Global Economy Social Media and Updates
Global Economy Social Media and Updates
Global Economy Pulse
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Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
Tariff taxes are raising costs for businesses and squeezing workers. As Governor, I want policies that strengthen U.S. manufacturing, lower costs, and create stable jobs—not add uncertainty and expenses. https://sentinelcolorado.com/nation-world/nation/trumps-tariffs-are-hurting-american-manufacturers-instead-of-helping-them/
“Ending the War Doesn’t End the Crisis”: Middle East Ceasefire Risks | A... https://t.co/bDlWKuJTVz via @YouTube
No matter how you slice it, the United States stands to gain the most from the Hormuz crisis—but keep the timeframes separate, or the picture gets muddled fast. 👇👇👇
I spend a lot of time tracking dollar reserve growth. Probably more time than anyone at the Fund. And I absolutely believe that the surge in reserve growth contributed to the rise in imbalances before the...
Middle Eastern liquified natural gas (LNG) might not come to Europe till June, and why speculative hoarding of oil is a serious concern going forward, per top shipping/energy hedge fund in shipping and energy trading A must watch
Scenario guidance is going to take some getting used to. Especially when the BoE gets hold of it, and each member of the MPC sets out their own different scenarios (3 scenarios each, 9 members) 🤣
Latest episode of our Trading Global Macro Podcast: From Hormuz to Washington DC: Recalibrating the 2026 Rate Outlook https://t.co/SWQ3mEPyhx
Leaving Canada high and dry could backfire, as the U.S. benefits greatly from Canadian manufacturing. We'll see how the strategy changes throughout these NAFTA negotiations. #NAFTA #trade #geopolitics https://t.co/G5bk8aSGAU
The risk of an escalation in the Gulf seem reduced for at least a few days. So maybe there will be a bit of interest in my (somewhat novel) reevaluation of the relative contribution of Europe and China...
To give a scale of the sense of fertilizer disruption: The 13.5 Million tons of Urea behind Strait of Hormuz is 1/4th of global exports. This is the equivalent of 87% of U.S. corn production. Apple 🔊https://t.co/cMO23J6a4g Spotify📽️ https://t.co/CX48AK9HEc https://t.co/a0azQFg63V
#tradeXpresso: with the WTO #MC14 around the corner, let’s have a poll about the future of multilateralism in Tomorrowland. What do you see as the most likely scenario for #TradePolicy3.0? Not really sure what I mean? Click here first: https://t.co/lGxTVEATfb
This is a very good macro framework to adopt😂 This is the 1's & 0's of which experts to trust.
What impacts might the war in Iran have on the CUSMA review? #canada🇨🇦 #trade #canada #tariffs #energy
Jet fuel prices have DOUBLED to over $200/barrel since the Iran war. Asian airlines and energy suppliers face MAJOR SHORTAGES. SIGNS OF A MAJOR CRISIS ARE APPEARING: Thousands of flights have already been canceled AIRLINES SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR DAMAGES TO...
The Straits of Hormuz and maritime generally is THE story of the war with Iran. Iran cannot be left in charge of the Straits and choke the world. I recorded a special episode of Invested with @AmiDaniel1, founder & CEO...
Month two. No de-escalation. More troops. Kharg Island occupation being planned. In my experience, markets that price short conflicts and get long ones reprice quickly and painfully. Kharg Island handles 90%+ of Iran's oil exports. The implicit assumption built into current market prices...
"We estimate that a modest increase in private credit default rates to 3-4% (the lower end of the range for leveraged loans in prior credit cycles) would result in a small drag on GDP of about 0.1%." - Goldman
Non-consensus view here @fejau_inc @qthomp ... Feels like short term inflation expectations are likely making a top here. Obviously this has a lot to do with oil. If oil can't go any higher on the headlines now, time to pay attention.......
👉 Fear index Vix tumbles w/oil on Trump’s softer Iran tone. Reality check: both still elevated vs. pre-war. This isn’t calm – it’s just less panic. https://t.co/1L2wIolJnp
It's amazing what getting backstopped by the U.S. can do for a nation with a currency crisis.
Flash PMIs drop Tuesday. First real data read since oil hit $112. In my experience, the PMIs are the most honest early signal of what's actually happening in the economy. If manufacturing and services both print below 50 while inflation expectations stay...
