Bond Market Sees 12% Chance of Fed Hike, 5% Cut
The bond market is now pricing in a higher probability of a Fed RATE HIKE (12%) by the end of this year than a RATE CUT (5%). https://t.co/i77bnsp7MR
Fed’s $9 Trillion Money Printing Drove Inflation, Not Supply Shocks
The Fed expanded the money supply by nearly $9 trillion under Powell. Inflation has averaged >4% per year over the past 6 years. Powell's explanation? It was nearly all due to rolling “supply shocks" over which the Fed has no control. The truth:...
Powell’s 2025 Easing May Not Offset Job Losses
"Remember there is a dual mandate at the Fed we have data out this morning that showed 3rd quarter of 2025 the economy lost an average of 53000 jobs a month. The question is was Powell aggressive enough in easing...
Fed Holds Rates Amid Most Divided Vote Since 1992
FOMC: Fed leaves the FFR unchanged at 3.50-3.75% The vote was the most divided FOMC decision since 1992 (8-4 in favour of holding rates).
2026 Update Signals Push for Export Diversification
What does the 2026 Spring Economic Update mean for diversifying Canada’s exports? #canada🇨🇦 #canada #trade #energy
Nailed Oil & Wheat Lows, Then Hormuz Closure Shock
Me scrolling twitter after nailing both the oil and wheat lows and then seeing the strait of Hormuz close (which wasn't even possible to be part of the narratives at the time) https://t.co/2y2yGNWZvz
Tech and Crypto Beat Inflation in the Exponential Age
I started by trying to understand markets. Thirty years later I've ended up somewhere closer to life, the universe and everything. The same four rules keep showing up... Along the way I've written three frameworks that have shaped how a lot...
UAE Reserves at $285B; March Data Will Test Stress
Counterpoint: the UAE ended February with USD 285b in fx reserves. The first real indicator of stress will come when the Emirates releases data (soon I expect) on end March reserves 1/ https://t.co/eO790Q1e0x
US Gas Prices Signal Global Inflation Wave Arriving
A lot of attention on US pump prices. But it’s only the tip of the iceberg of systemic inflation already advancing across the globe. And the US will import it too.
All Major Rates Climbing: Oil, Yields, Dollar Surge
Higher oil Higher yields Higher dollar Higher USDJPY Higher SOFR Market, show me you care.
2026 More Likely to See Rate Hike Than Cut
🚨 There is now a higher chance of a rate hike than a rate cut in 2026. https://t.co/yKg7oHD4Mv
Russia Eyes Mali Lithium While China Guards Its Interests
Watching the Mali situation to see if Russia decides to muscle in the lithium sector there although China will look after its in-Mali interests .
Monetary Policy Must Adapt to AI-Driven Growth
All you need to know about monetary policy in a world of AI-supercharged growth. ⬇️
Economic Leverage Becomes Weapon Amid Global Instability
✍️ UK Foreign Minister 👉”Instability and volatility are the new normal and countries across the world are increasingly reaching for economic tools to exert global leverage, 💥whether to coerce or constrain. https://t.co/GzEYSjon4v
Powell to Lose QE Chair, Warsh Takes Over
And here is Powell at the press conference: Regime Change: Powell, Chair of Mega-QE & “Ample Reserves Regime,” to Be Replaced by Warsh, who Wants Smaller Balance Sheet But Powell will stay on as governor until “the investigation is well and...
Iran Poised to Become Fourth Global Superpower
"Like the Black Knight in Monty Python and the Holy Grail, all of these military victories are mere flesh wounds for the Islamic Republic. The real story is that when the fighting stops, Iran will emerge as the fourth major...
Fed Cuts Raise 30-Year Yield; Inflation Still Looming
The Fed started cutting rates in Sep 2024 with the 30-year Treasury yield below 4%. They cut rates 175 bps and the 30-year yield is now approaching 5%. The Fed may be done with inflation, but inflation isn’t done with the Fed....
