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Global Economy Social Media and Updates
Global Economy Pulse
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Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
See how global government debt reached $111 trillion in 2025, with the U.S. and China together accounting for over half the total. https://t.co/rKkfcrsNdf via @visualcap
"Because workers are paid less than the total value they produce, they eventually cannot afford to buy back the goods they have created. This leads to a glut in the market, falling prices, factory closures, and mass unemployment." Karl Marx was...
India taking market share in almost every global industry, e.g. electronics, machinery and offshore services https://t.co/oP7wSlNcF0
Japan’s inflation eases to 1.26%/yr in February, BELOW its inflation target of 2%/yr. Japan’s money supply (M2) is growing at 1.73%/yr, WELL BELOW Hanke’s Golden Growth Rate of ~6.07%/yr, consistent w/ Japan’s 2%/yr inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY...
The President of South Africa, Cyril Ramaphosa; “Higher fuel prices will affect every sector, beginning the 1st of April we are going to see a spike in fuel prices” “𝗜𝗻𝗰𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗲𝗱 𝗰𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝗹𝗶𝘃𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗲 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗽𝗲𝗼𝗽𝗹𝗲”
The upside to Japan’s risk aversion – ample petroleum reserves The Yen has weakened against the US$ since the Iran war drove the oil price higher, but so too has the AU$. Japan imports most of its energy needs, so a...
In fairness this means the Houthis are also considering not closing the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, guys. https://t.co/ZiiVU0cw8C
As a result of the US-Israeli war on Iran, the traditional '60-40' portfolio of equities and bonds is on track for the worst month since September 2022. US-ISRAELI WAR = NOT WALL STREET'S FRIEND. https://t.co/kWe8ucZedL
This article is actually correct, but gets the context wrong: The true context is the misaligment of Europas and US objectives Europe is focusing on Russia and sees China as partner. However China is USAs enemy, and therefore Europa can’t...
Yes, this is the key question right now. And the answer is No because Europes economy depends on China, but also Yes, because we need American defense, energy, tech and trade. The alternative is Russian energy, Chinese Tech, defense and Trade So...
Oil started it. The Fed can't finish it. And two other headwinds that have nothing to do with Iran Full breakdown in new report 👇 https://www.kurtaltrichter.com/p/iran-is-one-problem-this-market-has
FEDWATCH: “.. the Houthis have entered the conflict by launching ballistic missile attacks ..; their next move could be targeting vessels in the Strait of Bab el Mandeb into the Red Sea .. The oil market, rightfully, is sensing that...
🇺🇸 US inflation keeps rising. As long as the US-Iran conflict persists, inflation will likely stay elevated. https://t.co/LatxByAQYN
the idea that the privilege of the reserve currency automatically guts the domestic industrial base was true when the world was globalizing, there was one supply chain, and the law of one price was intact. Those days are over....
The war in Iran has set off a chain of events, with soaring oil prices driving higher inflation expectations, lower rate cut odds, and a pullback in precious metals.
International Monetary Fund: Global public debt has risen to a record level - nearly 100% of global GDP. https://t.co/H6FXJN78RZ
guy in the future: “So, how serious is this, on a scale of just noise to that time the Strait of Hormuz got closed?”
China's cleantech exports are surging. A couple observations: 1. All of this is from before the US invasion of Iran and current oil price spike. We should expect these numbers to keep growing, especially EVs. 2. US tariffs haven't stopped China's...
Rising inflation and gas prices aren’t the only economic challenges arising from the Iran war. Mortgage rates have risen 4 weeks in a row since Trump started the conflict; the average 30-year rate is now 6.38%. @wsj
(1/2) I recall an interview after the 2008 crash where the late economist Anna Schwartz said she thought the market threw up its hands in confusion and crashed because the government was so inconsistent about which bank they saved and...
Thanks to Trump's war on Iran, Goldman Sachs concludes that the US economy will take A BIG HIT. It's time to start taking the 2nd President of the U.S. Thomas Jefferson's proclamation seriously: "I hold it that a little rebellion now...
$VIX 31. $SPY -3.4% YTD. Brent +47% monthly. 10Y at 4.44%. Gold $4,439. If you're waiting for confirmation that something broke — this is the confirmation. The question is what breaks next. https://t.co/SxUUBm3sBm
Higher average per capita incomes in the US are down to the divergence of the top 10 percent of the income distribution from the rest of the US and the rest of the world. More on this in the Chartbook...
