Three Central Banks Hold, Face Divergent Economic Headwinds
Three key policy meetings this week. 3 Central Banks, 3 Different Problems. 🇯🇵 BOJ (Today). Hold 0.75%. •BOJ’s vote was 6-3 (3 wanted hike) •Weak yen fuels inflation, but raising rates kills fragile growth •Could hike in June 🇺🇸 Fed Resv (29 Apr). Expect Hold. •Powell's last meeting as Chairman •Inflation sticky, growth slowing •No rate cuts in sight for 2026 🇪🇺 ECB (Apr 30). Expect Hold. •Could hike later due to inflation, but economy is weak •Europe imports energy, oil shock impacts
Oil‑Gas Disruption Redraws Global Power Landscape
Disruption in the oil and gas industry (and the states that dominate it) is one of the top stories of the century so far. US, Russia, Iran, UAE, Venezuela. Major sources of geopolitical instability.
Strait of Hormuz Drives Oil Surge Over Russia
Brent is now up 65% from pre-war (blue) vs 16% on a similar timescale in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine (black). The Strait of Hormuz is 3x as important as Russia for global oil markets. Markets are pricing that. Even...
Untargeted Energy Subsidies Raise Costs, Stifle Alternatives
39 countries cut energy taxes after the Iran war. Politically popular but self-defeating: untargeted subsidies blunt the price signals, lead to higher demand, cost the tax payer significantly more and provide less incentive to invest in alternatives. https://t.co/KoAEnXNhOy
US Blockade Pressures Iran as Its Oil Reserves Dwindle
The purpose of the US blockade is to put pressure on the regime and bring it back to the negotiating table. The narrative on Iran is already shifting. We’re going from “Iran has the upper hand” to “Iran is running...
UAE Exits OPEC, Abu Dhabi Takes Lead Amid Dubai Uncertainty
united arab emirates leaves opec. abu dhabi asserting itself now that dubai safe haven status is in doubt.
UAE Signals Major Diplomatic Shift Amid Regional Discontent
Something big seems to be cooking in the Middle East: Multiple Emirate commentators are softening the ground for a major diplomatic announcement. Aside Iran, the UAE has been dissatisfied with several neighbors and its membership in several organisations.
China Offers Tariff-Free Trade to 20 African Nations, US Opposes
China. No tariffs on 20 African nations. Contrast with US and its tariff view. And trade?
Iran Conflict Spikes Electric Car Sales Amid Oil Turmoil
The war in Iran and the turmoil it has set off in global oil markets fueled a surge in electric car sales in March https://t.co/HPt3fEZnNX
Higher Inflation Dampens S&P 500, IG, HY Returns
"Periods of higher inflation are associated with weaker returns in the S&P 500 and the IG and HY indexes, consistent with a policy backdrop of elevated interest rates that restrain risk-taking" -Apollo Slok
Rate‑Hike Dissent Fails, Dollar Rises, Oil Nears $100
Three Dissents in Favor of a Rate Hike Fail to Support the Yen: The markets seem nervous. The dollar is higher against all the G10 currencies and most emerging market currencies. June WTI, which was at $82.60 on April 17,...
Iran Stockpiles Oil as US Blockade Stalls Hormuz Shipments
According to the WSJ, "Iran is scrambling to find new ways to store its oil, hoping to avoid a crippling production shutdown as a U.S. naval blockade bottles up its exports and negotiations to end the war remain deadlocked." This coincides...
Current Admin Greenlights Foreign Sovereign Fund Stakes Un
In any other Administration, approving foreign sovereign wealth funds for up to 20% voting equity interest (along with other foreign ownership) would be unthinkable. https://t.co/C7ITRkiJS9
Bank of Italy Warns Meloni to Curb Spending
Bank of Italy urges the Meloni government to keep an eye on spending https://t.co/JThkJ4EH2O via @Alemrome https://t.co/lSUT3b5d99
USD Firm, Oil Climbs, Yields Rise, BOJ Holds
$USD is firmer across the board. Oil is higher for the 6th session in the past 7. 10-year yields are higher. BOJ left policy on hold with a 6-3 vote but Gov Ueda failed to confirm the...
Trump's Iran Strategy Isolates Italy and U.S. Allies
Trump's chaotic and isolated approach to the Iran War has caused rifts between the U.S. and many of its closest European allies. Topping that list is the Italians. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/AkAWXRScuC #iranwar #italy #geopolitics https://t.co/ZM8pQvXrQU
Crude Oil Expected to Fall, Capping Grain Prices
All Linked Now -- How Long Can Crude Buoy Grains? If crude oil stays elevated in 2026, grain and agriculture prices may as well, but elasticity is typically a primary constraint. My bias is that the December WTI crude future, at...
