Uncertainty Delays Decisions, Dampening Economic Growth
Why do economists obsess over uncertainty? Because waiting is easy. If the news might clear soon, firms delay big irreversible decisions. Multiply that across the economy and growth softens. https://t.co/qHrOYGLij5
Taiwan: World's Most Perilous Chokepoint Threatening Global Stability
NEW ODD LOTS: Taiwan is the world's most perilous chokepoint @tracyalloway and I talk to @eyckfreymann, author of the new book 'Defending Taiwan: A Strategy to Prevent War with China, about the high stakes and high risk if China moves on Taiwan...
Blockade Squeezes Iran yet Fuels Its Resilience
The blockade squeezes Iran—and props it up at the same time. By lifting oil prices it also funds Iranian resilience and strains the global economy It’s a slow, leaky tool, not a decisive one. https://t.co/2HUjqpRXMj #OilMarkets #Hormuz #Geopolitics #EnergyCrisis #Sanctions
China's Q1 Gold Demand Hits Record 362 Tons
China's gold demand in Q1 just hit a RECORD HIGH of 362 tons. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/i4imHfn9jj
Japan Likely Intervened Heavily; Fed Remains Sole Cut Prospect
It is looking more likely that Japan did materially intervene yesterday and for a bit more than it did on average in 2024. Today's holiday has thinned activity. US leadership sought. Fed is still only major central bank where mkt...
Economic Fury Misses: No Shock, No Inflation, No Uprising
Bessent's Economic Fury has failed No sustained supply shock, no inflation surge, no public backlash. When the pressure doesn’t move prices, people, or politics, it’s not a strategy—it’s a miss. #OilMarkets #Geopolitics #EnergyCrisis #Inflation #Strategy
Japan's FX Interventions: Temporary Fixes Mask Denial
There's 2 problems with Japan's FX interventions. First, they're only a temporary fix and never reverse the falling trend of the Yen. Second, they signal a gov't that keeps repeating a failed strategy instead of doing what's right, i.e. they...
Blockade of Iran Mirrors Russia’s Shadow Fleet Failure
The alternative to the blockade is what we did on Russia and look where that got us. Russia built a shadow fleet, is exporting lots of oil and keeps waging terrible war in Ukraine. The blockade of Iran is recognition...
July Brent Front-Month Sets Path to Wartime High
BRENT’s futures contract for July has replaced June as the front-month, temporarily reducing headline oil prices, but the trend remains upward as the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz causes oil supplies to tighten. In a strongly backwardated market,...
West Braces for Next Wave of Oil Rationing
Headed into month three of the oil crisis, the energy rationing that hit Asia and Africa is headed West. JPMorgan's commodity desk put out an internal memo recently that made the rounds. The Strait of Hormuz closure removed 13.7 million barrels...
Powell’s Reactive Rate Moves Fueled Inflation, Hurt Jobs
I disagree with @mark_dow on his conclusion, even as I share his frustration with many critics. Powell was a terrible Fed Chair, but he was not responsible for the Covid inflation. He was responsible for an entirely REACTIVE Fed policy that...
US Munitions Depend on China’s Rare‑earth Magnet Supply
My take @FortuneMagazine on China’s control over the replacement of US depleted weapons stockpile: "Replenishing these [US] munitions requires 5-10 metric tons of finished defense-grade rare earth magnets, more than 95% of which must come from China." https://t.co/M437EG5SfV
Europe's Mispriced US Security Model Demands New Solidarity
MUST READ VoxEU Column from Marco Buti Giancarlo Corsetti Anna Peychev 👇 TLDR: Europe has significantly mispriced the value generated by American Security umbrella and created an economic model that simply doesn't finance itself on strategic autonomy grounds. They refer...