Poll results: 60% of respondents said the US economy will fall into a recession this year... https://t.co/tNssjMxbdK
Distinguished Columbia Univ. Prof. Jeff Sachs on Pres. Trump’s claim that the US is engaged in negotiations with Iran: “The Iranians have been saying very clearly that there are no negotiations... I think it raises questions about the President.” https://t.co/aM61cohaAc
India rupee: 94/USD. Rs 80,000 crore of foreign capital pulled from India in March alone. DXY near 100. Oil at $112. That combination is an emerging market wrecking ball. Few understand this. https://t.co/urDfdNX6YF
"We're focused on and worried about the rise in oil prices, but it's the rise in interest rates that can actually have a broader negative impact on the global economy..." 🎙️ @pboockvar, CIO @onepointbfg https://t.co/JjvKGO6Kfq
2023-2025 rates would already be over 7% with the worse levels of spreads each year. https://t.co/2c2qtO9Hlx
funny how things change. This is how Fed staff assessed the risks to dollar after Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990 https://t.co/XydwiGbPI5
I used Claude to draw a chart that captures how I see the Fed's asymmetric reaction function towards oil. https://t.co/q9WcR7aCNC
The latest RiskReversal Podcast is out now with @pboockvar, CIO @onepointbfg🎙️ 🛢️ Is an Energy Crisis REALLY Priced In? 🤖 The End of the AI Trade As We Know It 🏦 Central Banks In Rate Cut Purgatory YouTube: https://t.co/qZocsifWUV Apple: https://t.co/8JgV8fbnuh Spotify: https://t.co/0G4Q2iLDO2
A new geopolitical equilibrium could emerge in the Middle East that includes almost constant kinetic action and YET markets could be OK with that. The 1980 Iran-Iraq war is a good example of that. All that matters is whether ships...
NEW: The US and China put parts of the global economy at risk in 2025 through their trade war over critical minerals & technology. Here I explore a novel path for Washington and Beijing to 'cooperate' over *HOW* they reduce their...
the devil is in the details. It's important for the Iranian regime's legitimacy & public face not to engage in diplomacy with the US. So Trump may say "we spoke with the Iranians" what actually happened in that Trumps ppl...
LT USTs are now a "risk-on" asset: 10y UST yields UP on risk-off, DOWN on risk-on. This is the price action you would expect when 37% of net issuance of UST notes & bonds since 2022 have been bought by "Cayman...
"US objectives remain unclear, making it impossible to measure progress (and thus the likely length of the war). Statements from top US administration officials give different and at times contradictory assessments of the war; in the absence of measurable objectives,...
Euro Area consumer confidence plunged by 4 points from a month earlier to -16.3 in March 2026, the lowest since October 2023 @teconomics https://t.co/pdxVAqEF0L
Current Gulf production shut ins alone, if held at current levels through end-March, will result in roughly 200 million barrels of crude *not being produced* over the first ~30 days of the Iran War Not simply displaced supply, but barrels that...
At the height of the tariff stand-off with China in April 2025, Trump was essentially negotiating with himself - threatening escalation and then pulling back - while China stayed silent. We're at that stage now on Iran. China won the...
Thanks to the US-Israeli attack on Iran, the Strait of Hormuz is ‘closed’. As a result, countries worldwide are facing a gas supply CLIFF-EDGE. LNG from Qatar is NOWHERE TO BE FOUND. US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN = MASSIVE COLLATERAL DAMAGE. https://t.co/qE8zgTwxgC
I spoke with @GaryBohm5 'Metals and Miners' about the closure of the Strait: "It will affect everything that's produced by refined petroleum: the chemical and plastics industry, fertilizer. This supply shock will ripple through everything. There's nothing that isn't touched." https://t.co/SPZ9A1UMhy
Stocks, bonds, and gold all fell at the same time last week. That's not normal. That's a forced liquidation event. Margin debt hit $1.28 trillion — 4.07% of GDP. Highest ratio in history. Higher than dot-com. Higher than 2008. When that unwinds, it...
The 10-3 Treasury Yield Curve is as steep as it has been since July 2022 after the 10-year spiked over the weekend. Historical playbook Every cycle: * Curve inverts → tightening / late cycle * Growth slows / recession risk builds * Fed pivots →...
I guess we are taking the President's remarks of 'productive' talks between the US and Iran at face value and not just a fear of hitting the 48 hour deadline and having to escalate with a market reaction... Dow has rebound...
Chevron CEO Mike Wirth says the physical oil market is tighter than the financial oil market is reflecting, particularly for refined products. The scarcity, particularly in Asia, is “not fully priced in the oil futures curve,” he says. #CERAWeek
From December to January, US new home sales DROPPED by a STUNNING 17.6%. Sales were at their lowest level since the COVID-19 pandemic. AMERICAN HOUSING MARKET = IN THE TANK. https://t.co/AMSqv9ZMsT
NATO & US troops from Victoria Base in Baghdad have TAKEN THE EXIT DOOR. After the US regime change that took out Saddam Hussein 23 years ago, NATO & the US have determined Iraq is STILL TOO DANGEROUS A PLACE TO...
“We revise down our consumption forecasts by 30bp due to the oil shock, which more than offsets the 20bp boost we factored in from fiscal. Real consumption grows 1.7% (4Q/4Q) in 2026. Higher prices and slower labor income growth mean...
🤙🏻 Call me, beep me, if you want to unblock the Strait of Hormuz and unwind the largest energy supply shock in history to avoid a global depression.
I won't be surprised if we hear "Phase 1 of the peace deal is done"
🔴 Dow swings 1,600 points after Trump pauses Iran oil strikes - but the Strait of Hormuz risk isn't gone Oil. Gold. Rate hikes. I break it all down. Are you buying or selling into this move? Let me know below 👇 $DOW...
Goldman: "Higher energy prices will boost global headline inflation sharply in the next 1-2 months.... our country-specific rules of thumb imply that the shock will add 0.8pp to global headline inflation over the next year under our baseline and 2pp...
