Ideal Fed Policy: Minimal Meetings, No Politics, 2% Inflation
My wish list 8 meetings and press conferences Muzzle governors and presidents from discussing and writing about monetary policy Keep the dots Forward guidance when useful (typically at zero fed funds rate, or Pivots) Smaller balance sheet with no MBS and no long duration assets as the target with changes only at ZIRP or really extreme financial system stress 2% Inflation target No trading by all governors and presidents and most staff
Oil Prices Set to Surge After Gulf Shipments End
My take w/ @WallStBullion on why OIL is about to SPIKE: "By the end of April, all pre-war Gulf oil shipments will be delivered. Then, oil prices will spike again. Soon, the paper market will be mugged by reality & converge.” STAY LONG...
Warsh May Trim Fed Press Conferences if Confirmed
Fed Chair nominee Warsh hints he would reduce the number of press conferences if confirmed (Powell currently does one after every rate decision)
Arkansas Lithium Reserves Offer US Independence From China
US Sen Tom Cotton on lithium development in Arkansas: "We should not be relying on Communist China for this crucial mineral."
Trump Threatens Businesses over Tariff Refund Policy
Trump on tariff refunds, basically: Nice business ya got there; would be a shame if something happened to it. https://t.co/67e3RLjuR8 https://t.co/wlben8Vnlo
Fed Balance Sheet Cuts Must Be Gradual, No Fixed Target
What level should the balance sheet be at? Warsh: I haven't picked a number. The Fed should come to an agreement, it's taken 18 years to get to the balance sheet, it won't happen overnight. It should not hold long-term Treasuries....
Central Banks Must Act Differently in Crises, Leveraging Credibility
Warsh: central banks need to act differently in crisis versus other times. Those other times is when the credibility is built for the assertiveness during crises when they should be given the benefit of the doubt.
Warsh Pushed 2008 Rate Hike over Oil Price Worries
The reason Warsh wanted to hike rates in 2008, just months before the financial collapse was...wait for it...concern over high oil prices
Iran's Hormuz Threat Lacks Leverage without Clear Economic Damage
If Iran wants its future threats to re-close the Strait of Hormuz to be seen as serious leverage vs a future US administration, it's going to be tricky for Tehran to reopen the Strait before we see more acute—and truly...
US Economy Defies Oil Shock, Re‑Acceleration Persists
Maybe the econ re-acceleration thesis isn't dead from the oil shock.... The US economy truly is something else https://t.co/CKPkVkfOQG
Nations Squeezed: US Pressure vs Beijing Warning on Supply Chains
Many countries are caught in a vise: Washington wants them to strip Chinese content from their supply chains, and Beijing is warning them not to. @Lingling_Wei https://t.co/LilGzuOzlf https://t.co/LilGzuOzlf
Warsh's Trump Ties and Consistently Poor Fed Calls
It's not just that Warsh would be beholden to Trump. That is the most important thing, but it also overshadows the fact that his Fed calls down the years have been bad--not uniquely bad, but systematically bad. I'm old enough...
One-Year Inflation Expectations Surge to 4.8%, Year’s Largest Spike
JUST IN: One year inflation expectations jumped to 4.8%, the biggest one month spike in a year
Markets Expect Peace, Yet Escalation Threatens Energy Crisis
The markets have decided peace will be the outcome in the Middle East, writes @TheMichaelEvery But markets will be wrong The options are really limited IMO A fragile pause before escalation or escalation. But escalation has many faces. None averts an energy disaster. #OilMarkets...
Retire Dot Plots, Forward Guidance, and Cut Press Conferences
Shitposting aside, I think it would be a great move to retire dot plots, forward guidance, and have less press conferences
Warsh Says President Never Directed Specific Interest-Rate Decisions
Warsh's wording seemed quite precise to me (emphasis mine): "The president never asked me to predetermine, commit, fix, decide on *any interest rate decision*" He used the same wording again: "The president never once asked me to commit to any particular...
Regional Trade Agenda Drives SADC Economic Growth
President @edmnangagwa welcomes the President of Botswana, @duma_boko at the Robert Gabriel Mugabe International Airport… Regional trade is his on the agenda … and it is the catalyst that will accelerate economic growth and prosperity in SADC & beyond…....
