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Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
Sulphur prices now up 40% since before the Iran War Unlike oil, the sulphur market was already in severe deficit https://t.co/gMiE3tcho5
Macro: ZAR down 1.7% as a firm USD pressures EM FX. Key: stronger dollar despite improved SA leading indicator. Risk: Iran headlines could spike oil and force risk-off. Trade: short ZAR/USD on USD momentum 📉 — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More...
@housingwire @sarahteresa6 We try to explain the madness if this week with #mortgagerates #oil and #bonds with this conflict. #economics #chartdaddy
This is how you begin to destroy demand. Much more will be necessary if the Strait doesn't reopen soon.
$DXY firm + oil firm is the combo nobody wants to model. It’s a slow tax on margins that shows up AFTER the ‘soft landing’ victory lap. https://t.co/ocSH3ICv0N
Exports have been falling since 2022. In normal times, one would expect symmetric growth in exports and imports, (offsetting contributions). The recent decline in exports is thus unusual https://t.co/KYVDyKfsJI
UST and IG supply will be an added headwind for rates this week. The whole curve is trading above the Fed's overnight target range as rate cuts go on pause for now and hedging for a near term rate increase...
Finnish jobless rate continues to climb as the economy stays subdued https://t.co/kdTQxPFb9w via @KirsiHeikel https://t.co/R0C84aG7pw
BRUSSELS, March 24 (Reuters) - The European Union does not have a new date to communicate regarding its plan to fully phase out Russian oil, previously scheduled for April 15, Commission spokesperson Anna-Kaisa Itkonen said on Tuesday.
Is the Strait of Hormuz still closed and will the global oil industry drain down ~15 million barrels of petroleum stocks outside the Middle East today alone because of it? https://t.co/YQqTHgKaN9
Joseph Gagnon: "The most persistent driver of US deficits is the attractiveness of US financial assets to foreign investors owing to the central role of the dollar in international transactions and to the perceived safety and creativity of US financial...
Fake News Saved The Market My morning rant Monday. Strong opinions held strongly.🙃 The short-covering bounce driven by headlines & algos, not fundamentals, doesn't change the fact: IRAN RISK IS NOT PRICED IN. $SPX $6666 –6718 as $DXY falls won't save us as yields...
This chart really says it all from Torsten Slock. The volatility controllers will do anything in their power to get these rates down or things could really snowball in the wrong direction. Can't wait to see what acronyms come out of the...
and when you find yourself thinking that rates/yields are high, just remember, they're not... they rose for 40 years... they fell for 38 years... they bottomed (big time), almost 6 years ago... https://t.co/6tRJ9pYxtQ
Why the war in the Middle East will have long term impacts on energy prices and our energy security. I talked to TRT World last night. https://t.co/Tia1QYZDBJ
Gasoline, Diesel Price Surges May Mirror 2008, 2022 - US average gasoline and diesel prices have approached the $4 and $5 a gallon thresholds, raising the prospect of greater consumer and economic stress -- and peaks akin to 2008 and...
About 25 million barrels of Iraqi Basrah crude are trapped on tankers in the Gulf. Iran claims control of the passage — so why is it blocking Iraq’s oil? Does Iran want the Iraqi government to go bancrupt? العراق: نحو...
"Australia and EU seal sensitive trade deal" https://t.co/SVt8r09Man "With U.S. President Donald Trump slamming tariffs on allies globally, Brussels and Canberra rekindled their negotiations last year." https://t.co/0jxir9qjN2
France moves to support farmers hurt by Iran war fuel spike https://t.co/LXQyz0tCcx via @nayrazz https://t.co/bjA6oRzKXS
Investing Quote of the Day: “I continue to believe that the American people have a love–hate relationship with inflation. They hate inflation but love everything that causes it.” - William E. Simon https://t.co/eO3YmqPZEG
Hard assets, Oil and Gas in a multipolar world. Financial conditions are tightening at the fastest pace since the regional bank panic of 2023, rate hikes impact already happening, the opposite of White House wants. Join us @MorningsMaria in 5....
ECB must be vigilant in face of stagflation risks, Vujcic says https://t.co/TJxut9isTf via @jaskuzmanovic https://t.co/HQiDucuNdh
The Supreme Court ruled Trump's tariffs were illegal, forcing the administration to do things...the right way. Welcome to Section 301 investigations. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/clLUiPPPhq #tariffs #trump #economy https://t.co/En6Bk5ulRD
You can run, but you can't hide: ECB to Start Fresh Checks on Banks’ Exposure to Private Credit https://t.co/nEqJE6yYDf
German Economy Minister Katherina Reiche is pushing gas companies to diversify beyond the US 🇩🇪 🚢 Reiche said Germany is also pursuing agreements with Angola, Mexico, Canada and other suppliers worldwide https://t.co/YsSeBtLmvB https://t.co/RPngivFPz4
From Indian films to Italian wine, Trump’s Iran war ripples through the world economy https://t.co/nN8qmnNvwV via @Swatisays @LouKCurtis @mniquette https://t.co/oUjyH8kZ9O
GS: We Estimate Based on Reported Vessel Counts that Average Daily Flows Through the Strait of Hormuz Are Down 98% From Their Normal Levels (4-Day Moving Average) https://t.co/af4DPzafNM
One of the foundations of the US reserve currency status is the 1970s Nixon-KSA agreement that the US provides military protection in return for recycling of Petrodollars into the US bond market. When President Trump says things like that "we...
