Iran’s Oil Revenue Persists After Export Shutdowns
Important nuance. Most observers are focused on a countdown to Iran’s storages filling up and oil fields shutting down. But the physical and the financial flows move in different cycles, especially for Tehran under the sanctions regime. Revenues will continue to flow in well after oil outflows have dried up. Sure, the stoppage of export loadings will apply psychological pressure, but it won’t deplete the coffers right away.
Markets Brace for Rates, Earnings, GDP, Iran Tensions
Here's my video for the week ahead: With Rate Decisions, Tech Earnings and GDP On Tap, Markets Can Ill-Afford Fresh U.S.-Iran Headlines https://t.co/ahCfP2J573 https://t.co/Kx6z0sEzid
Combined Hormuz and El Niño Pressures Trigger Food System Shock
The Hormuz supply crisis combines with El Nino to produce a massive food system shock, writes @ctindale Naphtha. El Niño. Logistics. Politics--all tightening at once Yields fall, prices rise, and stress cascades across food and state stability. Each manageable alone. Together—system stress. #FoodSecurity #Commodities...
Bessent Open to Fed Chair, Not Elected Office
Bessent says he has no ambition to run for office but “wouldn’t say ‘no’ to being Fed chair later.” “There’s no election involved. You can shape the economy, and it’s an institution.” https://t.co/3lx7XrYMiD
Trump Confirms US Desire to Close Hormuz Strait
💥President Trump has admitted he wanted the Hormuz Strait closed. 💥We knew from June/July and later in November that Washington wanted it closed. 💥We know the largest beneficiary from closing it is the U.S. And I told you that since day one. ...
Demand Destruction Is Permanent; Demand Decline Can Rebound
For the 100th time, demand destruction is one thing, demand decline is another. The first is gone for good, the second is recoverable. https://t.co/f9EpuJ1EP4
Global Markets Post Strong Gains Across All Indices
Pretty good year for the stock market (again): S&P 500 +5.0% EAFE +5.9% Nasdaq 100 +8.2% R2000 +12.6% EM +16.3% https://t.co/2fOSfjOrBp
Central Banks Pivot to Demand‑driven Liquidity, Warsh Aligns
With Kevin Warsh's nomination locked in, here's my recent take on central banks' growing shift from supply-driven ample reserves to demand-driven liquidity frameworks. The best version of Warsh's balance sheet ambitions would follow this trend.
War Sparks Global Hoarding of Gulf Supply Chains
As with all wars, the US-Israeli war on Iran has brought HOARDING back into fashion. Terrified of supplies being cut off from the Persian Gulf, nations are racing to build precautionary inventories. https://t.co/M7B9qN4okG
June‑August Brent Risk Peaks Despite Hormuz Optimism
Most oil executives expect Hormuz opening in August Now look at the Brent futures curve. All the risk liquidity sits June thru August They may both be wrong. But they’re wrong together. #OilMarkets #Brent #Hormuz #EnergyCrisis #Geopolitics https://t.co/TPkIDSc4sc
Sulphuric Acid: Hidden Bottleneck Threatening Global Supply Chains
Sulphuric acid is a hidden chokepoint in the Hormuz crisis, writes @ctindale Disruptions in the Gulf threaten food, mining, and energy. When the upstream breaks, everything downstream follows. #Commodities #SupplyChains #EnergyCrisis #FoodSecurity #Geopolitics
US Stocks Surge Post‑War, Outperform Global Markets
American stocks had been underperforming the rest of the world for several months. And the very bottom was of this was on February 27th, right before the war started. The US started a war, and since then its stock market...
Iran Conflict Cuts Oil, Boosts US Petrochemical Edge
The global petrochemical system is built on oil, and the Iran war just pulled a massive chunk of that supply off the table. With roughly 13 million barrels per day knocked offline, countries that rely on refining crude into naphtha...
Young Non‑college Workers Lose Jobs as College Peers Gain
Since @ngoldschlag and I wrote our piece, the situation has only gotten worse for young non-college workers. Young college workers have actually seen an uptick in employment. Does this look like AI to you? https://t.co/MSlKuOfnK4
Supply Vs. Demand Oil Shocks: Asymmetric Realities
Oil demand shocks are one thing; oil supply shocks are another. Nothing is symmetric. Even government policy responses are different. Comparisons among various shocks in the last 50 years are not an easy task. They require detailed knowledge of: 1. history 2. geography 3....
