Chinese Predatory Policies Trouble More Than Just the U.S.
Oh well wait will you look at this? It's not just the U.S. that has issues with Chinese predatory policy. https://t.co/mi5QZ0ghh9
S&P Hits Record, Barely Climbs, Tightest Range
Fresh record high for the $SPX, but an absolute crawl with just a 0.1% advance and the smallest daily trading range since January 27th. Partly returning to the dead conditions before the US-Iran conflict, partly anticipation of FOMC and Mag...
Sachs: Killing Iran's Leader Won’t Stop Nuclear Ambitions
Prof. Jeff Sachs on the propaganda surrounding Iran’s quest for nuclear weapons: "If you wanted to make sure that Iran doesn't have nuclear weapons, you wouldn't kill the leader [Khamenei] that declared they were against [Islam]. That's the first thing [Israel]...
Iran-U.S. Deal Prospects Fade as Blockade Persists
Prospects Dimming On Iran-U.S. Deal To Open Strait, End War Tehran has delivered a new offer to Washington that is unlikely to move the needle as blockade aims to cripple Iran's oil infrastructure. https://t.co/r0pwd4rNEh
Fed Prioritizes Blame Avoidance Over True Price Stability
Fed watchers treat every print like it’s gospel. Newsflash: the Fed is a political institution wearing an economist costume. If you think they’re optimizing for “price stability” you haven’t been paying attention. They optimize for avoiding blame. That’s why policy lags reality… and why...
Canada's $25bn Fund Ranks 53rd Globally
Would make it the 53rd largest sovereign wealth fund behind Poland's PFR - a small sum from Canada, which is the 11th largest country by GDP.
Europe Faces $32 B Extra Energy Costs From US‑Israel War
Since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran, European countries have been forced to pay $32 BILLION MORE for oil and gas imports, according to the European Commission US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN = MASSIVE COLLATERAL DAMAGE. https://t.co/KypyJy56DS
U.S. Seeks Eritrea Ties for Red Sea Strategic Foothold
According to the WSJ, the US is looking to re-engage with Eritrea, a FAILED STATE that borders the Red Sea. This is all about gaining a footprint on the Red Sea shipping routes and the Bab al-Mandeb chokepoint. IT HAS NOTHING TO...
Commodities Surge to New Inflation Cycle Highs
Long Commodities, as an Asset Class, is punching out new Inflation Cycle Highs today https://t.co/b3IHwlmsy8
Hormuz Closure Would Upend Global Finance and Economics
If they pull this off with the Strait of Hormuz closed for say 3+ months you can throw out everything you know about finance/economics https://t.co/nPZzQHiw9o
Stablecoins Could Slash $60 B Remittance Fees
An estimated $60 billion was spent on remittance fees in 2025. This could be almost zero with stablecoins.
Fed Banks' Deferred Losses Could Delay Treasury Payments Past 2030
Great note from @billnelson2x2. Each Fed bank has its own deferred asset, a cumulative sum of its losses. It has to be repaid before remittances can be sent to Treasury. Some Fed banks will be paying them off long past...
Fertilizer Price Spike Fuels US Farmer Bankruptcies, Calls for Lawsuits
US farmers' bankruptcies are SKYROCKETING. The US-Israeli war on Iran has caused prices of fertilizer to SOAR during the spring planting season. US FARMERS SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR DAMAGES TO TRUMP AND NETANYAHU. https://t.co/nMexGTOEtY
War‑driven Urea Loss Fuels Food Price Surge
Wars are inflationary... Urea output lost translates to higher food prices. And this is even before factoring in the full impact of rising fertilizer and plastics prices.
Germany’s Output Fell; Economy Can’t Ignore 7‑10% Oil Loss
A chart that discredits two current common views at once: 1. "Germany output didn't suffer during the 2022 oil/energy shock." 2. "The global economy can do just fine without 7-10% of its oil supplies indefinitely." https://t.co/ghhZPrhApE
Rubio: Iran Won’t Control Access to Hormuz Strait
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Hormuz: “If what they mean by opening the straits is, ‘yes, the straits are opened, as long as you coordinate with Iran, get our permission, or we will blow you up and you...
