Global Economy Social Media and Updates
Global Economy Social Media and Updates
Global Economy Pulse
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
The Cleveland Fed is now forecasting a 2.87% CPI inflation rate for March, up from 2.4% in February. That will be the 60th consecutive month (5 straight years) with inflation above the Fed's 2% target. There's no way Powell cuts rates again before his term ends in May. https://t.co/AXLv7PBokl
“Winning like never before”? Iran keeps exporting oil through Hormuz Saudi, Iraqi, and Gulf supplies stall and global shipping freezes. Control of the chokepoint looks very different from the victory narrative. https://t.co/XWciH00m2o #IranWar #OilMarkets #Hormuz #EnergySecurity #Geopolitics
Bond Market: less than 1% probability of a Fed rate cut next week. Lloyd Christmas: so you're telling me there's a chance? https://t.co/29QHtCRSqe
UN Security Council Condemns #Iran Attacks Against Gulf Neighbors The resolution, proposed by Bahrain on behalf of GCC, decried Iran’s retaliation against civilian targets, including energy facilities, as an international law violation. @Magdalena_971 https://t.co/P9t8JHNDMg
Today I learned that Iran's GDP growth rate pre-Islamic revolution was 5%-9% a year, and that's dropped to 2% year in the ensuing 40 years. Iran had been on pace to be a South Korean or Turkey-style developed country before...
U.S. details its participation in the IEA coordinated SPR release. Washington will release 172 million barrels over a 120 day period, equal to a flow of ~1.4 million barrels per day.
Carlyle's Jeff Currie lays out a case for why oil and other commodity prices are heading higher, regardless of the exact outcome of the war in Iran. https://t.co/tMKWpSXhYe
Ocean carriers have been leaving containers bound for Dubai in the port of Salalah, Oman until the Strait of Hormuz reopens. They're regretting that decision right now.
🇧🇷Cargill has paused soybean exports from Brazil to China due to the implementation of stricter sanitary inspections at the request of the Chinese government. https://t.co/75cYy0TIFX
IF-THEN I am growing in confidence we’re gonna hit 4.8% in the US 10 year yield this year - with potential overshoot of crude to $300 and 10Y to 5.8% in a real panic (outlier event). That's too scary to digest/trade but...
A pretty great conversation with @ed_elson_ and the FT's Katie Martin about what financial markets can tell us at critical moments, and what they're telling us about the war in Iran and America's place in the world. https://youtu.be/Jr7X0tlOl1k?si=9FjFHp0n13n6dPoL
Today the market got exactly what it wanted: inflation right on target at 2.4%. And it still fell. Oil surged 7% to $89.50. Ships were struck near the Strait of Hormuz. The FBI warned about Iranian drone attacks on U.S....
Today, Spain PERMANENTLY withdrew its ambassador to Israel. This comes after the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran. TRUMP & NETANYAHU ARE COLLECTING ENEMIES BY THE BUSHEL. https://t.co/PfxwQify0D
According to the OECD’s 2026 Global Debt Report, “governments and companies are set to borrow 29 TRILLION USD...in 2026”. That’s DOUBLE the amount TEN YEARS AGO. THE GLOBAL DEBT MACHINE IS IN OVERDRIVE. https://t.co/i5ETywj1pD
The last 24 hours have brought the most sustained attacks from both sides since the conflict started. We could see this escalation spill into the Strait of Hormuz with mines and further maritime disruption. Full video analysis exclusively on...
3 terrifying reasons the US military operations in Iran expose the fragility of global economics. Mainstream theory assumes a world of abundance and perfect competition. The reality is that our global supply chains rely on massive physical bottlenecks. From the single...
The internet and social media has desensitized humans to a lot of things. I don’t think we grasp just how crazy the stuff that’s going on is and the fact that it’s broadcast for the world to see in real-time. Markets...
So much energy geopolitics, a weekly show is not enough. Check out our new rapid response deep dive on key Iran-related energy questions like this episode’s look at what it would take to reopen the strait of Hormuz. Great...
OUT NOW - how @JosephEStiglitz sees it: - higher oil & food prices and "Economic Chaos" are serious risks of U.S.-Iran War - "significant probability" AI is in a bubble Apple https://t.co/7Ewtn8N1AT Spotify https://t.co/3AKmC9yw2d YouTube https://t.co/yR3j6zbCrB 1/3 https://t.co/7fTyMMYBkK
Bond yields are back near their highest levels of 2026. Mortgage rates are also close to their 2026-highs, with MND putting the 30-year fixed at 6.19% today, just 2 bps below its peak thus far this year. There's a decent chance mortgage...
The US collected a record $308 billion in customs duties over the last 12 months, which was 276% higher than what was collected in the 12 months prior ($83 billion). Who is paying this tax and how much of it will...
