U.S. Retail Electricity Prices Surge Ahead of CPI
American retail electricity prices are running very far ahead of CPI - striking report by Grace Fan featured on today's Chartbook Top Links in the comment below. https://t.co/JRfEtYTzPA
US Blockade Sparks Panic, Capital Flight, Rial Collapse
An underappreciated channel of how the US blockade works is to cause panic and capital flight in Iran. That's why the Rial is falling sharply. A country like Iran sees its currency as a status symbol, so they'll have resisted...
Japan's Massive Yen Intervention Ineffective Amid BoJ Bond Buying
On Wednesday night, I wrote my usual post flagging the risk Japan would intervene and it did later that night. Its intervention is reportedly as big as in 2024. This didn't work in 2024 and it won't now as the...
US Blockade Stalls Iran, Keeps Oil Prices Stable
Iran's most potent weapon is to cause an uncontrolled rise in oil prices and panic in global financial markets. It hasn't been able to do that, even though the US blockade of Iranian oil is now 3 weeks old. That's...
Key Global Central Bank Moves and Election Watch Ahead
Week Ahead: RBA hikes, Banxico cuts. UK local elections. US April jobs data. Be prepared: https://t.co/Eo3ZubYqLB https://t.co/RS94rNYlVS
Mideast Energy Crisis Pushes Fed Toward Dovish Stance
Being a Fed dove in 2025: Here’s why we should cut Being a Fed dove in 2026: Here’s why we don’t need to hike How the Mideast energy crisis is reshaping the Fed’s debate
Iran's True Inflation Hits 116% Annually, Not 67%
Iran’s Central Bank reports its inflation rate is 67%/yr. WRONG. Today, using high-frequency data, I measure Iran’s inflation rate at a PUNISHING 116%/yr. I remain the only reliable source for inflation measurements in Iran. YOU WON'T FIND THIS IMPORTANT STORY IN THE MEDIA. https://t.co/W81HmL3Xvp
Retailers Can Convert Business Tariff Refunds Into Consumer Discounts
Tariff refunds go to businesses—not consumers. What retailers do next matters. Get the analysis in my latest Forbes post. Consumers Won’t See Tariff Refunds. Smart Retailers Will Turn Them Into Price Cuts via @forbes https://t.co/W96biHFB6h
Euro Adoption Triggers Bulgaria's Inflation Surge, Proves Costly
Bulgaria’s inflation EXPLODED to 7.1%/yr in April from 3.9%/yr in March. As the Father of Bulgaria’s currency board, I predicted an inflation SURGE with the introduction of the euro. EURO INTRODUCTION = BAD MOVE. https://t.co/kTXEo9l5sO
Polish Central Bank Boosts Gold Reserves to 580 Tons
The Polish Central Bank increased its total GOLD stock to 580 TONS. The Poles aim to increase their supply to 700 TONS. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/FS59nEyW50
Central Banks Grapple with Massive Inflation‑Growth Dilemma
From Jeff Sommer's article, "The World’s Central Banks Are Wrestling With a Gigantic Problem." #economy #markets #centralbanks @nytimes #inflation #growth
Short‑Duration IG Bonds Preferred Amid Slowing Growth
Macro: global growth slows, rates stay elevated. Key factors: Fed policy, China demand, oil. Risks: inflation shocks, geopolitics. Trade: favor short-duration IG bonds over cyclicals. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
US-Israeli Conflict Could Cost Pakistan Up to $68 Billion
#PAKWatch🇵🇰: According to Ali Salman, head of the Policy Research Institute of Market Economy (PRIME), the US-Israeli war in Iran is set to COST Pakistan $10 BILLION to $68 BILLION. PAKISTAN SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR DAMAGES TO TRUMP & NETANYAHU. https://t.co/WqbiHpkSQo
Europe's GDP Slips as Anti‑Russia Policies Hurt Growth
Europe’s already WEAK GDP annual growth rate continues to SLIDE DOWN. It fell from 1.2% in Q4 2025 to 0.8% in Q1 2026. The RUSSOPHOBES IN EUROPE ARE COMMITTING ECONOMIC SUICIDE. https://t.co/AlquDmhRVP
US Auto Tariff Spike Threatens €30bn German Loss
US auto tariff shock hits Germany: IfW sees €15bn output hit now, €30bn longer-term as US raises auto tariff to 25%. Risk: export slowdown. Trade: reduce German auto equity exposure. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Billionaire Tax Threatens Capital Flight, Cut CA Tech
