Bonds and Yen Remain Market’s Critical Focus
Just released this week's Scouting the Tape that follows up on last week's bond and Yen discussion. Continue to believe this is the most important area of the market. There is a lot going on here.
Chinese Goods Rerouted Through Asia Dodge $40B US Tariffs
"Increased trade volumes from China to Mexico via intermediary Asian nations last year demonstrated a new path for US-bound goods that were able to avoid steep tariffs — an estimated $40 billion — on imports from China" More tariffs =...
Hormuz Blockade Drives Fertilizer Surge, Threatens Planting
Strait of Hormuz. Fertilizer prices. Hitting countries at what should be planting times. Pending food supply shortages and high prices. Hormuz—a global supply chain disaster.
Fed Holds Rates Hawkishly, Blames Iran War
🚨 FED DAY PLAYBOOK 🚨 3 things we KNOW happen today: ✅ No rate cut ✅ Hawkish hold ✅ Powell blames Iran war for global uncertainty The wild cards 👇 ❓ Does he stay on as a Fed governor? ❓ Inflation worry vs. growth...
US Outperforms, Europe Underperforms: Surprise Gap Widens
US economic data keeps surprising to the upside, while European data keeps surprising to the downside. That gap just keeps growing, according to Bloomberg economic surprise indexes. https://t.co/aOsuCmkgUh
Reshoring Index Stays Negative Despite Trump Tariff Surge
Kearney's annual Reshoring Index, which measures imports from 14 Asian countries as a share of US manufacturing output, "remained in negative territory in 2025 despite a surge of Trump administration tariffs aimed at reviving American assembly lines" https://t.co/AJkVit3Iwx https://t.co/r9GzEb8Wji
Markets Price Oil, Ignore Systemic Supply Chain Risks
Markets are pricing oil, not the system, writes @annerquaye Chips, chemicals, logistics… all exposed. Markets are calm because nothing’s broken yet. That’s not the same as safe. #Markets #SupplyChains #Semiconductors #Oil #Geopolitics https://t.co/ENxhdTgdv5
UAE's OPEC Exit Driven by Saudi Rift
Good read on some of the political context, particularly its growing rift with Saudi Arabia, behind the UAE’s exit from OPEC https://t.co/yn0CJC4TLg
Powell Holds Rates Steady Amid Mixed Economic Data
Fed Chair Jerome Powell will keep interest rates steady on Wednesday as he struggles to parse a bewildering mix of data: rising energy prices, an uncertain labor market and questions over shifting tariff rates. Soon, it will all be Kevin Warsh’s...
World Bank Predicts 24% Energy Price Surge by 2026
Thanks to the US-Israeli war on Iran, the World Bank estimates that energy prices will SURGE by 24% in 2026. WARS = MASSIVE COLLATERAL DAMAGE. https://t.co/s4wF67lMDm
Goldman Sachs Hikes Oil Forecasts Amid Hormuz Shutdown
"Goldman Sachs Group Inc. lifted oil-price forecasts as the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz spurs 'extreme' inventory draws." -BBG
Trump's Hormuz Blockade Threatens Global Supply Chains
Trump. Extend Hormuz blockade. With no care of what it means. What will global supply chains do? And the global economy?
BoC Likely Holds Rates Amid Slowing Economy, Rising Inflation
Bank of Canada meets before the Fed this morning. ZERO chance they hike rates 🔻Spending DOWN 🔻Full time employment DOWN ⬆️Inflation UP https://t.co/HPRy9yMpD7
Chinese EVs Already Rolling in El Paso Amid Ban Push
I covet a Chinese EV. The U.S. wants to ban China’s high-tech, low-cost cars. They’re already here in El Paso. https://t.co/rMpBgCaqPG
Powell's Final Press Conference Could Signal Fed Pivot
Jerome Powell is set to deliver his final FOMC press conference as Fed Chair today, alongside a key interest rate decision at 2PM ET. Markets are on edge as investors look for signals on inflation, rate cuts, and the future path...
Oil Rises Ahead of Powell’s Final Meeting, Middle East Tensions
Oil Prices Advance Ahead of What Will likely be Powell's Last FOMC Meeting (as Chair): There are two dominant issues today. First, the ceasefire in the Middle East continues, but the blockade of Iran is an act of war, and...
Trump Misreads Iran Oil Surge Despite U.S. Blockade
COLUMN: Donald Trump's assertion that Iran's oil industry is about to “explode” shows a misunderstanding of the effect of the US naval blockade. @Opinion https://t.co/j9w99iyoZN
Iran Shuts Hormuz, Oil Markets Wobble, Rial Crashes
🇮🇷 Iran Intel Brief | Geopolitical Brief ─────── Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting global oil supplies and impacting European energy security. The Iranian rial hits a record low of 1,672,500 per U.S. dollar on the open market. EU requires any peace deal...
