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Every morning
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Excellent, data-rich thread - and exactly the right way to judge the Liberation Day tariffs (ie, by the President's own standards/promises). THIS is why tariff fans obsess over pre-TACO predictions of Tariff Armageddon & claim "victory" when the worst doesn't come to pass.
"While the US will continue to outperform other advanced economies under almost any war scenario..." Bookmark that
If the 10Y breaks 4.5%… does geopolitics change? Or does policy get forced to change first? https://t.co/yInQSNy76L
"The 10Y and inflation moving up are not good for asset prices." Ram on @bitsandbips https://t.co/6eQLOwwmn9
the most consequential decision of trump’s presidency. war with iran. troops deploying. and the president still hasn't explained the strategy. @gzeromedia
What looks irrational is actually desperation @gbrew24 The U.S. can’t both punish Iran for exports & limit greater damage to global oil markets Then there’s China—possibly the only power capable of mediating an off ramp It’s why talk of seizing Kharg is...
A stark message from the IMF: "Although the war could shape the global economy in different ways, all roads lead to higher prices and slower growth." https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2026/03/30/how-the-war-in-the-middle-east-is-affecting-energy-trade-and-finance #economy #markets #growth #inflation @the_imf
Back to the market. Oil is surging, volatility is expanding, and sentiment is quickly turning bearish—that’s your first clue. When fear spreads wildly, you have to start thinking contrary. But let’s be clear: Powell has signaled he’s on hold until...
The stock market $ACWI is very close to its worst month since March 2020 -9.0% https://t.co/1hZc6AgZRS
🌳Saudi Exports, Houthis, and the Bab el Mandeb Bottleneck 🌳Russia LNG Exports Set to Hit Record High Egypt’s Challenges: Typical of Every Developing Country 🌳Shipping Rates Are Up Again – Here’s Why King Coal: For How Long? 🌳EU Oil and Gas Pinch: The Never-Ending Crisis 🌳Cuba...
As we monitor global bond markets, please keep an eye on whether France, Japan, and the UK mimic the retreat in US yields. The three G7 markets have already faced pressure from bond vigilantes since 2022. Whether they follow the US lead...
Williams of @NewYorkFed echoes Powell’s view this morning that the Fed can afford to wait and see the economic impact of the Iran war before making any policy moves. He expects the burst of inflation stemming from the war to fade...
War sucks. Markets dumping sucks. But this is exactly what we've been preparing for. I still think the markets far away from a full recovery. I shared my macro thoughts late last year; still very relevant today. Worth the read 👇
The U.S. has many more options than to only seize Kharg Island with ground forces. It may be possible to isolate, degrade, or rendered it inoperable without occupation. Kharg is uniquely a center of gravity for the regime’s economic power/survival. It...
We are starting to see what I would characterize as true capitulation. When you see bond yields coming down sharply, even if the oil price is a tad up, while the USD strengthens and equities sell off, it smells like...
With each passing day, the mortgage rate lock-in effect fades. Nearly 22% of mortgage holders now have a rate above 6%. Which is more than the share with a rate below 3%. Ultra-low-rate owners are slowly getting replaced with 6%+ owners. Meaning...
Powell says US debt is growing fast, and that something needs to be done Powell has also been the Fed Chair the last few years and holds some power What has he been doing? https://t.co/c7TWjsGmju
🚨 $272 million dollar stimulus plan approved by UAE. Unlike the US, they don’t print money. They also operate at a fiscal surplus.
The stock market is screaming fear. VIX at 31. The bond market? Shrugging. High-yield credit spreads are at 317 basis points — BELOW the 20-year average. One of these markets is wrong. If spreads stay below 400, we bounce. If they blow through 500, brace...
US rug pull on rare earth floors. They didn't even let US supply get built. Looks like the names are getting hit. I wonder where the US gov thinks supply with come from... Brazil? Rely...
IMF says the Iran war means higher prices, slower growth worldwide https://t.co/xsjyA1lVNX via @jdorosario https://t.co/RqEIMO88cd
New US LNG export project begins operations 🇺🇸🚢 The Golden Pass plant (a JV with Qatar & Exxon) just started LNG production at 1 of its 3 trains. First export expected from 2Q The world is scrambling for more US LNG as...
As always, I had a ton of fun doing my friend and colleague @aarondmiller2's show #CarnegieConnects, especially with my @CarnegieEndow teammates @RosaBalfour and @AlexGabuev. Aaron asked us, how are Russia and China, two of Iran’s closet partners, faring in the...
