Trump’s Trade Deal Signals U.S. Relinquishes China Strategy
Trump’s Board of Trade Move Signals the U.S. has Given Up on Changing China The U.S. president is set to agree on a new framework for U.S.-China commerce at his summit with Xi Jinping, but the details could prove tricky. Keep expectations low... https://t.co/44WTNVbeN1
Debt Matters only if You Can Afford It
Debt by itself is a lousy guide. A $500,000 mortgage can be manageable or terrifying depending on salary, rates, and future earnings. Same with countries: the real question isn’t “how much debt?” but “can they carry it?”
Britain Tonight: Elections and Live Show Could Shift Markets
TWO BIG REASONS TO WATCH BRITAIN TONIGHT: I wrote the the local elections taking place here, as well as our live show in London. One could contain highly consequential signals for global markets and the other could be a good night...
WTI Crude Peaks Near $120; Bonds, Grains Stabilize
Peak Inklings: $100 Crude, 5% T-Bonds, $5 Corn and Gas, $12 Soy Roughly $120 a barrel in WTI crude oil may be reaching its peak potential, akin to $147 in 2008 and $130 in 2022. Staying below $100 would reinforce the...
Crude Oil Lower-High Pattern Holds, Fueled by US Stocks
Crude Oil Pump-Then-Dump Pattern Appears Intact The crude oil pattern of lower highs since 2008 is being tested in 2026 and looks intact. My graphic shows a top potential determinant for maintaining the lower-lows trend -- the lofty US stock market. Full...
Investors Expect Iran War Shock to Fade Soon
Investors remain hopeful that the supply shock spurred by the war on Iran will end shortly. $USD is softer. It does look as if the BOJ intervened again yesterday but $JPY is flat today. Norway hiked. Mexico to cut...
Norway Hikes Rates 25bps; Earnings up, Inflation Risk Flagged
Norway raise their Interest rates by 25bps. Enjoy the earnings but bear in mind flag 2 due to inflation risk. Monitoring closely. Always getting ahead of the curve with data.
India Hikes LPG Price 48% Amid Middle East Conflict
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: India just hiked the price of the 19kg commercial LPG cylinder by ₹993. That’s a STAGGERING jump of almost 48% since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran. RESTAURANTS AND CATERERS SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR DAMAGES TO TRUMP...
US Tech Imports Surge 110% as Non‑tech Falls
since Liberation Day, US non-tech imports are down 10%. Tech imports are up 110% https://t.co/hEbs6NasJ8
Inflation Fueled by Rapid Money Growth and Low Inventories
WELLS: “.. inflation is too much money chasing after too few goods. Money supply is growing at the fastest rate since mid-2022, while inventory levels are low after three years of de-stocking.”
Iran's Response Could Trigger Biggest Risk‑on Rally This Year
🇮🇷 Iran is expected to respond to the US today on the one-page proposal to end the war. The memo would kick off a 30-day negotiation window on nuclear issues, sanctions, and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Oil is crashing and global...
U.S. Diesel Stocks Hit 20-Year Low Amid Hormuz Closure
U.S. DISTILLATE STOCKS have fallen to the lowest for the time of year for more two decades as closure of the Strait of Hormuz creates a worldwide shortage of diesel and similar fuels. Since the war began, distillate inventories have...
Brent Crude Slides Below $100 on US‑Iran Deal Hopes
Good morning. Brent crude is currently trading below $100 per barrel on hopes for a US-Iran deal (CNBC chart). #oil #energy #economy #markets
Iranian Leaders Remain Silent on Rumored US Deal
Eerie silence from the top Iranian officials here on news reports of a deal with the US...
Global GDP to Flatline, Then Dip 1.25% by 2027
World GDP likely flatlines by Q4 from Iran war economic damage It then settles into a lower trajectory—about 1.25% below today’s baseline by 2027. Happy days are here again #GDP #Macro #EconomicOutlook #RecessionRisk #Growth #EnergyCrisis #SupplyShock #GlobalEconomy #MacroTrends #Forecast
Nifty 50 Poised to Breach 25,000 Amid Easing Tensions
Nifty 50 is showing strong resilience, bouncing back from key support levels as geopolitical tensions ease. With a potential US-Iran peace deal on the horizon, cooling oil prices, could we see the index hit the 25,000 mark this month? Read...
Norges Bank Joins BoJ, RBA in G10 Rate Hikes
The Norges Bank becomes the third G10 central bank to hike rates in this cycle, after the BoJ and the RBA. https://t.co/YsiMv6xS3J
EU Trade Chief Warns Against China Deal, Eyes New Tools
1/6 SCMP: "The EU’s top trade official used her departing appearance at the EU Parliament to pour cold water on the prospect of an investment deal with China, hinting that new weapons for dealing with Chinese “macroeconomic imbalances” could be on...
