Lagarde Admits Uncertainty, Confirms Drift From Baseline
Lagarde: we don't know where exactly we are relative to the baseline scenario; we do know we are moving away.
Economist's Forecast Proven: Hormuz Strait Still Closed
The Economist cover is right this time [if Hormuz remains closed, which is still is] https://t.co/s9dyaHjaCU
Iran Blockade Prediction Matches Current Brent Surge; Little Upside Left
In this post from back in March, I calculated that an Iran blockade would cause Brent to rise 80% from pre-war levels. That's exactly where we are now based on the July Brent future. The case for oil prices to...
PCE Inflation Peaks at 3.5% Amid Iran Conflict
JUST IN: PCE Inflation jumped to 3.5% in March, the highest in three years (since May 2023). This is a direct result of the war in Iran. And the pain will almost certainly be worse in April and (likely) May. Core...
Jobless Claims Hit Lowest Level Since 1969
*US JOBLESS CLAIMS 189,000 IN APRIL 25 WEEK; EST. 212K This is the lowest reading since September 1969! (Note: this week is subject to revisions) https://t.co/E7TDSpivny
Powell Warns Fed Independence Is Under Threat
In today’s Morning Money, I write about Chair Powell’s striking statement that Fed independence is “at risk.” https://t.co/LT9Rd9oAi5
July Oil Futures Hit $108, Pricing Gulf Shortfall
The June Brent future (black) expires today, so a better gauge for oil prices is the July future (pink) that is $108 and up 80% since the start of the year. By any stretch of the imagination, this fully prices...
ECB Holds Rates at 2%, Flags Inflation Upside, Growth Downside
#ECB keeps rates steady. Deposit rate at 2% as expected. Sees upside inflation risks, downside growth risks. https://t.co/wmrCEOkbf7
ECB Warns of Rising Inflation Risks, Growth Slowdown
🇪🇺 ECB: on alert, but not overreacting 👏 "the upside risks to inflation and the downside risks to growth have intensified" "longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored, although inflation expectations over shorter horizons have moved up significantly"
US Gas Prices Surge to $4.30, Adding $70 Monthly
Oof. The US national gas average just hit $4.30, according to AAA. That's the highest since July 2022. Gas prices have shot up $1.40 since the war in Iran began. That's adding ~$70 extra a month to household costs. #gas #inflation...
UK Gilt Yields Drop Sharply on Oil, Yet Remain High
UK Gilts and Oil Pricea The "good news" for the UK today is that it's government bond market’s hypersensitivity (high beta) to oil prices is finally providing relief on the way down: As shown in the Bloomberg table below, the yield on...
Yen Surges to Strongest Level Since 2022 Amid Policy‑oil Coordination
Biggest yen jump since December 2022 as Japan "officials" and oil work together. https://t.co/RynfgKJbDD #forex #USDJPY $USO
German Monetarist Legacy Misguided ECB Policy Decisions
He also wrote the papers on how Germany "opted out" of the Great Inflation of the 1970s, which contributed to ECB policy mistakes in 2008, 2011 and [2026?]
US Becomes Top Crude Exporter, Overtaking Saudi Arabia
Clearly an anomaly that will end when the Strait of Hormuz re-opens. Still, noteworthy: tanker tracker @Petro_Logistics reckons the US was the world's largest crude oil exporter (note: crude) in April, overtaking leader Saudi Arabia (and ahead of Russia, the...
Venezuela's Bolivar Plummets 84%, Pushes Official Dollarization
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Venezuelan bolivar ranks as the WORLD'S WORST currency. The bolivar has depreciated by over 84% against the USD in the past year. VENEZUELA'S TOP PRIORITY = OFFICIAL DOLLARIZATION. https://t.co/vvYHB91ZKo
Questioning ECB’s Early Look at Q2 Forecasts
My question to @Lagarde would be: did the Governing Council have a first look at the Survey of Professional Forecasters for Q2? If so, how bad does it look? https://t.co/rvxtO93HNC
Hawkish Push Gains Party Backers, Warsh Not Isolated
The hawkish case is finding political backers from inside the president’s own party, meaning that declining to cut might not leave Warsh isolated within his own coalition. Sen. John Kennedy said inflation is “kind of like a tick.” “If you get a...
Yen Rebounds After Fed’s Hawkish Hold Interpretation
The Yen Recovers on Verbal Intervention: The North American market understood yesterday’s Fed statement and the three dissents in favor of a neutral bias as a hawkish hold and rallied the dollar in response. Follow-through selling today has been minimal…...
