Global Economy Social Media and Updates
Global Economy Social Media and Updates
Global Economy Pulse
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
The Chinese Century is now the conventional wisdom. Previous narratives of China's peak and decline proved premature. But I see some definite signs that China is growing weaker, and only a few people seem to be paying attention. https://t.co/PUBIvyJcaw
Despite the headlines, global container trade volumes are largely unaffected by the Iran War (CNY is the reason that China and Vietnam are down MoM). https://t.co/YplrKgSLTc
PCE, CPI & PPI were running hot even before the Iran war’s oil shock, writes @JohnFMauldin @DavidBahnsen says Feb jobs data was “surprisingly bad” Mauldin sees the familiar muddle-through story with AI capex, services & manufacturing I see an "unsurprisingly bad" macro https://t.co/EGIOgUMGxc #Inflation...
Good Morning from #Germany, where 10y govt bond yields have risen >3%, their highest level since 2011. The recent increase is driven disproportionately by higher long-term inflation expectations – meaning real 10y yields have fallen from 1.35% to 0.77%. The chart...
Catch my take at 11:30am on the impact of war on the British economy #skynews
The 10-year approaching 4.4% and then we get this "drop" from the president. Another FAFO moment? This coming week will be epic.
Former British Diplomat Alastair Crooke on US-Israeli attacks on Iran: "The wheels are coming off this whole thing. It's spiraling really out of control. And it increased enormously with the [recent] attack on the Iranian South Pars gas field... That was...
Goldman > The unprecedented US and Israeli coordinated attack on Iran has resulted in the largest energy supply disruption in history.
Caixin: "Major Chinese carmakers are setting ambitious overseas sales and localized production targets for 2026 to offset a cooling domestic market." https://t.co/P0EUxL3lEN
Caixin: "Driven by a regulatory crackdown on risk in the financial system, China's multitrillion-dollar trust industry is being forced to abandon its old, highly profitable model of funneling funds into non-standard debt for real estate projects and local governments." https://t.co/eN5eDafjR4
People's Daily: "China and the US agreed to explore the establishment of working mechanisms to expand economic and trade cooperation, continue to make good use of the China-U.S. economic and trade consultation mechanism, strengthen dialogue and communication, properly manage differences,...
1/8 Caixin: "China’s fixed-asset investment (FAI) returned to growth in the first two months of this year, rising 1.8% year on year, beating expectations as infrastructure spending jumped." https://t.co/cCOIgPDXNn
I'm a little ambivalent about the Iran war. On the plus side, America needed to learn how to fight a modern war. And it'll make Trump unpopular. On the minus side it'll kill a bunch of people and hurt the global economy
The stock market reaches its November low and President Trump considers ending the Iran conflict. Hopefully this war will end soon, enough lives lost already. Any good news and the stock market will be off to the races. $NDX $SPX...
Rick Rieder of BlackRock told Unhedged. 👉 “This is one of the largest supply shocks we’ve seen in a generation, 👉markets have had to react quickly, 💥 when markets move quickly, they overreact.” https://t.co/RRf6LgSI91
🟥TRUMP’S SURPRISE IRAN OIL U-TURN: 30-Day Waiver Unlocks 140M Barrels: ▪️Will IT LOWER OIL PRICES? (ask your company to subscribe) Link: https://t.co/XUVxhDoQuD
The Narrowing Straits: Why the Middle East Crisis is a Fault Line for Global Industry "..headlines focus on price of oil at the pump, a deeper story lies in dislocation of energy markets and the global breakdown in the traditional distribution...
You're right about the big picture of thin margins, structural dependence & denial @ashokdadhwal196 But Hormuz is not merely “a chokepoint.” It is the central artery of the global economy. We knew that before things overshot so much #OilMarkets #Hormuz #Geopolitics...
Gulf oil and gas flows may take months or years to restore. That means this is not a temporary price spike. It's the biggest oil shock in history And it hits the heart of the global economy. https://t.co/DOP0vnh2av #OilMarkets #LNG #Hormuz #EnergySecurity #IranWar
So, just to be clear. 1️⃣US & Iran sever ties 2️⃣US sanctions Iranian oil 3️⃣US attacks Iran 4️⃣Iran attacks shipping cutting off the flow of oil 5️⃣The US approves the sale of Iranian oil in the US https://t.co/USz8VfvQGc
Middle East conflict threatens to disrupt vital remittance flows: As Iranian strikes on Gulf energy and finance targets enter their fourth week, attention is shifting to how a protracted conflict may impace remittance flows from the region. @TheBanker: https://t.co/4x3Ae5yVhD https://t.co/vPgl44Nolf
So under this OFAC licence, the US could (though probably won't) import its first Iranian oil since Jimmy Carter https://t.co/7slkt1bAxs
"Trump just authorized Americans to trade Iranian oil for the first time since Clinton banned Americans from doing so in 1995." @petereharrell
What can Canada do to help address the global shortage of oil and gas caused by the war in Iran? #canada🇨🇦 #canada #energy
🔴President Trump talking about Hormuz Strait: “We don’t even need to be there, in that the U.S. has just become the largest producer of energy anywhere in the world.” He also questioned the role of the U.S. in the region: The...
