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Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
German inflation probably surged to the highest level in more than a year after the Iran war propelled energy costs https://t.co/n3dBXpKCWg https://t.co/lLUlaIWF5t
Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate in the US… 1970s: 8.9% 1980s: 12.7% 1990s: 8.1% 2000s: 6.3% 2010s: 4.1% 2020s: 5.3% --- All-Time Low (Jan 2021): 2.65% 2023 Peak (Oct 2023): 7.79% Today's Rate: 6.38% (highest since Sep 2025) https://t.co/EZVocXbneE
US Dollar's Advance Continues but Verbal Threats Lift the Yen: The Middle East war rages on. The Houthis have entered the fray and there is risk that it shuts the Bab El-Mandeb Strait. Aluminum and steel facilities have been reportedly...
"WTO reform talks collapse over US-Brazil standoff" https://t.co/mWuUR2PKbn "The failure to extend the moratorium opened the door to countries to impose tariffs on digital services." https://t.co/uEGCJ2r00s
Good Morning from #Germany, where #inflation is picking up again on the back of the oil and gas shock. In North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW), the country’s most populous state, CPI rose 1.2% MoM; the biggest increase since Sep 2022. Year-on-year, NRW...
Hedge Fund Selling Shows Signs of Capitulation From GS via BBG: - “Some signs of capitulation are starting to emerge” - Funds cut global equities for a 6th straight week - Europe macro product shorts are at a 10-year high - CHART: US selling hit...
#tradeXpresso: new econometric evidence found that an increase in #Mode5Services increase agricultural exports: https://t.co/iXzkgkHHzs One day, multilateral trade rules could evolve to follow new business realities: https://t.co/oZ5tuJYjhk
$USD is mostly firmer. $JPY is the notable exception. Escalated verbal intervention and news that the BOJ would consider a larger than usual rater move, have encouraged a pullback from around JPY160.40. NY may be less worried about intervention....
JET FUEL prices have more than doubled since the onset of the war between the United States, Israel and Iran. Jet fuel swaps in Singapore are trading at more than $200 per barrel up from just over $90 before the...
🇪🇺Another unsurprising yet unpleasant chart, showing a sharp rise in European consumer inflation expectations. Expectations from companies were much more contained though. The bigger focus will be on potential second round effects, too early to tell. https://t.co/zQ567go12i
To me, the news cycle now resembles that of March 2020, where it feels like we're dealing with an unpredictable threat that will have immense global consequences. That's subjective, though the swing in oil prices provides a data point to back...
Geopolitical Cushion: The West Asia crisis, now entering its fifth week, is providing a floor for prices. Investors are holding onto gold and silver as "safe-haven" assets to protect against uncertainty.
Plenty of analysis of the Gulf's two bypass pipelines - but as Hormuz remains near-shut, what more can the GCC do to avoid the Strait and narrow? https://t.co/6EwDOmaObS @TheNationalNews
COLUMN: Five weeks into the Third Gulf War, the math of oil-barrel counting is intractable: The world is short of the black stuff. Enter demand destruction. @Opinion https://t.co/Y2DPUcHM8s
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan warned “we are heading toward a greater war.” He called the conflict a fight for Netanyahu’s “political survival”, with consequences that “affect the whole world.” https://t.co/DJNLKRC4xI
Macro economist gone all wild bear mode. Stocks will be raging lower. Why? Market is still not pricing the impact of a prolonged war as the credit spread is gapping. Will share more details today.
JUST IN: Markets dropped to a four-month trough as the oil price surge unnerved traders.
JUST IN: Trump signals no issue with Russian tanker fuel for Cuba, effectively easing the oil blockade.
JUST IN: Trump's Strait of Hormuz warning and Iran's counter-threats are making oil prices jumpy.
The EU-India trade deal cuts tariffs, but CBAM stays unchanged and keeps carbon compliance in focus. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/eu-india-fta-and-cbam-remain-on.html
This was never just about price. While most focus on where oil is trading, the more important question is who prepared for this environment. Stockpiling, reserves, and long-term planning change how pressure is absorbed — and how decisions get made when systems...
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: Net foreign direct investment (FDI) into India was a NEGATIVE $1.4B in January. That marks 5 STRAIGHT MONTHS of negative flows. INDIA’S MOUNTAIN OF GOVERNMENT RED TAPE = REPELS FDI = BIG PROBLEM.
One of the ironies of the current war and the Strait of Hormuz crisis is that President Trump inadvertently helped GLOBALIZE China’s approach of tightly linking control over energy sources to national energy security. The long-term implications of this development...
This is unreal: Trump just ‘granted permission’ for Russia to deliver oil to Cuba saying “Cuba is finished… whether or not they get a boat of oil…” Trump views 9.7 -11 million people as mere pawns subject to his rule and...
