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Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
Dow futures jump 1,200 points after Trump says U.S. and Iran have held ‘productive’ talks: CNBC https://t.co/ayLrxCx0Ot
there goes China +1 'de-risking' strategy. almost everyone else is dependent on imported oil to fuel manufacturing, which it turns out is another variable which can be disrupted by rage tweet
Both the COVID-19 oil shock and the current Middle East oil shock (has) caused big moves in oil prices (Volatility), but for opposite reasons though. In 2020, demand absolutely collapsed because nobody was using or wanted as much oil as...
The U.S. has kicked off renegotiating NAFTA, but Canada was left out of the first round between Mexico and the U.S. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/FCIjtRSKp6 #nafta #trade #geopolitics https://t.co/t6Gl84ia32
We could be around 12 hours from a major escalation in the war on Iran. There is no appetite for risk. Bonds and stocks sold aggressively. Gold and silver offer no haven. The greenback is broadly higher....
Pfft. None of the desanctioned Iranian oil is going anywhere other than China, because only China can shield their payments from SWIFT. All of these masterful gambits assume the Iranians are idiots. They’re evil. Not idiots.
The EU is desperate to preserve monetary sovereignty, which is under attack by US stablecoins. That’s why S&P’s analysis is good news for the EU and ECB, which is in damage control mode, speeding digital euro launch. S&P Global...
Euro-zone wage growth to quicken in the 2nd half of next year https://t.co/k3CjyFvHvU via @jrandow https://t.co/lbCs48qBAT
Gilts face worst month since Liz Truss as oil spike jolts UK market https://t.co/hvaQFGeXXa via @greg_ritchie https://t.co/K33eBm9D5V
If credit markets continue slowing down because of straits of Hormuz oil shock and unemployment shoots up, Fed may have to announce an emergency half a point cut in next two weeks.
Traders fully price 4 quarter-point hikes from the BOE in 2026 https://t.co/W64ms8NeB5 via @greg_ritchie https://t.co/61ntA97cXa
The notion US stocks have yet to price in a dramatic war escalation makes sense. The S&P 500’s down just 6% from the peak. We’ve seen mediocre earnings, eco reports trigger deeper declines than the one we have currently https://t.co/esTq56VbOq
Adnoc is now reducing LNG production because Strait of Hormuz is shut, tightening the global gas market 🇦🇪 ⚠️ Adnoc has “made temporary operational adjustments to production of Liquefied Natural Gas” They’re working with customers to fulfill commitments “wherever possible” https://t.co/dLBNlgiLER
Global M2 money supply growth has started to slow down rapidly. This is very, very bad for #BTC, according to Alphractal. https://t.co/EwfF9aiMFn
The ECB is on alert for the fallout on prices from the Iran war, Vice President Luis de Guindos says https://t.co/mBZf91bF2R https://t.co/r2eRoCGCC4
1/4 I am a little surprised by these comments from the governor of the PBoC. According to Yicai, yesterday he said that "the world’s major deficit countries are the same as 40 years ago because of the inherent flaws in the...
Because of the US-Israeli war on Iran, Switzerland has suspended military exports to the United States. TRUMP = A MASTERCLASS IN CREATING ENEMIES. https://t.co/dQ6lG3KAgS
This is perhaps the reason why the US dollar has failed to rally meaningfully amidst today's market carnage. It's likely also the key reason behind the collapse in gold prices.
This is what stagflation looks like - high interest rates, inflation (often caused by high energy prices) along with negative economic growth We are 100% there if you ask me
Through the first 3 weeks of the US-Israel war on Iran, the Iranian rial has demonstrated surprising resilience. It has APPRECIATED 12% against the USD. https://t.co/eDotRHK77c
How do you manage inflation when it’s driven by climate disasters and overseas fuel shocks? #energysky -- via Renew Economy: https://t.co/tJ9mprNoR3 https://t.co/PGFvKK16pt
Lots of emphasis on rising fertilizer prices in the US but food is a small part of budgets in the developed world. It's around 40% of the CPI basket in Bangladesh, Thailand, Ghana and Nigeria. That's 500 MILLION people. https://t.co/g5gtlNlsWN...
"NATO VOWS TO REOPEN HORMUZ" is wildly overstated @DeItaone What NATO chief Mark Rutte actually said was allies are talking about ways to reopen Hormuz He added he is "absolutely convinced" they can succeed. At talking & coordinating What EU does best #NATO #MarkRutte...
The LNG shock is about to get real The last Gulf cargoes loaded before the war are now arriving After that, Europe & Asia hit the wall This is a major structural shock that may last years https://t.co/Dw60mbEoxn #LNG #Hormuz #Qatar #Pakistan #Bangladesh #Taiwan #EnergyCrisis...
On intensity, absolutely true. I think the overall effect will be less than the energy shocks of the 1970s if this ends **today** but if the Hormuz stoppage stretches out for months it'll blow the other two out of the water.
Gulf insecurity can serve U.S. LNG and geopolitical interests, writes @anasalhajji This is an alternative view that should be taken seriously My take is that it goes too far in treating strategic benefit as proof of strategic design The blowback to the...
