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Tuesday recap
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
"Although President Donald Trump says he has 'destroyed 100% of Iran’s Military Capability', the 0% that remains is playing havoc with the global economy by choking off 10-15% of its oil supply." https://t.co/h5NKTbG7R8
Sorry it should be Pakistan, India, Singapore, Taiwan, China, Thailand, South Korea and Japan. By volume, China imports the most from Qatar but share of total is also very high so rather exposed.
US national debt just hit ~$39T fueling fiat debasement fears. Gold's parabolic run to $5,000+/oz & silver to $120+/oz? Classic safe-haven hedge against exploding debt, uncertainty, central bank buying & weak dollar. $gld $slv https://t.co/IcA8Eo0nGL
Reserves shouldn’t be for cushioning prices at this point… you may never know with the madmen bombing everything in the Middle East, there may be no fuel coming in at all… the reserves are for such times…. If it was...
The Eurozone’s inflation comes in at 1.9%/yr. That's below its 2% target. The ECB’s money supply is only growing at 3.4%/yr. That's BELOW Hanke’s Golden Growth Rate of 6%/yr, a rate consistent w/ hitting ECB’s 2%/yr target. INFLATION STORY = MONEY SUPPLY...
European gas prices surge 30% after Qatar said the world’s largest LNG export plant was damaged in an Iranian attack (Still TTF futures are far from the record highs of 2022) https://t.co/FC5b6KjHpJ
I can’t really see the scenario where stocks don’t go lower in the near term. Maybe that’s s bull case? Market has been so desperate for a taco people have been making their own and forgot that in an actual...
There's no way that shortly after tweeting this, the admin would destroy international confidence in the reliability of the U.S. as an energy exporter by restricting oil exports? Right?
Powell says the economy is strong and inflation will moderate. The stock market tanked anyway. The Fed may be trapped between geopolitical shocks and economic reality. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/z9r6WCt1RC
Takeaways from the March Fed meeting: • The era of 'easy' cuts could be over. Last year's were a recalibration; the next ones have to be earned with better inflation data or downside risks being realized. • The dots weren't as hawkish...
That's a bad/first echelon take. There is a much larger picture. China is the big loser in their grand strategy plans: https://t.co/usYe48iDIM
Really? Name one start-up think tank that analyzes the latest twist and turns in China's fx policy with any depth. I would humbly submit that this blog is at the analytical frontier, ahead of what most of...
Trump’s tariffs aren’t just numbers—they’re hitting American families in their wallets, raising prices, and forcing businesses to close.
Lots of chatter in the oil market about whether a Saudi refinery in the Red Sea was attacked or not. One thing, however, appears clear: crude loadings at Yanbu and Al Muajjiz continue as normal, with 4 tankers getting their...
Container port congestion eases after initial Iran shock Initial disruption to container supply chains from the Middle East crisis appears to have eased but rates remain elevated. https://t.co/fvMVOw29Pz
OUT NOW - how @BobEUnlimited sees it: - the repricing of the oil shock into markets is "just getting started" - higher inflation or lower growth, BOTH scenarios are bad for stocks Apple https://t.co/tA37rAtLtM Spotify https://t.co/wRcaaAtWld YouTube https://t.co/RDM5IJfiVx https://t.co/0Zt9BALTn7
This is a remarkable chart. Oil surges like the one we’ve seen recently have consistently preceded recessions. Chart by @thierryborgeat https://t.co/GpMNhNl06Y
Iran has successfully broken through Qatari air defenses for the second day in a row, this time striking the globally significant Ras Laffan energy complex. The strikes come after Iran’s own natural gas processing plants along the shared North Dome/South Pars...
Demand destruction started in Asia and spreading to Egypt. The only way this equation will square when supply is short is for demand to fall. Prices higher & demand falling means growth will be a challenge. The crisis will move from...
Since our January 13th macro memo, our top weighted pick BWET has more than tripled (and seems set to go even higher). Today, we released to subscribers a new list of names that have yet to reprice as violently in...
Turning Iran into Yemen isn't the strategic victory some people may expect if Red Sea shipping is anything to go by.
Let me be your Fed whisperer. What the Fed decided, what we can infer about it's next steps, how Iran and tariffs factored in, and what it all means for you. https://t.co/3JC756KIAH
Qatars industrial complex housing the world’s largest LNG export plant suffered “extensive damage” after an Iranian missile strike 🇶🇦 ⚠️ The plant provides 20% of global LNG supply, and was shut earlier this month. But a delayed restart (due to...
