ECB's Gold Revaluation Gains €18.9 Bn From Price Surge
Just catching up on the ECB's 2025 accounts which were out earlier this week and see the gold revaluation account got a nice €18.9 billion uplift from the rise in the price of gold. https://t.co/DDpMzCZMqv
US War Sentiment Eases, Asian Markets Surge
Positive, as another Trump easing drove stocks up in Asia. UK, German now both +2%. US futures pointing to another record high tonight. Gold and silver higher. Brent oil sharply 9% down, sitting just above $100. Seems like US are done...
Weak OPEC Fuels More Frequent Global Boom‑bust Cycles
"A less effective OPEC might seem a blessing when prices fall, but it would force the world to endure more frequent booms and busts." by @JasonBordoff https://t.co/BwcxkY65AH
Financial Stability Depends on Global Collective Resilience
From the Financial Times column “We must be mindful of the risks of private credit,” by Andrew Bailey (Governor of the Bank of England and Chair of the Financial Stability Board): “We must remember that financial stability is a global...
Macro Breadth Returns: Lower Rates and Oil Boost EPS
Today’s backdrop is the broadest macro & micro backdrop we’ve seen since 2021. While AI themes remain dominant, a more classic macro broadening has been taking place since 4Q/25, for the first time in years. Lower rates/oil can help to...
Easing Tensions Historically Trigger Bond Price Declines
i'm old enough to remember the days when headlines suggesting easing tensions and less uncertainty would mean bond prices fell... https://t.co/KaynvMrU0Q
Sweden, Norway Hold Rates Amid Divergent Inflation Paths
Central banks in Sweden and Norway are both set to keep borrowing costs steady this week, albeit against inflation backdrops that contrast starkly between each neighbor https://t.co/iUgLSEz7vW via @ottummelas @CharlesDuxbury https://t.co/BrSbkWSLKj
Mini‑deals Could Unlock Billions in EU Export Growth
#tradeXpresso: today @EP_Trade puts mini-deals on top of @Trade_EU agenda. Rightly so. EU has lots of mini-deals. Mostly invisible, but shaping bn in trade. My take: more mini-deals (e.g. Korea #MRA) can boost EU export gains. https://t.co/0b6O5H74an @MarosSefcovic @berndlange https://t.co/7f76GiEiYh
Oil Retreats as Gold, Silver Rally Amid Hormuz News
headlines suggest a ship got through Hormuz... market sells off oil to buy gold & silver... https://t.co/m7V4eqZnEK
Potential Gulf Oil Surge If US‑Iran Deal Holds
IF the Axios report about a the US expecting a one-page MOU with Iran to end the war is true... And IF Iran confirms... And IF it is indeed signed... And IF it is honoured... And IF negotiations to reopen SoH succeed in the...
UK Gilts Rise on Oil Dip Amid US‑Iran Deal Hopes
A better morning for UK gilts as oil prices fall sharply after a US media report that America and Iran are “very close” to a deal. While the drop in yields is welcome, expect continued volatility in the days ahead, driven...
UK Firms Add Fuel Surcharges Amid Rising Input Costs
UK firms impose fuel surcharges as input costs soar, PMI shows https://t.co/FVlBS5sjzs via @tomelleryrees https://t.co/FqfXhAepo9
UK Growth Steady, Inflation Surges, Rate Hike Needed
@Robwoodecon on the UK PMIs -> "Growth holds up and inflation rockets, the MPC will need to hike."
Strait of Hormuz Reopening Hinges on Immediate MOU Deal
According to the @Axios report, the Strait of Hormuz would only re-open "gradually" during a 30-day period of negotiations *if* an initial deal on a single page memorandum of understanding can be achieved in the next few hours/days. https://t.co/Ak6nBF0FRK
ADNOC's Second Covert LNG Shipment Routes Through Hormuz
Adnoc appears to have discreetly exported another LNG shipment via Hormuz 🇦🇪🚢 Mraweh was empty when it stopped transmitting its location east of Hormuz in April. Then it reappeared today loaded, heading to Japan If confirmed, would be 2nd LNG export via...
US Yield Rise Pressures Indian Stocks, Watch 10‑Year
Rising US bond yields have had a negative effect on Indian stock markets in the recent period since 2024. This pattern may persist till it does not. Right now US yields are nudging higher and that is a pressure point...
