Warsh Defends Fed Independence, Calls Inflation a Choice
Warsh is set to tell lawmakers on Tuesday that the Fed's independence in setting rates is "essential" but that policy decisions related to bank regulation and "public monies" should not be given the same deference. He will also argue that "inflation is a choice" and that price stability should be pursued "without excuse or equivocation"
Bond Yields Stagnate Amid War Costs and Supply Surge
Despite the war's fiscal costs, increased Treasury supply, and surging energy prices, bond yields are barely moving higher. We are either in denial, overly optimistic, or labor is much worse than we think. I guess be happy if you need...
ECB Holds Off April Rate Hike Amid Uncertainty
🇪🇺ECB unlikely to hike in April. @Lagarde: « This double uncertainty about the duration of the shock and the breadth of pass-through argues for gathering more information before drawing firm conclusions for our monetary policy. » https://t.co/nkISsCK5gz
Warsh: Fed Independence Rests with Itself, Inflation Its Duty
Kevin Warsh is set to tell the Senate at his hearing Tuesday that "Fed independence is largely up to the Fed" and that inflation is the Fed's responsibility "without excuse or equivocation" https://t.co/tzi2zEeXj8
Iraq’s SOMO Secures Modest Oil Trucking Contracts
Iraq trucking oil to market. "SOMO awarded contracts to supply about 650,000 metric tons of fuel oil per month from April to June to be trucked overland via Syria." Still modest flows, though—that's only ~150-160 kbpd vs ~3,600 kbpd of pre-war Gulf...
U.S. Experiencing Hidden Surge in Manufacturing Output
America Is in the Middle of a Stealth Manufacturing Boom, as shown in this visual from the WSJ. More featured on today's Chartbook Top Links in the comment below. https://t.co/RLtkQKVSdm
Fed Stuck Between Rate Hike and Cut Amid Global Strain
Debate within the Fed about whether its next move is up or down intensifying. Fed is in an uncomfortabke holding pattern on rates. Its inflation-fighting credibiity is eroding. War distributions creating COVID like supply chain problems - emerging Asia hit...
War Premium Mispriced Both Ways, Market Clings to Wrong Script
The war premium trade is mispriced in BOTH directions. US seized an Iranian ship Sunday night. Ceasefire expires tomorrow. WTI jumped 5.5% to $88. And yet defense stocks are RED today — LMT -1.3%, RTX -0.3%, NOC -0.8%. The market is still...
IEA and Nigeria Strengthen Ties Amid Global Energy Crisis
Excellent meeting with Nigerian Minister Ekperikpe Ekpo We discussed the international energy crisis & I thanked him for Nigeria's exports of jet fuel to markets facing difficult times & efforts to supply more. We also agreed to take a new step...
UAE's US Backstop Request Reveals Hidden War Fallout
The WSJ reports that the UAE has requested a US financial backstop. As a former member of the UAE's Financial Advisory Council (2008–14), it’s clear to me that the UAE’s request signals that the collateral damage from the US-Israeli war on...
Canadian Inflation Cools, Yet BoC Likely Cuts Twice
Canadian inflation cooler than expected. Growth picture remains ugly. i continue to think the BoC will cut ~twice this year, despite expectations for hikes. https://t.co/OrvZgNfD90
Trump May Extend Hormuz Ceasefire Despite Tehran Advantage
Possible Trump realizes that a drawn out ceasefire in which Hormuz remains closed only serves to bolster Tehran's leverage in peace deal negotiations. Or, more likely, this means nothing and he'll absolutely extend it if/when the ceasefire ends before a more...
CUSMA Dissolution Set for July, Threatens Ontario Jobs
Let's Get Clear On This: As It Stands Today CUSMA Will Begin Its 1 - Year Dissolution Process In July This will cause more unemployment in Canada (Mainly Ontario's) Manufacturing Sector The highest probability is Canadian Governments have totally screwed this up In...
Real GDP Still Near 3% Amid Policy Risks
Jake Oubina (Piper Economics)returns to discuss the macro outlook. Despite geopolitics, oil, and sentiment shifts, he sticks with ~3% real GDP. We hit tariffs, immigration, and policy risks—and why the backdrop may be more resilient than consensus. https://t.co/e9bJuqjgRy
Trump’s Tariffs and Iran War Cripple Non‑China Manufacturers
Trump's foreign policy (tariffs and Iran war) could not have landed at a worse time for industries outside China. Those factories were already facing cheap Chinese goods (because of weak yuan and domestic subsidies), then Trump raised tariffs and energy prices....
Warsh Hearing Could Shift USTs Amid Iran War
Iran war continues to dominate price action in USTs but Warsh's confirmation hearing tomorrow will likely interrupt the current narrative for a spell especially if he sticks to his recent rate dovishness and balance sheet hawkishness.