US-Israeli Conflict Cuts India’s Airline Capacity 22%
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: Thanks to the US-Israeli war on Iran, India’s airlines are getting SQUEEZED. Air India's international capacity fell 22% in April from a year ago. AIR INDIA SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR DAMAGES TO TRUMP & NETANYAHU. https://t.co/gGIU65FEcV
Half of Global GDP Produced by Just Four Countries
The global economy is projected to reach $126 trillion in 2026. Sounds massive. But one detail stands out even more: Just four countries generate roughly half of global GDP. And the U.S. alone accounts for more than a quarter. That level of concentration matters. Because when...
Phase One Deal Failed: China Kept Tariffs, No Price Signals
One problem with Trump's first US-China managed ("phase one") trade deal is that China kept most all of its retaliatory tariffs in place, so its private sector never got any price signals to resume ties with American companies. Something obviously needs...
Asia Now Drives Global Economy, Outpacing West
The Shifting Balance of Power Towards Asia Asia isn't catching up to the global economy. It's running it. The $126T global economy chart just dropped — and the story isn't America's $30.6T. It's this: ↳ China: 4.4% growth — fastest of the...
China’s Bad‑Debt Managers Use Bank Stake Gains to Offset Slump
1/4 Caixin: "The results underscore how China’s leading bad-debt managers are leaning on accounting gains linked to state-backed bank stakes to offset the effects of the prolonged property slump and broader economic slowdown." https://t.co/4pXLE9Y3rM
R100 Buys Fewer Apples: Nominal vs Real Value
𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗦𝗼𝘂𝘁𝗵 𝗔𝗳𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗻 𝗥𝟭𝟬𝟬 𝗡𝗼𝘁𝗲 This R100 today buys me 15 apples, but this same R100 five years from now will only buy me 10 apples. We refer to this as: 🟠𝗡𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗩𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲 🟢𝗥𝗲𝗮𝗹 𝗩𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲 Explained 🔻 —————————————————- 🟠𝗡𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗩𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲 also known as the 𝗳𝗮𝗰𝗲 𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲 𝗼𝗿...
U.S. Rapidly Erodes Soft Power, Alienates All Allies
I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a country lose soft power at the pace the US currently is. They’ve pissed off every single ally.
China’s May Day Sales Surge 14%; Wage Growth Needed
Xinhua: "The sales revenue of China's consumption-related industries rose 14.3% year on year during the May Day holiday, reflecting a further release of consumption potential." That's very good news, but what matter is if it can be sustained without faster growth...
German Factory Orders Surge, Boosting European March Outlook
German factory orders finishing Q1 strongly, adding to decent French IP and Italian retail sales data yesterday for March. Welcome news.
EM Funds Shift to China, India, Taiwan Semis, Fintech
EM funds are pivoting hard: Nomura boosted China & India holdings while cutting Mexico & Brazil due to tariff jitters. Top bets? Taiwan semis and Indian fintech. Defensive growth is the play. Market's a mess, but they're playing it smart....
Kuwait
Kuwait has just been forced to shut down its oil production. If that isn’t bad enough, since the Global Financial Crisis, Kuwait's economy has tanked. Turkey's has boomed. Contrary to WESTERN PROPAGANDA, Iran's did not collapse, prior to the US-Israeli attacks. https://t.co/hAxr8nZzj1
Analysts Ignore China's Stated Economic Woes, Echoing Japan Past
It is strange how several commentators who denied over a decade ago that China has excess manufacturing capacity, low consumption, overinvestment in property and infrastructure, high and rising debt, and large trade surpluses, continue angrily to deny it even long...
US Treasury Secretary to Meet Japan on Weakening Yen
JUST IN: U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent will meet Japan’s prime minister, finance minister, and BOJ governor to discuss the falling yen during his visit next week.
China‑India Shifts Spark Cautious Optimism in EM
Lazard's latest EM commentary is out. Q1 2026 saw key shifts in China and India driving performance. Vibe check: cautious optimism on quality equities. Worth a read for retirement strategy insights. 📉📈 EmergingMarkets
Today's Oil Prices Boost U.S. Economy, Not Burden
"Oil prices are at similar levels to 2007." Truth: We have a long way to go to hit $148/barrel peak oil from 07/08 and on an inflation adjusted basis it was well over $200/barrel. We are far away from that...
