Warsh Calls Core PCE ‘Rough Swag,’ Favors Trimmed Mean
At his confirmation hearing, Warsh dismissed core PCE as "rough swag" and said he'd prefer to focus on better gauges of underlying inflation like median or trimmed mean. This got attention because Dallas Fed trimmed mean was 2.3% in February (y/y)—well below core PCE at 3.0%. https://t.co/4KQBuAMPgU
Iran Conflict: Strategic Threat or Opportunity for China?
Is the Iran war a strategic threat or an opportunity for China? https://t.co/E82r5V2x3h @QamarEnergy @TheNational
Mapping Hormuz Bypass Easy, Execution Far More Challenging
Bypassing Hormuz: “You can draw beautiful lines on the map. To try to make it happen in reality is something else.” @QamarEnergy @ColumbiaUEnergy @rfelliott https://t.co/JKNGbORqzA
Korean Equities Soar While Currency Fundamentals Crumble
Crazy retail outflows into levered US stock funds -- and a national pension service that is a structural source of weakness in the won (by design) and that the Koreans have had trouble turning off even when it worked at cross...
Retail Sales Soar as Consumer Confidence Hits Record Low
US Retail Sales hit another all-time high while Consumer Sentiment is at its lowest level in history. Watch what they do, not what they say. https://t.co/mZJ1r5oqcI
Iran War's Ripple Effect on UK and Global Economy
Catch my take at 18:10 on the impact of the Iran War on the UK, European and global economy #bbcnews
US Flips From Trillion Promises to Billion Bailouts
Amazing how fast the US has swung from hyping the "trillions" it was going to get from the oil sheiks and Asia ... to talking about providing those same countries with billions in bailouts (swaps ... ) 1/ https://t.co/rAOp6Do3pc
China's Consumer Rebound Hinges on Three E‑commerce Giants
China's consumer rebound isn't a headline. It's a tape. Alibaba, JD, Pinduoduo: the three names that make or break the story. @KraneShares lays it out. https://t.co/87UdsGYIfb
U.S. Aims for Expanded China Agricultural Trade Deal
🇺🇸🇨🇳The U.S. will be seeking a wider agreement on agricultural trade purchases from China when Trump and Xi meet next month. https://t.co/eXKPiy2XZF
Warsh's Potential Fed Reforms Analyzed by Experts
Read this morning’s rundown from me and @samjsutton about reforms Warsh might make to the Fed: https://t.co/bBY0mNIO8y
Trump’s False Price Promises Fuel Voter Anger, Zero Inflation Expectations
Fascinating Krugman Substack: https://t.co/6jRnFjpU3x 👉"So what explains the public’s anger? My hypothesis is that it has a lot to do with the fabulist promises Trump made during the 2024 campaign, when he asserted that grocery prices would come down “on Day...
Iran Conflict Expands Beyond Energy to All Sectors
The Iran war is no longer just an energy story - it's becoming an everything story.... https://t.co/TDBA7DATcU
US ESF's Dollar Holdings Too Small for GCC Support
ESF isn't all that big -- And its liquid dollar assets are actually quite small Lines for all US allies in the GCC would be small v many countries existing reserves (let alone their SWFs) and would have to be funded out...
Late Stablecoin Adoption Risks Economic Obsolescence
Countries slow to adopt stablecoins will face the same problem as late internet adopters. Sending money across borders still costs 6% and takes days, while stablecoins settle in seconds for fractions of a cent with no intermediaries sitting in the...
Cash Surges in 2025, Boosting Fed Balance Sheet
𝐂𝐚𝐬𝐡 𝐢𝐬 𝐝𝐞𝐚𝐝. 𝐋𝐨𝐧𝐠 𝐥𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐡. The @NewYorkFed's SOMA annual report shows currency growth accelerated in 2025! This is a bit surprising given the digital age, but it bodes well for the Fed's balance sheet and operating income. (1/7) https://t.co/jvk7p0srbM
Global Institutions Pivot to Interventionist Economic Policies
What a world... The IEA is now an energy transition shop. The World Bank now embraces industrial policy for development. Next you're gonna tell me the IMF now supports total capital controls...
Watch All Markets Simultaneously for Edge
Risk-on: equities up, credit tight, EM leads, dollar weak. Risk-off: Treasuries rally, gold bid, yen strengthens, defensives lead. Most investors watch one market. The edge is watching all of them simultaneously. Divergence is the warning. $TLT $GLD $EEM https://t.co/wrXRW1Rzy6
China’s Real Challenge: Weak Domestic Consumption, Not US Asset Harvest
Agree it's an interesting paper, but largely because it is based on a false premise. China's core strategic challenge is NOT "how to 'harvest' US relinquishing assets." China's core strategic challenge is how to address inadequate (and falling) domestic consumption...
