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EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
"In the months that followed, US tariff policy changed more than 50 times, spanning rate increases, rate decreases, new product exemptions, and new product inclusions." https://t.co/qeG5V7fXwy
"Foreign central bank holdings of USTs at NY Fed fall to lowest level since 2012 in wake of Iran war" Via @seaniechaos https://t.co/VIiwJqrZAY
Hormuz now a pay to pass corridor. From being forced to pay a “toll” to a VLCC attacked and on fire, a day in the maritime mess at the Strait of Hormuz. https://t.co/ENyO92nyeS
@jimcramer @carlquintanilla Jim I respectfully disagree with your upbeat assessment (as it relates to equities) of the new strategy to cede control of the Strait. The knock on consequences of this new strategy are broad, inflationary and economic dulling. The policy...
This is something to keep an eye on. Ukraine has been damaging Russian oil export capacity, via drone. The country's seaborne shipments last week were the lowest since 2022, but unclear if it's the start of a longer trend. ...
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Venezuelan bolivar ranks as the WORLD'S WORST currency. The bolivar has depreciated by over 83% against the USD in the past year. VENEZUELA’S TOP PRIORITY = OFFICIAL DOLLARIZATION. https://t.co/AUN4GLdvgF
I don't see any reasonable scenario in which the oil market exits the Iran War in a healthier, more secure condition than where things stood before the war. It's a structural go-forward upgrade to oil pricing, at this stage it's just...
India's Current Account Deficit for the Oct-Dec 2025 quarter came in at $13bn. This includes the "tariff" quarter now, and it's not that much. For the full 9 months of this FY, it's a $30bn deficit. Source: RBI https://t.co/SZ3Ufjjzfz
20+ years ago we were net importers of and oil and gas and therefore we decided to meddle in the Middle East to protect shipping lanes, etc. Today we are next exporters of oil and gas. I thought that would have...
Mexico’s dualistic labour market is weighted towards informality. More on this in the Chartbook Top Links today. https://t.co/ZRjXpKyZBq
China has extended its fuel export ban for another month to April. There is now talk of letting a small amount of fuel out to countries like Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and the Maldives. But the shipments would be only ~5%-10%...
The EU-India FTA may help Indian aluminium exports, but CBAM still limits the real upside. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/eu-india-fta-could-improve-indian.html
But the tariffs may have screwed the economy, but Donald Trump had lots of fun imposing them, and that is what really matters.
Mixed War News Keeps Oil Firm and the Greenback Consolidating: War developments pulled in both directions, leaving investors on edge On the one hand, Iran struck an oil tanker, carrying Kuwait oil, in port in Dubai. On the other hand,...
A Bloomberg table on a brutal month for stock markets around the world. #economy #markets #stocks #investing #investora
The bond market is doing more damage to Bitcoin than the war. 10-year TIPS yield hit 2.02% — up 30bps since Iran. Highest real return on govt bonds since June 2025. When you earn 2%+ risk-free, holding a zero-yield asset...
The global trend just cracked... ACWI is rolling over. And global new lows are now > new highs. That’s a change in character. https://t.co/h5jwZpfzt5
🤔 ✍️ @voxeu without immigration, “higher fertility would depress GDP per capita growth for roughly 50 years.” 💥more births would likely lower force participation among women & older workers. https://t.co/VubvO2dK8V
Iran struck a ship with Kuwaiti oil in a Dubai port and press reports POTUS told aides can consider winding down operation without securing Strait of Hormuz. Oil remains firm. Mkts uncertain. Large euro options at $1.15 expire today...
The Pakistani and Chinese foreign affairs ministers have met today in Beijing, according to Chinese state media. The meeting comes as **rumours** abound that Beijing could play a role as "guarantor" of any US-Iran deal.
The tariffs weren't trade policy, IMHO, they were tariff theatre. There were no specific goals, no studies, not even the slightest economic thought behind their design. > Is it a category error to evaluate them as economic policy. >They max'd political...
The market may not be the economy, but today, the economy is the market. The speed by which changes in market prices move into the economy has never been faster. #MarkToMarketEconomy
I presented my forthcoming eBook, World War Trade, in Paris last week. Here is the first coverage i've seen 💪 ✍️Guillaume de Calignon @gcalignon « Le choc douanier de Donald Trump pousse le reste du monde à se rapprocher .... les pays...
One thing that's really impressive is China moving up the manufacturing value chain, while still absolutely dominating the low end. As @Camrjohnson has pointed out (and industry data confirms), China still absolutely dominates in areas like Christmas ornaments.
This is, honestly, less than I might've guessed given A) An insane run up at the start of the year. B) Expected to be a very hard-hit economy. In fact, the market had fallen ~20% even before the start of the...
Stocks up strongly, US Dollar weakens on war exhaustion. Reports that Trump wants to end Iran war even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. But can the rally last will Oil over $100? Here are my thoughts on it...
