P/E Drops 18% as EPS Growth Accelerates
Nice charts from Mike Wilson at Morgan Stanley on earnings. P/E multiple down 18% (pretty rare) and EPS growth continues to trend higher. Quite the bullish combo. Thanks @dailychartbook for sharing it in tonight's report. https://t.co/2wvXsU1CWb
China's Tech Surge Outpaces West, Threatening Portfolios
Jason Huang explains how China is likely outpacing the West in tech generally. Well worth watching the full Lex Fridman podcast for the deeper insights whether you are a risk management student, or just a personal investor. This stuff is...
China's March Exports Strong Despite Modest Trade Surplus
China's March trade numbers are stronger than they appear at first glance. Strong imports pulled down the trade surplus, but export performance was actually strong -- last year's March base created a high hurdle for the y/y comparisons 1/ many https://t.co/OmqlCGNNNd
Staples Lagging S&P Signals No Imminent Bear Market
One of the bigger clues we were never headed for a bear market and things were quite contained was the action in Staples. Staples have lagged the S&P 500 on a relative basis since mid-February. If the end was near like...
NVDA Poised for New Highs After False Breakdown
Mag 7 is coming back, just as everyone couldn't get rid of those names fast enough to buy Staples at 25x. Seriously, that happened just a couple weeks ago. Nice one from @scottcharts in his report this AM that shows NVDA...
Stable Breadth and Calm Credit Spreads Signal Near New Highs
Many are wondering how stocks could be one good day away from new highs again. There have been many clues things weren't as bad as they were telling us, but my two favorites are A/D lines and credit spreads. Breadth never broke...
Rising Chinese Imports Squeeze Margins, Price Hikes Looming
China imports rose +23%YoY for Q1 2026 and March rose 28%YoY. Meanwhile, exports slowed to 2.5%YoY. In other words, Asia terms of trade is deteriorating and even is supposedly immune but you can see from PPI and now imports that costs...
Media Misstates Rial, Actually Up 8% Since War
Since Trump's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, frequent media reports indicate that the value of the rial has plunged. WRONG. Today, the rial fell just 0.3% vs the USD. Since the US-Israeli war on Iran, the rial has gained 8%...
Analysts Forecast S&P Earnings Double 30‑Year Average
Wall Street analysts are projecting S&P 500 earnings growth at double the 30-year average. They're more bullish than the bulls. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/F5lhKKAzl8
WM Senibong IPO: Bet on Singapore’s Land Scarcity
The upcoming RM500 million IPO of WM Senibong isn't a signal of Malaysia's domestic property strength—it's a massive, coordinated bet on Singapore's shrinking land space. While the headlines focus on the target valuation of more than RM2 billion, there's a...
TLT Trading Volume Hits Three-Year Low, Signaling Waning Bond Interest
TLT is a good proxy for bond market interest. And interest (volume) is now at a 3+ year low. * $TLT's volume today was 12.720M shares, the lowest daily volume since January 2023 (and this INCLUDES holidays) * The 5-day average volume...
Weekly Technical Patterns Highlight Diverse Short‑Term Strength Leaders
List of short term relative strength leaders (quite a diversity of industries, not just semis). Study the weekly patterns that are technical drivers with these: HOG, STT, SPG, INTC (most all semis), ALAB, MRVL, AMZN, PCAR, CMI, KMX, TEL,...
Dated vs Prompt Brent Futures Spread Widening
Dated Brent crude vs prompt Brent futures Normally pretty tight, but not right now. Mind the gap. https://t.co/sTrTsmJpQs
Super‑El Niño 2026 Threatens Asian Equity Markets
A super-El Niño is projected for 2026. This will have serious consequences for Asian equities: https://t.co/pmx3AfkBgQ
Goldman Predicts Modest 2026 Price Rise, Many Regions Fall
Goldman Sachs' latest forecast expects U.S. single-family home prices, as measured by Case-Shiller, to rise +0.7% in calendar year 2026 In that type of environment, around 35%-45% of regional housing market post outright annual nominal declines https://t.co/D37QmxUgc9
Home Sales Plummet as Supply Peaks, Condos Hit Record Low
Single-Family Home Sales Drop Further into Deepfreeze, Supply Hits 10-Year High, Condo Sales Plunge to Record Low March was a lousy beginning of spring selling season. But mortgage rates ticked up only modestly. https://t.co/B5wK4sU0lw https://t.co/jYisYhV9je
North Korean Won Plummets 62%, World's 2nd Worst Currency
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the North Korean won ranks as the WORLD'S 2ND WORST CURRENCY. The won has depreciated by 62% against the USD over the past year. THE COLLAPSE OF THE WON = THE WORLD'S MOST UNDERREPORTED CURRENCY STORY. https://t.co/dxHRFaYUhS
Four Metrics to Identify Truly Cheap Stocks
Someone on r/stocks asked "what's the best way to tell if a stock is actually cheap?" Quick framework I use: - P/E below sector average (not just "low P/E") - Revenue growing >10% annually - Insiders buying on open market - Debt under 3x EBITDA -...
