G7 Plans Permanent Body to Steer Critical Minerals Agenda
Exclusive: G7 in talks to set up permanent unit to oversee critical minerals agenda https://t.co/wXp74jX9mG
China’s New Law Forces Firms to Defy US Sanctions
My take in @FortuneMagazine on China BUCKING US sanctions: "This is a move with teeth. Until last weekend, Beijing’s statutes were a paper tiger. With the issuance of Announcement No. 21, that changed, when Chinese were ordered to ignore US sanctions." https://t.co/EvWcJGEjHO
Fed Rate Cut Near S&P Peak Predicts Future Decline
In December, the Fed cut rates within 2% of an all-time high for the S&P 500. We shared this table back then and noted that stocks had never been lower a year later. https://t.co/ujCQTFGTz6
EU Urges US to Reinstate Tariffs Ahead of Anniversary
JUST IN: The EU presses the US to reinstate trade deal tariffs as the anniversary approaches.
Rising Gas Prices Spark Imminent Food Inflation Wave
This is a concerning chart but grounded in reality. The surge in gasoline prices is likely leading commodity grains. The next wave of food inflation is already here. https://t.co/jC5yXTTjzf https://t.co/ZOCR2jO7nt
Villeroy Says ECB Lacks Data for Rate Hike
ECB doesn’t see enough yet to warrant a rate hike, says Villeroy (who won’t be in office anymore when the ECN next sets rates) https://t.co/jwn0TZ30hT via @WHorobin https://t.co/bqeIXgSyEL
EU Urges US to Approve Trade Deal by July
EU tells the US their trade deal should be adopted by July deadline https://t.co/6LX1rp3ffM via @europressos https://t.co/CtRqmdTSJI
UN Considers Hormuz Sanctions Amid US Push for Forceful Resolution
U.N. Weighs Hormuz Sanctions as U.S. Pushes Resolution That Could Open Door to Force https://t.co/CT043TrOfi
Iran Launches Strait Authority, Threatens $90B Fees
Iran does not care about any UN reg. They will do what they want with the Strait. They may be looking at $90bil in fees. What will Trump do?
2026 US Goods Trade Balance Mirrors 2024, Not 2025
New data from the Census today show that, adjusted for inflation, the 2026 US goods trade balance is essentially unchanged vs the same period in 2024. (2025 is wildly distorted bc of an import surge due to tariff front-running.) https://t.co/f779W6FJZL https://t.co/eTPHLFMM9T
Market Bubble Likely to Burst with Policy Tightening
My take on @soarfinancial on the STOCK MARKET BUBBLE: "The market is in BUBBLE TERRITORY so it's vulnerable for a TAKEDOWN... The only thing we know with some certainty is that when the popping occurs, it usually is associated with central...
Eurodollar Market Independent of Dollar
Disagree here obviously -- The modern eurodollar market developed independently of dollar pegging; the UK is the market's hub and the pound obviously isn't pegged to the dollar ... 1/2
Tariffs Alone Won’t Revive U.S. Textile Industry
"It Will Take More Than Tariffs to Bring Back U.S. Textile Manufacturing, Industry Insiders Say" 😯 https://t.co/xrPxylUcmA https://t.co/DDxL6NjUj4
Beef Imports Surge to Record $13.75B, up 28% Yo
"[B]eef imports in total are exploding at $4.5 billion through March, up 28% from a year ago. That comes after record for beef imports at $13.75 billion in 2025, up nearly $2.5 billion from a year earlier." https://t.co/M9mSqQvOq6
AI-Driven Import Surge Widens March US Trade Deficit
US imports are soaring again -- led by imports related to the "AI"/ data center investment boom. That pulled the March trade deficit up even with strong exports .. 1/ https://t.co/pyJlnGeCph
Nigeria Ranks 37th Most Miserable Amid Soaring Inflation
In Hanke’s 2025 Annual Misery Index, Nigeria ranks as the 37TH MOST MISERABLE country in the world. This is thanks to high inflation and steep borrowing costs. Pres. Tinubu = ARROGANT, CORRUPT, & INCOMPETENT. https://t.co/poNAxRjOlJ
Market Hits Record Valuation, Buffett Indicator Tops 227%
Stock Market reaches it’s most expensive valuation in history after the Warren Buffett Indicator hits 227%, surpassing the Dot Com Bubble and the Global Financial Crisis: https://t.co/c3rpLbz8So
AI Boom Persists; Data‑center Stocks Poised for Gains
The AI trade is alive and well. Semiconductor stocks have run up a lot and likely due for a near-term pullback but other names involved in the data-centre buildout are not over-extended. Real GDP accelerated in March + April and with the...
