Tariffs on Canada, Mexico Illogical in Hyper‑Globalized Trade
1/3 Putting tariffs on Canada and Mexico makes no sense at all, even though they run trade surpluses with the US. That's because in a hyper-globalized world, trade imbalances are always resolved systemically, never bilaterally. https://t.co/M382OjWzJ2
BYD, XPeng Explore Canadian EV Entry via New Quota
BYD & XPeng to Canada? EVwire brief: Maninder Sidhu, Canada’s International Trade Minister, met with BYD, XPeng, and GAC in Guangzhou to discuss possible EV market entry into Canada under a new import quota system. https://t.co/oWfsY4skR6
Iran Shuts Strait Despite Markets Being Closed
Weird for the Iranians to close the Strait again today. Don't they know financial markets are closed? https://t.co/FumsjlfJjH
China Shifts to Pipelines After Hormuz Crisis
Watch this space. One of the main outcomes of the Hormuz crisis is Chinese focus on pipelines.
Trump's Iran Blockade Tests Strategy Ahead of Xi Summit
Trump naval blockade of Iran ports—who provide oil to China. Will and how will the Iran war and blockade play in his meeting with Xi? Strategy vs reactionary.
Iran Tightens Hormuz, US Blockade Stalls Peace Prospects
Iran reimposed Strait of Hormuz restrictions as US continues blockade of Iran ports. Are there peace negotiations while this happens? Is either side meaningful when it comes to peace? And the global economy?
Iran Attacks Tanker, Re‑closes Strait of Hormuz
Busy and chaotic morning in the Strait of Hormuz > handful of ships make it across the Strait this morning > then at least one Indian tanker reports it was attacked by Iran, forced to turn back > Iran declares the Strait is...
Markets May Correct After Record Rally Amid Optimism
Week Ahead: Dollar and Stocks Due for Corrections?: Progress in US-Iran negotiations and a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon fed investor optimism. The US S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached new record highs, with multi-week rallies in tow. June WTI tumbled…...
Lutnick Criticizes Canada as USMCA Review Begins
An amazing start to the USMCA review "Lutnick Blasts Canada Ahead of Trade Talks" by @AnaSwanson & @MatinaStevis NYT: https://t.co/pvaAvJtL94 https://t.co/ec6R2JH4Rx
Emerging Market Outflows Near COVID Shock Levels
The past 7 weeks of conflict have seen capital outflows from EM that were almost as bad as during COVID, which was a massive shock. I'll talk about this and where we are on the Strait of Hormuz (is it...
US Rally and Dollar Slide Likely to Reverse Next Week
New weekly commentary: US stock rally looks overdone in the near-term and so does the dollar's sell-off. Both could correct next week. News from Middle East may not be as unambiguous as social media posts suggest....
Trump Claims U.S. Has Good News Amid Hormuz Closure
Trump says U.S. has 'good news' on Iran as Tehran closes Strait of Hormuz @CNBC https://t.co/FJEk5lzz69
Iran Shuts Hormuz Strait, Threatening Global Oil Flow
‼️ HAPPENING NOW: Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz again after US refuses to end blockade. Global oil supply route could be at risk again https://t.co/yrGUN6Izcw
Iran Vows to Keep Hormuz Closed Amid US Port Blockade
Iran has rowed back on its decision to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, warning that it would continue to block transit through the hugely important waterway as long as the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports remained in effect.
Emerging Markets' Nonfinancial FX Debt Stays Under 20% GDP
What is remarkable is that the nonfinancial sector foreign exchange debt is below 20% of GDP and around 10% of total debt, down from the levels of around 40-60% for most of the emerging markets. https://t.co/p334pC8XRt
Hormuz Oil Flows Too Low to Impact Markets
Bottom line on Hormuz tanker traffic The Signal: Not enough oil is moving to make a difference Whether the few making transit are sanctioned or not is noise
US Renews Russian Oil License, Boosting Putin Amid Iran War
Having said two days ago that the U.S. wouldn’t renew a general license easing Russian oil sanctions, the @USTreasury did exactly the opposite: renew it. Vladimir Putin keeps benefiting from the U.S.-Iran war: higher prices and American sanctions waivers. Double...
