Public, Maybank Lead with Top PBV and ROE
Snapshot of Top 6 Malaysian banks and BIMB valuation. •Public has the highest PBV at 1.5x •Maybank is 1.4x The two banks have the best ROE of 12.1% and 11.3%. •RHB is “most improved” at 1.0x as ROE rose to ~10% Most banks will release 1Q 2026 earnings in final week of May, except Public - scheduled this week.
BP Near Multi-Year Highs with Consistent Higher Lows
BP weekly: not far from multi year highs. Steady pattern of higher lows and well behaved channel. https://t.co/TNDXLDNhkL
Nat Gas Shows Higher Low, Inverted H&S Forming
Nat gas - what do we have here: First higher low on the dailies and potential for an inverted head and shoulders. Rumor is that folks going to be running those ACs full blast in the midwest the...
Corn Rebounds; Post‑flush Rally May Become Sustainable
Corn start of another daily swing up after a long liquidation flush. After these flushes a more sustainable rally can take hold. https://t.co/gUHutZKqay
Micron's 770% Surge Makes It Cheap on Earnings
"A 770% stock surge has made Micron one of America’s most valuable companies. Yet its profits have increased so much that the stock actually looks cheap by traditional valuation metrics" Shares are trading at 8.9x the co's projected earnings over...
SOX Surges 60% Above 200‑Day MA, Unseen Since 2000
The SOX is also now 60% above its 200-day moving average. That’s a level that hasn’t been hit since March 2000 and July 1995--@bespokeinvest https://t.co/yQkWEhswb2
Market Near Blow‑Off Top as Investors Go All‑In
Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: 1. The equal-weighted S&P500 has stalled at resistance. 2. (and the cap-weighted is back to outperforming equal-weighted) 3. We are potentially in the blow-off top phase of the market cycle. 4. Investors are all-in on stocks (and...
SPY and Bitcoin Rebound Similarly After March 2020 Crash
Look at SPY & Bitcoin charts in March 2020 & then look at what they did after Before you argue with me there's your answer to what's about to happen next....and then 👇🏾
IMF Misses Surge in China's Surplus, Predicts Decline
The IMF didn't see the big rise in China's surplus coming. In fact, @IMFNews always forecasts that the surplus will dissipate -- From work in progress with Shahin Vallee 1/ https://t.co/Wp2uhY73cS
All‑Weather ETF Combo Beats AOR on Returns and Risk
Here's an update on an ETF combo portfolio I have discussed before (I don't trade it). It contains: 30% $SPHB 30% $GLD 40% $DBMF The All Weather variant is a fixed allocation rebalanced monthly. CAGR 13.9% maxDD...
Bay Area Prices Converge; SF Hot Spots Mislead Scarcity
Narrative violation -- SF real estate is not hot. at least not uniformly. Zillow data shows hot SF neighborhoods are up nearly 10% YoY. But lot of SF neighborhoods are not hot and therefore not experiencing a price surge (yet?). And...
Dollar Weakening Signals Imminent Rate Cuts and Market Shift
The recent behavior of the US dollar is increasingly consistent with a market anticipating intervention in the rates market ahead. Lower rates and a weaker dollar are no longer optional policies. They are becoming absolutely essential for the system to function under...
When Business Thrives, Choose Investment over Profit Harvesting
“When your business is behaving like this, we believe the right response is not to harvest — it is to invest.” Mercado Libre Q1 2026 Shareholder Letter
Semiconductor Giants Reveal Undervalued Growth: PEGs Below 1
SEMICONDUCTOR STOCKS BY PEG RATIO PEG 2 starts to push into the danger zone Here’s how they stack up: • $INTC ~2.8x • $LRCX ~2.0x • $KLAC ~2.0x • $AMAT ~2.0x • $ASML ~1.7x • $ALAB ~1.6x • $ARM ~1.5x • $ANET ~1.5x • $LITE ~1.3x • $TSM ~1.1x • $CRDO ~1.0x •...
Average Returns Are Illusion; Airlines Need Data-Driven Profitability
🆓 Sunday links: the illusion of average returns, maintaining airline profitability, and the downside of skimping on economic data collection. https://t.co/1xzkfUMG96 image: https://t.co/kbfVS5Wdfv https://t.co/qXgjSeKAJa
Seek Compounding Stocks for Higher Returns and Downside Protection
I think about this a LOT. It’s very important to look for compounding in the stocks you buy for many reasons. Certainly it means you can profit more per hour of research. But, it also protects your downside, ensures you...
