Global Economy Social Media and Updates
Global Economy Social Media and Updates
Global Economy Pulse
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Tuesday recap
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
Reuters: "China is considering easing shareholding restrictions for some major investors, people with knowledge of the matter said, in a move aimed at broadening capital-raising options for commercial banks reeling from an economic slowdown." https://t.co/HCdl6eFRCX
YARDENI RESEARCH CHART OF THE DAY (March 26, 2026) We've been betting on the productivity-led Roaring 2020s. That's still our 60% base case. So far, this scenario has been on the money. However, the war has increased the risks of a...
Ringgit seeing weakness the last few days. It’s now: • 4.00 against USD • 3.12 against SGD Since the US war began, ringgit has weakened against Yuan, Yen, GBP, EUR. Could it be investors becoming a bit concerned about rising fuel subsidy bill?
Headlines & tweets about talks & deals are NOISE at this point THE SIGNAL is rationing, price spikes, policy interventions, & rising stress in import-dependent economies We're in the early stage of CONTAGION This time it's not a novel virus It's a heart attack...
Aw gee Marco. Tariff Europe some more. Maybe that will help. Or better yet side up even more with Putin.
The AI economy looks...really precarious. So @matteowong1 & I did a bunch of reporting to try to figure out what happens when a potential bubble collides with a war in Iran and a potential resource shortage. The answer is...arguably the...
Time is irreversible damage Trump has kicked the can till April 6 11 more days of disruption = 120MM additional barrels shut in ==>cumulative losses ~400MM, notes @ericnuttall That’s how a “temporary” disruption becomes a lasting supply shock. #Oil #Hormuz #SupplyShock #EnergyCrisis #Inventories...
The important thing is that Trump is out of attractive options. Hormuz has to open, or the global economy dies. Iran won’t negotiate and ground wars are messy. Given the size and population of Iran, we likely need a force...
Bab al-Mandeb is now in play Another chokepoint, another layer of disrupt Iran doesn’t need to win militarily. It just needs to expand the number of places it can break the system. https://t.co/k876kDiu36 #Hormuz #BabAlMandeb #Oil #Shipping #Geopolitics #EnergyCrisis #RedSea #Suez #Iran #OOTT
The ECB spent two years cutting rates to revive growth. Now energy shocks are forcing them to hike into a slowdown. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/ZKgiJs3tbu
I asked Sec. Rubio planeside if the Strait of Hormuz can be reopened without US boots on the ground. He said it's a Dept. of War question, but "It can be open tomorrow if #Iran stops threatening global shipping, which is...
ING expects tight copper and aluminium supply to support prices into 2026 amid tariffs, weak mine output, and power constraints. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/tight-copper-and-aluminium-supply-keeps.html
Today's policy speeches from Jefferson and Barr continue to push the Fedlock hawkishness measure even higher. https://t.co/PYi7b3edxv
The Chicago Fed Real-Time Unemployment Rate Forecast for March is 4.46%, up slightly from the BLS value for the previous month. https://t.co/fmDwn7KNXM https://t.co/DQnoKpB7NE
NEW: Vladimir Putin has asked oligarchs to donate to Russia’s budget in a bid to stabilise the country’s finances as he presses on with his invasion of Ukraine. The comments made it clear Putin won't back down despite strains on...
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has left 25% of US farmers UNABLE to secure fertilizer for the upcoming planting season. US FARMERS SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR DAMAGES TO TRUMP AND NETANYAHU. https://t.co/IGb9NjwDiw
There is a macro arb here... The prediction market for 'US forces enter Iran by April 30th' (59%) and 'US-Iran Cease Fire by April 30th' (47%).. https://t.co/W305cB56pm
mexico just cut rates 25bps (split 3-2 vote) some DM central banks already getting outclassed by an EM
Depressing. UK GDP per capita has been flat for two decades. Without growth, the welfare state is on borrowed time. We need to shrink the state and unleash enterprise. https://t.co/uatuXQg13e
four weeks in, iran continues to export oil through the strait of hormuz. 1.5 million barrels a day, at significantly higher prices than before the war.
Not a day to stay on the sidelines. Aside from gold: I welcome this pullback in Latin American stocks. Looks like a correction within the early innings of a structural bull market in emerging markets. https://t.co/PqNvdOT6AB https://t.co/nL6e7JkoCR
Larry Fink, chairman and CEO of BlackRock, is urging policymakers to consider using America’s flagship safety-net program like a giant brokerage account — using borrowed money. https://t.co/cSg0rDZCTu
Potash and phosphate-based fertilizers remain mostly unaffected, but nitrogen-based fertilizers that rely on natural gas are the problem. Global urea and ammonia supplies are already being hit hard. #fertilizer #foodsupply #geopolitics https://t.co/LaLbS7VyH1
Logan Mohtashami on the economics of war and its effect on housing https://t.co/23QO1ifkKU via @YouTube
FWIW - There's a noticeable difference in search trends today versus 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine. While inflation searches are comparably elevating, there's nowhere near the concern about an economic slowdown today as there was then. https://t.co/QkWqRG0gXo
Oil shocks don’t just drive up inflation. They also increase unemployment. In the context of an already weak labor market, GS estimates the Iran oil shock will increase the unemployment rate by 20-40 basis points by the end of the year. Source:...
