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Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
LNG production in Qatar, normally ~80 mm tonnes, has been effectively OFFLINE since March 2. The new Golden Pass LNG export terminal in the U.S. will add only 18mm tonnes at full capacity. NEW SUPPLY CAN’T OFFSET WAR-DRIVEN LOSSES. https://t.co/tVmip8DsaM
Well, there are a lot of meanings of global reserves currency that go beyond the currency held in formal foreign exchange reserves. But the yuan's share of reserves has actually slipped over the last 5 years 1/2 https://t.co/h07pcXMaYn
Step 1: US and Israel attack Iran. Step 2: Iran counterattacks and shuts the Strait of Hormuz. Step 3: Oil prices soar. Step 4: To mitigate the damage, sanctions are lifted on Russia’s shadow fleet. Conclusion: Good. The ill-conceived sanctions regime is finally falling...
Plenty to talk about when King Charles goes to Washington for a state visit next month: https://t.co/ZAB8zSFGx3
Mortgage rates are lower today thanks to Jerome Powell. Why? Because he put fears of Fed rate hikes to bed during a Q&A session with Harvard students yesterday. Despite surging oil prices, he said “We feel like our policy’s in a...
January: everyone was long rate cuts. Now: hike odds >50%. That's not a rotation. That's the largest positioning reversal in years — and the unwind isn't finished. $SPY -3.4%. $QQQ -4.2%. The price tells you where we are in that unwind. --- https://t.co/mDbRSIwQT2
A month into this war: Iran is still exporting oil & to more customers Iran is making more money for its oil because prices are up Iran has effectively installed a tollbooth to enter and exit the Persian Gulf Russia is making more...
Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid: Inflation expectations have been low because the central bank has previously acted to make sure inflation will stay low. "It is now our job to follow through with policy actions that validate those expectations."
"The regime has lost control" is wrong @EYakoby Iran is allowing more ships through Hormuz selectively It's sorting tankers by friends who pass for free, neutral parties that pay, and enemies that don't pass There may be a tactical uptick in flows,...
"Previously"?? Like in 2015? In 2025, less than 30% of oil imported into CA was from the Middle East. It's been less than 50% of imports since at least 2017.
Well, the good news in all of this, assuming it's actually coming to a close, is it hasn't lasted long enough to do material impact to the labor market. The bad news is we probably locked in stickier inflation which...
Gold rallies on rumors of a potential off-ramp in a war. Markets never cease to surprise me…🤣🤣
$CL WTI pre-market: $101.84. $BNO Brent: $108. Iran demanding sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. That's not a negotiating position. It's a non-starter — and everyone knows it. The war premium is permanent until proven otherwise. --- https://t.co/DwGuXTrsgJ
MOSCOW, March 31 (Reuters) - The Russian economy will grow by 0.8% this year, down from a forecast of 1% a month ago, according to a Reuters poll of 16 analysts on Tuesday, echoing an earlier government announcement that the...
"Unsurprisingly given the Iran war oil shock, consumers’ average and median 12-month inflation expectations surged in March to levels last seen in August 2025, when US consumers awaited more tariff announcements from the US federal government." - The Conference Board...
Forget the Western propaganda and spin. The US and Israel engaged in a war of choice against Iran. Iran counterattacks and shuts the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s 8 important chokepoints. DAMAGED PARTIES THROUGHOUT THE WORLD SHOULD SEND A BILL TO TRUMP...
China's Rare Earth Export Controls Commentary from @Camrjohnson and @pstAsiatech ...excellent comments from Cameron here on navigating China's Rare earth controls...... https://t.co/Ue3q820lYO
Dollar reserves held by the world's central banks rose a bit in q4 -- But the broad story remains one of modest reserves growth relative to the global economy, or the pace of reserves growth from 03 to 13 1/ https://t.co/B7D4KndRLn
The FT has a good article on the recent fall in the Treasuries held by the New York Fed's custodial account 1/ https://t.co/q3XrJ1bvlZ
JUST IN: President Trump says the Strait of Hormuz will reopen “automatically” once the U.S. exits
If you're asking whether 30% recession risk is bad, compare it with the right baseline. Normal is about 14%. So yes, we're still below 50%—but we're also roughly double normal. Seems troubling. https://t.co/2dO5Qjmi3q
china involving itself directly in the business of hormuz strait security is an important unintended consequence of the iran war.
When an empire runs out of its own money, it is able to increase the supply of money. However, printing more money causes borrowing to increase creating a financial bubble. I urge you to watch “Principles for Dealing with the...
The vol controllers are definitely trying to strengthen the Yen here to make the US dollar go lower. They know the USD wrecking ball was at a point it was about to wreak havoc if it broke higher. JPY/USD most important currency...
