Russians Fill French Void in Mali, Face Control Challenges
When the French withdrew from the region, the Russians stepped in and picked up operations. However, maintaining control in the region is no easy feat, and the Russians are figuring that out. #russia #mali #geopolitics https://t.co/YjzFnUuwhy
US Government Borrowing Now Mirrors External Deficits
"net US liabilities reached 24 per cent of global output in 2024 against a mere 6 per cent in 2008, and... the US private sector has moved into balance. So, the domestic counterpart of its external deficits today is borrowing...
BRL Set to Slip Below 4
The Brazilian Real $/BRL exchange rate during the oil spike in 2022 never quite made it below my 4.50 fair value. But it will during the current oil shock... https://t.co/6FPSc1Z02s https://t.co/jVERTF9raD
Emerging Markets Still Undervalued—Diversify Now
Saw an ad from another firm that said: "Emerging Markets: the train has left the station, but you can still catch it" 10/10. Never too late to diversify. Especially with EM valuations *still* way below US and DM.
Brazil's Money Supply Outpaces Golden Growth, Fuelling Inflation
#BrazilWatch🇧🇷: Brazil's CPI accelerated to 4.1%/yr in March. Brazil’s M4 is growing at 10.8%/yr. That is ABOVE Hanke’s Golden Growth Rate of 7.1%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its 3.0%/yr inflation target. INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/ayWWLxT21X
Sweden's Recovery Slowed by Iran Conflict, Ministry Says
Sweden’s finance ministry sees the recovery slowed by the Iran war https://t.co/spXk5dvrJ3 via @CharlesDuxbury https://t.co/yZ03TX0KeP
ECB Hosts ESMA Chair to Discuss EU Capital Market Integration
Happy to welcome ESMA Chair Verena Ross to the @ecb today. We had a good discussion about the Savings and Investments Union, the integration of EU capital markets, and the broader economic outlook. https://t.co/nzStkOz1os
Services, Not Manufacturing, Drive Mass Income Growth
despite what your local politicians tell you, the path to higher income for large populations is the services sector, not manufacturing. v useful dataviz on the long term labor market
Oil Stagnates; Iranian Officials May Finally Respond
We are basically in the same position we were on Monday, when oil prices were significantly higher. The only difference is that people who don’t make the decisions in Iran are maybe going to respond to a memo…
Deficits Are Tools, Not Moral Judgments—Ask What They Solve
Deficits aren’t inherently good or bad. They’re a tool. The real question is: what problem are they solving? Econ is annoyingly context-dependent like that. https://t.co/BojSAGUXL3
58% Execs Predict More Localized Supply Chains by 2030
Survey of 1,800 global executives from Prologis and The Harris Poll finds a majority, 58%, forecast more localized supply chains by 2030, with only 31% expecting continued globalization. (My write-up in @forbes) https://t.co/4afHA5ytaD
Running the Economy Hot Boosts Productivity Growth (TFP)
Running the economy hot is good for productivity growth (TFP). More on this in the Chartbook Top Links today. https://t.co/nGLBPhtgPz
NY Fed Index Hits Covid-Level Supply Chain Disruptions
🇺🇸 The NY Fed Global Supply Chain Pressure Index jumped in April to Covid-like disruption levels. https://t.co/ywfPzNS5oq https://t.co/23NKq4esGS
US‑Iran Language Clash Masks Real Strait of Hormuz Status
Setting aside the nuclear situation, there's an issue with the 1st point right off the bat - language. The US says "Iran lift its chokehold over the SoH" and Iran says "SoH is open...follow these protocols (incl. payment)." Both sides agree on...
War Dragging Pushes Global Pivot Toward China, Russia
My view on @soarfinancial on the REAL WINNERS of the US-Israeli war on Iran: "The longer the war goes & the more pain that's imposed around the world, the more people are going to PIVOT towards China & Russia... The US...
Iran War Spikes Supply‑chain Pressure; Tariffs Stay Flat
Tariffs did not register any meaningful move last year in the New York Fed's index that measures global supply chain pressures. The Iran war, on the other hand, moved the line up notably in April https://t.co/kDmPxpgitg https://t.co/92UmxGrKV4
Shipping Firms Doubt Trump's Project Freedom; Iran Controls Hormuz
The New York Times reports that shipping companies have ZERO confidence in Pres. Trump's Project Freedom. Contrary to Pres. Trump's statements, CONTROL of the STRAIT OF HORMUZ is in IRAN'S HANDS and will probably remain so. IRAN REMAINS LOCKED AND LOADED. https://t.co/HOyQSr31S1
K‑Shape Myth: Unequal Groups, Not Balanced Arms and Legs
When people talk about the K-Shaped Economy, they talk about its arm and leg. That characterization unknowingly suggests a reasonable equivalence in population between those on the arm and leg. Nothing could be further from the truth.
