UAE’s OPEC Exit Threatens Oil Price Collapse, Recession
Think oil prices are too high? Wait til they completely collapse and send us into an oil-based recession. The UAE’s exit from OPEC is very bad news https://t.co/TqXUsn8Djw
Debunking the China Shock 2.0 Hysteria
Easily the best and most comprehensive takedown of the current "China Shock 2.0" hysteria that I've seen so far. (tl;dr in the screenshots) Strongly recommended. "Should we be scared of China's surpluses?" https://t.co/RSBXkN5WX3 https://t.co/z6TS8YwaNV
Domestic Shale Keeps US Gas Cheap; Europe Pays Import Premium
The Shale Revolution gave US producers access to abundant domestic natural gas, which is why America can maintain low natural gas prices even amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Europe's natural gas prices, by contrast, are suffering because Europe banned fracking and...
Tariff Refund Quest Reveals Billions Likely Unrecoverable
"He recorded his quest for tariff refunds. It shows why billions may never get repaid" https://t.co/pbKa6Zq9Ev https://t.co/GekjOsX5QF
Multiple Macro Forces Make Equities Irresistibly Bullish
Timeless and universal really bullish equity drivers 1. Companies don't need any money from capital markets and in fact are aggressive buyers of their own debt and equity. 2. Budget deficits are expanding YoY at a pace in excess of Nominal GDP...
US Bond Market Endures Record 69-Month Drawdown
The US Bond Market has now been in a drawdown for 69 months, by far the longest in history. https://t.co/Y1cdWffv71
Japan's Growing Frustration Over 101 U.S. Bases
Many Japanese are also fed up with the fact that the US has 101 military bases in Japan. That's second only to Germany, which is home for 118 US military bases. https://t.co/2vZKRWfr7Y
China Relies on Food Imports Far More than US or EU
China is far more dependent on imported food/feed than either the US or the EU. In a world of "food regimes", this is a highly unusual and unique development. https://t.co/5797bIqtl7
Americans Rapidly Reject US‑Israeli War on Iran
Trump’s war in Iran has reached Iraq/Vietnam era disapproval levels in RECORD TIME. THE US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN = RECEIVES THUMBS DOWN FROM THE AMERICAN PUBLIC. https://t.co/iCGpZF0VZS
Stocks Rise if Growth Outpaces Inflation
Great chart. The bigger question is whether growth soars more than inflation? What do stocks do if growth keeps surprising to the upside?
Foreign Buyers Paying Premium Keeps U.S. Stock Draws Steep
Of course, there is no additional oil, beyond the SPR release—just the rest of the world still willing to pay more than Americans for American barrels, at least for now. So long as that’s true, more steep stock draws cometh. https://t.co/BvLo10lL0S
2021‑22 Price Shock Evolved Into Broad Inflation Wave
How the price shock of 2021-2022 mutated into a more comprehensive wave of inflation. More on this in the Chartbook Top Links of today. https://t.co/5s8MaZvyqK
US Auto Industry Faces $5 B Supply‑Chain Shock
Supply chain hell for US auto firms. Detroit carmakers warn of $5bn commodities shock due to Iran war. Sector faces rising prices for supplies from aluminium to plastics and paint
Egg‑centric Analysis: Politicians Cherry‑pick, Not Forecast
When politicians zoom in from the whole economy to one carton of eggs, that's not a macro forecast. That's culinary cherry-picking. https://t.co/NCWLFtPggO
China May Begin Food Decoupling, FT Data Shows
Is China about to decouple on food? Riffing on a piece in the FT in the latest chartbook this morning. https://t.co/a0lMMdOOgC https://t.co/fqNWpHCXJi
Overbuilding Ports Won’t Break China’s Supply Chain Grip
Trying to avoid China’s grip on global supply chains. Ships/shipping. Ports. Port equipment. Made in China. Decades of abandoning to China. Geopolitics. Choke points. Over build in ports. Dreams of logistic hubs. Logistics fragmentation. Capital misspend. No real answers.
Aramco May Push OSP Release to June 7‑8
The V7, the group of 7 in OPEC+ will meet on June 7. Historically, they met earlier than the 5th of each month and Aramco issues its OSPs on the 5th. Reason? Two meetings are scheduled that day:...
