Four Fed Dissenters Signal Rare Break From Easing Bias
NEW: There were *four* dissents on the Fed’s rate pause. Three bank presidents wanted to ditch the easing bias, and a governor dissented for a rate cut. The last meeting with four dissents was in 1992. https://t.co/JM88jOXIAg
China's EV Subsidies Favor Domestic over Imported Components
China also has made an art out of local content requirements (i.e. "made in China") -- remember no imported car or imported battery ever qualified for China's EV subsidy list ... 1/2
Trump's Oil Blockade Persists; SPR Releases and Export Caps Denied
I’m afraid that if President Trump really wants to continue the blockade for months while minimising the impact on US consumers, there’s only a (bad) way: more SPR releases and/or oil export restrictions. The White House has consistently said neither is...
Oil Surge Threatens US Growth, Yet Markets Remain Unfazed
Oil +7% today, 36% in last 9 trading days Brent above $119/ barrel = Highest since 2022 Gas prices $4.23 / gallon = Highest since 2022 Prices of everything will start going up - confirms we'll get HAWKISH FED HOLD
Powell’s Final Fed Meeting May Raise Guidance, but Influence Wanes
The Fed meeting is approaching, and Powell might raise guidance; we'll see. It's his last Fed meeting, so his stance won't carry as much weight. #mortgagerates #economics #chartdaddy #realestate #housing
Nervous Market Stagnates Amid Energy Crisis and Stagflation
Nervy equilibrium here ... no one wants to sell, let alone short, equities and risk being caught out by a TACO ... in the meantime the global energy structure is reeling and the macro outlook is sinking deeper into a...
Iran War Marks Trump’s First Major Economic Downturn
the iran war is the first time of trump’s presidency—in either term—that he is responsible for a major economic downturn. i don’t see any capacity (and, for now, even any intent) to turn this around before midterm elections in november.
Fed's Next Move: Markets See Zero Uncertainty
The Fed announces its next rates decision in half an hour, and there is exactly ZERO uncertainty about what it won't do (at least according to Fed Funds futures markets). https://t.co/Ikedm6uh6c
China's Overinvestment Fuels Tech and Infrastructure Success
My latest piece for Carnegie, in which I argue that the story of Chinese systematic overinvestment is fully consistent with the seemingly contradictory story of its technological achievements and great infrastructure. https://t.co/YkSsd4R8s5
Shipping Crisis Peaks: UN Tensions, $4M Panama Toll
Global Shipping Crisis: From UN Pirate Accusations to the Record $4M Panama Toll 1⃣Freedom of Navigation & UN Debate 2⃣IMO MEPC 84 & the Carbon Tax Clash 3⃣Container Sector & Schedule Reliability 4⃣Oil, LNG and UAE's OPEC Exit 5⃣Dry Bulk, Panama Canal Delays & the...
Fed Likely Mirrors BoC, Holds Steady Amid Oil Shock
For clues on how Warsh Fed might deal with the oil shock, how looking North? That's because not only is Canada a net exporter of oil, Bank of Canada's Tiff Macklem's core philosophy on monetary policy has some overlap...
Fed Policy Shift Looms: Free Full Analysis
The Daily Feather — A Change is Gonna Come — FREE in FULL https://t.co/MtgdpJJsUL #federalreserve #powell #dimartinobooth #kevinwarsh #economy https://t.co/67BwUvZ0dD
Fed Refines Max Employment Metric; Warsh’s Critique Remains Vague
Over the past 20 years, the Fed has been building a more rigorous understanding of what maximum employment means and how to pursue it. As he is about much of what the Fed does, Warsh is a vocal critic...
Higher Energy Costs Slightly Boost US Import Prices
"Our analysis shows that a 10% increase in local energy prices in a given country tends to raise US non-energy import prices from that country by about 0.5%." - GS
USD/JPY Poised for Yearly High Amid Fed Outlook
Japanese Yen Short-term Outlook: USD/JPY Bulls Eye Yearly High- Fed on Tap https://t.co/ccyORpFfkx $USDJPY Daily & 240min Charts https://t.co/E5R5glIagQ
Trump Plans Extended Iran Blockade, Shields US Consumers
President Trump discussed steps the US could take to prolong its blockade of Iran during a meeting w/ oil &trading industry executives Tuesday. Talks covered how to continue the blockade for months if needed while minimizing impacts on US consumers. https://t.co/ZSMRTr0P6N
Goldman Sachs: Non‑US Economies Face Greater Middle East Trade Risk
"Other Economies Are Much More Exposed to the Disruption of Trade with the Middle East Than the US" - GS https://t.co/ITX9QcNTWV
Germany's April Inflation Barely Rises, Core Dip Temporary
Germany’s #inflation edged up only slightly in April, rising from 2.7% to 2.9%, mainly driven by higher energy prices. So far, there are no clear signs that these higher energy costs are feeding through more broadly into other prices. Core...