10Y yield at 4.44%. Highest since July 2025. Rates rising while growth fears mount. $TLT sellers and $SPY sellers agree on one thing: neither wants to own the future right now. That's a problem. https://t.co/lYjNri1VOz
Ceasefire hopes faded. Trump extended the Iran deadline 10 days. Brent crude didn't flinch at $112. $VIX held above 30. The market priced in peace and got more war. That repricing has further to go. https://t.co/e3sUJyyL7v
Trump as the grand old Duke of York, who marches oil up the hill and then marches it down again. More on this in the Chartbook Top Links today. https://t.co/SmXQ2Cvd7I
American here, trying to understand: 6 years on, has Brexit had any real upside? Genuine question, please don't crucify me 😅 #Brexit #unitedkingdom #uk
This is why socialist economies eventually restrict capital outflows and then human capital outflows. https://t.co/tWTL8I6DWU
The Iran War has wiped $12 TRILLION from global markets; more than the entire economies of Germany, Japan, and the UK combined. https://t.co/lHkpoJl7xf
As reported by the respected French newspaper Le Monde, EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen considers capping gas prices "a possibility" amid oil shortages. IT'S TIME FOR THE EU'S JORGENSEN TO GET REAL AND PULL OUT A PHOTO OF THE GAS LINES...
The last time we had a supply shock and oil prices rose - in 2022 - Italy and Spain got the ECB to cap their yields to survive and the UK bond market blew up in the LDI crisis. If...
Secretary of State Marco Rubio claimed that the US would have this war finished up soon: “As the Department of War has consistently outlined, we are ahead of schedule. We expect it concluded… in a matter of weeks.” THAT'S BECAUSE THERE IS...
My video for the week ahead: Market Volatility Faces New Test as Liquidity Drops and Data Builds (recorded before Friday's US tumble so even more relevant) https://t.co/fPTls4gx6p
Russia’s oil revenue this month hit a 4-year HIGH. RUSSIA = THE BIG WINNER OF THE TRUMP-NETANYAHU WAR ON IRAN. https://t.co/nMT8IvrNZc
And just like that, a quarter of global LNG supply is offline 🚢 ⚠️ Hormuz/Iran attacks have disrupted deliveries from Qatar and UAE Cyclone temporarily knocks out plants in Western Australia (Nice graphic from IEA’s Greg Molnar) https://t.co/ymJmTrTZGx
Israel’s attack on Iran while there were attempts at “peace” negotiations may have compounded the supply chain and maritime problems that are bordering on supply and economic catastrophe. IMHO
Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu ”Consumer sentiment fell back 6% this month to its lowest level since December 2025. Declines were seen across age and political party. Consumers with middle and higher incomes and stock wealth, buffeted by both escalating...
RBI has directed banks to reduce their holdings of Dollar (USD) positions. • RBI has set a maximum Net Open Position (NOP) limit of $100 million for banks. • This means banks can now hold no more than $100 million...
What was equally intriguing in Friday’s trading was the unhinging of the short end of the curve from the long end. The 2-yr yield fell by 7.4 bps to 3.91% while that of the benchmark 10-yr rose by 1.6 bps to...
Wonderful to catch up with @RaniaAlMashat in NYC to talk about the latest in today’s energy crisis, and particularly the painful ripple effects for emerging and developing economies. https://t.co/2BIKAy4nXD
WTO e‑commerce moratorium may lapse: US/EU seek permanent exemption; some developing states oppose losing tariff revenue. Risk: higher digital trade costs, fragmentation. Trade: overweight big tech. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
“complete loss of confidence” = USD crashes with stocks with bonds. My MONEY GOES HOME™️ warning. A slower crash is what we have now: Higher Oil -> Higher Dollar, Yields, USDJPY -< Lower Equities & Bonds
The Houthis of Yemen have entered the war, claiming the launch of a ballistic missile against Israel. The more important aspect of their involvement is whether they try to disrupt traffic in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, effectively jeopardising Saudi efforts...
Very early on the war I wrote about SaudiArabia’s crucial East-West oil pipeline (see 👇). Now, the conduit has reached its nameplate capacity of 7 million b/d, wit exports from the Saudi Red Sea coast to global markets >5 million...
I’m sure higher energy prices, higher interest rates, and ongoing wars will go a long way in solving the problem of getting mines to produce the metals we desperately need. The world still underestimates the scale of the problem: A lack of...
Note sent to clients. Overall macro synthesis and update based on war related conditions impact and pricing. What we are doing about it is for clients only. Based on all things happening in the world my macro view is...
The US' Achilles heel in this conflict - much as in the tariff confrontation with China a year ago - is financial markets. Those are flashing red as uncertainty mounts. We have lots of skeletons in the closet in private...
Macro: Windsor's slump signals USMCA uncertainty. Key: tariff threats, cross‑border exposure, falling orders. Risk: demand pullback. Trade insight: trim Canada auto-supply positions. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
What better way to begin the weekend with a podcast exploring -- hopefully in plain English -- the economic consequences of the war with Iran. https://t.co/e6xz6fn92u
Many are attributing the fall in precious metals to rising real interest rates. That's wrong. Real rates (red) have fallen. The rise in nominal interest rates (black) is all about break-even inflation (blue) rising. That's fundamentally good for gold... https://t.co/5amZtGPz0B https://t.co/t11fMQc7JV