V7 Lifts OPEC+ Output Ceiling by 188,000 Bpd
OPEC+ group of 7, which I call now "V7," decided to increase production ceiling by 188 kb/d. Link: https://t.co/ENROe7PQye https://t.co/5nt5jnaFhJ
Swiss April Inflation Expected at 0.6%, Easing SNB Pressure
Switzerland’s April inflation is due on Tuesday, with economists anticipating an outcome of 0.6%, the highest since 2024. Such a result may lessen pressure on the SNB to intervene to curb inflows into the franc https://t.co/GMc7ens4Ew via @CraigStirling https://t.co/Exax6VfThi
Investing in Infrastructure Can Reduce Germany’s Debt Burden
Germany's reluctance to invest in productive infrastructure isn't a sign of thriftiness, nor does it help Germany keep its debt burden low. If the investment is productive – i.e. if it creates more economic value than it costs in economic...
Turkey's Money Supply Outpaces Target, Fueling Loose Policy
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: CBRT's Apr. survey has Turkey’s year-end inflation expectations at 27.53%/yr. T’s Money Supply grows at 39.9%/yr. That's well above Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 23.4%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting T’s inflation target of 16%. T’S MONETARY POLICY = LOOSE. https://t.co/iHtsm4n7T8
Japan's Crude Shortage Forces Rare Mexican Purchases
Japan needs Canadian crude oil, but can’t get it. Why? There’s no additional export capacity. That’s why Japan is making rare purchases of crude from Mexico.
Turkey Set to Become Largest Muslim-Majority Economy by 2026
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) projects Türkiye’s nominal GDP at $1.64T in 2026. That makes Turkey the largest among Muslim-majority economies. Turkey is ahead of both Indonesia ($1.54T) and Saudi Arabia ($1.39T). https://t.co/45COZWtS4b
China Openly Defies US Sanctions on Iranian Oil
China just drew a line. Blocked U.S. sanctions on teapots buying Iranian oil—and said “we’re not complying.” This isn’t evasion anymore. It’s defiance. #Oil #China #Iran #Sanctions #Geopolitics https://t.co/o4XeTSNbjb
Trump's Hormuz Blockade Halts Kuwait's Oil Sales
Thanks to the Trump Administration’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, KUWAIT CANNOT SELL OIL. https://t.co/p41AG1m4AD
Libya's Oil Revenues Triple, Currency Gains 34% Amid Iran War
Since the start of the Iran war, Libya’s oil revenues have nearly TRIPLED, from $1 billion in February to $2.9 billion in April. Not surprisingly, in the Feb-April period, the Libyan dinar has appreciated by 34% vs. the USD. LIBYA = ONE...
Trump’s Hormuz Blockade Tanks Philippine Peso, Fuels Global Animosity
Thanks to Trump’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the Philippine peso has tanked. TRUMP = A MASTERCLASS IN HOW TO MAKE ENEMIES. https://t.co/gs3D9z92mY
Fed Cautious After 3.5% PCE, Buy
Fed cautious after PCE 3.5%: services inflation and oil/geopolitics lift risks; divided FOMC delays cuts. Trade: buy short‑duration Treasuries. —Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Fed Split, Japan's Massive Yen Defense, Markets on Borrowed Time
The Fed just split 8-4. Most divided vote since October 1992. Japan torched ¥5.4 trillion — 7% of FX reserves — in a single day defending the yen at 160. S&P at a record. Nasdaq's best month since 2020. This is what borrowed...
Decapitating Iran's Leadership Won’t Topple Government Overnight
Ex-CIA agent John Kiriakou on Netanyahu's CON that if Iran’s leadership was decapitated, the Iranian gov't would collapse in a day: "We can't just fire a bunch of rockets and take down a government in a country of 93 million people,...
Hormuz Closure Drives Further Oil Price Spikes
My take on oil price spikes with @MarioNawfal : "On March 29th, I predicted that we would have a spike in the price of oil at the end of April, and we did. If Hormuz stays shut for much longer, more...
Exported Cells and Wafers Are Real Hardware, Not Narrative
Exported cells & wafers are exported hardware @m_schouten Look at the data instead of the narrative #Solar #EnergyTransition #China #TradeFlows #Commodities #EnergyReality #Macro #DataVsNarrative https://t.co/bWOZGw7HIG
Fixed‑Income Remains Durable Amid Geopolitical Shifts
Marc Seidner, @PIMCO's CIO of Non-Traditional Strategies, has spent four decades navigating markets. Earlier this year, he said, “I think this is one of the most interesting, possibly one of the most durable environments for fixed-income investing.” My conversation with Marc walks through...