Majorities Say War Bonds Offer No Cost Advantage
Latest CfM-NIESR survey: "War bonds" would offer no cost advantage over standard government bonds. Some 76% of the UK panel and 71% of the EU panel disagreed with the proposition that “war bonds” would be a cheaper form of borrowing. https://t.co/USeBxw4ZRx
Iran Conflict May Revive Undervalued Commodities Vs. Overheated Stocks
Commodities Too Cold, Stocks Too Hot or Both? The Iran conflict may mark a worthy recovery catalyst for broad commodities from roughly a quarter-century low vs. US equities. Were commodities just too low at the end of 2025, or equity prices...
EU Parliament Approves New GSP, Effective 2027
On 28 April, the European Parliament voted in favour of the new Generalised Scheme of Preference (GSP). This will enter into application on 1 January 2027. GSP is the EU’s unilateral set of preferences for developing and least developed countries. /1 ...
Copper’s Gains Mirror S&P, Yet Lag Behind Trends
Highly Stock-Market Dependent Copper May Be a Guide Copper's increasing dependency for stability on a rising US stock market may underscore elevated risks across assets. My macroeconomic scorecard shows both copper and the S&P 500 up about 5% year to date...
Pill’s Issing Admiration Signals a Hawkish Turn
When Huw Pill said his central banking hero was Otmar Issing... that's when we knew...
Hawkish Fed and 5% Treasury Yield Halt Bitcoin Dip‑Buy
The trifecta finally hit in 18 hours. The Fed delivered what Cointelegraph called the "most hawkish FOMC in years" with four dissents. Brent tagged $125 overnight. And the US 30-year Treasury yield punched through 5% for the first time this...
Central Banks Must Stay Steady Amid War‑driven Turmoil
War shock tests central banks’ resolve Linda Yueh on why policymakers may hold their nerve as inflation rises, growth falters and uncertainty deepens https://t.co/VFosKL0tlX
Liquidity Dries up Exactly During Market Crises
The 2010 US equity market ‘flash crash’, the 2014 US Treasury turbulence, and the March 2020 pandemic sell-off in US Treasuries all share a disturbing pattern: liquidity vanished precisely when it was most urgently needed. https://t.co/qvntt9NSaH
Emerging Market Loans Default 3.5%, Recovery Beats Benchmarks
Global Emerging Markets Risk Database w over 3 decades of lending data from 29 multilateral development banks, documents average default rate of 3.54% for loans to private entities in emerging markets alongside recovery rates that exceed global benchmarks https://t.co/zT7IRupC9M
Oil Prices Swing $15 in 48 Hours, Threatening Economy
Crazy price volatility in the oil market: In less than 48 hours, Brent crude has swung from a local low of $111 to a high of $126 and is currently trading at around $116 (Bloomberg chart below). This level of instability is...
Yen Rebounds on Intervention as US Eyes Iran Strike
Ahead of ECB and BOE outcome, the yen is in the spotlight. It has reversed higher after heightened verbal intervention by Japanese officials. Meanwhile, the US is reportedly considering new military strikes on Iran. Oil extends gains but...
Flexible Supply Chains May Soften UK Price Impact
Economic effects of the US/Israeli conflict with Iran are emerging for UK consumers and businesses. However, flexible supply chains may cushion price https://t.co/MNmgP7YtEG
Japanese 10‑Year Yield Hits 2.52%, Echoing Global Rise
Japanese 10-year yields hit a new post-1997 high of 2.52%. Longer-term yields are rising globally in tandem with surging oil prices, especially as companies and governments demonstrate a will to keep spending. https://t.co/cL61POetPv
U.S. Interest Costs Overtake Defense Spending for First Time
The Death Spiral: America Now Spends More on Interest Than Defense Key Takeaways -U.S. interest payments surpassed defense spending in 2024 for the first time in nearly a century. -The gap is projected to widen significantly, with interest costs reaching $2.1 trillion...
Bank-Friendly Rates Boost BBVA Buyback; Buy on Weakness
Macro: rate backdrop supports banks. BBVA starts €1.46bn buyback (up to 429.6m) May–Aug; venue caps. Risk: liquidity distortion/suspension. Trading insight: buy on weakness. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Iran Tensions Push Oil Above $110, Market Volatility Spikes
🇮🇷 Iran Intel Brief | Pre-London ─────── U.S. oil prices surged above $110 per barrel amid potential military action against Iran. Iran maintains hardline stance on Strait of Hormuz control, increasing risk of extended blockade and oil supply disruptions. US Navy intercepted the 42nd...
