Trump Threatens NATO Exit as Iran War Looms
Trump Says U.S. May Exit Iran War Soon and Threatens to Quit NATO, as Oil Crisis Escalates. A global economic mess ahead? Is Putin smiling if US leaves NATO? https://t.co/wbm30dgf7R
SPY Breaks Out, Eyes 665 After Sideways Phase
$SPY kicking off the new month AND quarter with a breakout above its multi-week consolidation channel. Watch for sideways action before an attempt to break through 665.00.
Korea Posts $25B March Trade Surplus on Chip Boom
Crazy March trade surplus for Korea ($25b a month, $300b annualized) Strong chip exports continued. And presumably a bunch of expected tankers didn't arrive so fuel demand was met out of inventory 1/2 https://t.co/NGcasg9i4v
S&P Quarterly Chart Shows No Clear Uptrend
S&P 500 $SPX quarterly chart... remind me again why you don't think stocks are in an uptrend? https://t.co/7HYe4z8jog
Fed President Signals Rate Hold, Open to Adjustments
St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem: “I expect the current setting of the policy rate will remain appropriate for some time.” "I could support additional easing if a greater risk of a weakening labor market becomes apparent, provided inflation and inflation...
ADP Jobs Beat, Oil Inventories Drop Ahead of Fed Talk
📊 Pre-Market Brief | Wed, Apr 1 ─────── 📅 MACRO DATA Crude Oil Inventories: Est 1.8 | Prior 6.9 ISM Manufacturing PMI: Est 52.3 | Prior 52.4 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: Act 62 | Est 41 | Prior 66 🟢 ─────── 💰 MAG 7 EARNINGS None this week 🏛️...
Higher Open Fades Near VWAP; Downtrend Still Intact
Markets are higher this morning but pulling back a bit right now and at the overnight VWAP ⚫️. Let's see how the anchor from yesterdays news is handled 🟣 if there is further weakness. Keep in mind the 5 sma...
Geopolitical Risks Are Temporary; Stick to Fundamentals
Geopolitical Risk Is A Recurring But Temporary Driver Of Markets ➡️While recent developments such as rising oil prices, evolving tariff policy, persistent inflation... can heighten investor anxiety, the more pressing challenge for advisors is helping clients distinguish between short-term noise...
China’s 90% Model Threatens Global Industries
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐄𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐜 𝐒𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐠𝐲 𝐓𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐂𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐃𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐨𝐲 𝐘𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐮𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐲 In my latest interview on @ndtv , India's leading English-language business news channel, I break down 𝐂𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐚'𝐬 90% 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐥: 𝐚𝐧 𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐜 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐠𝐲 𝐝𝐞𝐬𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐣𝐮𝐬𝐭 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐞𝐭𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐭𝐨 𝐬𝐲𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐲 𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐠𝐥𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐥 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐞𝐭𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. China builds...
Yesterday's Top Movers: PRGS, SPCE, PHR, and More
This is how the stocks of the reporting companies performed yesterday: $PRGS $SPCE $PHR $APC $INV $SGMO $FDS $BITF $MKC $TE $SNX $PVLA $CHA https://t.co/UiejUOpEMy
Integrated Real Asset Strategy Protects Capital, Boosts Value
At ARH Global Advisors LLC, our Fiduciary Wealth & Real Assets Division integrates: — Acquisition strategy — Brokerage execution — Asset positioning — Risk evaluation — Long-term portfolio alignment Because real estate, private holdings, and tangible assets should never operate in isolation. They should function as part...
Memory Stocks Tumble, Triggering Shorts Into Data Centers
Shorting Memory Darling & Data Center Flower $MU $BE Memory stocks like $MU and peers have broken down after earnings, hitting key downside targets and confirming short setups across the group... and spilling into data center-related names like $BE. https://t.co/eWlx1m14Oa
U.S. Must Rethink Oil‑Security Ties with Diversifying Gulf States
Great new @ForeignAffairs essay by @ColumbiaUEnergy’s @ProfessorKaren about how post-war, the historic “oil for security” relationship is no longer tenable, & US needs to update its approach to Gulf states that are rapidly diversifying their economies https://t.co/Nmszm8a5bu
China Poised to Weather Hormuz Oil Shutdown
How China can survive without the Strait of Hormuz The world’s largest importer of oil through the Strait of Hormuz is, paradoxically, also one of the best placed to weather the waterway’s closure. https://t.co/YczOlt8T4v
Watch Key Levels for Macro‑Driven Risk‑Off Moves
Here’s is my🔥 #stickynote for April 1, 2026: Macro-heavy session with data + Fed speakers — watching for risk-off tone and reaction to key levels 👀 🧠 Macro Focus: Oil strength + macro catalysts could keep pressure on equities. Expect moves driven by...