Chinese Banks Post Q1 Profit Rebound on Steadier Margins
1/9 Caixin: "China’s major state-owned and joint-stock commercial banks showed a broad rebound in revenue and profit in the first quarter of 2026, driven by stabilizing net interest margins as funding costs improved." https://t.co/eF2k1cx4c9
No One Expected Greenspan’s Rate Hikes to Lead to Jail
Of course, back then, nobody was going to put Greenspan in JAIL for raising rates 🤣
Free‑Market Reforms Spark Vietnam’s Exceptional Economic Boom
Thanks to free market reforms, the Vietnamese economy has BOOMED. VIETNAM = GROWTH EXCEPTIONALISM. https://t.co/K5IE3TS4jY
IMF Must Strip Tax‑Avoidance Distortions From Its Data
The IMF really needs to learn how to adjust its numbers to take out the distortions from tax avoidance (i would recommend some TA from Irelands own sttat office) https://t.co/i9z6sT14fo
EU Steel Demand Threatened by Early CBAM Import Advantage
EU steel demand faces CBAM timing risk as downstream imports may gain cost advantage before 2028. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/05/eu-steel-demand-faces-cbam-risk-before.html
China's De-Dollarization Is Just a Reserve Shift
1/4 Brad Setser explains why China didn’t truly de-dollarize—it just shifted its dollar holdings from official reserves at SAFE to less transparent state entities like banks and investment funds. @Brad_Setser https://t.co/xz6NMW6HWT
War Drags Emerging Economies, Growth Forecast Cut to 3.6%
In January, the World Bank projected 2026 emerging economy growth at 4.0%. Thanks to the US-Israeli war on Iran, the World Bank has now REDUCED its projection for 2026 emerging economy growth to 3.6%. WAR = SLOW GROWTH. https://t.co/8gCFXCShzT
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He Lifeng Holds Video Call with U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessenter and Trade Representative Greer State Council Orders 834, 835 clearly came up. VP He likely brought up Hua Hong.... https://t.co/oybTjvkyV2 https://t.co/GlnLDGIg8i
Realizing the Strait of Hormuz's Strategic Importance
Thinking back to a few months ago when you had either never heard of or thought about the Strait of Hormuz in decades https://t.co/W8AMqVrYUw
US, China Economic Chiefs Air Grievances Before Trump‑Xi Summit
China, US economic chiefs raise complaints in 'candid' call ahead of Trump-Xi summit - https://t.co/6dolrnOyj0
Ending Tariffs Seems Ill‑timed Amid Bourbon Boycott
As a rule, I support the end of all tariffs, but this is a rather strange thing to do right as the Kentucky bourbon and Tennessee whiskey industries are getting devastated by international retaliatory boycotts.
Dollaryuan Market Emerges as Key Global Currency Shift
There are lots of moving parts at the moment. But a key one involves the possible formation of a dollaryuan market (or will it be called a yuandollar market? Yet to be determined). https://t.co/NuEwX8HNB6
Apple Will Reinvest Tariff Rebate Into U.S. Manufacturing
Tim Cook: If Apple gets a tariff rebate, we are going to take the cash and add it to our U.S. manufacturing initiative.
Powell Earns C+ for Mishandling Transitory Inflation
My final grade for Jerome Powell: C+ He was generally a fine Fed Chairman. But the "transitory" thing has to ding his grade substantially. Yes, easy to say in hindsight, but the Fed failed to be sufficiently countercyclical during the largest...
Core Services Inflation Surges to 3.7%, Beyond Energy
Inflation in the Entire US economy Is Rocking and Rolling, and It’s Not Just Energy. The 6-month core services PCE inflation index, accelerating since August, hit 3.7% annualized. Chip prices and software wreak havoc amid consumer electronics https://t.co/tJlBtm0nLC https://t.co/BYiIsiCep8
Politicized Monetary Policy Costs Jobs, Prices, Stability
For families and firms, this isn’t academic. If the people steering monetary policy are chosen for cable-news combat rather than analytic clarity, the cost shows up in jobs, prices, and uncertainty. https://t.co/ofgo8OR3dX
Most Tariff Refunds Won’t Reach Consumers or Small Businesses
My latest for @thedispatch examines the $166B in tariff refunds the US is processing - and who will win or lose. Spoiler: it's not terrible, but it's not great, especially for consumers, small biz, & taxpayers. "You (Probably) Won’t Get a...
Global Rate Divergence Poised to Push Dollar Lower
We are in a new era of global central bank policy divergence. The rest of the world appears to have significantly more room to tighten financial conditions than the US. That divergence is likely to act as a major driver of further...
America’s Data Centers Still Rely on Foreign Imports
A rather aggressive way of framing the fact that the US still heavily relies on imports for building out data centers -- and that a surge in investment demand for advanced manufactures largely flows to the rest of the world
U.S. Turns Net Crude Exporter Amid Overseas Surge
The surge in US crude oil overseas sales means the country was last week a net exporter of crude. (In the past, the US exported more crude oil *AND* refined products — combined — than it imported. But now it's an...