Without Supply Discipline, US Shale Faces Price Collapse
In 2015 OPEC failed to do what swing producers had done since 1932 - cut under a surplus. It allowed a glut to form. In 2020, OPEC+ disunity and ramp to max exacerbated the demand collapse. In both cases...
Spain Seeks ECB Board Seat, Not for Cuerpo
Cuerpo says Spain wants an ECB board seat, but it won’t be for him https://t.co/CTzpWUPcjU via @flacqua @basteiro https://t.co/L5JRxkNcxq
Yen Breaches 160/$: Markets Test Policy Limits
It's not just oil, UK yields, etc... In fact, the pace is starting to feel a little relentless as markets blow through what I regard as various "pay attention" levels. This includes the breach of 160 ¥/$ (CNBC chart below)....
No Fed Dot Plot—FOMC Statement Takes Center Stage
There's no Fed dots today, which means that until Powell's last (and 64th—but who's counting) press conference at 2:30 pm, it's just the FOMC statement to do the heavy lifting. Here's what I'm watching: https://t.co/8sdY0wHDV8
Iran War Pushes Fed Cuts Out Past 2027
Almost three Fed rate cuts have been priced out from July 2027 meeting since beginning of Iran war. The chart below shows the implied rate for July 2027; source: Bloomberg https://t.co/sZt0N3IHO2
Venezuela and North Korea Lead Global Inflation Surge
#HankeInflationDashboard: By my measurements, this week's top 5 inflators are: 🇻🇪Venezuela — 534.9%/yr 🇰🇵North Korea — 229.9%/yr 🇮🇷Iran— 112.3%/yr 🇸🇩Sudan— 63.4%/yr 🇸🇾Syria — 45.2%/yr https://t.co/X6VMtDAGGw
Iran Conflict May Curb Growth, Not Just Spark Inflation
"Ultimately, the key question is whether the dominant effect of the Iran war is higher inflation or weaker growth. Markets have so far leaned toward the former. If the latter proves more important, investors will need to broaden their approach—seeking...
OFAC Confirms Hormuz Toll Payments May Trigger Sanctions
OFAC confirms what I’ve been been saying for weeks U.S. Treasury Warns Hormuz ‘Toll’ Payments to Iran Could Trigger Sanctions https://t.co/trxwCyJZO3
Euro's Q1 Plunge and April Rebound Signal Policy Repricing
Euro and ECB: The euro' fell nearly 1.65% in Q1, only to claw back about 1.25% in April. At one level, that looks like noise within a broader range. At another, it reflects a market that has been repeatedly and...
India's GDP Surged 9x; Slower Growth Ahead, Still Profitable
Indian GDP 📈 Year 2000: $468 Billion (USD) Year 2025: $4.19+ Trillion (USD) A 9x growth in the size in 25 years The next 25 years we won't get a similar growth rate & it will affect the stock market returns as well Be informed &...
Canada Yields Rise Independently of Recent Rate Cuts
when they tell you that Canadian rates (yields) are rising and the @bankofcanada is all to blame, just tell'em they're wrong... 5-year Canada yields bottomed in '20 (like global yields) they spent the past few years consolidating and are now moving...
UAE Leaves OPEC: Strategic Shift Explained
HOT OFF THE PRESS: My interview in @FortuneMagazine with @MrShawnTully, "Take the Money and Run": Why the UAE Quit OPEC https://t.co/VBoanrelVc
Market Eyes Powell's Future at Today's FOMC Meeting
Main thing that's relevant in today's FOMC meeting is any guidance on whether Powell plans to remain as a fed governor or not
Central Banks Maintain Strong Q1 Gold Purchases Despite War
While this captures two months pre war and while gold has likely been a source of funds for some foreign countries post war, central bank buying still strong in Q1. https://t.co/vQDtnkXVdj
Dollar Rise Triggers Endless Loop of Economic Paradoxes
The dollar is rising Why? Because bond yields are going up Why? Because Oil prices are rising Why? Because the UAE left OPEC Why? Because Trump blocked Hormuz Why? Because the dollar is falling Why? Because real interest rates are negative Why? Because inflation is rising Why? Because - Damn it - Don't you get it...