Unresolved Iran Crisis Makes Two-Year Market Calm Unlikely
The @johnauthers piece was good today. He asks whether surviving the Iran crisis would be like 1998 LTCM/Russia default, a market scare that triggers a subsequent two-year meltup in US tech stock. I guess there are two problems: 1. The Iran...
RBI Norms, Oil Spike, FII Outflows Drive India Slump
Top 5 reasons the Indian market is falling today : 1. RBI's updated ECL credit-loss norms hammering bank stocks (PSU & private banks down 1-2%). 2. Crude oil surge on US-Iran geopolitical tensions, spiking inflation worries & hitting aviation. 3. Ongoing FII...
Germany's €1.6bn Energy Aid Misfires, Repeats Past Errors
Good Morning from Germany, where the govt plans to spend €1.6bn to shield consumers from rising energy prices. That makes Germany the No. 2 spender in Europe – far behind Spain. The problem: measures like fuel rebates are poorly designed....
Wars in Ukraine and Iran Undermine Global Economies
Russia’s economy is bad, reports @TheMichaelEvery The truth is that wars in Ukraine & Iran are hurting ALL economies The myth is clean outcomes. The reality is slow degradation that shows up unevenly Too late for consensus to price it correctly. #Russia #WarEconomy...
Iran's Hormuz Stance Shows Leverage, Not Peace
Iran’s offer is not peace. It’s leverage. Stop attacks in Hormuz, lift the blockade, delay nuclear talks. Iran will not give up Hormuz Trump would be seen as a LOSER He has lost far more than he’s won in this war https://t.co/ROFpujXMUA #Oil #Iran #Hormuz #Geopolitics
ERZ6/7 Reprice as Inflation Expectations Decouple, Credit Tightens
ERZ6 and ERZ7 repricing sharply on evidence from the ECB's CES that consumer inflation expectations are now becoming unmoored from the 2%, completely ignoring the dire BLS, pointing to a sharp, albeit unbalanced, tightening in credit standards and falling credit...
Trump‑Xi Summit Unlikely to Shift Asia’s Geopolitical Landscape
Enjoyed chatting with @cherykang and @MandyCNBC on @CNBC #SquawkBoxAsia from the Singapore studio about my rather low expectations for the prospective Trump-Xi meeting in Beijing, who has leverage on whom, why the United States has lost the plot on how...
Bitcoin Slides Below $77k; Cut Longs, Await Fed Guidance
Macro: Bitcoin dips below $77k as oil surge and pre-central-bank caution sap risk appetite. Energy inflation and AI worries raise tightening risk. Trade: reduce longs; await Fed/ECB guidance. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Iran's Oil Crisis Looms: 6‑8 Weeks Before Collapse
🇮🇷 Iran Intel Brief | Pre-London ─────── Iran's oil storage capacity stands at 12-22 days amid the U.S. naval blockade. The blockade has slashed Iranian oil exports by 70 percent. Strait of Hormuz oil shipments have nearly ceased. Iranian oil production faces a potential drop...
Richer Chinese Provinces Outpace Poorer Ones, Widening Gap
Caixin breaks down first quarter growth by province. With the exception of Guangdong, it seems that richer provinces generally grew faster than poorer provinces, exacerbating economic divergence. https://t.co/AbJFY18BH4
China Plans Another London Green Sovereign Bond Sale
China is considering another green sovereign bond sale in London this year as Beijing looks to expand its presence in international debt markets https://t.co/gUiG7ZPz7n
China Pledges Stronger Protections for Expanding Gig Workforce
1/4 SCMP: "China has vowed to better protect the country’s vast gig-economy workforce, as an economic slowdown leads millions of people to sign up for delivery, ride-hailing and other informal jobs on online platforms." https://t.co/09iuzB0OlM
Gold Poised Near 4650, Buy 4625, Target 4680
Macro: Gold compresses at 4650 pre‑FOMC; real yields stable, USD firm. Key factors: yields, USD, positioning. Risk: FOMC shock breaks range. Trade: buy near 4625, target 4680, stop 4600. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Trump Doubts Iran's Proposal, Oil Hits Post‑ceasefire Highs
According to both the NYT and the WSJ, President Trump is skeptical of the latest proposal from Iran to end the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz (and leave nuclear talks for later). Oil prices are now the highest since...
Extended Iran Blockade Harms Both Iran and the US
The Trump administration says 2 more months of blockade will really hurt Iran But what does two more months do to the US? Damage isn’t one-sided. War compounds both ways. #Geopolitics #OilMarkets #EnergyCrisis https://t.co/1YjxR8MqOt
Hormuz Disruption Causes Irreversible Oil Losses
The Hormuz crisis isn’t about recovery. It’s about what’s already gone. Lost time. Lost barrels. Lost flow. Even if things “normalize,” the damage doesn’t rewind. This is cumulative— and it compounds. #OilMarkets #Hormuz #EnergyCrisis #Geopolitics https://t.co/7nXZORtKPQ
Hormuz Disruption Outweighs Blockade’s Limited Impact
The blockade slows—but doesn’t stop—flows. Friction, not force. Incremental, not decisive. Hormuz disruption hits harder than the blockade ever could. #OilMarkets #Hormuz #Geopolitics #EnergyCrisis https://t.co/eXVY6WU7NY
US‑Iran Stalemate Fuels Energy Shock, Inflation Surge
💯 Every additional day of US-Iran "stalemate" is delivering another crippling blow to the energy and petrochemicals markets, the fertilisers and food sectors, and ultimately, stoking inflation and choking economic momentum. While the two sides play for time, the growth engine in...
