High Oil Prices and Weak Loonie Boost Canadian Producers
Soaring oil prices, tight WCS differentials, and a lagging Loonie is a fantastic combination for Canadian oil producers.
Drone Strikes Threaten Russian Oil, Global Market Stability
With the Persian Gulf effectively offline, losing Russian oil would be devastating to the global markets. Drone warfare continues to evolve and reshape the way these conflicts unfold, especially when targeting energy infrastructure. #crude #russiaukrainewar #geopolitics https://t.co/L5OoXtN7DJ
Broad Market Breadth: 60% of S&P
Good breadth today (if you're a bull) @stockcharts 60% of SPX names were up... $MDY $IJR $IWM higher https://t.co/pH2LtE4VaQ
Gold's 10-Day Decline Hits Record, Yet GLD Rises
Physical gold down 10 straight days... a record... but $GLD was up today by 0.03% @stockcharts https://t.co/VFPXaVWobA
Private Money Lending: Passive Returns After Initial Due Diligence
Private money lending is the most passive way to invest in real estate. However, it takes work upfront. Majority of the work will be understanding paperwork, strategy, and how to vet borrowers. Give me a follow on IG and Threads...
Billions in FX Options Expire Tomorrow Across Major Pairs
Interesting FX options expiring tomorrow: $1.1605 for 1.8 bln euros, Thurs ~1.4 bln euros at $1.16. JPY160 for $885 mln A$1.4 bln at $0.6950. $420 mln at CAD1.3785 and $590 mln at CAD1.38. DTCC listed.
Afternoon Trades Can Slice 50% in Seconds
-50% KNIFE in SECONDS 😳 Anoher example as to WHY we avoid trading in the afternoons #howtotrade #daytrading #momentum #tradingeducation #stockstowatch
Hormuz Crisis Sparks Global Oil Shockwave Across Time
I've been describing the Hormuz crisis as a detonation in spacetime. It hit spot crude markets in the Middle East and refined products markets in Asia first. Then the shockwave travels further through time down the delivery curve, and out geographically toward...
Oil Shortage Anywhere Hits All Nations Equally
The trouble with looking at the current Hormuz crisis through the lens of which countries have historically imported the volumes is that all of these countries will now be rabidly bidding for all the other barrels. A barrel of oil lost...
Sam's Stocks Soar as Dell, Ciena Rise
Sam, you're having a good day with names like $DELL and $CIEN ramping higher in a down Tech tape @SamofAmerica
World Still Faces 6M‑Barrel Daily Oil Shortfall
Even after assuming the release of global oil stockpiles (which can not be sustained), the world is still short over 6 million barrels of oil per day, @Rory_Johnston finds https://t.co/pZBkSir3aa
Market Stuck in Choppy Frustration, Spotting Strength Trade
The market's taking the path of most frustration with no clean flush, just chop. Here's a short update on what I'm watching to signal the next real move, plus one trade idea showing serious relative strength despite the noise. $SPY...
Hoodie CNBC Picks Plunge From October Peak
The Hoodie CNBC type picks peaked in October and is hitting new lows here today #MOAB https://t.co/LQQqReCipI
BTU Must Stay Above $39 Amid Strong Coal Rally
$BTU Daily. $39 looks like the level to hold above for Peabody, as coal plays are strong across the board today with sound technical charts to boot. https://t.co/n2Llt8kZcs
Copper Poised to Rebound Above $1.14 Despite Washout
Vizsla Copper $VCU.V $VCUFF Washed out, RSI went sub-30. IMHO, Copper is set to outperform once again. Let's see if it can break out above $1.14. https://t.co/PiI05QAG5x
IGV Slides 4%—Potential Buying Opportunity Amid 31% Drawdown
iShares Tech-Software ETF $IGV down almost 4% today – now in a 31% drawdown. Buying opportunity?
Municipal Closed-End Funds Squeezed
Municipal Closed End Funds feeling the Rate complex heat of higher yields as well as credit risk pressures turning up.
