Global Economy Social Media and Updates
Global Economy Social Media and Updates
Global Economy Pulse
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Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
In an attempt to ANNEX southern Lebanon, Israel is now setting up fortifications & creating a so-called “buffer zone” between Israel & Lebanon. Israel is already ILLEGALLY occupying about 8% of Lebanon’s territory. https://t.co/9FEQdXkvKH
Goldman Sachs downgrades India to Market Weight and lowers NIFTY target to 25,900 from 29,300.
Be careful not to confuse changes in valuation and changes in custodial patterns (after Russia's reserves were immobilized) with actual sales https://t.co/zTGz75N9rr
Unemployment rate rising Geopolitical conflicts rising Price of oil rising Inflation rising Airport travel collapsing Bitcoin dropping Stocks dropping All business cycles must come to an end, and it usually ends with a recession.
As long as Hormuz stays closed (which is highly likely near term), 10y UST yields will likely keep rising until either Fed or Treasury are forced to inject USD liquidity (into an oil spike & increasingly fracturing global supply chains)...
Iran shepherds friendly bulkers through Hormuz ▶️Evidence the Islamic Republic is allowing its own trade through the Strait of Hormuz ▶️Increase in westbound transits after weeks-long lull ▶️Other bulkers that have waited in the Arabian Sea are now on the move towards the...
The ill-conceived US-Israeli war against Iran will go down in history as one of the great supply shocks. Surprisingly, it hasn’t been fully priced into the market yet. https://t.co/0P6D68qJi7
Macro: UK100 -1.29% as Financials & Mining lead. Key: 3i to 52‑wk low; gold -3.5%, Brent +4.9%, USD firmer. Risk: commodity shock, sector contagion. Trade: trim cyclicals. Expect consolidation. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Of note: Up 7 basis points so far today, the yield on the US 10-year government bond is currently trading above 4.40%. #economy #markets #bonds
𝗪𝗮𝗿, 𝗢𝗶𝗹, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗠𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝘆 𝗥𝗮𝗻𝗱 🇿🇦 The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) just mapped out two possible futures for South Africa's economy. 𝗦𝗰𝗲𝗻𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗼 𝟭: 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗦𝗵𝗼𝗿𝘁 𝗦𝗵𝗼𝗰𝗸 If the conflict ends within 2 months, oil averages just under $100/barrel, and the...
My view in the @EpochTimes on Pres. Trump's move on Venezuelan oil: “VEN remains a wild card... its output gains will likely be modest [in 2026], ~300,000 barrels/day, due to deep structural damage in the soft & hard infrastructure of VEN’s...
10-year yield was sub 4% at the start of the war. Now it's over 4.4%. Worst month for $TLT since December 2024 https://t.co/OmX97S6MQ1
Just 130 ships have transited the Strait of Hormuz since the war began—barely a day’s worth of traffic under normal conditions. Nearly all have sailed for Asia, with none heading to Europe or the United States. H/T @_MartinKelly_
“The oil market is well-supplied” — US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. (… that’s quite a statement after the International Energy Agency had to make the largest ever use of his member’s strategic petroleum reserves…)
Japan imports 94% of its crude from the Middle East. 70% moves through the Strait of Hormuz. When oil spikes, Japan sells Treasuries to defend the yen. When Japan sells Treasuries, yields spike. When yields spike, everything breaks. Watch USD/JPY. $TLT $SPY https://t.co/8Vd43Ls5lB
The Iran War could end today and the shock would still unfold. The only questions are how big and for how long the shock will last.
Why the current set-up reminds @LizAnnSonders of 1990 (Gulf War + recession): - conflict in Middle East & spike in oil prices - economic & market dislocations - concerns about credit linked to Private Equity Apple🔊https://t.co/2dDJ3eD1p7 Spotify📽️https://t.co/gSpDwqSJC9 https://t.co/hNb5bSJvUv
Houthis warning they could get involved... Like the Strait of Hormuz they can control the Bab al-Mandeb, a similar chokepoint controlling access to and from the Red Sea
CPI in February: 2.4%. Cleveland Fed CPI forecast for March: 3.02%. PCE tracking toward 3.14%. Inflation isn't cooling. Inflation is re-accelerating. The Fed hiked into this once. They'll do it again. $TLT $SPY $QQQ https://t.co/2TPM7EbXp5
The 2-year Treasury yield (blue) is now > the Federal Funds Effective Rate (red) and CPI (green). If you believe the 2-Year leads the FFER, there's less likelihood of a rate cut anytime soon. https://t.co/73ZCycQNlj
You think the S&P 500 Index is too concentrated? Try going to another country for a while. The US is one of the *least* concentrated markets. Here's countries ranked by the % of market made up by top 10 biggest...
Kazakhstan–China Relations: Perceptions of China After the 2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Gaziza Shakhanova, 2026 https://t.co/lD5RrER3uG
"If this lasts longer than the four to five weeks that the president promised... this could do real and lasting damage." That's the whole game: duration turns a shock into an economic problem. https://t.co/dmeAL0v5ib
Lots of hints that Turkey has done a gold swap to raise FX to fund the central bank's intervention to defend the lira. It didn't show up in the CBRT's reserve disclosure for March 19th (reporting is lagged a week). ...
