Iran Can Hold Hormuz Longer; US Strikes Won’t Spark Crisis
Seven weeks later, many taboos broken: 1) Iran can’t block the Strait of Hormuz. Yes, it can, and for far longer than the oil market thought it would be possible. 2) If the US attacks, an energy crisis follows. Sure, gasoline is dearer, but an energy crisis à la 1973-79? Nope.
China to Issue RMB 15.5bn Treasury Bonds in Hong Kong
Xinhua: "China's Ministry of Finance on Wednesday said that it will issue this year's second batch of RMB 15.5 billion in renminbi-denominated treasury bonds in Hong Kong on April 22." https://t.co/OFSlsUluRF
Rupee Hits Record Low Amid Capital Flight, War Fallout
#IndiaWatch 🇮🇳: The Indian rupee has declined by over 4% since the start of 2026, hitting a RECORD LOW. India is suffering from capital flight that has been exacerbated because of the US-Israeli war on Iran. https://t.co/U9Bqls3Z0G
China Dominates Global Green Tech Landscape
The Financial Times reports that China has a ROYAL FLUSH. Chinese now leads in EVs, solar panels, batteries, wind turbines, and more. CHINA HAS CARDS AND KNOWS HOW TO PLAY THEM. https://t.co/XCaFDiD4ka
US Treasury: China Blocked From Iranian Oil
And in response:: US treasury secretary says China will not be able to get oil from Iran ⏳🇨🇳🛢️ $USDCNH
Sinopec to Source Russian Oil Directly After US Waiver
Translation: With President Trump Waver, SINOPEC can but the Russian oil "DIRECTLY" without STS or intermediaries. Sinopec buys Russian oil to replace Mideast supply after US waiver, sources say
Iran Reverts to State-Controlled Oil Export Model
⚾️I have no idea about the implications... but one thing is clear, they know things that we don't. ⚾️Please share your thought if you are familiar with these issues. 🛟Iran ends intermediary oil sales, returns to state-controlled export model...
Energy Shock Just Beginning, World Faces Unprecedented Recovery Crisis
The energy pain hasn’t hit yet—it’s just starting says @OpenSquareCap He's right but it's worse than that Even if Hormuz reopens, the world may never fully recover from this shock To find an event on this scale, you have to go back...
AI Hardware Fuels Asian Market Outperformance Despite Iran War
Which is a bigger impact on financial markets and companies' earnings: AI or Iran War? Well, the Kospi and Taiwan are still best in Asia and also world in equity performance. Why? They are the hardware of AI, as in chip...
Closing Hormuz Harms All, Not Just China
Reductive nonsense @DrJStrategy I could be more strident "Closing Hormuz hurts China” is fantasy It hurts EVERYONE—starting with the system the U.S. sits at the center of You call yourself a strategist. Run your dumb idea thru a chat bot to see what an...
Export‑heavy KOSPI Climbs as Domestic Economy Stalls
South Korean Kospi is up 22% in April and that's not because the economy is not affected by the Iran War but more due to the composition of the stock market. The adage of the economy is not the stock market...
Venezuela, North Korea, Iran Lead Global Inflation Surge
#HankeInflationDashboard: By my measurements, this week's top 5 inflators are: 🇻🇪Venezuela — 532.3%/yr 🇰🇵North Korea — 162.3%/yr 🇮🇷Iran— 81.6%/yr 🇸🇩Sudan— 46.1%/yr 🇨🇺Cuba — 44.3%/yr https://t.co/EzuvCA0XwM
China's Subsidized Industries Fuel Overcapacity Without Market Discipline
China does not have a normal free market and a lot of their industry is subsidized by the government and banks - which lends itself to overcapacity since normal market inputs are not there to drive decisions.
Markets Shift From Fear to Fundamentals, Target Energy, Banks
Market is repricing from extreme fear back to fundamentals. What’s happening? •Unwinding of geopolitical risk built during initial escalation of war. •Talks continuing, probability of extreme outcomes declining—for now. •Stocks rebounding, USD softening, oil down from elevated levels, gold resilient. Opportunities...
Markets Find Relief, Not Optimism, in Reduced Conflict Risk
In English: markets aren't cheering conflict. They're reacting to a reduced chance of a much bigger mess. That's not optimism. That's relief. https://t.co/xyuf645L9H
Wall Street Rallies on Peace Hopes, Earnings, Inflation Data
JUST IN: Major Wall Street indexes climbed, pushing the S&P 500 near its record high, as investors eyed a potential Middle East peace deal and reviewed recent bank earnings and US inflation data.
