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Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
Balance of the month cash Dubai crude barrels (white line) still trading higher than the prompt Oman futures (blue) I'm seeing quoted this morning, which are down more sharply, but spot Middle East barrels certainly feeling less pressure and all off their recent highs. Best explanation is that everyone expects this to be over soon, so why pay the fortune for spot barrels if you can get one *much* cheaper in a week or two? Of course, this all assumes that a resumption of proper flow through the Strait of Hormuz is imminent—which may be true, but still hasn't happened yet. Big weekend ahead of us, a lot riding on successful negotiations and a quick resolution to the Hormuz stoppage.
Trump's war in Iran isn't going to collapse the U.S. economy. But it'll lead to further souring of consumer sentiment, even as it hurts the rest of the world. America will rightfully be seen as a chaos agent who leaves...
Powell's Inflation Excuse – It's All BS! Powell: "Inflation was global so you can't blame us." Me: That's BS. Every central bank made the same mistake – cutting rates, printing money, flooding economies. That doesn't excuse the Fed. It proves they ALL...
Which countries are most dependent on fertilizer through the Straits of Hormuz. More on this in the Chartbook Top Links today. https://t.co/r2Cnz3sGtS
I asked White House senior counselor Peter Navarro about the timeline of making the 10% global tariff into a 15% tariff, something he says is "in process." "I wouldn't get too lost in the day to day on that," he...
Taiwan politics isn’t just a local issue. When a party like the KMT shapes how closely the country engages with China and the US, it influences a supply chain the entire world depends on. That’s why it matters far beyond Taiwan. https://t.co/2eGMOnyZKp
the @federalreserve has cut interest rates six times since Sep '244 and U.S. 10-year yields $TNX have risen from 3.7% to 4.4% since that cutting program began... https://t.co/EQHFpoQsIC
Every oil analyst reading the Iran War's done headlines and watching the Iran War's done price action waiting for the Strait of Hormuz to actually begin flowing again https://t.co/4kBqUoI2Np
"Rather than being a sign of weakness, TACO is working in Trump’s favor. No one knows for certain when or if he’ll try to end the war, which has been enough to stop traders from pushing up the oil price."...
🚨 Markets are surging - but Iran says truce, talks NOT viable in current conditions Missiles are still flying Oil is driving EVERYTHING ⚠️Is this a real move or a trap? Here's what I'm watching before I touch anything $SPY $GLD $USO $DXY $EURUSD...
"US Import Prices Jump by Most in Nearly Four Years Ahead of Iran War" "Excluding petroleum, import costs advanced 1.2%, the most since January 2022 and driven by higher prices for capital goods and consumer merchandise excluding automobiles." https://t.co/0glmjMPmLR
Gold $4,550+. Missiles flying. Bonds selling off. The safe haven playbook just got rewritten. $GLD $GC_F $TLT https://t.co/mnn27BiQUs
Lots of headline whipsaw but call me crazy but I do find market price action useful. Oman oil back down to the 90’s from the 170 highs says this is a wrap https://t.co/0WwZo0Hanz
Trump's tweets can move sentiment, writes @JavierBlas They can’t move reality Two weeks to fix flows—or the market stops listening https://t.co/JOkeWKOjXl #Oil #EnergyMarkets #Hormuz #Inflation #Geopolitics
$5 Corn May Mark a 2026 Peak Alongside $120 Crude - The December corn future (Dec26) stretch to $4.99 a bushel around the onset of the Iran war on March 9 may have peak inklings akin to Dec22's $7.66 apex...
The Fed Already Has What it Needs to Navigate Supply Shocks--my latest newsletter with cameo appearance by @amacker and awesome Don Kohn link from @darioperkins. https://t.co/ihDcQmi2WI https://t.co/jbXalR3zRA
Oil -10% Monday. Oil +4% Tuesday. Same war. Same geopolitics. The volatility IS the signal. $USO $XLE $SPY https://t.co/Od9t9fzbbl
Barclays raises 2026 year-end S&P 500 target to 7,650 despite Middle East, inflation risks https://t.co/UIix0xSpIM
"EU says Mercosur free trade deal will start May 1, accounting for 25% of global GDP" https://t.co/357IyH3KRA https://t.co/tpysXMlyjm
I wrote about plastic prices in yesterday's Odd Lots newsletter ahead of today's episode (which you should definitely listen to) Packaging really is an underappreciated driver of inflation, and plastics prices are already spiking You can't buy a bag of carrots without...
Price on PLASTICS just DOUBLED‼️ downstream financial repercussions of the Iran war. This is what a supply shock looks like in the real economy.
Hope Lifts Stocks and Bonds: There continues to be hope in the capital and commodity markets that a US-Israel war on Iran can be brought to a conclusion soon. While news reports indicate that the US had drafted a 15-point...
The ECB’s response to the current energy price shock will be rooted in our monetary policy strategy which is well equipped to help us navigate it. That was my message at the #ECBWatchers conference. Read my speech https://t.co/dDjDthBlTi https://t.co/p1TD3EuhAz
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Sudanese pound ranks as the WORLD'S 6TH WORST CURRENCY. The pound has depreciated by over 27% against the USD in the past year. https://t.co/6wm9wwnlxP
UK inflation stayed at 3% in the weeks leading up to the Iran war https://t.co/WPMVXJqwKz via @tomelleryrees https://t.co/1H8Ml5iePk
India's REER (Real Effective Exchange Rate) index is substantially below 100, no matter which currency basket we use. Below 100 means the rupee is undervalued. I have issues with the index (which only uses good trade, not services) - if...