If you're interested in what an Iran oil embargo means, how it would work, how it would be enforced, how high oil prices might rise as a result, what would happen to Iran's economy, I discussed all this with @paulkrugman...
Kospi just dropped 3%+. South Korea doesn't move 3% for no reason. Yen carry trade stress. Japan buying yen. Selling Treasuries to do it. Asian contagion doesn't stay in Asia. Watch $EEM. Watch $FXI. $VIX $SPY https://t.co/M3BpoEWXWm
We’re now on the fourth or fifth Iran-driven market reversal this week. Mon: rally on ceasefire talk Tue: selloff after denial Wed: rally on U.S. peace plan Thu: selloff as Iran pushed back Hard to keep up, but put simply, pressure is building inside a...
"For the US, the OECD expects inflation to jump to 4.2% this year... Its price outlook for this year is 1.2 percentage point higher than in December, also because the labor market remains tight with slowing net migration and tariffs...
An investment boom in AI has kept China’s trade volumes on a path to exceed last year’s record levels, offsetting disruptions from higher oil prices in the weeks after war broke out in Iran https://t.co/L3nAViEgYs
Brent crude nearing $100. Citi's CIO says markets show "excessive optimism" on peace. Iran rejected the latest US proposal. 20% of global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. "Excessive optimism" is a polite way of saying: priced wrong. $OIL $XLE $SPY https://t.co/9YTglnhd8a
"Compared with February 2025, the import price index excluding petroleum climbed 2.8% — the most since October 2022 and suggesting the tariff burden is falling primarily on US importers." (The index here does not include tariffs.) https://t.co/BThM0jjJxj https://t.co/QmsfwHVOLd
Old man Trump can't remember whether he was supposed to bring prices down or up https://t.co/1NEJ3Ji5fF
There are five major forces that together, operate in a big cycle: - Financial force – money, debts, markets, economy - Domestic political force – internal order and disorder, wealth gaps, and conflict between the left and the right - International world order...
Bank credit growth seems to be back big time, with 15% growth at the end of Feb. While we have a global crisis on, the indicators earlier did see good signs. It could suck for a few months, but I...
DB: Sectors with higher AI adoption have shown a more significant deceleration in wage growth. @soberlook https://t.co/EGLX7QmA3x https://t.co/a0GkxtUZTB
🇺🇸U.S. export sales met or exceeded expectations last week. Mexico and Colombia led in corn sales, and Germany and Mexico were the leaders in soybeans for new outright sales (China topped net sales, and those were due to a switch...
Today’s podcast, ignore the morning hair, is about war time #economics. #oil #bonds #mortgagerates #chartdaddy @housingwire @sarahteresa6
Gold at $4,560. Real yields still elevated. Gold is supposed to fall when real yields rise. It's not falling. That's not a hedge. That's a warning. $GLD $TLT $SPY https://t.co/eAdLleClyB
This morning is offering a beautiful moment to see what I call "War Beta" - how price sensitive specific assets are to changes in Middle East tensions.
Key mistake the West made after Putin's invasion of Ukraine was not to embargo Russian oil. The result is that - more than 4 years later - Russia is still waging war with appalling loss of life. A short, sharp...
The headline is 4.2 % US INFLATION The real story is STAGFLATION Longer war = higher energy prices Higher energy prices = inflation + weaker growth The only uncertainty is how long it lasts. #OECD #Oil #Inflation #Stagflation #EnergyCrisis #Macro #Geopolitics #Growth #oott...
Now that cuts have been completely priced out through late 2026 into 1H 2027, long SOFR futures are extremely attractively priced. I do not believe hikes will happen as that would twist the knife into a global recession, so therefore...
Iran war just canceled a better economic outlook for the world https://t.co/4zqeIEwXkO via @CraigStirling @WHorobin https://t.co/hfVE77iQwZ
🧵Let me take you back to August 1990. Three weeks ago, Iraq invaded Kuwait, oil prices have surged, and the FOMC is meeting to decide how to respond. The economy looks wobbly. Payrolls just recorded a small decline. Greenspan talks...
The negotiations are going so well, Iran is so desperate for a deal and the US has already won the war... So, why is the Pentagon considering this?
From Liberation Day to the Strait of Hormuz, is global trade and world order going thru an upheaval? Will the world move go from bifurcation or trifurcation to fragmentation? Who will dominant? What would supply chains look like and operate...
Key pushback to a blockade is that it might spike oil prices. Iran's 2 million barrels per day could spike oil prices by 20% if they go offline, but - with Brent already up 60% from before the war -...
Six months ago: markets pricing 3+ rate cuts. Now: pricing 8bps of TIGHTENING. The Fed didn't pivot. The Fed reversed. 37% chance of ZERO cuts in 2026. This isn't a soft landing. This is a regime change. $SPY $TLT $QQQ https://t.co/UxC4Gdd51F
So far, HY credit spreads haven't widened anyway near as much as they should - given sustained oil prices & its large swings, not to mention supported high VIX & mechanical selling. Wait and see mode only lasts so long... Geopolitical shocks...
“NEVER FORGET”. Trump’s threat to NATO. And its countries. Tariffs. Then? What is Putin thinking? https://t.co/9rM5Qpfg8L