Dalio Warns Warsh's Fed Appointment Would Risk Premature Rate Cuts
Ray Dalio thinks “it would be a mistake” if Kevin Warsh comes to the Fed and tries to cut rates now https://t.co/WruNFHVCli
Iran Conflict Drains U.S. $2 B Daily, Hits Trillion
Wars are inflationary... The war in Iran costs America two billion dollars each day, says war budgeting expert Linda Bilmes—and will cost at least one trillion overall. https://t.co/ThflbSxlHF
Swiss Central Bank’s $1T Balance Sheet Fuels Market Power
Interesting article on some of the implications of the Swiss National Bank's massive balance sheet (worth roughly $1 trillion, mostly due to years of FX interventions) https://t.co/fUDrbynA3y
US Oil and Gas Exports Surge, Europe Leads Demand
US oil and gas exports are booming, especially in Europe. More on this in the Chartbook Top Links today. https://t.co/W3YGHCpF3J
Growth Slowdown, Not Inflation, Will Be the Next Shock
Contrarian take: the next shock won’t be inflation. It’ll be growth rolling over while everyone’s still fighting ghosts.
Dollar Drops 10% Post‑tariffs; Another Currency Soars
The US dollar is down 10% since the US began employing tariffs... what currency rise?
Supreme Court Refunds Blocked; Trump Tariffs Act as Sales Tax
The New York Times reports that American consumers will not receive a dime of Pres. Trump's tariffs refunds, which were ordered by the Supreme Court. TRUMP'S TARIFFS = A SALES TAX ON AMERICAN CONSUMERS. https://t.co/PQicw18r53
Hormuz Closure Sparks Unpriced Supply Shock, Markets Stagnant
the Hormuz has been closed for 58 days with no end in sight, and even if there was one, it would take 6 months to clear the mines while insurance companies stay risk-off. Supply shocks are still not priced in....
AI‑driven Growth Outpaces Bond Market Optimism
Thrilled to have @BasilHalperin join the podcast. Three big points discussed: (1) AI could supercharge growth, but bond markets aren’t buying the hype as evidence by real interest rates; (2) inflation targeting not an optimal response to AI supercharged growth......
Tariffs, AI, and Geopolitics Spark US Manufacturing Reshoring
Featured article (Winter 2026 | pp. 27–30): Rebuilding Industrial Manufacturing in the U.S. Tariffs + AI + geopolitical risk are fueling a resurgence - and changing where and how manufacturing scales. https://t.co/8ihmbEjXfb #Manufacturing #SupplyChain #AI #Reshoring https://t.co/CYVRErAudu
Yield‑Yen Trade‑off Fuels Accelerating Inflation Pressure
Yields and yen are most important here. Policymakers have been suppressing 5% US 30yr and 160 USDJPY at the cost of increasing inflation. Inflation pressures are now boiling at a faster rate and will force policymakers to choose one or...
Dollar System Stays Strong Despite Waning US Empire
The US empire may be weakening, but the dollar system is not Eurodollars are offshore credit money. Petrodollars are oil-trade recycling. Confusing them leads to major misunderstanding The dollar may not always dominate but it is getting stronger for now https://t.co/gb9CDsInFw
Tech Balkanization Accelerates Amid US‑China Power Struggles
US forced China to sell TikTok. China stops acquisition of Manus. Strategic tech warfare. Balkanization of tech continues.
Trump Highlights Ascension Island's Role in Falklands Victory
In my latest piece for The Blind Spot, I explore how Donald Trump may be seeking to remind Britain just how pivotal US-backed access to Ascension Island was to its ability to retake the Falklands. And what really underpins the...
Mali Ranks Surprisingly Happy Amid Misery, Security Threatens
Out of 178 countries on Hanke's 2025 Misery Index, Mali ranks as the 26th happiest on Earth. Low bank lending rates, unemployment, inflation, and moderate GDP/ capita growth explain it. But recent al-Qaeda-linked attacks, the largest since 2012, could throw that into...
Diplomacy Stalls, Investors Hold Off on Bullish Oil Bets
U.S./Iran diplomacy makes funds wary of adding bullish oil positions Investors made no significant changes to their positions across crude oil and refined fuels last week as indirect diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iran continued but appeared to make...
Retail Sales Plunge to 1983 Low, Government Under Fire
Wow - just seen that CBI Retail sales number for April Minus 68, lowest since 1983. Slow handclap for this government.
