Global Economy Social Media and Updates
Global Economy Social Media and Updates
Global Economy Pulse
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Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
More evidence of Asian counties performing a LNG-to-coal fuel switch: Thailand has reactivated two coal-fired units that had been mothballed. The switch is important to put a lid on global LNG (and European gas) prices. https://t.co/qqyd5NrZQ8
My March public newsletter is now available, and discusses to what extent the war on Iran may impact the "gradual print" scenario. Enjoy: https://t.co/4hDx5MSKSS https://t.co/tKqORqDF4D
In 1973, US debt/GDP was 31%...today it's 122%. US fiscal deficit/GDP was 1%...today, it's 6% on its way to 8-10% (or more if the war drags on.) Translation: "That 70s Show" will feel like "1980s Argentina with US characteristics."
Polymarket, a large prediction market, shows only a 28% chance that the Strait of Hormuz will open for normal traffic by the end of April. TRUMP & NETANYAHU’S WAR ON IRAN = MASSIVE COSTS. https://t.co/slk6gIZTUJ
It's good to have eyes wide open...just in case Crash Risk: 2008-Type Waterfall Level Is Here Rising oil, yields & dollar are increasing market stress. VIX has a persistent bid. A key $SPX level could trigger either a bounce OR a sharp "2008-style"...
"Iran is going after the petrodollar system" Brother, they've already shut in 10 million barrels per day of Gulf crude oil production capacity. What petro?
The Financial Times’ Katie Martin: “It is hard, in that environment, to pick the market moves that really matter. This week’s wild ride in UK government bonds is, I think, one of them. It is an early warning sign of...
The U.S. is accumulating enemies faster than you can shake a stick. Chinese President Xi SEES AN OPENING. Xi has made a new push the renminbi to be a global reserve currency. https://t.co/qMpgMEp3Fo
I mostly agree w/@biancoresearch here. Covid, tariffs and Iran all had elements of supply shock. Covid's came with a demand shock too so inflation dominated Fed response. Tariffs were 2-sided; Fed first prioritized inflation, then growth. w/oil, will prob prioritize...
1/4 Yesterday I posted the thread below arguing that the market is repricing an inflation shock, not a recession scare. 10-year yields are rising, bond volatility is exploding, inflation expectations are jumping, and Fed pricing has swung from cuts toward hikes. Follow up...
DXY up 3% in a month on safe-haven demand. Oil up 50%. Dollar up AND oil up simultaneously. Emerging markets are getting crushed from both sides. This is the squeeze nobody is modeling. https://t.co/xogAtPGq0m
By what? Giving waver to Putin to sell his oil freely at prices we have not see since 2022? 😉
Price increases since the start of the Iran war... European Natural Gas: +85% Heating Oil: +80% Brent Crude Oil: +54% Urea: +48% WTI Crude Oil: +46% Gasoline: +44% Diesel: +42% Sulfur: +25% Coal: +24% Fertilizer: +23% Palm Oil: +13% US Natural Gas: +8% Iron Ore: +7% Rice: +7%
Joke's on you - anyone that has owned LT USTs for the past 10 years has already had their purchasing power destroyed (ZB priced in gold down ~80% since global CB's stopped buying USTs on net in 3q14 & ramped...
Hong Kong’s inflation rate comes in at 1.7%/yr in February, JUST A TAD below its de facto 2%/yr inflation target. Hong Kong’s Dollar-Based Currency Board is WORKING LIKE A CHARM. https://t.co/Q0L3lNddlP
“Growth is lower, not just for one quarter. It stays lower throughout all of 2026 and all of 2027.” In English: this isn’t a blip. It’s a persistent hit to jobs, incomes, and the economy’s trajectory.
OUT NOW - @JLinvilleFert on how Strait of Hormuz's closure has blocked >30% of world's fertilizer exports & degraded farming economics. Upward fert & food price risk. It's bad. Apple 🔊https://t.co/cMO23J6a4g Spotify📽️ https://t.co/CX48AK9HEc YouTube📽️ https://t.co/qx5Od1DJd1 https://t.co/uA1oP879mc
As a first for me, I'm recommending @paulkrugman as a weekend read/listen. @robin_j_brooks makes it possible with a discussion on the Hormuz shock. https://t.co/aQ64hxAHxb
Distinguished Columbia Univ. Prof. Jeff Sachs on current geopolitics: "In many ways, the US can not compete with China [in both manufacturing and diplomacy]... And I think we all feel it's not a temporary phenomenon but really the end of the...
Iran struck Qatar's gas infrastructure. Qatar is the world's largest LNG exporter. This isn't just oil at risk. It's the entire Gulf energy supply chain. $XLE is at all-time highs for a reason. https://t.co/7TjuVfAelG
3 months. 2 wars. 1 recession incoming. Trump promised to be the peace president. Then he started a war on Iran with no imminent threat. Now the Strait of Hormuz is a live war zone, oil prices are rising, and the...
In 2011, fifteen years ago, I wrote an essay for @TWQgw on the reemergence of an interconnected "historical Asia" instead of the fragmented "Cold War Asia" anomaly to which Americans had grown accustomed. A fantastic essay in Swarajya on the...
With virtually no international support and a strong disapproval by the American public, Operation Epic Fury in Iran might topple Trump's republicans in the midterm elections. The US-Israeli war on Iran has SPUN OUT OF CONTROL AND SPRUNG A TRAP ON...
No idea how CPIs will import this, but I fear the worst. Rationing + sampling distorted by the few remaining live routes, where prices will go vertical. Some stats offices might even have to impute price, which could paradoxically cushion...
Even if this were true (which, naw), the 140 million barrels of Iranian oil on water Bessent cites here would offset roughly one week of Hormuz stoppage. We’re now in week 4.