War Fuels Profit Swings, Leaves Iran Richer
So then the outcome of the war is that some people make money off of price swings and Iran ends up better off than before.
Iran's Sole Leverage: Oil Price Spikes, Trump Counters
Thanks to @HolmanJenkins from the @WSJ for including me in this piece. Iran's only weapon in this standoff is to spike oil prices. The Trump administration has done a good job neutralizing this by periodically reminding markets oil prices can...
Tariffs Threaten Small Businesses, Forcing Indiana Music Store to Close
"For some small businesses, tariffs don’t just mean higher costs — they mean shutting down. A music store in Indiana is facing exactly that reality." https://t.co/raU0cyVQzu
China's Domestic Coal Shields It From Energy Price Shocks
Because of its heavy reliance on domestically-mined coal, China is far less vulnerable to global energy price shocks than the EU. This and more featured in the Chartbook Top Links today. https://t.co/XIXIgRqQmP
Zero‑tariff Apples Land in Shenzhen, Boosting SA‑China Trade
The first shipment of South African apples arrived in Shenzhen, China on May 1. Benefiting from zero-tariff treatment, the 24-ton consignment received a tariff saving of approximately R50,000. More South African products are expected to enter the Chinese market as...
Argentina Must Cut Rates, Keep ARS Short-Term
Macro: Argentina needs lower rates to re-access markets; persistent inflation and no new debt constrain easing. Risk: sticky inflation delays cuts. Trade: prefer short-duration ARS exposure until clear disinflation. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Markets Defy History: Valuations, Debt, Bonds, Housing Shift
Animal Spirits: The Stock Market is Doing Something We've Never Seen Before Paul Tudor Jones on valuations Hyperscaler super growth Govt debt to GDP at 100% A lost decade for long bonds Why housing didn't turn into a bubble this time & more https://t.co/yXVafVnLqa https://t.co/IiaeesCmJw
China Expands Global Logistics to Control Supply Chains
Chinese firms and logistics in other countries. More if China trying to control global trade supply chains and logistics?
Yield Spikes Don’t Predict Iran Peace Deal Leaks
"Professor, don't you find it curious that a new US-Iran peace deal leaks almost every time the 10y UST yield breaks 4.4% on the upside?" "Actually, if I think about it, I don't find it curious at all." https://t.co/aMqLenpJp8
China‑Russia Trade Equals Oregon’s Entire Economy
Total trade between China and Russia is roughly $250B annually. Or about the size of Oregon's GDP...
US‑Iran MOU: Temporary Pause, Not True Stability
This US-Iran MOU isn’t peace—it’s a timeout. 30-day talks, partial Hormuz reopening, enrichment caps. But with no trust, damaged flows, and fragile enforcement, one breach resets everything. Not stability. Just a pause inside the escalation trap. #oil #Hormuz #geopolitics #energy
Treasury Repo Investment Could Slightly Lower Rates
TGA invested in repo idea 101 A little tidbit in the weeds that will definetly get overblown by people on here Currently the treasury keeps its checking account with the Fed. Which because it's part of the consolidated balance sheet of...
China Urges Iran Ceasefire, Hormuz Reopening Ahead of Xi‑Trump Summit
FT: China calls for Iran war ceasefire and Hormuz to reopen in meeting with top envoy Beijing’s foreign minister meets his Iranian counterpart days before summit between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump https://t.co/9alWj104ho
Trump’s Iran Gambit Becomes Historic US Strategic Defeat
It’s becoming clearer with each passing day that Trump’s military misadventure in Iran will be one of the greatest strategic defeats in US history.
Apollo CEO Predicts Disruptive Shift: Geopolitics, Inflation, Tech Overhaul
Apollo CEO Marc Rowan on 1Q call said he thinks that there's a "greater than average chance" of an "out of the box" event, which he attributes to: (1) a "total geopolitical reset" (2) "almost everything we're doing, whether intentional...
US‑Iran Deal Hype Fades as Brent Slides Below $100
Be Careful: Don’t Fall for the US-Iran Deal Hype — Brent Drops Below $100 https://t.co/1xmqJkWtPm
Oil Price Panic Forecasts Are Scare Tactics, Not Reality
I've been pushing back against apocalyptic oil price forecasts for 2 months now. Of course you can make lots of scary scenarios, but the lesson from 2026 - like in 2022 after the Ukraine invasion - is that those are...