Market Always Finds Fault in Fed Transparency, Past or Present
The market will go back to criticizing the Fed for lack of transparency the way it used to before the Fed ramped up its transparency. The only constant is that the market is always find something to complain about in...
Iran War Inflation Drives Rates Despite Upcoming UST Auction Schedule
It has been almost two weeks since the last UST coupon auction. Today's 20y starts up a bunched up schedule in the next week that is another headwind for rates. Of course, the Iran war inflation remains the...
Trump's Iran Missteps Cost the U.S. Economy
Grateful to appear on @davidfrum Show podcast for @TheAtlantic on the economic impact of Trump's war of stupid choices in Iran. Thanks for the discussion, depressing though it was to cover. https://t.co/qG9YP6iu0A
5-Year Yield Rises Toward Downtrend Line
Interest rates worth watching here. 5-year yield pushing up into the recent downtrend line after holding support last week https://t.co/n0HhB2UYKx
Fed’s Rate Tightening Always Ends With Credit Cracks
The Fed's core dilemma: inflation requires higher rates. Credit breaks at higher rates. Every tightening cycle ends when something cracks — not when inflation hits target. 1982: S&L stress. 2007: housing. 2023: banks. Always the same story. $TLT https://t.co/Ogvr0NZVik
Traders Bet $430M on Oil Drop Pre‑Trump Ceasefire
Traders placed bets worth $430 million on a drop in crude prices just 15 minutes before President Trump said he would extend a ceasefire with Iran, which sent the market lower @a_coops1 https://t.co/v167motouv
Mortgage Rates Poised to Climb Despite Low Oil
I find it interesting how many people think mortgage rates won't up from here. Despite $100 a barrel oil, total unknowns in the Middle East, and the fact that mortgage rates are historically HIGHEST in the months of May and June. Seems...
Gold Surges when Monetary Regimes Shift, Not Just Inflation
Gold doesn't shine every year. It shines during monetary regime changes. 1971: Bretton Woods collapses → gold 10x'd by 1980. Post-2008 QE era → gold 6x'd by 2011. The driver wasn't just inflation. It was confidence in the system itself. $GLD $GDX https://t.co/LTB2CfST8r
China’s Influence Extends Beyond Two Nations in LATAM, Middle East
If folks really think China's entire "standing" in both Latin America and the Middle East hinged on just two countries, they have not paid sufficient attention to the diversity of China's offerings, the local "pull" instead of just Chinese "push"...
China Appears to Be Offloading US Treasury Holdings
China's been selling treasuries, it looks like. At least from what the https://t.co/2NINP4wNc9 data seems to be saying. https://t.co/fPbYm8T3Wf
Iran War Sparks Massive Commodity Price Surge, Markets Stable
Since the start of the Iran war... Jet Fuel: +60% Sulfur: +53% Urea: +49% Heating Oil: +46% Diesel: +46% Brent Crude Oil: +36% Fertilizer: +35% Gasoline: +35% WTI Crude Oil: +35% European Natural Gas: +33% Palm Oil: +14% Coal: +12% Iron Ore: +8% Rice: +6% S&P 500: +3% $VIX: -4%
Inflation Surges Across Everyday Items, War Not Sole Cause
Even before the war, we were in the camp that inflation was a bigger issue than most realized. Really neat table from @sonusvarghese that shows various common goods and services we all use, but broken down by annualized inflation over certain...
Fed Balance Sheet Debate Mirrors Religion, Yet Intriguing
The Fed balance sheet convo often feels like debating religion or philosophy, but it’s a fascinating storyline
ECB Fuels US‑payment Paranoia to Accelerate Digital Euro
ECB's Piero Cipollone is currently being grilled by Nicolas Veron on the digital euro in a refreshingly sharp way. Veron just pointed out that the ECB's paranoia about the US payment companies pulling out of Europe is somewhat far-fetched, to...
EU Unlocks €90 Billion Loan for Ukraine After Veto Lifted
"Ukraine will finally start receiving a €90 billion ($106 billion) loan from the European Union after Hungary lifted its veto, ending months of wrangling over the vital cash injection for the war-torn country. EU ambassadors gave preliminary approval for the loan’s...
