Global Economy Social Media and Updates
Global Economy Social Media and Updates
Global Economy Pulse
EMAIL DIGESTS
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Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
Not often you see STIRs trying to price hikes and cuts at the same time, but that is the current level of uncertainty. What will dominate in the next few months, inflation or a growth slowdown? Get that correct and you are golden
UMich biggest sour swing since April 2025.. 1yr inflation expectations surge to 3.8%... but the long-term inflation outlook was down a tick https://t.co/jKnBGuulSH
U.S. consumers will be among the hardest hit by Trump’s tariff policies & the Iran war. The OECD raised its U.S. inflation estimation for this year to 4.2% — an increase of 1.2 percentage points, the 4th largest uptick among all...
US Consumer Sentiment just fell in March to 53.3, one of the lowest readings of all time. The only lower readings? Nov/Dec 2025 after longest gov't shutdown April/May 2025 after 'Liberation Day' tariffs June/July 2022 during inflation spike Americans are struggling to navigate all...
The consensus in early March was the war is a fade because geopolitics is always a fade. I wrote a piece titled: "am/FX: Too Many Faders" on March 2 outlining why it was way too early to fade an escalating...
The OECD warns that US inflation will surge to 4.2% this year. As I predicted, the inflation genie will not be put back in the bottle and will remain one of Trump’s Achilles’ heels.
For the first time in history, the UK could become a net importer of salt. https://t.co/LebKeoPpE6 https://t.co/SJkfWqLqVr
My view in the @EpochTimes on the US reducing reliance on Middle Eastern oil: “There is a strategic shift toward a more resilient Western Hemisphere energy bloc... through tighter integration of supply chains ... with Venezuela." https://t.co/DLlkE38yYS
China Hits Back at U.S. With New Trade Probes Ahead of Trump-Xi Summit Beijing responds to investigations by the U.S. that could raise tariffs @pstAsiatech: yes, Beijing will respond to every measure coming from within Beltway, every one.. https://t.co/XZraiO7f8W
How China Is Playing the Long Game With Trump China is always playing the long game... https://t.co/ca5y4Jpyct
"Let's just say on Friday we sign a cease fire and all hostilities cease. We are not going back to 60 bucks (per barrel). There's going to be a geopolitical risk premium built into the price of oil... You will...
The global investment community has been discussing the substantial impact of the war in Iran on the markets. Yet, the indices I follow, through Vanguard Group UK funds, show a decline of less than 10%. So far, most of the impact...
We are going to print so much money it’s disgusting. Buying BTC, ZEC, and SPY puts.
THE WEEKEND IS COMING. MARKETS ARE NERVOUS. HERE'S WHY Markets are cracking 📉 Gold up. Oil up. Stocks down. Traders are dumping before the weekend😬 Iran. Trade. Inflation The risk isn't going away it's building Here's what you need to know👇 https://t.co/7vLLHhW9RC
"The biggest supply disruption in history." The war in Iran has closed the straight of Hormuz, damaged energy infrastructure across the region, and sent shockwaves across the global oil & gas industry. It's so big, it's hard to get your...
EU sees risk of stagflation shock for Europe from Iran war https://t.co/bWePAfEpHo via @europressos https://t.co/GG5mzV8kVC
NEW w/ @bencasselman: Throughout a series of economic shocks that pushed up consumer prices in the past five years, Americans maintained faith that the Fed would eventually get inflation under control. The war with Iran presents another shock that is...
What matters in the short run: -Wars -Oil prices -Tariffs -Interest rates -Sentiment -A million other things What matters in the long run: -Earnings Speculators focus on the short run. Investors play the long game. https://t.co/u1oZkcMGCY
I'm quite nervous, and I spent 2 hours writing why you should be too. Consider: VIX has gone +60 twice in the last ~1.5 years. Once on a positioning debacle (Aug '24) and then again on the self-inflicted wound of April '25...
We need to embargo Iranian oil to end this war. Biggest risk from that isn't catastrophically higher oil prices, but vulnerabilities in US financial markets due to the basis trade in the Treasury market and private credit. Those are our...
B of A: “.. If Trump’s credibility is “structurally hit by Iran, then ability to jaw-jaw Wall St & force [foreign direct investment] inflows falls ..” [Hartnett] https://t.co/QF657J7op6
From Liberation to other trade threats is the US with the EU. Now here comes China to the EU. Trade upheaval? Maritime? What lies ahead?
ECB’s Wunsch says rate hike likely if war isn’t over by June https://t.co/DfO5yOLNdf via @FerroTV @lisaabramowicz1 https://t.co/rkEFK0fHSo
One-variable markets overwhelm classic market timing metrics like sentiment, technicals and valuation which are more useful in “normal” times. A composite of oil and rates (oil is driving rates too) tells you all you need to know about the direction...
