Global Economy Social Media and Updates
Global Economy Social Media and Updates
Global Economy Pulse
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
@grok There are about 20 LNG cargoes stranded in the Gulf because of the Hormuz crisis, explain to my followers how they lose LNG due to evaporation.
I said last June-July: China got the message, Hormuz Strait will be closed, and started preparing for it. Read details below.
My appearance today @OnPointRadio with @MeghnaWBUR talking about the Strait of Hormuz. On Point: https://t.co/X1Zkk3Qebt Spotify: https://t.co/ZpzVC27zml Apple: https://t.co/4ahkNZRGed
My BNN Bloomberg conversation from earlier today for those who missed it. Talked about the state and trajectory of the Iran War, the growing physical-sentiment disconnect in oil markets, and how nothing really matters unless traffic through the Strait of Hormuz...
Canada Doesn’t Need New Pipelines, Despite Oil Shock Economist Werner Antweiler says that a short-term oil shock doesn't overcome the many reasons why Asia won't be a market for Alberta heavy sour crude. #abpoli #ableg https://youtu.be/GUwULJF2jfc
IEA chief to brief EU finance ministers on Iran war impact this week https://t.co/MQ3pSEFj3B via @europressos https://t.co/7Eo8OA83pz
Italy is said to plan cutting growth forecast to as low as 0.5% https://t.co/H1osZtypmg via @Alemrome @donatopmancini https://t.co/NxADoXpQ0s
This volatile oil price remains at the mercy of a flood of (often-contradictory) headlines emanating from the three warring parties — US, Iran, and Israel. #economy #oil #markets #energy #middleeastwar
Going live with Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran in 40 minutes - tune in! @federalreserve
TLT lost $1.2B. HYG lost $623M. 10Y at 4.38% and rising. In a war. Who buys the bond dip? Foreign CBs may be selling to defend currencies vs DXY near 100. Pension funds face oil inflation that muddies the real yield math. Rate-cut traders...
Oil prices up 20% in weeks. 1 day alone added 9%. In 1973, a supply shock like this wiped 45% off the stock market and sent gold up over 2000%. I have spent 55 years building an alternative framework for understanding how...
🚨Hormuz Crisis goes global: Europe is heading for energy shortages, massive price spikes, and deeper reliance on Russian energy. 🚨What is next for US commercial crude inventories after the SPR release? Daily Energy Report https://t.co/W33F3aHN9V
The market prices a ceasefire and full-scale war simultaneously. Diplomatic pause: oil -10%. Iran denial: oil +4%. SPY -0.80%. Same week. Opposite pricing. 48 hours apart. Beneath the whipsaw, TLT keeps bleeding. Spreads widen. Copper stays down 10% monthly. Breadth broken. Geopolitical noise drives...
A lot of oil importers have been intervening pretty heavily to keep their currencies from depreciating and adding to the oil price shock. Turkey is one of the more interesting cases, as its fx reserves remain limited 1/2 https://t.co/zsikWfgTxD
TEN TRILLION DOLLARS of existing US gov’t debt needs to be refinanced in the next 12 months. This spells more trouble for the out-of-control federal budget in which net interest expense already accounts for 14% of federal spending and is growing...
🆓 Wednesday links: gold's safe-haven status, standalone Siri, and the economic pain of the Iran war. https://t.co/2egB9QZjgV image: https://t.co/98xXyDFF3F https://t.co/3zk2NqUkqL
India’s LPG crisis following closure of the Strait of Hormuz The war between the United States and Iran and closure of Strait of Hormuz has become a critical threat to the supply of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) India relies on for...
Coming to terms with the fact that no matter how the Iran War and Hormuz crisis ends it’s going to be far harder going forward to scoff at claims that the paper market isn’t pricing in physical oil market realities. Catastrophic...
International Chamber of Commerce head. May be facing ‘worst industrial crisis’. Iran war. Strait. Supply of supply chains.
🚨 LATEST Iran grants Spain free passage through the Strait of Hormuz The move comes right after Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez publicly called the war “illegal” and a “colossal mistake.” https://t.co/l8uXSjtTvr
Strait closure. Global chemical supply chains and production? And what those chemicals are needed for?
“An official from an Asian or African country who needs urea before the monsoon does not discuss the Ukrainian question. He calls the Kremlin, and the Kremlin picks up,” she said. On how the US war with Iran is strengthening Russia...
Ukraine struck another Russian export terminal today. Reuters calculates that 40% of Russian oil export capacity is currently offline. Ukrainian sanctions at work.
did the rally of stocks $SPX vs. commodities since the '22 bottom roll over making a bigger picture lower high in favour of commodities? hmmm.... 👀 https://t.co/06LFvU59Fx
China's dilemma is that while it can reduce SAFE's exposure to the Treasury market, it hasn't found a way to consistently combine a big external surplus and limited state foreign asset growth. The state banks are doing something...
