📺 WHY THIS FED MOVE СOULD BE SOLD 🛑 Get my newsletter tomorrow: https://t.co/Rqp84Wg39F The market has shown short-term strength going into the Fed today. $SPY has rallied meaningfully from around $662.34 to the $674 area, a solid move given the macro backdrop (AI concerns, layoffs, inflation, oil, geopolitics). Despite all the negative headlines, the market has only pulled back about ~5% from the highs, which signals underlying resilience and leaves many traders surprised. However, the market is now approaching a critical resistance zone (roughly $665–$676). This area is a “decision zone” or “rubber match” level that will determine the next directional move: – If bulls fail to reclaim and hold this zone, bears remain in control. – If price pushes into this zone (especially on a dovish Fed), it may be a good place to trim longs or add hedges rather than chase upside. Here is also a tactical approach to hedging: – When the market becomes deeply oversold (e.g., oscillator was at -51), it’s hard to stay short, so better to reduce hedges. – As the market rebounds and the oscillator normalizes (toward neutral), that becomes a better opportunity to reintroduce hedges. In other words, don’t hedge at extremes—hedge into strength. From a structural perspective, the market may simply remain range-bound within a channel, especially if price pushes into resistance and stalls. So, you should expect continued chop rather than an immediate breakout or breakdown. A few notes on the Fed: – I expect a slightly dovish tone, given global uncertainty. – However, the Fed will still acknowledge inflation, though they continue to frame it as largely transitory (especially war-driven inflation). – Regardless of tone, the Fed may create short-term volatility or “shakeouts” before the market settles. If you enjoyed this video, please ❤️like and 🔁retweet
Macro: US waiver shifts Russian crude to India, squeezing China; grades flipped to Brent premium 🛢️ Drivers: waiver, Hormuz closure, voyage economics. Risks: geopolitics, supply swings. Trade: buy Indian refinery exposure. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
A stock market correction caused by the Trump-Netanyahu War On Iran that spikes oil, yields & dollar poses the greatest risk to the US economy. Fixed it for ya, GS

China retaliated against tariffs by importing much less food from the US in 2025. Canada, Ukraine and the EU also got hit. Instead, China ramped up its food imports from many across emerging markets. Vietnam, Indonesia and Argentina are among...
🔴Thoughts on the Future of Energy Markets🔴 The most severe long-term consequence of escalating trade wars, tariffs, sanctions, disruptions involving Venezuela, Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and even moves like the Greenland interest isn't just higher prices or short-term supply shocks....
President Trump is demanding that the Fed immediately lower borrowing costs. But the war in the Middle East has now made any interest rate cuts much less likely in 2026 — not just in the U.S. but around the world. w/...

Hope Lifts Risk Appetites Ahead of the Bank of Canada and FOMC Meetings: There are three main talking points today. The first is the war. While it continues to rage, more oil is reportedly moving through the Strait of Hormuz...

Wild to think just 3 months ago there was an FOMC member projecting a 2-2.25% Fed Funds rate for 2026 (6 cuts from current). How quickly the times change... https://t.co/pLQLDHIdVx

Japan's gasoline price hits a record high 📈⚠️ 🛢️ The Middle East conflict and weak yen are delivering a double whammy to Japanese consumers 👉 Japan depends on the Middle East for most of its oil https://t.co/NMJurOwuQM https://t.co/ivLXm4sdIQ

MORE COLLATERAL DAMAGE FROM THE US-ISRAELI WAR AGAINST IRAN: More than 52,000 flights have been canceled across the Middle East. Roughly 6M passengers have been affected. According to the NYT, the resulting loss of tourist spending alone could range from $34B-$56B this year....

Hope seems to be lifting equities and bonds ahead of the Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve meetings. May WTI is lower but nearly $3 above lows. Hawkish hold may be more convincing from the Fed than the...
Will private credit stress push the Fed to once again backstop irrational exuberance ? https://t.co/dnERejAvPo
EVENT | Q2 2026 Macro Themes: Wednesday, March 18, 11:00 AM ET https://t.co/jT4huLbBBJ via @hedgeye

YIELD CURVE: doesn't care about Taco Time Trading, Tourists, etc. It cares about The Quads (i.e. The Cycle) #Quad1 peaked in early FEB and the #Quad3 slowdown continues in the real economy this morning https://t.co/KVMr12qbUs
China offering Taiwan stability in exchange for sovereignty This is less about energy and more about power. China doesn't have spare energy to offer. https://t.co/YAE9bzHoXv #China #Taiwan #Energy #Geopolitics #Power
Hormuz is a SYSTEMS SHOCK, writes @ctindale Energy → fertilizer → food → unrest → state control. This isn’t a disruption. It’s the exposure of a fragile system built on false efficiency. #Energy #Overshoot #Geopolitics #SupplyChains #Inflation
This is a key theme for EZ inflation/gas. The curve in gas suggests that EZ buyers hold their nerve, but supply is paramount. The longer it goes on, the higher is the risk that EU buyers will do what...
U.S. power can strike targets—but it can’t control Hormuz, writes @citrinowicz Hormuz isn’t a target—it’s a system, and it favors the disruptor. #Hormuz #Geopolitics #Oil #Energy
This isn’t just an energy shock—it’s a structural hit to the Gulf growth model, writes @anasalhajji Deals are collapsing, exports are stalled, capital is coming home. This goes far beyond oil. #Geopolitics #Energy #Gulf #Macro
.@JohnDelury: “Are we witnessing the end of the Pivot to Asia?…Trump’s desire to delay his China trip sends a clear message to the region that Washington has a serious bandwidth problem.” https://t.co/z3Dfcg9e3q
Surprised more people arent talking about 1990. Payrolls contracted in the month before the surge in oil prices, which tipped the economy more forcefully into recession. Fed couldn't respond sufficiently, delaying its cutting cycle for 6 months, until energy prices...
NEW ODD LOTS: It’s the return of the legend Bob Brackett @tracyalloway and I talk to Bernstein’s top commodities researcher about war in Iran and how natural gas flows are being reshaped all around the world. https://t.co/DlSfweVsgl
.@ZichenWanghere: “The United States is comfortable with economic ties that deepen Chinese reliance on U.S. supply—yet far less willing to tolerate even tightly constrained forms of Chinese participation in the U.S. economy.” https://t.co/DoXfoZWKzl