Brent Rebounds Above $109 as Ceasefire Stalls
Day 60 of the war -- Brent futures back above $109. Levels are back where they were before the fragile US-Iran ceasefire took effect, around Day 40, prompting optimism over a deal. 20 days of ceasefire have yielded no breakthrough, no...
China’s Solar Exports Surge 50% to Record 68GW
China exported 68 gigawatts of solar technology in March, surpassing the previous record set in August by 50%, according to a report published Thursday by the energy think tank Ember. Fifty countries reported record-high imports of Chinese solar products, with...
Singapore’s Tech Boom Outpaces Hong Kong’s COVID Recovery
Since 2008, Singapore’s economy has SOARED with high-tech manufacturing leading the way. In contrast, Hong Kong’s economy has never recovered from the imposition of its strict COVID lockdowns. https://t.co/iQqPHcJVFT
No USMCA Cuts Threaten Cheap Foreign Cars in US
If USMCA no longer exists or a renewed version doesn’t significantly reduce tariffs on cars and auto parts made in North America, some foreign carmakers might not be able to build and sell the cheaper cars for the US market by...
Heatwaves and Drought Fuel India's Inflation Pressures
India is facing inflation threats from heat waves and below normal rainfall this year, creating new economic pressures for policymakers already grappling with soaring energy costs https://t.co/OJ6zmhmRPI
Officials Warn Two‑month Blockade Could Cripple Tehran's Energy Sector
“Some administration officials believe that continuing the blockade for 𝘁𝘄𝗼 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗵𝘀 would cause significant long-term damage to Tehran’s energy industry” (emphasis mine) https://t.co/ez3cPo2Ydb
Xi Blocks Meta Deal, Echoing CFIUS’s Power
Xi Tests China’s Reach by Blocking Meta Deal That’s Already Done Just like CFIUS has done for many years... https://t.co/iPzbSXPGRE
China’s Responsible‑great‑power Narrative Sways Southeast Asian Elites
Drawing contrasts with the US has been at the heart of China's strategy of winning hearts and minds. But that contrast isn't really about who's more dominant but about who is the "responsible great power." The target has mainly been the...
Tuesday's Packed Agenda: Rates, Trade, Earnings, Confidence
It was a quiet start to the week for scheduled event risk, but things are picking up fast. Tuesday holds: BOJ rate decision with quarterly outlook; Hong Kong trade balance; Coke and BP earnings and US Conference Board consumer confidence...
SNB Balance Sheet Exceeds GDP, Driven by Foreign Holdings
Meet the SNB balance sheet: 110% of GDP, most assets are foreign currency holdings, and there is a unique ratchet effect tied to the persistent disinflationary pressures. Big fiscal implications. Great piece by @BenignoGianluca https://t.co/5U8fazsXqT (h/t @M_C_Klein) https://t.co/BBRmXx74wL
Bab Al-Mandeb Oil Traffic Halves After Houthi Attacks
The Bab al-Mandeb Strait is a strategic waterway just 30km wide and about 100km long, connnecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean. As such, it is one of the busiest shipping lanes in the...
Strait of Hormuz Traffic Vanished After War Began
A reminder ... This is what Strait of Hormuz traffic looked like the day before the war started (February 27). Now compare it to the repost below. @mercoglianos @johnkonrad https://t.co/IS4MCRm6PB
Brazil Faces Loss as Russian Diesel Rerouted to Asia
Russian diesel shipments are being diverted from Brazil to other destinations, possibly Asia. 🇧🇷What would Brazil do?
Economic Hype vs Reality: Numbers Don’t Add Up
90 year old Senators CPI: 3+% Gold: 4.5K Truflation: Inflation is 1%. If gov says higher we predicted that too All Octanes: +$6.25 Food: *cena face meme* Jobs: Lol, lmao even Hormuz: 'who?' Tech stocks: Largest rally since before you were born Axios: 'Hearing rumors' https://t.co/VbAcW2q5Yr
US Absence Derails Iran Peace Talks, Russia Gains Influence
Peace negotiations between the U.S. and Iran have collapsed. Nobody important from America bothered to show up, and Iran is too busy buddying up with Russia... #iranwar #peacetalk #geopolitics https://t.co/zskK6mR85J