No Recession Yet, Just Fear and Hallmarks
There is no recession - it just seems to have a number of the hallmarks of one and there seems to be record levels of concern around one... #recession https://t.co/HBGocSyWzf
UAE USD Swap Lines May Fund China Investments
So…will the USD swap lines Bessent is going to give UAE going to finance the UAE’s newly-signed investments in China? Or are the USD swap lines so UAE doesn’t have to sell USTs to make these investments in China? Or do the...
Oil Slump Signals Waning Demand, Not Bullish Optimism
The narrative is that oil crashing is bullish — inflation cools, the consumer wins, rate cuts come sooner. Maybe. Or maybe oil is crashing because global demand is quietly rolling over and nobody wants to say it out loud. Energy...
Money Supply Surge Outpaces Golden Growth, Fuels Inflation
My take on @PalisadesRadio on America’s inflation problem: "The US will have trouble getting the inflation genie back in the bottle because the money supply has been accelerating for 18 months, growing faster than Hanke's Golden Growth Rate." https://t.co/0f14uwnTFx
Invest in Long‑Term Global Demand, Not Market Guesswork
People sometimes ask what I think about 'the market,' & my typical reply is that I have no clue, but I do feel pretty strongly that over the next 5-10 years, the world will consume more electricity, have more commercial...
Warsh’s Fed Balance Sheet Trim Risks Liquidity Crunch
In other Fed news, my latest on how Warsh plans to shrink the central bank's footprint in financial markets "It’s very clear that the balance sheet cannot be immediately reduced without causing a liquidity crunch that nobody would like," says Darrell...
Fed and Central Banks Ignoring Money Supply Theory
My view in @KitcoNewsNOW on the Fed's DISREGARD for the Quantity Theory of Money: “The Fed doesn't look at changes in the money supply, & the Fed’s not alone. Most central banks discard the money supply." Central bankers should give Sekerke &...
US Market Not Top‑Heavy; Dollar Still Reserve Power
Two myths that aren't true 1.) The US stock market is top heavy 2.) The US Dollar is losing reserve status Neither are remotely true, yet we hear them all the time https://t.co/ONyZtCOXpe
When Tech Titans Outpace Nations: A New Global Power
what happens when tech companies become more powerful than countries? imagine a supercharged east india company, shifting global fortunes, and military influence... a little forecasting with @trevornoah for @whatnowpodcast
China Bans Outbound Investments, Targeting the White House
pretty funny how we spent so much time arguing for outbound investment restrictions and then the chinese govt goes and does it for the white house...
Europe’s High Energy Prices Cause Rationing, Not Demand Destruction
Goldman says Europe is seeing “demand destruction” from high energy prices. Not quite — this is rationing, not demand responding to price. That distinction matters more than it sounds. 🧵
Destroying Tuapse Beaches Could Save 2,250 Ukrainian Lives
Grok thinks Tuapse represents roughly $1.5 billion/year in tourism, almost entirely from Russians. Let's suppose that this oil spill results in 10% of those tourist dollars getting spent outside of Russia instead, and let's suppose that 30% of those dollars were...
Cease‑fire Stalls Dollar, Hints at Upcoming Decline
Last week’s (week of 4/13) cease fire in the Middle East helped keep the bond market calm and the dollar from surpassing resistance at 100-10. The fact that the dollar’s gains were less than impressive suggests that the next major...
Asia Already Serves as Major Dollar Funding Hub
Don't get it -- Asia is already a big dollar funding center. China's state banks have a ton of dollars ... As to Hong Kong banks As for that matter do firms like TSMC and Samsung at current chip...
Chinese Tariffs Spurred Crucial Foreign Tech Investment
Correct Chinese tariffs were instrumental in creating the incentives for European, US and Japanese investment in China back when China needed foreign investment for technology and know how transfer
USDJPY: The Overlooked Market Driver You Need
I think USDJPY is one of the most important variables in the market right now that is flying under the radar. I discuss it in length here👇
Iran Keeps Exporting One Million Barrels Daily Despite Blockade
despite the us blockade, iran remains on track to export about one million barrels of oil per day in april. half of what they exported in march. but still a lot of money.
Two Months In, Hormuz Closure Signals Escalating Fallout
This week marks the war’s two-month anniversary. The Strait of Hormuz has been closed most of that time. But we’re only now transitioning from the f*ck around phase to the find out phase. Read my thoughts about the fallout headed...
