Global Economy Social Media and Updates
Global Economy Social Media and Updates
Global Economy Pulse
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Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: India is one of the largest importers of fertilizers sourced in the Gulf. Now, India has pivoted towards Russia. It is locking in long-term deals, to cut its reliance from the Gulf. IT’S A SIGN THAT THE ILL-CONCEIVED SANCTIONS REGIME IS STARTING TO BREAK DOWN. https://t.co/rFJHW8WLPJ
🇮🇳India: 9 India-bound energy vessels — carrying crude oil, LNG, and LPG — remain stranded at or near the Strait of Hormuz, unable to transit https://t.co/IzlRQxYqGH
China PMIs Signal Resilience as Mideast War Raises Uncertainty—Nonmanufacturing PMI, which covers both service and construction activity, also bounced back to growth territory https://t.co/JJM08eJIFF https://t.co/JJM08eJIFF
Indeed no Treasury has ever said "stop monetizing debt, that's inflationary." It is the independent central bank's job to push back on debt monetization.
I am a big fan of Chartbook and the collected works of Tooze -- but there is no way to look at China over the last 6 years and conclude that it has been a source of demand for the...
not a big fan of doing percentage shares of the outstanding when the outstanding is way up -- here is a chart of coupon supply as a stock normalized v GDP 1/2 https://t.co/yTbJuALpQ8
It is always difficult to sort signal from noise in the Chinese data/ trade data, & all the more so in q1. Right now all the February y/y comparisons are distorted by a weak February last year and...
This is the end of the petrodollar, writes @ekwufinance No it's not. The security-for-dollars deal is under stress But you don't undo a 36-year financial structure in 36 days. #Oil #Petrodollar #Geopolitics
What's next? Trump telling UAE he will accept their demands for US to stay in the war only if $500 bn in frozen Iranian assets in Gulf is confiscated and disbursed to US Treasury.... Biden tried it w/frozen Russian assets...
The AI bubble may be about to burst from the Iran crisis It depends on cheap energy, fragile supply chains & massive debt The Iran crisis exposes all three This is a potential trigger for a broader financial unwind https://t.co/09tvGAUw7k
According to Gemini this figure is now below the y-axis from @Rory_Johnston's chart. 495 Million barrels so a quarter billion barrel draw in a month https://t.co/PEEyloJs9H
Will the Iran war trigger a recession? Price action across global financial markets seems to have come up with the answer. #stockmarket #recession #IranWar #dollar #macro #trading https://t.co/Oll4XR3PQa
Trump getting bored of the Iran "excursion" only thing that will stem the market bleed. Futures up 0.8%
The Bank of England continues to be among the few major central banks to warn about the adverse effects of persistent trade imbalances. Although most models used by economists assume that trade is balanced, or is unbalanced only temporarily before...
Because of the US-Israeli war on Iran, Goldman Sachs projects that LNG will be 57% more expensive in Asia by 2028. US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN = MASSIVE COLLATERAL DAMAGE. Send the bill for damages to Trump and Netanyahu. https://t.co/zGDQ6V7G5Z
JUST IN: China's manufacturing sector is expanding again at the fastest rate in a year.
Didn’t sound like he’s thinking of interest rate increases as the market was starting to place bets on…
Would be so easy to fix this economy: - accelerate end to Iran war - end all but the most critical tariffs (meaning 99% end) - fund the DHS - Simplify and subsidize US energy infrastructure build out
Negative food consequences continue to unfold from the US/Israel War on Iran. Asian fertilizer plants are shutting in production.
Today, in a speech at Harvard, Fed Chair Powell claimed that QE (the explosion of the money supply) did not cause inflation, nor did it contribute to the massive increase in US income inequality post-COVID. Those statements are blatantly UNTRUE. THE FED...
The longer the strait remains closed, the more it will roil the global economy and boost gas prices. Multiple countries, including U.S. allies, are reeling from the downturn in energy supply that once flowed freely through the chokepoint. Industries that...
“China suppliers warn of higher prices for Americans due to Strait of Hormuz closure”, who writes these headlines at @CNBC 🤣! AI? https://t.co/B3hagjn68P
Tariffs were made up numbers said out loud. It’s pretty easy to TACO your way out of those. I’m not a rocket scientist, but wars and energy conflicts are not numbers on a posterboard you can just erase and rewrite.
Strait of Hormuz Update 30 March | Is Australia Running Out of Petrol? | Where are Trump's Tankers? Video: https://t.co/4WjNWhP2Hq https://t.co/uqAn5bK21P
JUST IN: U.S. crude oil surges past $100 for the first time since 2022, dragging Asia-Pacific markets lower.