Europe's LNG imports have gone from 3% of gas supply in 1990 to nearly 50% today. We replaced Russian pipeline gas with LNG at record speed. But we replaced one dependency with another. That's why Europe is so exposed. Answer is transforming demand...

FOMC CHEAT CODE. Covering : - How to trade FOMC - How to spot a hawk or dove in FOMC - How to breakdown Powell's words in FOMC - How to know if FOMC is bullish or bearish See the comments to watch.

Good Morning from Germany, where newly issued debt has so far not been used for investment, but rather to finance election giveaways & plug budget holes – once again proving the laws of political economy. Acc to Ifo, public borrowing...
Goldman > While not our base case, we would not rule out US export restrictions. If implemented, they appear more likely for refined products than for crude oil.
Products matter as we don’t consume crude but the by products. The Philippines is vulnerable to export bans of not just diesel and gas but also eventually food should the conflict endures.

One has to be out of their mind to buy a petrol car - or bus, or scooter, or heater - today if they're even remotely cognizant of the reality around them ➡️New @EmberClimate report shows 75% of the world is...

If you heat with oil you are exposed to sky-high heating oil prices. US heating oil futures are near $4 per gallon and prices have almost doubled since February, driven by escalating disruption linked to the war in Iran and...
MOSCOW, March 17 (Reuters) - Russia's state nuclear company Rosatom, the country's sole producer of hafnium used in high-tech industries, said on Tuesday it had redirected its supplies of the metal from European to Asian markets.
Chinese Economy’s Bright Start Masks Uneven Growth as External Risks Loom—Data released showed industrial production rebounded on surging exports https://t.co/ccsgwcicJL https://t.co/ccsgwcicJL
FT says the economy is worse off because of economic warfare @TheMichaelEvery says that misses the point It’s not about prices on screens anymore. It’s about who pays $150 and who pays $100. Same shock. Different pain. That’s the strategy. https://t.co/sGABAdh3EV #Oil #Geopolitics #Statecraft #Energy

South Africa: Middle East conflict sparks fears of fuel rationing and petrol shortages in South Africa https://t.co/FvxkRqShtg
I'm afraid China's economic presence in Central Asia went way beyond oil, gas, and mining some time ago. If folks still think it's all just about extractive industries, they've missed quite a bit about the Chinese presence.
The FOMC is a mess. I have been writing about the original sin, the false flag of 2019, and a workable plan to kill inflation for 5 years. Here is Sundays client only DSR. I'm making it...

The visible forward book of China, Inc (state banks plus PBOC) -- or at least changes in the book after 2010 FX settlement data via Bloomberg 1/ https://t.co/IgUc2aEtHT
The first five oil shocks since 1970 triggered recessions. The sixth one in 2022 didn't. Now we're in the seventh spike. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/E0T0q5vh0c
Trying to get the folks who matter to care about industrial scale tax avoidance by US multinationals ...

Iranian FM Araghchi is talking of a new "post-war arrangement" for the Strait of Hormuz. Would be interesting to see what other details emerge. Right now, the markets are more focused on what kind of "war arrangement" might fall into place, if...
Trump Says Meeting With Xi Taking Place in Five to Six Weeks—President Trump said his planned summit in Beijing with Chinese President Xi Jinping will take place in about five or six weeks. @KThomasDC https://t.co/8gdFGagYZb

This measure of geopolitical risk just hit levels that put the current moment in the same league as the most dangerous moments of the 21st century. https://t.co/7ciy5RuN8b
My latest on tomorrow FED rate decision and what to expect for stocks and the US dollar
No one told Rubio that the United States is blocking oil shipments to Cuba. Trump wants to keep in the dark on this.
War, oil, and crypto collide with Ram Ahluwalia, Austin Campbell, Chris Perkins 🛢️ Why elevated oil risks flipping markets into an inflationary regime 📉 Deleveraging everywhere ₿ "Short gold, long Bitcoin" trade is back on the desk 🎲 Prediction markets...

PANTHEON MACRO: In a $150/barrel oil scenario, “we think inflation would peak in Q2 at about 6% ..” https://t.co/lFerTyCGCR
When the dust settles after tomorrow's Fed meeting, the potential economic costs of the war in Iran are likely to feel more real. Headlines will be hawkish with a greater emphasis on inflation, but downside risks to employment and disposable...
It should be taken with a grain of salt when you hear European and Asian countries saying they won’t help to open the Strait. Majority of these countries are short oil and will face severe crises if they don’t act....

This chart is going to look at lot different a month from now. Global Inflation Rates... https://t.co/97kgL1q8Hx
Plenty to talk about this week as @MrMBrown and I resume our weekly podcast. Amongst other things we'll be looking at crude oil's impact on markets which could well reverberate for some time #oilcrisis https://t.co/B6h8K0JLAj