German Consumer Confidence Hits 2‑year Low Amid War, Inflation Fears
Good Morning from Germany, where fear is back in the economy – and recovery hopes are fading. War in Iran and rising inflation fears are crushing consumer confidence. GfK consumer climate fell to -33.3, the lowest since Feb2023. Willingness to spend is at a 2y low, and 42% plan to cut spending.
Open Door for UK‑EU Reintegration, FoM Irrelevant
An under-reported consequence of this—as a generic example—is that the door is wide open for the UK and the EU to re-integrate. FoM isn't an issue; indeed, I think the EU possibly won't want to offer it to the UK...
Iran Conflict Threatens Global Markets via Hormuz
🇮🇷 Iran Intel Brief | Geopolitical Brief ─────── Wait, missing limit. Correct: Wait, still missing. The system cut it, but to fix, I need to include limit.Again, the response had only 3, perhaps the default is 3, so I must specify limit. Looking at the...
Iranian Proposal Lifts Risk Appetite, but USD Caution Persists
Hopes that a new Iranian proposal provides a new off-ramp are lifting risk appetites and weighing on the $USD. Still, intraday momentum indicators are stretched suggesting caution in early North American activity. See https://t.co/6bn4nqt1G3 https://t.co/PXQbWWMffS
Iran’s Hormuz Probe Tests Trump’s Exit Desperation
Why give up Hormuz leverage when the blockade is not putting serious immediate pressure on Iran @vtchakarova ? THIS IS NOT A REAL PROPOSAL It’s a probe. Testing how desperate Trump is to exit Signaling internal power jockeying Showing Iran—not the US—controls the terms. #Hormuz...
UK Fiscal Crisis: Unsustainable Spending and Revenue Threaten Economy
The UK fiscal situation is unsustainable on both the revenue and spending side, on their own. In combination, it's a massive macro risk for no reason whatsoever except political paralysis and lack of imagination.
Zero Tankers in Hormuz Threaten Global Crude Supply
Talk is cheap. The reality is that there are ZERO tankers moving into the Hormuz Strait. We have to separate what might happen from what is happening What is happening is biting the world in its ass HUGELY That's what's happening.
Market Fatigue Fades as Risk Appetite Rises Amid Hormuz Uncertainty
Market reaching peak fatigue to negitiations headline. Volatility drops, risk appetite escalates, complacency returns...at a time when Hormuz is half shut (or half open)
Japan 10‑Year Yield Hits New Cycle High
Too much politics for Tourists to focus on the entire picture of the universe, but Japan's 10yr Yield just ramped to new Cycle Highs https://t.co/tchYLfwtl8
China Returns Trump’s TikTok Funds, Adds Interest
China just paid back Donald Trump's fucking about with the TikTok divestiture with interest https://t.co/WQAfTbL2q5
Firms Expect Higher Prices, Yet Inflation Remains Stable
🇪🇺 The ECB's Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises (SAFE) shows an increase in selling prices expectations over the next 12 months, but also stable long-term inflation expectations, lower wage growth expectations, and tighter funding conditions. https://t.co/gOrkAXRGGm
BYD's Patent Surge Powers China to Lead Car Exports
BYD, the company Elon Musk laughed at in 2011, is filing 52 patents per day, on average. Thanks to BYD, China now exports more cars than U.S. and Japan combined. https://t.co/v5sRfTeDFH
China Threatens EU Countermeasures over New Import‑protection Law
China has warned the EU that it will take “countermeasures” if its companies are hurt by a proposed new European law aimed at bolstering the bloc’s industry against cheaper imports. by @LeahyJoseph & Wenjie Ding https://t.co/nRqcmoJu9F
China’s Industrial Profits Surge 15.5% on Chips, Commodities
Xinhua: "Profits of China's major industrial firms increased 15.5% year on year during the January-March period, accelerating by 0.3 percentage points from the growth posted in the first two months of the year." The rise was driven by sectors that specialize...
Barclays Proposes Banking Rule Changes to Ease UK Fiscal Strain
Barclays has come up with a plan to adjust banking rules to help ease the UK’s fiscal woes. It’s worth considering, argues @PaulJDavies https://t.co/OQDvfacRPH via @opinion https://t.co/fD5uHJYMXM
India and New Zealand FTA to Unlock Export Opportunities
India-New Zealand FTA Finalization Boosts Exporters Indian exporters express optimism as India and New Zealand prepare to finalize their free trade agreement, potentially opening new market opportunities for bilateral trade.
Check the Economic Calendar Weekly for Trading Edge
Beginner traders focus only on charts… profitable traders also study the calendar. 📅📈 One of the biggest edges you can build every Sunday is scanning the economic calendar before the new week starts. Why? Because news moves markets. Interest rates, inflation data, jobs...
