Global Economy Social Media and Updates
Global Economy Social Media and Updates
Global Economy Pulse
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
"Maximilian Uleer and his team at Deutsche Bank developed a simple and useful index of the pressure on the president, an equal-weight measure composed of four-week changes in the S&P 500, the 10-year Treasury, short-term inflation expectations and the presidential approval rating. The heat is on:" @rbrtrmstrng https://t.co/byhKG0SdHw
I can't imagine why..👀👀 UK faces biggest hit to growth from Middle East war, OECD warns https://t.co/ktp9YMPz8O via @ft
The Saudis are lobbying the US for war to continue. On the surface, they want Iran to be properly defeated, but there's another reason. They're making lots more money now than before the war, even with somewhat lower export volumes...
UK faces worst hit from the war among major economies, OECD warns https://t.co/Uhp1SWBHHa via @PhilAldrick https://t.co/tx47vbOjRe
Germany sees the danger of its 2026 growth rate halving on the Iran crisis https://t.co/nHLUdPr4mQ via @KowalczeKamil https://t.co/VRembvehDw
The conflict in the Middle East is reviving the specter of inflation and hobbling the global economy just as it was showing signs of strengthening at the start of the year, the OECD says https://t.co/QZXRbRvX44 via @WHorobin https://t.co/YbWb9a8eX6
🚨 TRUMP SETS 4–6 WEEK DEADLINE TO END IRAN CONFLICT President Trump is pushing for a quick resolution within 4 to 6 weeks and has proposed a 15-point peace plan that includes dismantling Iran’s nuclear sites. Meanwhile, the U.S. is deploying 1,000...
The move higher in US yields has been entirely driven by term premia, not inflation expectations. Real yields on 10-year bonds are the highest in almost a year. The implication seems to be that investors are worried about the fiscal...
🇳🇴 Norges Bank hawkish pivot charted. The policy rate is expected to be raised "at one of the forthcoming meetings" assuming the economy "evolves broadly as currently envisaged". https://t.co/3LIbGfEvOW
Norway pivots toward a hike after keeping its rate steady at 4% https://t.co/NIIgGpvVNO via @ottummelas https://t.co/RxPhCKi99b
Germany is drafting a plan to hit US companies in the next Trump clash https://t.co/hK1ZWwcd6t via @KowalczeKamil @mcnienaber @jendeben https://t.co/KgvNfStbJo
Good Morning from Germany, where consumer sentiment is sliding as the Iran war fuels fears of stagflation. The GfK consumer sentiment index dropped by 3.2 points to -28.0, the weakest readings since 2024. Income expectations have fallen back into negative territory,...
Iran's bid to start charging a fee to vessels crossing the Strait of Hormuz (Tehran never ratified the UNCLOS despite signing it in 1982) is making other countries ensure they don't encounter such risks in other chokepoints -- the Straits...
1/6 Bloomberg: "“Singapore believes China can play a bigger role in supporting regional prosperity and stability,” Singapore Prime Minister Lawrence Wong said at the Boao Forum. “Its vast domestic market can be a powerful engine of growth for the region.” https://t.co/npbm7nXQEo
1/9 Reuters: "China said that Mexico's trade measures against it, including tariff increases, constitute trade and investment barriers and that it had the right to take countermeasures." rld/china/china-says-it-has-right-retaliate-against-mexicos-tariff-hikes-2026-03-25/
The East is Red provides a translation of a very interesting essay by Wang Xiaolu, Deputy Director of the National Economic Research Institute. The problem with the Chinese economy, Wang says (and as I have argued for over a decade), is...
The FAT TAIL for the Persian Gulf crisis Prolonged energy disruption & economic dislocation THRU 2027, says @ProfessorKaren That assumes the conflict is resolved in April or May
Even if a “deal” happens tomorrow, the damage doesn’t reset Kuwait Petroleum says full production recovery takes 3–4 months A ceasefire is just the start of a long, uneven rebuild #Oil #Kuwait #Hormuz #EnergyCrisis #SupplyShock #Geopolitics #OOTT #Markets
Tweedle Dum and Tweedle Dee agree that the opening the Strait of Hormuz is important Where's DOGE when you need to cut fraud and waste?
Finally, a little commerce is moving in the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranians benefit by charging up to $2 million for free passage and those who pass obviously benefit or they wouldn’t pay the transit fee. THREE CHEERS FOR COMMERCE. https://t.co/hzDa6MSkxF
Gasoline is telling you what this war really means. Up $1.00 a gallon in just 25 days. It's the first wave of the coming tsunami of inflation #GasPrices #Oil #Inflation #EnergyCrisis #Iran #Hormuz #Economy #Geopolitics #War #OOTT
“Weaponizing the Strait of Hormuz is not an act of aggression against one nation. It is economic terrorism against every nation, every family that depends on affordable energy and food.” Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. CEO Sultan Al Jaber says in speech at @MiddleEastInst...
BlackRock’s Rick Rieder said today he still thinks the 🇺🇸 Federal Reserve should cut interest rates - Bloomberg
Russia stopped exports of ammonium nitrate through April to ensure domestic supply during planting season. Russia controls a massive portion of global trade in ammonium nitrate at about 40%. IT LOOKS LIKE MOSCOW IS SAYING SANCTIONS WILL HAVE TO GIVE OR FERTILIZER...
