Corn Set for Second-Half Price Pressure, Consumers Benefit
Corn, Like Crude, Faces 2H Price Pressure Similar to crude oil, the US is the largest producer of corn and a net exporter, while prices have bounced in 1H and domestic supplies are ample. The recipe benefits consumers, not prices. Full report on the Bloomberg here: https://t.co/fMLSr5EaBO {BI COMD} #corn #futures @BBGIntelligence
Holding Decades, Not Churning, Signals Strong Process
"We expect to hold positions for 10-plus years. To us, constant churn is a telltale sign of a poor investment process that prioritizes short-term results.” - Dev Kantesaria
Oil Market Broken: Unprecedented Shock, Bias, Possible Insider Trading
The oil market is broken, I told @Bloomberg TV. - Oil market players are in uncharted territory -- a supply shock of this duration and magnitude is unprecedented - There is an optimism bias, no doubt fuelled by misdirection ("imminent deal")...
We Underestimate Others' Retirement Needs, Not Our Own
How much do you need to retire? Whatever number you just thought of, the research suggests you're probably wrong. Kahneman revised his own famous finding before he died. 85% of people underestimate what others need. And trusting your neighbours is worth more...
Central Banks Face Repeated Inflation Amid Supply Shocks
NEW ODD LOTS Monetary Policy in the Age of Supply Side Shocks @tracyalloway and I talk to the great Megan Greene —- always @economistmeg to us — about how central banks are dealing with one inflationary episode after another https://t.co/y1tj2H3kJm
Panic Sell‑Off Makes $GMS.L a 100% Upside Play
Panic sell-off creating a perfect entry point on $GMS.L - London listed, 15 support vessel operators - Trading at 4x EBITDA with 20% FCF yield - Improving BS + massive backlog visibility - Capital dist. set to resume in '26 - 100% upside if catalyst...
Moats Require Years of Losses Before Returns
On Nvidia & CUDA: “building a real moat means absorbing real financial costs for years before any payoff arrives” https://t.co/hm6977yQDo
S&P 500 Hits Fresh All‑Time High, Bull Market Confirmed
🟢 8 of 8 Bullish 🟢 Regime: Confirmed Bull Market The S&P 500 just closed at another fresh all-time high. Momentum is strengthening again. Risk appetite pushed back toward the highs. Internals and global participation both improved again this week. New weekly update is live. No...
Fairness Demands Ending Retiree Tax Breaks, Taxing Super Like Wages
If we want intergenerational fairness (something I've long advocated) why don't we preserve tax concessions for working age people and totally remove them for superannuants, plus charge tax on super earnings/withdrawals commensurate with marginal rates on wage earners?
Buffett Lauds Medallion Fund’s 39% Decades‑long Returns
Warren Buffett acknowledging the success of the Medallion Fund: "Jim Simons' Medallion Fund has done 39% net of fees for three decades, which proves that it works". "They were very, very smart". "We are not trying to make money trading stocks. We don't...
China Pushes Global Expansion While Guarding Domestic Production
Rhodium: "Chinese firms are emerging as major global competitors, but Beijing is intent on ensuring that this overseas expansion does not lead to a hollowing out of production or capabilities in China or a loss of control over key supply...
Major Cineplex Jumps 11% on Booming Q1 Profits
Thai cinema operator Major Cineplex MAJOR TB (one of my biggest positions) +11% today thanks to its 1Q2026 report: • Revenue +14% • Net profit +126% • The Thai box office was strong, driven partly by Avatar and The Undertaker 2 •...
Cerebras Gains 55% Upside From AWS, OpenAI Partnerships
Hedgeye Long $CBRS 55% Upside from $120 IPO Price(before the $150-$160 change cuz demand) Many reasons why ,but this one point stood out Commercial momentum has accelerated following major engagements with AWS and OpenAI (OAI). We estimate OpenAI TCV exceeds $20bn,...
Mixed Markets Ahead as SPY Hovers Near 735
Mixed markets to start the week. $spx futs-7 After another ATH last week as the $spy hits 738+ to manage. We’ll see if we holds $735ish Or the 8day. Lots of specific names to manage. https://t.co/bDJdiz4TiD
Mark Dynamics Commands 45% Glove‑mold Market, 10% Growth
Glove mold maker Mark Dynamics (MARK IJ) via @TigerThesis: • 45% global market share in the hand-like molds used to produce rubber gloves • R&D jointly with customers = switching costs • Oversupplying post-COVID, but temporary • 10% secular growth • 2026e P/E 8.7x...
