
JUST IN: A cool February inflation reading. Inflation remained at 2.4% (y/y) in February, the same as January. This reading was before the war in Iran began, so gas prices were still below $3 average. -->Note that some items had larger than normal increases in February including fuel oil, utility gas, apparel, groceries and medical care. The monthly gain (just for month of Feb.) was 0.3%. “Core inflation” (excluding food and energy) was 2.5%

In the coming days and weeks, a lot may hinge on the pipelines running West from the Gulf. Chartbook Top Links of the day just dropped: https://t.co/olUgBDf1dD
A conversation between me and PGIM's Daleep Singh (recorded before the bombs started falling on Tehran) that covers a number of big macro themes -- including the persistence of an unhealthy and unbalanced forms of globalization. https://t.co/9i02acEiiE
I was interviewed by @AlJazeera on impacts of Middle East crisis on energy markets. We discussed Europe’s structural vulnerability due to fossil fuel imports, broader economic effects of energy price volatility & why this moment should sharpen focus on the energy...
Even if the war ends fast, “normal” won’t fully return. Trust and relationships are slow to rebuild, and that shows up as less trade, less cooperation, and more expensive risk management. https://t.co/mIgNA1yJph
Iran’s Control of Hormuz Means It’s Exporting More Oil Today Than Before the War https://t.co/UlXJwHN0ld

"Farmers Face Skyrocketing Fertilizer Prices," https://t.co/CYP8u85BYC "Even when the United States is not directly importing fertilizer from the Middle East, domestic prices still follow global markets." 😲 https://t.co/5N5ApqoDhL

Oil prices +2% - here’s the latest: ⚠️ Iran: Says it will target U.S. technology company facilities next, including $AMZN $MSFT $NVDA $IBM $ORCL $PLTR locations in Israel, Dubai, and Abu Dhabi 🛢️ Oil reserve release updates: 🇩🇪 Germany to partially release national...

The reality is: If you like commodities, you should also appreciate resource-rich economies — and their currencies. Canadian “peso” poised to outperform while it remains one of the most heavily shorted currencies in the world today. You don’t need to tell me...

Middle East War Intensifies, IEA Proposes a Coordinated Release of Strategic Reserves, G7 to Consider: The dollar is mixed as the North American session is about to begin. Heightened expectations of a rate hike next week have lifted the Australian...

Greece to impose cap on profit margins for fuel and groceries https://t.co/PeATWo5wZT via @NikasSotiris https://t.co/SdRCwkzf2I

Industries don't collapse overnight. They are systematically pushed out. China's 90% Model works by building production capacity to meet 90% of global demand in a targeted sector. Chinese companies then flood markets and price at or below marginal cost—supported by subsidies, cheap...

$AUD reached its best level since June 2022 amid heightened expectations of a rate hike next week. $USD more broadly mixed. PBOC lows USD fix again. US CPI seems dated but will show floor before the war....

US political leaders, the oil industry, and traders are waking up to what we advised clients in June: restoring oil and LNG flow in the Strait of Hormuz won't be quick or easy. A load-bearing assumption in global energy is...
From oversupply to concern of shortages - IEA oil stocks release is coming, sources say https://t.co/ttzyIWK0qw

Germany can weather Iran war if it doesn’t last, DIW says https://t.co/p2s5WEREa5 via @KowalczeKamil https://t.co/Tgo1ceqVj6
MOSCOW, March 11 (Reuters) - The price of Russian oil used for taxation has exceeded the budget target for the first time since January 2025 because of the rise in global prices caused by the Iran war, Reuters calculations showed...

Frustrating. China won't use the "clean" balance sheet of the central government to support a real recovery from the prolonged property market slump. The net result: a rising trade surplus supports China's growth at the expense of its trading...

EU weighs a gas price cap to lower power costs amid Iran war https://t.co/3qDLf3s6Jq via @johnainger https://t.co/A2PK57MYOp
inflation is about power. In the 70s, workers had the power to resist the oil squeeze. In 2022, there were acute labour shortages, which produced temporary pockets of worker "power". Today, workers are gonna get hosed
Also, as the IEA releases, member countries are reaching out to China to make sure it doesn't use the opportunity to buy more barrels for its own reserve (as it did in 2022). (...the IEA-Chinese coordinate was last done in 2011...
never bet against the ECB doing the wrong thing, particularly when energy prices are involved
Spoke with Bloomberg earlier today about the IEA stocks release plan, the information war on top of the military conflict in the Mideast, the severe pricing dislocations in the oil market, plus the unfolding impact of the continued closure of...

Sánchez rejects Trump’s threat to cut off US trade with Spain https://t.co/fIgEZES8mP via @rorihuela https://t.co/Fiix9DqEgG
Inside the G7 (and the G20) most countries are absolutely livid with the Trump administration's attack on Iran, but don't mistake their indignation with a desire to let Iran take the global economy hostage via oil. G7/G20/OECD nations will respond...
Brazil and Saudi Arabia launch a critical minerals working group and seek Saudi funding for Brazil mapping. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/brazil-saudi-arabia-to-cooperate-for.html
We see three scenarios for the ECB. 1) They hold their nerve "in a good place". 2) They pull fwd the tightening that has long been priced into 27/28 and take the depo rate to the higher end of neutral...
🇪🇺 Not only did @KazimirPeter signal a strong ECB hawkish bias, but he said that every meeting should be alive after March. *ECB'S KAZIMIR SAYS RATE HIKE ON IRAN MAY BE CLOSER THAN THOUGHT "I don’t want to speculate about April or...