EU Stalls US Trade Deal Despite Trump's Pressure
EU fails to finalize its US trade deal despite Trump’s demands https://t.co/GCg7UjA8wM via @europressos https://t.co/vQVg9IZLpW
Wage‑Suppressing Policies Fuel Persistent Global Trade Imbalances
Very good Michael McNair piece on the various confusions in Maurice Obstfeld's latest piece on global imbalances. Investors, business managers, workers, policymakers and even the IMF (albeit kicking and struggling) increasingly understand the adverse impacts of large, persistent trade imbalances...
China’s New 5‑Year Plan Targets European Industry
European industry is in the crosshairs of China’s new 5-year plan https://t.co/vz2eM66YoX via @weberalexander https://t.co/tVtXFUCash
Iran Crisis Highlights Global Oil Supply Security Risks
My panel discussion on @AJEnglish programme “Counting the Cost”, which tackled some key key big-picture questions around oil supply and energy supply security thrown up by the Iran crisis. https://t.co/8wzz9MElfI
Four Nations Account for Half of World GDP
The $126T Global Economy in One Giant Chart Just 4 countries generate half of global GDP. https://t.co/9ddjcZdKyE https://t.co/1YLOp7y7uA
Rupee Hits Record Low Amid US‑Israeli Iran Conflict
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: Thanks to the US-Israeli war on Iran, yesterday, the rupee reached a new ALL-TIME LOW to ₹95.43/USD. It all brings back one of Oscar Wilde’s most famous lines: “The chapter on the Fall of the Rupee you may omit. It...
Hormuz Oil Flows to Drop to 40% Pre‑war Levels.
This is the most important chart of the day @Kpler projects flows thru the Strait of Hormuz to be at only 40% of pre-war levels a year from now. For all of you who have enjoyed criticizing Peak Oil for the last...
Bloomberg Brent Misleads; Real Oil Near $150, Hits Poor First
$110 Brent exists only on a Bloomberg screen. The real barrel is trading closer to $150. There’s already a shortage—but it’s hitting poorer countries first So stock markets don’t care. 👇 https://t.co/b1WsmkK3e3 #Oil #EnergyCrisis #PhysicalMarket #SupplyShock #EnergySecurity #Hormuz #Commodities #Inflation #GlobalMarkets #EnergyFlows
China’s Agency Holdings Drop, Canada and Europe Gain
A little fun with the TIC data -- China's Agency holdings are down a lot the last few years: they are now about 150b v a peak of over 250b. But there is more going on to. Canadian holdings are up...
Extreme Debt Leads Governments to Print Money, Not Solve
When debt levels reach extreme sizes relative to income, governments are left with a limited set of choices. They can cut spending, raise taxes, restructure the debt, or print money. History shows that most systems end up relying heavily on the...
Milei's Fiscal Discipline Stalls Without FX Reserve Growth
Milei's commitment to fiscal balance (aided by a relatively low interest burden) is clear -- His kryptonite has been Argentina's inability to generate a sustained increase in its foreign exchange reserves 1/ https://t.co/yJLGDJnIV8
Only a COVID‑scale Demand Shock Offsets Hormuz Closure
"only thing that could possibly offset the supply lost due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz would be another exogenous COVID-level demand destruction event" https://t.co/PPzI5Mt2Ni
Emerging Markets Set to Outpace Nasdaq 100 Gains
As impressive as the Nasdaq 100's charge is as it pushes fresh record highs, there is another asset class that is looking to outperform the market-cap dense/tech oriented index: emerging markets. Here's the EEM ETF overlaid with the EEM-NDQ ratio:...
Trump Administration Begins Paying IEEPA Tariff Refunds
I've been critical (& skeptical) of the Trump admin's IEEPA tariff refund system, but this is legitimately good news. Much more to do to ensure everyone gets paid, but still... VERY good: "Tariff Refunds Have Started Being Paid by Trump Administration"...
China’s Imports Lag Behind Domestic Demand Since 2012
One important stylized fact about the Chinese economy that doesn't get enough attention -- import growth has lagged domestic demand growth since at least 2012, and arguably since 2007 or so 1/3 https://t.co/K5wsTUcAhf
Credit Card Debt Growth Slows, Disproving Hassett's Forecast
FWIW, the growth in credit card debt has slowed sharply https://t.co/wbA0n3Maew That's not necessarily good or bad, but it does mean Hassett is wrong on this.
War Triggers Market Plunge; Ceasefire Sparks Rally
Incredible. Starting a definitive war with tangible economic consequences led to a -8.5% drop in the S&P 500 at its nadir. And, announcing a questionable ceasefire with inevitable carry over economic throttling (best case) has led to an 11.3% rally... https://t.co/EjAJPCTMjQ