Energy Shock From Trump and Hormuz Closure Spurs Fertilizer Surge
Fertilizer Prices Skyrocket Thanks To Trump, Strait of Hormuz Closure Abishur "Mr Geopolitics" Prakash explains why the energy crisis has quickly created a global food crisis. #cdnpoli #iranwar https://youtu.be/MG9J7FJIwzg
30-Year Yield Near Breakout, Markets Brace for Move
US 30Y yields are compressing near a key breakout zone setup suggests a decisive move could be close. What happens next could impact equities, commodities, and global liquidity Read the full breakdown: https://t.co/a7I8dqoCIw #US30Y #BondYields #ElliottWave #TechnicalAnalysis #Indiacharts #MacroEconomics...
Retail Sales Rise, but Inflation‑adjusted Sales Fall Fourth Month
Despite yet another "upside surprise" to retail sales, inflation-adjusted retail sales have declined for the fourth straight month. Goods prices are rising faster than the dollar value of goods sales Consumers are spending dollars, but aren't necessarily consuming more output https://t.co/EyAhZA065H
Kevin Warsh Calls for End to Forward Guidance
I can't believe Kevin Warsh just said he wants to kill forward guidance It's just a podcast man
Fed's 2021‑22 Mistakes Fuel Ongoing Inflation Legacy
Warsh opens the hearing by noting that today's inflation is a residual of the Fed's past mistakes "The Fed missed its mark, and we are still dealing with the legacy of the policy errors in 2021 and 2022." "Once you let inflation...
Rising Living Costs Reveal Fed’s Missed Inflation Target
Warsh on cost of living: when the cost of living has gone up for virtually all deciles of the American public, it's a sign that the Fed missed its mark. The fatal policy error is a legacy we still live...
Firms Caught Between US Push and China Warning
US wants China out of upstream supply chains. China warns against it. When trust of both parties is thin, what do firms do.? Geopolitics and war? Taiwan. Where and what is next? Supply chain alignment vs fluidity. Welcome to the...
Rising T‑Rates May Trigger Emerging Market Problems
Coach thinks T-rates could turn higher from here. That could cause a few problems. https://t.co/rnBUpVg4z1
Gold Bull Run Set for $6‑7K Amid US Policy Fear
My take with @WallStBullion on why the GOLD BULL is here to stay: "Gold will peak out at $6,000-$7,000/oz. People are worried erratic US policy. They don't want to get trapped in the dollar system for fear of sanctions. So they...
China’s Rare Earth Export Decline Exposes Deal Fragility
China. Drop in exports to the US. Rare earth minerals. What happened to the deal with China? The art of the quick “deal” meets political reality.
Trump's UN Trade-Over-Aid Proposal: Correct Yet Comically Bizarre
Good WaPo editorial on the Trump admin's correct - but bizarrely hilarious - UN proposal to promote "trade over aid." Physician, heal thyself. https://t.co/DIWuaiXQJ7 https://t.co/0Iub90NIKy
Trump’s Leverage Hinges on Optimistic Oil Market Assumptions
Current market pricing makes Trump feel like he's got breathing room to push for a better deal with Iran on his terms. But, of course, current market pricing assumes a speedy resolution of the war and reopening of Hormuz. https://t.co/se1cGNIDcn
US Launches $166B Tariff Refund Portal Amid Claims Rush
U.S. Opens Tariff Refund Portal as Companies Rush to Reclaim $166 Billion. How much of the $166 Bil will be actually refunded? Will Witkoff’s sons and their buying discounted refunds be given payment priority? Stay tuned. https://t.co/vAXtZCZ5WL
Markets Overlook Trump's Iran Threat, Valuations Overstated
THE MARKET IS MISSING WHAT TRUMP JUST SAID 🚨 Dollar ripping. Stocks green. Everyone's chill. Meanwhile: 🔴 Ceasefire deadline pushed to Wednesday evening 🔴 Iran hasn't sent a delegation to Pakistan 🔴 Trump on Truth Social: Iran "broke a lot of the terms" 🔴 Trump on...
U.S. Seeks Results, Iran Buys Time—No Quick Fix
There is no “silver bullet” with Iran, says @citrinowicz No knockout blow is coming. Iran plays for time. The U.S. plays for results. That’s the gap—and why the U.S. keeps failing. #Geopolitics #Iran #Strategy #EnergyCrisis
Hormuz Status Highlights Broken Global Energy System
Is Hormuz open or closed? Neither. It's a BROKEN global energy system You can get through the strait, but not reliably, not safely, and not at scale. The disruption is structural not temporary You can reopen a strait. Not a system. 👇 https://t.co/EMhvtItEos #Hormuz #OilMarkets #Shipping...