Trump Faces High‑Risk Iran Escalation Amid Economic Decline
Four Scenarios for the Iran War by Nouriel Roubini After failing to clinch a decisive victory against Iran, US President Donald Trump is now facing deteriorating macroeconomic conditions ahead of November's midterm elections. With his options limited, he has been...
Policymakers' Stock Market Control Sparks New Inflation Risk
Introducing the Yield Smile. Just like the dollar smile, but for bond yields in a fiscal-dominant world. Move too far down in stocks and deficits blow out, move to strong in the economy and inflation remains persistent. Policymakers are now directly managing...
Powell Defended Fed Independence, yet Made Costly Mistakes
Just published: My take on Jerome Powell’s complicated legacy--one of resilience in defending Fed independence, weighed against missed opportunities to enhance effectiveness and costly errors beyond just monetary policy. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/powell-legacy-fed-defender-but-also-policy-mistakes-by-mohamed-a-el-erian-2026-05 #economy #federalreserve #markets @prosyn
Dedollarization Fails: Rubles Require Dollars to Acquire
What does it take to buy Russian energy? Rubles. How many outside Russia have Rubles? Almost no one. Where does one get Rubles? Gazprom. How do you get them? With US dollars. 😂 This is how you write Dedollarization in Cyrillic…
Potential Iran Deal Pushes Oil Lower, Energy Stocks Slide
🚨 Oil & Energy Selloff 🚨 Energy names getting hit hard this morning as geopolitics shift fast 👀 🛢️ Oil & Energy Stocks: -8.05% Axios reporting the US and Iran are nearing a 14-point framework to end the conflict — triggering a potential...
Dollar Poised to Weaken Once War Ends
Regardless of whether the latest headlines are true or not, they're a natural experiment for how the Dollar will trade when the war ends. The Dollar is back down to near its pre-war lows against EM. As soon as war...
Japan's Finance Ministry Likely Intervened in Yen Again
Japanese markets were closed overnight but looks like the Ministry of Finance may have intervened in the Japanese Yen again? Size of the move questionable. Thoughts? 👇 https://t.co/T1WsdkfFDF
Peace Deal Would Boost US Iran Oil Blockade
If we end up with a peace agreement - a big if at this stage - that'll count as a big win for the US blockade of Iran. Since Russia invaded Ukraine, the key question for the West has been...
Staggering EM Reserve Losses Expose Policy Failures
The scale of EM reserve losses during this shock is staggering. More than anything, that tells you about policy dysfunction in certain EMs. Turkey kept its peg to USD, so it had no choice but to intervene a ton. Pakistan...
China E‑commerce Shipments Fell 6% YoY in March
Analysis by Aevean shows that in March, e-commerce volumes from China declined by 6% yoy. https://t.co/OMyf88X13r via @Air_Cargo_News https://t.co/3bjqpr8Srq
Investors Fear Labour Loss May Spark Debt‑Increasing Leadership Change
JUST IN: Investors are nervous that a poor Labour result could trigger a rapid leadership change, with candidates to replace PM Starmer likely increasing the UK's debt further.
Energy Shocks Tighten Budgets, Downgrade Slovakia, Strain CEE
JUST IN: Energy shocks and support measures are straining Central and Eastern European finances, with Romania facing further budget tightening and risks to 2027 budget talks, negative outlooks for Hungary and Romania, and Slovakia's recent downgrade.
UAE's OPEC Exit Increases Volatility, Needs US Action
In my latest @nytimes oped, I argue UAE exit from OPEC may not be the win Trump thinks it is. A weaker OPEC could mean more volatility, which is economically costly. The US should take steps to cushion shocks &...
Tuareg‑Al Qaeda Alliance Forces Russians Out of Sahel
The Russians are getting the boot from the Sahel, and it's all thanks to an unusual alliance between Tuareg separatists and a local branch of Al-Qaeda. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/C3CKmswVyy #russia #geopolitics https://t.co/Kz24SrFroY
Risk Appetite Soars as US Halts Hormuz Escort, Dollar Falls
The US has suspended the escort service in the Strait of Hormuz and risk-appetites have jump. Equities and bonds have surged, while the greenback slumps. China re-opens and set USD fix at new multiyear low. See https://t.co/swSYFvpDgy https://t.co/UUCWRyRfJ8