Huge 25x BTC Short Faces Liquidation at $1.4k Rise
THIS IS INSANE: Somebody just opened a $25,349,000 BTC short position with 25x leverage. If Bitcoin’s price goes up just $1,400 they will get completely wiped out. https://t.co/BnOsSCjGQd
Hedgeye Signals Bond Volatility Breakout, Review at 9 AM
Big @Hedgeye TREND Breakout for Bond Market Vol that I'll review on The Macro Show 9AM https://t.co/niZaSORuLS
Risky Nifty PE Trade Hinges on IV Above 20
Holding Nifty 5 May 24150 PE, current around 200. If IV stays above 20, looking for 293...294 zone...But honestly, this is a risky one. Needs both price follow through and IV support. Let’s see how it plays out. #Nifty50 #OptionTrading
Hedging IBIT with MSTR to Target $83,999 BTC
Almost time to hedge up my long $IBIT with short $MSTR. Figure $STRC is almost full of dividends and will be sold at par allowing the common to breath from ATM and MNAv premium expand while the Strc selling...
Plan Your Trade: Set SL, TP, Risk Before Execution
You keep moving stop loss cutting winners and overtrading. That’s why you’re not profitable. Entry stop loss take profit and risk management should be set before the trade. No plan no trade. This is how you fix execution and become consistent in...
Apple Shows Minimal Downside, Safe Long-Term Bet
"It feels like it has very little downside... certainly the catalyst for that, the earnings has come and gone, but it does not feel as though this is a risky placeholder on the long side." @CarterBWorth & Dan discuss $AAPL on...
Bot Flips $900k eBay Calls, Profit Doubles Overnight
On Friday some lucky fella bot $900k worth of $EBAY May 15th $106 calls for ~$3. Friday night deal announced. Today those are worth ~$6. https://t.co/d2TrOCJCuT
Middle East Tensions Prompt $36M Mag 7 Put Surge
$36M Puts on Mag 7 today This morning, news of tensions in the Middle East sent $SPY down a few dollars.
High Volatility Renders Short-Term
4 hour across gasoline, $CL_F , brent and the 2 year yield. Again most either bought late, faded early or just are using chart time frames that won't help much when vol is this high for this long. https://t.co/Ie8cBLcCWt
Oil Futures Hit New Highs, Expect $90+ Prices
What does the oil market think? Both the July (orange) and December (blue) Brent Crude Oil Futures Contracts are at new highs. The December contract is now signaling that the market expects crude oil to be above $90 for the next seven...
Vol‑control Exposure Climbs yet Lags S&P Highs
Vol-control implied notional equity exposure is rising off the lows but still well below the $225-300B range from late 2024 and early 2025. The S&P 500 is at highs. Vol-control exposure is not.
Palantir Poised for $26 Swing Before Earnings
Live look at $PLTR ahead of earnings. Option's expiring mid-June project a (+/-) $26 move following the report.
Option Market Still Signals Limbo, Updated Call Confirms
Playing The Limbo Bigger picture, I updated my call that option market is still calling for… https://t.co/KnZYGLpxLL
Avoid Gap Fill Losses: Use Puts for Protection
Long ago, when I was working at HP, when my colleagues did this, they were routinely stopped out, often *below* their stop limit. Most stop loss orders become market orders when triggered, so if the price has gapped below...
LEAPS Contracts Make 25‑year‑old Feel Ancient
These LEAPS contracts making me feel old at 25 😭 You’re telling me I can get a $300 $NVDA CONTRACT FOR 12/15/2028. I’ll be 28 by then but sounds like a good investment to me.
Exited Calls as SPY Hit $720 Resistance, Momentum Slowed
Right back to where we started at that $720 MVC on $SPY. Momentum slowed on the upside as we approached $722-$723, which gave me a good opportunity to exit those calls. Analysis from earlier still stands.
Traders Price ~9% Swing for PLTR Earnings
$PLTR implied move Options traders are pricing in an expected move of roughly ±8.6% to ±9.8% for the earnings reaction (typically measured to the next options expiration, e.g., May 8 weekly).
