Global Economy Social Media and Updates
Global Economy Social Media and Updates
Global Economy Pulse
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Weekly
Tuesday recap
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
the Strait of Hormel remains closed and the price of chili has surged to $200 a barrel
If their GDP drops 14%, do you think Qatar and Kuwait will: a) Slash government outlays (thereby risking domestic unrest), or; b) Sell USTs & US equities “until their hands bleed” to raise USDs to buy needed goods to try to...
At risk of sounding unkind, for the global economic impact, it matters where oil demand destruction happens. The GDP hit — and spillover — isn’t the same if it occurs in a small economy like, say, Bangladesh, than if it happens...
January 2025: "Don't worry about the $2 trillion deficit and the rising national debt. We are going to grow our way out of it with 5% Real GDP." Today: "Wait till next year." https://t.co/D1ZtfYxn0r
Iran's supreme leader says the Strait of Hormuz should remain closed. Tankers are burning near Basra. The market is treating this like a temporary disruption. The IEA is treating it like a structural one. Someone is wrong. https://t.co/VEZoi3Wz44
More supply chain extension of Iran war. China halts fertilizer exports. How does Trump’s trade war with Canada and Canadian potash fit here for US farmers? Which can affect the E2E food supply chain. That supply-inflation loop.
Crude Oil Futures started trading in 1983. The 48% spike over the past 2 weeks was the 2nd biggest 2-week % increase in history. From $67/barrel to $99/barrel... Video: https://t.co/P29a0c5vMR
He puts his name on everything, so let’s make sure his name is on this, too: —> “Overall, it has not toppled Iran’s dictatorship and might have strengthened it. We helped install a younger supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, who may be...
The most absurd number in CPI? According to the US Government, the cost of health insurance has declined 20% over the last 5 years... https://t.co/Iw2M0izZim
It’s hard to see how international countries will cooperate with Trump on keeping the Strait of Hormuz open after 14 months of erratic demands. It’s one thing for Trump to complain about paying for European protection (somewhat understandable) but asking...
The Iran war has forced the cancellation of TENS OF THOUSANDS of flights across the Middle East. Rerouted flights are burning more fuel and pushing ticket prices higher. TRUMP-NETANYAHU = A WAR TAX. https://t.co/xDKppRjcdi
Distinguished military historian Phillips O’Brien on the war in Iran: "[Trump] was boasting about American military power... He thought this would be relatively straightforward, [like] the Venezuela model... Kill the leadership, and get a leadership that is much more compliant." https://t.co/gV29tXCQYl
Gold up. Oil up. Bonds down. Stocks wobbling. Dollar flat. When this many asset classes move at once, the market is repricing the entire macro regime. This pattern has a name: stagflation. The last time all five conditions aligned simultaneously was 1979-1980. What...
Gold up. Oil up. Bonds down. Stocks wobbling. Dollar flat. When everything moves at once, the market is repricing the entire macro regime. That's not a correction. That's a reset. https://t.co/tyjpVcTUuH
UAE's Fujairah resumes oil loadings after attack, sources say. Oil is still expected to open higher when trading resumes tonight https://t.co/PPrPe2zMLy
Goldman just raised US recession probability to 25%. Oxford Economics says $140 oil triggers recession in the eurozone, UK, and Japan. Brent is at $100 and the Strait of Hormuz is still closed. https://t.co/7yjIA43hkG
Take a look at what Israel's Reign of Terror in the occupied West Bank & Gaza has done to their economies. And we don't even have 2025 data, yet. https://t.co/AruQRDwOZD
Australia is lobbying for more overseas investment in its gas resources as the Middle East conflict riles energy markets 🇦🇺💰 https://t.co/GpZPpkrjwB https://t.co/pVWyatVjys
Military historian Phillips O’Brien on the problems the US is facing in executing its war in Iran: "It reveals a lot of the shoddy nature of the strategic planning." https://t.co/qS1gZLapCT
As recession fears mount, remember that stocks bottom ~5 months before GDP inflects. JPMAM https://t.co/R8swcw5iFp
Chatted w/ @TheKEReport this weekend about the outlook for financial markets amid the ongoing war -- and what our quant models are signaling...
FWIW while many are suggesting Fed Rate Hikes and markets are beginning to price that as well. We much prefer 1. Ending RMO 2. Addressing the uneven distribution of reserves by establishing a minimum reserve requirement to protect the high...
3rd month out of the last 4 that the US' biggest export has been gold. Only time that's happened in at least 20 years (& probably ever.) US is de facto net settling a portion of trade its trade deficit...
Mark Carney’s Post-American Economic Strategy Phew. This essay took a lot of work. The argument is simple: PM MarkJCarney has an economic strategy for Canada, it's just not obvious. I try to connect the dots for readers. https://markhamhislop.substack.com/p/mark-carneys-post-american-economic
The supply shock move in Energy prices, fertilizer prices, and food prices IS a Rate hike which slows the economy and is disinflationary to goods and services that are not energy and food. A dual mandate central bank doesn't hike...
Trump-Netanyahu orchestrated dollar dedollarization, debasement & devaluation in full view as collateral damage to their war on Iran, Lebanon, et al. #ByDesignOrDefault
IEA countries have now confirmed their contributions to our largest ever oil stock release This brings unprecedented additional volumes of oil to the market from 16 March onward. However, opening the Strait of Hormuz is vital for a return to stable...
