London’s Eurodollar Rise Stemmed From Belgian, French Rejection
🏴☠️1/ If what I think is happening is really happening, then I can make some predictions. Especially about incoming European problems. But first an important side story, which also relates to the “special relationship”. What a lot of people don’t know is that when Minos Zombanakis, the father of the Eurodollar market, started looking for a hub for his offshore dollar operation in Europe, he originally hoped Brussels not London would be its base. That’s because Brussels was the home of NATO. This was not to be. As Andrew Hilton (city veteran) once told me, the Belgian central bank refused to give approval. Zombanakis next turned to Paris, but the BdF also rejected him. Finally, he turned to London. As Hilton tells the story “they [aka the BoE] didn’t put any obstacles in his way.” The rest, as they say, is history. London Eurodollar clearing became a trillion dollar business, over which Brexit fights would eventually be fought. In no time at all Stanley Yassukovich (at the time representing investment bank White Weld), as well as a number of other American banks, got approvals to set up euromarket operations in the square mile. Why did no other central banks want to say yes? Officially, they were concerned about financial stability. In reality, they knew what a dollar tap in their jurisdictions signified for their own monetary sovereignty. Their currencies would never be their own again, because European corps would always find it more cost effective to fund in dollars. This was all the more the case in any economy operating a dirigiste policy. They feared price discovery through competition. Eurodollars didn’t just bypass monetary control — they undermined the system of domestically captive finance that governments relied on, raising funding costs and exposing fiscal policy to external market discipline. It also translated to pressure on the gold price in ways that increasingly drained reserves. Which brings us back to the special relationship. Why did London say yes when nobody else would? Probably because it had no choice. It was just after Suez, which made the nature of capital flows and dependencies abundantly clear.
China Bans Meta-Manus Deal, Highlighting US‑China Business Strain
China’s Ban on Meta-Manus Deal Shows Strains in U.S.-China Business Ties—National-security concerns are increasingly weighing on commercial ties @hannahmiao_ https://t.co/8u5gYXWhtZ https://t.co/8u5gYXWhtZ
China's Export‑driven Model Collapses Under Security Costs
China built its entire economic model based on the principle that exports were universal. That model is crumbling as countries realized they hollowed out their manufacturing base and eroded their own national security in the process. China was the biggest...

US Bans Chip Tool Shipments to Huahong's Facilities
The U.S. ordered numerous chip equipment companies to halt tool shipments to two facilities of Huahong, China’s second-largest chipmaker, according to sources. https://t.co/9lzUXgpLQr
Gas Prices Set to Dominate Economic Conversation
Yesterday, I got a haircut. After basic pleasantries, the barber (who knows I'm a lawyer but doesn't know much else) asked me how high I thought gas prices will go and whether it would hurt the economy. Friends,...
Global Economy Inching Toward a Massive Oil Shock
Haven’t seen lines like this since airlines in March 2020 It really does seem to me that the whole world is sleepwalking into a massive oil shock. Would be delighted to be wrong. What am I missing?
2020‑Peak US Bonds Lose 30‑50% Real Value
If you bought 10 year US bonds near the peak in 2020, on an after inflation basis, you're still down 30% six years later. If you bought 30 year US bonds instead, you're down over 50%.
Putin’s Power Play: Russian Yacht Defies Hormuz
Flex from Putin. How to tell Trump you hold the cards without saying it. Russian superyacht Nord sails through Strait of Hormuz despite blockade - BBC News https://share.google/Rfioe7Vn4DAz26Uul

Putin's Approval Plummets as Russia’s Economy Crumbles
Putin's Approval Hits Four-Year Low, Whatever that’s worth: • Approval dropped to 67%, the first decline in four years of the full-scale war. • Russia's economy contracted by 1.8% in January and February 2026. • The budget deficit for Q1 2026 has already...
Defying OPEC Quotas Invites Invasion, UAE Demands Guarantees
Probably worth reminding that the last time a gulf state defied opec quotas in the context of damages from a wider regional war with Iran, it also got invaded. Context was that after the Iran–Iraq War, Iraq was heavily indebted and...
UAE Exits OPEC After Six Decades, Reshaping Oil Market
JUST IN: The UAE has left OPEC after 59 years. Oil will never be the same. Here's what's happening and why it matters:
Blockade Leaves Hundreds of Ships Stalled, Hurting Trade
US Central Command. With blockade, the number of ships stuck at Chah Bahar port. The impact on trade and the economy.

Yemen's Soaring Borrowing Costs Push It to 13th miseryYemen's Soaring Borrowing Costs Push It to 13th Misery
In Hanke’s 2025 Annual Misery Index, Yemen ranks as the 13TH MOST MISERABLE country in the world. SKY-HIGH BORROWING COSTS = ECONOMIC MISERY. https://t.co/LX3r9vDWeG
UAE Exit Leaves OPEC with Minimal Market Power
With the UAE exit, OPEC has officially lost most influence it still had over global oil markets... Full analysis available exclusively for Analyst Tier members on Patreon ➡️ https://t.co/Es6KeSByiI #opec #crudeoil #geopolitics https://t.co/UIfE0geRBI
US Farm Groups Outline USMCA Priorities on RealAgRadio
I gained some great insights from US farm groups and industry associations on USMCA this week in DC.
German Chancellor Says US Humiliated by Iran
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said Monday that the U.S. is being “humiliated” by the Iranian regime I asked @MikeFroman Whose side is Germany on?

