Half of Dollar’s Value Vanished: Invest, Don’t Hoard Cash
Over the past 30 years, the U.S. dollar lost 53% of its purchasing power. That’s the hidden cost of sitting in cash due to inflation. Keep what you need for an emergency in cash and invest the rest. https://t.co/WAUUt2KTKQ
US Tariffs Cripple German, Italian Auto Exports, Sweden Holds
The threat of higher US tariffs on imports of vehicles from the EU hits Germany (blue) and Italy (purple) hard. Both have already seen the US fall sharply as an export market since the start of 2025. Others, including Sweden...
US Denies Iran Hit Frigate as Oil Prices Surge
🚨US denies Iranian claim that it hit American warship trying to enter Strait of Hormuz 🚨Two missiles hit a US frigate in the Strait of Hormuz after it ignored warnings from Iran’s navy to halt, state media quote the army as...
US-China Trade
Presidents Trump and Xi meet next week in Beijing. In preparation for that meeting, I visited the largest container port in North America, to get a status update on US exports to China. I also learned about the impact of...
Brazil's Slower Growth Isn’t Due to Market Freedom
Brazil is a large emerging-market country. It should be growing more rapidly than the US. It’s not because it’s less free market than the US. https://t.co/I9aEhKJJE5
Reliable Statistics Yield $25 Economic Return per Dollar
New @nberpubs: "The Value of Reliable Statistics" https://t.co/o7WjZmZn9g "preserving trust in the integrity and quality of official statistics generates economic benefits of about $25 for every $1 spent on the agency’s budget" https://t.co/TLdaYhyJkh
Iran Conflict Nears Tipping Point, Global Energy Strains
The Iran war is approaching a painful tipping point this week. Global energy flows remain in a chokehold, and economic conditions are worsening worldwide. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/8MMrH7Ogev #iranwar #geopolitics https://t.co/aBb9i3to8z
ECB June Rate Hike Nearly Certain, Says Kazimir
ECB rate hike in June is ‘all but inevitable,’ Kazimir says https://t.co/3f8YLT6jId via @Dan_Hornak @mseputyte https://t.co/YDTun4Qfrh
Ceasefire Risk Drives Oil Surge, Boosts Dollar
US-Iran Ceasefire at Risk: Oil Pulls Rates Higher: The US dollar recovered in late turnover ahead of the weekend and has extended its recovery today in holiday-thin trading. Japan, China, and UK markets are closed. The ceasefire in the US-Iran...
Rising Geopolitical Tensions Push Oil, Dollar Higher
May 4 be with you. Middle East ceasefire at risk. Oil and $USD bid. Rate higher. US hiked tariff on EU vehicles and announced withdrawal of at least 5k troops from Germany. Taiwan's prez get to Eswatini despite...
Global Economy Faces Pandemic‑Level Shock Without Safety Nets
Been abroad in meetings. There was an undercurrent to them this year. (More of a riptide) Collecting my thoughts on what I can share. Still processing & recovering from the exhaustion of the changes we are enduring. They are global in...
Only US Markets or Inflation Shift Can Move the Fed
Macro pain, or weakness in asset prices, outside the US won't move the needle. It has to be either US stocks, bonds, or a sustained shift in inflation, pulling the Fed by the nose (all three?). Until then, the slow-motion...
GDP Growth May Mask Inflation and Cycle‑Driven Spending
Is all this anticipated GDP growth really just Business Investment, Government spending, Prices going up (inflation), certain Corporate sales rising on what may just be a cycle top.
US Chip Ban Fuels China’s Homegrown AI GPU Surge
The US export ban on Nvidia chips to China didn't slow China's AI one bit; it is building it. Jensen Huang just confirmed what anyone watching Asia already knew: Nvidia's China market share is now 0%. Gone. How exactly the US...
China Directs Firms to Defy U.S. Sanctions
"China has ordered its companies to ignore US sanctions, an unprecedented act of defiance...." https://t.co/OAdUIaZIyP
Chinese Banks Stuck Between US Sanctions and Beijing Orders
US Sanctions Just Hit a Whole New Level: China's No-Win Crossfire Trap China’s banks are now caught in the sanctions crossfire. Beijing just activated its blocking law & ordered firms to defy US sanctions on its refiners. Comply with US sanctions? Chinese courts...
Hormuz Closure Triggers Global Trade Shifts and Fertilizer Push
The Strait of Hormuz has been closed for 65 days. At around 90 days, the shock turns global. Structural adjustments are on the way: trade routes are shifting, stockpiling is rising, and nations are boosting efforts to produce fertilizer domestically....