Tuesday's Triple Threat Sparks Market Volatility
This is the market right now 🤯 Ceasefire expires Tuesday. US-Iran meeting Tuesday. US Retail Sales Tuesday. Expect volatility $SPX $SPY $QQQ $DJI $CL $USO $XLE $GC $GLD $DXY
Hormuz Strait Unreliable, Threatening 20% Global LNG Supply
IEA'S BIROL: HORMUZ STRAIT LOST ITS STATUS AS RELIABLE About 20% of global LNG supply is locked behind the strait
US‑China Stockpiling Fuels Copper Price Surge
The entire copper industry has just returned from last week’s leading copper conference in Chile (CESCO), with participants, including the world’s largest copper traders, even more bullish that all-time-high copper prices could be tested over the coming weeks. It’s become...
Unending Iran War Could Stall Global Growth to Zero
My take on what would happen to world economic growth if the Iran war continues unabated @MarioNawfal: "My guess is that world growth would sink from the IMF projected 3.1%/yr to pretty close to zero, maybe even negative." FOREVER WARS = FROM...
Populist Pro‑Tariff Rhetoric Fails Against Manufacturing Economics
"These [pro-tariff] arguments carry populist appeal, but they falter when confronted with the economics of manufacturing and the realities of global supply chains."
Wall Street Remains Calm Amid Iran Naval Blockade
The U.S. Navy is actively blockading Iranian ports. The $VIX is at 17.21. The $SPY is at all-time highs. Either Wall Street has priced in the geopolitical risk perfectly — or this is the most complacent market since 2007. History rarely rewards this level...
China Weaponizes Rare‑earth Magnets Amid US‑Japan Tensions
China. Reduces rare earth magnet exports to US and Japan. Why? A topic for Xi-Trump meeting. Counter oil supply drop from Iran? What else may China do?
Egypt, India Keep Floating Currencies to Shield Against Oil Shock
Egypt and India stand alone among the major EMs in allowing their currencies to adjust freely to the spike in oil prices. This will stand them in good stead. A freely-floating exchange rate helps protect you from bad shocks like...
Silver Outpaces Gold, Hinting At
$SLV surged 6.5% in a week to $80.78 — outperforming $GLD. Silver has BOTH the monetary metal bid AND industrial demand tailwinds. When silver outperforms gold this aggressively, it's usually telling you something about where the economy is heading. https://t.co/SPn2igYPIv
Latin America Markets Surge on Expected Iran Peace, High Oil
At last week's IMF/WB meetings, markets were as bullish as I can remember on Latin America. They're trading an end to the war with Iran and oil prices staying elevated for a while, all of which benefits the region's oil...
Funds Dump Brent as US‑Iran Talks Spur Price Dip Expectations
Brent sees fund sales as diplomacy intensifies Investors realised profits from bullish long positions and started to accumulate bearish short ones last week, anticipating a further fall in Brent prices as the United States and Iran conducted face-to-face talks to find...
Geopolitical Tension Holds Market; One Headline Could Flip It
Monday setup: - Xi calls MBS overnight to open Hormuz (China is cracking) - Iran "maybe" talks round 2 in Islamabad - IRGC won't give up fissile material (deal killer) - SPX -50bp, NQ -40bp into the open One headline flips this market either way....
UAE Can Preserve Peg via Swap Line, Not Reserve Cuts
A lot of this seems preemptive, given UAE’s large existing FX reserves. Using a swap line for a bit to help maintain the currency peg would be seen as less disruptive than trimming reserves.
China Can Fund Payroll Cuts without Harming Benefits
There is obviously resistance to any move to changing the structure of taxation in China, but I would note a couple of things: 1) a holiday on payroll contributions (or a big cut) need not lead to fall in benefits; the...
China's Structural Advantage, Not Tactics, Drives US‑China Trade
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐏𝐚𝐫𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐞 𝐭𝐚𝐥𝐤𝐬 𝐰𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐧'𝐭 𝐚 𝐟𝐚𝐢𝐥𝐮𝐫𝐞. 𝐓𝐡𝐞𝐲 𝐰𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐚 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐟𝐢𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. In my latest piece for @FortuneMagazine , I argue that many CEOs and boards are asking the wrong question about the U.S.-China relationship. They are waiting for a "breakthrough" at...
Japan's 1960s “Excess Competition” Crippled Profitability and Stability
For those who are interested in Japan's recent economic history, and what that may tell us about other economies that copied its growth model, it is worth noting that in Japan, the term “excess competition” (過当競争, katō kyōsō) emerged, mostly...