🚀 𝗭𝗲𝗿𝗼-𝘁𝗼-𝗛𝗲𝗿𝗼 𝗣𝘂𝗯𝗹𝗶𝗰 𝗣𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗼: 𝗙𝗲𝗯𝗿𝘂𝗮𝗿𝘆 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗚𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗹 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗡𝗲𝘄𝘀 Let’s break down what happened in the markets over the past month. ----- 🌏 A Shifting Global Landscape The SAASpocalypse — the fear that Artificial Intelligence will soon put Software Services companies out...

The world's largest LNG plant hasn't exported a shipment in five days. That's the longest streak since at least 2008 🇶🇦⚠️ Qatar shut its Ras Laffan facility last week after a drone attack The longer Qatar's outage continues, the tighter the market...

Since the first US-Israeli strikes on Iran just over 10 days ago, the Iranian rial has APPRECIATED by 17% against the USD. THE TRUMP-NETANYAHU ATTACKS ON IRAN = SURPRISING STRENGTH IN THE RIAL. https://t.co/BPJtg4MvGr
The IEA is preparing to release more oil than it did after Russia invaded Ukraine. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed to tankers. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/TcCIMKXR4l
A more skeptical take from my #CarnegieAsia colleague Barbara Weisel, who was, among other negotiating roles, the U.S. negotiator of TPP: https://t.co/qWfsfWFbf1
I feel like there’s war discourse and there’s Strait of Hormuz/energy discourse and some people are conflating the two in unhelpful ways even if they’re obviously linked.
I was interviewed two weeks ago by Mark Sobel at OMFIF about the outlook for the Chinese economy. It just came out. https://t.co/d6LFlYcl14

There are many narratives that are regularly spun by the spinners. One is that the UAE is more than a sunny place where shady people reside. Another is that it is a booming economy. Wrong. When you look at the data, the...
IEA Proposes Largest Ever Oil Release From Strategic Reserves…but if one country objects then it won’t go through (kinda like OPEC…) https://t.co/wnthFedVaT
If the administration’s strategy to keep oil prices down is to manipulate the market by making false and/or vague statements on social media about the war then well…points for creativity
Just when cooling oil prices promised a bit of relief to the market, the US CPI report threatens to revive inflation fears. #inflation #CPI #StockMarket #OilShock #crudeoil #macro #trading https://t.co/2xB2LsqJuF

China’s exports SURGED by 21.8% in the first 2 months of 2026. Trump’s international trade war is BACKFIRING. Thanks to Trump, CHINA IS WINNING THE TRADE WAR, BIG-TIME. https://t.co/h0s5xlnA1N
China’s Export Machine Keeps Pumping Ahead of Trump Visit—After record trade surplus in 2025, new figures suggest tensions will persist @LandersWSJ @TByGraceZhu https://t.co/siI2mnk49t https://t.co/siI2mnk49t
Good morning (still in Hanoi), @NatixisResearch @natixis published our Global Cross-Expertise overnight & please take a read for our views on: Oil & gas Metals & Precious Metals Macro Impact (Asia, Middle East, Europe, US & LatAm) Financial Market Impact (equities, rates, FX).

"Beijing is not allergic to spending. It is just not confident about spending that gives households too much autonomy over how to use the money." --@ZichenWanghere Very good read on the need for rural pension reform, among other things https://t.co/HMmzkQ9ZMn https://t.co/sEMkJotQeP

#HankeInflationDashboard: By my measurements, this week's top 5 inflators are: 🇻🇪Venezuela — 668.1%/yr 🇰🇵North Korea — 111.3%/yr 🇮🇷Iran— 66.2%/yr 🇱🇾Libya — 65.9%/yr 🇨🇺Cuba — 47.4%/yr https://t.co/hmt2ECWysz
Seoul is really getting squeezed - (1) U.S. trade policy squeezing its competitiveness, (2) U.S. policy in the Middle East squeezing its energy security, and now (3) U.S. warfighting requirements squeezing USFK assets. It's fine to lawyer this or that...
WHEN THE ARTERY THAT SUPPLIES A FIFTH OF GLOBAL OIL NEEDS, THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, IS WEAPONISED. Iran says it won’t let traffic through, bills its continued closure as victory. US wants to reopen it, proposes naval escorts if necessary. Here’s Iran’s Araghchi...
G7 head of state and/or government will hold a video call Wednesday to discuss the impact of the Third Gulf War, particularly around the “energy situation” and the Strait of Hormuz. The call is scheduled for 2pm GMT. I doubt this...
“We’re in a Schrodinger’s tariff right now.” One proclamation says “a 10% tariff on the rest of the world,” the next post says “a 15% tariff literally effective immediately,” then the White House pretends he never said it. The crack team...

Industrial policy FTW: "China's Tariff-Defying Export Boom Leaves Its Factory Workers Behind: Workers who powered a tariff-defying boom tell a grim story of falling wages and vanishing jobs." https://t.co/cIfJHANUgW https://t.co/ZIN1PXUzwE
Our World in Data is usually one of the best sites on the internet, but this chart is kind of garbage. It just assumes slow fertility drops and low growth in Africa, when the first assumption is being falsified by...