Oil Price Shock Ripples Through Inflation, Rates, Stock Valuations
The Iran-Hormuz story is not "just geopolitics" Here is the money chain Supply threat pushes crude up higher crude feeds inflation expectations higher inflation pressure keeps rates sticky sticky rates compress growth-stock multiples So even if your portfolio has zero oil names...you still feel this through valuation math
RBI's Derivatives Intervention Hits Record $103B Dollar Short
Rajan showed them the way in and not the way out. The Indian central bank’s intervention in the derivatives market rose sharply in March with its net short dollar position surging to a record $103 billion. https://t.co/nieEKFI3Wc
Cross‑border Debt Now Props the Dollar, Fuels Deficits
These days, the dollar is supported less by the US Navy, and more by all the crossborder dollar-denominated debt outstanding. But the real punchline is that it's also the source of the US structural trade deficits and industrial stagnation.
Singapore's Gold Imports From Dubai Hit Record Amid War
singapore is pulling in dubai gold as middle east war drags on. Imports of gold into Singapore from Dubai hit a record last month
Brent Hits Four-Year High, Just as Predicted
Brent crude prices just HIT A FOUR-YEAR HIGH. I'M NOT SURPRISED. As I predicted on @davidlin_TV on March 29th, crude oil prices would SPIKE by the end of APRIL. IT’S APRIL 30th, and PRICES HAVE SPIKED. https://t.co/7Tvnl0ojr1
US Q1 Growth Defies Shutdown, AI‑Driven Investment Surges
The US Economy grew by 2% in Q1 despite shutdown as business investment grew by most in 3yrs on AI and consumer spending grew by a better than expected 1.6%. I can literally hear some ppls' teeth gnashing (thoughts and...
Brazil Slashes Rates Again, Down to 14.5%
Global Central Bank Update: -Brazil cut rates for the second month in a row, 25 bps move down to 14.50%. https://t.co/a53O5fczcP
Energy Surge Signals Crisis, Yet Offers 10x Gains
I'm personally afraid of the coming 3-5 years for the economy and our society. The economy has become fragile amid global uncertainties. A sudden rise in gold isn't a signal of a strong economy; it's the exact opposite. Additionally, the rise in energy...
Interest Payments Overtake Defense Spending, Debt Soars
For the first time since the late 1920s, the U.S. is spending more on interest payments than on national defense. This isn't new—it's been true for two years. However, worth a reminder given the Trump administration's proposed $1.5 trillion defense...
Massive USD Deposits Make Swap Lines Unnecessary, Says Munger
"Invert...always invert." -Charlie Munger For example, w/ $14T in USD deposits offshore, why would the UAE (or any nation) ever need a USD swap line? If a guy w/a $14B bank deposit needed a home equity line just to pay his bills,...
Rates Paused, Borrowing Costs May Rise Soon
Interest rates on hold….but for how long? Here’s the lowdown on what could be a ahead for borrowing costs… #finance #money #costofliving #inflation #moneytok
Supply‑side Pressures Threaten US Productivity and Wages
Check out @PrestonMui's latest: The Supply-side May Spoil Warsh's Productivity Story The US economy is facing multiple pressures: tariffs, AI bottlenecks, war...Now healthcare costs are eating into wages Productivity was poor in Q4. Will be in Q1 too https://t.co/RBInolTCWS https://t.co/OAVJH4tUc4
Rate Cuts Done, Fed May Hike by 2027
The interest rate cutting cycle is officially over. With previously forecast rate cuts off the table, the market is now pricing in 50% odds the Fed will hike rates by April 2027. Position accordingly. https://t.co/LBGUwo4wXJ
Tariffs Drive Policy; Deny It, Adopt Hawkish Stance
If you don't think this is driven by tariffs, then you probably should be a lot more hawkish in your monetary policy views (all else equal)
Germany’s Green Rush and Russophobia Sink Economy
The combination of Germany’s GREEN MADNESS and RUSSOPHOBIA has PUT IT IN THE TANK. https://t.co/Hdi4vi7Rfu
EU Draft Shows Diverging Economic Directions in Two New Provisions
So we have new draft EU guidelines. There is lots to dig into. 90 pages. Most of it is housekeeping. But I think there are two provisions that are genuinely new economics, and they point in opposite directions. https://t.co/cpLrLFuCI0
USDJPY Likely to Surge After Intervention Skew
Room for USDJPY to keep going. Here is some data. After an intervention, it tends to go up a bit or down a lot. Often, there is a second round of intervention and that's why the skew is this way....