Iran Conflict Could Tip UK Into Recession, Says NIESR
Protracted Iran war risks pushing the UK into recession, NIESR says https://t.co/IASyXcA777 via @tomelleryrees https://t.co/EB73ovcN1N
Oil Markets Stalled; Inflation Rising, Consumers Feel It First
Talks are stuck, Hormuz is still constrained, and paper oil is catching up to physical reality. UAE policy shifts don’t matter mid-crisis. Inflation is rising—and consumers see it before policymakers do. #OilMarkets #Inflation #Hormuz https://t.co/210C3G49T1
Yen's Slide Reflects Debt, Not Policy, as BoJ Caps Yields
Japan's Yen is the weakest in many years, even though the BoJ this week was hawkish and signaled a hike for the next meeting. Debasement of the Yen isn't a currency story. It's a debt story. As long as the...
OPEC's Market Share Halves, Drives OPEC+ Collaboration
OPEC members accounted for about one-third of global petroleum production in 2024 down from a peak of about one-half at the time of the first oil shock in 1973. The organisation’s declining market share explains the increasing importance it has...
Price Expectations Surge, Near Last Year's Peak
Selling price expectations in the April EC survey are ugly all day long. Clear upside pressures building in the core components on a six/12m basis and in food, the index has, in two months, leapt to within the peak last...
Bond Yields Hit Cycle Highs Amid Accelerating Global Inflation
Globally, Bond Yields continue to ramp to new Cycle Highs (in both the UK and Japan) as Global Inflation continues to accelerate https://t.co/bA1ZMxliBU
Eurodollars Dominate as Petrodollar Fades, Dollar Consolidates
The petrodollar has been increasingly irrelevant for more than a decade @ctindale Eurodollars run the system And as disorder spreads, the dollar isn’t fading, it’s consolidating power #Dollar #Eurodollar #Macro #OOTT https://t.co/lMSN5ySCZ5
Germany's Green Policies and Gas Ban Hurt Economy
Germany committed ECONOMIC SUICIDE when it embraced GREEN MANDESS and then topped it off by stopping the importation of cheap Russian gas. IT'S TIME FOR THE GREEN RUSSOPHOBES TO TAKE THE EXIT DOOR. https://t.co/8eBgeLr9CL
Oil Climbs Above $100 as US Pressures Iran
Oil prices are higher again as the US doubles down on Iran: With news that America's "blockade of the blockade" is now targeting Iranian ports longer-term, WTI oil has followed Brent in trading above $100 (CNBC table below). #economy #oil #markets
Fed Decision Could Spark Bitcoin Surge or Dip
🚨 REMINDER The Fed announces its interest rate decision at 2 PM ET today. Most expect rates to stay the same. Bitcoin is currently sitting around $76k – $77k. If Powell sounds positive, we could see BTC push higher. If he’s more hawkish, price might...
Germany's AAA Rating at Risk Amid €1tn Debt Plan
Good Morning from Germany, where the country’s AAA credit rating is coming under pressure. Acc to a financial plan the cabinet is set to approve today, the federal govt aims to take on nearly €1tn in new debt by 2030....
China Pilots Crackdown on Debt‑laden Zombie Firms
1/9 Interesting SCMP article: "China’s top market regulator is intensifying its crackdown on debt-laden “zombie companies” – rolling out a pilot programme in seven economic hubs to facilitate the forced exit of unprofitable firms." https://t.co/MyTz0VUKAc
Eurozone Inflation Teeters: Spain Down, Core May Dip
EZ inflation for April is now trickling in, with the Spanish number already posting a small downside surprise. Headline increases in France and Germany mind drive a further gain in the EZ headline, but the core could surprise lower due...
Hungary's Central Bank Warns Against Rushed Euro Adoption
Hungary’s central bank governor urged caution on the new government’s plan to adopt the euro, saying that a rushed process could lead to unintended negative consequences for the economy https://t.co/krQSmnDRjv via @mkasnyik https://t.co/9nMNVQwEH9
China Pivots to Service Consumption for Growth
1/5 Caixin: "Boosting domestic demand remains paramount, but the strategy is evolving. Driven by a resilient service sector that outpaced overall retail sales in the first quarter, Beijing is pivoting toward service consumption." https://t.co/eoPwiFskb4
HK Inflation Near Target, Currency Board Proves Effective
Hong Kong’s inflation rate comes in at 1.7%/yr in March, JUST A TAD below its de facto 2%/yr inflation target. Hong Kong’s Dollar-Based Currency Board is WORKING LIKE A CHARM. https://t.co/LLVZcUcIV2
Jensen Huang Fails to Justify Export Controls' Ineffectiveness
Jensen Huang never managed to give a coherent argument for why export controls are ineffective. https://t.co/eF3UUpfWHO
Japan Secures First Oil Tanker Passage Through Hormuz
Japan is engaging with Iran for safe passage of its ships through Hormuz, says PM Takaichi 🇯🇵🤝🇮🇷 A laden oil supertanker linked to Japan (Idemitsu Maru) traveled through the strait yesterday. It's the first Japan oil carrier to leave the region...
