Global Economy Social Media and Updates
Global Economy Social Media and Updates
Global Economy Pulse
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
Trump bragged that his tariffs are making so much money, he will be able to send stimulus checks to every American. The truth: tariff revenue is a drop in the bucket in reducing the federal deficit. Source: Peterson Institute
The market was pricing a 100% chance of rate cuts in February. That number is now 16%. The Fed put is dead.
US special envoy to the Middle East Witkoff says that Iran and US will hold talks soon https://t.co/TVVUeaYqaZ
Iran is processing ships at the Imam Khomeini port, located in Khuzestan at the northernmost extreme of the Gulf, near Kharg Island. So, for ships seeking passage approval from Iran, they have to sail all the way to the northern end...
As I mentioned on Wednesday, there is a $3 trillion gap between China's accumulated current account surplus since the pandemic and China's unchanged reserves (and a corresponding gap in visible flows into the US) Bank flows make up most of the...
Biggest euro-zone price jump since 2022 seen in first G-20 data https://t.co/kl1LZfnzhJ via @CraigStirling https://t.co/UT73y7yUEV
Hot take: the next drawdown won’t be “a recession.” It’ll be a liquidity accident. Dollar firm. FX carry crowded. Credit tightens quietly. Then everyone acts shocked. Markets don’t blow up from headlines. They blow up from plumbing. https://t.co/oS1ebUhkzJ
France unveils limited aid to offset Iran war impact on the economy https://t.co/CZX6WnRGfE via @WHorobin https://t.co/RaHs19PKsN
This chart is going to look at lot different a month from now. Global Inflation Rates... https://t.co/RrBw1EeUo3
In my view, markets are underestimating systemic risks of Middle East War and overestimating systemics risks of private credit
🇺🇸🇨🇳At the White House on Friday, Trump said: “American soybeans are now being shipped to China in record amounts.” Unless something unexpectedly changes, 2025/26 U.S. soybean exports to China are on track to be: ▪️a 19-year low ▪️down 58% from the five-year average...
"but the catastrophic consequences of the Strait remaining closed won't happen if the Strait reopens" https://t.co/iULTzt6N2d
Decent odds we see some export bans for key commodities where India can move global prices (eg rice, sugar)
When the S&P 500 falls ~31% on average, Gold has historically gained +6.5%. And right now? • S&P 500 is down ~5–6% in recent weeks • Nasdaq in correction territory • Oil > $100 and geopolitical risk rising This is exactly the type of...
Mortgage interest rates are hitting 7 percent and sellers are locked into COVID era mortgages that are in negative real interest rate territory. More charts and graphs featured on today's Chartbook Top Links in the comment below. https://t.co/jUHCvyVvDx
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: President Erdoğan fingered Netanyahu's gov't and Israel for “not only targeting Iran”, but also its “step by step implementation of plans to occupy Lebanon”, and its continuing “aggressive violations” of Syria’s sovereignty. https://t.co/M9KIHTZopA
Factful Friday is up! After a book-writing hiatus, it's back (and based on snippets from my forthcoming eBook, World War Trade). 👉Why didn’t Donald Trump’s tariffs melt down the world trade system? This Factful Friday, based on snippets from my...
OUT NOW - Former PIMCO Sovereign Credit Head on Iran War's global stagflation shock & risks for sovereign bonds. EM central banks don't have luxury of "seeing through" $100 oil - many will feel pressure to hike Apple 🔊https://t.co/FbjlbTwSHF Spotify📽️https://t.co/BWmky8uYIF https://t.co/eMPzAa5H18
Grab you lunch pails and get your hard hats on.... Global Macro gettin DICEY @fejau_inc @qthomp https://t.co/c1n3INbRN3
Quite a week to be @CERAWeek with Iran war and escalating energy crisis. And no one better to debrief with than the incomparable @JavierBlas. Check out my podcast with him recapping #CERAWeek and latest on Iran. https://t.co/OsJts3VLUQ
The EU should sever the link between gas and electricity costs to limit the fallout from the Iran war, the IEA has suggested 🇪🇺⚠️ In the European marginal pricing system, gas is the fuel that effectively sets the power price https://t.co/rvKWzsWwey
Remember this? After Kuwait's liberation, Iraq's oil revenues were placed in a UN escrow account, with the UN managing sales and purchases. Iraq paid about 30%—later reduced to 25% after 2000—for war reparations, while the UN kept 3% for administration...
Ferguson’s Law, proposed by Sir Niall Ferguson: when a great power spends more on debt service than on defense, it risks losing its status as a great power. The U.S. crossed that line. Net interest at ~3.1% of GDP exceeds defense at ~3.0%. DEBT...
If CPI were to trend up to 5% over the next year in the unlikely event that rbob futures kept rolling up to the current spot price...what is the 10 year yield and what has to happen to SPX earnings...
Not even a slight bounce on this headline. *US SIGNALS TO ALLIES NO IMMEDIATE PLANS FOR IRAN INVASION
Pleased to meet with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva (@KGeorgieva) to discuss the implications of the Middle East conflict for energy markets & economies around the world We agreed to continue to keep in close contact as we support governments in...