The run-up in energy prices is making a very awkward Fed transition even more fraught. This was already complicated. Kevin Warsh's confirmation is stalled by the DOJ probe and the Tillis blockade. Plus, unlike every incoming Fed chair since Volcker, Warsh...
Based on my understanding, Beijing will try its best to mediate the conflict for the sake of its own economic interests, but the probability of it extending a security guarantee to Iran is extremely low. China’s foreign policy remains fundamentally anchored...
Seeing a narrative going around that gold is selling off because everyone is getting liquidated. Please. If that were the case, people would be selling stocks first. Gold is leading the downside. To me, this still looks like a market pricing in an extremely...
[MUST READ] Iran’s Kharg Island - U.S. seizure would not necessarily end exports or re-open the Strait: https://t.co/yRYH1g1UAM
Sri Lanka has denied a US request to land fighter jets for Trump’s Iran war. TRUMP & THE US = COLLECTING ENEMIES BY THE BUSHEL. https://t.co/zyC7L7xJau
And Indian tanker has reportedly paid in Chinese yuan. Welcome to the #petroYuan market (thanks donald)
What is the managed approach to trade that Donald Trump's administration is seeking with China, as both sides work towards the US president's potential meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in the coming weeks? What is a 'Board of Trade'? https://t.co/7KSQgnuNxR
Had a short window to record this as we go live this Monday. Just to show: markets are in really bad shape this Monday. Japan and Korea are down 3-4% https://t.co/qr5MVM9jzS
More evidence of Asian counties performing a LNG-to-coal fuel switch: Thailand has reactivated two coal-fired units that had been mothballed. The switch is important to put a lid on global LNG (and European gas) prices. https://t.co/qqyd5NrZQ8
My March public newsletter is now available, and discusses to what extent the war on Iran may impact the "gradual print" scenario. Enjoy: https://t.co/4hDx5MSKSS https://t.co/tKqORqDF4D
In 1973, US debt/GDP was 31%...today it's 122%. US fiscal deficit/GDP was 1%...today, it's 6% on its way to 8-10% (or more if the war drags on.) Translation: "That 70s Show" will feel like "1980s Argentina with US characteristics."
Polymarket, a large prediction market, shows only a 28% chance that the Strait of Hormuz will open for normal traffic by the end of April. TRUMP & NETANYAHU’S WAR ON IRAN = MASSIVE COSTS. https://t.co/slk6gIZTUJ
It's good to have eyes wide open...just in case Crash Risk: 2008-Type Waterfall Level Is Here Rising oil, yields & dollar are increasing market stress. VIX has a persistent bid. A key $SPX level could trigger either a bounce OR a sharp "2008-style"...
"Iran is going after the petrodollar system" Brother, they've already shut in 10 million barrels per day of Gulf crude oil production capacity. What petro?
The Financial Times’ Katie Martin: “It is hard, in that environment, to pick the market moves that really matter. This week’s wild ride in UK government bonds is, I think, one of them. It is an early warning sign of...
The U.S. is accumulating enemies faster than you can shake a stick. Chinese President Xi SEES AN OPENING. Xi has made a new push the renminbi to be a global reserve currency. https://t.co/qMpgMEp3Fo
I mostly agree w/@biancoresearch here. Covid, tariffs and Iran all had elements of supply shock. Covid's came with a demand shock too so inflation dominated Fed response. Tariffs were 2-sided; Fed first prioritized inflation, then growth. w/oil, will prob prioritize...
1/4 Yesterday I posted the thread below arguing that the market is repricing an inflation shock, not a recession scare. 10-year yields are rising, bond volatility is exploding, inflation expectations are jumping, and Fed pricing has swung from cuts toward hikes. Follow up...
DXY up 3% in a month on safe-haven demand. Oil up 50%. Dollar up AND oil up simultaneously. Emerging markets are getting crushed from both sides. This is the squeeze nobody is modeling. https://t.co/xogAtPGq0m
By what? Giving waver to Putin to sell his oil freely at prices we have not see since 2022? 😉
Price increases since the start of the Iran war... European Natural Gas: +85% Heating Oil: +80% Brent Crude Oil: +54% Urea: +48% WTI Crude Oil: +46% Gasoline: +44% Diesel: +42% Sulfur: +25% Coal: +24% Fertilizer: +23% Palm Oil: +13% US Natural Gas: +8% Iron Ore: +7% Rice: +7%
Joke's on you - anyone that has owned LT USTs for the past 10 years has already had their purchasing power destroyed (ZB priced in gold down ~80% since global CB's stopped buying USTs on net in 3q14 & ramped...
Hong Kong’s inflation rate comes in at 1.7%/yr in February, JUST A TAD below its de facto 2%/yr inflation target. Hong Kong’s Dollar-Based Currency Board is WORKING LIKE A CHARM. https://t.co/Q0L3lNddlP
“Growth is lower, not just for one quarter. It stays lower throughout all of 2026 and all of 2027.” In English: this isn’t a blip. It’s a persistent hit to jobs, incomes, and the economy’s trajectory.