Politics, Not Profits, Driving 2026 Market Volatility
Markets in 2026? They're moving on politics, not just profits. Elections & global tensions are driving defense, energy, and tech stocks. Volatility is the new normal. Time to hedge. Investing
High‑tech Manufacturing Drives over Half of Industrial Profit
People's Daily: "Although high-tech manufacturing accounts for less than 20% of total industrial output, it contributed 32.6% to overall industrial growth. Data for January and February showed that it accounted for 51.8% of total industrial profits." https://t.co/iazDjkrddR
IRGC’s ‘Open’ Hormuz Is Extortion, Not Access
IRGC grants Hormuz permission, writes @Amena__Bakr That’s not “open.” That's a crime family extortion racket. #Hormuz #OilMarkets #EnergyCrisis #Geopolitics #Chokepoints #GlobalTrade #Maritime #RiskPremium https://t.co/yBGb7oTJma
Six Weeks Redefined the Global Energy Landscape
The Six Weeks That Changed the Global Energy Economy #energysky -- via Heatmap News https://t.co/X0yljDlDR2 https://t.co/jb6qgak7hJ
Oil Markets Misread Headlines; Actual Flow Constrained
Markets trade headlines. Reality trades barrels, notes @AlaliQasem “Open” doesn’t mean flowing—logistics, damage, and depleted inventories are the reality #OilMarkets #Hormuz #EnergyCrisis #Geopolitics https://t.co/ApFoZyc4l8
Mexican Tomato Prices Jump 23% After Trade Ban
"Trump ended free trade for Mexican tomatoes. Prices are up 23 percent in the last year." https://t.co/rXKH70uU4w https://t.co/5h1CotBsLs
Urea Prices Jump 87% as Middle East Supplies Halt
Fertilizer flows from the Middle East remain blocked. Urea fertilizer prices have SURGED 87% YTD to $720 per ton, the highest level in nearly 3 years. FARMERS SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR DAMAGES TO TRUMP AND NETANYAHU. https://t.co/8GGpcsbTMb
IMF Forecasts Resilient Global Growth Through 2025
Explaining the Resilience of Global Growth in 2025 from the IMF. Lower tariffs or other variables? More featured on today's Chartbook Top Links in the comment below. https://t.co/54emD8YVH4
No CUSMA Deal Means No Change for Canada
What does it mean for Canada if no agreement is reached during this year’s CUSMA review? The short answer: nothing. #canada🇨🇦 #canada #trade #negotiation
U.S. Indices Rally to Record Highs Amid Hormuz Opening
JUST IN: S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record highs for the third straight session, with Dow reaching its February peak as investors embraced Iran's Strait of Hormuz opening.
Iranian Rial Gains 11% Amid US‑Israeli Conflict, Media Silent
Since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran, the Iranian rial has appreciated by 11% against the USD. THE WESTERN MEDIA CONTINUES TO REMAIN SILENT ON THIS INCONVENIENT FACT. https://t.co/WOududM6s7
Invest Now: Capture Compute, Data, Energy Bottlenecks with DCA
Thoughts? I break down why now is the time to start investing and what most people are missing. We discuss how liquidity shifts, potential Fed rate changes, and trillions of dollars moving into the system could impact your portfolio. I...
Strait of Hormuz: Conflicting Claims Leave Everyone Guessing
The Strait of Hormuz situation is impossible to follow. Is it open? Is it closed? Iran threatens to close it. The US threatens to open it. Wait, now the US says it will close it. Now Iran says it's open....
Clarifying Conflicting Iran War Deal Reports with Hochstein
Today was a head-spinning day trying to understand conflicting reports about whether a deal had been struck to end the Iran war & reopen the Strait of Hormuz. I sat down this afternoon with @amoshochstein to talk through what we...
World Bank Reconsiders Free‑Market Absolutism in New Report
This week in "Nobody Knows Anything" "In a new report, the World Bank thinks better of its old free-market absolutism."