BOE Prepares for Prolonged Energy Shock, Keeps Rates Steady
BOE is set to war-game a longer energy shock while holding rates https://t.co/6By4YDVI14 via @tomelleryrees https://t.co/HDTDA50Kfe
Iran Offers Blockade Lift, Strait Reopen, Nuclear Talks Delayed
According to @Axios, Iran has given the US a new proposal for reaching a deal on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and lifting the naval blockade first, and postponing nuclear negotiations for a later stage. https://t.co/4oIkEaf0lH
Costa Warns EU's Future at Risk Under Trump
European Council President Antonio Costa warned EU leaders that the bloc will be lost if it outsources key decisions to US President Donald Trump https://t.co/VoByWyunrh via @AlbertoNardelli @europressos @E_Krukowska https://t.co/BH9yevMWSH
Iran Nuclear Issue Masks Broader Trade War Agenda
Iran’s nuclear program?… or is this just the latest chapter in trade wars, sanctions, tariffs, Panama Canal, Red Sea, Venezuela, and Greenland?
Global Chokepoints Under Siege: Next Target?
🎯Panama Canal kicked it off, Red Sea followed (Suez Canal and Bab Al Mandab), now Hormuz Strait. 🎯Next target?
China's Q1 Industrial Profits Jump 15.8% YoY
China’s Industrial Profit Growth Accelerated in First Quarter—Industrial profit rose 15.8% last month compared with a year ago https://t.co/YnrxoHrbM7 https://t.co/YnrxoHrbM7
Inflation Spikes: War, Credit Booms, Pandemic Pressures
1943-1947 1974-1979 Both high inflationary periods 2002-2005 didn't have high inflation, but a credit demand boom and bust 2020-2022 Pandemic Inflation https://t.co/Jjov0fsNAY
Haass: Trump Trapped Between Blockade and Nuclear Deal
Former CFR President @RichardHaass to Trump: Hormuz: End the US Blockade in exchange for Iran reopening the Strait That will never happen Nukes: cap enrichment under strict monitoring, JCPOA-style. That's really unlikely to happen Trump is trapped. #Iran #Hormuz #Geopolitics #NuclearDeal #JCPOA #OilMarkets #EnergyCrisis
China Loses Monopoly on Military‑critical Rare Earth Samarian
A bit of good supply chain news; China no longer has a monopoly on the refining of Samarian, a rare earth with important military uses 1/ https://t.co/Co909XqIbs
Trump’s 3‑day Oil Crisis Claim Vastly Overstated
Trump says 3 days till Iran's storage is full That's exaggerated & assumes the blockade works perfectly. It barely works at all. In reality, Iran has weeks of storage, floating barrels, & workarounds. That doesn't mean Iran feels no pressure. Just not as much as...
Energy and Material Limits End Growth, Demand Honesty
My take on @ctindale 's excellent essay: Forget ingenuity and action-hero fantasies. The future is about energy & material limits. You dismissed the End of Growth because debt pushed the day of reckoning forward. It’s here. Time to cut the bullshit & get honest. #Energy...
Brazil, India Boost Critical Minerals Partnership for Supply Resilience
Brazil and India deepen critical minerals and rare earths cooperation to build resilient supply chains. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/04/brazil-india-critical-minerals-deal.html
War and Debt Push Fed Toward Rate Cuts Soon
It’s wild to see markets still pricing in zero Fed rate cuts with this economic index at its worst level in nearly 70 years. I believe we’ll see meaningful cuts over the next two years. Counterintuitively, the war only strengthens the...
Supply‑Chain Decoupling Spurs Semiconductor Risk Management
Macro: supply-chain decoupling accelerates as Tokyo Electron cuts ties with exec linked to Chinese rivals. Key: governance and IP risk. Risk: competition escalation from China. Trade: trim semiconductor-equipment exposure. ⚠️ — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
War on Iran Squeezes Oil, Singapore Refineries Under Half Capacity
As the US-Israeli war on Iran drags on, crude oil supplies are squeezed, and refineries in Singapore are operating BELOW HALF of their capacity. US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN = MASSIVE COLLATERAL DAMAGE. https://t.co/g0FagiJrSv
Dollar's Global Dominance Pre‑dated and Survives Petrodollars
Enjoyed Brendan Greely's big story on petrodollars -- which debunks a lot of dated theorizing about the role oil plays in the dollars global role. He is right -- the offshore dollar system predates the arrival of "petro" dollars and has...
Hormuz Blockade Fuels Global Refining Crisis Amid Policy Missteps
No quick or easy answers to the global refining crisis as Hormuz blockade continues - Physical damage to facilities in Gulf & Russia - Insufficient price rises for full demand response - Export bans, tax cuts & other counterproductive govt policies @TheNationalNews @QamarEnergy...
