Trump Predicts Iran War Will Last Two Weeks
Well, Trump says the Iran Iran War could drag on for another two to three weeks… … again https://t.co/y2mTL9jULA
China's Banks Surge Net Dollar Holdings, Data Shows
Indeed. China's own banking data shows a big jump in its net dollar holdings in the last few quarters. And that data excludes the dollar assets of the policy banks and China's various sovereign funds https://t.co/DSd2RXCiOA
Unclear Ship Traffic in Hormuz Highlights Information Gaps
So, have there been ships traversing Hormuz or not... why is it this hard to figure out what is actually happening in the Strait?
Bitcoin Beats Gold as Top Inflation Hedge, Says Tudor Jones
Paul Tudor Jones: bitcoin is the best inflation hedge there is, more than gold. BTC clears its 150-day. Iran fires on Hormuz. UAE quits OPEC. Meta down 8% on $145B in AI capex. @AustinCampbell, @ramahluwalia, and @perkinscr97 debate live on Bits +...
100% Tariff Already Eliminates Chinese Imports; Higher Rates Irrelevant
If Trump weren't dumber than a rock, he would know that once he gets to a 100% tax, imports from China will fall to near zero. After that point, it doesn't matter whether he makes the tariff 200% or 20,000%....
Iran's Full Oil Storage Pressures Leaders, Sparks Policy Uncertainty
This shift will be caused by Iran's oil storage reaching capacity. Now that the real decision-makers will feel the pressure, there will be an opening for policy change. The outcome, however, remains uncertain. #crudeoil #iranwar #straitofhormuz #geopolitics https://t.co/EAeq2uZUcK
Rate Rebound Signals Bond Market Nearing Bottom
Hearing a lot of "the backup in rates" ... so you know we are near a bond bottom
Critical Rate Threshold Threatening Big‑Cap Tech Stocks
At what level would long term interest rates need to be to negatively impact big cap tech stocks? $NDX
Rising Inflation, Higher Rates Signal Sell Housing Stocks
If you had our Macro Inflation Accelerating and Rates Rising Nowcast, you would not belong this stock or Housing $ITB $LEN https://t.co/2zbacX6GvP
China Should Lead Strait of Hormuz Reopening, Not Follow
Shouldn't China be leading, rather than following, when it comes to reopening the Strait of Hormuz? They have the most to gain. https://t.co/no60ONPKDg
Oil Drives Bond Volatility, Raising Yields
Oil's impact on the bond market I would argue that oil (blue) is driving bond volatility (orange), not the other way around. That means wider daily ranges and, given the current environment, higher yields (>volatility = higher yields). https://t.co/oUEp8B4rEQ
Treasury Yields Surge; Fed Cuts Needed to Reach 6%
Bond Market on Edge: Treasury Yields Spike, 30-Year to 5.03%, Mortgage Rates to 6.52%, as Gulf War Reheats. Which raises a question: How many more Fed rate cuts would it take in this inflationary era to drive the 30-year Treasury yield...
Eurogroup Tackles Banking Union, Consolidation, Middle East War Impact
In Brussels today for the #Eurogroup meeting. We discussed: 🔹 update on banking union 🔹 cross-border banking consolidation in the 🇪🇺 🔹 the economic impact of the war in the Middle East https://t.co/q79ecOFewJ
Trump's Project Freedom Fails Amid US‑Israeli
Yesterday, Pres. Trump announced Project Freedom, sending US ships to “free up” the Strait of Hormuz. US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN = FAILURE. https://t.co/pIItgdOTI9
Oil Futures Hit New Highs, Expect $90+ Prices
What does the oil market think? Both the July (orange) and December (blue) Brent Crude Oil Futures Contracts are at new highs. The December contract is now signaling that the market expects crude oil to be above $90 for the next seven...
FOMC Unity Masks Dissent; Expect USD Short on Hawkish Fed
Macro: FOMC consensus exceeds visible dissent. Key factor: uncertainty amplified votes. Risk: markets may overreact to perceived division. Trade: buy USD short on Fed's hawkish tilt. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD,CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
China Bans Compliance with U.S. Sanctions, Draws Red Line
On May 2nd, China struck back against US sanctions. Now, Chinese parties are ordered to "not recognize, not enforce and not comply" with US sanctions. With announcement No.21, China has drawn a red line. IT'S ABOUT TIME. https://t.co/EvWcJGEjHO
Restricting City Agglomeration Costs Nations Significant GDP Growth
The next thought in this chain is: "How much GDP growth have we, as a society, given up by retarding agglomeration effects in our most productive cities?" And the answer to this is "a material amount"... in other words, we're all poorer...