Gulf Medium‑Sour Crude Fuels West Coast Pipeline Gap
The oil that the USA imports from the Gulf is overwhelmingly medium sour, much of which ships to the West Coast which lacks pipeline access to domestic or Canadian oil. More featured on today's Chartbook Top Links in the comment...
Financial Repression Deep Dive with Hanno Lustig Drops Tomorrow
Recorded a Financial Repression Deep Dive with @HannoLustig, it's an absolute monster Airing tomorrow 🔥
Redefining Deficits Turns Section 122 Into Ongoing Tariff Power
Important: "If 'balance-of-payments deficits' can be redefined to mean some politically salient trade imbalance, then Section 122 stops being a narrow emergency provision designed for a fixed-exchange-rate system and becomes a standing reservoir of discretionary tariff authority" https://t.co/yGvNS8REjI
Foreign Overcapacity Not Driving US Trade Surpluses, Study Shows
.@USTradeRep's Section 301 case says "systemic overcapacity" abroad causes trade surpluses that harm US manufacturing. As @stanveuger @KyleLHandley show in new comments, there's no relationship bt low capacity utilization & big trade surpluses - if anything it's the opposite:
UK Jobs Data Fix Delayed; Agency Still Unfit
Another government agency no nearer to being fit for purpose. Fix to critical UK jobs data faces further delays https://t.co/Xo7ibY3ZCw via @ft
Meloni Abandons Trump Overture to Win Italian Support
Meloni gives up on courting Trump as she seeks to gain favor with Italians https://t.co/3ACj9ch71s via @donatopmancini https://t.co/XZgA31C2R9
Inflation Is a Process, Not a Sudden Drop
Inflation is a process -- doesn't just drop from the sky, it has to be caused and continued https://t.co/I3TuKPlRD8
Iran Conflict Fuels Massive Commodity Price Surges
Since the start of the Iran war... Sulfur: +67% Jet Fuel: +66% Urea: +51% Diesel: +50% Heating Oil: +40% WTI Crude Oil: +37% European Natural Gas: +34% Gasoline: +32% Fertilizer: +31% Brent Crude Oil: +31% Coal: +14% Palm Oil: +10% Iron Ore: +7% Rice: +4% S&P 500: +1% $VIX: -8%
EV Tariffs Fall Short; Europe Uncovers Chinese FX Meddling
Indeed -- EV tariffs (CVDs) also were clearly an insufficient response (lower than China's old WTO bound 25% auto tariff on Tesla and BYD, easy workaround with plug in hybrids) And Europe only now discovering Chinese intervention in the fx market
PPI Climbs >6% Monthly, Energy Spikes Drive Third Rise
PPI Jumps by over 6% Month-to-Month Annualized for 3rd Month in a Row. Energy Price Spike just Latest Wrinkle. Hit from energy in March was softened by food and services, which briefly backed off. In prior months, services were the...
Post‑crisis Outlook: Fed Likely to Raise Rates
If the crisis blows over in the way most investors expect, i think the next Fed move will be a hike
US Gas Gains Offset by Qatar Losses, Hurting Global Economy
I have to question some people's math. Qatar is down 8 bcm and the US is up 2.6 bcm. The issue here is the difference is not being made up and what is good for the US in the short-term is bad...
Massive Money Printing Raises Bitcoin's Urgency, Not Delay
Governments have printed more money in the last 5 years than the previous 100 combined. And people still ask if it’s too late to buy Bitcoin
Hormuz Disruption Slashes Global Oil Flow, Tanker Trade Falters
Global Oil Flows Plunge as Hormuz Disruption Chokes Tanker Trade. A narrow take of what is happening. https://t.co/mROsy4L0Hr
US Blockade Takes Effect, First Ships Turned Back
U.S. Declares Blockade Effective as First Ships Turned Back from Iranian Ports. When will the Strait be open with ships and cargo flowing securely both ways? https://t.co/D3uHFpWCMS
Ford Warns Chinese Car Entry Will Devastate U.S. Manufacturing
Ford’s top executive says allowing Chinese automakers to sell their cars in the US would be “devastating” to American manufacturing Bigger question: Why is that the case, now? https://t.co/0BoCuZ9nvf
China’s Export Controls Surge, Sparking Global Rationality Debate
China flexes trade power with soaring use of export controls Eskelund: “We really need people to step back, take a rational perspective on this and ask themselves whether this is really in the best interest of everyone." Meanwhile, former USG officials...