U.S. Can Blockade, Yet Fails to Restore Trade Confidence
I have no doubt the U.S. military can execute an effective blockade. What it has not shown is an ability to restore commercial confidence once a major waterway is disrupted, which we have seen in the Red Sea and is...
10-Year Yield Near Breakout, Markets Brace for Volatility
US 10-Year Yields are approaching a crucial breakout zone—are we heading toward the final leg higher? This could trigger volatility across equities and signal a major macro shift. 👉 Read the full analysis: https://t.co/O1bdBUqOoi https://t.co/tP9WV8oG6w
ECB May Raise Rates in June If Energy Prices Hold
ECB officials see June hike if energy prices don’t ease first https://t.co/oOFKXlly37 via @Alemrome https://t.co/chZl06ltaV
China Lets Hormuz Stay Open, Exploiting Western Turmoil
That's a fair way to think about it @Stormontenergy But maybe China just lets Hormuz ride for now. It's benefiting from more relative economic destruction to the West It has ample reserves including a few months of Iranian crude already on...
Lagarde
I mean, Lagarde all but confirmed this when she said a) inflation is moving away from the baseline and b) the baseline is conditional on two hikes.
Dollar Index Slides as BOJ Warns Yen Short‑Sellers
Big dip in the dollar index [DXY] today but this is news based. BOJ threatened speculators on betting against the Yen. This may end up being a one off and we need to observe the pattern after that. 98 is...
Warsh Takes Fed Helm, Signals Lower Short Rates
Bonds have remained eerily quiet and continue to sit near the apex of a long triangle. With Kevin Warsh now about to take the helm of the Fed, we are about to enter what we might call the Warsh-Bessent Treasury-Fed...
Futures
Futures markets suggest that trouble in the Middle East -- and higher energy prices -- will still be with us during the U.S. midterm elections in November. https://t.co/sX0oV15qiq
Fed's Rate Moves Defy Crisis Predictions
The Fed kept rates at 0% for a long time Lots of pundits predicted it would lead to a crisis and maybe even hyperinflation Didn't happen Then they raised rates b/c of the pandemic inflation Still no crisis Why? https://t.co/JqtrhQ1AHs https://t.co/g75B9IkwoQ
EU-Mercosur Deal Takes Effect; Origin Rules Summarized
As the EU- Mercosur provisionally enters into force tomorrow, I'm about to draft a short summary of origin provisions for EU teaders. Stay tuned.
Pakistan Opens Corridors, Linking Iran to Russia, China
🚨PAKISTAN DOUBLE CROSSING TRUMP🚨 Pakistan has now opened six corridors to Iran to bypass the US blockade. Over 3,000 containers are already traversing these routes. Iran can now connect directly by land to Russia & China and the US cannot stop them. MASTERMIND?...
Yen Surge Suggests Unofficial Intervention, Biggest USDJPY Drop Since 2023
Still no word from an official Japanese gov't source (BOJ or MOF) that this surge in the Yen is direct intervention. That said, looks like intervention. Biggest $USDJPY drop since January 2023 - in the aftermath of intervention back then....
US Economy Proves Teflon Against Decade’s Crises
One of the big lessons of the 2020s is the US economy can sustain massive disruptions and keep chugging along The pandemic Supply chain shocks 9% inflation Rising rates Tariffs War Now oil It's the Teflon economy https://t.co/SrFxevPWeG
Growth Boom and Surplus Can't Stop Currency Decline
Massive growth acceleration Massive external surplus Yet its currency weakened amid the growth surge hmmm https://t.co/r5svYHvizk
BOJ's Gigaton Reserves Deter Over‑Eager Yen Bears
Every once in a while, the BOJ puts the fear of god into over-eager yen bears by reminding them that it has a metric gigaton of reserve firepower. https://t.co/eIUqeJsch7
Rising Global Debt Signals Fiat Debasement, Boosting Gold‑Silver Miners
IMF warns: Global govt debt exploding to 102% of GDP by 2030 highest since WWII. US + China leading the charge. Translation? Fiat debasement ahead. Gold & silver miners are your leverage play. Cash-flow machines with rising metal prices. $gdxj...