China's Q1 Grain Imports Rebound, yet Lag Recent Highs
🇨🇳China’s Q1 2026 grain imports rebounded sharply on the year but remained below the bigger volumes seen in recent years. Still, it's a supportive trend for exporters. However, soybean and pork imports weren't quite as robust as in Q1 2025. https://t.co/NEI8MRwGDR
Oil's 10% Crash Signals Deflationary Shock
$CL_F crashed 10% in a single session — April 17. WTI fell to $84, down from a $110 peak. One day. 10%. Oil. That's not noise — that's a deflationary impulse hitting the macro backdrop at full speed. https://t.co/ju4e7ZBacD
Tariff Rhetoric vs Reality: American Seat Cushions Suffer
As Soumaya and I researched our book, companies kept describing a disconnect between what the President said about tariffs and their everyday reality. I visited Fall River, Massachusetts to see exactly how made-in-America seat cushions were being caught up in Trump's...
Closed Strait Triggers Global Supply Shortages and Food Price Surge
The economic impact of a closed Strait increases. Time delay. Supply shortages. Prices. Helium? Sulfur? Fertilizer—as planting season begins? Then it will be food scarcity and prices. More.
Soybeans May Touch $12.39, But $9 Likely
$12.39 Soybeans Could Mark 2026 High Soybeans have been between $9.36-$12.39 a bushel since the start of 2024, recently revisiting the upper end due to the Iran war. Sustaining above $12 may require an unlikely combination of WTI crude oil staying...
Stocks Rebound Post‑war; Gold Down, Rates Up
BofA: What Matters Today: The stock market has recovered from the start of the war, but gold remains lower and interest rates higher https://t.co/l2Md6r6thW
Asian Economies Highly Vulnerable to Middle East War Fallout
You’ve heard me warn about the vulnerability of several Asian economies to the fallout from the Middle East War, though I haven’t gone as far as this latest analysis in the NYT. #economy #markets #asia @nytimes #middleeastwar
Warsh's AI‑Productivity Pitch Meets Fed Colleagues' Resistance
Kevin Warsh rode an AI-productivity argument to Trump's Fed chair nomination. He says the boom will hold down prices and let the Fed cut rates. The pitch has run into a public wall of opposition from his future colleagues before...
Trump Admin Starts Returning $166 B in Revoked Tariffs
Today the Trump administration finally begins returning more than $166 billion (plus interest) collected from the tariffs the President imposed starting last year. The Supreme Court struck down those tariffs two months ago. by @TonyRomm & @AnaSwanson https://t.co/wpfqjsFTU5
LMEs Fall as Fed Rate Hikes Reverse Trend
"As the Fed began raising rates in 2022, LMEs increased as companies faced higher borrowing costs ... That trend is now reversing. Over the past nine months, LMEs have declined." -Apollo Slok
Trump’s Market‑soothing Rhetoric Threatens Iran Leverage
Trump should stop saying things just to calm markets that either don’t reflect real life or he has zero intention of following through on. If he gives up the blockade he loses his leverage against Iran.
US and Europe Must Forge New Alliance to Survive
The only hope that either the US or Europe has of surviving the current geoeconomic moment is to create a new type of alliance by @RanaForoohar https://t.co/oIiiYPepz5
Emerging Market Outflows Near COVID-Level Severity
EM "outflows have been almost as bad as during COVID, i.e. they’ve been massive." -Robin J. Brooks, Shadow Price Macro
Potential Impact on European Inflation, Stay Open‑minded
It could be nothing, or it could be significant, for inflation in Europe. At this point, I think it's worth keeping an open mind. https://t.co/48mNR7PmNZ
AI Could Counteract Aging Populations' Economic Strain
AI is entering an unexpected conversation around demographics. Falling fertility and aging populations are already straining economic systems, and AI could either offset the impact through productivity gains or deepen inequalities if benefits are uneven. The question is broader than technology. It...
China Revives Coal‑to‑gas Projects to Curb Gas Imports
China is looking to tap cheap domestic coal to limit its exposure to gas imports 🇨🇳👀 A high-profile Chinese coal-to-gas venture that lay dormant for over a decade is set to launch this year. The country has 13 new projects under...
Payroll Tax Cut Needed to Align Growth with Productivity
1/6 Good Steven Barnett piece. He points out that "targeting growth rates inconsistent with productivity trends leads to distortive policies", and argues instead for a "dramatic, permanent payroll tax cut" to boost consumption. https://t.co/M3fq4ltnmI
Hormuz Tension Leaves Dollar Dominance Unshaken
🔥The Hormuz Crisis: ▪️Pricing oil in US dollar is intact ▪️The GCC's dollar peg is intact