Earn When Consensus Loses: +17bps Long/Short Gain
The Fam was flat in the Long Only and +17bps in the Long/Short Book today We like days like this. Save and make money when the consensus crowd is losing theirs https://t.co/QFJjbKycEg
State Tax Wars: Diverging Paths or Converging Trend?
Over the past few decades, this has largely played out along the lines of the states' predominant political ideologies, but I wonder how long this trend can continue. At some point, do states raising their taxes see enough of an...
China’s $100B/Month FX Buying Blocks Dollar Diversification
Me, in the Financial Times -- On the surge in China's intervention, and the impossibility of diversifying away from dollar assets/ Treasuries when the state banks are buying $100b a month in FX 1/ https://t.co/Pc78czuld9
Historic Shift: Growth to Value Gains Momentum
💫Historic Rotation From Growth-To-Value 💫The HALO Effect 💫THINGS OVER PAPER Continues 💫The Best Analyst You’ve Never Heard Of ;-) Open to all 😘 https://t.co/ktb2nCSe5S
Bessent: A Trader‑politician Unlike Typical Treasury Secret
Interesting on many levels. Bessent is much more of a trader (and yet also much more political) than most Treasury secretaries ... https://t.co/7m06uOU5eQ
Short‑term MA Crossover Signals Bullish Momentum
Ya find this Bullish? 30-min chart. The white dotted line is the 10-day ma. Red is the 5-day. Yellow is the 21-day. https://t.co/KzTUlYzfXp
Range-Bound Market Hides Ongoing Leader Implosions
The market continues to hold up in a range but under the surface, day after day, we see prior leaders implode. Not all of them, but it keeps on raining the losers. If it keeps on raining, the levee's gonna break.. https://t.co/pg576VMyL8
Palantir Valuation Halves; Investors Weigh Buying Opportunity
The Palantir bubble popped. The company’s valuation has nearly been cut in half, leaving it at a significant discount compared to last year. Is it a buy?
Widening Spreads Signal Potential Prolonged Market Shakeout
Truth: “If spreads keep widening and banks keep lagging, this is more than a one day shakeout. If they stabilize, this was the market resetting positioning and rotating and not the start of a whole new regime.”
Microsoft Chart Teaches Seasoned Traders Clear Sell Signals
$msft is a great lesson. U can probably look at the chart. If ur seasoned trader, U can see all the spots it gave u to sell, or reasons to stay out of the way. https://t.co/zAq6WwJhfi
Goldman: Stock Suffers Third‑largest Century‑wide Daily Drop
“.. the stock’s 3rd largest single day drawdown this century (2nd was covid, 1st was dot com bubble.)” - Goldman desk
More Trades Don’t Equal Better Long‑term Returns
A client showed me her previous advisor's quarterly report. 47 trades in three months. She thought that meant he was working hard for her. When I looked at her actual returns over 5 years, something didn't add up.
Home Builders Use Options, Paying 2‑3× Premium
The premium is a lot more than this The large home builders structure their contracts as options rather than outright purchase. 2-3X is not uncommon
Fortescue Bets on Green Iron Amid
Fortescue’s green iron bet in a €300 per tonne iron world #energysky -- via Renew Economy: https://t.co/o9SQlmpEPc https://t.co/oEuy12U2pf
AI Winners Will Be Infrastructure, Not Software
AI winners aren’t who you think. Dell’s margin shift changes the AI narrative. Infrastructure, not software, may drive the next leg of leadership. Most investors are looking the wrong way. Read this: https://t.co/nY4GbIKIfM @graniteshares @willrhind
AI Instantly Uncovers Price‑move Catalysts in Seconds
I just recorded a new @Deepvue Tutorial discussing one of our key AI updates🪄 Now traders can research catalysts and the context behind a gap or significant price move in seconds Here's how.... and it feels like magic 👇 https://t.co/meg4B1IrUQ
Risk‑Off Wave Hits Financials, Sets Stage for NVDA
We started the week in full risk-off mode. $XLF broke support near 51, $MSFT continues to deteriorate, and $SPX is back testing 6800. Meanwhile gold surged and Bitcoin broke down. I walk through financials, defensive rotation, and key levels ahead of $NVDA. Watch...