CA Nov vote on 5% billionaire wealth tax (> $1bn) could net ~$100bn. Macro: redistribution vs flight. Risk: ultra‑wealth exodus & legal fights. Trade: cut CA tech exposure; hedge S&P. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Bangladesh Surpasses Pakistan in GDP Per Capita Since 2008
#PAKWatch🇵🇰: Bangladesh, formerly East Pakistan, has outpaced Pakistan in GDP per Capita growth since 2008. IN PAK, THE MILITARY RUNS THE SHOW. PAKISTAN MILITARY MISMANAGEMENT = PAKISTAN IN THE TANK. https://t.co/8m2iqVCHhy
Oil Crisis Deepens: Shrinking Stocks Guarantee Higher Prices
From the article in The Economist on "The crisis in oil markets will get bigger before it goes away: As stocks dwindle, further price rises are inevitable." #economy #oil #energy #markets @theeconomist
South Korea's Productivity Surge Outpaces Stagnant Japan
South Korea’s GDP per capita outpaces Japan’s by a CONSIDERABLE MARGIN. Between 2008 and 2025, South Korea's labor productivity has grown by 1.53%/yr, while Japan’s productivity has flatlined at 0.03%/yr. SOUTH KOREA IS LEAVING JAPAN IN THE DUST. https://t.co/kTHWpeVX96
China's 'Teapot' Refineries Aid Iran Amid U.S. Pressure
China’s ‘Teapot’ Refiners, Targeted by U.S., Offer Financial Lifeline to Iran—Sector that once rebelled against Beijing grows into a critical tool for working around sanctions @BrianSpegele https://t.co/kjTCM9IgX4 https://t.co/kjTCM9IgX4
China Lifts Tariffs on All African Imports Except One
"China has now dropped tariffs on imports from every African country except 1" 😔 https://t.co/YKeyJNxXts
US War on Iran Costs $25B, Seeks $200B
My take @FortuneMagazine on the cost of the US-Israeli war on Iran: "Operation Epic Fury has burned through $25 billion so far. That's just the tip of the iceberg. The White House has requested a supplemental budget of $200 billion for its...
Strait Closure Threatens Escalating Pain for EMDEs
I wrote about this here. https://t.co/6nvDEd9BSJ The pain is felt most acutely now in EMDEs. But make no mistake, much more pain is headed our way if strait remains closed.
China’s Post‑2008 Growth Beats U.S., Redefining Exceptionalism
Forget America’s exceptionalism. Since 2008, all the action has been in China. I wonder if Xi will show Trump the accompanying chart when they meet on May 14 & 15? CHINA = GROWTH EXCEPTIONALISM. https://t.co/Ijn7BPdUxb
Trump Threatens 25% Tariffs on EU Cars over Trade Dispute
Trump says he will hike tariffs on EU cars to 25% 🚨 The US president accused the EU of "not complying with our fully agreed to trade deal" in a post on Truth Social, but did not explain how? @champ_trader
Strait of Hormuz Closure Cuts 10M Barrels Daily
According to the World Bank’s NEW Commodity Markets Outlook report, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz wiped out around ~10 MILLION BARRELS/DAY of global oil supply. This is the LARGEST DISRUPTION ON RECORD https://t.co/ERT2BN8SaZ
Foregone Gulf Oil Costs Exceed $60 Billion
Cost of foregone Gulf oil production alone—not counting LNG, fertilizer, helium supply chain consequences—is currently valued at $60+ billion.
Saudi's Spending Cut Signals Shift in Regional Power
What the End of Saudi Arabia’s Big-Spending Era Means for the Kingdom and Beyond https://t.co/9iRmQ5paso
Argentina's Money Supply Shrinks as Global Credit Bloats
Argentina is the only country where money supply is contracting at a double-digit rate. Meanwhile, the rest of the world continues to expand credit with little to no monetary discipline. None of us own enough hard assets. https://t.co/7n3N1S2a1W https://t.co/mVU3eZcLRN
Investors Eye Venezuela Amid Legal and Political Uncertainty
Summary of my 24 hours on the ground in #Venezuela. Investors/potential investors are visiting, but the country's legal/regulatory framework and political/democratic future (Delcy Rodriguez ducked a question on the timeline for elections) continue as large areas of concern... 👇🏼
Live: Japan's FX Intervention Misread, US Leads Standoff
I'm doing a livestream tomorrow morning at 9 am to discuss Japan's latest FX intervention, which is as "lost in translation" as always. I'll also give an update on the US blockade and where we now stand. The US is...