The Strait of Hormuz is turning into the key test of strength between the US and Iran. I've been thinking about what happens if it stays closed for an extended period. My conclusions might surprise you. https://t.co/mPXBo8HuqY
March 3, 2026 edition of FFTT: "Iran doesn't need to defeat the US military; just the UST market" March 11, 2026: "S&P has warned that the Middle East conflict is beginning to strain credit channels across multiple sectors" https://t.co/pnftNUeht5
In the first 5 months of the 2026 Fiscal Year the US Federal Government took in $2.1 trillion and spent $3.1 trillion. Don’t try this at home. https://t.co/nGKPLUJ4vh
- Mixed Earnings - New Fed Chair - Multiple sectors collapsing - Aggressive Middle East War - Venezuela invaded - China challenging the US Dollar - US tariffs deemed illegal - Precious metals going parabolic - Oil spiking - $VIX running to 35 - Crypto completing an ABC correction And...
and if Israel & US truce depends on Iran pledging no more nuclear program does anyone believe this?
yes, it did but it was also followed by a complete revolution in how oil prices were set. Before oil companies negotiated a posted price with OPEC. Afterwards OPEC set prices thru production quotas I♥️historical comparisons, but not everything is directly...
Knowing that the Kremlin has sent its political strategists to help him, I’m afraid Orban may soon start pushing even more deranged nonsense, things like a “Ukrainian terrorist attacks” in Hungary or a “Ukrainian assassination attempt” against him.
BNP PARIBAS: “.. We think core #PCE could climb to 3.4% y/y by Q2, a striking implication of the hot PCE-relevant components that complicates the Fed’s policy path. We see upside risk to this estimate if the oil-price shock persists.”...
1/6 Ten seafarers have now been killed in 13 attacks on merchant vessels since the Iran conflict erupted on February 28 — more than the 7 U.S. servicemen killed in the war. The focal point is shifting: can the Strait of...
US price-to-production response is typically ~6 months. In an exceptional situation, like now, maybe we could get that down to ~4 months? But if the Strait is still closed in 4 months the entire global economy is pretty well screwed.
CPI Inflation Rose on Food & Energy Prices, even before Gasoline Price Spike. YoY still Pushed Down by Bad-Joke OER. The Bad-Joke of Owners Equivalent of Rent (OER) explained https://t.co/Drnu0dnRE2 https://t.co/nyv8tW3qx5
High oil prices are great for Putin. At $85 per barrel, Urals oil price is now the highest since 2022. High prices also mean the EU's maritime services ban in its 20th sanctions package is dead and pressure in the...
Bonds fall on growth fears and rise on recession fears - as a rule of thumb. But that’s under monetary dominance, not fiscal dominance. The new rulebook will look very much like February into the April tariff terror event where dollar and bonds...
So, now I'm seeing ads for IEEPA tariff refunds and US tariff calculation work. On the one hand, the market works. On the other hand, this is costly and only necessary because of misguided US tariff policy https://t.co/nU32IBGoFO
The Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz could have major supply chain implications. Lisa Anderson explains why this global shipping chokepoint matters—and what manufacturers should be thinking about now. Watch the Supply Chain Byte. #SupplyChain #Geopolitics #Manufacturing https://t.co/hLUT5Rpp0T
No suspense here, seeing as the Treasury Secretary already confirmed that these "investigations" will result in new tariffs. The only question is how USTR will justify the conclusions the White House has already written
Employ America Statement on the Coordinated IEA Release. https://t.co/goQS5uJUUS No stockpile release can compare to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but with the right preparation, there are still ways to make it helpful at the margin. https://t.co/K549sAsIrM
Interview coming out very soon with legendary economist (by some objective measures he is #1 economist of all time) He has severe concerns about an oil shock & stagflation
If governments lean too hard into fuel subsidies this is going to shift from necessary demand destruction to rolling fiscal crises.
Sanctions news: EU is weighing lifting its Russian sanctions against oil trader Niels Troost. Diplomats told the FT the designation of the Dutch trader was "legally weaker" than other listings. Discussions on-going. Decision subject to approval by 17 March https://t.co/JxBkaf5Xzx
OPEC+ crude production rose more than 400 kbpd m/m in February according to just-released OPEC data, with the bulk driven by the ongoing Kazakh recovery. Unfortunately it's immediately worthless given GCC crude exports were throttled immediately thereafter by Iran War. https://t.co/jTQxOjrt4b
for whom?! Iranian tankers shipping Iranian oil? Right now there's a Thai cargo ship on fire off the Coast of Oman that tried to transit the Strait of Hormuz. Maybe ask them if they think its working out "very well"
My full write up on inflation. Important to remember that we can not sustain or obtain full employment unless inflation is detailed. For those arguing the #FOMC should cut to shore up employment and ease inequality. Cuts in late 2024...
President Donald Trump said he didn’t believe Iran was laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Asked Wednesday whether Iran had laid mines in the strait, Trump told reporters, “We don’t think so. Trump also urged oil companies to send their...
Diesel prices for U.S. truckers rose a record 96 cents a gallon this past week, a sign of the financial strains hitting supply chains following the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran. https://t.co/C9K90LaXGX
“More specifically, this conflict represents a supply shock, not demand driven inflation, which from a monetary policy perspective makes a very significant difference, as a supply shock will reduce demand, consumption, and consequently growth.” - Rieder
Here's monthly seasonally adjusted core. It's been pretty stable for the last three years (perhaps not at the level you'd prefer.) https://t.co/1r4VLXWf1S
The first is interesting here, as the cut-off date was well before the flurry in oil prices. You can basically at this make a reasonable case for anything from 0.1pp to 0.4pp extra on the 2026 headline forecast.
Iran's demand is the U.S. leave the Middle East. Basically, do the pivot to Asia for real.