46 Firms Created Half US Market Wealth; Most Stocks Lag
From 1926-2025 just 46 companies accounted for half of the $91 trillion in wealth created by the US stock market 60% of stocks underperformed T-bills Some thoughts on how to own the best stocks: https://t.co/chTC5hDP2I https://t.co/4YIroZABKD
Dell Partners Outpace Q1 Forecast, Raising Guidance
3pdata shop out on $DELL latest research into DELL suggests partners are tracking ahead of F1Q plan across segments driven by pull-forward and similar to better win rates. We slightly raised our F1Q estimates and are ahead of cons...
China Poised to Capture Market as Iran War Reshapes Trade
Iran war gives Chinese exporters chance to grab global market share Ample oil reserves and renewables growth make manufacturing sector more resilient than rivals https://t.co/Zm287YiQYa via @ft
Sub‑6% Mortgage Rates Hit Lowest Since 2015
Q4 2025 NMDB data reveals that 78% of mortgaged homes have a rate below 6%, that's down from the peak of 93% in Q2 2022. The share of mortgaged homes with a rate below 6% is the lowest since 2015....
Replacement Cost No Longer a Credible Selling Point
We’ve gotten to the point where you almost lose credibility when you bring up replacement cost as a selling point. Take literally any retail property in America: Calculate what it would cost to build it. Add tenant improvement allowance, leasing commissions, permits,...
Market Dips Are Normal; Volatility Fuels Long-Term Gains
Over the last 75 years, the average intra-year market drop has been 14%. If you are overly stressed out about the current 9% drawdown, the stock market isn’t for you. Downside volatility is the price investors pay for long-term outperformance....
New Bottom‑Detection Checklist Updated After Key Signals Align
thought i'd update you on my "Is It A Bottom?" checklist as we had a lot of ingredients come together... https://t.co/Mfvm0cfFFI
Pre‑Market Outlook: Short Leash, Drop Laggards, Dollar‑Driven Moves
(PREMIUM) The Lyons Share Daily Pre-Market Outlook & Charts videos for 4/1/2025 are up: https://t.co/lSmWM5IZh8 Today's Themes: 1) SHORT Leash 2) Lose The LAGGARDS 3) DOLLAR Driver Among markets covered: $SPX $NDX $VIX $SMH $XLB $XLE $GDX $EEM $EFA $GLD $SLV $ETH...
Model Signals New Equity Buy as VIX Drops
my S&P 500 $SPX vs. volatility $VIX model fired another buy signal for equities yesterday as it settled... https://t.co/3FNpIhBqkB
Fertilizer Costs Surge, Food Prices Remain Stable
Though fertilizer prices are soaring, so far food prices are not. Good news from Alan Beattie in the Financial Times. Featured on today's Chartbook Top Links: https://t.co/4bpBb11NI9
Close‑to‑open Trades Outpace Buy
"Buy and hold has seen a drop of roughly 5% for the S&P over the last six months. Had you only owned the market after hours by buying at the close every day and selling at the next open,...
Wealthy Use Secret Asset to Safeguard Money
Selling my company for 7 figures taught me exactly how wealthy people protect their money. It's not gold. It's not crypto. It's not index funds. It's something most W-2 earners have never heard of… Here's exactly what they do (& how you can copy them):
Even Buffett Times Markets, Not Just Holds
One of the biggest adjustments I‘ve made over the last 12-18 months is becoming much more open-minded to the idea of timing. Still in the process of "getting" market timing. Buffett is arguably one of the greatest market timers in...
Beyond Meat Shares Plunge; CEO Blames U.S. Culture
Beyond Meat tumbles as CEO blames American society for its business struggles after issuing weak sales outlook https://t.co/YX9hzenK9z $BYND https://t.co/btUu0uOuGM
Brent Price Plunge Driven by May‑June Contract Roll
The big drop you see in Brent crude prices overnight is primarily the prompt (ie front-month) contract roll from May to June May Brent crude contract expired at >$118 June currently [somehow??] trading at $101 So relieved to hear this will be entirely...
Choosing a Cheaper Home Bought Future Job Freedom
My friend turned down a $7M house and bought $4.5M instead. Same neighbourhood. Same class. The $2.5M he didn't borrow? Became the freedom to leave his job five years later.
ARK Adds Private OpenAI to ETFs, 3% Stake
ARK is going to add private co OpenAI into some of its ETFs. I believe it’s 4th ETF to do this, and def not the last. 3% weighting. Nice scoop from @shiringhaffary @isabelletanlee https://t.co/OITULFSOS1
SPX Breaks 6427, Eyes 6553 with 6705 Target
$SPX clearing 6427 to see 6553 and futures +45 for follow-through. Now it’s trim and trail, with 6595–6620 as the next resistance that can pause the tape. The bigger “grudge match” spot is closer to 6705ish, but we’ll see how...