Trump's Strike on Iran Oil Could Cripple Global Supply
Targeting Iran’s oil infrastructure could be Trump's decisive move, writes @HolmanJenkins Losing that supply is a structural hit to a tight global system with lasting fallout. https://t.co/nRhyrPO9q8 #OilMarkets #IranWar #EnergyIsTheEconomy #Macro #Commodities
US Stocks Stay Steady as Oil Hits $120, Europe Falters
In this week’s podcast @MrMBrown and I look at why, despite crude oil prices rising sharply towards $120 a barrel, US stock markets have remained seemingly unfazed, while European markets have started to struggle. https://t.co/R4Xvnkhgpi
US Munitions Reliant on China’s Critical Materials
I spoke w/ @davidlin_TV about China’s control over replacing US munitions: "The US weapons cupboard is bare. Restocking these weapons requires many critical materials, & 95% of those materials come from China. To replenish US munitions, the US needs permission from...
China Blocks US Sanctions on Five Iranian‑oil Firms
The Ministry of Commerce issued Announcement No. 21 of 2026, announcing a blocking order against the United States' sanctions on five Chinese companies related to Iranian oil. https://t.co/xIHxp0dzEa
Swap Lines Make Recipients Fed Branches Without Voting Power
The best way to think about USD Swap Lines is that they basically transform the recipient into a new regional branch of the Federal Reserve or US Treasury but the new branch doesn't have any voting rights with regards to...
US Announces Preliminary Anti-Dumping Duties on Solar Imports
U.S. government sets preliminary anti-dumping duties on solar imports from India, Indonesia, and Laos #energysky -- via pv magazine global: https://t.co/s1Ki33oLMF
Mortgage Rates Rebound From Historic Lows to 6.3%
Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate in the US… 1970s: 8.9% 1980s: 12.7% 1990s: 8.1% 2000s: 6.3% 2010s: 4.1% 2020s: 5.3% --- All-Time Low (Jan 2021): 2.65% 2023 Peak (Oct 2023): 7.79% Today's Rate: 6.30% https://t.co/Ji2noTwgDL
Trump’s Market Play Mirrors Today’s Geopolitical Turbulence
As the Iran conflict drags on, one thing that is clear is that Trump’s approach to markets serves as a potent symbol of our age. Think on that when you next look at your portfolio. by @GillianTett https://t.co/hamJEQT8OT
Japan's $2.2B Pledge Dwarfed by $36B US
"Together, they total around $2.2 billion — far short of the $36 billion that the US expects Japan to invest for the first wave of the projects."
China Pushes Policy to Curb Food Import Dependence
Why China worries about its agricultural dependence on the rest of the world, as well as Beijing’s new industrial policy efforts to ensure greater food self-sufficiency. by @Adam_Tooze https://t.co/xkVOHAeLog
US Still Reliant on Persian Gulf Oil and Resources
Tell me again how the Persian Gulf does not impact the US? 8% of our oil imports (approx 250M bbls) comes through the Strait of Hormuz. The world is pulling WTI crude out of the US at record levels, along with refined...
China’s Mineral Grip Tests Integrated vs Shotgun Strategies
Strategic mineral. China controls. Iran war. Weapons fired. Is there an integrated approach to dealing with China. Or is it a shotgun?
US Sanctions Iran-China Pipeline, Russia Gets Lenient Pass
U.S. Targets Iran–China Oil Pipeline in Dual Sanctions Move on Shipping and Finance. While Russia skates along with US sanctions lifted. Why is Iran’s ally, Russia, treated so nicely? As Trump-Xi meeting nears. https://t.co/prTIHc6vM2
Invest in S&P 500: $1 Beats Inflation to $9
Inflation is the silent thief. Over the last 30 years, it cut the value of $1 in half. But $1 invested in the S&P 500 became nearly $9 – AFTER adjusting for higher prices. That’s the power of ownership. https://t.co/gb8aVaDFxZ
Chinese Car Makers Accelerate Into South Africa’s Market
The "China Strength" isn’t just hitting South East Asia, 𝗶𝘁’𝘀 𝗮𝗹𝘀𝗼 𝗮𝗯𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝘁𝗼 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘀𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺 𝗦𝗼𝘂𝘁𝗵 𝗔𝗳𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮’𝘀 𝗿𝗼𝗮𝗱𝘀 𝘁𝗼𝗼. Just as Chinese companies are scaling across Asia, brands like Chery, GWM, and BAIC are entering, growing, and investing in the South African...
Europe’s Industries Still Rely on U.S. Support
When someone says 'Europe don't need USA' - do ask 'to what' - point is that Germanys automotive industry needed USA. My guess is that in reality we will see an abundance of similar examples in the future.
Rural Angst Spikes as Democrats Gain Iowa Foothold
"The ratings reflect rural America’s economic angst amid rising fuel, fertilizer and other prices after a year of depressed commodity trade following President Trump’s embrace of tariffs."