EU Trade Policy Needs Upgrade Beyond Naive Eurosclerosis
#tradeXpresso: when you open your @FT on Monday morning and see an article about central bankers worrying about “Eurosclerosis 2.0” and @Trade_EU policy being naive, you wonder whether the next FT article might be about “Trade Policy 3.0”… https://t.co/lGxTVEATfb https://t.co/o7zDOFormA
EU Urges US Talks Amid New Tariff Threat
EU seeks US trade talk after the latest tariff threat, but is ready to respond, top official says https://t.co/dkF47CdZBR via @ocrook @NickHeubeck @europressos https://t.co/YS1g0mV88U
Trump Tariffs Threaten German Car Earnings, Double‑digit Drops
Good Morning from Germany, where car stocks are under pressure after Donald Trump vowed to impose a 25% tariff on European autos, escalating the trade dispute. A renewed tariff push would weigh on earnings across the sector. Bernstein expects headwinds...
Trump Triggers Iran’s Hormuz Closure Strategy, Prolonged Energy Disruption
Trump has put his foot in an iranian bear trap.🐻🇮🇷 They were always going to close the Strait of Hormuz. This was never a side development. It was central to the strategy. Because the objective isn’t just confrontation - it’s disruption: energy flows, shipping routes,...
Inside Fed Strategy: Kurt Lewis Shares Central Bank Insights
In this episode we sit down with Kurt Lewis, Head of Central Bank Policy at Piper Sandler and former Special Advisor to Fed Chair Jerome Powell. https://t.co/N5gUxUSRsB
LNG Exports Hit Two‑year Low as Hormuz Shuts
Global LNG exports continue to contract due to the Hormuz closure 🚢 ⚠️ Shipments declined to about 33 million tons, the lowest level since May 2024, according to ship-tracking data (Still, the lost volumes were partially replaced with new output from...
Erdogan Calls Unity the Region’s Strongest Defense
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: President Erdoğan warned against those seeking to “drown our region in blood by pitting brother against brother,” saying “our strongest line of defense… is our solidarity.” https://t.co/xgcJ3w4Zkb
European Leaders Convene in Armenia Amid Trump Threats
European leaders meet in Armenia as Trump adds more threats — what to watch https://t.co/zP0ljHihk7 via @mcnienaber https://t.co/nQ82ymtYzP
Asia Now Holds Six of World's Top Ten Stock Markets
The Asia Century 20 years ago, just 2 of the world's 10-largest stock markets came from Asia. Today, 6 out of the top 10 are from the region. China's equity market, which didn't make the top 10 list in 2006, is about...
Taiwan Set to Outsize India by 2026, Korea Follows
At this rate, Taiwan is likely to surpass India’s market in terms of size before the second half of 2026. Korea is not far behind Taiwan and could there soon after. https://t.co/Zq7jUioSjt
Brent Holds Above $108 as US Clears StraitBrent Holds Above $108 as US Clears Strait
"Brent was little changed above $108 a barrel, after falling as much as 2.4% at the open, while West Texas Intermediate was near $102. Starting from Monday, the US move was meant to enable vessels that have been stranded by...
Currency Weaponization Forces Risk Managers to Rethink Sanctions
Weaponization of currency. As the global order becomes increasingly fragmented more countries will look to protect their interests from the failing US hegemony. This is increasingly important for global risk managers who need to address how their operations map against...
Global Markets Mixed as Indian Volatility Spikes
Global Market Update: Gift Nifty +107.00(0.44%) 24,254.00(04/05) DowJones-152.87 (-0.31%)49,499.27(01/5) Nasdaq +222.13 (+0.89%)25,114.44(01/05) India Vix +1.0225 (+5.86%)18.4600 (30/04) S&P 500+21.11 (+0.29%) 7,230.12(01/05)
Iran Weaponizes Hormuz to Disrupt Oil, Raise Prices
Tanker in Strait of Hormuz hit by "unknown projectiles" Doesn't matter if it happened or not This is IRGC's MO & strategy You don’t shut Hormuz. You make it uninsurable. Flows slow. Prices rise. Control achieved. #OilMarkets #Hormuz #IranWar #EnergyIsTheEconomy #Macro
South Korea, Taiwan Surge as SE Asia Slows
Good morning, It's day 66 and Iran War and AI Widen the Wedge Between Winners and Losers in Asia. This morning, we got South Korea and Taiwan exceptionalism with their manufacturing activity rising rapidly to 53.6 and 55.3, respectively. Malaysia PMI also...