Offshore Dollar Deposits Top $14 Trillion, Dominance Grows
Despite all the noise about de-dollarization, the FT reports that offshore dollar deposits just SURPASSED 14 TRILLION DOLLARS. The dollar is FAR AHEAD of any rival and its lead is INCREASING. KING DOLLAR = REIGNS SUPREME. https://t.co/A48y0RhHY4
Markets Must Push Harder as US 10‑Year Hits
Markets need to try a lot harder if they want Trump to tap out in Iran. US 10y above 5% and 5-to-10% lower in Spoos, at least ...
War‑Driven Inflation Undermines BoC Rate Hike Effectiveness
Bank Of Canada: NO CHANGE This was a guaranteed result: there was never a doubt Bank Of Canada: NO CHANGE This was a guaranteed result: there was never a doubt It's so simple, the War In The Middle East creates inflation The BoC...
OPEC+ Collapse Threatens US Shale with Price Volatility
Au contraire, @WSJ: A fractured or absent OPEC+ is a disaster for the US oil industry and foreign policy. No OPEC+ = Wild Price Volatility = Gut punch for high-cost US shale oil, the first victim when oversupply...
Apple’s Stalling Scheme Collapses, EU Regulators Remain Paralyzed
EU regulators are currently paralyzed into inaction as Apple manipulates US trade relations to discourage Europe from enforcing its own competition law. Thankfully, Apple’s attempt to stall the US law enforcement process with frivolous appeals has collapsed yesterday.
Iran War Shock Trades Hurt US Asset Positions
If you're expressing Iran war shock trades in US related assets, you're gonna have a bad time
Treasuries Near Multi-Year Breakdown Ahead of Powell's Final FOMC
$TLT Weekly. Headed into Powell's final FOMC, Treasuries on brink of not just multi-month breakdown but multi-year as well. Bear flag threat here, which means risk of rates spiking higher yet https://t.co/BKBIEADTxm
Reversing Inflation: A Disastrous Lesson From Japan
Absolute clown show on BTV: "I believe we should not just slow but reverse inflation." Worked well for Japan, Neil.
New Financial Crisis Looms, Different From 2008
Why would anyone expect a similar crisis? BBC: "A fresh financial crisis may be coming - it won't play out like the last one" https://t.co/L8Q709Yh4N
USDCAD Reflects Negative Yield Spread Despite Higher US Rates
Even though the US benchmark rate is ~150 basis points higher than the Canadian benchmark, the 2-year to benchmark yield spread between the US and Canada is -0.53% (-53 bps). $USDCAD vs that premium differential: https://t.co/hp6WgKtRCI
US Growth Accelerates; Oil Deal Uncertain, Risk Assets Undervalued
So, I have quite clearly been too optimistic around settling terms with Iran (it admittedly looked like a deal to everyone that Friday a few weeks back), and it seems like both sides think they can afford to be strategically...
Global Trade Grows by Shifting Partners Amid US Tariffs
"Despite tariffs, global trade keeps growing – just with new partners" https://t.co/BTzpU1aCMo "The US is a problem, but hey, let’s expand trade with each other and with the rest of the world... And this is exactly what we did.” https://t.co/RscZQUE96M
Emerging Markets Shift to Gold as Dollar Reserves Shrink
Deutsche’s George Saravelos highlights today that “the share of US dollars in central bank reserves is once more in decline. It has fallen from over 60% to just 40%, while gold’s share has tripled from its lows to 30% today.” And: “...
35% of US Tariffs Evaded in 2025, $107 B Lost
New report claims ~35% of US tariffs ($107B) were dodged in 2025: "the steep increase in tariffs and the on-again, off-again nature of the tariff rollout created incentive and opportunity for businesses to find ways to reduce their duty burden" https://t.co/d21nSCyckZ
US Bloc Decries China’s Pressure on Panama‑Flagged Ships
US-Led Bloc Condemns China Pressure on Panama-Flagged Ships. Maritime and ports—now part of geopolitics. https://t.co/OUBgxoQL4i
Global Bond Yields Hit Multi-Decade Highs, Lifting US Rates
Global bond yields still a story. 10 yr JGB yield at 29 yr high, German 10 yr bund yield at 15 yr high, and 10 yr gilt yield at 16 yr high today. Dragging up US long end yields.
Higher Rates, Energy Costs Spell Trouble for Import‑dependent Currencies
Rising rates and high energy costs are going to be bad for any currency whose country is a net importer of energy Going long JPY (or EM FX for that matter) right now is effectively calling the top on global bond...