War: “At least 39 energy oil refineries, natural gas fields and other energy sites in nine countries have been damaged since the United States and Israel began...
The largest energy supply shock in history just hit as the entire global economy had been riding high on the most energy intensive tech ever (AI), @Rory_Johnston argues. "I hope I'm wrong." Apple🔊https://t.co/hBJ1sBFqgN Spotify📽️https://t.co/fnf6ENfHbf https://t.co/OJPNLB003V
