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EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
Germany just refused to join the Hormuz escort coalition. "We lack the mandate." $100+ oil isn't a blip. It's a policy choice the West keeps making by not making one. $WTI https://t.co/hftmXwpdXG
Kate Mackenzie and Tim Sahay at Phenomenal World posted this nice map of the global LNG market. It's featured in today's Chartbook Top Links: https://t.co/hQaQMt4GjH
"While markets previously anticipated a cut as early as this July and two more by next spring, the current trajectory has moved aggressively, with a full cut now not priced in until March 2027." -S&P Global Vörös
In the two oil shocks of the 70's the Fed tightened due to the broad inflationary impact of leaving the gold standard and Bretton woods. Oil was a symptom not a cause of inflation In 90 the Fed paused cuts...
China's fuel export ban last week is already rippling through the region. Bangladesh, which relies on Chinese diesel and jet fuel, has come out and asked Beijing to honour its contracts. Australia imported a third of its jet fuel from China...
Trump Shifts U.S.-China Strategy on Trade to Dealmaking—Plus, President Trump has asked Beijing to delay his summit with Xi and some have signaled renewed openness to bilateral investment @Lingling_Wei https://t.co/XagDzu9g7G https://t.co/XagDzu9g7G
Pakistan’s LNG supply at risk of running out in less than a month 🇵🇰 🚢 Officials warn that there may not be enough gas to meet power needs after April 14 Pakistan imports 99% of its LNG from Qatar. But supplies...
“When a hegemon abandons the legitimating ideas that built its empire and operates on naked power alone, it has already begun to fall.” @Noneotherthanwe
"Minnesota corn farmers withstood a trade war. The war in Iran is the next cost challenge. The conflict is increasing the cost of an essential fertilizer. With corn prices already down, it’s another financial headache for farmers." https://t.co/NT2pX8mfN9
Should the Fed hike due to a supply shock in oil? No. Should the Fed cut due to oil supply shock causing weaker real growth. Also no. Get a grip pundits.
“Trump has asked to postpone the scheduled summit with China’s President Xi. The delay is unlikely to be too economically significant. Trade talks are continuing, and China’s export numbers remain robust. A trade deal would reduce the tariff burden on...
Sweden has seized its first shadow fleet vessel. They even went after a bulk carrier rather than a tanker. As more countries join in on the crackdown on Russia's shadow fleet, the dominoes are beginning to fall. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/pUmv12pCMy
So Iran has basically set up VIP access (or a separate customs checkpoint, if you prefer) for friendly vessels, per JPM “In practice, this creates a system in which the Strait is not formally closed, yet transit increasingly depends on political...
3 Developments: RBA hike, and mkt favors another one by mid-year. Trump-Xi meeting postponed by at least a month. Reason? War. Beijing tightens exports of fertilizer components. Oil firm but in yesterday's range. USD quiet. See https://t.co/QYsOxDPAlE...
"...geopolitics & inflation replace AI bubble as biggest tail risks." - BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
Rising U.S. private credit defaults hit record 9.2% in 2025, signaling credit stress & shadow banking risks. This erodes confidence in paper assets, investors flock to hard money with no counterparty risk. Bullish for gold & silver as safe-haven hedges. https://t.co/TcCYRkMkIZ
I think the most dangerous thing that I see in markets currently is this assumption that, as soon as the war ends, commodity production will just switch back on again. It won’t. It can’t. Commodity production is not like a manufacturing...
Have developed world interest rates hit their nadir - courtesy of energy prices? Perhaps one point of key implication is the possible pivot is the gold. Already eschewing its safe haven roots, a turn higher in real rates will be...
The headlines around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz are flipping daily, which is keeping #oil volatility (realized and implied) elevated. Meanwhile, the Brent-WTI spread has jumped back near its highest in 3 years. https://t.co/h3S81SQWjn
The divergence between the performance of China’s economy and its stock market has been a topic for decades. This may finally explain it. https://t.co/Kuo5CiNr8e https://t.co/6CgHtlepQL
AI is quickly becoming geopolitical infrastructure. An Nvidia-backed startup plans to spend billions on a data center in South Korea, as the U.S. increasingly uses AI chips and models to strengthen alliances and counter China. The AI race is no longer just...
As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hiked interest rates by 25 basis points. Markets suspect this telegraphs what's on the cards for other single-mandate central banks, such as the Bank of England and the ECB. While a hike isn't...
The RBA hiked its benchmark rate to 4.1%. That is the first major central bank this week of a long list. If you want to pit it against the most prominent carry counterpart and contrast against rate of change, it...