Crises Spike Fossil Prices; Clean Energy Is Essential Hedge
Spoke to @AJEnglish on Iran war & energy. Crises always drive up fossil fuel prices. That's not a bug but a feature of dependence. The only hedge against this kind of disruption is the clean energy transition. The economic case just got...
US Election Clock Forces Push to End War, Brent Slides
Brent has fallen sharply as the US sounds increasingly like it just wants to declare "mission accomplished" and end this war. I do think the midterm elections later this year mean the US is on a very tight timeline and...
Tax-Free 351 ETFs Surge to $16B Across 77 Funds
351 ETFs (where investors make tax free exchange of highly appreciated stocks for ETF shares) are growing like crazy, there’s now 77 of them on the market w $16b in assets. We asked @TaxAlphaInsider on ETF IQ where he sees...
Cathie Wood, Biggest ARKK Loser, Now Teaching Investing
Now up on @SquawkCNBC Cathie Wood who has lost more money in $ARKK than any other actively managed ETF in history. She is giving viewers investing lessons now. Wash, rinse, repeat. @dougkass @cnbc
Raleigh Beltline Densifies, Inventory Rise Pressures Prices
"Some developers are maximizing available land, especially inside the Raleigh Beltline. They sometimes build two homes on a single lot....[I]nventory is catching up with demand, which is affecting the average sale price" 😲 https://t.co/fi12sk2s80 https://t.co/Bev8IMMjtb
Hormuz Closure Sparks Recession, Futures Hint Deflation
Hormuz Closure, December Futures Signal Post-Inflation Deflation - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz might have already triggered a global recession, with lose-lose implications for most risk assets and commodities -- particularly crude oil. Rolling to front-month just before...
SPX Slides, JPM Put Gains as Political Tension Spikes
This is downright freaky. From Feb '25 - Mar 31, the SPX was down 9%, & closed on the JPM 5,565 Put on 3/31 Then came April 2nd "Liberation Day". The SPX subsequently dropped 10% 2026: SPX -6% from Feb, rallying to...
Gas at $5 vs 5% Bonds: Inflation Signal
Natural Gas $5, T-Bonds 5%: Inflation vs. Deflation - January (Jan27) US natural gas futures and the 30-year Treasury bond on the same scale highlights inflation vs. deflation implications of $5 per million BTU gas and 5% yields. Full report on...
US Stock Volatility May Ignite Recovery Amid Deflation
A Lose-Lose? Crude Spike vs. Buried Equity Volatility - Subdued US stock market volatility may have found a worthy spark for recovery, with deflationary implications. US stock-market capitalization was down about $6 trillion year to date to March 30, representing...
Spot Market Clues: Liquidity Grabs, Structure Shifts, Precise Entries
Clean Vision 👁️💎 Not every move is random. The market leaves clues — most traders just don’t see them. This setup highlights: • Liquidity grab • Structure shift • Precision entry via FVG • High-probability continuation Stop reacting. Start understanding. 📈 Trade with clarity....
Industry Lobbying Inflates Oil Forecasts, Not Reality
When the G7 price cap was being negotiated in 2022, one US bank had an oil forecast of $380. That was the oil sector talking. It hates interference in its business. It's the same now. $150 or $200 forecasts...
Hope Fuels Risk Appetite, Weakens Dollar Amid Middle East Conflict
Hope Boosts Risk Appetites and Drags the Greenback Lower: Hope springs eternal, and the capital markets are trading on hope that the Middle East war ends shortly, even as missiles continue to be fired in the region. President Trump again...
WNDR.TO Loses Appeal as Spread Narrows, Risks Rise
Time to move on here. $WNDR.TO spread has tightened from ~40% to ~13%, with shares back to prior levels. Op performance has deteriorated meaningfully, and a major early backer has fully exited. With regulatory risk still lingering, the risk/reward no longer...
Stocks Excel Long-Term, Avoid for Short-Term Needs
Investing Quote of the Day: “The stock market has been the best place to be over the last 10 years, 30 years, 100 years. But if you need the money in one or two years, you shouldn't be buying stocks.”...
Light Portfolio Delivers 6.5% Alpha, 5% Beta Gains
Positions are super light. Alpha up 6.5% YTD 2% of AUM in SPX Puts bought on yesterday close A boatload of STIR bought higher but exposed to rate cuts and recovering That's it Beta up 5% YTD cuz own gold and commodities as...
Markets Hope for Middle East Peace, Expect Consolidation
The capital markets are being driven by hope that the Middle East war ends shortly. Markets are anticipatory. Still, they do not always get it right. Ahead of POTUS speech tonight, consolidation may be most likely scenario. https://t.co/6peh5F9uHH https://t.co/aae8efFiPO
Dollar Set to Rise Through 2027, Target 110?
$DXY monthly - Closed above the 10 month MA. The 3 year cycle low in January is confirmed. The rising phase of the previous 3 year cycles lasted at least 18 months, so the Dollar is likely to move higher...