Guindos Urges ECB to Stay Prudent on Rates
Guindos says the ECB needs to be prudent, keep a cool head on interest rates https://t.co/M1IReINmVX via @basteiro https://t.co/oIMMI7cOLA
Trump Tightens Iran Blockade Amid Stalled Peace Talks
Trump Doubles Down on Iran Blockade as Peace Talks Hang in Balance. Two parties bullying as the art of the deal. Are they working on a true deal? If so, what will it be? And the supply of commodities? Before...
1981 US Rates Hit 16%, Outpacing Global Peers
Trump tells CNBC that the US had interest rates much lower than other countries when he was younger. The US had interest rates as high as 16% in 1981 -- far higher than major trade partners like West Germany and Japan...
Real Growth Drives Higher Rates in Strong Nations
What makes a country great is real growth generated by population and productivity growth and a debt that grows roughly with the real economy. A great country like that would have higher interest rates than countries with dwindling population and...
Trump Backs Rate Hikes yet Demands World’s Lowest Rates
Kernen: Would you ever be OK with the Fed raising rates if inflation becomes a problem? Trump: “I think Kevin’s great…. I’ve been in favor of interest rate rises to fight inflation” but “we should have the lowest interest rate in...
German Investor Confidence Hits 2022 Low Amid Iran War
German investor outlook drops to the worst since 2022 on Iran war https://t.co/rlVmAMdwkn via @NickHeubeck https://t.co/CYL6e3MWpn
Trump Says He'd Be Disappointed if Rates Aren't Cut
President Trump asked on CNBC if he would be disappointed if Warsh didn’t cut rates right away because of the Iran war or other factors: “I would”
Early Demand‑destruction Estimates Underestimate Global Barrel Shifts
I still personally struggle with these early demand destruction estimates. In many cases, a demanded barrel couldn’t be had at any price given acute initial shortages—presumably those who would still consume at higher prices will bid for other seaborne barrels, spreading...
Asian Empty Tankers Queue up From Cape to Gulf
Empty tankers mainly from Asia form long lines from Cape of Good Hope to US Gulf Coast. Find out more in the Chartbook Top Links today. https://t.co/otCxFTFsEp
Latin American Stocks Surge Despite Trump's Foreign Policy
JUST IN: Latin American stocks' bull run keeps charging ahead, unshaken by Trump's foreign policy.
US‑Canada Crude Surplus Could Drive Prices Toward $40
Lower Prices May Be Top Cure for US+Canada Surplus The recent WTI crude oil surge may add fuel to an incomplete low-price-cure cycle toward $40 a barrel. My graphic highlights a key reason why: the growing surplus in US and Canadian...
Trump Exempts Indian iPhones, Taxes Chinese Ones Heavily
"Tim would call me, but never too much, and I would help him where I could." My CHARTS illustrate one example Though Trump put 20% tariffs in March 2025 on iPhones made in China, he EXEMPTED iPhones made in India...
Warsh Confirmation: Will He Follow Trump’s Lead?
Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh will face many questions in his confirmation hearing today, but for senators, Wall Street and the White House, there’s only one that really matters: How much will he defer to President Trump? w/ @samjsutton & @Jasper_Goodman https://t.co/BuFORAIH0T
War Cuts 1bn Barrels, Threatening Recession if Hormuz Stays Closed
Oil market has experienced a loss of 1 billion barrels due to war, says Trafigura’s Rahim. Oil markets are one month away from tank bottoms AND a recession is possible if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for three more months,...
Blockade Cuts Iran's Oil Revenue, Offers Sanction Lessons
The blockade is a success. It's crimping Iran's oil revenues materially while barely pushing up oil prices. There's an big lesson here. Had we done this to Russia, it wouldn't still be causing mayhem in Ukraine. Lots of lessons to...
Supply Shock Doesn't Cause Rate Drop; Leverage Fueled by FOMO
Best section so far is between 35:00-38:00 where both @BobEUnlimited and @AahanPrometheus debunk the absolute nonsense of real rates falling due to a supply shock leading to a TINA like capital flow injection. People can lever up because of Momo/fomo...
US Redirects Fertilizer Overseas Amid Iran War Price Surge
Uh oh: "US buyers redirect imported fertilizer overseas as Iran war drives up global prices" https://t.co/bQZvdTkA8z https://t.co/4gCpKe44yx