China Acquires US Defense Assets Cheaply as Americans Fund Deficits
“Dollar dominance” as defined by many here on X = China buys up the US defense industrial base on the cheap while US Boomers & Banks buy negative real yielding USTs to finance US deficits (aka lose capital on a...
China Offers Aid as US Builds Walls
My take in @FortuneMagazine on the pivot away from the USA to China: “While Bessent was busying himself on Fox News, China was busy making friends by supplying those in distress with much-needed oil and other commodities…While Washington raises walls, Beijing opens doors.” https://t.co/E4hn2YdcN2
Eight Years of Growth Reveal True Moat, Not Luck
Buffett passed on a company that just posted its best year ever. He wanted to see year 8. Single-year outperformance is how good luck looks before it reverts. Eight years of it is how a moat looks before the market notices. That's not...
$7 Diesel Cripples Trucking, Exposes US Oil Dependence
$7 diesel. NW Indiana. Bad for trucking. And supply chains. Imagine the price if the US did not have all that oil that Trump talks about.
Nasdaq Leads Risk Appetite Surge, Headlines Irrelevant
My article looking out over market conditions and top events for the week ahead: Nasdaq Leads Incredible Risk Appetite Charge and Headlines Make the ‘Why’ Irrelevant https://t.co/JdJ7yi3rmb https://t.co/SzIdZNf4CT
China Leverages SOEs to Weaponize Import Bans
I am not the first person to observe that when China decides to make a political point by not importing it makes that point forcefully -- by zero'ing out its imports from a specific country. Big SoEs control a...
Corn Bets May Be More Vulnerable than Soy
🔥Speculators built record bullish bets across U.S. grains & oilseeds in the first week of May, anchored by massive net longs in corn and soybeans. But which of those positions looks more vulnerable right now? I break this down in my...
Legacy Architecture Beats Short‑Term Wealth Management
Building real wealth isn't a quarterly game - it's about decades of smart moves. I've watched family offices transform from money managers into legacy architects. They're not just protecting wealth, they're designing how it flows through generations. This is what...
SK Hynix Still Cheap After 9x Surge
SK Hynix is up 9x since my April 2025 writeup. Usually, that means the easy money is gone. But here is the strange part: the forward P/E has barely moved. The market still values SK Hynix at ~5-6x forward earnings, as if this...
Home Sales Still Below 2014 Lows Despite App
Remember base effects with purchase app data, even though we are at 2014 levels, existing home sales haven't even returned to the lowest levels of 2014 data, and won't this year https://t.co/TwbSqgl1YH
Seattle Inventory Spikes 88%, Buyers Finally Gain Leverage
Seattle's housing market is going through a historic inventory shock. There are now 8,630 listings across the Seattle metro as of Apr 2026. In a normal April, there are only 4,600 listings. Meaning inventory today is 88% above normal. This is happening due to...
S&P 500 Hits New ATH Amid Overbought Momentum
#SP500 small Up Candle and New ATH 7401. Support 7174, 7046, 6790. RSI 73.5 Overbought but not silly. Up Candle on Weekly. Top Bollinger Band 7428. Midpoint Line 7244. Bottom Band 7066.
Dow Near All‑Time High, Doji Signals Cautious Bullishness
#DOW doji Candle up near ATH 50512. Support 48708, 48000, 46978. RSI 61 not high. 13/21 day EMAs Bullish. Doji on Weekly and Sideways. Top Bollinger Band 50014. Midpoint Line 49367. Bottom Band 48725.
Collin County Housing Correction Opens Buyer Bargain Window
Collin County, TX is in the midst of a stiff housing correction in 2026. Inventory has spiked 62% above the long-term average, to over 4,300 listings. This high supply is causing values to drop, down -6.1% over the last year already. Sellers...
Mid‑
Crayon economics for a reason, credit channels run inventory channels... Mid June 2025 housing shifted 🫡 https://t.co/X4PCpW4zoi
China Uses Trade Deals as Leverage, Creates Hostages
China loves these deals, as they create "hostages" that China can seize if the relationship goes sour -- (of course China never delivered on its "phase one commitments, and it squeezed 'beans hard over the last year) 1/3 https://t.co/54LagYdspc
S&P Target Raised to 8250 Amid Record Earnings Surge
“We are raising our year-end S&P 500 target from 7700 to 8250. We've been bullish on earnings but not as bullish as the recent consensus of industry analysts. We've never seen consensus earnings expectations rise so quickly for the current...
Self‑directed Investing Beats Trusting Friends with Money
There have only been a couple of times in my life when I entrusted others to manage my money—mostly early on, when I was inexperienced looking for guidance and looking for someone to get me rich. In hindsight, I’m actually...
