Oil Spikes Above $100 as Hormuz Closure Persists
The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, with the flimsiest of ceasefires looking flimsier by the hour, and oil prices have jumped back above $100 a barrel. At times like these, it’s important to remember that things can still get much, much, much worse. https://t.co/554PuRW1l8
Australia Raises Rates Again, 4.35% Target
Global Central Bank Update: -Australia hiked rates for the third straight meeting, 25 bps move up to 4.35%. https://t.co/l5IYmkeySJ https://t.co/r926jXlyCl
Prediction Market ETFs Offer Bias‑Free Macro Bets
NEW: Bet the President, Fed or CPI- Skip the Analysis, Guesswork and Bias. New from me today on the reason prediction market ETFs could be more popular and legit than people think. Every big macro event (Election, Fed, etc) we...
Inflation Set to Surge Amid Deficits, Oil, Tight Labor
Another bout of inflation is largely baked in the cake. Deficit still at 5.8% of GDP despite DOGE. Strait of Hormuz keeping oil elevated. Immigration restrictions tightening labor supply just as capex boom creates new hiring demand. Wage growth is turning...
Iran’s Existential Threat Fuels Erratic Response to US Strait Push
What's happening in the Strait of Hormuz this week is very significant. Iran is blockaded, while at the same time the US is trying to open up the Strait to Western ships. All this is an existential threat to Iran...
Carney Aligns Canada with Europe Amid Trump Challenges
Carney Pulls Canada Closer to Europe as Both Struggle With Trump My report from Yerevan which was published yesterday morning (I was on the flight home with the PM for 12 hours without wifi so only sharing now) #cdnpoli https://t.co/53eqQrAEpx
US Blockade Works, Opponents Serve Oil Lobby
There's a lot of animosity towards the US blockade, like in 2022 when many of the same people opposed the G7 cap on Russia. This stuff is just lobbying on behalf of the global oil industry. The blockade is working....
Iran Emerges Central in US‑China Strategic Bargaining
Araghchi’s visit to Beijing on May 6—just a week before the Xi–Trump summit—signals that Iran may have moved to the center of US-China strategic bargaining. There is a real possibility that the mid-May meeting will not only further stabilize Sino-US...
From Near‑Zero to 6%: Bond Yields Surge
In 2020, with global interest rates near 0%, Austria sold this hundred-year bond to investors. Today, the United Kingdom is offering almost 6% (5.77%) for 30 years, think about that. https://t.co/6DDMRv4cEL
UK 30‑Year Yield Peaks at 5.76%, Highest Since 1998
*UK 30-YEAR YIELD CLIMBS TO 5.76%, HIGHEST SINCE 1998 -- On September 27, 2022, the 30-year UK hit 4.99%. This was so intolerable that UK Prime Minister Liz Truss was forced to resign. Today, the UK's 30-year yield is 77 bps higher. https://t.co/NotUU2B1Gv
Bonds Under Fire, Yet Remain Reliable Anti‑Growth Asset
Man my feed is hating on bonds today. Bad takes everywhere "The death of" every portfolio that includes bonds story "Inflation B/E's" unanchored. "10 year returns on TLT" or "Global Fixed Income" negative "Why would you own bonds" Imho bonds are meh...
Hong Kong Posts 5.9% Q1 Growth, 13th Straight Rise
Hong Kong's economy expanded 5.9% in the first quarter from a year earlier, official advance estimates showed on Tuesday, the 13th consecutive quarter of growth and the strongest quarterly rate in nearly five years.
RBA Hikes, Signals Pause; JPY Weakest, Oil Drops
$USD is mostly a little softer as the North American session gets under way. $JPY is the weakest of the G10 currencies, off about 0.25%. Local mkts remain closed tomorrow. RBA hikes rates but signals a pause,...
Zimbabwe’s Economy Booms Under Mnangagwa’s Vision 2030
CAB3 is a DONE DEAL because the PROGRESS & POSITIVE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK under President @edmnangagwa can’t be disrupted. Capri Appliances, manufactures refrigerators for the Zimbabwean market & for export. The business is BOOMING, & they are expanding operations. Electricity is...
Treasury Cuts Inflation Table, Keeps only CPI, Food, Energy
Treasury's latest economic report to the TBAC (private-sector advisers on public debt issuance) slimmed down its inflation table, dropping core inflation measures along with a range of subcategories. What's remaining: headline CPI, food, and energy. Q1 (left) vs Q2 (right) https://t.co/XQ4paUIFqa
IEA Gathers Global Ambassadors to Tackle Middle East Energy Crisis
Pleased to convene Ambassadors from countries across Africa, the Americas, Asia-Pacific, Europe & the Middle East to discuss the energy market impacts of the war in the Middle East @IEA will continue to support governments in responding to the largest energy...