30‑Year Treasury Yield Reaches 5%, Near 18‑Year
*US 30-YEAR YIELD TOUCHES 5% FOR FIRST TIME SINCE JULY 2025 Now just 11 bps from a new 18-year high. https://t.co/Aow1azOUWb
Bessent Calls Powell’s Board Stay Fed Norm Violation
Bessent says Powell's decision to stay on at the board is a "violation of all Federal Reserve norms" and an "insult" to Warsh https://t.co/c6R0zLqPNA @nytimes
China’s 2‑3‑Month Iranian Crude Buffer Soon Ends
Roughly 155 mb of Iranian crude and condensate already sits outside the Gulf chokepoint, reports @Kpler China has a 2–3 month buffer of Iranian barrels outside the Gulf. After that, supply tightens, prices rise, and margins get squeezed. #OilMarkets #Iran #China #Refining...
Tech Beats Mask Macro Weakness, Markets Still Slide
Tech earnings beat… and stocks still dropped. $META $GOOG $AMZN That tells you everything. Oil at $108 Gas at highs since 2022 Fed divided like we haven’t seen since 1992 This isn’t a “buy the dip” market… it’s a read the macro market. https://t.co/cHKTtu3no5
China Threatens EU over “Buy European” And Cyber Rules
China to EU: We’re going to need you to make substantial changes to your proposed “Buy European” and cybersecurity rules, or else face the consequences. https://t.co/gGBr0Rq5nh
Explaining Powell Critique Live with Jack Farley, Max Wiethe
I will be on with @JackFarley96 and @maxwiethe in about 15 minutes. And for those torching me on my Powell takes, I will explain further. (For everyone else, Powell is making a terrible mistake by staying.)
Sanctions Backfire: Expert Confirms They're Ineffective
My friend and renowned oil expert, Javier Blas, NAILS IT. Just like I’ve always said, sanctions rarely work. They almost always BACKFIRE. https://t.co/JcwVpQy4zO
Fed Holds Rates, Dissenting Hawk Calls for Cut
Hawks squawk amidst “assaults” The Federal Reserve stayed on the sidelines with rates held in the 3.5to 3.75% range. The statement underscored the uncertainty regarding “developments in the Middle East.” The vote was not unanimous in a very unique way. Governor...
Powell Likely to Be Fed’s Final Independent Chair
What are the odds that Jerome Powell is the last independent Fed chair? My take is it's higher than you think
Yield Caps Hide Fiscal Risk, Depreciate the Yen
The Yen is tumbling. That's happening because the BoJ caps Japanese long-term yields at artificially low levels via JGB purchases. These yield caps prevent the fiscal risk premium from showing up in the bond market, so instead it shows up...
Fed Independence Persists: Powell, Warsh Impact Markets & Gold
Post FOMC analysis with @adamtaggart - Fed independence/ Powell staying on / Warsh Fed / implications for markets / gold https://t.co/V94nEWpvPn
US Iran Invasion Derails Expected Fed Rate Cuts
Fed rate cuts were on the cards. But then the U.S. invaded Iran. Now the outlook is very different. https://t.co/Hlv6G6KO9D
Private Banks Create 80% of US Money, Not the Fed
My take on @UnsiloedPodcast on what macroeconomics textbooks won’t tell you: "About 80% of US broad money is produced privately by commercial banks. It's not produced by the Fed. The elephant in the room is commercial banks. That’s where money is...
Fed's Vague “Adjustments” Reveal FOMC Uncertainty
This was NOT a bias. The Fed statement mentioned it as such in the vaguest ways possible "adjustments" instead of rate cuts, which is a reflection of the fact that the FOMC itself is uncertain abt the outlook.
Powell Says He'll Stay, Exit only when Appropriate
Jay Powell: I have no choice but to stay at the Fed as a governor. I will keep a low profile. I will leave when I think it is appropriate to do so. https://t.co/zZifrDb0D5
US Auto Policy: Decades of Subsidies, Tariffs, Bailouts
If you're mad about the state of the US auto industry, just remember we've never stopped doing industrial policy there. 1964-today: 25% tariff on light trucks 1966-today: $40 billion in state and local subsidies 1980: $1.5 billion bailout of Chrysler 1981-1994: voluntary...