S&P Climbs 7% While Most Large Caps Lag
The S&P 500 is up almost 7% in the last three months. Just 29% of large cap stocks are up at least 5% and 43% are down more than -5% during the same period.
Pandemic‑Driven Stocks Set to Surge Amid Volatility
Thoughts? We discuss four stocks that could potentially surge if another global pandemic causes market volatility similar to We break down why Thermo Fisher Scientific, Abbott Laboratories, Pfizer, and Gilead Sciences could be smart plays, highlighting their roles in testing,...
Tech Titans Lead World's Largest Family Offices in 2026
Top 10 largest family offices in the world in 2026, according to Altss 1. Walton Enterprises: $225B AUM The Walton family office remains the world’s largest. Backed by Walmart ownership, the family now deploys capital across PE, VC, climate and impact...
Modi Urges Frugal Habits to Strengthen Indian Rupee
🚨Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s message to help Indian currency🚨 ❌ Do not purchase gold for a year. ❌Asked companies to promote work-from-home. ❌ Travel through public transport - Metro/Bus, Save petrol and diesel. ❌ Avoid foreign travels & destination weddings. ❌ Avoid foreign brands, rather...
Redfin Rebounds From Record Lows to Four-Year Sales High
Redfin went from the lowest demand ever, the highest number of sellers ever, and the highest cancelation rates ever to a four-year high in pending sales within a few weeks 🤔😏 I have questions. https://t.co/5Ijqf0Sdfu
Nasdaq 100 Hits Rare 14% Surge Above 10‑Week Average
Nasdaq 100 is now over 14% above its 10-week moving average. This hasn't happened in quite a while, not since Nov. '22, Nov. '01, March '00, Nov. '99, Nov. '98, Jan. '92, Feb. '91 The proverbial rubber band is stretched. Only...
Gold Holds Support, Poised for Range Breakout
Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Defends Key Support- Range Breakout Ahead https://t.co/YRJlERclMP $XAUUSD Weekly Chart https://t.co/SDW7ocoF3m
Iran Conflict Triggers Recession, Accelerates Renewable Shift
principal near term impact of ongoing iran war: global recession. bad for everyone. principal long term impact of ongoing iran war: end of opec, faster move away from oil & gas towards post-carbon renewables. good for everyone, especially china.
EU and India Sign Central Banking Cooperation MoU
🇪🇺🇮🇳 I met @RBI Governor Malhotra in Basel to sign a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on cooperation in the field of central banking. Looking forward to continued good cooperation. Read the press release https://t.co/uFmnxvTaFg https://t.co/uCVDSJtddt
Buy Asian Cyclical Exporters on Trade‑talk Dip
US–China trade talks in S.Korea (May 12–13) signal detente; risk if talks falter. Trade insight: buy Asian cyclical exporters on dip. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Questioning Flawed Research on Banks' Dollar Holdings
Mr. Balding needs to back up his assertion here -- What part is wrong? The increase in banks foreign assets? The SCB's rising dollar holdings (in SAFE's data) The policy banks' dollar lending (from AIDdata) 1/2 https://t.co/bGHKNMvvNj
QQQ's Unsustainable
Insane, unsustainable move, but also very difficult to know where it will stop. $QQQ @marketsurge #IBDPartner Day 24 sweet spot, and now over upper BB https://t.co/zc1quQel0R
QQQ Surges Above 200‑Week MA, Targets 786
$QQQ - Closed the week above the yearly R1(700). The yearly R2 is 786. It's now more than 58% above its 200 week MA, for the 1st time since 2020-2021. I'm looking for it to do what it did at...
Growth Returns, SaaS Valuations Favor Profitability Over Sales
SaaS valuation map: growth is back, but the market is still selective. Forward EV/Gross Profit tells a cleaner story than EV/Sales because it adjusts for gross margin quality. $PLTR currently trades around 72.3x Forward EV/Gross Profit with +62.6% NTM estimated revenue growth. $APP...
Oil Inventories Plummet, Looming Shortage Will Trigger Price Spike
The world is burning through oil inventories at the fastest pace on record. Since the US-Israeli war on Iran began, stockpiles have fallen by 4.8 million barrels per day, exceeding the peak COVID drawdown. Once inventories run dry, we will switch from...
Use Debt Wisely to Build Mom’s Financial Freedom
Your mom doesn’t want you debt-free. She wants you financially free. Using debt to build wealth might be the greatest gift you ever give her.