McLean, VA Holds DC Metro’s Highest Apartment Rents
The apartment building with the highest rents in the entire DC metro ... is in McLean, VA https://t.co/UfLko09g2S
Make Private Lenders Passive, Not Pursuing, for Funding
Raising private capital for your next deal is about keeping the partnership passive. If a private money lender has to chase you down for details, your chances of getting their money is slim to none.
Housing Market Rebounds: Listings, Sales Rise; Price Cuts Fall
🏘️The housing market finally got some relief this week as the country thawed out after weeks of winter storms. New listings jumped, inventory climbed 1.4% to over 700,000 single family homes, and pending sales came in 4.6% ahead of last year....
AMC's $10K Debt Revives Bankruptcy Risk
$AMC 10K firmly puts bankruptcy back on the table. To quote: In order to achieve net positive cash flows from operating activities, revenues will need to increase from current levels to levels at least in line with pre-COVID-19 revenues. However, there...
Companies Issue Equity Under Pressure,
$WHR. Typical. Corporate strategy has always been Issue equity when you have to NOT when you can. Stocks down 7% on a forced issuance. $ORCL same story still dumping ATM every day https://t.co/vIGKQDwhZB
SNDA Announces Major Merger and Massive PSU Grant
As a friend dm'd me, $SNDA just pulled the "Andrew Walker" special (big merger followed by a massive PSU grant with ambitious stock price versting targets) https://t.co/iEnOdITDX3
Bullish Rotation Holds; Tech Trouble Offset by Commodities
Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: 1. Bullish rotation remains in play. 2. Tech stocks still look troubled. 3. AI spillovers are helping (already bullish) commodities. 4. Newspaper stocks present a case-study in disruption. 5. Commodity stocks (as a group) look good. Overall, the US...
ThemesETFs Files 30 New 2x Single-Stock ETFs, Targeting Smaller Caps
More 2x single stock ETF filings from @ThemesETFs. 30 on this filing. Issuers going further down the market cap spectrum. https://t.co/jWescSJO9t
All‑Weather Portfolio Outperforms Thanks to Yellow Rock
Today was a solid day of relative outperformance for the all-weather portfolio thanks once again to our yellow rock. https://t.co/o0Q3fVP5ux
Industrial Housing Cuts Labor Costs in Pricey Cities
It's also bc site-built home construction is so labor intensive ... which means cities with high housing costs have high CONSTRUCTION costs That's exactly why @americanhousing is doing industrial manufacturing of high quality, non-combustible, beautiful, dense, attached housing We are bringing down...
Leverage Boosts Stock Volatility, Not Business Quality
"Financial leverage increases equity volatility, not business quality." Leverage doesn’t make a business better — it just makes the stock wilder. ⚠️📈 Financial leverage amplifies equity volatility. When debt is added to the capital structure, small changes in operating performance translate into...
Kurv Launches Income ETFs Targeting 2026 SpaceX, OpenAI IPOs
New: Kurv files options based income ETFs on a bunch of likely 2026 IPOs. SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic https://t.co/D7HkiQNfBo
USCF Launches Iron Ore Index Fund for Futures
New: @USCFInvestments files for a an Iron Ore Index Fund. Will invest in Iron order futures contracts. https://t.co/RHtnD2joQb
Avoid Shorting Illiquid Chinese Stocks Due to Manipulation
when you get involved in some random chinese stock you are exposing yourself to risk of coordinated manipulation. this is why for years we have cautioned our traders to not be short illiquid chinese stocks. the scale of coordination⬇️⬇️⬇️
JPM Beats NII Forecast, Anticipates Deposit Growth in 2026
$JPM just raised NII to $104.5B vs $102.9B expectation. Expenses in line. Expects retail deposit growth to resume in 2026 from underlying customer growth and a reduction in yield seeking behavior.
Box Spreads: Low‑cost Synthetic Loans Explained
In recent years, a new form of 'synthetic' lending has emerged as a potential alternative to margin loans or SBLOCs for short- and medium-term borrowing: The "box spread". https://t.co/xmNXcFkoUQ Kitces Nerd Ben Henry-Moreland shares the mechanics of box spreads, why the...
S&P’s Calm Mask Hides Software Slump, Rising Defaults
The S&P 500 looks calm, but look under the hood. Software stocks are DOWN ~30%. Defaults are CLIMBING. Private credit is AT RISK. https://t.co/qJPf95n11Z
BofA Survey Turns Ultra‑Bearish on Dollar, Go Long
The BofA fund manager survey has never been this bearish on the dollar. It is time to bite your lip and start being a lonely dollar long. I have a sample size of one here, arguably a sample size of...