NATOs core problem is misaligment: USAs enemy is China, but Europa sees China as a partner. Europas enemy is Russia but USA would like to do a reverse Nixon with Russia to weaking the Dragonbear ties. Europa supports Ukraine to fight against Russia...
The war in Iran sparks a global fertilizer shortage and threatens food prices https://t.co/xpr9UOnHTZ via @mySA
GS: We Now Forecast Only 1.7% Real Income Growth in 2026, With Significant Underperformance Among Lower-Income Households https://t.co/fOdqPIkwQw
1/ my new manifesto CAPITAL MARKETS MAXIMALISM There’s a version of the American reindustrialization story that goes like this: China ate our manufacturing base. Supply chains proved fragile. Now we need to build again. That story is true. But it’s incomplete....
In before times, headlines like these would lead to answers in the article. Under Trump 2.0, they’re just open questions. https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/30/world/americas/russian-oil-tanker-cuba.html
After the Iran war business concludes, we have China trade talks to look forward to. As you know, they have been treating us very poorly.
There has only been a few times in the past 20 years that the Volatility Index ($VIX) has traded at these levels: • 2008 Global Financial Crises 50+ • Covid-19 crash 50+ • U.S.-Iran Conflict 35+ Think of the VIX as a “fear”...
GS: Our 2026 Global Growth Forecast Has Declined Further Below Consensus After Last Week’s Commodity Price Forecast Upgrades https://t.co/lS1nu7BGIq
Remember when $5 actually bought a whole burrito? Now it barely covers the “existing in 2026” surcharge. 🌯 Inflation is wild, but your margins shouldn't be a gamble. Stay efficient. #Inflation #2026 #SupplyChain #Wholesale #Business #Economy #Distributor $BTC $ETH https://t.co/bj1A3YSoFH
More downside coming in the market. If this war continues for another month…expect 5% inflation with rate cuts out of the picture Study 2022
Happy to welcome the Bank of England to the growing club of "imbalancistas" Would just note that if they used the 2025 data rather than the 2024, the return of imbalances would be even more apparent. Asia's surplus went...
Global stocks saw largest equity selling in almost a year – Goldman Sachs Prime @seekingalpha https://t.co/acrlK2Ws65
Excellent, data-rich thread - and exactly the right way to judge the Liberation Day tariffs (ie, by the President's own standards/promises). THIS is why tariff fans obsess over pre-TACO predictions of Tariff Armageddon & claim "victory" when the worst doesn't...
"While the US will continue to outperform other advanced economies under almost any war scenario..." Bookmark that
If the 10Y breaks 4.5%… does geopolitics change? Or does policy get forced to change first? https://t.co/yInQSNy76L
"The 10Y and inflation moving up are not good for asset prices." Ram on @bitsandbips https://t.co/6eQLOwwmn9
the most consequential decision of trump’s presidency. war with iran. troops deploying. and the president still hasn't explained the strategy. @gzeromedia
What looks irrational is actually desperation @gbrew24 The U.S. can’t both punish Iran for exports & limit greater damage to global oil markets Then there’s China—possibly the only power capable of mediating an off ramp It’s why talk of seizing Kharg is...
A stark message from the IMF: "Although the war could shape the global economy in different ways, all roads lead to higher prices and slower growth." https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2026/03/30/how-the-war-in-the-middle-east-is-affecting-energy-trade-and-finance #economy #markets #growth #inflation @the_imf
Back to the market. Oil is surging, volatility is expanding, and sentiment is quickly turning bearish—that’s your first clue. When fear spreads wildly, you have to start thinking contrary. But let’s be clear: Powell has signaled he’s on hold until...
The stock market $ACWI is very close to its worst month since March 2020 -9.0% https://t.co/1hZc6AgZRS
🌳Saudi Exports, Houthis, and the Bab el Mandeb Bottleneck 🌳Russia LNG Exports Set to Hit Record High Egypt’s Challenges: Typical of Every Developing Country 🌳Shipping Rates Are Up Again – Here’s Why King Coal: For How Long? 🌳EU Oil and Gas Pinch: The Never-Ending Crisis 🌳Cuba...
As we monitor global bond markets, please keep an eye on whether France, Japan, and the UK mimic the retreat in US yields. The three G7 markets have already faced pressure from bond vigilantes since 2022. Whether they follow the US lead...
Williams of @NewYorkFed echoes Powell’s view this morning that the Fed can afford to wait and see the economic impact of the Iran war before making any policy moves. He expects the burst of inflation stemming from the war to fade...
War sucks. Markets dumping sucks. But this is exactly what we've been preparing for. I still think the markets far away from a full recovery. I shared my macro thoughts late last year; still very relevant today. Worth the read 👇