Ships Avoid Strait of Hormuz Amid Open‑Lane Uncertainty
Video shows ships turning away from the Strait of Hormuz as confusion reins over whether sea lane is really open https://t.co/IOus6xH66m
S&P Sets New Records as Oil, Yields Stay Elevated
With an impressive week nowunder its belt, the S&P has done more than just reclaim its pre-war levels. It has registered multiple record highs. Interestingly, both oil prices and government bond yields remain elevated above their own pre-war levels. #economy #markets
Moody's Downgrades Belgium Over Unreduced Debt
Belgium gets downgraded by Moody’s in reproof at failure to cut debt https://t.co/8nsX75i8rj via @maxramsay https://t.co/pgwDrPsc9D
Iran Conflict Destabilizes Eastern Mediterranean Gas Sector
The Iran war has disrupted Eastern Mediterranean gas production, exports, and development, threatened regional energy infrastructure, and increased political and investment uncertainty. /1
Fed Governor Warns Energy Shock Delays Rate Cuts
'One Transitory Shock After Another' Fed governor Chris Waller lays out two scenarios: The strait reopens "leaving me cautious about rate cuts now and more inclined toward cuts to support the labor market later this year." Or it doesn't and the Fed...
Markets Rally on Ceasefire: Conviction or Buy‑the‑Dip?
My video for the week ahead: Markets Rally as US-Iran Ceasefire Extends - Conviction or 'Buy the Dip'? https://t.co/w1MCHHfY2k https://t.co/9RJlM8Up9V
Trump’s Upcoming Tariffs Likely Just Another Sham
Our blog post on the "Section 301" investigations of "structural excess capacity": "Will Trump’s Next Tariffs Be a 'Sham, Too?" (spoiler: probably) https://t.co/ttbowSddG3 via @CatoInstitute
Weekly Macro Review & Preview for Premium Users
Premium Users - Macro Week in Review/Preview April 17, 2026, on the blog and here https://t.co/0ZHWM5Rrf2
War on Iran Pushes US Gas Prices Above $4 per Gallon
Thanks to the US-Israeli war on Iran, prices at the pump have JUMPED by $1.15. The national US average just hit $4.13/gallon. US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN = CREATING AMERICAN PAIN AT THE PUMP. https://t.co/2D7sRK3hnJ
Oil Dips, but Hormuz Ceasefire Keeps Markets Wary
Oil prices are falling, but don't celebrate at the pump just yet. The Strait of Hormuz is "open" — for now. We're 5 days into a 10-day ceasefire. A lot can still change. https://t.co/RUshSF8tJh
Oil Prices Plunge as Iran Claims Hormuz Open
🛢️ OIL & IRAN WAR CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ Crude prices cratered and term structure flattened on Friday following Iran’s declaration that Hormuz is “open” despite the fact that little traffic has actually managed to cross the Strait today. Summary below, link in...
Sánchez Secures Brazil Deal, Expands Anti‑Trump Bloc
Spain signs a deals with Brazil as Sánchez builds anti-Trump coalition https://t.co/1V81yH8orq via @basteiro https://t.co/gbKNGSYkNQ
Kazaks Cautions: ECB May Not Raise Rates Soon
Kazaks warns against assuming the ECB’s next move will be a hike https://t.co/D88xszH8pz via @jrandow https://t.co/wDW8qFxiYT
Rising Storms Threaten Guam’s Strategic Military Role
I don’t usually try to connect climate change to specific local events. The relationship between climate and weather is complex, and it’s easy to overreach. But what’s happening in the Central Pacific right now is one of those cases where...
Emerging Market Outflows Near COVID Levels, Live Stream Tomorrow
I'm doing a live stream tomorrow morning at 9:30 am (ET) with a summary of all the chatter around this week's IMF/WB Spring meetings, including a discussion of this chart, which shows that EM outflows over the past month were...
Gulf Oil Damage Means Two-Year Recovery Even if Strait Reopens
My view on @cgtnamerica on the long-term impacts of the Strait of Hormuz closure: "The fallout from the Gulf situation will cast its shadow for a while. 80 petroleum & refining facilities have been damaged. Even if the Strait opens tomorrow,...
Trudeau Era Sparks $1 Trillion Capital Exodus
The "Trudeau Tragedy": “Between 2015 and 2024, more than $1 trillion of investment exited Canada — the largest capital exodus in Canadian history”
Hormuz Closure Could Cut Global Energy, Drop GDP 10%
With Iran tensions flaring, a Strait of Hormuz shutdown could slash 10% of global energy. That means a straight 10% GDP collapse, no ifs or buts.