PNC Holds Above 200MA, Shows Higher Low
$PNC on watch. I like the basing above the 200ma. Small gap overhead. Notice the selling volume 2 days ago and the indecision stick followed by a gap up and today back test with a higher low. All...
Intel Approaches Critical Trendline Breakout Decision
$INTC - a break is loading, but which way? Riding a multi-month trendline...a move below would be a significant signal.
Single-Family Home Inventory Rises 1.2% Weekly
3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in February Altos: Active single-family inventory was up 1.2% week-over-week https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/3rd-look-at-local-housing-markets-123
Russia's Oil Profits Surge; Carmakers Forced to Source Russian Aluminum
Russia is earning the most from its oil exports since the 2022 Ukraine invasion. https://t.co/71t01Q9mI9 Meanwhile some carmakers are considering buying aluminum from Russia. “We don’t really want to take supplies from Russia but we have no choice” https://t.co/fzAXIO4N0x
Sellers Return: New Listings Surpass 2024 Levels Again
Sellers are continuing to come back to the market after backing off in 2025. This will be the fourth month in a row where new listings outpace 2024 levels. I've wondered if uncertainty regarding the Iran war would cause sellers...
Align All Bills to the 1st for Simpler Finances
One small admin change that genuinely improved my finances: Moving every bill to the 1st of the month. Paid on the last working day -> it all clears on the 1st. No more tracking 7 different due dates, and peace of mind. Call...
Wealth Without Inheritance: 14 Simple Rules
You don't need an inheritance. You don't need a finance degree. You don't need a financial advisor. If you want to get rich, just follow 14 simple rules:
Volatility Moves on Positioning, Not Catalysts
Volatility doesn’t need a catalyst. It needs positioning. When everyone’s short $VIX indirectly, the ‘catalyst’ is just the excuse. https://t.co/St0uiv1V7S
US Money Supply Jumps 5%—Largest Rise Since 2022
The US Money Supply grew 5% over the last year, the biggest YoY increase since June 2022. After a brief hiatus, money printing is back. https://t.co/bnnPEsB9x6
Confirm Reversals Before Buying—Patience Beats Impulse
If you are going to reversal trade don't just buy willy nilly . You must get confirmation and see it first. Patience if trading this type of setup is needed.
KRE Hints at Reversal; I Remain Uninvested
$KRE showing signs of reversal. Regional banks Observation I don't own any at this time.
GLD Needs Orange‑Blue Breakout to End Downtrend
400 holding $GLD by a thread but so is the downtrend on the shortest time frame 9/20EMA-- bulls need to break thru the orange and blue for first step of any short term bottom https://t.co/kM8pHcF4ex
Active Investing Success Is Rare and Hard to Attribute
Winning as an active investor is rare, and even with the few who win consistently, separating luck from skill is tough to do, and there are broad differences in market views and investing approaches.
Canadian Homes Have Been Losing Money for a Decade
Canadian real estate is getting DEMOLISHED 🇨🇦 If you bought a principal residence in the last 10 years you lost money. Even if you bought all-cash you’re negative with inflation, property tax, insurance, and maintenance. And if you had interest payments, you’re even...
GNTX Shows Reversal Confirmation with Gap‑Up Momentum
$GNTX reversed confirm with a gap up and follow thru today. None in trade account.
Dollar Rally Stalls at 100, Bulls at Crossroads
US Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD Rally Fails at 100 – Bulls Face Decision Point https://t.co/0qMDRVx9to $DXY Daily & 240min Charts https://t.co/fcyIgceNQF
EM Rally and Strong Dollar: Unsustainable, Breaks Quickly
EM rallying while the dollar firms is a tough combo to sustain. If it breaks, it breaks fast. Where does the pressure show up first when this snaps? em
Understanding Persistent Foreign Private Demand for U.S. Treasuries
This raises an important question -- namely how should we understand ongoing demand for Treasuries from private investors abroad? 1/ https://t.co/IVZNahIfEc
XLE Remains Choppy, No Topping Sign Yet
$XLE no signs of a topping stick yet on the daily. Chop chop continues. Less is more for now. https://t.co/zLEoVHBjGA
A Budget Reveals How Much More You Must Earn
A budget won’t fix an income problem. But you need a budget to tell you exactly how much more you should be making.