Small Fees Turn $10k Into $180k Difference
This chart shows the growth of $10k over 50 years with a 7% return vs a 7% return minus a 2% fee (high AUM, fees, etc) Difference is ~$180k on just $10k initial investment Please pay attention to fees
Hormuz Blockade Hits Malaysian SMEs With Triple Cost Surge
The Hormuz blockade is NOT a Middle East story for Malaysian SMEs. It’s an input cost problem on top of one you’re already managing. Most SME supply chains price raw materials in USD. When oil spikes, freight follows. When global risk...
Breakaway Momentum Requires 2070 Net Advances Tomorrow
The market has a chance to generate Breakaway Momentum -- which I believe is the Best Breadth Thrust Of Them All -- tomorrow. But it will take 2070 net advances for it to do so; we then lose March 30th's...
Iran Conflict Boosts Copper Demand Amid Chile Production Dip
Chile — the Saudi Arabia of copper — is already seeing production roll over before any 2nd-order war effects. The implications of the Iran conflict for the mining industry are being underappreciated, despite the severity of the situation. This dynamic is...
US Housing Sales Plummet, Prices Still Out of Reach
The U.S. Housing Market is in a full-fledged depression. Existing sales in March just hit their 2nd lowest level ever for the month, behind only 2009. Not only that - sales volumes are down 25% from pre-pandemic norms and continue to...
Cautious Approach Prioritizes China Delays and Q2 Plans
Caution Beats Conviction 💫Are We There Yet? 💫Waiting On China 💫Big Level On Deck 💫The Week Ahead & Q2 Plans https://t.co/yIsx9u9K0b
China Expands Extraterritorial Reach with New Regulation
A little ironic, since China has itself is applying its own laws and regulations extraterritorially. But this seems significant to me as another tool in Beijing's arsenal: 中华人民共和国国务院令 第835号: 中华人民共和国反外国不当域外管辖条例.https://t.co/T6FFDqCYKN
Aluminum Peaks at Four-Year High Amid Geopolitical Tensions
Aluminum hit a new four-year high as Middle East tensions, higher oil prices, and supply fears lifted metals. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/04/aluminum-four-year-high-signals-rising.html
Choose Early Curiosity Over Waiting for Proof
A bias I've never been able to break is finding the energy/enthusiasm to do work on companies multiple people are already talking about publicly. It's probably hurt me over the years. But I do think a big part of this...
Exploring Emerging Electrification Opportunities From Personal Experience
This was a fun discussion on what I've been owning for the past few years but the important new electrification story opportunities https://t.co/r9i05c4jwy
Inventory Shift: Sun Belt Stabilizes, Northeast Declines, Rates Under 6.25%
2026.... Think 2023 data Except that spreads are much lower, we have a lot of rate cuts in the system. Inventory is higher, but hard comps for inventory growth until mid-June. Housing shifted in Mid June of 2025. Look at...
ET: High‑Yield Stock with 14% YTD Gain
I listed $ET as one of my top high yield picks heading into 2026. YTD Gain: 14.41% Analyst Upside: 17.6% Dividend Yield: 7% 5 YR Dividend CAGR: 7.69% This one still has upside.
Hormuz Closure Could Add 0.8% Core Inflation
Economists at the Dallas Fed try to model the effects on PCE inflation of a one-, two-, or three-quarter disruption of oil shipping through the Strait of Hormuz The DSGE model projects WTI prices peaking at $110, $132, or $167 per...
Powerful Malaysian Tycoon Controls Key Assets, Still Unknown
One man controls Malaysia’s rice supply, national car, biggest port operator, and a major gas utility. His company is quietly preparing for a $7 billion listing. Yet, he remains a mystery to the average Malaysian.