UK Long-Term Borrowing Costs Reach 1998 High
UK long-term borrowing costs hit their HIGHEST LEVELS since 1998. RUSSOPHOBE STARMER IS CAPTAINING A SINKING SHIP. https://t.co/BBGoJG8ZMz
ECB Wage Tracker Stays Stable, No Second‑round Inflation Signs
🇪🇺 Latest update to the ECB's wage tracker has remained broadly stable around levels consistent with price stability, and showing no signs of second-round effects. https://t.co/lReQ51MJvs https://t.co/50YJRx98ru
Aging Migrant Workforce Shifts to Low-Pay Service Jobs
1/3 Another very interesting Caixin article, this time on migrant workers: "China’s migrant workforce is aging as more workers move into lower-paying service jobs, putting pressure on income growth amid a shifting economic landscape." https://t.co/0caseuTyjM
China Urges EU to Drop Discriminatory Investment Rules
China Daily: "China has called on the EU to remove discriminatory requirements against foreign investors, local content mandates, compulsory transfers of intellectual property and technology, and restrictions on public procurement." https://t.co/WiZSoHM4tE
Pakistani Debt Soars 55% in Four Years
#PAKWatch🇵🇰: Pakistani debt and liabilities are UP 55% in the last 4 years. PAK = MISMANAGEMENT = CAN’T COMPETE WITH INDIA. FREE IMRAN KHAN. https://t.co/214ychMmR8
China’s Wind Surge Outpaces Global Capacity, Proves Prescient
NYT: "Last year, China installed three times as much wind power capacity as the rest of the world combined, even as its turbine exports jumped. The war has made China’s investments in wind look prescient." https://t.co/9AvdVUmIDM
Tariffs Yield Minimal Deficit Gains, Need Systemic Policy
WSJ: "The figures measure the limited progress made toward the Trump administration’s goal of reducing the deficit in the 12 months after President Trump rolled out steep global tariffs in April 2025." Not much surprise here. Trade policies only work if...
Martin Wolf Decodes Global Imbalances with Systemic Insight
1/9 Brilliant article by Martin Wolf on global imbalances. Wolf is one of the few economists who have an intuitive sense of the global economy as an economic system, which means he is also one of the few who understands how...
China Tightens Global Port Control, Plays Long Game
The Economist reports that China has a TIGHTENING GRIP on critical ports AROUND THE WORLD. CHINA = KNOWS HOW TO CAREFULLY PLAY THE LONG GAME. https://t.co/OtRhEJQxj2
Sovereign Wealth Funds: Backdoor Fiscal Expansion via Investor-Controlled Spending
In this piece, I look at the outbreak of Western Sovereign Wealth Funds from Canada's new proposal to the UK's NWF and conclude they're mostly a way to raise money for industrial policy projects without flipping out bond markets. Aka...
Financial Crisis Inevitable: Prepare Now, Pre‑emptive Action Impossible
✍️ Martin Wolf warns: 💥Prepare for a financial crisis. @martinwolf_ @ftopinion 👉chances of pre-emptive action (to close imbalances) “are close to zero” 👉”Whatever ability we had to do this has vanished in an age of populism, nationalism and multiple follies” 👉”The second best...
Pakistan Rushes to Secure LNG Amid Gas Shortage
Pakistan is urgently looking to buy more LNG to help ease its gas shortage 🇵🇰⚠️ The government is seeking two cargoes for May delivery. This comes after Pakistan recently bought its first spot shipment in over two years The Middle East conflict...
Asian Markets Surge on Trump‑backed Iran Optimism, Chip Rally
"Asian markets rally as Trump signals optimism for Iran deal South Korea, Taiwan shares hit fresh highs amid chip frenzy" https://t.co/V3d6axgmwB
China Purchases Iranian Oil Ahead of Trump's Beijing Visit
China is buying Iranian oil despite US sanctions. This is happening right before Trump makes his trip to Beijing. https://t.co/1J4eVbH5YU
Even Flawed, America Stays Global Leader—Listen Up
I often get accused of saying U.S. can do no wrong. But its quite the opposite. U.S. has made decades of innumerable mistakes. The consequences of which are now being felt. Yet despite this it still remains atop global order....
US Leaders Dismissed Full Hormuz Shutdown as Improbable
A full Hormuz shutdown was not taken seriously by the Trump administration, writes @AmyAHarder Also not by Biden or G.W. Bush It was considered "too improbable" I wonder what energy blind bozos they consulted on this matter #OilMarkets #EnergyRisk
US‑Mexico Ties Deepen After a Century of Challenges
.@DeputySecState Christopher Landau says the US and Mexico "has been a challenging relationship, and I think on a day to day basis, it's easy to lose sight of the bigger picture" of how very far it has come from 50-100...
