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Global Economy Pulse
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Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
Many things are happening simultaneously. War in the Middle East is spiking oil prices, gold has fallen and all the uncertainty is pushing up long bond yields, like in Japan where they're back to the highs. I'll talk about all this at 9 am (ET) today... https://t.co/kKkBHgXIgT https://t.co/5a5tcAkVrE
Gulf tensions rise, hitting flows. Maersk halted Salalah after crane damage; 48h outage. Risk: supply delays, Strait Hormuz disruption. Trade: hedge shipping via freight volatility. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
John Keegan’s 'The Face of Battle' is a masterpiece of war literature. He moves from Agincourt to Waterloo, then the Somme, showing the shift from a small hand-to hand battlefield to a larger area defined by the range of cannon...
New monthly drops. https://t.co/FItBCcQzTd Trade wars, kinetic wars, and anticipated policy responses ripple through the capital markets. Optimism of short war contrasts with pricing in aggressive CB policy. https://t.co/qPeHeyxa7a
I joined Zanny Minton Beddoes on @TheEconomist’s Insider show for a conversation on the impact of the war in the Middle East on Europe and its economy, and the key challenges Europe faces in today’s fast-moving global environment. Watch an excerpt...
Many such cases 🇺🇸 🚢 Asian and European LNG buyers are chasing the limited number of shipments still available from US suppliers after the world’s largest export plant in Qatar was shut Importers from Japan and Germany are among those in...
With Houthis entering the war, Cape of Good Hope may soon be the Cape of Only Hope. Countries already facing physical energy shortages are staring at even longer transport schedules, and higher costs. Some useful background from 2024 here: https://t.co/K1abD0tYoN.
UK inflation could undershoot its 2% target if the BOE raises rates as much as financial markets currently expect, according to a Barclays analysis based on forecasting assumptions used by the central bank https://t.co/vOjS0R1gt1 via @tomelleryrees https://t.co/FRWivDYG3b
Good Damien Ma piece on Xi Jinping's efforts to shift the Chinese economy from extensive growth (generate growth by increasing labor, capital and resource inputs) to intensive growth (generate growth by using labor, capital and resource inputs more efficiently). For...
China will open nickel and lithium futures to foreign investors, aiming to strengthen global metals pricing power. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/china-nickel-and-lithium-futures.html
@KirkusReviews , 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐥𝐞𝐚𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐛𝐨𝐨𝐤 𝐫𝐞𝐯𝐢𝐞𝐰 𝐦𝐚𝐠𝐚𝐳𝐢𝐧𝐞 𝐟𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 1933, 𝐰𝐞𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐚’𝐬 90% 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐥. Kirkus describes the book as “𝐚𝐧 𝐞𝐧𝐠𝐚𝐠𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐮𝐧𝐬𝐞𝐭𝐭𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐧𝐚𝐫𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐂𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐚’𝐬 𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐜 𝐩𝐥𝐚𝐲𝐛𝐨𝐨𝐤.” The review highlights how China has built industrial capacity to meet 90%...
#TurkeyWatch🇹🇷: It's hard to beat gold as a central bank reserve. Turkey is reportedly using its HOARD of gold reserves in swap operations to obtain liquidity and defend the Turkish Lira. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/rVUGXc6WeD
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: Japanese investment in India’s financial sector has hit a RECORD HIGH. In 2025, Japanese firms invested $8.8 BILLION in Indian businesses. That’s FOUR TIMES the amount invested in 2024. GOOD NEWS FOR INDIA. MORE FDI = MORE GROWTH. https://t.co/C27VI2pF62
Thailand has reached a deal with Iran to allow Thai tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. “An agreement has been reached to allow Thai oil tankers to transit safely through the Strait of Hormuz," Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul said...
Hormuz oil "We don't have any alternatives at all, and we should not talk about alternatives," says @asasalhajii Any questions? No. Now, what should we talk about? #Oil #Energy #Reality #Geopolitics
How Trump’s Tariffs Are Choking U.S.-China Trade—Chinese share of American imports drops to lowest level since 2001, but overall U.S. goods trade deficit rises @hannahmiao_ @CloudberryRoque https://t.co/tWBXJwnAkx https://t.co/tWBXJwnAkx
No military operation or policy can replace 20% of global oil supply At some point, price stops listening to narratives, says @JasonBordoff End of discussion #Oil #EnergyMarkets #Hormuz #Geopolitics
Many have given great interpretations of China's 15th five year plan. My read is a little different: "For one, lower growth targets will likely be a norm rather than a surprise. Moreover, it implies China is likely at the beginning of...
The Dow just entered correction territory. Down 10% from its peak, joining the Nasdaq. The S&P 500 posted its fifth straight losing week — longest since 2022. Oil blew through $100. Futures traders now price a 52% chance the Fed...
🚨 CRYPTO DAILY — MARCH 27, 2026 The oil safety valve just broke. Iran closed Hormuz. Trump lifted Russian sanctions to fill the gap. Then Ukraine drone-struck Russian oil ports, knocking out 40% of Baltic export capacity. Brent hit $110. The...
It looks like the war's winners so far are Russia, Iran and Texas oil & gas exporters... Russia benefits from high prices, waived sanctions, and a distracted world. Iran benefits from high prices, waived sanctions, and the realization (by them and...
For thought leaders.. ♦️No one should compare the current 2026 Hormuz Crisis to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. These are apples and "orange bulldozers"! ♦️I challenge anyone to prove that the spectacular rise in oil prices in 2022 was...
♦️It’s important to remember where we stood in early February compared to now. ♦️Here’s why: 🔹Before the Hormuz crisis, the expectation was for Brent crude to remain range-bound in the $60s, with only occasional spikes. 🔹Once the dust settles — a couple...