Great conversation with Nicolai Tangen on the In Good Company podcast. From the uncertainty created by the war in the Middle East to the impact of AI and the importance of central bank independence, we covered a lot of ground. Listen...
African export restrictions on battery metals are a blow to Chinese companies that have spent billions of dollars developing mines there to dominate supplies https://t.co/yoI9r6fpaN
With the Iran conflict now in its 4th week, an important angle worth noting: President Trump’s family business (Trump Organization) has substantial licensing deals across the GCC - Trump Towers, hotels & golf resorts in Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar & Oman,...
% min until the first EZ PMIs start to trickle in for March, with ERZ6 pricing in three hikes for this year. Let's see whether the latter holds. Remember,that the PMIs will tend to import this shock as "strength" via...
Growth is accelerating, but not where most expect. Moldova is projected to lead global GDP per capita growth with +53% by 2030. Alongside countries like Guyana and Turkmenistan, emerging economies dominate the percentage rankings. But the more interesting signal is where speed meets scale. Countries...
Almost 99% of Pakistan’s LNG imports came from Qatar last year. Now, PAK import terminals are close to shutting down. Pakistan may be forced to turn to more EXPENSIVE and DIRTIER furnace oil to generate power. PAKISTAN SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR...
Xinhua: "Chinese automakers have surpassed their Japanese counterparts in global vehicle sales for the first time, marking a significant shift in the global automotive industry." https://t.co/PtNMiJISii
The US never thought through the possibility of an oil shock before its attacks, says @BarakRavid That's why it's lifting sanctions on Iran's oil That's not strategy That's trying to hide your mistakes And Iran still gets value from those barrels one way...
Now, after the third incident of price manipulation, oil prices are rising again. Bent is about $104/b.
China cuts some hi-tech metals sent to Japan – but magnet exports rise. Why? https://t.co/7TeFEq0KsX
"Takaichi Orders Review of Entire Supply Chain for Oil Products" I suspect the review will find that about 90-95% of #Japan’s oil imports come from Middle Eastern countries... https://t.co/hjPmFeOPov
One of the many lies about Iran that has been generated in Washington, D.C., and other Western capitals is that, before the current US-Israeli attack on Iran, Iran's economy was in a state of collapse. NOT TRUE. JUST TAKE A GLANCE AT...
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Venezuelan bolivar ranks as the WORLD'S WORST currency. The bolivar has depreciated by 86% against the USD over the past year. The only thing that will salvage Venezuela is DOLLARIZATION. https://t.co/HsoegSMSO1
Important nuance before assuming the stage is set for US-Iran negotiations: ❓ How unified is Iran’s top leadership at present — across the legislative branch, the military (especially the IRGC), and the religious establishment? ❓ Does Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf hold...
I’m wondering if the news media can muster up an article or report about the Strait of Hormuz, how big it is at its narrowest point and why it’s such a critically strategic waterway to oil trade…. I haven’t heard...
The world has lost nearly a billion barrels of oil production, writes @ericnuttall They're gone for good That resets the baseline for oil prices The idea that crude just slides back to $60 once the shooting stops reflects a PROFOUND IGNORANCE about...
Despite some accounts on this app implying that all oil that Iran has shipped is already sold…that is not the case. Some oil is shipped and is floating storage…to then be sold later. This does not mean the USTs...
Goldman Sachs: Brace for worldwide inflation surge. The supply shortages created with the Iran war. What will that do to demand, China & other exports, inventory, supply chains, and logistics? Especially the transportation modes.
Johns Hopkins PhD Trita Parsi is on to something. What Parsi reports helps explain why the Iranian Rial has soared by 12% against the USD during the first 3 weeks of the US-Israel war on Iran.
Ocean container imports are just starting to roll in from CNY. This index tracks container at the point of bookings, which take about 3 weeks from bookings date to hit US ports. It is updated daily. In coming weeks, we will...
GS: Over the Past 40 Years, Even Major Oil Price Shocks Did Not Leave Long-Lasting Effects on Consumer Inflation Expectations https://t.co/8naRIKCG9F
GS: We Estimate That the Boost from Commodity Price Increases to Year-Over-Year Core PCE Inflation Will Peak Around 0.35pp in 2026Q4 in Our Baseline Scenario https://t.co/e4Hp5utn1j