Glenn's Arrogance Masks Repeated China Trade Misconceptions
Glenn's arrogance is incredible given his long history of clinging stubbornly to inaccurate arguments (no overcapacity in China's exports, China doesn't "really" have a trade surplus, SAFE produces accurate BoP that no one outside China should challenge ....) 1/
Stagflation Signals Policymakers May Look Through Inflation
Today’s ISM report was yet another very stagflationary report. Prices paid spiked to 3-year highs, while employment fell to 2-year lows. How will policymakers respond if this persists? They will ease into weakness and look through inflation. https://t.co/jC5yXTTjzf https://t.co/ObkzsVTJFG
Trump Pauses Strait of Hormuz Reopening, Worsening Impacts
Trump. Pausing reopening the Strait. Not good new as the physical impact is beginning. Making the economic impact worse.
World Rushes for Gold as Fiat Fears Rise
Despite all the typical American doomer narratives, the reason for the large gold exports from the U.S. to the rest of the world…is the rest of the world is much concerned about their own fiat currencies dying than the US...
Don’t Debate Policy without First Grasping the Paper
There are lots of interesting things about this paper to discuss. What exactly are they identifying and how does that map to the counterfactual policy proposals people debate? You’ll get none of that from types trying to score some dunk...
US Halts Naval Escort Project Amid Pakistan
$USD softens POTUS pauses Project Freedom naval escort initiative--said to be at the request of Pakistan and "other countries". US blockade remains in place. June WTI comes off (~1.5%).
Iran's Blockade Over Humanitarian
Please explain to me like I’m 5 or a golden retriever why stopping the humanitarian effort to get ships out but keep the blockade going is what Iran wants and we happily agree to?
Trump Halts Hormuz Escort Mission, Citing Iran Deal Progress
Trump pauses U.S. bid to guide ships out of Strait of Hormuz, cites Iran deal progress: CNBC
US Hypocritically Slaps Auto Tariffs While Condemning EU Protectionism
Not sure the US can criticize the EU for protectionism with a straight face .... Really bad talking point when the US is raising tariffs on autos in a way that clearly violates the EU-US trade trade framework. Embassing TBH
Germany's US Container Lead Shrinks as Italy Rises
Germany has been Europe's largest ocean (containerized) exporter to the US for a long time. In 2016, the gap was 250,000 TEUs. In 2025, it's down to 39,000. Italy is about to take #1. Turkey 2.5x'd. Denmark doubled. Poland grew 50%. Germany?...
Trump Admin Abandons Trade Deficit, Ignores AI Import Tariffs
Guess the Trump administration has lost interest in bringing the trade deficit down. Fair enough; tis clear that they aren't going to tariff the imports central to the AI boom ... 1/2
China’s Quiet on Hormuz: Strategic Silence Explained
Cousin @JacobShap and I wax about China and whether its relative silence on Hormuz makes sense or not. https://t.co/0s4iCkXS7Q
U.S. Reexports Q1 2025 Gold Over Tariff Fears
Nope. We are reexporting gold that came into the US in q1 2025 out of fear of potential gold tariffs ... 1/2
K‑Shape: Assets Rise, Prices Fall, Winners vs Losers
The K-Shaped Experience Asset inflation on the arm. Price inflation on the leg. One is either a beneficiary or a victim.
War‑Driven Fuel Surge Pushes US Airline Fares Up 24%
Thanks to US-Israeli war on Iran, jet fuel prices have more than doubled. Domestic US fares have SOARED by 24%, and international fares have SURGED 50% since Jan. 5. AIRLINE PASSENGERS SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR DAMAGES TO TRUMP & NETANYAHU. https://t.co/aeXlO0ZxmJ
Moulin's Credentials Meet, but Gender Diversity Remains Missing
Emmanuel Moulin has the credentials and the experience to be appointed Governor of the Banque de France. He’s also: - part of Macron’s inner circle of loyalists - not a woman
Trump’s Project Freedom Risks Bypassing Iran’s Strait
VIDEO COLUMN: Can President Trump’s new ‘Project Freedom’ unblock the Strait of Hormuz? I take a look at his high-risk, high-reward shipping plan, trying to circumvent Iran’s grip on the crucial waterway. @Opinion https://t.co/u6if9l4171