The US Labor Market Confounds with its Countercurrents. It May Be the New Normal Labor Market. The Fed has also struggled in dealing with this labor market https://t.co/5TJNIc4U16 https://t.co/JLm2HmsMRX
The US has been toying with the idea of a US oil export ban. This might briefly lower gasoline prices in the US, but it would drive up diesel and jet fuel costs and worsen the overall energy shock. ANOTHER HAIRBRAIN IDEA...
Bank of England rate-setters doubt that the Iran war will trigger a UK price spiral https://t.co/7RIt9Lei1J via @irinaanghel12 @KowalczeKamil @tomelleryrees https://t.co/nWmHGMb2Qb
The dollar is below 100 on the index, down nearly 5% over twelve months. Textbook says this boosts emerging markets. But emerging market ETFs are down sharply. The Kospi just fell 3% in a session. That correlation isn't working. Why? US Treasury...
A wry aside (inspired by @stanveuger): Implementing unconstitutional tariffs ensures you get all of the distortions and costs of tariffs, and (assuming refunds are required) none of the revenue. Lose lose.
With Brent crude around $109, following the decision to release 400 million barrels from the SPR, along with waivers for Russian, Iranian, and Venezuelan oil entering the market, the path is clear: The longer the war drags on, the higher...
The maker of Sharpie - praised by Trump & other US protectionists - says its "investments in production in Tennessee rely on imported equipment, and the company worries that higher tariffs on those machines could make reshoring and local production...
Airlines are being hit HARD in Asia by the war in Iran. Both KLM and Air France have added SURCHARGES on long-haul flights while airlines cancel HUNDREDS of other flights. KLM & AF SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR DAMAGES TO TRUMP...
In an attempt to ANNEX southern Lebanon, Israel is now setting up fortifications & creating a so-called “buffer zone” between Israel & Lebanon. Israel is already ILLEGALLY occupying about 8% of Lebanon’s territory. https://t.co/9FEQdXkvKH
Goldman Sachs downgrades India to Market Weight and lowers NIFTY target to 25,900 from 29,300.
Be careful not to confuse changes in valuation and changes in custodial patterns (after Russia's reserves were immobilized) with actual sales https://t.co/zTGz75N9rr
Unemployment rate rising Geopolitical conflicts rising Price of oil rising Inflation rising Airport travel collapsing Bitcoin dropping Stocks dropping All business cycles must come to an end, and it usually ends with a recession.
As long as Hormuz stays closed (which is highly likely near term), 10y UST yields will likely keep rising until either Fed or Treasury are forced to inject USD liquidity (into an oil spike & increasingly fracturing global supply chains)...
Iran shepherds friendly bulkers through Hormuz ▶️Evidence the Islamic Republic is allowing its own trade through the Strait of Hormuz ▶️Increase in westbound transits after weeks-long lull ▶️Other bulkers that have waited in the Arabian Sea are now on the move towards the...
The ill-conceived US-Israeli war against Iran will go down in history as one of the great supply shocks. Surprisingly, it hasn’t been fully priced into the market yet. https://t.co/0P6D68qJi7
Macro: UK100 -1.29% as Financials & Mining lead. Key: 3i to 52‑wk low; gold -3.5%, Brent +4.9%, USD firmer. Risk: commodity shock, sector contagion. Trade: trim cyclicals. Expect consolidation. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Of note: Up 7 basis points so far today, the yield on the US 10-year government bond is currently trading above 4.40%. #economy #markets #bonds
𝗪𝗮𝗿, 𝗢𝗶𝗹, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗠𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝘆 𝗥𝗮𝗻𝗱 🇿🇦 The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) just mapped out two possible futures for South Africa's economy. 𝗦𝗰𝗲𝗻𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗼 𝟭: 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗦𝗵𝗼𝗿𝘁 𝗦𝗵𝗼𝗰𝗸 If the conflict ends within 2 months, oil averages just under $100/barrel, and the...
My view in the @EpochTimes on Pres. Trump's move on Venezuelan oil: “VEN remains a wild card... its output gains will likely be modest [in 2026], ~300,000 barrels/day, due to deep structural damage in the soft & hard infrastructure of VEN’s...
10-year yield was sub 4% at the start of the war. Now it's over 4.4%. Worst month for $TLT since December 2024 https://t.co/OmX97S6MQ1
Just 130 ships have transited the Strait of Hormuz since the war began—barely a day’s worth of traffic under normal conditions. Nearly all have sailed for Asia, with none heading to Europe or the United States. H/T @_MartinKelly_
“The oil market is well-supplied” — US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. (… that’s quite a statement after the International Energy Agency had to make the largest ever use of his member’s strategic petroleum reserves…)
Japan imports 94% of its crude from the Middle East. 70% moves through the Strait of Hormuz. When oil spikes, Japan sells Treasuries to defend the yen. When Japan sells Treasuries, yields spike. When yields spike, everything breaks. Watch USD/JPY. $TLT $SPY https://t.co/8Vd43Ls5lB
The Iran War could end today and the shock would still unfold. The only questions are how big and for how long the shock will last.