US Treasury Cracks Down on Iran's Crypto Shadow Banking
🚨JUST IN Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent just said: “The Treasury Department, through Economic Fury, has targeted Iran’s international shadow banking infrastructure, access to crypto.” https://t.co/yQ6SEjcmVQ
Singapore Ranks #2 Happiest Thanks to Strong Economy
In Hanke’s 2025 Annual Misery Index, Singapore ranks as the SECOND HAPPIEST COUNTRY IN THE WORLD. Low inflation, minimal unemployment, and stable lending rates, combined with strong real GDP growth per capita, drive Singapore's outstanding performance. https://t.co/HHD87uJ00I
AI Review Flags Alarming Surge in UK Yields
FWIW, this AI-generated review of the X universe over the last 24 hours takes my "understated" post on UK yields to a much more alarming level as it draws on other information in its database. #economy #markets #uk
US Inefficiency Drives Costs, Delays, Unsustainable China Ban
US pays 10x $$$ and has 10x delays for lots of products now they restrict imports from China. Self destruct button? GDP so high because of their massive inefficiencies and middlemen costs. Nothing to do with functional capitalism. This is...
China's LNG Imports Plunge to Eight‑year Low Amid Middle East Conflict
DEMAND DESTRUCTION: China's LNG imports are on track to hit an 8-year low 🇨🇳🚢 The Middle East conflict is choking supply of LNG to China. It is also boosting spot prices, discouraging Chinese firms to buy replacements China can instead turn to...
UAE Liquidity Aid Could Cement Dollar Dominance
China probably is short on liquidity If the UAE provides it via US swap lines, that strengthens US dollar dominance, right @izakaminska ? #China #DollarSystem #Geoeconomics #Yuan #GlobalFinance
Shutdown Timeline Exaggerated; Iran's Production Halt Won’t Ensure Defeat
The storage story is real—but the “X days to shutdown” framing is overstated @AyeshaTariq It's a model built on assumptions Iran shutting in production will cause its defeat Stop being played by the propaganda machine #OilMarkets #Iran #Energy #Hormuz #Geopolitics
US-Israeli Conflict Fuels Record Yuan Surge
Thanks to the US-Israeli war on Iran, China’s currency is gaining. Cross-border portfolio flows hit $712 BILLION in March (+40% vs last year), while the yuan’s share of China’s international transactions rose above 56%, the highest on record. CHINA = BIG WINNER....
U.S. Remains
Wrong Oil at Home, Right Oil from Abroad The U.S. imported an average of 6.3 mmb/d in 2024 and 2025 And exported 4.0 mmb/d #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket https://t.co/HjHulwbyTC
Taiwan Tops Happiness Rankings with 9.2% Growth
In Hanke’s 2025 Annual Misery Index, Taiwan ranks as the HAPPIEST COUNTRY IN THE WORLD. This is thanks to their incredibly strong real GDP growth per capita of 9.2%. TAIWAN = GROWTH DRIVEN PROSPERITY. https://t.co/HJcjzI6ur3
Record Seller Surplus Signals Falling US Home Prices
US home prices increased 0.7% over the last year, the slowest growth rate since June 2023. There are currently a record 46% more sellers than buyers nationally. Absent manipulation from the Federal Government/Reserve, prices will come down and homes will...
Valuations Aren't Everything; Bubbles Can Crash without Euphoria
A lot of people have observed some ominous parallels between today's market and the dot com bubble. The biggest difference being valuation. But I'd point out that valuations were not especially high in 2007 in spite of having bubble-like conditions in the...
Only $161 B Left to Refund Illegal Tariffs
Only $161B* in illegal tariffs left to refund**! *plus interest **assuming the government doesn't appeal before June 6
Fed's Inflation Focus Risks Stock Market Amid Iran War
Will the Fed break the stock market as Chair Powell and the FOMC dial up their focus on inflation amid the US-Iran war? #Fed #FOMC #Powell #IranWar #StockMarket #Dollar #Oil #Gold #Macro #Trading https://t.co/ER2QbNR0qa