These narratives are likely just a reflection of the U.S. searching for a symbolic win, rather than a practical military plan. #iranwar #marines #geopolitics https://t.co/tCey0wFpxi
Good morning, We are in Day 26 of the war and Asia is reeling from the conflict as we are most dependent on Middle oil and gas. Let's talk about how Asia is affected by this conflict, a thread. You can...
Yesterday, the EU struck a trade deal with Australia to secure access to critical minerals, like lithium and aluminum. According to the NYT, US tariffs pushed the deal forward. TRUMP’S TARIFFS = CREATING AMERICAN ENEMIES = PIVOT AWAY FROM UNCLE SAM. https://t.co/Suer5RGrQO
Fed’s Operating Losses Declined to $19 Billion in 2025, “Unrealized Losses” Declined to $844 Billion. QE hangover a little less atrocious after years of QT and lower interest rates https://t.co/iwXBD2STH5 https://t.co/JmA1t7ABYD
A thread on some work in progress, on China's US bond portfolio As the chart below shows, China's cumulative current account surplus has increased by $3 trillion since the end of 2019 -- and inflows into the US in the US...
US officials are examining what a potential spike in oil prices as high as $200 a barrel would mean for the economy, sources tell @hlowenkron @SalehaMohsin and me, a sign of studying possible fallout from extreme scenarios for the #Iran...
It’s only appropriate to revisit this chart after the recent move in markets. And yes… We’re still in the early innings of a regime shift from financial assets to hard assets. The reality is simple: Commodity markets play a critical role, yet their size...
This has been a week of the most confusing and contradictory headlines I’ve ever seen in 30 years. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that an exchange of messages between the two countries through mediators “does not mean negotiations with...
I thought this was an interesting interview with a former general about what "boots on the ground" in Iran might look like, and also what would (and wouldn't be accomplished) by some landing on Kharg Island https://t.co/DDEilUbnMz
Delighted to meet 🇯🇵’s Minister of Economy, Trade & Industry Ryosei Akazawa @ryosei_akazawa We spoke about how the Middle East war is impacting oil, gas & other commodities, with particular challenges for Asia – and how we can work together...
This is a really great divergent policy thought we should keep on our radar. If it comes to fruition, we could see a collapse in treasury yields. Fantastic work from @ericwallerstein ! “The solution: the Fed should expand FIMA access to sovereign wealth...
It's the first time in 60 years you've heard Bahrain, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar all sing from the same song sheet, saying status quo doesn't work. That's really good for everybody because that's a lot more trade into Asia. That'll...
The Market Bull/Bear Case: US-Israel War on Iran There's always a bull vs. bear case & I made mine. And just because market is trying to have a reflexive bounce, it doesn't negate that crash risk is still critical as fundamentals...
@grok There are about 20 LNG cargoes stranded in the Gulf because of the Hormuz crisis, explain to my followers how they lose LNG due to evaporation.
I said last June-July: China got the message, Hormuz Strait will be closed, and started preparing for it. Read details below.
My appearance today @OnPointRadio with @MeghnaWBUR talking about the Strait of Hormuz. On Point: https://t.co/X1Zkk3Qebt Spotify: https://t.co/ZpzVC27zml Apple: https://t.co/4ahkNZRGed
My BNN Bloomberg conversation from earlier today for those who missed it. Talked about the state and trajectory of the Iran War, the growing physical-sentiment disconnect in oil markets, and how nothing really matters unless traffic through the Strait of Hormuz...
Canada Doesn’t Need New Pipelines, Despite Oil Shock Economist Werner Antweiler says that a short-term oil shock doesn't overcome the many reasons why Asia won't be a market for Alberta heavy sour crude. #abpoli #ableg https://youtu.be/GUwULJF2jfc
IEA chief to brief EU finance ministers on Iran war impact this week https://t.co/MQ3pSEFj3B via @europressos https://t.co/7Eo8OA83pz
Italy is said to plan cutting growth forecast to as low as 0.5% https://t.co/H1osZtypmg via @Alemrome @donatopmancini https://t.co/NxADoXpQ0s
This volatile oil price remains at the mercy of a flood of (often-contradictory) headlines emanating from the three warring parties — US, Iran, and Israel. #economy #oil #markets #energy #middleeastwar
Going live with Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran in 40 minutes - tune in! @federalreserve
TLT lost $1.2B. HYG lost $623M. 10Y at 4.38% and rising. In a war. Who buys the bond dip? Foreign CBs may be selling to defend currencies vs DXY near 100. Pension funds face oil inflation that muddies the real yield math. Rate-cut traders...
Oil prices up 20% in weeks. 1 day alone added 9%. In 1973, a supply shock like this wiped 45% off the stock market and sent gold up over 2000%. I have spent 55 years building an alternative framework for understanding how...
🚨Hormuz Crisis goes global: Europe is heading for energy shortages, massive price spikes, and deeper reliance on Russian energy. 🚨What is next for US commercial crude inventories after the SPR release? Daily Energy Report https://t.co/W33F3aHN9V
The market prices a ceasefire and full-scale war simultaneously. Diplomatic pause: oil -10%. Iran denial: oil +4%. SPY -0.80%. Same week. Opposite pricing. 48 hours apart. Beneath the whipsaw, TLT keeps bleeding. Spreads widen. Copper stays down 10% monthly. Breadth broken. Geopolitical noise drives...