If both stocks and bonds can’t catch a bid, the message is simple: inflation risk is a tax on EVERYTHING. That’s why ‘balanced’ can feel unbalanced. https://t.co/TSSid8H3g0
US Natural Gas' 100% 1Q Pump-Then-Dump May Guide 2026 Crude Oil - The roughly 100% 1Q rise in the front US natural gas future, and reversal to minus 18% on March 27, may lead crude oil's way in 2026, as...
it goes 1) financial stability, 2) unemployment, 3) inflation under the last few Chairs, at least
All the middle east, geopolitics and energy experts keep talking about reopening the Strait of Hormuz as if that solves the problem. It doesn’t. The Strait is just the front door. The entire Persian Gulf is now a kill zone. 1/2 https://t.co/ZHp06lZzYS
When it comes to great power competition, it’s always good to look at the numbers. A PICTURE IS WORTH A THOUSAND WORDS. https://t.co/oDxkPFvNS7
Since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran, the Iranian rial has APPRECIATED by 9% against the USD. AN IMPORTANT FACT THAT THE WESTERN MEDIA HAS FAILED TO REPORT ON. https://t.co/Dlt04mOOmJ
Status of US Dollar as Global Reserve Currency: USD Share Drops to 31-Year Low as Central Banks Diversify into Other Currencies & Gold. The spike of the “non-traditional reserve currencies.” https://t.co/cHnT24iCcd https://t.co/kINZT79BbA
A question about the role of the vice chair for supervision led Powell to lay out his philosophy on how a Fed chair should operate more broadly (offered by way of explaining why he didn't want to get too involved...
The BEA updated the US net international investment position last week for Q4 '25 and it stood at $27.5 trillion. That's the amount of assets foreigners own in the US vs what the US owns in the rest of the...
The Iran war is now a global energy crisis. With the Strait of Hormuz closed, Asia is scrambling for oil/LNG—driving price shocks and geopolitical shifts. I spoke with Abishur Prakash about what comes next. https://youtu.be/lyr9tnT_-yU #EnergyCrisis #IranWar #OilPrices #LNG
Everyone comparing today to 1970s stagflation is being too optimistic. In 1980, debt-to-GDP was 26%. Today it's 122%. There is no Volcker option when you owe $39 trillion. This isn't stagflation. It's a depression in slow motion. https://t.co/V2YAlnMATp
Powell doesn’t seem particularly concerned about inflation. Plenty of “tools” left in the toolbox, apparently :) Two words come to mind: Hard Assets. https://t.co/hITFzs7Q38 https://t.co/POZgWWN4c6
Stagflation is a bad environment for equities, with low (real) returns and high volatility GS Europe https://t.co/QhgQfFdqYh
GS Europe: Stagflation risk re‑enters the debate. We have downgraded GDP growth in 2026 by around 0.7pp in the Euro area We have raised our end-2026 inflation forecast by around 1.4pp in the Euro area https://t.co/E3drISW5P1
China is less exposed to the energy shock than the US, writes @GoldmanSachs It mixes categories & gets the conclusions wrong @RnaudBertrand Electricity ≠ oil & gas Reserves ≠ supply Buffers ≠ independence This crisis is about liquids—and China is more dependent than...
$TLT can rally in a recession and still be a bad trade if inflation expectations won’t chill. Duration isn’t a safe haven when the bond market stops believing. https://t.co/Rb9uYrLUHk
This growing supply chain uncertainty plus past few years of above-target inflation makes it increasingly hard to "look through" supply shocks. Here is one way to navigate this inflationary minefield: https://t.co/ihDcQmhv7a
Bull Trap or the safe heaven status is back ? Gold has been on the rise for the past few days meanwhile Geopolitical tensions & inflation fears are still on the rise. Let me share my 2 cents on what's happening &...
Call it supply chain shifts or derisking. Moving retail and manufacturing supply away from China to other countries. Given the tiers of suppliers and size, how deep into the upstream supply chain does the change go?
Powell is asked by an undergrad what he thinks about Kevin Warsh trying to come into the Fed and cut rates in the current environment. Powell: "That’s not something I’m going to swing at, that pitch."
🇺🇸Last week's U.S. corn export inspections topped all trade expectations, but soybeans fell slightly below. 46% of the inspected soybean cargoes were destined for China. https://t.co/qtmgF00LfJ
Gold can drop hard while inflation headlines stay hot. That’s not ‘gold is broken’. That’s real rates and margin calls. Correlations don’t die. They just take vacations. https://t.co/LB3g5NQWP9
A ground war isn’t escalation—it’s a recipe for disaster, writes Rabobank's Stefan Koopman Regime change means occupation. Occupation means insurgency. Insurgency means years of loss. Iran isn’t Venezuela. This doesn’t end quickly. #IranWar #Geopolitics #Oil https://t.co/mwwBgWwDU4
POWELL: INFLATION EXPECTATIONS REMAIN WELL ANCHORED - Bloomberg. *Inflation expectations (breakevens), below. "Well anchored?" https://t.co/oWnwOzgMcY
The Iran war has disrupted a greater share of oil supplies than any previous shock. And this time, there is virtually no spare capacity available to make up the gap. @wsj
Euro is poised for worst quarter since 2024 as oil shock bites https://t.co/Z3N3DfLpbB via @vkaramanis_fx https://t.co/yjLvpdnvVF
As we approach the 1-year anniversary of "Liberation Day" this week, @sdonnan reports that new foreign investment in the US was actually down significantly last year: https://t.co/s1wGG4RQiu