Only Trade When the Precise Signal Appears
Wait until you see the specific signal they look for... #optionstrading #vix #tradingstrategy #investingforbeginners #stockmarket
Captured 55% Gain on SPY Calls
Closed out my Calls on $SPY for 55% just now. Since the open, we had that elevated positive exposure paired with clear Call divergence on $SPY.
Gas Price Forecast Jumps to $5.40, up $1
Top tick in gas prices this year? $5.40 per @Kalshi ... that's up a buck from the current level https://t.co/6iN7z5X7oB https://t.co/tl2oanX6LG
Option Volume Jumps
From @Cboe: Friday's option volume of 78.2M contracts was 14% above recent average levels, with calls leading puts 3 to 2. Among the 500 most liquid single stocks, 30D IV was higher for 98 and lower for 354. @tastyliveshow
ETF Firms Seek SEC Approval for Prediction Market Funds
Amazed to learn that ETF companies have filed for prediction market ETFs for yes/no events like election results. They would be derivatives tied to platforms like Kalshi. SEC is reviewing and asked for more info today.
Mean Reversion Strategies Deliver Double‑Digit Returns Since Inception
Mean reversion (MR) for subs. There are new signals. Since inception: ✔️#ES_F bonus MR +44.7% (May 21, 2025) YTD +15.7% ✔️Bonus MR+Momentum: +4.4% (October 9, 2025. YTD +4.3% ✔️Main MR strategy: +38% (June 27, 2023) YTD +5.2% 🔽Link in profile (Daily mean reversion) 🔽...
Soybean Net-Longs Triple Corn, Heightening Liquidation Risk
Following the Money, Soybeans Lead Risk vs. Reward Speculator net-longs in soybeans dwarf those in corn and wheat, indicating an epicenter for position liquidation risks in grains. The dollar value of hedge fund net-longs in soybean complex futures is about 3x...
Wheat Futures Hit 2‑Year High on Record Speculator Net‑Long
Bouncing Wheat, Long Specs and Reversion Risks The benchmark wheat future has risen to its highest price in about two years on the back of grain speculators being the most net-long in four years -- and it's the time of year...
Fermat Backs ADB's Inaugural Catastrophe Bonds for Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan
Fermat Capital Management has invested in the Asian Development Bank’s first-ever catastrophe bonds, designed to shield Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan against specific types of natural disasters https://t.co/JQ1cwhqjzw
Kraken Acquires Bitnomial, Unlocking Full US Crypto Derivatives
Kraken just bought Bitnomial. This gives them full U.S. crypto derivatives trading that includes futures, options, and more on a regulated exchange. A major new on-ramp for institutions. https://t.co/gV87zv8yG4
Buffett's GS Preferred Deal Outshines AIG Collapse
The funnier thing about this is ~8 short years later $AIG would implode while Buffett would get a 10% preferred off of $GS with a 10% call premium and warrants that instantly went into the money the minute the deal...
Seeking Put‑Selling Ideas for $40K Cash
Robinhood ATH, I have 40k in cash what should I sell puts on give me ideas.
Sell Volatility only when the Risk Is Properly Compensated
Selling volatility gets a bad reputation. But most people confuse it with doing something that exposes you to terminal risk. Although often used synonymously, selling uncapped convexity with an extreme tail nature to it is different than selling vol. There is...
Upcoming Earnings: Optimized Options Strategies for PLTR, SHOP, AMD
Earnings In-Depth Previews w/ Optimized Options Trade Strategies week ahead in PLTR $SHOP $AMD $XYZ $COIN https://t.co/vTkXOj9O39
Fundamentals and Options Beat 0‑DTE Day Trading
The older, wiser, more experienced you get with markets, the more you realize true wealth is made via fundamental research, finding great companies and staying invested in them while staying current via quarterly calls to ensure you still want to...
BSE Surpasses NSE in April F&O Market Share
BSE Ltd has overtaken National Stock Exchange of India in the F&O segment. In April, BSE gained 55.4% market share, while NSE dropped to 44.6%.
20% ETH Surge Could Wipe Out $8B Shorts
🚨 INSANITY 🚨 If $ETH pumps just 20%, over $8 BILLION in shorts could be liquidated. Massive short positions are building on Ethereum right now. Stay cautious - extreme volatility is coming. https://t.co/RRg89AogTm
Berkshire Sees Market as Casino, Cash Ready to Strike
Warren Buffett at Berkshire’s 2026 AGM talking about waiting to deploy its $397B cash pile: “I’ve compared the markets to the church with a casino attached. People can move between the church and the casino. The casino has gotten very attractive...