In my latest @ColumbiaUEnergy Energy Explained blog post, Neelesh Nerurkar & I argue that restricting US oil exports, once again reportedly being discussed in DC, would backfire—offering little relief to US consumers while imposing more significant economic and geopolitical costs
Participants at the FOMC meeting rounded the wagons around Powell at a difficult moment for Fed independence. What looked like a dovish pause on the surface had hawkish undertones. Risks to meeting participants forecasts were to the downside on growth,...
Fed Chair Jay Powell fired a warning shot today, reminding the White House that he holds some pretty important cards. Yes, it's drama, melodrama and soap opera. But it also really matters. And I admire how Powell has handled himself here....
If Hormuz is still closed in a month (it likely will be), this is going to turn into "We are doing more not-QE RMP's into an oil spike, but we are NOT monetizing deficits" so fast that investors heads will...
Not looking good. Crude exports down between 25% and 67% from the Middle East, depending on country
Could Trump Tariffs Work to Canada's Advantage? The calculation: Maintain trade w/USA more or less as is, but add a great deal more trade with other countries. Econ prof Joe Steinberg, @UofT, unravels Trump's trade mess. #cdnpoli https://youtu.be/nOR2AvDzqGc
If you think demand played a large roll in the pandemic inflation, you are a lot less worried today. If you think it was mostly supply shocks, well you are more worried about supply shocks being inflationary. This explains some...
President Trump claiming the stock market is doing down because of Fed Chair Powell. The stock market has declined because of the conflict in the Middle East, higher oil price and risk of rising inflation. So, the President himself is responsible...
Using an inflation print from February before the Iran war even began to say that there's been no inflation >
The FOMC's forecast revisions were tiny compared to the images we're seeing from the Middle East.
For the geopolitical experts out there - what are the odds that the US was keen to start this war due to intel that China was looking to make a move on Taiwan and that an energy crisis / Strait...
$FXI down 8% since January. China imports the bulk of its oil through the Strait of Hormuz. A prolonged closure doesn't just hit energy costs. It hits the entire growth model. https://t.co/lSosVCvxcm
That was a hawkish presser. JP discounted the latest NFP print and revisions. Spent time discussing rate hikes even if hypothetical. Highlighted anchored inflation expectation as a prerequisite for further rate cuts.
Markets didn't like that. Going to need to trot out some fed representative and clean it up soon is my guess.
China's manufacturing surplus looks to have taken another leg up. Always a good idea to get confirmation in March given the new year distortions. But Europe looks to be getting squeezed both by China and higher energy prices https://t.co/8EZnqysgKL
Powell says he definitely would not use the word "certain" to describe his view on the onetimeness of the inflationary effect of tariffs
In my 20+ years watching markets, this is one of the best central bank press conferences I've ever seen. Its right up there with Draghi and Bernanke's greatest hits. Chair Powell is in rare form.
The problem with dismissing all the shocks as "one-time things" is that they all have the same directional impact on inflation and underlying inflation was already running around 3%, which means that in practice you will never hit a 2%...
A propos of Powell's comments just now: non-housing services inflation versus ECI wage growth. You can see a bit of a wedge opening up, with nominal wage growth cooling while services inflation stays tenacious. https://t.co/WmtcQV5Cxr
Powell says he has no intention of leaving the board until the investigation is over. And beyond that, he says he has not decided whether or not he will remain on as a Governor after is his term as chair.
Powell did not have a good answer to the question of why non-housing services inflation has been moving the wrong way if the job market is actually "not inflationary"
Fed Chair Powell says we "just don't know" what impact of oil shock will be. "The standard learning is that you look through energy shocks, but that’s always been dependent on inflation expectations remaining WELL ANCHORED." "The US economy is doing pretty...
Approaching 3 weeks of Strait closure and no end in sight. Crazy things are happening out there.
Interesting catch where Powell corrects himself from saying "weakness in the labor market" (objectively wrong) to "downside risk in the labor market" (maybe wrong but at least defensible)
Fed Holds Rates, now with Only 1 Dissenter, Sees Accelerating Inflation & GDP Growth. Dot Plot projections still point at 1 rate cut in 2026. Powell: “If we don’t see that progress [on inflation], then you won’t see that rate cut.” https://t.co/d1jJR0aFr2
Powell reiterates that the Fed "worries a lot" about inflation expectations becoming unanchored due to the multiple shocks over the last 5 years.
Powell says US oil companies won't raise production unless they believe oil price shocks will be persistent and they don't believe this. Why can't the Fed say the same?