No Peace Talks; Strait Remains Closed Indefinitely
It is looking like neither can and will negotiate a peace and open up the Strait.
US Blockade Cuts Iranian Rial 20% in Three Weeks
Since the start of the US blockade on April 13, the Iranian Rial is down 20 percent against the Dollar. We're only three weeks into the blockade and this is the most visible sign it's already meaningfully disrupting Iran's economy....
Sanctions Fail, Prompt Counterattacks Like China's Response
My view in @FortuneMagazine on CHINA’S COUNTERATTACK ON US SANCTIONS: "We have long argued that sanctions are cards played by losers. The historical record is unambiguous: sanctions rarely achieve their desired ends and often give rise to counterattacks." https://t.co/EvWcJGEjHO
Brent Hits $114 Amid US‑Iran Tensions, Inflation Looming
https://t.co/Tigb4k2zAJ Brent crude at $114 now and no end to the U.S.-Iran conflict. Can’t wait for the next inflation readings….And economic data,
Electrification Becomes Asia’s Path to Energy Security
Oil’s Long Goodbye The Strait of Hormuz crisis isn’t a cycle, it's a game-changing disruption. Oil and gas are now an energy INSECURITY. Electrification is the new energy security, esp. for Asia. #cdnpoli https://youtu.be/UiIan-aa4Hw
US Hormuz Blockade Heightens Risk of Global Slowdown
My take on the effects of the US blockade on the Strait of Hormuz on @MarioNawfal: “With each passing day of the imposition of the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the probability of the world economy entering a more...
Bassett Miscalculates: US Shale Peaked, Oversupply Looms
Bassett’s math doesn’t add up on several fronts: U.S. shale oil production has peaked for now, the increase in U.S. crude deliveries is the result of large withdrawals from the U.S. SPR, and the announced increase in the OPEC+ group...
US‑Iran Clash Forces China Into Unexpected Mediation
US starts Iran war on its own. No help. Now incredible maritime mess in Strait. Wants help. Now from China. As China ignores US sanctions. Trump-Xi meeting should be interesting. Will there be more trade supply chain upheaval?
U.S.-China Trade Shifts: ASEAN Rise, Tariffs Reshape Supply Chains
NY Fed/Liberty Street Economics: In What Ways Has U.S. Trade with China Changed? Trade Asean shifts. Tariffs. Finished goods. Upstream supply chain. What is real? Temporary? Or not?
Stock Peaks Mask Real Costs of US‑Iran Conflict
My article covering market conditions, themes and top events this week: Reconciling Record Stock Market Highs to Tangible US-Iran War Costs https://t.co/Mx7W91Ke9C https://t.co/UaQC76ewvR
EU Warns of Response to Trump's Car Tariffs, Urges Caution
EU vows action if Trump adopts car tariffs, but urges restraint https://t.co/yOQoGgg9ak via @europressos @KowalczeKamil @NickHeubeck https://t.co/7Y8OCu5cqr
Geopolitical Tensions and Tariffs Fuel Mixed Market Outlook
Markets are mixed this morning and here's why it matters 👇 Iran allegedly shot at US ships overnight. US denies damage but the message is clear, tensions are escalating, not cooling. Oil popped, then faded. Dow down, NASDAQ up, S&P flat. Add...
Rule of Law Fuels US’s Cheap Debt Advantage
Latest episode by @baselinescene and Gary Gensler on their "Power and Consequences" podcast on the importance of rule of law and institutions that underpin the exorbitant privilege of the US, i.e. our ability to issue debt cheaply. An absolute must...
SOFR Shows Near‑Zero Rate Cuts as Hidden Stimulus Fuels Growth
As of today, SOFR curve is pricing in ~ 8 bps of cuts in 2027 and ~2 bps of cuts in 2028. Cuts have finally been priced out as there is very little basis for them. Policymakers are using more...
Detroit Automakers Blame US‑Israeli War for $5 B Loss
Detroit automakers claim that the US-Israeli war in Iran is set to cost them $5 BILLION due to commodity price increases. THE AUTOMAKERS SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR DAMAGES TO TRUMP & NETANYAHU. https://t.co/FtDCfe7g8G
Trump May Falsely Claim Hormuz Open, Misleading Many
There will come a day soon, when Trump will declare that the Strait of Hormuz is actually fully open and ships are transiting like before the war, when in fact, nothing will have changed. Some in the world may continue to...