Annual Returns Converge Across Correlations, Volatility Varies
I vibe coded a widget to show the idea of the blog post below. It simulates yield curve evolutions and equity market returns. Then it plots the distribution of annualized returns and volatilities over a given horizon using...
Stablecoin Rewards Undermine Community Bank Growth
Our savings yield for @bankonroger is 3.61 APY. I’m not worried about competition with stablecoin yields, I’m concerned how it robs community growth. Stablecoin funds gov’t debt while community banks fund community growth.
Iran's Inflation Hits 79.1%, World’s Second‑Highest
#IranWatch🇮🇷: Today, I measure Iran’s inflation at a PUNISHING 79.1%/yr. That's the world's SECOND HIGHEST INFLATION RATE. I remain the only reliable source of inflationary measures in Iran. https://t.co/Z869QfIwJT
AI Scare Triggers 6% Drop, Software Basket Down 33% YTD
Another day, another AI scare. A Citrini blog post titled “The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis” triggered another AI-driven selloff in US equities today. The Goldman Sachs Software At Risk Basket fell 6% today and is now down 33% year to...
Persisting Wrongly Turns Bad Situations Into Worse Ones
Leave with this --> Bad situation + continued effort in the wrong direction = mathematically guaranteed worse situation.
AI Surge Makes Software Competition Easier, Threatening Companies
“I’m more bullish on AI than I’ve ever been. And that’s exactly why I’m bearish on most software companies. Not because their customers will leave, but because their next thirty competitors just got a lot easier to build.”
Hims Beats EPS, Guides Revenue Above Estimates
HIMS Q4 2025 earnings: • Revenue $618M vs $617M Est. • EPS $0.08 vs $0.05 Est. • Gross Margin: 72% vs 74% Est. • Subscribers: 2.5M (+13% Y/Y) FY26 Guidance • Revenue $2.8B vs $2.7B Est.
SigmaLithium Forecasts 240k‑tonne Annual Output, 520k
.@SigmaLithium providing formal guidance just a few weeks after restarting mining under owner/operator model: ◦12 months annualized forward production: 240,000 tonnes ◦24 months annualized forward production: 520,000 tonnes $SGML 👇
FTSE250 Near Top Bollinger, Bullish EMAs Hold
#FTSE250 small Down Candle and Sideways. RSI 67.5 high but not Overbought. 13/21 day EMAs Bullish. Top Bollinger Band 23772. Midpoint Line 23510. Bottom Band 23246.
DAX Holds Near Resistance, Bullish EMAs Signal Potential Upside
#DAX small Down Candle and Sideways. RSI 55.5 bit off Neutral. 13/21 day EMAs Bullish. Top Bollinger Band 25304. Midpoint Line 25000. Bottom Band 24688.
S&P 500 Tests 100‑Day Support, Weekly Bearish Outlook
$SPX - We had a bearish reversal after hitting the 20 day MA on Friday but found support at the 100 day MA for the 3rd time in February. Closing below the 100 day MA may turn the weekly trend...
Essential Pitch Deck Elements for Real Estate Deals
Pitch decks are key: This is a presentation of all the details on the deal. It should include at least: 1) The Property 2) Scope of Work 3) Exit Strategy 4) Terms 5) Timeline 6) Comps 7) Title Company/ Real Estate Attorney 8) Recent Deal History There’s way...
Global Imbalances Drive International Payments Problems
A bit more on section 122 -- Adam Tooze noted that the simplest read of "international payments problems" is a problem of global imbalances manifest by large surpluses and large (U.S.) deficits 1/ https://t.co/86nmn36jP7
RBA Holds Quarterly Trimmed Mean, Shorten AUD Duration
RBA probes monthly inflation gauges but sticks to quarterly trimmed mean; policy shift distant, volatile. Risk: noisy swings. Trade: shorten AUD duration until monthly series confirms trend. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Banks May Forge Bearish Reversal Wick This Month
Banks could be creating a rather large bearish reversal wick this month. Will be interesting to see what this pattern looks like, at the end of the month. It could be an important message to the broad markets. $XLF $BKX $SPY