DXY Volatility Hits 9‑Month High, Range Contracts
Volatility on the $DXY Dollar Index keeps has climbed to a 9 month high - when measured by the 20-day ATR. Meanwhile, the 20-day range has leveled out and contracted. So, scenarios: either volatility drops to accommodate range or breakout...
Treasury Yields Return to Trump Era, Signaling Market Anxiety
10Y treasury back to where it was at Trumps inauguration. Its increased almost 0.5% since the Iran war started in a sign that the market worries do the long term effects of Trump’s chaotic presidency. That makes mortgages more expensive. 1Y...
Ares Honors Few Redemptions, Claims Stakeholder Alignment
Ares: 11.6% redemption requests. Honored 5%. Called it “aligned with the best interests of all stakeholders.” The stakeholders who wanted their money back might define “best interests” differently.
Rising $5 Diesel Squeezes Truckers, Hits Economy
"$5 Diesel is Crushing Truckers. It Will Soon Be Felt Across the Economy." https://t.co/u6Z4qcVLci https://t.co/m3UrTU1L2r
Kuwait's Shutdown Could Cost over 100M barrelsKuwait's Shutdown Could Cost over 100M Barrels
Helpful timeline info from @Amena__Bakr on restart timelines for shut-in production. At lest count Kuwait had already shut in 1.6 MMbpd of production (likely higher by now), roughly 30 million barrels unproduced by end-March. Let's be generous and use 3 months from...
Markets Revise Expectations for Price‑Stability‑Focused Central Banks
These FT charts illustrate the shift in market expectations for policy actions by the world’s major central banks. The change has been particularly striking for central banks with a single mandate (of price stability). #economy #markets #centralbanks @financialtimes
US Yield Rise Threatens Debt Spiral Amid Oil Tensions
Update: 10y UST yields (blue, RS1) USDJPY*oil (red, LS) USDCNY*oil (green, RS2) Hormuz is still closed; China still has several years of oil inventories; 10y UST yields are ~20-30 bps from triggering a US & global debt spiral. What happens first? Let's watch. https://t.co/ixdOHnatCg
2‑Year Treasury Auction Weakest Since May 2024
“Today’s 2 yr auction was terrible:” @pboockvar The bid-to-cover ratio was the weakest since May 2024 and dealers got stuck with the largest amount since October 2022. Traders are having a hard time pricing Fed policy as oil prices swing...
Iran's Transit Fee Hikes Oil, LNG, and Shipping Prices
Factoring in Iran’s “transit” fee. And what it does to the price of oil, LNG, and anything else moving thru the Strait.
AI Accountability, Manager Incentives Undermine Traditional Style Indices
🔬 Research links: AI accountability, fund manager incentives, and the downside of traditional style indices. https://t.co/dbBOGPUYxJ image: https://t.co/bKyq3XAKIQ https://t.co/FNwileIXVO
Perplexity Computer Delivers Instant, Deep Guidance Credibility Analysis
I never found a way to adopt the old version of Perplexity in my investment process, but the things you can one-shot in Perplexity Computer are mind bogglingly good, and it has become a daily driver for me (for the...
Dollar Reserves Stalled This Decade After Prior Surge
The thing is -- There has been NO dollar reserve accumulation in aggregate over the last ten years. And there was a ton of dollar reserve accumulation during the preceding 10ys (way more than needed for precautionary purposes) https://t.co/GGry0kCOk2
GOOGL Eyes $260 Yearly Pivot After Feb Top
$GOOGL - Made an intermediate term top in early February and is headed to the yearly pivot at $260. https://t.co/Eo2MG7NbBQ