Strong Private Sector Essential for Funding Social Programs
Hot take: You cannot fund great social programs without a thriving private sector. In Canada: Over 60% of taxes are paid by the top 20% of earners. If we want better schools, health care, and innovation, we need more builders creating taxable value. https://t.co/qwr8lXrBsr
AI Drives Nearly Half of Recent GDP Growth
Per @sonusvarghese, over the past 5 quarters GDP has averaged 2.0%. 0.90% of that (so 45%) has come from AI hardware/software spending. Wow. https://t.co/aiia8rSNZ2
US‑Iran Talks Stall, Oil Stocks Dip Another 100 M Barrels
Every weekend half my feed expects a sudden breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations and the other half expects a sharp resumption of bombings. Of course, the most likely outcome is that absolutely nothing changes and we do this again next week, down...
High LNG Prices Curb China's Imports, Freeing Supply Globally
Zero signal about China here China is a discretionary LNG importer. It can generate with dirtier domestic coal if needed. High prices generally mean lower imports. Helps globally -- China is freeing up LNG for folks...
US Stocks Beat Gold as Inflation Hedge
“The best hedge against inflation has historically been US equities:” GS’s Mossavar-Rahmani. Gold isn’t a good hedge for inflation or deflation “so the idea that gold is something you need to have in your portfolio is something we totally disagree...
Crude Prices Surge as Iran War Persists, UAE Exits OPEC
🛢️ OIL & IRAN WAR CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ Crude prices climb amidst ongoing deadlocked diplomacy, the third month of the Iran War, breaching the billion lost barrel threshold, and the UAE announcing an abrupt departure from OPEC. Summary below, link to full...
Hormuz Closure Threatens Solar Aluminium Supply Chain
How the closure of the Strait of Hormuz affects solar aluminium sourcing #energysky -- via pv-tech: https://t.co/NvUU88jGsi
Premium Users: May 1 Macro Week Review & Preview
Premium Users - Macro Week in Review/Preview May 1, 2026, on the blog and here https://t.co/iqBACHDibD
Balanced Budget and 5% Surplus Eradicates Inflation
Balance the budget now and then establish a 5% surplus so we can start paying down this monstrosity. Inflation will instantly disappear when we do this.
Venezuela Tops 2025 Misery Index After Decade‑long Collapse
Since 2008, Venezuela’s economy has COLLAPSED. No wonder Venezuela ranks as THE WORLD’S MOST MISERABLE COUNTRY in Hanke's 2025 Annual Misery Index. https://t.co/AHMhvhy5Ac
Higher Oil Prices Will Cripple Demand, Stalling Rises
"no, oil prices won't rise because demand will be destroyed due to rising prices.." https://t.co/pBEj3OkRN5
Tariff Flip-Flops Reveal Trump’s Policy Inconsistency
Yesterday, Trump lifted UK whiskey tariffs that were supposedly (by law) about a "balance of payments" crisis. Today, he's imposing EU automotive tariffs that were supposedly (by law) about "national security". It's all so manifestly ridiculous.
Jackson Hole Speech Marks Most Hawkish Remarks Yet
His speech at Jackson Hole that year is the most hawkish speech in the entire corpus IIRC
Blockade Needed to Cut Off Dangerous Oil Exporters
I first proposed a blockade on March 16, one month before it got announced. Whatever you think of Trump, he's right on this. Only way to counter a dangerous oil exporter is to cut off its lifeblood. That's what 4...
US Blockade Pressures Iran, Mirroring Hormuz Tactics
The US blockade aims to do two things: (i) give Iran a taste of its own medicine for blockading the Strait of Hormuz; (ii) send Iran’s economy into a tailspin and thereby bring the regime to the negotiating table in...
China Still Dominates US Soybean Exports Despite Low Volumes
🇺🇸🇨🇳Even though China.... ✔️Didn't start buying until late October ✔️Has secured the smallest U.S. tonnage in 19 years .... it's still by FAR the leading destination for U.S. soybean exports so far in 2025/26, a reminder of how hard China is to replace...
Fedlock's Hawkishness Score Climbs Sharply with Recent Statements
As discussed below, Fedlock's aggregate hawkishness score continues to rise noticeably, with the latest communication from Kashkari, Powell, and Hammack all registering high relative to their recent comms https://t.co/b7k8lndodx
Unemployment Risks May Prompt Fed Rate Hike
BNP PARIBAS: “.. downside risks to the unemployment rate may be underappreciated. This brings with it a growing tail risk that the Fed could consider hiking rates later this year.” https://t.co/ax6DWAd2eV
Rising Asian Conflict Threatens Overseas Tech Infrastructure Supply
I can’t help to wonder how much of this infra is created overseas and the potential risk of conflict rises in Asia. Chips. Servers. PCB. PCA. Power. Etc.