Blockade Forces Iran‑linked Tankers to Abort Hormuz Passage
Some of the Iran-linked oil / refined products tankers that attempted to cross the Strait of Hormuz have either stopped or performed U-turns. The blockade, so far, appears effective. Remember, the vessels are not stopped in the middle of the strait, but on the approaches.
Higher EPS Won’t Offset Rising Rates and Inflation
@ferrotv @lisaabramowicz1 @tomkeene @business Regarding your bullish guest (Lisa)who says the EPS outlook has improved so stocks are inexpensive: * The small business confidence is lowest since April 2025. * Global bond yields have risen. The Fed is no longer likely to...
Iran Mulls Temporary Hormuz Shipping Pause to Preserve Peace Talks
SCOOP: #Iran is considering a short-term pause to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz to avoid testing a US blockade and scuppering a fresh round of peace talks, a source familiar with Tehran’s deliberations tells @BenBartenstein. https://t.co/KRuCWsRnFA
UK 10‑Year Bond Draws Record Demand, Yields Spike
The good news for the UK: the country had record amounts of investor demand for a 10-year bond offering. The bad news: they had to offer a high premium, selling the debt at the highest yield since 2008 at 4.9%....
Iranian Oil Discount Saves China $4.6B, Negligible Impact
By the US's own figures, discounted Iranian oil saved China $4.6 billion last year, about 1.5% of its oil import bill. That's in a $20 trillion economy. Nice for a few Chinese teapots, totally irrelevant to the Chinese economy.
Brazil Stocks Enter Secular Bull, Not Just Rally
Brazilian equities near record inflows. The real at its strongest level in two years. First I was told this wasn’t possible. Now I’ll hear it’s not sustainable. Nothing moves in a straight line, but don’t confuse a bear market rally with the start of...
Two‑Month Embargo Cuts China’s Emergency Reserves ~10%
"Even a two-month embargo would only see China depleting its emergency reserves by about 10%." https://t.co/9wseXtRVym https://t.co/ZfwXR9aAGx
North American Optimism Lifts Equities, Dents USD
Optimism seen in North America yesterday was contagious. Equities and bonds higher today, and oil lower. Another round of negotiations during ceasefire? $USD extending yesterday's losses. PRC trade surplus half as large as expected. MAS tightens. See https://t.co/N1Rv2Tyaik...
US Dollar Gains as Optimism Overpowers Global Pessimism
Optimism Weighs on the Greenback: North American participants shrugged off the pessimism seen in Asia Pacific and Europe yesterday after the US-Iran negotiations broke down over the weekend. The optimism was contagious and reports that another round of… https://t.co/xjkwmLy0gV https://t.co/5ocdwj561m
U.S. Economy Remains Resilient Amid Growing Global Risks
JPM's Dimon: "The U.S. economy remained resilient in the quarter, with consumers still earning and spending and businesses still healthy. Several tailwinds are supporting this resiliency, including increased fiscal stimulus, the benefits of deregulation, AI-driven capital investment and the Fed's...
Iran's Economy Was Failing Before War, Now Deeper Decline
Don’t listen to the crazies, Iran’s economy was collapsing before the war and has only continued to fall off the cliff with the war. Islamic regime decisions have only weakened the country in every domain.
USD Slides Broadly as Iran Tail Risk Fades
USD trading down on a a very broad basis, as the market continues to price lower tail risk around Iran, despite the day to day fluctuations in spot oil prices
US Blocks Iranian Ports; Tehran Vows Regional Strikes, Pakistan Mediates
JUST IN: US-Iran tensions escalated Tuesday as America blockaded Iranian ports, Tehran threatened strikes across the region, and Pakistan offered to host follow-up talks soon.
US Petroleum Exports Rise as Refined Product Shipments Surge
U.S. PETROLEUM EXPORTS accelerated by 0.6 million barrels per day (b/d) in March compared with the same month a year earlier as the war between the United States and Iran triggered a worldwide scramble for replacement crude and fuels. Crude...
US Blockade Hits India as Russian Oil Waiver Ends
JUST IN: US blockade in the Strait of Hormuz affects India as the Russian oil purchase waiver expires, escalating energy supply concerns.
Germany’s Subsidy Bill Swells, Growth Benefits Fade
Good Morning from Germany, where the subsidy bill keeps rising: total subsidies are set to increase from €307bn in 2025 to €321bn in 2026. Financial aid alone reaches €236bn, while tax expenditures climb to €85bn. The issue is not isolated...
Gold's Rise Shows It's No Longer Safe Haven
Gold is recovering but that's cold comfort for anyone who thinks of it as a safe haven. Gold is rising because the US and Iran are negotiating, which means it's trading like a high-beta asset, not a safe haven. All...