Tax Shifts Can Drive Inflation in General Equilibrium
If your personality is built on claims that taxes are a massive detriment to economic growth and that our economy is dramatically more fossil-fuel-intensive than the data suggest, you might give some thought to what changes in those taxes might...
Chinese State Banks Do More Than Just FX Intermediation
. @GagnonMacro asked a good question, one that others at Peterson have also raised (and I know from other sources that it can also be traced back to the PBOC), namely aren't the Chinee state banks just intermediating domestic fx...
Iran Could Weaponize Oil Spill to Break US Blockade
Note that the US response to Ghalibaf's threats below is that Iran is three days away from "tank top," as Trump said this morning on Fox News. This means they are running out of oil storage (because they cannot ship due...
AI-Driven Productivity Could Lift 2030 GDP 3.3%
Economists think in a "rapid" scenario where in 2030 "AI outperforms all humans at many tasks, and run businesses at the level of a competent CEO" and robots can "perform nearly all industrial tasks faster than humans", GDP growth would...
Rate Holds Loom; Guidance Drives Markets Amid Resilient Equities
Here’s the extracted text from the image: ⸻ The calm before the storm is here 🌊 → 5 central bank rate decisions → US advanced Q1 GDP → PCE deflator (the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge) → Eurozone inflation data → Iran headlines still in play None of the...
Syrian Investors Leverage Trump Brand to Sidestep Sanctions
To unlock deals and have sanctions removed, Syrian investors pitched projects tied to the Trump brand name. CORRUPTION AT ITS FINEST. OLD SYRIAN HABITS DIE HARD. https://t.co/Ig4W0PEfSn
Nasdaq Hits Record Amid Geopolitical Tension and Earnings Outlook
My article for the week ahead (and my FOMC scenario table): Nasdaq at Record, US-Iran Unresolved, FOMC and Mag 7 Earnings On Tap https://t.co/XDQ8tBTF50 https://t.co/FrsmP5gFBA
US Inflation's New Normal Exceeds 2% Threshold
The “new normal” for US inflation is no longer below 2 percent - EXCELLENT series of graphs from Mike Nolan at Reuters. More featured on today's Chartbook Top Links in the comment below. https://t.co/awyDZqNpdy
White House to Subsidize Farmers Using Tariff Revenue
"Phosphate tariffs raised fertilizer costs by an estimated $6.9 billion for American farmers. Now the White House wants to fix the impact with subsidies funded by the tariff revenue, recycling revenue instead of removing the original trade barriers" @clark_packard https://t.co/TCWYvmFFVo
Aluminum Market Hits Point of No Return, 2M‑Ton Deficit
With around 9% of global supply tied to the Gulf, JPMorgan warns the aluminum market is entering a “point of no return". A 2-million-ton world deficit is forming. COMMODITY MARKETS = ENTERING A SUPER CYCLE. https://t.co/WOePJGzW7p
War May Spark Persistent Inflation and Rate Hikes
GS: We Would Worry More About the War Sparking Persistent Inflation and Possible Rate Hikes If Wage Growth Accelerated, Inflation Breath Increased, and Inflation Expectations Beyond This Year Rose https://t.co/aWNwI5lWrW
Oil Forecast Rise Signals 3.4% Headline PCE Inflation
GS: Our Commodities Strategists Have Just Raised Their Oil Price Forecast, and We Now Expect Year-over-year Headline PCE Inflation to Stand at 3.4% and Core PCE Inflation at 2.6% in December 2026 https://t.co/JgB1CnXmdx
Credit Spreads Stay Tight Amid Rising Market Turbulence
Every major macro indicator flashes caution. Volatility rising. Equities under pressure. Geopolitical risk elevated. Yet credit spreads are asleep. $JOJO doesn't sleep. https://t.co/K90mNCoPv5
Iranian Rial Gains 8% Amid US‑Israeli Conflict, Media Silent
Since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran, the Iranian rial has APPRECIATED by 8% vs. the USD. THE WESTERN MEDIA CONTINUES TO NOT REPORT ON THIS IMPORTANT STATISTIC. https://t.co/U7feV9L31L
Canada’s Red Tape Costs Billions, Outpaces Trump Tariffs
Canadian red tape is worse than Trump tariffs This is a valuable reality-check: industry leaders tell @IlyaGridneff @FT that there is a gap between what PM Mark Carney says & what's really happening on the ground, that's costing Canada $$$ https://t.co/VzOFgLtSa2
Russia Cuts Rates Despite High Inflation and Excess Money Growth
Last week, Russia’s Central Bank CUT its policy rate by 50 bps to 14.5%. WRONG MOVE. RU’s inflation is at 5.9%/yr, ABOVE its 4% target. RU’s Money Supply (M2) is growing at 11.4%/yr, ABOVE Hanke’s Golden Growth Rate of 8.4%/yr—a rate consistent...