US Ends Iran Oil Waiver, Escalates Blockade, Threatens Peace Talks
U.S. Will Let Iran Oil Waiver Expire as Blockade Tightens Grip on Global Flows. What will this do to peace negotiations? https://t.co/RyO97zrsi0
Yuan Gains as USD Slides for Eight Straight Sessions
Beijing's campaign to accept a modest appreciation of the yuan continues. The fix was set at its lowest level in 3 yrs today. On weekly basis, it has risen 2x since last Sept. Today is the 8th consecutive session...
Higher Oil Prices Won’t Create Massive Petrodollar Surge
A new blog on a hot topic -- petrodollars The basic theme though is back when oil was at $70 there weren't actually many petrodollars -- and there won't be all that many of them even if oil settles at $100 https://t.co/NFWDnn5zbv 1/
DXY Slides, Rate Expectations Lose Grip on Dollar
Fed rate expectations are drawing less influence the bearings of the Dollar. The $DXY's slide - really a 'path of least resistance break' back into range - outpacing a modest shift in FOMC rate cut expectations: https://t.co/X6AzVkA5Mb
AI Is Speeding up the K-Shaped Economy Divide
We are living in a K-shaped economy. And AI is accelerating it. This chart explains why👇
Economists Embrace Uncertainty When Leaders Behave Inconsistently
An economist’s job isn’t to pretend certainty where none exists. If the key decision-maker is wildly inconsistent, the right forecast comes with a very wide error bar.
Car Insurance Premiums No Longer Blamed for Core Inflation
Haven't heard people blaming rising car insurance premiums as the explanation for excessive core inflation in a while
Producer Prices Up 4.6% Annually; Fed Should Hold Rates
Producer Prices in the US rose 4.6% per year over the last 5 years and over 25% in total. 2% inflation is a myth. The Fed should not be cutting rates at all this year. https://t.co/sm0qnaFXWD
Fed Nominee Warsh Stuck in Uncontrollable Inflation Cycle
The Economist reports that Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh is caught in an inflation vice. As I've been saying for some time, the Fed won't be able to put the inflation genie back in the bottle. https://t.co/KKXAW30dzz
Fed Holds, Iran Shock Won’t Stubbornly Raise Inflation
Bessent says the Fed is right to wait and see how the economy handles the Iran shock but expects it will not seep into inflation expectations, allowing cuts to eventually resume. "If ever there was ‘Team Transitory,’ it’s this."
IMF Flags
Catch my take at 18:05 on the IMF’s latest assessment of the UK economy #bbcwales
Middle East War Amplifies All Global Economic Woes
Reading between the lines, the message of today's IMF flagship report is sobering: Virtually every challenge facing the global economy is poised to intensify due to the fallout of the Middle East War. This includes Insufficient growth Burdensome cost of...
Euro Hits Year‑High, Signals Broad Capital Shift
EUR/USD broke above 1.177 — the euro's strongest level in over a year. Dollar weakness + European resilience = a real structural move. When $EURUSD breaks out like this, global capital flows shift. Not just for FX traders — for every asset...
Trump Says Tolls to Iran Blocked, Tanker Turned Back
Trump's Truth Social statements have indicated the blockade also applies to ship's paying tolls to Iran. This could explain why the US-sanctioned tanker Rich Starry turned back even though it did not depart from an Iranian port, rather from the...
World Economy Decouples From Oil, Yet Some Sectors Remain Vulnerable
The global economy is less coupled to oil consumption than at any point in the last century. This buffers us against the shock of having 15% of production locked up. Though within this, certain sectors and nations are still very...
Trade and Monetary Policy Uncertainty Peaks Now
Worth checking in on the 'Economic Policy Uncertainty Index' at this stage. Here is the current state of 'trade policy' and 'monetary policy' uncertainty: https://t.co/LoRQhUsZsA
France's Lescure: Economy Bounces Back After Brief Slowdown
France’s Lescure sees the economy overcoming a short-term slowdown https://t.co/GaO9KNe7q6 via @lisaabramowicz1 @FerroTV @WHorobin https://t.co/P2LUo93tcc