Price Shock Escalates to Broad Inflation, Phases I‑II Confirmed
Remember my four-phase framework for the economic and financial fallout of the Middle East War? This latest from the Financial Times is an illustration of Phases I and II in action: what begins as a narrow price shock evolves into...
Renewables Ensure Energy Security Beyond Gulf Turmoil
Once renewables are built, they deliver power regardless of what happens in the Gulf. Energy security and clean energy are the same argument. 🎙️Was on Al Jazeera's Counting the Cost this week on how the Iran war is reshaping global energy. https://t.co/aCqud4oP8x
UK 10‑Year Yield Premium Hits Growth, Treasury
The yield gap between UK and German 10-year government bonds is now nearly two full percentage points ( Bloomberg data below). While global yields are up across the board, the economic implications differ: This "UK premium" creates a bigger headwind for domestic...
Commodities Hit New Inflation High; Fire Lagging Managers
COMMODITIES: as an Asset Class, ramped to yet another new Inflation Cycle High yesterday If your Money Manager is missing this and, worse, Long Treasuries, you need to fire them https://t.co/744Wx24k7A
Hedgeye Signals Bond Volatility Breakout, Review at 9 AM
Big @Hedgeye TREND Breakout for Bond Market Vol that I'll review on The Macro Show 9AM https://t.co/niZaSORuLS
AUD/USD Slides; Short Below 0.7135, Target 0.7050
Macro: AUD/USD weakens after RBA hike; dollar strength & geopolitics. Key: 20-DMA 0.7135 pivot; break risks 0.7050 → 0.6840. Risk: bearish RSI/MACD. Trade: short <0.7135, target 0.7050. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
RBA Hikes Rates Again; Bullock Cautions Stimulus Before Budget
RBA raises rates for a third time this year as Bullock issues a softly softly warning on stimulus ahead of the budget https://t.co/0Bd8Mie9MV via @ft
Taiwan President Defies China, Insists on Africa Visit
JUST IN: Taiwan's president says it won't succumb to pressure over the Africa trip China criticized.
DiamondBack Ramps up Output; Shale Reacts to $80 Oil
DiamondBack Energy, one of the top US shale companies, says it will bring "incremental barrels to the market inmediately." US shale can not offset the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but the idea that companies wouldn't react to >$80...
Imran Khan's Imprisonment Triggers $2B Export Loss
#PAKWatch🇵🇰: Since IMRAN KHAN'S ILLEGAL IMPRISONMENT, Pakistan's exports are DOWN $2 BILLION. Under the rule of PM Sharif, PAK has descended into an economic nightmare. PAK’S MILITARY RUNS THE SHOW = ECONOMIC NIGHTMARE. FREE CAPTAIN PAKISTAN. https://t.co/c9msFFviC5
China, Indonesia Debut Cross‑border QR Payments, Boosting Yuan
SCMP: "China and Indonesia have launched a new cross-border QR payment system, marking the latest step in Beijing’s drive to build a regional digital payments network as it pushes to internationalise the yuan and reduce dependence on the US dollar." https://t.co/NEt62G5jZ7
Rising Inequality Threatens China’s Common Prosperity Goals
1/2 SCMP: "Chinese citizens are facing growing inequality in wages and wealth, constraining the country’s “common prosperity” agenda at a time of slowing economic growth, a prominent economist, Zhejiang University dean Li Shi, has warned." https://t.co/JhNycibuSx
Bond Yields Climb, Inflation Spikes, India Tax Surges
🌍 Global News Update: ⦿ US 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.456%, a 9-month high, with April jobs projected at 60,000, unemployment at 4.3%. ⦿ Philippine annual inflation surged to 7.2% in April 2026, a 3-year high, with transport inflation at 21.4%. ⦿ Canada's...
Urals Crude Doubles, Sanction Exemptions Reveal Strategic Desperation
Russian Urals crude is being sold at around $110 per barrel — more than double its price before the attack on Iran. Exempting Russian crude from US sanctions is either a deliberate strategic move (part of the plan) or a clear...
EU Bans Chinese Inverters From Funded Clean‑energy Projects
SCMP: "The EU has taken its most direct step yet to cut Chinese clean energy hardware out of publicly funded projects, banning Chinese inverters from all EU-funded schemes in a move Brussels described as the first in a series of...
Shenzhen's Retail Sales Stagnate Amid Strong GDP Growth
1/4 SCMP: "China’s top tech hub, Shenzhen, saw retail sales grow by just 0.5% year on year in the first quarter after reporting gross domestic product growth of 5.8% for the same period, casting a spotlight on its unbalanced development as... https://t.co/s3A260dwXx
Indonesia's Q1 2026 GDP Hits 5.6% Growth, Fastest Since
JUST IN: Indonesia's GDP grew by 5.61% annually in the first quarter of 2026, the fastest rate since 2022.