Gas Dominates European Power Prices, Driving Higher Costs
Where gas sets prices, prices are higher. r = 0.91 across European electricity markets. Italy & UK: gas sets prices 75-80% of hours, avg €90-115/MWh. Finland: 15% of hours, €42/MWh. More in next newsletter on whether renewables mean lower prices: https://t.co/In5lBaF2ox https://t.co/NWmfk3NfQh
UTG Boosts Buyback to £165m Using Property Sale
#UTG incresed Buyback programme to £165m from previous £100m. Increase really possible due to proceeds from selling St Pancras Way property.
China’s Industrial Push Threatens G7’s 13% Export Share
Hard hitting and detailed rpt on China's new industrial policy and implications. Including the potential challenge to/loss of market share in G7 = almost 13% of mfg exports by 2030. Past due time to smell the coffee. https://t.co/9WBKMxPaRz
Germany Faces Stagflation as Growth Slows, Inflation Rises
Good Morning from Germany, which appears to be heading towards stagflation. Consensus GDP forecasts for 2026 have been revised down from more than 1% to just 0.66%, while inflation forecasts have climbed above 2.7%. Against this backdrop, the ECB is...
China Pumps AI and Weapons, Economy Sputters
Xi’s China: Dazzling Technology, Military Muscle—and an Economic Mess. Government pours money into AI, electric cars and military power, while consumer confidence sags and job market grows bleak @BrianSpegele https://t.co/oLalrSpepN https://t.co/oLalrSpepN
Guindos Calls for Cautious Rate Policy Before Exit
ECB’s Guindos urges rate ‘prudence’ as he prepares to leave the central bank https://t.co/zrPWNMfuOi https://t.co/cCXOg02GW0
Ericsson Boosts Capital Efficiency with Aggressive Share Buyback
"@Ericsson Optimises Capital Structure with Aggressive Share Buyback Maneuvers", get the full story via the Elnion news desk.. https://t.co/CNAHE2qmvJ https://t.co/0MbpDlXZgS
KEN Poised for 10‑20x Breakout, Despite Missed Entry
I tried to add at 2.92p unsuccessfully as I think this is a beast. Mining sector not my specialty so I size accordingly BUT I’m trying to hang on when this 2x and 3x as I think this is a 10...
KEN Poised For
I’m not a geologist BUT #KEN looks sensational. 10 to 20 bagger from my 2.6p cost price ? An easy tripler for the risk reverse .
Clar
#SHOE they last warned on the the 22nd of April https://t.co/xyKq1tXWaV …so does this “however” followed by a “further impacted” represent a new warning? Answers on an insole please https://t.co/xLKMC6xeoK
Reinvest Gains Wisely: Seek Advice, Avoid Splurging
When you take profits, resist the urge to splurge and consider investing in other assets like real estate, index funds, or businesses that aren’t going anywhere anytime soon. Just don’t go in blind...talk to people who’ve actually done well in...
Oil Cargo Prices Plunge as Buyers Retreat
MUST READ: The cost of a real-world oil cargo is dropping fast as buyers back away. The sharp retreat provides a counterintuitive backdrop to warnings the oil market is barreling toward a crisis point. Still, traders cautioned the calm may be...
Investors Chase Hot Assets, Sparking Sequential Market Rallies
And true to form again, everyone searched and bought $MSTR, $GOLD ripped, then they searched and bought $GOLD, now $NDX rips https://t.co/tQrjYbGc0y
TSLX Dividend Cut Signals Caution, Not Buying Opportunity
TSLX cut its dividend to $0.48—a sign of caution, not stability. With NAV erosion and rising non-accruals, this BDC still trades at a premium. Not a buy yet. 🚩 BDCs
China's Infrastructure Push Fuels Iron Ore Rally
1/4 Bloomberg: "Iron ore rose as signs of solid Chinese demand offset concerns over rising supply" No surprise here. China needed to boost infrastructure investment sharply, and this had to be good for related commodities. https://t.co/xLQ6XURUTD
Saudi Retaliation Risk: Destroying Own Oil Assets
“… Had the Kingdom wanted, and it is capable of doing so, to respond in kind to Iran by destroying Iranian facilities and interests, the outcome could have been the destruction of Saudi oil facilities…” — Prince Turki Al-Faisal https://t.co/yVh8S9oMYL
ECB Plans Two Rate Hikes in 2026 Amid Rising Inflation
ECB to hike rates twice in 2026 as inflation jumps, survey shows https://t.co/rmmGoo23tC via @NickHeubeck https://t.co/dLWVfE1Cc2
Semiconductor Index Hits Best Six‑Week Run Since 2000
The PHLX Semiconductor index just notched its best six-week performance since the period ending **March 10, 2000**
Price Controls Trigger Gas Station Closures, Shortages
Tragic but predictable: South Korea imposed communist-style price controls on gasoline… and gas stations started closing. Shortages incoming. Price controls never work
China's Steel Exports Dip to 2023 Low After 2025 Record
Chinese exported a record quantity of steel in 2025, which annoyed a lot of its trade partners. That pace has slowed somewhat this year. Year to date it's at the lowest level since 2023 (although still the fourth highest on...