Swap Lines Make Recipients Fed Branches Without Voting Power
The best way to think about USD Swap Lines is that they basically transform the recipient into a new regional branch of the Federal Reserve or US Treasury but the new branch doesn't have any voting rights with regards to...
Brent Climbs to $108.17, Monday May See Drop
Brent futures price rose $2.82 from $105.33 to $108.17 week ending May 1 Downward price pressure is likely on Monday based on 12-month spreads #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket https://t.co/rTch11BKet
Leveraged Treasuries Offer Minimal Return, Low Sharpe
With fixed pay legs of 10 Year swaps recieving 3.93% with swap spread at 43bp with Kim term premium at 65bp Leveraged bond buyers only get 23bp of expected return vs cash. This on a 5% vol item. Sharpe Ratio...
Patience Pays: Unusual May 8 Options Reveal Market Signals
Hawk Options Analytics platform development continues...long process but I am not the kind of person to just push out something that is not ready If you don't have time to do i right, when will you have time to do it...
BTC Fills CME Gaps 95% of the Time
Historically, #BTC has filled its CME gap in 95% of cases. Will it close it this time? https://t.co/tg7Z90X73t
Stress‑Test Your Indicators Before Using Real Capital
When and how much should you actually trust your indicators? 📉 Watch this $ES session on the updated @tradesviz simulator w/ MACD. Would you have taken this trade? 🤔 Was the bracket small, or was the setup just flawed? https://t.co/Tv7Ihsxugk lets you test...
Aggressive 1x2 Put Spread Targets 5.75% Yield
Added a pretty big 1x2 put spread on ZB today. 84 days Max payout at 30 year yield of 5.20. B/e of 5.6 yield and will stop at 5.75 yield. Overheat mostly covered.
Spot Oil Prices Outpace Futures as Timing Drives Gap
"WTI and Brent are near $100, but physical crude is way higher." Isn't that just a timing issue? Real-time oil is obviously going to be way more expensive than oil contracts expiring in 1-2 months.
BTC Futures Fill Gap, Potential Bull Trap Ahead
🚨 EVERYTHING IS GOING ACCORDING TO PLAN 🚨 $BTC CME Futures are rapidly moving to fill the upper gap After that, the market could form a bull trap. Stay cautious. https://t.co/Nj6SLWzoFE
Dealers Short Gamma as SPX Rises 2.3%
What did I write Wed AM to warn clients: "Dealers enter aggressive short gamma should the index move 2-4% higher. via GS" And what has SPX moved since Wed low? +2.3%. Careful late bulls...
VIX Under 20 Signals Low Volatility and Low Risk
As long as the $VIX remains safely below 20, the options market is telling us: low volatility = low uncertainty = low fear = low risk https://t.co/GyE0OQZLAM
SPY Likely to Trade Flat Around $722
Gamma exposure update for $SPY: $722 is currently the MVC, we're still in this $720-$725 range. I am thinking we chop around $722 and stay within this range. Not forcing anything else today, expecting volume to die out.
Use ADR to Trade Within Realistic Daily Ranges
Beginner traders chase moves with no limits… profitable traders know how far price can realistically go. 📈 That’s where Average Daily Range (ADR) gives you a real edge. ADR shows you how much a stock or index typically moves in a day. If...
Tech Rally Defies Stagflation as ISM Stalls
Basically, the call wall (SPX $7200 was ceiling/now floor) keeps getting rolled up as AI/Tech/Memory names beat, while the real economy enters stagflation. US APRIL ISM MANUFACTURING INDEX UNCHANGED AT 52.7; EST. 53.2 US ISM MFG PRICES RISE TO 84.6, HIGHEST SINCE...
UST Auctions Trigger Record MOVE Spike and VIX Surge
The Great MOVE UST Volatility Crash of April 2026: Blue = MOVE; red = VIX; green = Oil Mar 24, 25, 26 = 3 straight ugly UST auctions Mar 26 = MOVE hits 115 (near dysfunctional levels) Mar 27 = MOVE & VIX peak...