Lots of talk about oil exporters in the Gulf selling fx reserves. That may happen. But for now the visible fall in fx reserves is coming from the oil importers (CBRT = Turkey, RBI= India) https://t.co/8prQkznGG6
Taiwan will be receiving its last shipment of Oil from the Strait of Hormuz in the next couple of days. Over under odds China will try to take advantage of their lack of fuel supply and Trump concentrating military power...
"I don't see any possibility of a resolution to this conflict," says @ksadjadpour "We could see a potential ceasefire that opens the Strait of Hormuz, he added I don't see any possibility of that either.
Here is what I said: “If your only hope is two Fed cuts this year, you’re backing the wrong horse.”
Trump allowing the Russian oil tanker to reach #Cuba does NOT disprove the US quarantine. It PROVES it. The only oil that will reach Cuba is the oil that the US allows. As I scooped a month ago: the plan is to...
Trump just said that he has "no problem" if a country wants to send oil to #Cuba right now. May come as a BIG surprise to Mexico and a few other countries -- which were threated with tariffs just TWO months...
HEADLINE NEXT YEAR: The X tweet bridge built between Japan and America added 3% to their combined GDPs
Think of the 1-year forward 1-year inflation swap as a market gauge for the current inflation vs growth battle. At the start of the war, the forward measure surged higher along with the current 1-year swap as inflation concerns dominated, but...
My latest with @davidlin_TV on US energy dependence: "If you include all energy products, the US is a net exporter. But if you look at crude oil, the US is a net oil IMPORTER. Forget that we are a net exporter of...
We are getting to that point of doom on Iran where X got to on Ukraine. Back then without gas and food we were going to be cholipping frozen, starved, dead Europeans of the streets. This time it's oil, gas,...
My job is to entertain you most of the time, occasionally quell sensationalist headlines, and so forth. You know, the normal stuff. But each day the Strait of Hormuz remains closed is a growing global catastrophe that people are sleepwalking into. That’s the...
However bad you think things are in the United States, they're worse in Canada and the UK.
I’ve been describing the supply loss from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as an “air pocket” moving through the normal flow of oil out of the Gulf Helpful map from JPM highlighting when that air pocket will “land” in...
Below is an example of a new and ongoing economic risk to the US economy from the US-Israeli War on Iran — What begins as a "cost of living" problem (Energy Price Shock), if sustained, risks evolving into a "fewer...
a surprisingly good month for putin. russia making bank on oil, gas. fertilizer. us sanctions suspended. us weapons now prioritized for iran war. russia supporting iran without consequence. and a russian tanker with oil now allowed through to cuba by...
A Hormuz toll run by Iran. Think of the logistics costs and impact. It could be considered a war failure by the US and Israel.
Fertilizer prices have moved up to their highest levels since September 2022, rising 52% YoY. About a third of global fertilizer supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz. This will drive food price inflation higher in the coming weeks/months. https://t.co/KYmqkbca60
A stunning 53% spread between the best and worst performing S&P 500 sectors so far this year: -Energy $XLE: +41% -Financials $XLF: -12% This is what stagflation looks like... https://t.co/mjjvgXsRDs
Global economy could collapse by early May: Analyst issues stark warning over oil crisis https://t.co/HeVyeLGS3s
Good thing the Fed has plenty of room to tighten conditions to address this… Oh wait…. https://t.co/xZ0zMju2vr https://t.co/uMkuuXymWU
Price increases since the start of the Iran war... Heating Oil: +77% European Natural Gas: +71% Brent Crude Oil: +58% WTI Crude Oil: +51% Urea: +48% Diesel: +44% Sulfur: +43% Gasoline: +42% Fertilizer: +29% Coal: +21% Palm Oil: +14% Iron Ore: +7% Rice: +7% US Natural Gas: +6%
The problem was that Trump put the big tariffs on the upstream inputs that would’ve helped America industry be competitive. With those high tariffs it makes American industry less competitive with imports from the other industrial powers like China Korea,...
My latest with @davidlin_TV on physical vs. paper oil markets: "The physical markets are trading well above the paper market prices. Eventually, the paper market is going to be MUGGED BY REALITY, & the price of the paper market will be...
Geopolitical risk is rising. Oil is volatile. Supply chains are under pressure. And high yield spreads sit near historic lows. Something has to give. $JOJO. https://t.co/0h0KmfyB5U
Larry Fink: oil could hit $150/bbl — even AFTER a ceasefire — if Iran remains a threat. Brent is already at $112. The tail risk isn't priced. Equities are still trading like this ends cleanly. What does $150 oil do to inflation? To...
The S&P 500 is down 7% in the first 59 trading days of 2026, the 14th worst start to a year in history. $SPX https://t.co/giuunxMRVO