Potential $1.5 T Dry Powder Could Ignite Stock Rally
We haven’t heard much about that mountain of cash supposedly sitting on the sidelines waiting to get sucked into the market. My take has been that the $7.8 trillion sitting in money market funds came from the banks and not...
US Sees Limited Economic Impact From Hormuz Blockade
pardon the flippancy, but from a US macroeconomic perspective, i do think the Strait of Hormuz blockade’s impact is limited. more importantly, i believe this is how POTUS is thinking about it. always great catching up with the Politico Morning Money team...
Markets Stuck in Lower Lows Amid Stagnant Fed
Oil at $126 CPI at 3.3% Fed frozen ETF outflows back BTC stuck at $76k Lower lows.
Powell's Fed Tenure Remains a High-Stakes Gamble
NEW: Powell has often said the Fed faces "no risk-free paths" as it contends w/ economic shocks that lift inflation and dent growth. The same could be said for his momentous decision to stay on at the Fed as a...
Nikkei Confirms Material Market Intervention Occurred Today
The Nikkei is reporting that material intervention did take place today. It cites unidentified govt official.
War Saves Fed From Failed Inflation Forecast
Yep, though the Fed will never admit they had a failing inflation forecast. The war bailed them out.
Lagarde Signals Two Rate Hikes in March Forecast
Lagarde basically underwriting the idea that the baseline forecasts in March includes two rate hikes
AI Spending Won’t Shield Economy From Recession
Q1 GDP is out, and the strongest piece of the economy is business investment (data center construction and AI spending). People will try to tell you AI can keep us out of a recession. Don't believe them. The facts say otherwise. https://t.co/uRz236P0fY
ECB Delays Decision, Promises Review Next Month
The ECB is "not pre-committing" to any decision, but it is "bound to revisit" the situation next month. Hope you you picked up on the nuance.
Business Investment Outpaces Consumer Spending in Q1 GDP
Business investment contributed **more** to GDP in Q1 than consumer spending. This is an AI economy now. Business investment contribution to Q1 GDP: 1.48 Personal consumption contribution to Q1 GDP: 1.08 (Joey's great chart shows the biz investment in green vs. consumption in yellow)
Yen Surge Exposes Central Banks' Ponzi Economy
Watching the Yen get manipulated stronger (And US Dollar weaker) this morning is just incredible. The side-effects globally is a testament to the fact we are in a centrally-planned ponzi economy where free markets don't really exist in the way have...
Yen Jumps 3% on Speculation of Japanese Intervention
Yen intervention? Bloomberg: "The yen surged as much as 3% as traders speculated Japan is intervening in the foreign-exchange market, hours after officials delivered a “final” warning to investors against selling the currency" https://t.co/ePYGtzQpwG
Lagarde Says “Stagflation” No Longer Applies This Time
Lagarde (only slightly paraphrased): we don't use the term stagflation because this time is different
Core PCE Hits 3.2%, Prompting Likely Fed Hike
The Fed's preferred measure of inflation (Core PCE) came in at 3.2% in March, the highest level since November 2023. This was the 61st consecutive reading above the Fed's 2% target level. There will be no Fed rate cut in...
U.S. Debt Surpasses GDP, Tops 100% Threshold
The U.S. national debt now exceeds 100% of gross domestic product, crossing a once-unthinkable threshold, by @RichardRubinDC @WSJ. As of March 31, publicly held federal debt equaled 100.2% of 12-month trailing nominal GDP, up from 99.5% on Sept. 30. ...
Lagarde Signals Hawkish Shift, Rate Hike on Table
Here's @lagarde's hawkish signal: "we are certainly moving away from our baseline". The unanimous decision to remain on hold was based on "insufficient information, but a rate hike was also discussed today.
U.S. Export Sales Meet Expectations; Corn, Beans, Wheat Strong
🇺🇸Last week's U.S. export sales met trade expectations. Corn stayed above average for the time of year, led by Colombia, Mexico, Venezuela & unknown. China led in net bean sales (though most were switched from unknown), Egypt was 2nd. Old-crop...