All talk, no action from other central banks this week, except for the RBA which hiked rates to 4.10%, the highest among DM central banks. https://t.co/JKCGcBPwIG
Iran war chokepoints begin to cast doubt on global chip supply https://t.co/oHuurB7rl9 via @debbywuintaipei @ckyrious https://t.co/EFKkB6ppV0
I write for the @Telegraph on the military challenges in re-opening the Strait of Hormuz. BLUF: the threat to shipping can be reduced but eliminating it is very resource intensive and can only be made permanent through politics: https://t.co/N9pN5Z9XmD
The US drops Section 301 trade bombshell on 16 countries | Article | Hinrich Foundation https://t.co/d4DGMQE6Zp
Rising cost of fuel already an interest‑rate rise on households and businesses Higher Aus interest rates don’t fix inflation from rising oil prices, nor tax oil companies gaining a windfall. Who in Aus pays the price? Those who can least afford it https://t.co/6qbQujyqgg
Crude oil prices ticked down after Iran said the Strait of Hormuz is open to all but its "enemies", lifting stocks and pulling down the US dollar. Is the crisis ending? #oil #IranWar #stocks #dollar #macro #trading https://t.co/1OST27OxI9
I was in Hong Kong in Feb 2020 and remember this being a very weird time. Investors had been worrying about the US-China trade war under Trump 1.0. Then China effectively shut down most of its economy and markets basically...
India- and Pakistan-owned ships transit Strait of Hormuz ▶️Iranian-linked tonnage still dominates Hormuz transits ▶️Attacks on shipping are succeeding in halting crossings ▶️Eastbound transits prevail westbound journeys ▶️US ‘fine’ with Iranian tankers sailing through Hormuz to ‘supply’ the rest of the...
China-linked Hormuz transits retreat to shipping’s opaque fringes ▶️China-linked traffic through Hormuz has slowed sharply after recent attacks, with transits largely confined to an opaque bulker and one sanctioned VLCC ▶️Mainstream Chinese state-owned tanker fleets continue to stay out, citing safety, insurance...
If a meaningful fraction of the analyses I’m seeing on major supply disruptions to global energy, food and pharmaceutical inputs is real, the humanitarian crises and government responses that are about to unfold will make COVID mayhem feel quaint.
The S&P 500 dropped only 5% during a Middle East war that shut down oil transit routes. A 10-15% correction was expected. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/7hi7kivw1h
FOMC is the biggest event this week. Interest rate decisions and Fed commentary can shift market direction, volatility, and momentum across Nasdaq and gold. Price often reacts aggressively around these releases, especially near key supply and demand levels. If you’re trading this week,...
The Fed might prefer to say nothing this week. But the projections force them to sketch out a path. Two former Fed presidents told me they'd want to avoid projecting near-term cuts in the current situation. Whether sitting officials do...
Drone strikes fuel truck at Dubai airport. What is happening is more than the Strait of Hormuz and oil. Supply and supply chains. A key product not moving is fertilizer as planting season is arriving. The impact on crop output...
Market Update with Landy: Macro Monday 03/16/2026 Brought to you by @davidgokhshtein @gokhshtein and hosted by @CryptoLandy. https://t.co/hUnE1k6tKY
UN Shipping Agency Says 3,200 Ships Trapped West of Hormuz as Emergency Council Meeting Called https://t.co/JURA89iBEy
US allies in Europe and Asia are in no hurry to bow to Trump's demand in helping reopen the Strait of Hormuz. TRUMP = A MASTERCLASS IN MAKING ENEMIES, EVEN WITH FOREIGN ENEMIES. https://t.co/er5H0ym7dv
Here’s why high oil prices are hitting places like the Philippines a lot harder than others (net energy importer, deregulated, very weak currency, relatively low income) 🔉on https://t.co/qMgihHYgGD
I am normally not a big fan of conspiracy theories to explain market phenomena. But #Brent futures slid from an intraday high of just over $106 to settle at $100.21 on Monday. The only “explanation” I can find is “because some...
The Yen has fallen below its previous low from mid-2024. This even though we're within two months of the NY Fed "rate check," which temporarily lifted it. As long as Japan believes in FX intervention, it's in denial on debt...
Trump Says U.S. Has Asked to Delay Summit With China’s Xi—President Trump said the U.S. had asked to delay a summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping that had been expected to begin later this month in Beijing. @KThomasDC https://t.co/RIlqe39hUE
If Iran wins, it's the end of five eras. 1991-2026: the unipolar era 1974-2026: the petrodollar era 1945-2026: the postwar era 1776-2026: the union era 1492-2026: the Western era Specifically, the end of the petrodollar (1974) would also be the end of the unipolar moment (1991)...
Disposable personal income is rising. Oil price is rising. Budget deficits are rising. Going to be very hard to cut rates
Lots of attention on the GCC - but as drones hit the Majnoon field, what does the war mean for Iraq? A very dangerous time ahead https://t.co/nO2Yr3HQde @ColumbiaUEnergy
The most important chart right now. Note that this only tracks ships with their AIS (Automated Identification System) turned on, think the GPS on your phone or in your car. More ships are going through, but they turn off their AIS. But once...
My view of Trump's grasp of reality: "Trump foolishly thought he was going to easily put out a little brush fire in Iran. Instead, he poked a stick into a hornet's nest. It's fueled a raging inferno that's generating massive collateral...
The link to this afternoon’s conversation with Christiane Amanpour. Thanks so much, Christiane, for having me on your show. https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/16/tv/video/amanpour-el-erian-trump-iran-hormuz-economy #economy @cnn #middleeastwar #oil #inflation #growth @pbs @camanpour