Gold Beats Oil as US's Top Export, Flows to China
For the 5th month in the last 6, "Nonmonetary Gold" was again the single biggest export of the US in March. US gold exports were 1.7x > oil; 2x > than Rx preparations, 2.5x > aircraft engines. Biggest destination for US gold...
Tariffs Yield Minimal Deficit Reduction After One Year
"The figures measure the limited progress made toward the Trump administration’s goal of reducing the deficit in the 12 months after President Trump rolled out steep global tariffs in April 2025." 😯
Blue Line Signals Urgent Need for Rate Cuts
Narrative status That blue dotted line needs rate cuts or coupon auction cuts SOON Following that purple line now 28 days. Dipping east south east https://t.co/mcOBDLMz1a
UK Long‑dated Yields Hit 28‑year High on BoE Hike Bets
The yield on long-dated UK debt climbed to a 28-year high as traders bet on more Bank of England interest-rate hikes https://t.co/1j1HJapqBI
Milei’s Approval Plummets as Inflation Stays Sky‑high
Milei's approval ratings fell to the mid-30s this month. If that’s not bad enough, confidence in Milei's administration plunged for the fourth consecutive month. Argentina’s inflation remains OUT OF CONTROL at 32.7%/yr. MILEI’S FAILURE TO CRUSH INFLATION PUTS HIM IN THE TANK. https://t.co/x1LOiHlZ9P
From War‑torn Ruins to Outpacing the UK
Imagine telling someone in 1953 — as Korea lay in ruins after the war — that one day its stock market would be bigger than the UK's.
Eurodollar Crisis Drives Bitcoin Toward $1 Million
I sat down with Nik Bhatia, ex-Treasury bond trader, USC professor, and author of Layered Money and The Bitcoin Age. While Bloomberg's Mike McGlone is calling Bitcoin to $10,000, @timevalueofbtc says $1 million is coming sooner than anyone thinks. "The US built...
QRA's Pause Fuels Asset Rallies, Inflates Debt
The last time the QRA mattered we pivoted from short to long when Janet decided to stop increasing coupon issuance. Every QRA since has left issuance unchanged. Tomorrow will be no different. It's suppressed bond yields from going...
Asia and Middle East Dominate $13T Sovereign Wealth
Where the World’s $13T in Sovereign Wealth Is Held Key Takeaways 👉 Asia and the Middle East control the majority of the world’s $13 trillion in sovereign wealth. 👉 Norway alone holds over $2.1 trillion, the largest sovereign wealth fund globally. 👉 Middle Eastern...
Accelerating Money Supply Drives Recent US Inflation Spike
My take on @soarfinancial on RISING US INFLATION: "US CPI jumped from 2.4% in Feb. to 3.3% in Mar. That DIDN'T SURPRISE ME because the money supply has been ACCELERATING for the last 18 months. When that happens, with a lag,...
U.S. Forms Global Coalition to Tackle Memory Chip Shortage
LOS ANGELES -- The U.S. is working to address the global memory chip shortage through a supply chain coalition with allies in Asia, Europe and the Middle East, a State Department official told Nikkei Asia Monday.
Credit Creation: Issuance Fuels Spending, Then Savings
A brief primer on credit and money creation and how issuance always becomes spending and then savings. It's a circle of life and the timing is what matters https://t.co/lWFuVh2MYC
Sachs Warns US‑Israel Iran Escalation Will Devastate Global Economy
Distinguished Columbia Univ. Prof. Jeff Sachs on the RE-ESCALATION of the US-Israeli war on Iran: "It seems like the US, and especially Israel, are determined to go back to war. This will be absolutely catastrophic for the global economy." https://t.co/XFgVDhCI13
ECB May Hike in June,
🇪🇺 MNI sources: ECB set to hike in June, then keep options open 🇫🇷 France fighting back: *ECB'S VILLEROY: DON'T YET SEE SUFFICIENT SIGNS FOR RATE HIKE ✊
Dollar Remains Unrivaled; Alternatives Lack Appeal
My take on @soarfinancial on the 'de-dollarization' narratives: "The US dollar just DOMINATES EVERYTHING in the financial sphere. There just aren't any alternatives out there that are very attractive." LET'S FACE IT: THE USD IS THE BEST DIRTY SHIRT AROUND. https://t.co/Rtj6bTsKBc
US Index Rebounds to Record in 25 Days
I don't know if investors are truly "looking past the war in the Middle East," but it's pretty amazing that a major US stock market index took just 25 trading days to go from war jitters lows...to record highs 👇
Central Asian Dynamics, Not US Policy, Drive Regional Cooperation
With due respect, I oversaw U.S. policy in Central Asia for part of the Bush 43 second term and we were most certainly "dealing with the region on its own terms." What has changed is not "American naïveté" because, in...