Trump delays Iran attacks to 6 April, but Strait of Hormuz risk keeps oil and supply chains on edge. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/trump-delays-iran-attacks-as-strait-of.html
Elaborating on my view that we are nearing the end of China's deployment super cycle that defined five consecutive five year plans from 2001-2025. One major reason? The persistent pattern of involution comes at the expense of innovation. The latter...
Gas prices in Europe are running 50-70% above normal, and the Qatar LNG facility attack hit infrastructure will take decades to rebuild. @8eanmurray from @fuseenergy says markets are pricing this as a blip. He thinks they're wrong. @Steven_Ehrlich @bitsandbips https://t.co/DwMsHVSFmY
Feels to me like the effects of Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil and diesel export capacity is underappreciated by the market.
Personally I think you are right Tom. Never fight the Fed is a good policy. Of course the dominant factor in 2008 was mortgage bubble. Only possibility now would be connected with Dalio's Great Reset and related issues
My 7-minute download on the impact of AI on the economy, labor and our political and economic system. Excerpt from Economic Club of New York: https://t.co/OJrFlzkssy
Food cost will increase 60-100% because of the fertilizer crisis Right now it’s a cost problem. Within weeks, it becomes a supply problem. Within months, it becomes a yield problem. https://t.co/2wsjnUcnaH #EnergyCrisis #FoodSecurity #Fertilizer #Inflation #Geopolitics
WSJ: How Trump’s Tariffs Are Choking U.S.-China Trade (with AMAZING charts) by @hannahmiao_ & @CloudberryRoque 🤓 👉🏻 https://t.co/vNeIUWWiqm https://t.co/GB3I7d35ly
The facilities in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman account for roughly 9% of global primary aluminum. This is going to tighten supply for many key global industries like construction, vehicles, and aerospace. #aluminum #iranwar #geopolitics https://t.co/qO2ERCGHMN
Also 19 data dogs at the FOMC table waiting for the Econ briefing to begin
After years of tariffs on Chinese clean technology, experts say Beijing’s trade investigation is meant to send a signal to the US https://t.co/IzynmFMKWs
New at THE OVERSHOOT: Russia's Iran War Windfall in Perspective https://t.co/YgLaalkQxU As long as financial sanctions and export controls remain in place, the aggressor's gains from higher oil and gas prices will be limited. https://t.co/MWwrDIs9pR
Fears of re-accelerating inflation obliterating balanced portfolios, just like they did in 2022. https://t.co/S7laKGwQLC https://t.co/oLsV6wsuXf
Nasdaq officially in correction territory as rates push higher and geopolitical tensions keep markets on edge. We break down what’s driving the volatility, key levels to watch, and how to navigate this swing trading environment in this week's episode $SPY $QQQ $IEF...
Another big client post this weekend: Countdown To A Global Energy Crisis & Recession 💫The AI Bubble Is Bursting 💫Liquidity Is Leaving. Semis Are Done Going Up 💫Higher Oil, Dollar & Yields As Tech Wrecking Ball 💫Tail Risk Is Still Rising 💫Countdown To A Global Energy...
Cuba is being worn down by the relentless US blockade, shown by this chart on the Economist. More featured on today's Chartbook Top Links in the comment below. https://t.co/WP5T7dRmAp
It’s official. Agricultural commodities have broken through a nearly 20-year resistance level. I expect this move to accelerate from here. When energy moves, agriculture tends to follow — it’s a natural lag in the macro setup. Be mindful of the social and political consequences...
.@grok what do you think the answer is for possible rate hikes in 2026, as opposed to the three cuts? 1. Wars 2. Tariffs 3. Stopping illegal, and dirt cheap, immigration
FWIW - This column I wrote for @FT back in 2022 on the consequences of a marked-to-market economy seems even more relevant today given how top-heavy it has become. https://t.co/5a53albeSu
"Gulf countries are increasingly frustrated with the US over the Iran war, privately questioning American security guarantees and expressing concern about the Trump administration’s apparent lack of strategy..." https://t.co/dmcHthBwRz
Per @grok If 2026 plays out like the 1970s oil shock (Nixon Pres): Stocks: S&P crashes another 40%+ (total ~45-50% drawdown) Oil: $150–$200+/bbl as Hormuz pain drags Rates: Fed funds rips to double digits (teens possible)
The Iran war has crippled Middle East production/shipments of fertilitizer and upstream inputs, threatening global food supplies. That could be bad for rich countries - and disastrous for poor ones. https://t.co/YLuPd0NrWM https://t.co/FPLfLjAOYy
🛢️ OIL & IRAN WAR CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ Crude prices rose modestly on the week after recovering from a Trump jawbone-driven rout on Monday given no real resolution to the Hormuz stoppage, and term structure keeps getting tighter. Summary below, link to...
Beijing’s commerce ministry said on Friday it was initiating two probes of its own looking into the US Section 301 investigations into China. by @leahyjoseph, Tina Hu & @AsiaLens https://t.co/LI97xXyn8V
How the west was won, the MidEast was lost & $4100/oz gold held https://t.co/VJQ1W1pdz5 #forex #XAUUSD $GLD
"Chemicals companies on the front lines of the inflationary shock are aggressively raising prices on disruptions from the four-week-old war... The price increases are already kicking off a chain reaction." https://t.co/E16JDzEqwM https://t.co/Ttbur0ru2f
"The U.S. goods trade deficit with China shrank 32% to $202 billion last year..., the narrowest since 2005. Yet the overall U.S. goods trade deficit grew 2.1% to a record $1.24 trillion because U.S. importers shifted rapidly to other markets"...