S&P 500 Recovers Fully, Likely Bottomed for 2026
S&P 500 has erased all its losses since the US-Iran conflict and may have bottomed for 2026.
Homebuilders Bet on Growth Markets Amid Housing Volatility
Despite housing market choppiness why giant homebuilders are sticking long-term with growth markets There's a strong relationship between population growth & single-family permitting. High building activity is largely concentrated in growth markets https://t.co/zwEuUTYf0H
China May Pressure Iran to Reopen Strait Amid Oil Shortage
Assuming Iran has no intention of conceding, and Israel has no contention of conceding, and Trump will claim victory no matter what… what are Vegas odds China will need to pressure Iran to open the strait and if so by...
SPX Bounce Turns Key Level Into Support, Continuation Likely
SPX: Even bulls didn't expect this. Once the price bounced from the daily support zone of 6,786, it began gaining traction, then the key daily level of 6,823 flipped to support. With the 100DMA now recovered, the move suggests...
Stocks Rally on Ceasefire Hopes; Commodities Stay Cautious
Stock markets and the US dollar are painting a rosy picture, with traders seemingly seeing a ceasefire heralding the end of the US-Iran war. Bonds, gold, and oil prices are telling a different story. #IranWar #StockMarket #gold #oil #macro #trading https://t.co/wLRi4EJNxA
Monday QQQ Volatility Beats SPY: Track Daily Percentages
Day trading today inside TBL The QQQ live trade as well as teaching members a few key lessons regarding how to day trade this specific instrument Things to remember ✅ Monday most volatile day of the week ✅ Qs much...
Executives View $100 Oil as Temporary Peak, Not Baseline
Most of the America oil & gas executives at conference last week I spoke with shrugged the current price as a short term development, as the market always finds a way. They spoke like it was almost a distraction to...
April VIX Futures Will Mirror Spot Until Expiry
Monthly public service announcement. The April VIX futures contract will expire Wednesday morning. It will stick like glue to spot VIX between now and then. In the meantime, I guess uncertainty in the Middle East is a nonissue. https://t.co/8eThjEF0EO
BlackRock Shifts Aggressively, Targets 300‑400% Commodity Returns
Thanks for playing --- "BlackRock Pivots 'Hard' For 3rd Time In 50 Years: Chasing 300-400% Returns With 4 Commodity Plays, Says Former Banker." Bloomberg.
Majority Predicted NQ at 23K at Month Start
feels like these two tweets belong together If at start of the month you said NQ 23K or 25K almost everyone would have said 23K https://t.co/p9mVQ22gS3
Nokia Poised for Growth via Hyperscalers, 800G, Nvidia AI‑RAN
"Analyst Oliver Wong and his team are positive on Nokia $NOK due to hyperscaler-driven growth in optical systems, inflection in pluggable revenues on shift to 800G... a potential advantage in AI-RAN with an Nvidia (NVDA) partnership." https://t.co/rQSQErgiEK
QCOM Margins Squeezed; Hold Off New Longs Till June
QCOM: handset volumes fall; memory-price shock squeezes margins. Auto/IoT gain offsets but Apple modem exit and licensing risk persist. Trade: avoid new longs until June analyst day. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Identify Top SMID-Cap Needing Better Governance
Semi-regular post: what is the highest quality SMID-cap you have come across which would benefit from improved governance/strategy?
Earn Income While Waiting, Then Multiply Microsoft Returns
My Exact Microsoft Trade: Getting Paid to Wait + Multiplying Returns #msft #optionstrader #stocks #tradingstrategy
Iran Blockade Tests Which Side Can Endure More Pain
Fascinating wargame playing out in real time. We shall see who blinks: “Iran Blockade Sets Up a Test of Which Side Can Endure More Pain” https://t.co/PfxFdyBELR via @NYTimes
U.S. Oil Blockade Likely Raises Exports and Pump Prices
U.S. oil blockade is set to boost American exports and prices at the Pump https://t.co/imnRBifyQr
New Memory ETF Fills Gap in Pure HBM
Tema filing for a Memory ETF.. No doubt everyone seeing $DRAM's shocking insta-success and looking to copy. I went looking through other AI ETFs there's really nothing close to DRAM's HBM pure play-ness outside of the South Korea ETF...
SPY Near All‑Time High, V‑Shape Recovery Questions Bearish Stance
$SPY is now 1.7% away from making all time highs. A clean V-Shape recovery & you’re still bearish?