RBA Raises Rates to 2024 High Amid Stubborn Inflation
JUST IN: Australia's central bank hikes rates to the highest since 2024 as inflation remains elevated.
SWIFT Trades Surge; SIPS, Alternatives Rise Fast in Asia
SWIFT $ trades hit a high at 51%. But SIPS and alternatives are growing quickly from a very low base. Global trade risk is evolving at an exponential pace and risk managers need to be alert to the consequences both...
Massive Money Printing Highlights Bitcoin’s Timeliness
Governments have printed more money in the last 5 years than the previous 100 combined. And people still ask if it’s too late to buy Bitcoin
Ceasefire Boosts Iran's Leverage, Leaves U.S. Goals Vague
The ceasefire shifted the war in Iran's favor, suggests @Rory_Johnston By keeping pressure on flows and the global economy without absorbing direct strikes, Tehran improved its leverage U.S. goals are still unclear. That’s not progress...except for Iran. #oil #Iran #geopolitics #energy #markets
Bond Yields Rise, Yet Manufacturing Gains Momentum
Bond yields are rising on inflation fears while factory orders just posted their strongest gain in months and manufacturing keeps expanding. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/ra2hKn68G2
Philippine Inflation Spikes to 7.2% in April.
"Beats" is not the right word in this headline. "Exceeds" is more accurate. Philippine inflation surged to 7.2% in April 2026 from 4.1 % in March 2026, led by higher costs in food and transport the Philippine Statistics Authority said Tuesday....
Philippines' April Inflation Hits 7.2%, Triple Year‑Start Rate
That Philippine April inflation print was nasty: 7.2% - highest in three years, above every single forecast, and more than triple the inflation rate at the start of the year https://t.co/zVK7kPBswQ
Venezuela’s Inflation Still World’s Highest at 505% YoY
#VNZWatch🇻🇪: Today, I measure Venezuela's inflation AS THE WORLD'S HIGHEST at a CRUSHING 505.1%/yr. That's down from a peak of 828.6%/yr on February 4th. YOU WON’T FIND THIS IMPORTANT STORY IN THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA SPIN. https://t.co/WsbHQ4voQe
Strait of Hormuz Turmoil Sends Shockwaves Through Oil Markets
Spoke with CBC's Power and Politics this evening about the chaotic past 24 hours in the Strait of Hormuz and what it all means for oil markets. https://t.co/WgW8feXlpU
Philippines Inflation Spikes to 7.2%, Widening Asian Divergence
The Philippines April inflation rose sharply to 7.2%YoY on rice and fuel price hikes. We had predicted that this would be the most vulnerable country in Asia due to its deficits of energy and food. We expect further hikes for...
We’re Approaching a 2008‑style Housing Crisis
Gives you an idea of how far we are from the 2008 housing / financial crisis
Rates Near Yearly Highs, Slowing Activity but Manageable
Rates are near yearly highs, still lower than last year, but these levels have already slowed things down this year. Nothing too bad, but there is definitely some impact.
Bond Market Flags Risk as 30‑Year Yield Tops 5%
The 30-Year Treasury yield closed above 5% today and it not far from its highest level in more than a decade. The stock market may be ignoring Iran and Inflation, but the bond market is not. Video: https://t.co/2JUqFjVZ49
Iran Strikes UAE Oil Hub, Signaling Heightened Retaliation
In response to the US launch of “Project Freedom” to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Iran launched a drone and missile attack. It hit the UAE’s Fujairah oil industry zone. Iran is LOCKED AND LOADED. https://t.co/R8f939cm7w
30‑Year Yield Breaks 5%, War Sparks Bond Vigilantes
Today, the U.S. 30-year benchmark bond yield pierced the important 5% resistance level, ending at 5.02%. Bonds severely underperform in wartime. With the war on Iran, the bond vigilantes ride again. They will teach WARMONGER Trump a lesson. https://t.co/sNxVUqdYwF
Fed's Dual Mandate Fuels Record Long-Term Rate Surge
Long-term Exploitation of Extraordinary Monetary Policy Tools, a Fed utilizing either side of it's Dual Mandate to justify lower, a lack of inflation, including CPI & PCE understating reality, helped foster the continuation of an incredible LT bull market in...
Negative ERP Signals Stock Risk, Current Levels Near Normal
The current ERP isn’t necessarily worrisome for forward equity returns. It’s roughly on par with the pre-2000 norm, which accompanied an annualized 14.8% rise in the S&P 500. The long-term average rolling annual gain is 8.1%. Greater risk to stocks emerges if the ERP slips to the fourth quartile of historical observations – where stocks historically struggled with below-average forward returns. Prospects for this may depend mostly...