China Maintains Oil Imports Amid US‑Israeli Conflict
Since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran, China has not drawn been forced to draw down its inventories of oil. China has obviously been able to import oil at a normal pace. CHINA IS WINNING. https://t.co/Wg0kqvLybI

Survey Flags High Credit Risk, yet IG Spreads Stay Low
In @steveliesman FOMC survey, 70% of respondents labeled systemic credit risk as "extremely elevated or "somewhat elevated." How can you possibly square that with IG credit spreads 80bps in the bottom quintile? https://t.co/1lJyASMnM1

Mortgage Rates Dip, Spread Widens to 202 Bps
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate today: 6.38% Same day last year: 6.82% -------------------- 10-year Treasury yield today: 4.36% Spread today: 202 bps
Rate Hikes Can't Curb Energy Inflation, only Damage Growth
BOJ & ECB can't resolve energy-driven inflation shocks with rate hikes. But it can pull forward demand destruction, lower economic growth, and soverieign debt "issues". https://t.co/TQeDyoABBd
UAE Exits OPEC; Canada Should Optimize Existing Oil Assets First
The Beginning of the End? UAE Leaves OPEC Message for Canada is to proceed cautiously, optimizing existing oil and LNG assets before building new ones. #cdnpoli https://markhamhislop.substack.com/p/the-beginning-of-the-end-uae-leaves

Russia's Economy Outperforms Western Narratives; Ukraine Declines Since 2008
Contrary to the Western press, the Russian economy has done reasonably well since 2008. Russia has held its own, while on the other hand, Ukraine's economy is worse today than in 2008. HANKE'S 95% RULE = 95% OF WHAT YOU READ IN...

Philippines Dividend Yield Hits Record, JP Morgan to Index Bonds
The Philippines' stock market is so depressed that its dividend yield is back to Lehman collapse levels. At 3.22%, the country's dividend yield is now more than two percentage points higher than the US, marking a record in a multi-decade...

Hormuz Insurance Remains Critical Amid Global Energy Turmoil
⭕️UAE Exits OPEC: Implications for Global Oil Markets ⭕️Oil & LNG Tankers Transit Hormuz: What About Insurance? ⭕️The Media Hype Around Iran’s Oil Storage Situation ⭕️Aramco OSPs: Will They Lower the Premium? ⭕️Malacca Strait: The Next Flashpoint? ⭕️EU Jet Fuel Crisis: One Among Many ⭕️Vietnam to...

Treasury Warns Banks: Chinese Refineries Buying Iranian Oil Risk Sanctions
US Treasury publishes an "alert," warning banks about the sanctions risks of dealing with independent Chinese oil refineries ('teapot') due to their purchases of Iranian oil. (I have my doubts about the efficiency of the alert, considering yuan-based payment for Iranian...
OPEC Needed as Price Anchor in Dollar‑driven World
OPEC is only needed to manage oil prices in a world where the reserve currency has no other anchor, because only a fool would sell finite oil reserves for infinite (non-gold-backed) dollars. IMO, this may be a big signal, but perhaps...
UAE and Qatar, Both Ex‑OPEC, Deepen Energy Ties
Surely a coincidence this happened today (😇): The country leaving OPEC meets the country that left OPEC.

AI Accelerates Economic Shift: Data-Driven Insights
AI is changing the economy faster than anything before it. But what does the data actually say? Horizon Investments just dropped a great macro deck. Here are the key AI data points 🧵 https://t.co/tdY7YosR9w
Hormuz Strait Disruption Redefines Global Shipping Risks
Supply chain risk is global. Deutsche Welle (DW) covers how the Strait of Hormuz disruption is reshaping shipping and trade conditions. https://t.co/I1DnvYEyA5 #SupplyChain #Logistics #Geopolitics #Resilience
Cutting Iran's Cash Starves Militia, Despite High US Gas
I'm in the camp that says there'll be a good outcome. If you go back in history and look at what really is the pain point, it's gasoline prices US domestic above $6. In order to do that, you need...
Iran’s Hormuz Move Tests Japan‑US Alliance
The Nissho Maru broke in 1953 an oil trading embargo that the UK had unilaterally imposed on Iran. Today, another Japanese ship, also owned by the same oil refiner, exited the Strait of Hormuz. Quite the message by the Iranians —...