Sri Lanka's Economy Still Stagnant After 2019 Crisis
Until the currency crisis hit Sri Lanka in 2019, it was growing on par with India. Contrary to reports in the Western media, since the crisis and the IMF’s intervention, the economy has never recovered. https://t.co/HTdlhPOpEm
Fed Clings to Flawed Inflation Metric Amid Rising Prices
The St. Louis Fed now posting Kevin Warsh’s useless inflation metric. That’s how far these guys have to go to justify cutting rates while inflation is picking back up. https://t.co/2DvEMmGuRZ https://t.co/hoSrqX9OFs
US Calls Taiwan Trusted Partner, Highlights Eswatini Ties
JUST IN: The US describes Taiwan as a 'trusted and capable' partner and praises its ties with Eswatini.
Powell: The Last Fed Chair Nominated by Three Presidents
Powell was an Obama, Trump, and Biden nominee at the Fed… the end of era, sadly.
Geopolitical Tensions Drive Nations Toward Gold Safe Haven
Driven by the US-Israeli war on Iran and the impoundment of Russian central bank assets, countries are TURNING TO GOLD as a safe haven that is free from sanctions. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/7J81FozNbI
Powell's Governor Role Preserves Leverage, Safeguards Process
Powell’s term as chair may be ending, but his ability to remain a governor still gives him leverage. That matters because process is protection against capture. https://t.co/zmy1pLw79q
Trump’s Non‑announcement Leaves Markets Unmoved, White House Stuck
Apparently, Trump did NOT announce the Navy will start escorting ships through the Strait tomorrow (even though that is what he posted two hours ago). This might explain why markets are hardly moving on this news ... he effectively announced nothing...
Malawi Ranks 8th Most Miserable Amid Soaring Inflation
In Hanke’s 2025 Annual Misery Index, Malawi ranks as the 8TH MOST MISERABLE country in the world. SKY-HIGH inflation and PUNISHING bank lending rates are crushing households and choking economic activity. https://t.co/GsV7HDeidw
TIPS‑Bond Spread Signals Inflation, Boosting Oil Prices
TIPS relative to bonds are suggesting a higher inflationary world, which it turns out means higher oil. https://t.co/7lvC0M2pIk
US Economy Stumbles: Inflation Rises, Budget Spirals, Growth Stalls
My view on the POOR state of the US economy on @MarioNawfal : "Inflation is up in the US. The federal budget is out of control. GDP growth is flatlined. Forget Trump's propaganda machine, storm clouds are gathering." https://t.co/1DRQ94bBCd
China's Low Inflation, Strong Growth Boost Happiness Ranking
In Hanke’s 2025 Annual Misery Index, China ranks as the 15th HAPPIEST COUNTRY out of 178 countries. This is thanks to their low inflation combined with strong real GDP growth per capita. CHINA = GROWTH EXCEPTIONALISM. https://t.co/1r6CJ23Ozh
UAE Exits OPEC and OAPEC, Widening Gulf Rift
On top of leaving OPEC, the UAE has also left the (far less important) OAPEC, the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries. The rift between Abu Dhabi and Riyadh/Kuwait City seems to be growing.
Kenya's Inflation Misses Target as Money Supply Surges
Kenya’s inflation comes in at 5.6%/yr in April. That’s ABOVE its 5%/yr target. Kenya’s money supply (M3) grows at 11.7%/yr, ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 10.7%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its inflation target of 5%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY = A...
Emerging Markets Will Bear Shortages; West Pays Higher Prices
I am tired of hearing alarmism in the West about food and energy shortages. The reality, while sad, is that emerging market countries will bear the vast majority of these shortages. The West will simply pay higher prices to redirect supply away...
Angola Ranks 12th in Misery, Driven by 20% Unemployment
Angola is the TWELFTH MOST MISERABLE country in the world in the Hanke 2025 Annual Misery Index. Angola can thank a sky-high ~20% unemployment rate for its economic misery. https://t.co/7pgZJosQdj
Venezuela's Hyperinflation Mirrors Its 632% Money Supply Surge
Today, Venezuela’s inflation is 490.3%/yr. That’s the world’s highest. Venezuela’s money supply (M3) is growing at 632.2%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY = MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/mFU1E5Z9TN
Regressive Taxes Hit Poor, Cuts Favor the Wealthy
Tariffs and gas prices work like regressive taxes — the lower your income, the harder they hit. Meanwhile, the Trump tax cuts for high earners are permanent. The "gimmicks" for working Americans? They expire in 2028. Who's the economy actually working...
Working Families Face Lasting Price Hikes Despite Tax Cuts
This isn’t just about who gets a tax cut. It’s about who bears the long-run burden. Higher prices for basics plus temporary relief is a rotten deal for working households. https://t.co/Qtku9wBJjJ