NEW PODCAST EPISODE. 1) How the Iran situation changes the outlook 2) Lessons from the 1990 recession 3) Are the Europeans seriously gonna hike (again..)
Looks like exporters forgot to eat Trump's tariffs, import prices rose 1.1% in February and 2.5% year-over-year https://t.co/3UkarMgRx7
Saudi oil shipments via the Red Sea have been ramping up rapidly and are getting close to the five million BPD target https://t.co/SkPyeLTXbO https://t.co/nmq5Kt89xT
...and yet Hormuz remains closed. The US bragging about how many targets we've hit in Iran while Hormuz remains closed is the geopolitical equivalent of "Every kid gets a trophy", because Hormuz closure means the world economy is on the clock. Another...
Iran hit Israeli cities AND US bases. Saudi Arabia intercepted a drone. Kuwait's power grid is down. Day 25. $XLE $USO $GLD https://t.co/FhexaYgwcd
10-Year Yield Holds Uptrend as Inflation Nowcast Accelerates during #Quad3 The bond market isn’t buying the narrative. 📉📊 📈 10Y still making higher highs/lows 📊 Range: 4.20–4.43%
Africa has all the wealth, however, once extracted, it lands on the balance sheets of Western Entities and the benefits accrue to foreign powers.
It may be tempting to think that the rise in yields is the product of a US-centric dynamic (relating to OPEC recycling no/fewer petrodollars into Treasuries), but the next chart shows that yields are rising everywhere. This is global reset,...
Markets don’t really care who controls the Strait of Hormuz as long as the oil starts to flow again — “give markets what they want” doesn’t necessarily mean a US win.
I am not sure that is in Tehran's interest to hold out forever. If they usher in a 1970s style global recession, the "gloves are off." They too have an interest in negotiating somewhere within the Area N. As close...
UK businesses face a jump of up to 80% in gas bills on Iran war https://t.co/THZNalojSw via @EamonFarhat https://t.co/vr4PvVdKFc
Copper down 10% this month. Gold at $4,550+. Same planet. Completely different signals. One screams recession. One screams fear. $CPER $GLD https://t.co/kChEJn36lH
Cool, cool, cool... "At least 40% of Russia's oil export capacity is at a halt following Ukrainian drone attacks, a disputed attack on a major pipeline and the seizure of tankers ... the most severe oil supply disruption in the modern...
Wild swings in the US quarterly current account deficit over the course of 2025 -- from close to 6 pp of GDP in q1 to well under 3% of GDP in q4 ... 1/ https://t.co/2EuT5nM3jZ
Four weeks into the US-Israeli war on Iran, 61% of Americans say they disapprove of US military strikes against Iran. THE US PUBLIC HAS TURNED ON THE WAR PRESIDENT. https://t.co/ICQnIktBVK
🛑So let me get this straight: President Trump waived sanctions on Russian oil at sea and released millions of barrels from the SPR to bring oil prices down. Then Zelensky struck Russian oil ports and terminals, tightening oil supply and pushing...
$EEM -3.44% in ONE session. Emerging markets are getting destroyed. War + strong dollar + commodity chaos = perfect storm. $DXY $EFA https://t.co/WNM0jw3qha
Thoughts on the Dollar: The dollar's resilience since the war began is not a mystery, but it is being misread. The Dollar Index has appreciated roughly 1.8% this month alone, following a modest 0.65% gain in February after January's 1.35%...
I’m looking forward to being “Hedgeye Live" in May. It will be a candid, data-driven discussion between me and @KeithMcCullough on the Fed, the economy, and markets — Get your tickets:https://t.co/jaW2cXRAUD #federalreserve #powell #dimartinobooth #economy #hedgeye https://t.co/y6q60MXSYn
While the 10-year yield broke out of a short term range, the weekly chart below still shows bonds holding within a long triangle (in place since 2022). If it breaks, it will be a problem not only for bonds but...
Today's Opening Bell Iran Talks Stall- Gold Rallies, Oil Slides, USD Holds (asset chaptered) https://t.co/TmUUL0psrk
Heads up that I'll be LIVE on @BNNBloomberg to talk oil markets and the [??end of??] the Iran War this morning at 11:15am ET. https://t.co/bqG3IGwkQS
Yes, and the kicker is that these governments keep signing real, durable, comprehensive FREE TRADE deals without imposing costly new taxes (tariffs) on their consumers. Almost as if....
I find the oil futures curve to be a useful way of keeping track of news out of the Middle East, as it provides a useful metric for assessing what's changing, and how much. https://t.co/Hl3XzfUEfP
According to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll, Americans now see the economy and foreign conflicts as the top two problems facing the country today. TRUMP = THE TARIFF MAN = THE WARMONGER = TANKING. https://t.co/rMaXFSELV1