Blockade Aims to Crush Iran’s Economy, Force Negotiations
The goal of the blockade is to collapse Iran's export revenues and make it impossible for the regime to import anything. That should lead to deep recession, devaluation and hyperinflation. Ultimate goal is to bring the mullahs to the negotiating...
Treasury Yields Drop Amid Ongoing Middle East Conflict
JUST IN: U.S. Treasury yields are sliding lower with Middle East conflict still front and center.
IMF/WB Summit Likely Triggers Further Oil Price Drop
The IMF/WB meetings are happening this week in DC. My best guess is that they'll be a catalyst for oil prices to fall further. A lot of people are coming to DC from across the world and will realize the...
Oil Prices Dip as US Blocks Iranian Ports
JUST IN: Oil prices are falling as the US starts blocking Iranian ports, amid growing talk of negotiations.
Shipping Surge, Iran Nuclear Pause, Israel‑Lebanon Talks Signal Hope
🔥 FINALLY SOME GOOD NEWS FOR WORLD WAR 🔥 34 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on 12 April. Highest since this war began. Iran offered to suspend nuclear activity for 5 years. Israel and Lebanon to hold negotiation talks in the...
EU's New Minerals Platform Challenges China's Rare Earth Dominance
China controls 90% of rare earth output. The EU just launched a coordinated minerals procurement platform. Geopolitics, energy transition, defense, AI chips: all competing for the same supply chain. This is not a trade story. It is a sovereignty story. https://t.co/0NssdXkSXt
FIIs Misread India: Growth Potential Undermined by Taxes
what this article shows is how wrong the FIIs can be. When they thought India was the only game in town in 2 yrs it was not- now they think other countries are the only game in town so... Reality is...
Inflation Set to Accelerate, Rate Path Still Uncertain, Says Rehn
ECB’s Rehn says inflation to quicken but rate path isn’t locked in https://t.co/7RTrVGdTLV via @NickHeubeck https://t.co/TJmYD0bUBM
Gold Plummets, Arab Views Iran, US Creates Defense Unit
In today's daily Discord linkfest: Gold has its worst month in decades, the Arab world has a very different perspective on the Iran crisis and the US launches a new DOD Economic Defense Unit. https://t.co/CJiFQqhl8n
IEA Predicts Global Oil Demand Decline in 2026
IEA: “Global oil demand is expected to fall by 80,000 barrels per day year-on-year in 2026, revised down from growth of 640,000 barrels per day seen in last month’s report. The pace of decline will subside in our base case...
China's GDP Obsession Fuels Persistent Overcapacity
1/9 Very good FT article on why overcapacity is structurally embedded into the Chinese economy. It quotes one (anonymous, of course) investor who notes that "Officials are scared of missing their GDP targets. Nobody is scared of overcapacity." https://t.co/uKm2LNhqXd via @ft
Stablecoins Compared to Civil War Financing Amid USDC Denial
In today's Daily Peg, Circle CEO denies USDC is being used for Hormuz toll payments and Axa's Giles Moec, writing in CEPR's New Global Imbalances report, recounts why stablecoins are a throwback to US Civil War financing structures. https://t.co/5ZwDkmoknk
Hormuz Blockade Hurts US; Iran, China Outlast Trump
"The oil math is skewed against the White House. The blockade has a slim chance of working. Iran can remain defiant — and China unconcerned — longer than Trump can remain solvent." https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-04-14/the-hormuz-blockade-is-as-much-about-china-as-iran
Sudan's Pound Ranks 6th Worst, Down 26% Amid War
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Sudanese pound ranks as the WORLD'S 6TH WORST CURRENCY. The pound has depreciated by 26% against the USD over the past year. Given Sudan’s brutal civil war, it’s surprising that the pound hasn’t depreciated by more....
Europe Must Match Asian Prices to Secure LNG
If Europeans want to avoid gas shortages, they need to pay competitive prices — or their LNG shipments will keep getting diverted to the highest bidder in Asia. Map from @Kpler https://t.co/BUf2kkzmNN
US Hormuz Blockade Targets China as Much as Iran
COLUMN: The US blockade on the Strait of Hormuz is as much about putting pressure on China as punishing Iran. "If Beijing has more at stake, perhaps it will put pressure on Tehran to negotiate, or so the theory goes." @Opinion #IranWar https://t.co/qhyUnXTly4
Hormuz Tensions Shift Oil Prices: Spot vs Futures
The Hormuz Crisis and the Oil Market: Spot vs. Futures – A Straightforward Classroom Explanation https://t.co/T7wjTKmYFV
1979 Oil Demand Peak Decoupled Growth From Fossils, Not Power
NEW ANALYSIS: @ember_energy just dropped new report on how the 1970s energy crises decoupled economic growth from fossil fuels but not from electricity. Global oil demand per capita peaked in 1979 and has never recovered. Makes for a fascinating reading. https://t.co/Ehd4UR5bJl https://t.co/Z1XLOJcrkK
China Tightens Export Controls to Counter US Leverage
We’ve seen this movie: 👉China ramps up export controls ahead of Xi-Trump summit to create bargaining chips that will be traded away 👉See Chap 6 in my ebook for account of run up to Busan Summit 2025 🤔 But also prepares weapon to...