China Eases Fuel Export Ban for Select Asian Buyers
Important development: China has given state-owned refiners the green light to export some gasoline, diesel and jet-fuel to a handful of regular customers (in Asia), signaling the country is effectively easing an earlier ban on shipments.
Consensus on “Transitory” Inflation Proved Disastrously Wrong
Yes he let inflation escape but the whole "transitory" thing was one of the biggest consensus views of all time, largely because of what had happened in the previous decade. Nobody could imagine inflation being a problem anymore...
Powell Hailed as Fed Hero for Taming Inflation
This is going to annoy people (sorry...) but Powell is gonna be remembered as a hero at the Fed. Got inflation back down, delivered a soft landing, and stood up to enormous political pressure. Probably leaving at just the right...
Downside Risks Loom for EZ Q1 GDP Amid Spanish Slowdown
Risks are shifting to the downside for the EZ Q1 GDP print today, especially if Spanish growth cools more than expected and Ireland mean-reverts further.
Rising Yields Safe Until Recession Hits Deficits
See lots of reference to higher gilt yields and the threat to public finances. As long as nominal GDP is purring at +5% it doesn't matter. But if you have a recession, and a nominal slowdown, with automatic stabilisers blowing...
BOJ Faces 3% Core
BOJ risk scenario: core CPI ~3% in 2026–27 as oil $105, yen -10%, stocks -20%. Macro: sustained above-target inflation. Risk: rising inflation expectations. Trade: short-duration JGBs (JPY-hedged). — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
North Korean Won Plummets 69%, World's 2nd Worst Currency
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the North Korean won ranks as the WORLD'S 2ND WORST CURRENCY. The won has depreciated by 69% against the USD over the past year. WESTERN MEDIA = CONTINUES TO FAIL TO COVER THE WORLD'S MOST UNDERREPORTED CURRENCY STORY....
Treasury Cracks Down: $500M Iran Crypto Seized, New Sanctions Loom
US Treasury Secretary Intensifies Iran Economic Pressure Treasury Secretary Bessent announces escalating economic pressure on Iran with potential secondary sanctions on Iranian oil buyers, describing urgent push toward resolution. US Treasury Seizes $500M Iran-Linked Cryptocurrency Treasury Secretary Bessent reports seizure of nearly half...
India Shifts to Venezuelan Crude, Reducing Iraqi Imports
🇮🇳🇮🇳🇮🇳 12 million barrels of Venezuelan crude are sailing to India on 6 supertankers. This should replace a good chunk of the Iraqi oil India used to import Map form @Kpler
Oil Surges to Wartime Highs as US Eyes Iran
Screaming Red Headline on Bloomberg *OIL HITS WARTIME HIGH ON REPORT US EYING IRAN MILITARY OPTIONS June Brent futures (green) have doubled since the beginning of the year December Brent Futures (blue) set a new all-time high. https://t.co/MdXjetPtqJ
US Hypersonic Missile Deployment Spikes Oil, Fuels Market Panic
🚨 BAD NEWS FOR STOCK MARKET 🚨 US has deployed hypersonic missiles to Middle East to use against Iran. Russian President Putin warned the US President Donald Trump about new military action in Iran. Crude Oil jumped to $109 over uncertainty of WAR.
Fed Chair's Era May End Amid Messier Meetings
Four dissents. An outgoing chair who isn't leaving. A new chair who wants "messier meetings." Since Greenspan began releasing FOMC statements in '94, reading the Fed meant reading the chair Wednesday raised the possibility that era is ending https://t.co/80GDuqZwql
Fed Split as Oil Spikes and Yields Rise
Oil at $110, blockade tightening, inflation expectations rising. Bond yields climbing. Yet the Fed just split down the middle on whether to cut or hold rates. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/yK33qZsRVh
Fed Independence Lost; Inflation Expectations Spike Amid Rate Dilemma
The Powell saga is a distraction. The Fed’s independence has been gone for a while. To be fair, what did people expect? Inflation is still elevated while debt service is already at unsustainable levels. You either crush the system with high rates, or...
Sudan's Pound Plummets, Ranks 4th Worst Globally
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Sudanese pound ranks as the WORLD'S 4TH WORST CURRENCY. The pound has depreciated over 37% against the USD in the past year. https://t.co/ECk4tFBGhH
Iranian Rial Plunges 11% Against USD in Two Days
In the past two days the Iranian rial has reversed course and TANKED. It has depreciated by a STUNNING 11% vs. the USD. https://t.co/o1qfzBl321