Dubai's Economy Crumbles as War Impact Surfaces
All of those 'Dubai is a paradise unaffected by the war' tweets have disappeared, as its economy is decimated.
Trump’s Gulf Blockade Turns Allies Into Adversaries
My take on Pres. Trump turning FRIENDS in the Gulf into ENEMIES with @MarioNawfal: "With the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, members of the Gulf Cooperation Council can no longer export their oil. As a result, the US blockade is...
Net Negative Migration Threatens U.S. Workforce and Growth
"Why 'net negative migration' could spell bad news for the U.S. economy The U.S. is on track to lose more immigrants than it gains in 2026. That means fewer workers paying taxes, building homes, growing food, and caring for an aging...
Tariffs, War, and Anger Spark Massive Aluminum Self‑Sabotage
Sky-high aluminum tariffs + a war that knocks out Middle Eastern aluminum supplies + pissing off one of the world's largest aluminum suppliers (and your nextdoor neighbor) = inarguably one of the biggest industrial own-goals in recent memory https://t.co/dgPngPBWuE
Instability Defines Global Economy; Diversify Reserves, Embrace Gold
h/t to my friend @EconguyRosie From Adam Glapinski last week, the governor of the National Bank of Poland: “Recent market developments, driven by the instability in the Middle East, have reinforced our view that instability has become the defining feature of...
US Capital Inflows Have Doubled Since 2018 Despite Predictions
Luke has been saying this trend would end since 2018. And during that time the global capital the US has sucked into its capital markets has...doubled. https://t.co/f1wrZt6C6Q
India Accelerates Trade Liberalization with New FTAs and Tariff Cuts
"India this week signed the latest in what’s been a run of rapid-fire free trade agreements.... India also has unilaterally cut tariffs on some key inputs and rolled back QCOs in sectors including steel, textiles and chemicals." https://t.co/AVxgDPYywi https://t.co/oZpPAr08RK
Morning Hormuz Updates Require Coffee First
every morning we wake up and check the latest news from the Strait of Hormuz best not to attempt this feat before you've had your first coffee https://t.co/QUiFormLeI
US Blockade Proves More Theater Than Effective Operation
The US blockade is a sieve. Another Iranian tanker has gotten through If it were one, it would be noise But it seems to be more the signal The blockade is serious theater but not a serious operation https://t.co/Tt24Zz0DYp
Seaborne Trade Routes Lengthen 10% Amid Geopolitical Turmoil
Average distance of global seaborne trade has increased by 10% during the disruptive 2020s. War and geopolitics. And as the supply of maritime bunker fuel is challenged by what is happening in the Strait of Hormuz. https://t.co/DzfGZ69ZAF
Avoid Repeating 2022 Russia Mistakes Amid US Blockade
Pushback to the US blockade reminds me of the joke where an Irish farmer is asked for directions to Dublin. He says: "I wouldn't start from here." We are where we are. Better to learn from the mistakes we made...
Fed Chair Challenges, Oil Surge Test Market Resilience
New pod in your feed this morning with @GuyAdami and @dmoses34 🎙️ 🏦 Future Fed Chair Warsh Challenges 🛢️ Surging Crude, Market Resilience 💹 Rising Global Yield Concerns Watch or listen now⤵️ YouTube: https://t.co/ZT50SGUH88 Apple: https://t.co/tStqaQZbnk Spotify: https://t.co/Iwwx4CEeL8
Japan's Debt, Not FX Intervention, Drives Yen Rise
After last week's intervention, $/JPY is climbing back towards 160, which repeats the pattern we saw in 2024 and earlier this year. Intervention is just treating the symptom. Japan's mountain of high public debt is the cause. That's what needs...
Fed Claims Shrinkage, but Balance Sheet Expands Again
Warsh, Miran and Bessent say they want to shrink the Fed's footprint. But the Fed's balance sheet started growing again in December. Reserve Management Purchases of 40B/month are de facto QE. And they're using the same ATI playbook they criticized Yellen...
Personal Economic Turmoil Shapes Our Risk Appetite
What is "the experience effect"? Prof. @umalmend of University of California, Berkeley has shown that the economic conditions we experience (say, a stock market crash or period of hyperinflation) leave a lasting impact on our appetite for risk. Rather...
War Continues, Rate Cuts Unlikely; Hike Probability Rises
No rate cuts while the war is ongoing; there's a higher chance of a hike if this persists.