This is a very interesting piece on Chinese companies moving production to Vietnam. In some sense it's happening at major scale. But also in some other sense, it's very minor, with very little of the TVA leaving China. https://t.co/ZixLeXz4nC https://t.co/BnujaABZ5M
Gas at the pump just hit $4/gallon. US stepped up attacks on Iran hitting missile depots. Unclear if this will lead to more escalation or signals a peak. Ukraine hit Russian oil production facilities almost 1000km from its border which will...
LNG DEMAND DESTRUCTION ALERT 🇻🇳🚨 A proposed Vietnam LNG power project is asking the government to switch to a renewables+battery plant, citing surging fuel prices linked to the Middle East conflict Vietnam was expected to be a high-growth LNG importer https://t.co/ac6gBNmCDr
Iran’s parliament approved a formal toll and access regime for the Strait of Hormuz but bars vessels linked to the US, Israel and countries that have imposed unilateral sanctions on Iran from passage. https://t.co/c28zaLYYtE
🇪🇺 Euro area HICP flash estimate came in below expectations, with both core goods (-23bp) and services inflation (-13bp) down in March. Early days, focus will be any signs of second-round effects, etc etc. https://t.co/AaktjkVaKZ
JAPAN: nice job getting out of this market with the Nikkei down -13.2% in the last month = #Quad3 Slowing https://t.co/ckYlpWSopM
FPIs sell a record 111,000 cr. in March 2026. That's the highest ever in a single month, eclipsing the Oct 2024 94,000 cr. or so then. https://t.co/FOfZQAttkq
In March: - US dollar set for best month since 2024, bond yields poised for largest monthly rise since 2024 - S&P poised for biggest monthly drop since 2022 -Brent crude set for its biggest ever monthly gain - Average US gas prices are...
Istat falling asleep at the wheel at the one time in the year when their data actually matter ...
Expectedly @Hedgeye > German retail sales declined unexpectedly in Feb, dropping 0.6% in real terms compared to Jan, according to preliminary data from Destatis
Good Morning from Germany, where retail sales unexpectedly fell in February. Sales dropped 0.6% MoM, while analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had expected a 0.3% increase. This marks the 2nd consecutive monthly decline. Notably, the weakness came even before the outbreak of...
In a shocking turn of events, German economists discover that govt policy of increasing supply more effective than subsidizing demand at controlling prices.
The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe hasn't officially released M2 Money Supply data since December 2025. ZIM = A MASTERCLASS IN POOR ECONOMIC DATA. https://t.co/19E41X3pxN
Advance HICP data tracking a slight upside surprise in the EZ headline today, but the core likely fell, and the Italian number should be soft as the wild jump in services inflation in February, Winter Olympics, reverse.
The AI boom is running into an unexpected constraint. The Iran conflict is disrupting helium supply from Qatar, a key input in semiconductor manufacturing for AI systems. As availability tightens, costs rise and production becomes more fragile. It is a reminder that...
Following its 2025 hidden-debt scandal, Senegal tapped €650M in undisclosed borrowing to finance itself. Typical. In 2024, Senegalese Pres. Bassirou Faye ran on an anti-corruption platform. https://t.co/RynjocejJG
Singapore warns of higher power bills for months due to the Middle East conflict 🇸🇬📈 The country was getting half of its LNG from Qatar (which is now shut) "Everyone can play a part by using more energy-efficient appliances and conserving...
UK food exports to US slumped after Trump imposed trade tariffs https://t.co/vsOWUTylXc via @DeutschJill https://t.co/aPoz8tsV0L
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: India's minister of external affairs, S. Jaishankar says India will not be a “go-between country like Pakistan" in the US-Israeli war on Iran. S. JAISHANKAR = A WISE MAN. https://t.co/JFnuxXvlKV
🌍 Global News Update: ⦿ US 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.32% for second session, as Powell noted long-term inflation expectations appear in check. ⦿ RBA minutes: Oil near USD 100/barrel could raise headline CPI to 5% in June quarter, with inflation...
Asia's coal benchmark is at a 17-month high as Middle East conflict chokes gas supplies 🪨⚠️ Australian Newcastle coal futures for April hit $144.25/ton on Monday (the March contract expired Friday at $135.60) Asian countries are expanding use of coal to cut...
A lack of economic flexibility dooms the UK to a worse war outcome than its European neighbors, argues @marcusashworth https://t.co/7dZ4ZHPU9h via @opinion https://t.co/Eke35KTZuW
Are we moving from inflation fears to growth fears now ? I don't think so just yet , but well , that's a big possibility. If yields come under pressure with elevated oil prices , it will be your signal that markets...
Goldman on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait: Russia accounts for 44% of oil exports via the Strait and Saudi Arabia for 42%, with nearly 90% of total flows going to Asia. https://t.co/Y8kpvJJoaC