In just two weeks, Middle East Oil on Water has collapsed by 175 Million Barrels. "Truly staggering" - @Rory_Johnston (it's his chart). "It’s impossible to overstate the magnitude of this dislocation." 1/3 https://t.co/iYwEtzNH9E
Another remarkable change in net-speculative positioning comes from AUDUSD. A further nudge in the net long positioning, pushes futures spec interest to the heaviest long since October 2017. A carry drive as rate forecasts pick up https://t.co/sJ0Xl2KxxD
You are not alone. "Monetary conditions in the UK are... appreciably tighter than they were in 2022, and households are under more financial strain. The Bank of England does not have anything like as much room to raise rates as...
The market is currently betting that this whole "Hormuz problem" gets cleaned up in the next 30 days. And I’m looking at the data from my office in Abu Dhabi, and so far it’s heading that way. But if that two-mile-wide...
Copper just dropped 4.8% in a single session. LME inventories at highest since 2019. When Dr. Copper rolls over while oil surges, it's telling you something ugly about global demand. https://t.co/qDHoGINfEz
Trump is bailing out and leaving the rest of the world to clear up his mess.
Oil price and GDP effects of SoH closure for one, two or three quarters. https://t.co/JOzrf3rVQR
Bichler and Nizan’s latest: How the relative earnings of the core oil companies vary with the oil price. Featured in today's Chartbook Top Links: https://t.co/rSQKknEmX7
🛢️ OIL & IRAN WAR CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ Crude rose in further fits and starts as the Iran War stretches into its 4th week and belligerents escalate to attacks on upstream infrastructure that have already wrought durable supply losses. Summary below, link...
That is one looong blue line. A month ago, Fed fund futures were pricing in the next cut as June. This June. Now it's October '27 https://t.co/HCElEgtrLE
yields - what a week(!) as they appear to be resolving higher after consolidating... it's a global phenomenon... not a U.S. thing, or a Canada thing, or a Europe thing... $TNX $TYX 😜 please don't blame Trump, or the Iran war, or...
The S&P 500 is now down 7.6% from its January peak. Is that a lot? Not at all. This is right in line with the median correction off an all-time high since the March 2009 low. We see a decline of this amount...
Headlines that the US is thinking about taking Kharg island are pushing up Brent (lhs) and causing stocks to tank (rhs). Taking Kharg doesn't reopen the Strait and could turn into a fiasco. Better to embargo Iranian oil and force...
Markets have turned. S&P down 5.4% YTD — all of that loss in the last two weeks. War premium showing up fast. Watch this space. https://t.co/D3wvQr7z9M
Business cycles have a way of repeating themselves, despite many feeling like this time is different. https://t.co/BhO6huMktT
3w into conflict, gas prices on higher trajectory than in 2022 (Ukraine invasion). WTI 1M/6M spread off peak inversion, so are implied vols for WTI. 2YR inflation expectations on similar trajectory as 2022. LT inflation exp not reacting much...
Yup. Market pricing in 2-3 rate hikes for ECB and BoE How many for the Fed?!
When government and private debt are this extreme, only one of these lines can rise. …... not the red one. https://t.co/YjKShRTMiy https://t.co/mOHRjorVpT
Due to the war in Iran and the resulting inflationary effects, the market is now pricing in zero rate cuts from the Fed this year (in contrast to the previously forecast two rate cuts). Moreover, the market is now forecasting a...
Mkts expect a Fed hiking bias, instead of cuts. 10yr Treasury yields up even more today (4.38%) With long-term interest rates rising, the Hormuz shock is getting priced as more of an inflation shock than one that triggers recession (caveat: mkts aren't...
When the Fed cutting cycle started in 2024, 20Y rates quickly moved to 4%. And after 175bp of cuts, the 30Y rates is back up to 5%. The latest wiggle is obviously the Iran effect. But the divergence is arguably 2 years...
Bitcoin is a check and balance on inflation. When spending gets too far out of hand, capital moves to Bitcoin. Competition benefits customers, and this applies even in the market for money. In this way, Bitcoin will help preserve dollar dominance.
Is it reasonable to say that a long-term, structural decline in global oil demand would not necessarily translate into lower prices, and could plausibly turn into significantly higher prices in the future?
US500 ( SPX ) At a crucial daily demand area. We have not seen these levels since late 2025. - Stagflation environment - Elevated OIL - From rate cuts to rate hikes - AI valuation concerns The whole macro narrative has changed within days. I...
Bloomberg on the selloff in the US bond market: “Not since 2023, when the central bank was still lifting rates, has the two-year yield risen so much above the Fed’s rate ceiling. On Friday, five-year yields surpassed 4% for the first...