Three scenarios for the Iran war and what they mean for Fed policy under new leadership. Plus eight key takeaways from the latest FOMC meeting. 🟢 Open https://t.co/Tx6udRxjvm
Soybean's $12 Ceiling Alongside $120 Crude Oil - It may take some combination of WTI crude oil staying above $100 a barrel, a poor Brazilian crop and a Corn Belt drought for soybeans to stay above $12 a bushel. Alongside...
The UST 2s5s steepener has been my 'white whale' trade the past year, facing constant pressure from shifting macro drivers. It was first flattened by the AI disruption trade, then crushed by the surge in front-end yields following the outbreak...
The Dollar and Oil are Bid: The dollar and oil remain firm. The market has a had muted reaction to President Trump’s announcement late yesterday that it will extend its pledge not to strike Iran’s energy infrastructure for ten days...
This is one of my favourite charts. It shows how the economy emerged from WW2 with a lot more worker power.. and then post-1979 neoliberalism crushed it. sorry folks, we aint gonna get another wage-price spiral https://t.co/KydXL5zIer
Gm, oil watchers Brent crude back above $110 this morning because—and stop me if you’ve heard this one—the Strait of Hormuz remains shut and the world oil market is losing 15 million barrels every day that remains true https://t.co/jg4V9IlWhv
Ahead of the weekend, amid the fog of war, risk appetites are restrained. Escalation to de-escalate? Is today the day the greenback pushes above $JPY160? PBOC sets $USD fix higher on weekly basis for the 1st time in...
The Effects of Higher Energy Prices CfM/NIESR survey: UK would experience greater negative effects than Euro Area: higher inflation & lower growth due to macro backdrop, fiscal/monetary policy responses & uncertainty over the conflict’s duration as reasons https://t.co/HG4SdveXNQ
“Ukraine risks running out of money to pay for its defense against Russia within two months as a multitude of factors converge to threaten tens of billions of euros in assistance from the country’s key donors. Kyiv currently has only enough...
China Initiates Probes Into U.S. Trade Practices—The Chinese commerce ministry said some U.S. trade measures may violate WTO rules and other economic and trade treaties @QinSherry https://t.co/f62n2UUsnP https://t.co/f62n2UUsnP
Reading this, all I can think is: what does it say about BoE “independence” if even considering its letter-writing model is deemed hyper controversial in the US? Moreover, I suspect a few former UK PMs would dispute the idea that...
Global Bond Yields continue to ramp higher alongside #Quad3 INFLATION Japan's 10yr ramped +11bps (thats a lot in a day) today joining the breakout in European and US Yields
So weird anyone is surprised by this. Time and time again, gold falls at the peak of a liquidity/financial crisis because people liquidate emergency supplies. Note Turkey. But then usually corrects higher once things stabilise (especially if Cbanks flood the...
Good Morning from Germany, where officials are warning that the Iran crisis could cut 2026 growth in half. Internal estimates suggest expansion of just 0.5% in a worst-case scenario, and 0.6% to 0.7% even under less severe assumptions of persistently...
Spanish inflation accelerates at fastest pace since 2024 on Iran war https://t.co/Po2qM4DdWA via @basteiro https://t.co/CpZxI7JwYZ
China is cutting LNG purchases as the Middle East conflict boosts prices 🇨🇳🚢 📉 March imports are poised to fall to lowest level in 8 years ⚠️ Instead of LNG, China is turning to domestic/pipeline gas. This will help free up supply...
Macro: politicization of money raises policy risk. Key factors: Trump to sign US bills, symbolic reflation tilt. Risks: polarization, FX volatility. Trade insight: hedge USD exposure. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Global risk isn’t evenly distributed. In 2026, a small group of countries - including Belarus, Lebanon, Sudan, and Venezuela - sit at the top of the global risk ranking, with premiums around 30.9%. At the other end, only 19 countries globally have risk levels below...
Onshore media just reported that: "Two container ships under China's COSCO Shipping Lines have turned back toward the Persian Gulf and have not yet passed through the Strait of Hormuz." I think this is a strategic mistake by Iran.
Iran-India fuel trade begins after strait open sesame, first LPG cargo due this week https://t.co/834nbwZFHx via @ETEnergyWorld
Bank of France chief says the country must continue cutting its deficit https://t.co/hlQK302LUB via @Alanrkatz https://t.co/jy5uVDlDMv
Europe’s economy is starting to feel pain from Trump’s Iran war https://t.co/CIvXuCML5t via @jrandow @weberalexander https://t.co/y98tnQWvQJ
94.27 on the USDINR. These are going to be rough times, and it's going to take time for flows to come back in
Supply Chain risk is financial risk. “The $30tn US Treasury market is showing growing signs of strain, as turmoil in the Middle East drives swings in bonds that underpin the financial system. The ease of trading in the world’s biggest...
A Picture Worth a Thousand Words: Saudi Crude Exports from Western Ports Continue to Rise https://t.co/fSDuoL9nVW
The complexity, uncertainty and fluidity of the Iran war’s impact on oil markets have made it increasingly challenging to compress analysis into 45-second soundbites in 5-7 minute TV interviews — though I’ve done my best over the past 4 weeks. So...