Fed Cuts Don’t Guarantee Bond Rallies, History Shows
For years, a familiar pitch has followed every Fed cut: rates are dropping, so bonds should rally. But history is a little messier than that. Bond outcomes do NOT move in a predictable manner just because the US Fed changes policy. Source:...
Brent Surges 4%, Threatening Global Economy Amid Geopolitical Tensions
Brent up over 4% Mon morning >$105. I see a Pakistan request in the works... or maybe it will be Qatar now. I see a Trump TACO coming. But seriously, this has gone beyond ridiculous now and dangerously damaging to the global...
Modi Speech Sparks Mixed Sector Moves, Rupee Likely Falls
Sectors in focus today after Modi ji's speech 🇮🇳 - 1. Jewllery stocks - Negative 2. EV stocks - Positive 3. Solar pump stocks - Positive 4. Fertiliser stocks - Negative 5. Airlines & Hotels - Negative Will it help Indian Rupee - Negative
Silver Leads as Gold‑Silver Ratio Tightens to 57.9
Good morning China; The gold-silver ratio compressed this morning (57.9) as #silver led the precious metals sector during the Asian hours
Tech Exports Fuel K‑Shaped Divergence Across Asia
A thread storm of Asia K-Shaped Divergence in Asia. In January, we published a note called EM Asia K-Shaped Recovery: Tech Exports to Lead Regional Economic Divergence in 2026, with India Lagging Even before the war, tech was driving divergence in performance...
S&P Hits Record as Earnings Surge, Inflation Spikes
S&P 500 hits another record as Q1 earnings show 18% growth. But inflation is heating up with CPI expected to jump above 3.5% this week while consumers keep spending strong. 🟢 Open https://t.co/20ROUkKlJq
SPY Volatility Cheap, but Runup May Stall
$SPY IV Rank is at 26%. Vol is cheap as we've reached new ATHs and tensions have de-escalated. The tape is extended, but fading a runup this strong isn't for the faint of heart. Let's see how Monday opens and...
Live Below Your Means to Preserve True Freedom
As an entrepreneur one of the best things you can do as you start to find success is under-leverage your growth and live under your means. Don’t instantly fall into the trap of earn more —> Spend more. The biggest gift you...
From $80K Debt to $3.4M Through Relentless Frugality
CRAZY SHIT I DID: to go from $80k in debt to $3.4M - Lived in cheapest rental home my wife could stand - Spent 1000s of hours studying money & investing - Sold my Range Rover & got a 2012 Toyota Prius -...
China's PPI Surge Boosts FX, Not Equities
Good morning, China PPI rose to 2.8%YoY in April from 0.5% but CPI increased by much less at 1.2% vs 1.1% previously. Chinese equities have underperformed Japan, Taiwan, South Korea because of margin compression, subdued domestic demand, and thus less ability...
Activists Near Victory if $CCP
Big win for the activists in $HUM 💪🏻💪🏻👏👏👏 (held) Now we just need $CCP to make a binding bid with 50.1% minimum acceptances and It’s done Drew won’t give up but it won’t matter if $CCP gains control
Four Metrics Separate Truly Cheap Stocks From Value Traps
Someone on r/stocks asked "what's the best way to tell if a stock is actually cheap?" Quick framework I use: - P/E below sector average (not just "low P/E") - Revenue growing >10% annually - Insiders buying on open market - Debt under 3x EBITDA -...
China’s Oil Aid Drives Asian Pivot From US
My take in @FortuneMagazine on China’s DIPLOMATIC POSITIONING: “China is deploying its 1.4-billion-barrel strategic crude reserve to aid its Asian neighbors while the US is blocking the Strait of Hormuz.” Seoul, Tokyo, and Jakarta are PIVOTING AWAY from Uncle Sam. https://t.co/PLQmOFRWfy
Trump‑Xi Imagery Hints China Reopens to U
The expected images of @realDonaldTrump and Xi together may still send a signal within China that it’s more acceptable again to engage with U.S. businesses, said Michael Hart, @AmCham_China. “Since U.S. military actions earlier this year, Chinese officials have been...
Investors Shift Focus to Asian Equities for Next Rally
As the focus moves away from the Iran war, investors and strategists alike are looking for the next leg up in equities. Many are turning to Asia. https://t.co/6c0zWItqEk