Markets Already Discounted Trump's Post‑2025 Tariff Threats
Not sure I follow you on this one. After April 2025 markets largely discounted Trump‘s tariff threats. See my ebook, World War Trade https://t.co/WUh40aRFn0
Former FOMC Insider Says Warsh Lacked Independence at Hearing
This is quite a comment from someone who served on the FOMC for nearly four years with Kevin Warsh. He says Warsh failed to project independence at his hearing.
US Cuts Iran Oil, Delivering Sharp Economic Pain
The best way to deal with a belligerent oil exporter is to cut off its oil exports. The West dropped the ball on Russia in 2022, but the US is now doing this right with Iran. Iran faces severe economic...
Wall Street Overlooks Escalating Middle East Tension
⚠️ STOCKS ARE IGNORING WAR RISK ⚠️ Here's what Wall Street is NOT telling you today: 🔴 Iran seized 2 ships in Hormuz 🔴 Tested the US blockade with supertankers 🔴 Trump extended the ceasefire (good) 🔴 But Tehran is...
Yield Caps Shift Fiscal Strain to Yen, Raise Rates
There's no free lunch in macro. The Yen keeps falling because Japan uses the BoJ to cap yields. That doesn't make fiscal strain go away. It just transfers it from the bond market to the Yen. The way out is...
Shipping CEO Warns Post‑war World Won’t Revert
A top shipping company: “We will not go back to the world where we used to” “It’s a bit naive to say that, after this has ended, that things will go back to pre-war situations,” said Tamura, CEO of Mitsui OSK Iran...
UK's Yield Strategy Beats Japan's Yield Caps
The UK gets a lot of guff for being a fiscal basket case due to its high yields, but that's not right. The counter-example is Japan, which caps yields using the BoJ (lhs), sending the Yen into a depreciation spiral....
U.S. Blockade Sparks Iranian Infighting, Shows Economic Power
The US has pivoted to a full economic blockade of Iran. You can tell it's highly effective by the state of agitation in Iran, which has descended into infighting on how to deal with this. Economic warfare isn't perfect, but...
Trump Tariffs Squeeze Small Seat Cushion Maker
Section 301 tariffs IEEPA tariffs Supreme Court Section 122 tariffs How President Trump's tariff policy is affecting one small manufacturing company in Fall River, Massachusetts that just wants to make your seat cushions. https://t.co/e3N2oQk6Ix
German Chemists Regain Pricing Power Amid Iran Conflict
Good Morning from Germany where the Iran conflict just solved the German chemical sector’s biggest problem within 2 mths. 🧪With Asian rivals starved of naphtha, BASF and Wacker Chemie are reclaiming the pricing power they lost over the past 6yrs....
US Pushes Mineral Price Floor, Threatens Tariffs on China
US wants club of countries to trade minerals at set minimum prices to protect their investments in mining/processing, and could hit outside producers — eg China — with steep tariffs or other barriers to prevent them driving down prices. by @Aime_Williams...
US Dominates South Korea with 75 Bases, Third‑largest Overseas Footprint
The US has 75 military bases in South Korea, the 3rd highest concentration of US foreign bases. In South Korea, Uncle Sam runs the show. https://t.co/A9l6MhQOa3
Qatar Readies US LNG Plant for First Exports
Qatar is preparing to begin exports from its LNG plant in the US 🇶🇦🤝🇺🇸 An empty tanker docked at the Golden Pass facility in Texas this week. The plant is partially owned by QatarEnergy -- its only overseas LNG facility Exports from Qatar...
Sudan's Pound Plummets 36%, Ranks 4th Worst Globally
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Sudanese pound ranks as the WORLD'S 4TH WORST CURRENCY. The pound has depreciated by 36% against the USD over the past year. https://t.co/1Z4zQZWauW
North Korea's Won Plummets 69%, World's 2nd Worst Currency
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the North Korean won ranks as the WORLD'S 2ND WORST CURRENCY. The won has depreciated over 69% against the USD in the past year. THE WON'S COLLAPSE REMAINS THE WORLD'S MOST UNDERREPORTED CURRENCY STORY. https://t.co/d4hUPUxkTp
China's Biggest HK Yuan Bond Sale Hits Record‑low Yields
Bloomberg: "China’s biggest yuan bond sale in Hong Kong since 2023 drew record-low yields for both two- and 15-year debt, with two-year debt selling at a yield of 1.32% and 15-year debt at 2.08%." https://t.co/Q9FDkpbbJE
State‑owned Firms Boost Investment 24%, Spur Growth
1/2 Yicai: "The 100 companies owned by China's central government raised their fixed-asset investment by 24 percent to more than CNY1 trillion last quarter from a year ago, playing an important role in driving the country's overall economic growth." https://t.co/a1CUMZDz2A