Beijing Turns to Credit Subsidies to Revive Demand
1/7 Interesting Caixin article on Beijing's plan to support the economy by further subsidizing credit: "In a more forceful push to boost China’s sluggish domestic demand, policymakers are trying to make fiscal policy do more of the heavy lifting." https://t.co/4e1cuLLgF4
Leaders Launch Emergency Group to Address Middle East Energy Crisis
IMF Managing Director @KGeorgieva, @WorldBankGroup President Ajay Banga & I met in Washington for the inaugural meeting of our Emergency Coordination Group on the impacts of the Middle East conflict on energy markets, the global economy & the most vulnerable...
Manufacturing Isn’t Vanishing, It’s Becoming Automated
This map looks like the decline of manufacturing. It isn’t. It’s the disappearance of manufacturing jobs. That difference matters more than most people think. If you normalize each country to its peak manufacturing employment, you get a clear story: The...
Philippines Seeks US Waiver Extension for Russian Oil
MANILA, April 14 (Reuters) - The Philippines' Energy Secretary Sharon Garin said on Tuesday that the country is asking the United States for an extension on a waiver to purchase Russian oil and petroleum products.
Firms Still Depend on Chinese Suppliers Despite Relocation
Ha, the real insight buried in a big provocative headline take The geography of assembly has changed but have the firms themselves changed or actually deepened reliance on Chinese suppliers? I've been asking this question for like 3 years: do we...
Pakistan's Foreign Aid Dependence Stalls Economic Growth
#PakWatch🇵🇰: Pakistan lives on foreign handouts. That’s one of many reasons why its growth lags WAY BEHIND India and China. FREE IMRAN KHAN. https://t.co/sz9RmfWeXZ
FT Unveils China's “Sock 2.0
My work on this earth may be nearly over -- or at least my work of the last 4ys could be in its final chapter. The FT's Big Read is on the China sock 2.0 (one of my favorite phrases) and...
Q1 Exports Up 15% YoY, Volume Gains Likely Higher
it is actually a good number. it comes after a super strong February (new year effect + real growth) and off a high base. y/y export growth for q1 was 15% in dollar terms almost certainly more in...
China’s New Bank Lending Slows as Household Credit Halves
Caixin: "The slowdown in China's new bank lending was driven largely by household credit, which rose 490.9 billion yuan in March, nearly halving from 988.8 billion yuan a year earlier." https://t.co/8VQxfrVL2I
Blockade Risks Crippling Global Oil System, Not Just Iran
The blockade is meant to break Iran—but it may break the system first, writes @TheMichaelEvery & @BenPicton1 Iran's storage fills quickly—leading to well shut-ins & potential permanent capacity loss Removing ~2 mb/d hits an already stressed system and adds to what...
Delivery Giants Hike Fees as Energy Costs Surge
US delivery companies are passing higher energy costs onto their customers. FedEx and UPS fuel surcharges are up to ~27%, and Amazon added a 3.5% fee for third-party sellers. AMERICANS SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR DAMAGES TO TRUMP. https://t.co/oOjUlOb1ZA
Iran's Energy Crisis Poised
The noise about the Iran and energy crisis is deafening @dshephard A signal will emerge when its catastrophic economic effects show up in people's lives. It's happening in some places already but not yet in the US where it matters to...
Chinese Tanker Slips Through Hormuz, US Credibility Plummets
A sanctioned, Chinese-linked tanker just passed through Hormuz—despite the “blockade.” If ships are moving, enforcement isn’t working. US credibility was at all-time lows Now it's in negative territory. #Oil #Energy #Geopolitics
Tariffs Trigger 40% Value Under‑Reporting by Chinese Shippers
When tariffs surged on Chinese imports, the declared shipment values dropped by roughly 40%. Since tariffs are charged as a % of declared value, Chinese logistics firms started falsifying customs forms. Markets always find a workaround. https://t.co/mzeWHQb59K