USDCAD Slides to Critical Support, Inflection Risk Looms
Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Plunges to Key Support- Inflection Risk Builds https://t.co/LSQyqXWiUm $USDCAD Weekly Chart https://t.co/PN82OfQcjl

Earnings Power Drives Market to New Highs Amid Conflict
Why didn't the stock market fall further in the face of a war in the Middle East and an oil price spike? Why are we already back at new all-time highs? In a word -- earnings https://t.co/qfWzRKurxU https://t.co/2MrOBldvIL
UAE's OPEC Exit Signals Broader Regional Power Struggle
uae is withdrawing from opec. what looks like energy politics is something deeper. a fight over the region’s future. @gzeromedia.com
Kharg Island: Predictable Choke Point in Iran's Oil Exports
Controlling Iranian oil exports was a foreseeable base case strategy (see video below). Discussing the war’s surprises and investment ideas at 2pm on @cnbc with @SullyCNBC and @KellyCNBC @vaneck_us @matthew_sigel Kharg Island is a 'choke point' for Iran's oil...
UK Envoy Says Israel Is America's True Special Relationship
America’s special relationship is ‘probably Israel’, says UK ambassador to US - https://t.co/IUN9ug0fUY via @FT

US Net Worth Grew Despite Trade Deficits and Debt
"If trade deficits drain wealth from a country, Americans’ average real net worth would have fallen over the past half-century. Instead, even after accounting for growing government debt, it has risen significantly." 😮https://t.co/wSOVetCaRD https://t.co/XpLuGw8lgY

Markets Mirror 1990 Gulf War Oil Drawdown
The market continues to trade along the 1990 Gulf War analog, presumably betting on a quick reversal from the current oil spike. The valuation drawdown of 18% has been a spitting image of the 19% drawdown back in 1990. Let’s...

Argentina Ranks Fifth Most Miserable in 2025 Misery Index
#ARGWatch🇦🇷: Since 2008, Argentina’s economy has STAYED IN THE TANK. The world’s biggest deadbeat ranks as the FIFTH MOST MISERABLE COUNTRY IN THE WORLD in Hanke’s 2025 Annual Misery Index. https://t.co/IeCxAgBkdB

One‑Third of Texas Manufacturers Hurt by Iran War
New Dallas Fed survey of Texas manufacturers finds 34.8% of them have already been harmed by the Iran war, while only 11.1% have benefited. https://t.co/CsufgIXUuK https://t.co/BtxluTws5f

Trimmed Mean Inflation Reveals Rising Price Pressures
Latest from @_vikasbp & me: So You Want to Talk About Trimmed Mean Inflation? Warsh has latched onto trimmed mean PCE as his favored gauge If the goal isn't just cherry picking, word to the wise: trimmed mean also signals elevated & rising...
Demand Collapse, Not Supply, Drives Oil Market Shock
UAE leaving OPEC to pump more won’t save this market. Demand will break before supply does. Even with Hormuz open, we’re not going back to “normal.” This isn’t Kansas, Toto—it’s the other side of the shock to end all shocks. https://t.co/iSdVUiOkGq #OOTT...
UAE Exits OPEC to Boost Production, Accept Lower Prices
REACTION COLUMN: Why is the UAE leaving OPEC? The announcement has little to do with the US-Iran war; the exit road started in Riyadh, with a detour in Texas. It's all about the UAE wanting to pump more oil, even at the...

ECB Inaction Could Erode Short‑term Euro Bond Yields
If the ECB does not deliver the almost 70 basis points, or 0.7 percentage points, of rate hikes that markets expect this year, the current yields on short-term European government bonds may not stick around https://t.co/QLIVYNAWdI https://t.co/Te5FjKUzWR
Swap Lines Reveal Preference for USD Over De‑Dollarization Pain
The existence of Swap Lines is all the proof you need that countries would rather deal with the Pain of being beholden to the USD system than to deal with the Pain that De-Dollarization requires. https://t.co/ejftsuboEK

BOJ's Non‑hawkish Stance Forces USD/JPY to 160
Some comical headlines post-BOJ meeting. Absolutely nothing about the meeting was hawkish. They have to let 160 USDJPY go. https://t.co/aakxIf0ppd

2022‑23 Market Gains ~20% Real Return, No Bubble
Since the beginning of 2022, the stock market is up a little over 20% adjusted for inflation. That's a decent return but hardly in bubble territory. https://t.co/u8xJ9WpKcw

Bolivia’s Misery Jumps to 28th, Urging Dollarization
In Hanke’s 2025 Annual Misery Index, Bolivia ranks as the 28TH MOST MISERABLE COUNTRY GLOBALLY. Bolivia is 2025’S BIGGEST DETERIORATION, collapsing from 75th most miserable in 2024 to 28th out of 178 countries in 2025. BOLIVIA = DOLLARIZATION OVERDUE. https://t.co/CWv1vi9uVc

China’s Housing Collapse Erases Two Decades of Savings
I meant what I said: China is terrified of a global recession, and if Iran doesn’t capitulate, that’s exactly what we’ll get. Chinese home prices, representing the savings of the Chinese people, have erased all the gains of the past...

Prevailing Belief: 5% Inflation From GFC to Pre‑Covid
Pretty wild that from the GFC through pre-Covid, folks thought inflation would be 5% https://t.co/NTWRmpY7nk