Iran's Economy Stable, Matching Israel's Growth Pre-War
Contrary to the Western media spinners, who often fail to look at the data, the Iranian economy was not collapsing prior to the US-Israeli war on Iran. Indeed, its growth profile was not too much different than Isreal’s. https://t.co/Sag1AJGrAn
Iran Holds Control of Strait of Hormuz, Despite Trump
Contrary to Pres. Trump's statements, CONTROL of the STRAIT OF HORMUZ is in IRAN'S HANDS and will probably remain so. IRAN REMAINS LOCKED AND LOADED. https://t.co/1t3JKif6Ny
China’s Rare‑Earth Leverage Threatens U.S. Global
China. Leverage with rare earths. Trump-Xi meeting. Will Strait of Hormuz weaken Trump’s position? So Xi can get Taiwan. And/or will a G2 arise? What would others on both sides do then? Trade? Supply chains?
Trump's Hormuz Blockade Intensifies Historic Shipping Crisis
Trump’s Hormuz Blockade Has Deepened A Historic Shipping Crisis. Does Trump have a strategy? https://t.co/RuMdezwXBM
War Drives Brent Futures to New 2026 High
What is the long-term impact of this war? A good measure might be to look at deferred futures contracts. The blue line is the December 2026 Brent Crude Oil Futures contract. It made a new high today, holding its uptrend, and up...
Hormuz Shipping Traffic Stays Low, No US‑Iran Deal
Shipping Traffic Through Hormuz Remains Muted With No US-Iran Deal in Sight, Data Shows. And the global economic and supply chain effects as this drags on? https://t.co/dRthOukXrK
China’s Engineered Global Dependency Redefines Leadership Rules
Every few years, the world shifts in ways that most leaders don't see until it's too late. I wrote China's 90% Model because this is one of those moments. What's happening isn't a trade dispute. It's a systematic engineering of global...
Coupon UST Auctions Surge Ahead as Front‑End Pressure Eases
With FOMC on Wed, coupon UST auctions pulled ahead with double trouble today (2s and 5s). A bit of front-end pressure overnight that seems to be easing. Should go well with Warsh's nomination back on track
China Outspends India on Everything Except Freebies
🇨🇳 CHINA VS INDIA 🇮🇳 China GDP: $20.85 trillion Education budget: $900 Billion (5% of GDP) Healthcare budget: $1.2 Trillion (6% of GDP) Sports budget: $540 Billion (2.5% of GDP) R&D budget: $560 Billion (2.6% of GDP) Freebees budget: $15 Billion (0.08% of GDP) India GDP:...
EU Should Fix Russia Transshipments, Not Confront US
It's understandable the EU doesn't like getting talked down to by the US. But the solution to that isn't picking fights with the US. It's being honest about what isn't working and fixing that. The flood of transshipments to Russia...
Export Controls Spike US Gas, Favor International Oil Stocks
What if Trump reinstates oil export controls before the midterms? Gas prices are going vertical, the Iran War is unpopular and Republican midterm odds are falling. The surest way to lower prices at the pump is to keep more barrels at...
EU’s Surplus Driven by Ireland’s Tax Tricks, Not Trade
Indeed, without Ireland (tax avoiding US Pharma MNEs) the EU customs surplus disappears. the EU should be thought of similarly to Japan; its current account surplus (ex Ireland) comes from investment income not trade 1/2
Data Shows Calm Amid Market Noise
Four months into the year, markets have been anything but quiet. Headlines around oil prices, geopolitics, and inflation anxiety continue to dominate the narrative, but beneath the noise, the data tells a very different story. https://t.co/LttZXnif1R
Rising Inventories Boost China's Q1 GDP Despite Weak Demand
Many analysts have wondered how to reconcile China’s stronger-than-expected GDP growth in the first quarter of 2026 with the relative weakness observed in growth in retail sales, fixed investment, and net exports. In my latest piece, I argue that a...
US Investor Flight Temporarily Fuels Dollar, Soon to Fade
Whenever there are bad shocks, US investors bring money back home, which temporarily boosts the Dollar. That happened in 2008, 2020, 2025 and is what's going on now. Current Dollar strength is temporary and will fade as soon as there's...
Critical Week Ahead: Compelling Signals Emerging Now
NEW POST A critical week ahead. Some extremely compelling signals building. *If you’re new to our work, take a look… it will be worth your time. https://t.co/xwqjpBxIll
Europe's Near‑Zero Growth Heightens Recession Risk Amid Energy Shock
Recession risk in Europe is rising. The 2022 energy shock after Russia's invasion of Ukraine was bigger, but growth into that shock was higher as we were coming off the COVID rebound. Now growth is near zero and this shock...