JUST IN: India’s economy is facing “considerable downside” due to shipping disruptions and surging energy costs
ECB’s Vujcic says the rise in inflation expectations isn’t a surprise https://t.co/2W4QWes7Uu via @jaskuzmanovic https://t.co/QAtXa5k1AS
Hi @Brad_Setser I'd be a fool to argue with you about bofp issues. But what did I say? Are Chinese imports large? Yup. (Could they be larger? Sure but that is a different point). Are Chinese imports stable? Yup. (Might...
china and pakistan release five point peace plan for ending iran war. no mention of us and israel call to restore full passage of strait of hormuz (no iran ability to disrupt/charge tolls). initiative should be welcomed by pretty much everybody.
From Belt and Road to belt tightening: China's neighbours get cold shoulder on energy But so far China has offered only vague statements and has yet to even publicly acknowledge the export bans reported by Reuters and others as it focuses...
China welcomes EU lawmakers' first visit in 8 years as chance to steady strained ties https://t.co/MvadiOAS0R
US won’t allow Chinese EVs from Canada to enter its market, President Donald Trump’s ambassador in Ottawa said, after a January deal in which Prime Minister Mark Carney lowered tariffs on those vehicles Huh?https://t.co/vBvBuGKGqK
Hormuz closed==>global economic collapse If you don’t think that affects the US, you need a lesson in reality @thescooter49
Lagarde called out Bessent on Iran damage during G-7 video talks https://t.co/cpigdXtjAk via @jrandow https://t.co/bVj2AIUzBq
The Fed would like this lower to get wage growth back down to 3% or lower to target 2% inflation.
Macro: staples face margin squeeze from commodities & tariffs. Key: McCormick volumes resilient; Conagra hit by input inflation. Risk: ongoing commodity headwinds. Trade: long McCormick — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Maximum risk-off, says @elerianm This isn’t just an energy shock It’s a chain reaction: price → inflation → demand destruction → instability. Markets still don’t see how quickly this cascades. #Oil #EnergyCrisis #Macro #Inflation #Geopolitics
There won't be a TACO, writes @TheMichaelEvery Stop second-guessing a plan you're not going to be told. If the U.S. loses, the outcome is chaos—or a China-led order. Any questions? https://t.co/N9Cl7ZXvUB
I am also beginning to leg into long bond shorts against a portion of this position to play for a steepener.
In Iran's counterattack against the US and Israel, an Iranian drone strike hit a fully loaded Kuwaiti oil tanker near Dubai. Forget the Western propaganda. The Iranians have plenty of firepower. https://t.co/6X12Z8HDBw
US home prices increased 0.9% over the last year, the slowest growth rate since June 2023. There are currently a record 46% more sellers than buyers nationally. Absent manipulation from the Federal Government/Reserve, prices will come down and homes will...
"In the months that followed, US tariff policy changed more than 50 times, spanning rate increases, rate decreases, new product exemptions, and new product inclusions." https://t.co/qeG5V7fXwy
"Foreign central bank holdings of USTs at NY Fed fall to lowest level since 2012 in wake of Iran war" Via @seaniechaos https://t.co/VIiwJqrZAY
Hormuz now a pay to pass corridor. From being forced to pay a “toll” to a VLCC attacked and on fire, a day in the maritime mess at the Strait of Hormuz. https://t.co/ENyO92nyeS
@jimcramer @carlquintanilla Jim I respectfully disagree with your upbeat assessment (as it relates to equities) of the new strategy to cede control of the Strait. The knock on consequences of this new strategy are broad, inflationary and economic dulling. The policy...
This is something to keep an eye on. Ukraine has been damaging Russian oil export capacity, via drone. The country's seaborne shipments last week were the lowest since 2022, but unclear if it's the start of a longer trend. ...
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Venezuelan bolivar ranks as the WORLD'S WORST currency. The bolivar has depreciated by over 83% against the USD in the past year. VENEZUELA’S TOP PRIORITY = OFFICIAL DOLLARIZATION. https://t.co/AUN4GLdvgF
I don't see any reasonable scenario in which the oil market exits the Iran War in a healthier, more secure condition than where things stood before the war. It's a structural go-forward upgrade to oil pricing, at this stage it's just...
India's Current Account Deficit for the Oct-Dec 2025 quarter came in at $13bn. This includes the "tariff" quarter now, and it's not that much. For the full 9 months of this FY, it's a $30bn deficit. Source: RBI https://t.co/SZ3Ufjjzfz
20+ years ago we were net importers of and oil and gas and therefore we decided to meddle in the Middle East to protect shipping lanes, etc. Today we are next exporters of oil and gas. I thought that would have...
Mexico’s dualistic labour market is weighted towards informality. More on this in the Chartbook Top Links today. https://t.co/ZRjXpKyZBq