Second Global Energy Crisis Sparks EU Import Push, Criticisms
We are once again facing a substantial energy crisis in the world, which is the second in just a few years. And it increasingly seems that everyone is looking out for themselves geopolitically in the current environment. Meanwhile, the EU...
India Invests $5.4bn to Expand Fleet Amid Hormuz Risks
India unveils $5.4bn national fleet expansion amid rising Hormuz risks ▶️Investment to support 62 newbuildings spanning several vessel types ▶️Enhanced national fleet will boost India’s growing maritime presence as trade and port handling figures rise ▶️Safety of seafarers in the Hormuz remains crucial...
Empty Tankers Help Iran Outlast U.S. Blockade
Empty Tankers Are Extending Iran's Ability to Wait Out the U.S. Blockade https://t.co/igbWrJPUVA #maritime #maritime-news
China's Extraterritorial Rules Undermine Global Supply Chains
Bessent to China: I stressed that China's recent provocative extraterritorial regulations have a chilling effect on global supply chains. Mark Twain: Nothing needs reforming as other people's habits. The hypocrisy is on par with PRC's criticism of the "Made in...
US Sanctions Ex‑DRC Leader over M23 Mineral Ties
The USA has sanctioned former Congolese President Kabila for supporting M23 In case you were still wondering if the US cares about the stable reliable safe flow of minerals in the eastern DRC https://t.co/3AeoZtMMfe
Houthis' Galaxy Leader Seizure Cuts 25% Ship Traffic
Remember November 19, 2023 when the Houthis seized the MV Galaxy Leader in a helicopter assault that triggered the decline in global shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb. We are still seeing the diversion of 25% of ships from the...
UK Whiskey Tariff Likely Violates Section 122 Rules
Two quick things: 1) We had free trade in whiskey/whisky before... 2025 2) Pretty sure this UK tariff is now under Section 122, which is supposedly needed for a "balance of payments" crisis and definitely wouldn't allow for this kind of carveout.
Fitch: U.S. Debt Levels Exceed Peer AA Nations
"Fitch Warns US Debt Burden Is ‘Far Above’ Other AA Rated Nations" None of us own enough hard assets. https://t.co/bA3E6txTHG https://t.co/jfpiadGKWT
US-China Trade Update: Imports, Exports, and Fentanyl Trends
Are you in the Washington, DC area on May 6, 2026, from 9:00–10:15 AM? Then JOIN US in person @PIIE for... “US-China Trade Update: Imports, Exports, Fentanyl Flows, and Beyond" ⚠️Warning. There will be charts. 📈📉📊 *REGISTER* for the in-person event here: https://t.co/y32DpPY3wJ
S&P 500 Surges Past All-Time High Despite Energy Crisis
The S&P 500 shrugs off global energy crisis and hits a new all-time high https://t.co/VUKIJmA8mW
US Growth Rebounds, Inflation Resurges; Iran Uncertainty Looms
Came into this year saying US growth would reaccelerate and inflation would become an issue again. Seems pretty clear that was right.... now we just need some clarity on this Iran situation to understand if the first part is still...
China's Yuan Strengthens as Petrodollar Talk Dominates
There has been too much talk of petrodollars. And not enough talk of Chinese dollars China isn't really de-dollarizing. Rather the contrary. A new blog 1/ https://t.co/6NT3Onlp9U
Treasury's Hidden QE Fuels Reckless Economic Overheating
Policymakers are running the economy so unbelievably hot right now that I am starting to think it has approached or surpassed recklessness. The Treasury has completely taken over control of the money supply and financial conditions with their ongoing ATI/YCC...
Trump’s Horm
Will Trump’s Iran war and Strait of Hormuz blunder have its place not only in US history but global too? What about in maritime and supply chain?
Private‑sector Wage Growth Eases to 3.2% in Q1
Private-sector pay growth decelerated ever so slightly in Q1 when looking at wages and salaries for private sector workers ex-incentive paid occupations. It was +3.2% in Q1 from a year earlier, vs 3.4% in Q4 and +3.6% in the same quarter...
Cuban Peso Falls 30%, Still 5th Worst Globally
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Cuban peso ranks as the WORLD'S 5TH WORST CURRENCY. The peso has depreciated by 30% against the USD in the past year. Given the US sanctions and blockade on Cuba, it’s surprising that the peso has done as...
Models Predicted Higher Inflation, No Cuts Pre‑War
We've positioned our models for a world with a little higher inflation and probably no cuts. We were saying this even before the war started. This chart from @sam_gatlin is quite interesting.