Hidden Forces Eroding the Foundation of Dollar Dominance
Interesting thread that makes the case for what @sobel_mark calls the "termites feasting away at the foundation of dollar dominance". Should give us pause... (1/2)
Cleveland Fed Warned Trimmed Mean Understates Inflation, Critics Ignored
The skew issue was pointed out by the Cleveland Fed back in early 2022 as a reason the trimmed mean was understating inflation back then. Someone wanting the top job who is trashing current measures & methods probably should have...
Tooze Delivers Concise History of the Exchange Stabilization Fund
Tooze is on a roll -- great instant history of the Exchange Stabilization Fund 1/2
Indonesia's Three Straits Outpace Pre‑War Hormuz Traffic
Very interesting table from @ByMeganONeil on some other maritime chokepoints that could theoretically become toll ways. Interesting how Indonesia is adjacent to three distinct Straits that each have more ship traffic than Hormuz did pre-war. https://t.co/FpJ3aWYqyd
Rubio, EU Sign MoU to Diversify Critical Mineral Supply Chains
Rubio and EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic sign MoU says It will 'be important for economic vibrancy of global economy', 'We need diversity in supply chains of critical minerals'.
Warsh Didn't Vote Against Fed at Every Crisis Meeting
I have plenty of criticisms of Kevin Warsh, but it's factually untrue that he voted against the Fed at every meeting during the financial crisis.
FOMC Slashes Rates 75 Bps to 3.5%
January 22, 2008. The Federal Open Market Committee has decided to lower its target for the federal funds rate 75 basis points to 3-1/2 percent...Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice...
Eurozone Prices Surge Amid Second Month of Iran War
Euro zone price spike seen surging higher in 2nd nonth of Iran war https://t.co/Zs6xbpsYFw via @CraigStirling https://t.co/ATtxy6wpPJ
Fed Independence at Risk: Future Chair Could Face Jail
The important macroeconomic question isn't: Have charges against Powell been dropped? It's this: Can the next Fed chair make an unpopular decision without fear of jail? The President has made no promises he won't jail the next guy, so no, the...
Fed Chair Warns Decisions Echo Across Global Economy
Fed chair: one of the rare jobs where a bad call can echo through the entire world economy. So yes, I am old-fashioned enough to think boyish good looks and "no regrets" might be underqualified.
Iran's Hidden Tanker Fleet Keeps Oil Flowing Despite Pentagon Denial
While the Pentagon scrambles to deny it, Iran’s ‘dark fleet’ of tankers remains intact and is still moving oil. HANKE’S 95% RULE: 95% OF THE STATEMENTS FROM THE PENTAGON ARE EITHER WRONG OR IRRELEVANT. https://t.co/le11vToaZG
Eurozone PMI Drops to 3‑year Low, Economy Tanks
The Eurozone Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) has just hit 48.6. That’s its lowest level in 3 YEARS. Due to the EU’s proxy war against Russia & the US-Israeli war in Iran, Europe is TANKING. https://t.co/lxE3Z7jMDu
FT: Treasury's ESF Cash‑strapped Compared to Emirates' Central Bank
The FT notes that the Treasury's ESF appears cash constrained relative to even the Emirates' central bank, let alone the Emirates sovereign funds 1/ https://t.co/pOSa75xpDy
Congress Must Ban Political Threats to Future Fed Chairs
While I admired Tillis's stand for Fed Independence, this was always the problem with his strategy: The President can meet Tillis' threshold of promising promise not to jail *this* end-of-term Fed Chair, but he's kept open the option of threatening...
10-Year Yield Rises After Powell Probe Dropped
10yr bond yield relative to CNBC's announcement at 10:17am ET that investigation into Powell has been dropped (clearing the way for Warsh) src for intra-day chart: BBG https://t.co/TpnqqO9bLw https://t.co/UOy5Qt22Dt
Japan's Low Inflation Mirrors Sluggish Money Supply Growth
Japan’s inflation rate comes in at 1.5%/yr in March, BELOW its 2%/yr target. JP’s money supply (M2) is growing at 2.03%/yr, WELL BELOW Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of~6.07%/yr, a rate consistent with JP’s 2%/yr inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY...
Independent Fed's Inflation Focus Could Thwart AI Takeover
Has anyone made the argument yet that an independent Fed, firmly focused on its inflation target, will be one of our most important bulwarks against complete AI takeover? As long as policy prioritizes stable *consumer* prices, that puts a brake resource...