Thailand is hiking power prices due to the conflict in the Middle East 🇹🇭 ⚠️ Power rates may be increased by as much as 18% for the May-Aug. billing period due to higher fuel costs Other gas importers are...
The heavy flow of War-related news continues this morning, with reports ranging from corroborative to contradictory. On a net basis—and mainly reflecting news that the US has proposed a “15-point plan to end the war”—bond yields and oil prices are down...
Mostly green arrows around the World as Israel says there’s growing talks for a 30 Day Ceasefire. Europe and Asia broadly higher $spx futures +62. We’ll see if early strength builds or fades. $spy pivot resistance $662...
Nations race to secure enough fertilizer and prevent a food crisis https://t.co/XNG35EquM6 via @parija_pratik @ilenapeng @ElThorn22 https://t.co/6wfySPHkym
My take on @AJEnglish on how the US-Israeli war has backfired and is benefiting Iran: “Iran is getting more oil out, they’re selling it at higher prices, and at lower discounts than prior to the US-Israeli attacks.” https://t.co/ySeIcR0lFS
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: Foreign visitor arrivals dropped 2.1% y/y in February. Turkey’s tourism sector is paying the price for the US-Israeli attack on Iran. TURKEY’S TOURIST OPERATORS SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR DAMAGES TO TRUMP & NETANYAHU. https://t.co/HORq6jRes2
#IndiaWatch 🇮🇳: As the Iranian war drags on, India takes an economic hit. Eighty percent of Indian gas imports, forty percent of Indian oil imports, and forty percent of India’s remittances depend on the Gulf. MODI SHOULD SEND TRUMP AND NETANYAHU A...
This is why there is so much focus on gas demand destruction 👇 Importers (particularly those in emerging Asia) will need to take less LNG to free-up more for Europe and other richer nations the longer Hormuz/Qatar is shut
OPEC+ crude supply in March will be the lowest since the major production cuts during COVID lockdown in 2020.
Global composite activity PMIs for March universality dropped for the latest month's activity. Australia took the biggest hit. Japan and US still holding up the best relatively speaking. Overall, the US-Iran conflict's energy crisis is spilling over https://t.co/viZdRPVFN9
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the North Korean won ranks as the WORLD'S 2ND WORST CURRENCY. The won has depreciated by 61% against the USD over the past year. THE COLLAPSE OF THE WON IS THE WORLD’S MOST UNREPORTED CURRENCY STORY. https://t.co/WiB50eaMz6
Trump Iran talks revived Strait of Hormuz oil flow fears and pushed global energy prices higher. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/trump-iran-talks-put-strait-of-hormuz.html
Saudi oil exports from its Western ports on the Red Sea represented the most immediate and largest mitigation of the Hormuz crisis. Logically, any oil transported via pipelines from east to west and loaded at the Red Sea ports must be...
#HankeInflationDashboard: By my measurements, this week's top 5 inflators are: 🇻🇪Venezuela — 634.0%/yr 🇰🇵North Korea — 160.7%/yr 🇮🇷Iran — 67.0%/yr 🇱🇾Libya — 55.3%/yr 🇨🇺Cuba — 48.9%/yr https://t.co/mNBJPXLGIg
This will be nothing like VZ @HayekAndKeynes Iran is the most powerful country in the world right now. It controls the blood supply of the global economy. It's wildest dream wan't half this good It couldn't give a shit about its own people...
Gas prices in China jumped 20% since the war in Iran began. This is big. It affects 300 million drivers. CHAIRMAN XI SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR DAMAGES TO TRUMP & NETANYAHU. https://t.co/5AEwfc2iWb
1/5 This new paper by the Fed concludes that China's export success stems from weak domestic demand "rooted in structural features of China's economy and financial system—particularly those that constrain household consumption." https://t.co/jplDeN5d6g
The markets now think the ECB and BOE will now hike rates by at least 50bps apiece, and the RBA will hike by at least another 50bps on top of the 50bps they've done already. The PMI data says otherwise....
And Trump just explained why there’s virtually no commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz right now. The Lincoln is ~600 miles off Iran’s coast. That gives it several minutes of warning time, plus an entire air wing, three destroyers, a...
SPR releases are a rounding error against a 10–17 mb/d disruption, says @ericnuttall Paper oil is still pretending everything’s fine. Even if this ends tomorrow, you’re left with a $10+ security premium Damaged infrastructure takes years, not weeks to recover This is a...
42k US home purchases were canceled in February which equates to 13.7% of all homes under contract. That's the highest cancellation percentage for any February on record. https://t.co/QuxiWyB3TE
What Trump and the IEA Missed About the Oil Market: Relief Does Not Work When Markets Are in Panic Mode Daily Energy Report https://t.co/9c26JYBjru
Both sides want a deal Washington wants Iran to give up the things that define it Iran wants relief without giving up those things NO DEAL IS POSSIBLE on these terms. #Iran #Trump #Hormuz #Geopolitics #Diplomacy #MiddleEast #War #Strategy #Oil #IRGC https://t.co/cfX0dD9IzF
Kevin Fox provides a terrific summary of GDP-B, a new way of measuring economic well-being