Funny math. If Dec oil meets futures. The YoY inflation of oil will be roughly 40%. Pick your inflation basket weighting and any feed through to core . Headline CPI direct is roughly 7%. Others...
The global money supply amounts to $144 trillion. Since 2020 alone, this figure has increased by $26 trillion. A vivid reminder of how quickly the value of money can be diluted. https://t.co/elsQDqCL3p
⚠️ Iran threatening to shut down the Strait of Hormuz is NOT just geopolitical noise. It’s the single biggest macro risk in the market right now. ~20% of global oil flows through that choke point. If it closes: • Oil spikes • Inflation rebounds • Risk...
"According to government data, the U.S. collected $115 million through tariffs on menstrual products containing cotton in 2025, compared with just $42 million in 2020." https://t.co/myTChDYcYR https://t.co/PSGFpKlkaO
"World faces gas supply cliff edge as Gulf’s final LNG shipments approach ports" https://t.co/OjcnxXcs8a "China gets 30 per cent of its LNG from the Gulf but has some domestic gas production and can switch to coal-fired power generation if needed." https://t.co/ikbgxbUPhV
IMF First Deputy Managing Director Dan Katz: "China can do more to increase consumption and domestic demand—especially for services—by boosting household incomes and reducing incentives for precautionary savings. That means shifting resources away from industrial subsidies and infrastructure." https://t.co/2Rvhxa5jsN
"To expect it to cave in today... ignores past lessons. And unlike the Islamic Republic, the White House doesn’t have the benefit of time. It needs to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in days or, at worst, weeks." - @JavierBlas...
As Dave Walker, former Comptroller General of the US, and I wrote in @FortuneMagazine, "total [US] federal debt surged past $39 trillion, or 125% of GDP... Despite the federal government's fiscal time bomb, the US Congress and the President remain with...
Here are the links to the weekly look at the global economy and markets—a discussion of a week characterized by both high-stakes developments and an increasingly fragile economic and financial outlook. https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:share:7441107748030693376/ https://open.substack.com/pub/mohamedelerian/p/the-weekly-look-at-the-global-economy-7d1?r=33wip&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true #economy #markets #middleeastwar
🔺 The $2 Trillion Shift: Is Tokenized Money About to Kill Traditional Banking? 💸 By 2030, tokenized money could be a $2T market. But while the tech is moving fast, the global financial map is becoming a "fragmented mess" of rules. 💬...
Threats are flying between the US and Iran, but what matters for oil prices isn't words but deeds. Those deeds are that big oil tankers with capacity of 2 million barrels keep docking at Kharg Island to fill up. This...
Given all the news in the past 24 hours, if nothing new is announced in the next 24 hours, strap in—things are about to get intense. #oil #bonds #economics #mortgagerates #chartdaddy
The $200bn capital boost to US banks. More on this in the Chartbook Top Links of today. https://t.co/Z0naICa1tz
22% of the world’s traded urea, 24% of its aluminium, a third of its helium and 45% of its sulphur come from the region
Energy sector $XLE: +33% YTD Consumer Discretionary sector $XLY: -10% YTD Higher gas prices are expected to reduce discretionary spending. The more you spend at the pump, the less you have to spend elsewhere (travel, restaurants, clothing, etc.). Video: https://t.co/kTI1Olplo7
Sad but true: “Japan can’t cut a deal with Iran without U.S. approval” And that’s why Japanese are protesting now. Energy insecurity in Japan can turn food insecurity can trigger events that US equity, bond, currency market are not pricing in. And Trump’s...
PRICE CHANGES 2000-2025: Massive price increases (100%-300% ↑) • hospital services (+275%) 🩻 • college tuition (+196%) 🎓 • child care 🛝 • medical care 🏥 • housing 🏡 • food and beverages 🥘🥤 Significant price decreases: • TV📺 • computer software💿 • toys🧸 https://t.co/Cu5vmq9OuE
How Do Higher Oil Prices Impact Stock Market Returns? An analysis of historical oil price trends and stock market returns indicates that higher oil prices don't necessarily lead to weaker stock market returns going forward. (Ben Carlson @awealthofcs) This #WeekendReading,...
But it is more accurate -- Before the latest oil shock the really big surpluses were China, Korea, Taiwan and Singapore (more an investment income dollar but ... )
China's Rare Earth Weapon: Inside the "Mineral War" with Tomasz Nadrowski. Read more and sign up to my newsletter here: https://t.co/uDfSXat1Xl https://t.co/MXFQAofK9T
"Quantifying Deregulation and its Economic Effects: A Large Language Model Approach" https://t.co/roqt5w8PzH "Positive shocks to deregulation boost investment, productivity, stock prices, profits, and GDP" 👀 https://t.co/3GEjbPT2Fx
What if Asia gets worried and stops sending petroleum to California. (Where did you think Californians get their gas since @GavinNewsom started closing oil refineries?)
Let’s unpack this: US exceptionalism/hegemony is based on our “security guarantees” which Trump clearly voided for our Gulf Arab allies when he and Netanyahu started a war on Iran (and Lebanon). And Trump also started a trade war with China that extracts,...
Global merchandise trade will slow less this year than the WTO predicted, but risks a sharper downturn if prolonged Middle East conflict keeps energy prices elevated https://t.co/nhU9axrKFm via @b_muzz https://t.co/Vo7S63a3JN
"The Waha market’s collapse underscores a pressing issue in global energy: Even when there’s enough raw-material output, many parts of the world lack the critical supply chains necessary to ship product where it’s needed" https://t.co/SUdaWtbJpH https://t.co/I9cYdXcGNR