Potential Multi‑Rate Hikes Create UST & SOFR Opportunities
Should the Fed in the next 12 months decide that it needs to hike rates, high odds it will need to hike more than once and more than 25 bps. UST and SOFR curves offering interesting opportunities
US Stocks Hold Steady as Europe Drags, Global Outlook Bullish
Vanguard global stock index is up about the same amount as the US market this year. Europe is acting as a drag so far this year with other markets (eg Brazil) outperforming strongly. Seems like international investors have got comfortable with...
Iran's FM Visits Beijing Before Trump's China Trip
Iran Foreign Minister Headed to Beijing Ahead of Trump China Visit—Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is headed to Beijing for talks, days ahead of President Trump’s visit this month to meet his counterpart Xi Jinping in China. @laurnorman https://t.co/d35F5NJWz7
Trump Eager for Xi Summit Amid Ongoing US‑China Tensions
Trump Says He Looks Forward to Xi Summit as US-China Tensions Persist - Bloomberg https://t.co/QmkfBpfXwd
EU Funding Block Threatens Solar Supply, Risks Blackouts
EU blocks funds for key Chinese solar energy parts “In practice, this could mean a remote shutdown of member states’ networks leading to countrywide blackouts." Anything is possible...but.... https://t.co/FDkl759Yjg via @ft
Rising Oil and Rates Signal Impending Housing Collapse
Oil, rates, and housing – here's what I see coming: • Oil to $120-150 by fall • 10-year yield at 4.43% and climbing • Housing market about to get crushed • Higher fuel = recessionary You're spending the same but getting less." oil #economy #recession #housing...
Global Oil Liftings Rebound to Pre‑war Levels.
CHART OF THE DAY: Impressive chart via @Vortexa. On a 7-day moving average, global oil liftings (into tankers) have **recovered to their pre-war level** due to a surge in liftings in the Americas. (Of course, that's helped by massive stock...
Markets Hold Steady Amid Geopolitical Turmoil Ahead of ISM
Markets are taking geopolitical chaos in stride. ✅ NASDAQ at record highs ✅ Oil down 3.5% ✅ Gold up ✅ USD lower vs majors (except JPY) ✅ RBA hikes, signals pause All eyes on the 10am ISM print - the real tell...
UK 30‑Year Yield Hits Highest Level Since 1998
UK bond selloff pushes 30-year yield to the highest since 1998 https://t.co/CNMg8iGy9M via @highisland https://t.co/jvM4S0LRPZ
Project Freedom only Clears Outbound Tankers, Not Two‑way Flow
Project Freedom (the new US attempt to unblock the strait) is all about getting oil tankers out. So far, no indication the US is even contemplating a two-way traffic, with tankers going into the Persian Gulf. The later is a...
China Deploys Blocking Rule to Counter U.S. Sanctions
China Steps Up U.S. Sanctions Fight, Defying Blacklisting Over Iranian Oil—Beijing’s first-time use of ‘blocking rule’ comes ahead of expected Trump-Xi summit @hannahmiao_ https://t.co/1ePNqIE1df https://t.co/1ePNqIE1df
Middle East Conflict Sparks Unbuffered Global Supply Chain Shock
Coming up on CNN International to talk the conflict in the Middle East and ripple effects for the US and global economy. The shock is more than an oil shock, which is painful in its own right; it is...
2025 Global Trade Surges 5.9%, Fueled by AI Demand
Global trade expanded in 2025 exceeding the post-2020 average pace. Driven by E Asia & Pacific (ex China) and the machinery & electronics sector, global trade expanded by 5.9% in 2025 vs 2.6% in 2024 driven by rising demand for...
Forecasters Missed Both 1990s Productivity Surge and 2000s Slowdown
GS: Forecasters Were Slow to Anticipate Both the Productivity Acceleration of the Late 1990s and the Subsequent Slowdown That Began in the Mid-2000s https://t.co/qp0mIBZocJ
War Stalemate Threatens Global Energy and Fertilizer Supplies
Signaling no restart to the war? No War No Peace No Shipping No Oil, LNG, Fertilizer, or Helium.