Please find below the links to my weekly look at what has become a much more complicated and uncertain situation for the global economy and markets. linkedin.com/pulse/weekly-look-global-economy-markets-mohamed-el-erian-shp3e/?trackingId=vXKBwDM3QxqdFHY2kfbOrQ%3D%3D&lipi=urn%3Ali%3Apage%3Ad_flagship3_detail_base%3BXcJdDTIXTiGfbxaVzWx6xA%3D%3D https://open.substack.com/pub/mohamedelerian/p/the-weekly-look-at-the-global-economy-372?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web #economy
The US-Israeli war on Iran, is heavily disrupting fertilizer, aluminum, semiconductor inputs, and other key industrial supplies. Supply chain expert Nick Vyas: “We have created equal if not greater uncertainty than during the pandemic.” TRUMP’S WAR = AFFORDABILITY PROBLEMS. https://t.co/zziB6qAr5L
"This month’s attacks on Iran point to a sixth global energy supply shock, but the rise in crude oil prices to date does not represent a shock of the magnitude seen in earlier episodes. At $100bbl, Brent crude is less...
I don’t know how much clearer I could have been in the latest roundup. 1) the price of oil doubled in a week and the Hormuz closure is 100x works for European and Asian markets. Therefore as long as it...
The UK economy showed NO GROWTH in January. No surprise. RUSSOPHOBE Starmer is too busy picking fights with Russia than fixing Britain's TANKING economy. https://t.co/Wz4vL8LULC
The WSJ reports: "The U.S. economy is less exposed to oil shocks today than in prior decades." But, today’s economy shows strain in airlines, farms, autos. Airlines face soaring fuel costs. Farmers face higher fertilizer prices. Rising gas prices threaten US autos. https://t.co/bOpYCs0pCD
Iran war chills the IPO market: No companies expected to price in the U.S. this week
The @wsj on one of the most sensitive prices across the economic, political and social landscape: “Average regular gasoline prices nationally were around $3.68 a gallon on Saturday, according to AAA, a 23% increase from before the war started at the...
The world’s top central banks are about to confront a fresh inflation threat as the war in Iran jolts oil https://t.co/dTDfbxKZsB via @jrandow https://t.co/tBFHewSb2m
I’m really concerned that when people take this one step further and learn that the US is actually selling oil to other countries that the public’s demand for an export ban will become overwhelming.
More than 100 cargo ships are stuck in the Persian Gulf. Nearby ports are packed with redirected cargo. Costs are being driven up globally. NOBODY IS SPARED FROM THE TRUMP- NETANYAHU WAR TAX. https://t.co/EF8fmqKgiV
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng began talks in Paris on Sunday to map out plans for a leaders’ summit later this month https://t.co/ALjOia2Bim
March 15 (Reuters) - Aluminium Bahrain https://t.co/oYsWepGMNg, known as Alba, said on Sunday it had initiated a shutdown of three aluminium smelting lines accounting for 19% of its capacity to preserve business continuity amid ongoing disruption in the Strait of...
Greece' shipping oligarchs fatally undermined the maritime services ban that should've been in the EU's 20th sanctions package. They're loyal only to money. If that means helping Putin, they fall over themselves doing it. No one should celebrate them... https://t.co/LOEwsvkjYG https://t.co/xUJgZVccK2
India used to import 50% of its oil from Iraq, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and UAE (blue). All this oil had to transit the Strait of Hormuz and - recently - this is down to zero. It's this massive hole that's...
Press the translate button. Remember what I mentioned before: The resumption of oil exports form Northern Iraq was forced by the Trump administration. None of the parties are happy, especially the KRG.
I was reading Ziad Daoud and Dina Esfandiary's analysis of how this war will change the Gulf. They argue that just as the 1990 invasion of Kuwait created a deep psychological rupture, the current missile strikes are threatening to repeat that...
🔴Watch oil prices: In past geopolitical conflicts, stocks were negatively correlated with oil. The longer the conflict lasted and the higher oil prices went, the deeper the drawdown, with the worst being -19.3% during the 2011 Libyan Revolution 👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-iea-has-proposed-the-largest-emergency-oil-release-from-strategic-reserves-in-history
USA printing trillions to rebuild Gaza ($17B+ pledged), Venezuela ($100B+ oil), Cuba & Iran. Dollar debasement accelerates → inflation hedge essential. Gold & silver miners: leveraged upside on rising metals, undervalued now. https://t.co/X9WvAtyZxp
COLUMN: While the price of Brent and WTI crudes remain well below their record high, the cost of fuel oil has surged above the 2022 and 2008 peaks. The surge is a big problem for the workhorse of globalisation: the container...
NEW: The US-led peace process in Ukraine is fizzling out because Trump is losing interest and his war against Iran is easing pressure on Russia. “A pause has indeed appeared in the talks. The Americans have other priorities,” Kremlin spox...
Here it comes. Covering : - US Strike on Iran's Kharg Island - Impact on USOIL & trade idea with targets - Why Gold ( XAUUSD ) isn't moving higher & whats next for it - Stagflation update & its impact - US Indexes update &...
In fact the high inflation and run on the pound that caused the bailout were the result of the previous Tory government's reckless fiscal and monetary loosening in a "dash for growth", a banking crisis caused by the Tory government's...