Thoughts? We discuss the emerging global energy crisis and fuel rationing measures being implemented worldwide. Countries like Slovenia and South Korea are implementing fuel rationing systems, while others are grounding flights and pushing work-from-home mandates to conserve energy. We explore...
30 year base in the Yen and it's about to breakout higher...US Dollar wrecking ball locked & loaded at the same time the geopolitics won't allow for a release of global dollar liquidity. @crossbordercap What say you?! @SantiagoAuFund What're you seeing? https://t.co/pGBvvssGL6
Oil may spike in 2026—but that’s not a new bull market. In a debt-heavy, fragile system, high prices don’t fuel growth—they crush it. This looks more like a spike that kills demand than a cycle that sustains it. LINK👇 https://t.co/kmq5wrQnHw #Oil #EnergyCrisis #Macro #Geopolitics #OilMarkets
For the first time since July 2024, $USD has pushed above JPY160. It almost reached JPY160.40, which we suggested was needed to confirm a breakout. The BOJ & MOF officials I have spoken with seem more sophisticated that draw an...
Oil & Interest rates, collectively, are single-handedly driving the equity market. The longer prices remain high, the flatter the slope will be WRT stocks. That means, smaller changes in oil/rates will have larger impacts on stocks. One reason this is...
I'm going to start doing a weekly livestream on Saturday mornings at 9 am (ET). Tomorrow will kick things off with a discussion of: (i) impact of an Iran embargo on oil prices; (ii) what's going on with gold and...
This is important 👇 1. USA is in Cold War with China 2. Europe is economically dependent on China. Something has to change because 1+2 is incompatible with a partnership, which is why the partnership is deteriorating
Thanks to Trump and Netanyahu's war on Iran, oil prices, jet fuel, and virtually everything under the sun, are taking a hit. US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN IS COSTING EVERYONE IN THE WORLD AN ARM AND A LEG. https://t.co/rjfW2er9UQ
An assessment of China's new Five-Year Plan from my @CarnegieEndow teammate @damienics who directs @CarnegieChina in Singapore.
A special shoutout to Fed guy @josephwang. During our chat Joseph gave a beautiful breakdown of the lagged effects of monetary policy and how that feeds into the current decision making framework and then 3 hours later when @fejau_inc interviewed...
Ed Yardeni warns the Fed could face a policy bind if the Iran war triggers stagflation, caught between its dual mandate. https://t.co/AEdPXCYmJy
In my latest Telegraph column I defend the dollar by channelling @TomCruise’s Maverick. To the claim that the dollar is probably headed for extinction, I say: Maybe so. But not today. https://t.co/lTW4ry33Lp https://t.co/q9PtKebSYk
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: President Erdoğan shouted from the rooftops: “in one of the world’s most strategic regions,” Turks, Arabs, Kurds and Persians have “lived together for centuries.” They have shared “the same fate and geography,” adding that “our future… will be together.”...
At the invitation of Eurogroup President Kyriakos (@Pierrakakis), today I addressed Finance Ministers from across the euro zone on the major energy market impacts of the war in the Middle East and the immediate options to support energy and economic...
Stagflation is written all over this move today. Gold decisively decoupling from overall equities and rising in step with oil and other hard assets. So much for the liquidation narrative — it’s gone completely quiet now. Don’t believe everything you read....
Very important client post. The Bullwhip Economy 💫Not Stagflation. Hyperinflation. 💫Gold Hedges Stagflation - Not A Bullwhip Economy 💫Some Key Topping Charts https://t.co/Jqx8pnT5Ti
My take on the Chinese five year plan and the rise of "high quality" as approximating a "Xi Doctrine" on the economy - for @CarnegieEndow Emissary @CarnegieChina The TL:DR version: - For Xi, innovation-driven economy > consumption driven economy. -...
g7 foreign ministers meeting in france today. on the agenda: stop the war, end iran's nuclear program, reopen the strait of hormuz. also on the agenda, implicitly: explain to allies why the us launched this war without telling them and ask...
This is important especially since US and China are the only countries able to ‘police’ the strait of Hormuz
US DEBT HAS HIT $39T AND IS CLIMBING. As I wrote in Fortune with Dave Walker, former US Comptroller General, US Treasury data show, black on white, that Uncle Sam is INSOLVENT. https://t.co/qKKcJtEuEk
FWIW - With or without further increases in oil prices, should consumer confidence around the globe continue to fall, and "Me Here Now" thinking really set in, it is hard not imagine local policymakers being pressured by voters to dump...
genuinely think the BoJ needs to emergency hike. don’t toy with the idea of shorting oil futures (you don’t have the juice for that). Ueda—the JGB steepening can end if you have the courage to do what’s right. https://t.co/cHO1FRRfAf
No better timing than to have @LukeGromen as my guest tonight on The Danny Moses Show @scrippsnews at 7PM ET. We discuss the impact that the war in Iran is having on global markets & what we should be watching....
Not often you see STIRs trying to price hikes and cuts at the same time, but that is the current level of uncertainty. What will dominate in the next few months, inflation or a growth slowdown? Get...