Powell to Remain Fed Governor, Echoing 1948 Precedent
POWELL: WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A GOVERNOR FOR PERIOD OF TIME - Bloomberg **Last time this actually happened? 1948 — Marriner Eccles got the boot as Chair and kept his seat on the Board until 1951. - Grok
Fed Holds Rates Amid Record Dissent, Split Hawk‑Dove
This Fed Meeting Must Have Been a Hoot. Fed Holds Rates amid 4 Dissents, most since 1992: 1 Dovish, 3 Hawkish. “Inflation is elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices.” In part. And in part for other...
State Ownership Now Dominates Global Oil Reserves
during the 1973 oil crisis, private companies controlled 85% of global proven reserves. today, state owned enterprises control 75%. (and that number would be 90% if it wasn’t for the shale boom)
Fed Faces Unprecedented Internal Division in 21st Century
This might be the most fractious and divided the Fed has been in the 21st century... https://t.co/ejBsNbLtXp
Fed Policymakers Warn Warsh: No Consensus on Rate Cuts
A group of Federal Reserve policymakers sent Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh a clear warning on Wednesday: They're not sold on cutting interest rates. https://t.co/K8PiTAl1aL
Dissenting Fed Voices Signal Future Policy Direction
Why do we listen to Powell when he'll be out after today? Why do we look at the statement? Because the dissents speak volumes, set the tone for what's ahead. Regional Fed Presidents say: we are independent.
New Data Favors Rate Cuts over Further Hikes
The main reason are that the facts have changed. Folks may finally wake up to: 1) Headline & Core PCE >1% above target & rising. 2) Rates are just 0.5%-.75% above neutral 3) Labor market data has at least stabilized (maybe picking up) 4)...
Fed Officials Recognize Easing Bias in Policy Adjustments
"In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments..." The "additional" is the easing bias. Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan and everyone else at the Fed understands this.
Hammack, Logan’s Hawkish Dissent Fuels
Hammack and Logan dissenting on "additional" leans hawkish. What amazes me is these two are the architects of tapering, then ending QT, and with Perli flooding the system with RMO reserves. These two literally do not understand monetary...
Subtle Fed Easing Bias Sparks Three Dissenting Votes
Mildly hilarious that an easing bias that is only able to be discerned by knowledge of the Fed’s recent past and is not apparent from the plain meaning of the words used can catalyze three dissents.
China Avoided WTO Case by Skipping Procurement Pact
There was never a WTO case -- China never signed up to the government procurement agreement, and the criteria for the lists were designed so as never to explicitly say only Chinese made products quaified ... 1/2
FOMC Signals to Warsh, Not Powell Losing Control
The dumb take is that Powell has lost control. The smart take is that this is the FOMC telling Warsh he wont have control...
M
Stephen Miran votes for a rate cut after a 60% rise in energy prices. A monument should be built for him in Umiversal Studios. Name your film
Fed Adopts BoE Playbook Before Warsh Chair Transition
The BoEfication of the Fed. Pretty smart move ahead of handing over the chair to Warsh... maybe Powell can walk now afterall
Dissents Signal Neutral Bias, Not Powell Weakening
The 3 dissents over the easing bias is not a blow to Powell, like some are saying, but it is a signal to Warsh. The dissents wanted to adopt a more neutral bias. Miran's dissent for a rate cut...
Fed Holds Rates, Committee Splits on Future Cut Language
Surprising exactly nobody, the Fed kept rates on hold. More interesting: This is the most divided I've seen a committee vote. They're not divided over the decision (except Miran, but who cares), but over the language, and whether to signal the...
Fed Holds Rates 8-4, Divided Over Easing Bias
Fed votes 8-4 to hold rates steady, the most divisive decision since 1992. Miran wanted a 25bp cut. Hammack, Kashkari and Logan supported the hold but wanted the Fed to remove the easing bias in the statement. The line in question...